Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Data driven”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Practical Comparison of Data-Driven Prognostics Methods for Energy Systems

This study explores data-driven prognostics for nuclear power plant (NPP) condensers, focusing on tube fouling. We utilized the Asherah nuclear power plant simulator (ANS) to compare four methods: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). By simulating various fouling scenarios in the ANS, we generated data with different degradation rates under transient operations. The models were trained and tested on these data, with performance evaluated visually and numerically including uncertainty assessment. The LSTM model excelled, exhibiting minimal prediction noise and the most accurate remaining useful life estimates across all degradation levels. Its ability to capture long-term dependencies and produce cleaner outputs makes it a strong candidate, although accurate training data across the entire component lifespan are crucial. The RF model emerged as a robust alternative, providing reliable predictions with high confidence. The FCNN and SVR models, while less effective overall, showed potential under specific conditions. FCNN offers a less complex alternative to LSTM and might benefit from larger datasets. SVR excels in precision when the quality of the training data is high. Furthermore, this study highlights the operational benefits of advanced prognostics in the energy sector and emphasizes the need for further research in NPP condenser health management through real-life experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning

With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Orion GN and C Data-Driven Flight Software Architecture for Automated Sequencing and Fault Recovery

The Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CET) is being designed to include significantly more automation capability than either the Space Shuttle or the International Space Station (ISS). In particular, the vehicle flight software has requirements to accommodate increasingly automated missions throughout all phases of flight. A data-driven flight software architecture will provide an evolvable automation capability to sequence through Guidance, Navigation & Control (GN&C) flight software modes and configurations while maintaining the required flexibility and human control over the automation. This flexibility is a key aspect needed to address the maturation of operational concepts, to permit ground and crew operators to gain trust in the system and mitigate unpredictability in human spaceflight. To allow for mission flexibility and reconfrgurability, a data driven approach is being taken to load the mission event plan as well cis the flight software artifacts associated with the GN&C subsystem. A database of GN&C level sequencing data is presented which manages and tracks the mission specific and algorithm parameters to provide a capability to schedule GN&C events within mission segments. The flight software data schema for performing automated mission sequencing is presented with a concept of operations for interactions with ground and onboard crew members. A prototype architecture for fault identification, isolation and recovery interactions with the automation software is presented and discussed as a forward work item.

King, Ellis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aggregate data‐driven dynamic modeling of active distribution networks with DERs for voltage stability studies

Abstract Electric distribution networks increasingly host distributed energy resources based on power electronic converter (PEC) toward active distribution networks (ADN). Despite advances in computational capabilities, electromagnetic transient models are limited in scalability because of their reliance on exact data about the distribution system and each of its components. Similarly, the use of the DER_A model, which is intended to examine the combined dynamic behavior of many DERs, is limited by the difficulty in parameterization. There is a need for improved dynamic models of DERs for use in large power system simulations for stability analysis. This paper proposes an aggregate model‐free, data‐driven approach for deriving a dynamic partitioned model (DPM) of ADNs. Detailed residential distribution feeders were first developed, including PEC‐based DERs and composite load models (CMLDs), from which the aggregated DPM was derived. The performance was evaluated through various case studies and validated against the detailed ADN model and state‐of‐the‐art DER_A model with CMLD. The data‐driven DPM achieved a of over 90%, accurately representing the aggregated dynamic behavior of ADNs. Furthermore, the DPM significantly accelerated the simulation process with a computational speedup of 68 times compared to the detailed ADN and a 3.5 times speedup compared to the DER_A CMLD model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Double-edged Sword of Data-driven Super-Resolution: Adversarial Super-resolution Models

Data-driven super-resolution (SR) methods are often integrated into imaging pipelines as preprocessing steps to improve downstream tasks such as classification and detection. However, these SR models introduce a previously unexplored attack surface into imaging pipelines. In this paper, we present AdvSR, a framework demonstrating that adversarial behavior can be embedded directly into SR model weights during training, requiring no access to inputs at inference time. Unlike prior attacks that perturb inputs or rely on backdoor triggers, AdvSR operates entirely at the model level. By jointly optimizing for reconstruction quality and targeted adversarial outcomes, AdvSR produces models that appear benign under standard image quality metrics while inducing downstream misclassification. We evaluate AdvSR on three SR architectures (SRCNN, EDSR, SwinIR) paired with a YOLOv11 classifier and demonstrate that AdvSR models can achieve high attack success rates with minimal quality degradation. These findings highlight a new model-level threat for imaging pipelines, with implications for how practitioners source and validate models in safety-critical applications.

Sullivan, Haley [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000274069217)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Model for Photovoltaic Generation: Comparison with Physical Models Using a Microgrid in Puerto Rico

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is a critical component of microgrids, but its accurate modeling is challenging due to the complex and dynamic interactions between solar irradiance, temperature, and PV system installation. This paper develops a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model that inputs solar irradiance and temperature to estimate the PV generation, and it compares the proposed data-driven model’s performance to two well-known physical models: the single-diode model and the inverter model. The results demonstrate that all the models can reach high levels of accuracy. However, the MLP model outperforms the physical models on average by 4.5 to 6.6 percent in R squared scores and 220 to 290 Watts in RMSE scores, and it does not require physical system parameters. Moreover, the data-driven model can overcome the limitations of the lack of real-time PV generation data.

R pesante colón, Marcos↗
NASA NTRS2011

Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

Electrolytic capacitors↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven upper bounds and event attribution for unprecedented heatwaves

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot temperatures can become. Generalized Extreme Value theory provides a data-driven estimate of extreme thresholds; however, upper bounds may be exceeded by future events, which undermines attribution and planning for heatwave impacts. Here, we show how the occurrence and relative probability of observed yet unprecedented events that exceed a priori upper bound estimates, so-called “impossible” temperatures, has changed over time. We find that many unprecedented events are actually within data-driven upper bounds, but only when using modern spatial statistical methods. Furthermore, there are clear connections between anthropogenic forcing and the “impossibility” of the most extreme temperatures. Robust understanding of heatwave thresholds provides critical information about future record-breaking events and how their extremity relates to historical measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the Prediction of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Within a Data-Driven Framework

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) pose the largest uncertainty for climate projection. Among many challenges of understanding ACI, the question of whether ACI can be deterministically predicted has not been explicitly answered. Here we attempt to answer this question by predicting cloud droplet number concentration N c from aerosol number concentration N a and ambient conditions using a data-driven framework. We use aerosol properties, vertical velocity fluctuations, and meteorological states from the ACTIVATE field observations (2020–2022) as predictors to estimate N c . We show that the campaign-wide N c can be successfully predicted using machine learning models despite the strongly nonlinear and multi-scale nature of ACI. However, the observation-trained machine learning model fails to predict N c in individual cases while it successfully predicts N c of randomly selected data points that cover a broad spatiotemporal scale. This suggests that, within a data-driven framework, the N c prediction is uncertain at fine spatiotemporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Mapping of the Cesium Cadmium Bromide Phase Space Utilizing a Soft-Chemistry Approach

Soft-chemistry techniques provide a versatile approach to synthesizing inorganic materials under mild conditions, enabling access to compositions and structures that are challenging to achieve through traditional thermodynamically driven solid-state methods. However, these solution-based routes often result in phase competition, requiring precise control over reaction conditions to achieve selective product formation. While one-variable-at-a-time (OVAT) approaches have traditionally been used for phase selection, data-driven strategies are emerging as more efficient methods for navigating complex synthetic spaces. Ternary metal halides, such as cesium cadmium bromides (Cs–Cd–Br), are of growing interest due to their potential in wide and ultrawide band gap applications. Unlike the well-studied cesium lead halide phases, the compositional diversity and solution-based synthesis of ternary Cs–Cd–Br phases remain largely unexplored. This study systematically investigates the synthetic phase space of the Cs–Cd–Br system by constructing a data-driven phase map. Using a common set of precursors and a standardized experimental procedure, we successfully synthesize all four known Cs–Cd–Br phases—CsCdBr 3 , Cs 2 CdBr 4 , Cs 3 CdBr 5 , and Cs 7 Cd 3 Br 13 —each exhibiting distinct structures, morphologies, and optical properties. Our findings highlight the potential of soft-chemistry methods for expanding the library of ternary metal halides and provide key insights into the thermodynamic and kinetic factors governing phase formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS2022

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.

Online anomaly detection↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Data-Driven Approach to Recognizing and Understanding Human Contributions to Aviation Safety

Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence, and are influenced by, how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. In the commercial aviation domain, large volumes of data are collected and analyzed on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on safety-producing behaviors, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of non-representative safety data. Analysis of aviation accident data suggests that human error is implicated in up to 80% of accidents, which has been used to justify future visions for aviation in which the roles of human operators are greatly diminished or eliminated in the interest of creating a safer aviation system. However, failure to fully consider the human contributions to aviation safety represents a significant and largely unrecognized risk when making policy decisions about safety management and system design. Opportunities exist to leverage the vast amount of data that have already been collected, or could be easily obtained, to increase our understanding of human contributions to safety in commercial aviation. This presentation will focus on those opportunities as well as the challenges associated with collecting and analyzing data on operators’ safety-producing behaviors.

Safety↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Data-Driven Framework for Predicting the Sorting and Screening Performance of an Integrated Biomass Feedstock Preprocessing System

The characteristics of mechanically sorted and screened lignocellulosic biomass, such as the mass contents of corn stover anatomical fractions (leaves, husks, stalks, cobs, etc.), can be used to calculate the intermediate feedstock quality attributes “yield” and “purity” that indicate the conversion efficiency of biocrude. No prior study has investigated the correlations from the characteristics of raw biomass and preprocessing unit operation parameters to those intermediate feedstock quality attributes. This work presents a data-driven framework for assessing and predicting the intermediate feedstock quality attributes in an integrated biomass feedstock preprocessing system. Our study used corn stover as a typical type of herbaceous biomass because of its abundance in the U.S. It began with data acquisition of moisture content, particle size distribution, and anatomical fractions of the materials after each unit operation in the system. The objective of this preprocessing system is to minimize husks and leaves and maximizing cobs and stalks by mechanically separating the materials into three streams via disc screen and air separator. Prototype neural network models were then developed to evaluate the feasibility of predicting process outcomes based on measurable parameters. It is found that incorporating physical constraints into these prediction models significantly enhances the accuracy of the predicted yield and purity against the ground truth data. The experimental data and model predictions indicate that decreasing throughput increases purity, while higher throughput results in lower purity. Finally, an optimization problem was introduced to search optimal combinations of feed material properties and preprocessing unit operation parameters, as the intermediate feedstock quality attributes – yield and purity, appeared to be competing factors. The study also suggests the continual need to improve the data-driven framework’s predictability by incorporating more accurate physical models to describe the dynamics in the preprocessing units such as the air separator.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven multi-element substitution of TiFe alloys for tunable thermodynamics and enhanced activation behaviour for hydrogen storage

Due to their high volumetric hydrogen storage capacity under moderate storage conditions, TiFe alloys have been widely investigated as candidates for practical solid-state hydrogen storage. Partially substituting Ti or Fe sites can improve the key characteristics of TiFe alloys, such as the first hydrogen absorption step (activation) and the equilibrium hydrogen pressure (thermodynamic properties). However, the selection of substitution elements has heavily relied on intuition and trial-and-error. Also, conventional substitution strategies have mainly focused on single-element substitution within the TiFe alloy, limiting the design space and tunability for target applications. Here, to address this limitation, we report a multi-element substitution strategy motivated by an efficient, data-driven machine learning (ML) approach combined with corroborating density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Our models successfully predict experimentally measured hydride stability in five selected alloys using only compositional descriptors. Most importantly, the multi-element substitution leads to enhanced activation properties compared to pure TiFe, achieving near room-temperature activation behaviour. This work provides a method for on-demand tuning of hydrogen storage and activation properties, which may have broad implications for data-driven discovery of energy storage materials.

Cho, YongJun [Korea Advanced Institute Science and↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solar Forecasting, Net Load Forecasting, and Data-Driven Distributed Solar Visibility Prizes (Final Technical Report)

The American-Made Solar Forecasting Prize, Net Load Forecasting Prize, and Data-Driven Distribution (3D) Solar Visibility Prize is a multimillion-dollar prize competition designed to energize U.S. solar innovation through a series of contests that accelerate the entrepreneurial process from years to months. The activities incentivized by these three prizes will support the governmentwide approach to increase American energy dominance by promoting innovation and early deployment of energy technologies, resulting in wider adoption, which is critical for secure, affordable, and reliable solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗