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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring Impacts to COVID-19 Herd Immunity Thresholds Under Demographic Heterogeneity that Lowers Vaccine Effectiveness

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe health, economic, and societal impacts across the globe. Although highly efficacious vaccines were developed at an unprecedented rate, the heterogeneity in vaccinated populations has reduced the ability to achieve herd immunity. Specifically, as of Spring 2022, the 0–4 year-old population is still unable to be vaccinated and vaccination rates across 5-11 year olds are low. Additionally, vaccine hesitancy for older populations has further stalled efforts to reach herd immunity thresholds. This heterogeneous vaccine landscape increases the challenge of anticipating disease spread in a population. We developed an age-structured Susceptible-InfectiousRecovered-type mathematical model to investigate the impacts of unvaccinated subpopulations on herd immunity. The model considers two types of undervaccination - age-related and behaviorrelated - by incorporating four age groups based on available FDA-approved vaccines. The model accounts for two different types of vaccines, mRNA (e.g., Pfizer, Moderna) and vector (e.g., Johnson and Johnson), as well as their effectiveness. Our goal is to analyze different scenarios to quantify which subpopulations and vaccine characteristics (e.g., rate or efficacy) most impact infection levels in the United States, using the state of New Mexico as an example.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Building a framework to genetically characterize “feather spots” and understand demographic impacts of solar energy sites on migratory bird populations

The lack of data on the impact of utility-scale solar facilities on avian species and populations adds to the cost of siting and operation. As much as 32 percent of the avian biological material (feathers and carcasses) recovered from solar facilities remain unidentified, because they often take the form of “feather spots”. Feather spots are remains of impacted animals that can be separated into two broad categories: 1) those remains that may be visually identified to a species, or 2) those that cannot be visually identified to a species due to degradation from the environment and/or scavenger activity (listed as “unknown”). Even when feather spots can be identified to species, they cannot be visually assigned to particular breeding populations. In some cases, it is unknown whether multiple feather spots represent single or multiple individuals. This project’s objectives were to: 1. Use a developed, genetic-based technique to identify and determine the species, population of origin, and number of individuals found in feather spots recovered from solar facilities. 2. Implement collected data and resulting analyses to develop a publicly accessible web-based decision-making tool that can be used by the solar industry, regulators and other stakeholders to inform siting, mitigation, and conservation management efforts. 3. Establish a not-for-profit fee-for-service center at UCLA to ensure collection and identification of feather spots continue after the project period of performance. During the Project Period, we proposed to establish a pipeline for collecting, transporting, and storing of avian biological material collected at solar facilities and the collection and identification of feather spots to species and individual. We proposed the development of a genetic-based framework that would recover viable DNA from feather spots, amplify this DNA (i.e., make millions of copies of the original DNA), and use it to match the resulting sequences to a national database of known species of birds. The result would be the identification of feathers spots that were previously unidentified, and the incorporation of these samples into a larger database that included all samples recovered from solar facilities. The resulting report (below) details the result of this work and its alignment with proposed activities. We proposed the use of the data collected to assess the comparative risk to specific species or populations of species from solar facilities. For some species, we have already identified genomic markers of specific breeding populations and developed “genoscapes,” maps of unique genetic variation across the full breeding range of a species. We used these (previously and newly developed) genoscapes to probabilistically link a feather spot to the specific breeding populations from which it originated (assignment probabilities range from 75%-100% depending on species and population groups). For those species without genoscapes, we developed a vulnerability and susceptibility estimate that determines the relative local and regional risk to populations that are in geographic proximity to solar facilities, using citizen science data (Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and eBird). These two feather spot processing pipelines (see Figure 1 below) provide quantitative estimates as to the numbers of individuals from a given population of origin that are affected by solar facilities, and ultimately can reduce costs to the consumer by reducing the industry costs associated with mitigation and siting strategies for future solar energy development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Demographics, Stellar Populations, and Star Formation Histories of Fast Radio Burst Host Galaxies: Implications for the Progenitors

We present a comprehensive catalog of observations and stellar population properties for 23 highly secure host galaxies of fast radio bursts (FRBs). Our sample comprises 6 repeating FRBs and 17 apparent nonrepeaters. We present 82 new photometric and 8 new spectroscopic observations of these hosts. Using stellar population synthesis modeling and employing nonparametric star formation histories (SFHs), we find that FRB hosts have a median stellar mass of ≈10 9.9 M ⊙ , mass-weighted age ≈5.1 Gyr, and ongoing star formation rate ≈1.3 M ⊙ yr -1 but span wide ranges in all properties. Classifying the hosts by degree of star formation, we find that 87% (20 of 23 hosts) are star-forming, two are transitioning, and one is quiescent. The majority trace the star-forming main sequence of galaxies, but at least three FRBs in our sample originate in less-active environments (two nonrepeaters and one repeater). Across all modeled properties, we find no statistically significant distinction between the hosts of repeaters and nonrepeaters. However, the hosts of repeating FRBs generally extend to lower stellar masses, and the hosts of nonrepeaters arise in more optically luminous galaxies. While four of the galaxies with the clearest and most prolonged rises in their SFHs all host repeating FRBs, demonstrating heightened star formation activity in the last ≲100 Myr, one nonrepeating host shows this SFH as well. Our results support progenitor models with short delay channels (i.e., magnetars formed via core-collapse supernova) for most FRBs, but the presence of some FRBs in less-active environments suggests a fraction form through more delayed channels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intrinsic alignment demographics for next-generation lensing: Revealing galaxy property trends with DESI Y1 direct measurements

We present direct measurements of the intrinsic alignments (IA) of over 2 million spectroscopic galaxies using DESI Data Release 1 and imaging from four lensing surveys: DES, HSC, KiDS, and SDSS. In this uniquely data-rich regime, we take initial steps towards a more tailored IA modelling approach by building a library of IA measurements across colour, luminosity, stellar mass, and redshift. We map the dependence between galaxy type -- in terms of rest-frame colour, strength of the 4000 Angstrom break, and specific star formation rate -- and IA amplitude; the bluest galaxies have an alignment consistent with zero, across low ($0.05

Siegel, J. [Princeton U.]↗
NASA NTRS1974

Passenger demographics and subjective response to commuter aircraft in the northeast

Results are compared for comfort and environmental studies taken in conjunction with a STOL program. Data were taken on flights of four different airlines, each flying different aircraft. Two of the lines are classified as commuter airlines flying between relatively close destinations. The aircraft involved are: the De Havilland Twin Otter, a Canadian aircraft; the French Nord 262; the Beechcraft 99 Airliner and the Sikorsky S-61 helicopter, both American.

Noskowitz, D.↗
NASA NTRS1977

LANDSAT (MSS): Image demographic estimations

The author has identified the following significant results. Two sets of urban test sites, one with 35 cities and one with 70 cities, were selected in the State, Sao Paulo. A high degree of colinearity (0.96) was found between urban and areal measurements taken from aerial photographs and LANDSAT MSS imagery. High coefficients were observed when census data were regressed against aerial information (0.95) and LANDSAT data (0.92). The validity of population estimations was tested by regressing three urban variables, against three classes of cities. Results supported the effectiveness of LANDSAT to estimate large city populations with diminishing effectiveness as urban areas decrease in size.

Dejesusparada, N.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Economic and demographic issues related to deployment of the Satellite Power System (SPS)

Growth in energy consumption stimulated interest in exploitation of renewable sources of electric energy. One technology that was proposed is the Satellite Power System (SPS). Before committing the U.S. to such a large program, the Department of Energy and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration are jointly participating in an SPS Concept Development and Evaluation Program. This white paper on industrial and population relocation is part of the FY 78 preliminary evaluation of related socio-economic issues. Results of four preliminary assessment activities are documented.

Baldwin, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Impact of Demographic Siting Criteria and Environmental Suitability on Land Availability for Nuclear Reactor Siting

The effect of population and certain environmental characteristics on the availability of land for siting nuclear power plants was assessed. The study area, consisting of the 48 contiguous states, was divided into 5 kilometer (km) square grid cells yielding a total of 600,000 cells. Through the use of a modern geographic information system, it was possible to provide a detailed analysis of a quite large area. Numerous maps and statistical tables were produced, the detail of which were limited only by available data. Evaluation issues included population density, restricted lands, seismic hardening, site preparation, water availability, and cost factors.

Hansen, K. L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climatic and Demographic Consequences of the Massive Volcanic Eruption of 1258

Somewhere in the tropics, a volcano exploded violently during the year 1258, producing a massive stratospheric aerosol veil that eventually blanketed the globe. Arctic and Antarctic ice cores suggest that this was the world's largest volcanic eruption of the past millennium. According to contemporary chronicles, the stratospheric dry fog possibly manifested itself in Europe as a persistently cloudy aspect of the sky and also through an apparently total darkening of the eclipsed Moon. Based on a sudden temperature drop for several months in England, the eruption's initiation date can be inferred to have been probably January 1258. The frequent cold and rain that year led to severe crop damage and famine throughout much of Europe. Pestilence repeatedly broke out in 1258 and 1259; it occurred also in the Middle East, reportedly there as plague. Another very cold winter followed in 1260-1261. The troubled period's wars, famines, pestilences, and earthquakes appear to have contributed in part to the rise of the European flagellant movement of 1260, one of the most bizarre social phenomena of the Middle Ages. Analogies can be drawn with the climatic aftereffects and European social unrest following another great tropical eruption, Tambora in 1815. Some generalizations about the climatic impacts of tropical eruptions are made from these and other data.

Stothers, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Human Dimensions of Deforestation and Regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon: Integrating Data from Satellites, Demographic Censuses, and Field Surveys

This report summarizes research activities and products from a collaborative project on the "Human Dimensions of Deforestation and Regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon," awarded to Charles H. Wood (PI; Department of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin, now in the Center for Latin American Studies, University of Florida), Steven E. Sanderson (Co-PI; Department of Political Science, University of Florida, now Dean of Emory College, Emory University) and David L. Skole (Co-PI; Institute for Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, now in the Department of Geography and Basic Science Remote Sensing Initiative, Michigan State University).

Wood, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Black Hole Demographics in and Nuclear Properties of Nearby Low Luminosity Radio Galaxies; Connections to Radio Activity?

We combine the results of an HST STIS and WFPC study of a complete sample of 21 nearby UGC low luminosity radio galaxies with the results of a radio VLA and VLBA study of the same sample. We examine the relationship between the stellar and gaseous properties of the galaxies on tens to hundreds of parsec scale with the properties of the radio jets on the same scale. From the VLA and VLBA data we constrain the physics of the outflowing radio plasma from the tens of parsecs to hundreds of kiloparsec scales. From the WFPC2 H alpha and dust images and the STIS kinematics of the near nuclear gas we obtain constraints on the orientation of near nuclear disks of gas and measures of the nuclear stellar, continuum point source, and line emission fluxes. Under the statistically supported assumption that the radio jet issues perpendicular to the disk, we use the orientation of the optical (large scale accretion?) disks to constrain the three-dimensional orientation of the radio ejection. From HST/STIS spectroscopy of the near-nuclear emission line gas we obtain measures/limits on the black hole masses. We examine correlations between the VLBA and VLA-scale radio emission, the nuclear line emission, and the nuclear optical and radio continuum emission. Though our sample is relatively small, it is uniquely well defined, spans a narrow range in redshift and we have a consistent set of high resolution data with which to carefully examine these relationships. We use the combined radio and optical data to: 1) Constrain the orientation, physics, and bulk outflow speed of the radio plasma; 2) Put limits on the mass accretion rate and study the relationship between black hole mass, radio luminosity, and near nuclear gaseous content; 3) Provide insight into the relationship between BL Lac objects and low luminosity radio galaxies.

Baum, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Demographics of Rocky Free-Floating Planets and Their Detectability by WFIRST

Planets are thought to form via accretion from a remnant disk of gas and solids around a newly formed star. During this process, material in the disk either remains bound to the star as part of either a planet, a smaller celestial body, or makes up part of the the interplanetary medium; falls into the star; or is ejected from the system. Herein we use dynamical models to probe the abundance and properties of ejected material during late-stage planet formation and estimate their contribution to the free-floating planet population. We present 300 N-body simulations of terrestrial planet formation around a solar-type star, with and without giant planets present, using a model that accounts for collisional fragmentation. In simulations with Jupiter and Saturn analogs, about one-third of the initial (approx. 5 solar mass) disk mass is ejected, about half in planets more massive than Mercury but with a mass lower than 0.3 solar mass, and the remainder in smaller bodies. Most ejections occur within 25 Myr, which is shorter than the timescale typically required for Earth-mass planets to grow (30-100 Myr). When giant planets are omitted from our simulations, almost no material is ejected within 200 Myr and only about 1% of the initial disk is ejected by 2 Gyr. We show that about 2.5 terrestrial-mass planets are ejected per star in the Galaxy. We predict that the space-borne microlensing search for free-floating planets from the Wide-Field Infra-Red Space Telescope will discover up to 15 Mars-mass planets, but few free-floating Earth-mass planets.

Barclay, Thomas S.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Who's Been Up There? A Look at Astronaut and Payload Specialist Demographics

As spaceflight continues to advance, understanding who has been to space in the past and what occurred during those missions, can help us better create a contextual foundation for the data that has been collected. This foundation can in turn guide how data may be generalized and applied to future crew selections and mission programs.

Samuel Jacobs↗
NASA NTRS2021

Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90° N) and younger tropical (23° S–23° N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50° N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C/sq. myr but as high as 0.60 kg C/sq. myr where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

LPJ-wsl↗
DOE OSTI2023

Juvenile life history diversity is associated with lifetime individual heterogeneity in a migratory fish

Abstract Differences in the life history pathways (LHPs) of juvenile animals are often associated with differences in demographic rates in later life stages. For migratory animals, different LHPs often result in animals from the same population occupying distinct habitats subjected to different environmental drivers. Understanding how demographic rates differ among animals expressing different LHPs may reveal fitness trade‐offs that drive the expression of alternative LHPs and enable better prediction of population dynamics in a changing environment. To understand how demographic outcomes and their relationships with environmental variables differ among animals with different LHPs, we analyzed a long‐term (2006–2021) mark–recapture dataset for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) from the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA. Distinct LHPs represented in this population include either remaining in the natal stream until emigrating to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (natal‐reach rearing) or emigrating from the natal stream and rearing in downstream habitats for several months before completing the emigration to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (downstream rearing). We found that downstream‐rearing fish emigrated to the ocean 19 days earlier on average and returned as adults from the ocean at higher rates. We detected a positive correlation between rate of return from the ocean by downstream‐rearing fish and coastal upwelling in their spring of outmigration, whereas for natal‐reach‐rearing fish we detected a positive correlation with sea surface temperature during their first marine summer. Different responses to environmental variability should lead to asynchrony in adult abundance among juvenile LHPs. A higher proportion of downstream‐rearing fish returned at younger ages compared with natal‐reach‐rearing fish, which contributed to variability in age at reproduction and greater mixing across generations. Our results demonstrate how diversity in juvenile LHPs is associated with heterogeneity in demographic rates during subsequent life stages, which can in turn affect variance in aggregate population abundance and response to environmental change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering life history diversity in demographic analyses and provide insights into the effects of life history diversity on population dynamics and trade‐offs that contribute to the maintenance of life history diversity.

Sorel, Mark H.↗