SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Dynamic Risk Assessment”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA CARA Prelaunch Analysis and Process

NASA implemented an official Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8079.1 in June 2023, establishing the minimum collision avoidance requirements and associated operational protocols for NASA space flight programs, projects, and spacecraft to protect the space environment by reducing the risk of collision to an acceptable level. Part of the requirement employs a two-fold approach to analyze the satellite design process with conjunction assessment and risk mitigation in mind, during the pre-launch process, led by the Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Program for non-Human Space Flight (HSF) Missions. This presentation outlines CARA coordination with missions, informed by the NPR, that spans early mission development to operations. CARA is an Agency-level resource that provides support to all NASA non-HSF missions. CARA protects the orbital environment from collision between NASA non-HSF missions and other tracked on-orbit objects. During the pre-formulation and formulation phases, NASA missions undergo a series of conjunction assessment analyses captured in the Orbital Collision Avoidance Plan (OCAP) prior to transitioning to the implementation phase (typically at the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) or equivalent). The OCAP analyses consist of a thorough review of the spacecraft(s) orbit selection and placement, deployment, cataloguing performance, trackability, ephemeris generation, conjunction mitigation options, autonomous maneuvering, and risk assessment parameters which are performed by a dedicated CARA Analysis Team. The results of these analyses, CARA’s formal recommendations, and the mission’s methods for implementing them, are documented in the OCAP. The intent of engaging in this process so early in the mission design phase, is to ensure that conjunction assessment is considered from the outset, thus mitigating costly design changes and operational risks down the road. NASA missions are also required to coordinate their operational processes and conjunction mitigation procedures with CARA in a Conjunction Assessment Operations Implementation Agreement (CAOIA). The aim of this process is to document the conjunction assessment screening process, conjunction risk assessment parameters, conjunction mitigation steps, flight dynamics operations concepts and maneuvers, and the communication and coordination process between the mission’s project manager and CARA. The intent of the CAOIA document is for it to be completed iteratively, and as missions update these elements, corresponding changes are made in the CAOIA. With this process in place, the engagement and coordination between the missions and CARA from early in the design process into mission operations, helps to ensure that missions not only have a robust conjunction assessment concept of operations to reduce conjunction risk for space sustainability, but are also able to achieve their science goals and have a successful mission.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRS2013

Space Weather Impacts to Conjunction Assessment: A NASA Robotic Orbital Safety Perspective

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognizes the risk of on-orbit collisions from other satellites and debris objects and has instituted a process to identify and react to close approaches. The charter of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) task is to protect NASA robotic (unmanned) assets from threats posed by other space objects. Monitoring for potential collisions requires formulating close-approach predictions a week or more in the future to determine analyze, and respond to orbital conjunction events of interest. These predictions require propagation of the latest state vector and covariance assuming a predicted atmospheric density and ballistic coefficient. Any differences between the predicted drag used for propagation and the actual drag experienced by the space objects can potentially affect the conjunction event. Therefore, the space environment itself, in particular how space weather impacts atmospheric drag, is an essential element to understand in order effectively to assess the risk of conjunction events. The focus of this research is to develop a better understanding of the impact of space weather on conjunction assessment activities: both accurately determining the current risk and assessing how that risk may change under dynamic space weather conditions. We are engaged in a data-- ]mining exercise to corroborate whether or not observed changes in a conjunction event's dynamics appear consistent with space weather changes and are interested in developing a framework to respond appropriately to uncertainty in predicted space weather. In particular, we use historical conjunction event data products to search for dynamical effects on satellite orbits from changing atmospheric drag. Increased drag is expected to lower the satellite specific energy and will result in the satellite's being 'later' than expected, which can affect satellite conjunctions in a number of ways depending on the two satellites' orbits and the geometry of the conjunction. These satellite time offsets can form the basis of a new technique under development to determine whether space weather perturbations, such as coronal mass ejections, are likely to increase, decrease, or have a neutral effect on the collision risk due to a particular close approach.

Ghrist, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing the Effect of Spaceflight on the Propensity for Astronauts to Develop Disk Herniation

A previous study [1] reported the instantaneous risk of developing a Herniated Nucleus Pulosus (HNP) was higher in astronauts who had flown at least one mission, as compared with those in the corps who had not yet flown. However, the study only analyzed time to HNP after the first mission (if any) and did not account for the possible effects of multiple missions. While many HNP's occurred well into astronauts' careers or in some cases years after retirement, the higher incidence of HNPs relatively soon after completion of space missions appears to indicate that spaceflight may lead to an increased risk of HNP. The purpose of this study was to support the Human System Risk Boards assessment of back pain, assess the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, and update the dataset analyzed which contained data through December 31, 2006.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing the Effect of Spaceflight on the Propensity for Astronauts to Develop Disc Herniation

A previous study reported that the instantaneous risk of developing a Herniated Nucleus Pulposus (HNP) was higher in astronauts who had flown at least one mission, as compared with those in the corps who had not yet flown. However, the study only analyzed time to HNP after the first mission (if any) and did not account for the possible effects of multiple missions. While many HNPs occurred well into astronauts' careers or in somecases years after retirement, the higher incidence of HNPs relatively soon after completion of space missions appears to indicate that spaceflight may lead to an increased risk of HNP. In addition, when an HNP occurs after spaceflight, is it related to previous spaceflight exposure? The purpose of this study was to investigate whether multiple missions, sex, age, vehicle landing dynamics, and flight duration affect the risk of developing an HNP usinga competing risks model. The outcome of the study will inform the Human System Risk Board assessment of back pain, inform the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, and update the previous dataset, which contained events up to December 31, 2006.

Feiveson, A.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of the Mosquito Community in Central Oklahoma

Mosquitoes (Culicidae) are ubiquitous flying insects that function as vectors for several viruses that cause disease in humans. Mosquito abundance and diversity are influenced by landscape features and environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation and vary across seasons and years. The range and phenology of many mosquito species that vector viruses relevant to human health are changing. We sampled mosquito communities in central Oklahoma for four years at thirteen sites, collecting over 25,000 mosquitoes; among these, we identified 27 different species, including several that transmit human pathogens and were collected in suburban backyards. Community composition differed across the landscape and changed from early season to late season and year to year. This effort to describe mosquito communities in Oklahoma is a first step toward assessing and predicting arbovirus risk, an ongoing and dynamic public health challenge.

David Hoekman↗

NASA NTRS2015

Collision Avoidance Short Course: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis - NASA Robotic CARA: Theory - Part I:

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest growing area in space situational awareness and protection with military, civil and commercial satellite owner-operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to avoid the avoidable - namely collisions between high value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunctions assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory. Joint Space Operations Center (JsPOC) conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

Conjunction↗

NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Long Cable Deployments During Martian Touchdown: Lessons Learned

The launch of NASA/JPL's next generation Mars rover is planned for the fall of 2011. The landing scheme chosen for this rover represents a step forward in unmanned payload delivery. The rover will be lowered from a rocket powered descent stage and then placed onto the surface while hanging from three bridles. During this touchdown event, the communication between the rover and descent stage is maintained by an electrical umbilical cable which is deployed in parallel with the structural bridles. During the development of the deployment device for the electrical umbilical, many obstacles were identified and overcome. Many of these challenges were due in large part to the helical nature of the packing geometry of the umbilical cable. And although none of these issues resulted in the failure of the design, they increased both development and assembly time. Many of the issues and some of the benefits of a helical deployment were not immediately apparent during the trade studies carried out during the deployment selection process. Tests were conducted upon completion of the device in order to characterize both the deployment and separation characteristics of the cable. Extraction loads were needed for inputs to touchdown models and separation dynamics were required to assess cable-rover recontact risk. Understanding the pros and cons surrounding the deployment of a helically packed cable would most certainly influence the outcome of future trade studies surrounding the selection of cable deployment options.

Mars Science Lab↗

NASA NTRS2014

Humic Acid Complexation of Th, Hf and Zr in Ligand Competition Experiments: Metal Loading and Ph Effects

The mobility of metals in soils and subsurface aquifers is strongly affected by sorption and complexation with dissolved organic matter, oxyhydroxides, clay minerals, and inorganic ligands. Humic substances (HS) are organic macromolecules with functional groups that have a strong affinity for binding metals, such as actinides. Thorium, often studied as an analog for tetravalent actinides, has also been shown to strongly associate with dissolved and colloidal HS in natural waters. The effects of HS on the mobilization dynamics of actinides are of particular interest in risk assessment of nuclear waste repositories. Here, we present conditional equilibrium binding constants (Kc, MHA) of thorium, hafnium, and zirconium-humic acid complexes from ligand competition experiments using capillary electrophoresis coupled with ICP-MS (CE- ICP-MS). Equilibrium dialysis ligand exchange (EDLE) experiments using size exclusion via a 1000 Damembrane were also performed to validate the CE-ICP-MS analysis. Experiments were performed at pH 3.5-7 with solutions containing one tetravalent metal (Th, Hf, or Zr), Elliot soil humic acid (EHA) or Pahokee peat humic acid (PHA), and EDTA. CE-ICP-MS and EDLE experiments yielded nearly identical binding constants for the metal- humic acid complexes, indicating that both methods are appropriate for examining metal speciation at conditions lower than neutral pH. We find that tetravalent metals form strong complexes with humic acids, with Kc, MHA several orders of magnitude above REE-humic complexes. Experiments were conducted at a range of dissolved HA concentrations to examine the effect of [HA]/[Th] molar ratio on Kc, MHA. At low metal loading conditions (i.e. elevated [HA]/[Th] ratios) the ThHA binding constant reached values that were not affected by the relative abundance of humic acid and thorium. The importance of [HA]/[Th] molar ratios on constraining the equilibrium of MHA complexation is apparent when our estimated Kc, MHA values attained at very low metal loading conditions are compared to existing literature data. Overall, experimental data suggest that the tetravalent transition metal/-actinide-humic acid complexation is important over a wide range of pH values, including mildly acidic conditions, and thus, these complexes should be included in speciation models.

humic acid↗

NASA NTRS1992

Buffet test in the National Transonic Facility

A buffet test of a commercial transport model was accomplished in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. This aeroelastic test was unprecedented for this wind tunnel and posed a high risk to the facility. This paper presents the test results from a structural dynamics and aeroelastic response point of view and describes the activities required for the safety analysis and risk assessment. The test was conducted in the same manner as a flutter test and employed onboard dynamic instrumentation, real time dynamic data monitoring, automatic, and manual tunnel interlock systems for protecting the model. The procedures and test techniques employed for this test are expected to serve as the basis for future aeroelastic testing in the National Transonic Facility. This test program was a cooperative effort between the Boeing Commercial Airplane Company and the NASA Langley Research Center.

Young, Clarence P., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Draper Station Analysis Tool

Draper Station Analysis Tool (DSAT) is a computer program, built on commercially available software, for simulating and analyzing complex dynamic systems. Heretofore used in designing and verifying guidance, navigation, and control systems of the International Space Station, DSAT has a modular architecture that lends itself to modification for application to spacecraft or terrestrial systems. DSAT consists of user-interface, data-structures, simulation-generation, analysis, plotting, documentation, and help components. DSAT automates the construction of simulations and the process of analysis. DSAT provides a graphical user interface (GUI), plus a Web-enabled interface, similar to the GUI, that enables a remotely located user to gain access to the full capabilities of DSAT via the Internet and Webbrowser software. Data structures are used to define the GUI, the Web-enabled interface, simulations, and analyses. Three data structures define the type of analysis to be performed: closed-loop simulation, frequency response, and/or stability margins. DSAT can be executed on almost any workstation, desktop, or laptop computer. DSAT provides better than an order of magnitude improvement in cost, schedule, and risk assessment for simulation based design and verification of complex dynamic systems.

Bedrossian, Nazareth↗

NASA NTRS1992

Buffet test in the National Transonic Facility

Young, Clarence P., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Dynamic Modeling of Ascent Abort Scenarios for Crewed Launches

For the last 30 years, the United States' human space program has been focused on low Earth orbit exploration and operations with the Space Shuttle and International Space Station programs. After over 40 years, the U.S. is again working to return humans beyond Earth orbit. To do so, NASA is developing a new launch vehicle and spacecraft to provide this capability. The launch vehicle is referred to as the Space Launch System (SLS) and the spacecraft is called Orion. The new launch system is being developed with an abort system that will enable the crew to escape launch failures that would otherwise be catastrophic as well as probabilistic design requirements set for probability of loss of crew (LOC) and loss of mission (LOM). In order to optimize the risk associated with designing this new launch system, as well as verifying the associated requirements, NASA has developed a comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the integrated ascent phase of the mission that includes the launch vehicle, spacecraft and ground launch facilities. Given the dynamic nature of rocket launches and the potential for things to go wrong, developing a PRA to assess the risk can be a very challenging effort. Prior to launch and after the crew has boarded the spacecraft, the risk exposure time can be on the order of three hours. During this time, events may initiate from either the spacecraft, the launch vehicle, or the ground systems, thus requiring an emergency egress from the spacecraft to a safe ground location or a pad abort via the spacecraft's launch abort system. Following launch, again either the spacecraft or the launch vehicle can initiate the need for the crew to abort the mission and return home. Obviously, there are thousands of scenarios whose outcome depends on when the abort is initiated during ascent and how the abort is performed. This includes modeling the risk associated with explosions and benign system failures that require aborting a spacecraft under very dynamic conditions, particularly in the lower atmosphere, and returning the crew home safely. This paper will provide an overview of the PRA model that has been developed of this new launch system, including some of the challenges that are associated with this effort.

Bigler, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2015

Dynamic Modeling of Ascent Abort Scenarios for Crewed Launches

For the last 30 years, the United States's human space program has been focused on low Earth orbit exploration and operations with the Space Shuttle and International Space Station programs. After nearly 50 years, the U.S. is again working to return humans beyond Earth orbit. To do so, NASA is developing a new launch vehicle and spacecraft to provide this capability. The launch vehicle is referred to as the Space Launch System (SLS) and the spacecraft is called Orion. The new launch system is being developed with an abort system that will enable the crew to escape launch failures that would otherwise be catastrophic as well as probabilistic design requirements set for probability of loss of crew (LOC) and loss of mission (LOM). In order to optimize the risk associated with designing this new launch system, as well as verifying the associated requirements, NASA has developed a comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the integrated ascent phase of the mission that includes the launch vehicle, spacecraft and ground launch facilities. Given the dynamic nature of rocket launches and the potential for things to go wrong, developing a PRA to assess the risk can be a very challenging effort. Prior to launch and after the crew has boarded the spacecraft, the risk exposure time can be on the order of three hours. During this time, events may initiate from either of the spacecraft, the launch vehicle, or the ground systems, thus requiring an emergency egress from the spacecraft to a safe ground location or a pad abort via the spacecraft's launch abort system. Following launch, again either the spacecraft or the launch vehicle can initiate the need for the crew to abort the mission and return to the home. Obviously, there are thousands of scenarios whose outcome depends on when the abort is initiated during ascent as to how the abort is performed. This includes modeling the risk associated with explosions and benign system failures that require aborting a spacecraft under very dynamic conditions, particularly in the lower atmosphere, and returning the crew home safely. This paper will provide an overview of the PRA model that has been developed of this new launch system, including some of the challenges that are associated with this effort. Key Words: PRA, space launches, human space program, ascent abort, spacecraft, launch vehicles

Bigler, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Effect of Spaceflight on the Propensity for Astronauts to Develop Disk Herniation

BACKGROUND: A previous study [1] reported that the instantaneous risk of developing a Herniated Nucleus Pulposus (HNP) was higher in astronauts who had flown at least one mission, as compared with those in the corps who had not yet flown. However, the study only analyzed time to HNP after the first mission (if any) and did not account for the possible effects of multiple missions. While many HNP's occurred well into astronauts' careers or in some cases years after retirement, the higher incidence of HNPs relatively soon after completion of space missions appears to indicate that spaceflight may lead to an increased risk of HNP. The purpose of this study was to support the Human System Risk Board assessment of back pain, evaluate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, and update the previous dataset which contained events up to December 31, 2006. METHODS: Data was queried from the electronic medical record and provided by the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health. The data included all 330 United States astronauts from 1959 through February 2014. Cases were confirmed by Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computerized Tomography, Myelography, operative findings, or through clinical confirmation with a neurologist or neurosurgeon. In this analysis, astronauts who had an HNP at selection into the corps or had an HNP diagnosis prior to their first flight were excluded. The statistical challenges in using the available data to separate effects of spaceflight from those associated with general astronaut training and lifestyle on propensity to develop HNPs are many. The primary outcome is reported date of first HNP (if any), which at best is only an approximation to the actual time of occurrence. To properly analyze this data with a survival analysis model, one must also know the "exposure" time - i.e. how long each astronaut has been at risk for developing an HNP. If an HNP is reported soon after a mission, is it mission caused or general? If the former, exposure time should be counted from the time of landing (assuming the risk of HNP occurring during a mission is zero). If the latter, exposure time should be counted from the time of selection; however we can't directly know which one to use. In our analysis we take both of these possibilities into account with a competing risks model, wherein two distinct stochastic processes are going on: TG = time to HNP (general) and TS = time to HNP (spaceflight). Under this type of model, whichever of these occurs first is what we observe; in other words we don't observe TG or TS, only min(TG, TS). Here, we parameterized the model in terms of separate Weibull hazard functions for each process and estimated all parameters using maximum likelihood. In addition, we allowed for a "cured fraction" - i.e. the possibility that some astronauts may never develop an HNP. RESULTS: Results will include a depiction of the competing hazard functions as well as a probability curve for the relative likelihood that an HNP reported at a given time after a mission is actually mission caused. Other factors, such as dwell time in microgravity and vehicle landing environment will be explored. An overall assessment as to whether spaceflight truly exacerbates HNP risk will be made.

Feiveson, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Introducing new technologies into Space Station subsystems

A new systems engineering technology has been developed and applied to Shuttle processing. The new engineering approach emphasizes the identification, quantitative assessment, and management of system performance and risk related to the dynamic nature of requirements, technology, and operational concepts. The Space Shuttle Tile Automation System is described as an example of the first application of the new engineering technology. Lessons learned from the Shuttle processing experience are examined, and concepts are presented which are applicable to the design and development of the Space Station Freedom.

Wiskerchen, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Collaborative Communications Between a Human and a Resilient Safety Support System

Successful introductory UAM integration into the NAS will be contingent on resilient safety systems that support reduced-crew flight operations. In this paper, we present a system that performs three functions: 1) monitors an operator’s physiological state; 2) assesses when the operator is experiencing anomalous states; and 3) mitigates risks by a combination of dynamic, context-based unilateral or collaborative dynamic function allocation of operational tasks. The monitoring process receives high data-rate sensor values from eye-tracking and electrocardiogram sensors. The assessment process takes these values and performs a classification that was developed using machine learning algorithms. The mitigation process invokes a collaboration protocol called DFACC to which, based on context, performs vehicle operations that the operator would otherwise routinely execute. This system has been demonstrated in a UAM flight simulator for an operator incapacitation scenario. The methods and initial results as well as relevant UAM and AAM scenarios will be described.

Advanced Air Mobility,↗

NASA NTRS2021

Collaborative Communications Between A Human and A Resilient Safety Support System

Successful introductory UAM integration into the NAS will be contingent on resilient safety systems that support reduced-crew flight operations. In this paper, we present a system that performs three functions: 1) monitors an operator’s physiological state; 2) assesses when the operator is experiencing anomalous states; and 3) mitigates risks by a combination of dynamic, context-based unilateral or collaborative dynamic function allocation of operational tasks. The monitoring process receives high data-rate sensor values from eye-tracking and electrocardiogram sensors. The assessment process takes these values and performs a classification that was developed using machine learning algorithms. The mitigation process invokes a collaboration protocol called DFACCto which, based on context, performs vehicle operations that the operator would otherwise routinely execute. This system has been demonstrated in a UAM flight simulator for an operator incapacitation scenario. The methods and initial results as well as relevant UAM and AAM scenarios will be described.

Advanced air mobility↗