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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Data‐Driven Discovery of High‐Performance Silver Selenide‐Based Thermoelectric Composites

Optimizing material compositions often enhances thermoelectric performances. However, the large selection of possible base elements and dopants results in a vast composition design space that is too large to systematically search using solely domain knowledge. To address this challenge, a hybrid data-driven strategy that integrates Bayesian optimization (BO) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed to optimize the composition of five elements (Ag, Se, S, Cu, and Te) in AgSe-based thermoelectric materials. Data is collected from the literature to provide prior knowledge for the initial GPR model, which is updated by actively collected experimental data during the iteration between BO and experiments. Within seven iterations, the optimized AgSe-based materials prepared using a simple high-throughput ink mixing and blade coating method deliver a high power factor of 2100 µW m −1 K −2 , which is a 75% improvement from the baseline composite (nominal composition of Ag 2 Se 1 ). In conclusion, the success of this study provides opportunities to generalize the demonstrated active machine learning technique to accelerate the development and optimization of a wide range of material systems with reduced experimental trials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Data-Driven Method for Modeling Creep-Fatigue Stress- Strain Behavior Using Neural ODEs

In this paper, we introduce a data-driven machine learning approach for modeling one-dimensional stress–strain behavior under cyclic loading, utilizing experimental data from the nickel-based Alloy 617. The study employs uniaxial creep–fatigue test data acquired under various loading histories and compares two distinct neural network-based ODE models. The first model, known as the black-box model, comprehensively describes the strain–stress relationship using a Neural ODE equation. To interpret this black-box model, we apply the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems (SINDy) technique, transforming the black-box model into an equation-based model using symbolic regression. The second model, the Neural flow rule model, incorporates Hooke’s Law for the linear elastic component, with the nonlinear part characterized by a Neural ODE. Both models are trained with experimental data to accurately reflect the observed stress–strain behavior. We conduct a detailed comparison with the standard Chaboche model, which includes three back stresses. Our results demonstrate that the neural network-based ODE models precisely capture the experimental creep–fatigue mechanical behavior, exceeding the standard Chaboche model’s accuracy. Furthermore, an interpretable model derived from the black-box neural ODE model through symbolic regression achieves accuracy comparable to the Chaboche model, enhancing its interpretability. The results highlight the potential of neural network-based ODE models to depict complex creep–fatigue behavior, eliminating the necessity for experts to define a specific, material-focused model form.

creep-fatigue↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Microstructure Variability in Laser Powder Bed Fusion 316 L Stainless Steel Microstructures with Spatial Statistics

Here, we have explored data-driven methods for material microstructure quantification that improve sensitivity to microstructural changes compared to traditional approaches. The methods integrate multiple microstructural properties, including grain morphology, crystallographic orientation, and material phase information. The simpler method employs maps of the Euclidean distance transformation metric to evaluate the morphology of grain boundary networks. The more intensive approach employs generalized spherical harmonic mapping for crystallographic orientations, per-pixel phase information, and a variational auto-encoder for dimensionality reduction and results in a multidimensional clustering of by microstructure similarity. Applied to an experimental dataset of additively manufactured steel, both methods detected slight variations in samples produced under nominally identical processing conditions. Both methods were able to distinguish between samples from multiple (nominally identical) builds, while the generalized spherical harmonics-based method could additionally cluster data samples rotated at two orientations on the build plate. The improved sensitivity of the methods, demonstrated through comparison with traditional microstructure characterization techniques, offers advantages for microstructure quantification and comparisons in advanced manufacturing applications.

SS316L↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open data sets for assessing photovoltaic system reliability

Photovoltaic (PV) systems have become a cornerstone of renewable energy strategies, particularly due to the significant reduction in solar power costs over the past decade. However, the long-term reliability of PV installations presents a persistent challenge, requiring the development of advanced monitoring and predictive maintenance strategies. A wide range of data types is used to evaluate the health of PV systems, including environmental conditions, electrical performance, and inspection imagery. These data enable methodologies such as machine learning (ML) models for lifetime prediction and computer vision techniques for defect detection. However, the acquisition of high-quality and comprehensive data is difficult, particularly in terms of long-term consistency and data variety. Publicly available data sets serve as valuable resources for addressing these challenges, but they often suffer from fragmentation and are difficult to access. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing open-source data sets related to PV degradation, analyzing their features, functionalities, and potential applications. We categorize these data sets based on the specific aspects of PV system information they cover, such as environmental conditions, operational monitoring, image inspection and module materials, and propose relevant tools and ML models for processing them. In addition, we propose practices for future data collection and usage, while also discussing potential directions in data-driven research. Our aim is to enhance data utilization and publication among researchers and industry professionals, promoting a deeper understanding of the role of data in enhancing the performance and durability of PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

From clutter to clarity: Emergent neural operators via questionnaire metrics

Real-world datasets in chemical engineering and bioengineering processes—such as those from catalytic reactors, multiphase flows, polymerization reactors, bioreactors, and clinical trials—can often be unlabeled or disorganized, rendering the training of existing supervised learning models ineffective at learning the underlying dynamics. To salvage these datasets for decision-making, we first seek to obtain clarity from the cluttered data. Here, we present a framework for developing “structural” generative models, discovering emergent equations, and constructing efficient emulators from scrambled datasets by integrating unsupervised organizational learning techniques (Questionnaires) with advanced deep learning architectures (Deep Hidden Physics Models and Deep Operator Networks). Our approach is demonstrated on two illustrative model systems: (a) a 1D advection–diffusion partial differential equation representing a winding underground pipe and (b) an ensemble of Stuart–Landau oscillators, an agent-based system of coupled ordinary differential equations. In both cases, we successfully reconstruct meaningful spatial, temporal, and parameter embeddings from scrambled data, enabling good predictions of system dynamics. As a result, we highlight the framework’s potential for broader applications, enabling data-driven system identification in fields with inherently disorganized or hidden parameter spaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Web-based wide-area monitoring platform for ringdown and clustering analytics in power systems

This paper introduces an open-source research platform for monitoring the Mexican interconnected power grid, allowing real-time processing and information extraction of the grid’s dynamic condition. Moreover, the platform is a Python-based development that embeds different ringdown and clustering analytics tools. In the case of ringdown analysis, the modal information can be extracted using some of the most known algorithms, i.e., Prony analysis, eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA), and matrix pencil (MP). For clustering analysis, the coherent behaviour of generator and non-generator buses is provided by applying recent state-of-the-art techniques such as affinity propagation, K-means, hierarchical agglomerative clustering, and typicality data analysis. The results of up to 93 PMUs show that this open-source platform suits researchers’ and engineers’ power system dynamic analysis requirements.

Clustering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Domain Knowledge on the Property Prediction of Specialized Machine Learning Models

Developing transferable machine learning models is trending in data-driven materials research. However, how to apply such models to a specific research domain remains unclear. Here, in this work, we choose high-entropy materials as a platform with a specialized data set containing 145,323 DFT-relaxed materials. This data set is used to explore the role of domain-specific knowledge in training effective models. Our tests with three representative graph neural network architectures indicate the model complexity has much smaller influence on performance than the data itself. Specifically, the consideration of low-energy atomic ordering, structures with diverse elemental coverage, and high-order interactions significantly influences the model performance. We also find that domain knowledge-driven sampling can greatly enhance unsupervised learning techniques. This research highlights that developing specialized data sets is more beneficial than further complicating deep learning architectures. Additionally, physics-inspired sampling algorithms are crucially needed for better machine learning models for a specific materials research domain.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning inversion of interatomic force constants from single-crystal inelastic neutron scattering

Atomic vibrations govern many macroscopic properties of materials, but experiments to comprehensively probe them remain challenging. Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) is a powerful technique to map phonon dispersions in crystals, especially when leveraging modern time-of-flight (ToF) spectrometers with large detectors. However, efficiently and robustly extracting interatomic force constants (FCs) parameterizing phonon dynamics from experimental spectra remains a bottleneck due to the complexity and high dimensionality of ToF INS datasets. Here, we present a machine learning approach for the direct inversion of FCs from single-crystal INS measurements. The framework leverages synthetic training data generated using universal machine-learned force fields and an efficient physics-based forward model. We benchmark two neural architectures–one emphasizing structured latent representation learning and the other direct, supervised spectral regression–across simulated datasets for two materials under idealized and noisy conditions. The latent-representation model is subsequently applied to experimental single-crystal INS data on germanium. The model is shown to reproduce FCs derived from both first-principles simulations and from iterative optimization, and furthermore achieves reliable inference even from sparse, single-orientation measurements representing short data acquisitions. Analysis of the learned latent space reveals semantically continuous and physically interpretable encodings that support strong cross-domain generalization. By bridging theoretical and experimental domains, we establish a path toward rapid inversion of experimental spectra and data-driven interpretation of temperature-dependent lattice dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

LCLS Big Data Handling – How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Data Deluge

Advanced data and computing systems are vital to Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) operations, data interpretation and overall scientific productivity. The transition to MHz-era operation marks a fundamental change in scale that requires new infrastructure and architectures to link LCLS to the required scale of computing needed for scientific interpretation. The LCLS-II Data System meets big data challenges by implementing configurable data reduction that can adapt to multiple science areas, real-time analysis frameworks to provide visualization and fast feedback, and the ability to transfer data to local and remote computational facilities for near real time analysis at the appropriate scale. Feature extracted information generated in the data analysis pipeline - at the edge, local compute, or remote High-Performance Computing (HPC) resources - can be used to steer experiments and inform user decisions during beam time. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) techniques present new opportunities to rapidly analyse large datasets and direct experiments, but create new challenges in scaling, adaptability, complexity, and trustworthiness. We describe how the LCLS-II Data System architecture addresses its data-driven challenges in the areas of data acquisition, data processing, data management, and workflow orchestration to decrease the overall time-to-science and provide a vision for future developments.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning approaches for crystallographic classification from synthetic 2D X-ray diffraction data

Crystallographic structure identification is crucial for understanding material properties; however, current methodologies often depend on labor-intensive and time-consuming analyses of 2D X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns. To address these limitations, this study employs synthetic 2D XRD patterns combined with deep learning (DL) techniques to enable automated and high-throughput classification of the seven crystal systems and 230 space groups. We introduce the novel Auto Diffraction Pipeline, designed to generate synthetic 2D XRD spot patterns from crystallographic information files under diverse conditions, including varying zone axes, atomic substitution, atomic depletion and mechanical loading. These conditions enhance the realism of synthetic data, mitigating the scarcity of experimental datasets and enabling the creation of large representative training sets. Convolutional neural networks were trained and validated on these synthetic datasets to classify crystallographic structures across multiple scenarios. Our results demonstrate that integrating synthetic 2D XRD patterns with DL facilitates rapid, accurate and automated crystallographic classification, promoting the wider adoption of data-driven approaches in materials science.

Shahnazari, Ayoub [Univ. of Rochester, NY (United ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of data driven low-rank matrix factorization for accelerated solutions of the Vlasov equation

Low-rank methods have shown success in accelerating simulations of a collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation, but still rely on computationally costly linear algebra every time step. We propose a data-driven factorization method using artificial neural networks, specifically with convolutional layer architecture, that trains on existing simulation data. At inference time, the model outputs a low-rank decomposition of the distribution field of the charged particles, and we demonstrate that this step is faster than the standard linear algebra technique. Numerical experiments show that the method achieves comparable reconstruction accuracy for interpolation tasks, generalizing to unseen test data in a manner beyond just memorizing training data; patterns in factorization also inherently followed the same numerical trend as those within algebraic methods (e.g., truncated singular-value decomposition). However, when training on the first 70% of a time-series data and testing on the remaining 30%, the method fails to meaningfully extrapolate. Despite this limiting result, the technique may have benefits for simulations in a statistical steady-state or otherwise showing temporal stability. These results suggest that while the model offers a computationally efficient alternative for datasets with temporal stability, its current formulation is best suited for interpolation rather than for predicting future states in time-evolving systems. This study thus lays the groundwork for further refinement of neural network-based approaches to low-rank matrix factorization in high-dimensional plasma simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward a microscopic picture of hadronization and multi-parton processes

This project advanced the understanding of how quarks and gluons produced in high-energy collisions transform into the hadrons observed in particle detectors, a fundamental process known as quantum chromodynamics (QCD) hadronization. By combining theoretical calculations, quantum simulation methods, and modern AI techniques, the research developed new tools to study multi-parton dynamics and nonperturbative effects that are essential for interpreting data from current and future nuclear physics experiments. Key outcomes include new theoretical frameworks for jet and hadron measurements, pioneering quantum simulation algorithms for real-time dynamics in field theories, and the development of advanced machine-learning models, such as diffusion models and explainable classifiers, to simulate and analyze collider events. These results are directly relevant to experiments at Jefferson Lab, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and the future Electron-Ion Collider, and they also have a broader impact in areas such as quantum information science and data-driven modeling of complex systems. The project supported the training of graduate students and postdoctoral fellows and contributed to the broader scientific community through publications, workshops, and collaborative activities. Overall, this work provides new insights into the microscopic mechanisms of hadron formation and establishes a foundation for future studies at the intersection of nuclear physics, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Based Metamodel for Faster Life Cycle Assessment of Large Portfolio of Buildings

Managing a large portfolio of buildings involves decisions on reuse, retrofit, renovation, rehabilitation, and new construction, influenced by trade-offs between performance metrics such as cost, time, and operational flexibility over the building's life cycle. Traditional life cycle assessment tools for evaluating these metrics can be labor- and compute-intensive, requiring extensive data and modeling for each building. Metamodels (or surrogate models) using machine learning have been explored as faster alternatives, but training these models has been hindered by the limited availability of comprehensive data on key life cycle metrics. Recent advancements in machine learning, particularly deep learning techniques like zero-shot and few-shot learning, allow models to learn from sparse or limited data. We propose a machine learning-based metamodel that leverages these techniques for rapid estimation of key building life cycle metrics. This presentation will cover the model architecture, data collection, training, and validation processes, along with an ongoing case study applied to a large portfolio of buildings. We will discuss the model's performance in terms of accuracy, compute time, limitations, and its potential for expanding to additional life cycle metrics. This data-driven approach offers a promising direction for the rapid evaluation of large building portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗