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At least 73 records · Page 4

Drop Axis Ratio Distributions in Stratiform and Convective Rain

A fully calibrated low profile 2D video disdrometer (2DVD) has been recording many different rainfall events in Northern Alabama (USA) since June 2007. An earlier publication reported drop shapes and axis ratio distributions determined for some of the events. For one of the cases examined, a noticeable shift in the 3.5 - 3.75 mm drop axis ratio distribution was noted. In this paper, we extend the earlier work by separating the 2DVD measurements into stratiform and convective rain. The separation is made possible by using the minute-by-minute drop size distribution (DSD) measured by the 2DVD. The 1-minute DSDs are fitted to a gamma distribution, and using a simple indexing technique which involves two of the fitted parameters, periods of convective and stratiform rain are separated for a given event. The output of the DSD indexing technique is qualitatively confirmed by comparing with simultaneous time series observations from a co-located UHF profiler which continuously records height profiles of reflectivity, Doppler mean and spectral width, all of which enable the identification of bright-band periods and, furthermore, periods of moderate and deep convection. Excellent consistency is found between the output of the DSD-based separation method and the profiler observations. Next, we utilize the output of DSD index-based separation method to flag the periods of severe convection for a given event. Drop axis ratios during the flagged periods are derived and compared with those during stratiform rain periods. Five cases have been considered. Axis ratio distributions do not show appreciable differences between stratiform and convective periods for four of the cases. The fifth case (the same case as reported earlier) shows a shift in the 3.5 - 3.75 mm drop axis ratios during a prolonged period of convection. The contoured shapes for these drops determined from the 2DVD camera data indicate the possibility of non-axisymmetric oscillations, compared with the contoured images for other events which fit well to our reference drop shapes. For all of above cases, observations from a C-band polarimetric radar - situated 15 km away are examined. The variations between the co-polar radar reflectivity and the differential reflectivity as well as the specific differential phase are compared with the 2DVD data based scattering calculations for the 5 events. The implications will be discussed.

Thurai, M.↗

Assessing Dual-Polarization Radar Estimates of Extreme Rainfall During Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on August 29, 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding, with some locations measuring more than 60 inches of rain over a five-day period. The WSR-88D radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event. Rain gauge data from the Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) was used for validation with the full radar data set to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates for the period August 25-29, 2017. The KHGX precipitation estimates were then compared to the HCFWS gauges. Three different hybrid polarimetric rainfall retrievals were used, along with attenuation-based retrieval that employs the radar-observed differential propagation. An advantage of using a attenuation-based retrieval is its immunity to partial beam blockage and calibration errors in reflectivity and differential reflectivity. All of the retrievals are susceptible to changes in the observed Drop Size Distribution (DSD). No in situ DSD data were available over the study area, so changes in the DSD were interpreted by examining the observed radar data. We examined the parameter space of two key values in the attenuation retrieval to test the sensitivity of the rain retrieval. Selecting a value of α=0.015 and β=0.600 and β=0.625 provided the best overall results, relative to the gauges, but more work needs to be done to develop an automated technique to account for changes in the ambient DSD.

David B Wolff↗

Assessing Dual-Polarization Radar Estimates of Extreme Rainfall During Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on 25 August 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on 29 August 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding, with some locations measuring more than 60 in. (150 cm) of rain over a 5-day period. The WSR-88D radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event. Rain gauge data from the Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) was used for validation with the full radar dataset to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates for the period 25–29 August2017. The KHGX precipitation estimates were then compared with the HCFWS gauges. Three different hybrid polarimetric rainfall retrievals were used, along with attenuation-based retrieval that employs the radar-observed differential propagation. An advantage of using a attenuation-based retrieval is its immunity to partial beam blockage and calibration errors in reflectivity and differential reflectivity. All of the retrievals are susceptible to changes in the observed drop size distribution (DSD). No in situ DSD data were available over the study area, so changes in the DSD were interpreted by examining the observed radar data. We examined the parameter space of two key values in the attenuation retrieval to test the sensitivity of the rain retrieval. Selecting a value ofa50.015 andb50.600 provided the best overall results, relative to the gauges, but more work needs to be done to develop an automated technique to account for changes in the ambient DSD.

David Billings Wolff↗

Can Remotely Sensed Snow Disappearance Explain Seasonal Water Supply?

Understanding the relationship between remotely sensed snow disappearance and seasonal water supply may become vital in coming years to supplement limited ground based, in situ measurements of snow in a changing climate. For the period 2001–2019, we investigated the relationship between satellite derived Day of Snow Disappearance (DSD)—the date at which snow has completely disappeared—and the seasonal water supply, i.e., the April—July total streamflow volume, for 15 snow dominated basins across the western U.S. A Monte Carlo framework was applied, using linear regression models to evaluate the predictive skill—defined here as a model’s ability to accurately predict seasonal flow volumes—of varied predictors, including DSD and in situ snow water equivalent (SWE), across a range of spring forecast dates. In all basins there is a statistically significant relationship between mean DSD and seasonal water supply (p ≤ 0.05), with mean DSD explaining roughly half of the variance. Satellite-based model skill improves later in the forecast season, surpassing the skill of in-situ-based (SWE) models in skill in 10 of the 15 basins by the latest forecast date. We found little to no correlation between model error and basin characteristics such as elevation and the ratio of snow water equivalent to total precipitation. Despite a relatively short data record, this exploratory analysis shows promise for improving seasonal water supply prediction, in particular for snow dominated basins lacking in situ observations.

snow remote sensing↗

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

Abstract Representing cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microwave Passive Ground-Based Retrievals of Cloud and Rain Liquid Water Path in Drizzling Clouds: Challenges and Possibilities

Satellite and ground-based microwave radiometers are routinely used for the retrieval of liquid water path (LWP) under all atmospheric conditions. The retrieval of water vapor and LWP from ground-based radiometers during rain has proved to be a difficult challenge for two principal reasons: the inadequacy of the nonscattering approximation in precipitating clouds and the deposition of rain drops on the instrument's radome. In this paper, we combine model computations and real ground-based, zenith-viewing passive microwave radiometer brightness temperature measurements to investigate how total, cloud, and rain LWP retrievals are affected by assumptions on the cloud drop size distribution (DSD) and under which conditions a nonscattering approximation can be considered reasonably accurate. Results show that until the drop effective diameter is larger than similar to 200 mu m, a nonscattering approximation yields results that are still accurate at frequencies less than 90 GHz. For larger drop sizes, it is shown that higher microwave frequencies contain useful information that can be used to separate cloud and rain LWP provided that the vertical distribution of hydrometeors, as well as the DSD, is reasonably known. The choice of the DSD parameters becomes important to ensure retrievals that are consistent with the measurements. A physical retrieval is tested on a synthetic data set and is then used to retrieve total, cloud, and rain LWP from radiometric measurements during two drizzling cases at the atmospheric radiation measurement Eastern North Atlantic site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description

A novel framework is proposed for the bulk parameterization of rain microphysics: the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS). It is designed to facilitate direct constraint by observations using Bayesian inference. BOSS combines existing process-level microphysical knowledge with flexible process rate formulations and parameters constrained by observations within a Bayesian framework. Furthermore, using a raindrop size distribution (DSD) normalization method that relates DSD moments to one another via generalized power series, generalized multivariate power expressions are derived for the microphysical process rates as functions of a set of prognostic DSD moments. The scheme is flexible and can utilize any number and combination of prognostic moments and any number of terms in the process rate formulations. This means that both uncertainty in parameter values and structural uncertainty associated with the process rate formulations can be investigated systematically, which is not possible using traditional schemes. In this paper, BOSS is compared to two- and three-moment versions of a traditional bulk rain microphysics scheme (denoted as MORR). It is demonstrated that some process formulations in MORR are analytically equivalent to the generalized power expressions in BOSS using one or two terms, while others are not. BOSS is able to replicate the behavior of MORR in idealized one-dimensional rainshaft tests, but with a much more flexible and systematic design. Part II of this study describes the application of BOSS to derive rain microphysical process rates and posterior parameter distributions in Bayesian experiments using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling constrained by synthetic observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rain Drop Size Distributions Estimated from NOAA Snow-Level Radar Data

Using NOAA’s S-band High-Power Snow-Level Radar (HPSLR), a technique for estimating the rain drop size distribution (DSD) above the radar is presented. This technique assumes the DSD can be described by a four parameter, generalized gamma distribution (GGD). Using the radar’s measured average Doppler velocity spectrum and a value (assumed, measured, or estimated) of the vertical air motion w, an estimate of the GGD is obtained. Four different methods can be used to obtain w. One method that estimates a mean mass-weighted raindrop diameter D m from the measured reflectivity Z produces realistic DSDs compared to prior literature examples. These estimated DSDs provide evidence that the radar can retrieve the smaller drop sizes constituting the “drizzle” mode part of the DSD. Here, this estimation technique was applied to 19 h of observations from Hankins, North Carolina. Results support the concept that DSDs can be modeled using GGDs with a limited range of parameters. Further work is needed to validate the described technique for estimating DSDs in more varied precipitation types and to verify the vertical air motion estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Realism of the Rain Microphysics Representation of a Squall Line in the WRF Model. Part II: Sensitivity Studies on the Rain Drop Size Distributions

A comparison between retrieved properties of the rain drop size distributions (DSDs) from multifrequency cloud radar observations and WRF Model results using either the Morrison or the Thompson bulk microphysics scheme is performed in order to evaluate the model’s ability to predict the rain microphysics. This comparison reveals discrepancies in the vertical profile of the rain DSDs for the stratiform region of the squall-line system observed on 12 June 2011 over Oklahoma. Based on numerical sensitivity analyses, this study addresses the bias at the top of the rain layer and the vertical evolution of the DSD properties (i.e., of D m and N$^{*}_{0}$). In this way, the Thompson scheme is used to explore the sensitivity to the melting process. Moreover, using the Thompson and Morrison schemes, the sensitivity of the DSD vertical evolution to different breakup and self-collection parameterizations is studied. Results show that the DSDs are strongly dependent on the representation of the melting process in the Thompson scheme. In the Morrison scheme, the simulations with more efficient breakup reproduce the DSD properties with better fidelity. Here, this study highlights how the inaccuracies in simulated D m and N$^{*}_{0}$ for both microphysics schemes can impact the evaporation rate, which is systematically underestimated in the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of the Manaus pollution plume on the microphysical properties of Amazonian warm-phase clouds in the wet season

The remote atmosphere over the Amazon can be similar to oceanic regions in terms of aerosol conditions and cloud type formations. This is especially true during the wet season. The main aerosol-related disturbances over the Amazon have both natural sources, such as dust transport from Africa, and anthropogenic sources, such as biomass burning or urban pollution. The present work considers the impacts of the latter on the microphysical properties of warm-phase clouds by analyzing observations of the interactions between the Manaus pollution plume and its surroundings, as part of the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment. The analyzed period corresponds to the wet season (specifically from February to March 2014 and corresponding to the first Intensive Operating Period (IOP1) of GoAmazon2014/5). The droplet size distributions reported are in the range 1 µm ≤ D ≤ 50 µm in order to capture the processes leading up to the precipitation formation. The wet season largely presents a clean background atmosphere characterized by frequent rain showers. As such, the contrast between background clouds and those affected by the Manaus pollution can be observed and detailed. The focus is on the characteristics of the initial microphysical properties in cumulus clouds predominantly at their early stages. The pollution-affected clouds are found to have smaller effective diameters and higher droplet number concentrations. The differences range from 10 to 40 % for the effective diameter and are as high as 1000% for droplet concentration for the same vertical levels. The growth rates of droplets with altitude are slower for pollution-affected clouds (2.90 compared to 5.59 µm km –1 ), as explained by the absence of bigger droplets at the onset of cloud development. Clouds under background conditions have higher concentrations of larger droplets (> 20 µm) near the cloud base, which would contribute significantly to the growth rates through the collision–coalescence process. The overall shape of the droplet size distribution (DSD) does not appear to be predominantly determined by updraught strength, especially beyond the 20 µm range. The aerosol conditions play a major role in that case. However, the updraughts modulate the DSD concentrations and are responsible for the vertical transport of water in the cloud. The larger droplets found in background clouds are associated with weak water vapour competition and a bimodal distribution of droplet sizes in the lower levels of the cloud, which enables an earlier initiation of the collision–coalescence process. This paper shows that the pollution produced by Manaus significantly affects warm-phase microphysical properties of the surrounding clouds by changing the initial DSD formation. The corresponding effects on ice-phase processes and precipitation formation will be the focus of future endeavors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A potential method for the estimation of drop size distribution from a dual-wavelength airborne radar

In order to investigate the role of the drop size distribution (DSD) from a dual-wavelength airborne radar and to recover profiled rain rates, a procedure is described for the purpose of estimating the DSD. The method differs from previous approaches in that it provides 2n + 1 parameters of the profiled DSD (where n is the number of range gates) and it uses a recursive procedure beginning at the range gate near the surface progressing backwards toward the storm top. The method is argued to be useful both as a diagnostic tool and as a means by which more detailed information on the vertical structure of the precipitation can be obtained.

Meneghini, R.↗

Structural Damage Prediction and Analysis for Hypervelocity Impact. UDRI Light Gas Gun Test Data Summaries

The HEX bumper was originally developed for use with the Defensive Shields Demonstration (DSD) Program. The University of Dayton Research Institute was a subcontractor to the Martin Marietta Astronautics Group in Denver Colorado at the time the HEX bumper was designed for use on the DSD Program. The design originated at the University and was essentially made available to interested parties. All HEX bumpers used in the DSD Program were fabricated at the University by rolling sheet stock through a special set of rollers. Two pieces of 3003-H14 aluminum sheet were rolled to produce the bumpers evaluated in Shots 4-1302 and 4-1304. A brief summary of the results of these tests is given in below. Contact prints of the multiple-exposure, orthogonal view radiographs of the debris clouds produced by the tests are attached. A sketch of the HEX bumper design is also attached.

Source record↗

Comparison of Radar Rainfall Retrieval Algorithms in Convective Rain During TOGA COARE

The authors compare deterministic and stochastic rain-rate retrieval algorithms by applying them to 14-GHz nadir-looking airborne radar reflectivity profiles acquired in tropical convective rain during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment, The deterministic algorithms both use the path-integrated attenuation (PIA), measured by the surface reference technique, as a constraint. One deterministic algorithm corrects the k-R relation, while the second corrects the Z-R relation. The stochastic algorithms are based on applying an extended Kalman filter to the reflectivity profile. One employs radar reflectivity only; the other additionally uses the PIA. The authors find that the stochastic algorithm, which uses the PIA, is the most robust algorithm with regard to incorrect assumptions about the drop size distribution (DSD). The deterministic algorithm that uses the PIA to adjust the Z-R relation is also fairly robust and produces rain rates similar to the stochastic algorithm that uses the PIA, The deterministic algorithm that adjusts only the k-R relation and the stochastic radar-only algorithm are more sensitive to assumptions about the DSD. It is likely that they underestimate convective rainfall, especially if the DSD is erroneously assumed to be appropriate for stratiform rain conditions.

Durden, Stephen L.↗

Phase Transition in Dusty Plasmas: A Microphysical Description

Dust grains immersed in plasma discharges acquire a large negative charge and settle into a dust cloud at the edge of the sheath. In this region, the plasma ions stream toward the electrode at a velocity u approx. cs=(T(sub e)/m(sub i))(exp 1/2). Experimentally at sufficiently high gas pressure P, the random kinetic energy of the grains is damped by gas friction, and the grains are strongly coupled and self-organize into a crystalline configuration. For lower pressures despite the dissipation of grain kinetic energy to gas friction, the dust grains reach a steady-state kinetic temperature T(sub d) which is much larger than the temperature of any other component in the plasma. T(sub d) is so large that the dust acts like a fluid. We have used the dynamically shielded dust (DSD) model to simulate these physical processes. We find that the known experimental features are nicely reproduced in the simulations, and that additional features are revealed. In the figure we plot the variation of T(sub d) as P is continuously varied in a DSD code run. A marked difference is evident between the critical pressure P(sub m) for the melting transition as P is decreased, and the critical pressure P(sub c) for the condensation transition as P is increased. For P(sub m) is less than P is less than P(sub c), mixed phase states are seen. This hysteresis occurs because the instability which triggers melting is different from the instability that heats the dust in the fluid phase and inhibits freezing. At low pressure, the dust is subject to a two-stream instability with the ions. This instability is responsible for the high temperature of the dust at low pressure. The basic physics underlying the melting transition has been elucidated in a series of papers. We are developing a first-principles analytic approach to the melting transition, which embodies the same physics that is present in the DSD code.

Joyce, Glenn↗

Retrieval of Hydrometeor Drop Size Distributions from TRMM Field Campaign Profiler Doppler Velocity Spectra Observations

Consistent with the original proposal and work plan, this project focused on estimating the raindrop size distributions (DSDs) retrieved from vertically pointing Doppler radar profilers and analyzing the relationship of the retrieved DSDs with the dynamics of the precipitation processes. The first phase of this project focused on developing the model to retrieve the DSD from the observed Doppler velocity spectra. The second phase used this model to perform DSD retrievals from the profiler observations made during the TRMM Ground Validation Field Campaigns of TEFLUN-B, TRMM-LBA, and KWAJEX. The third phase of this project established collaborations with scientists involved with each field campaign in order to validate the profiler DSD estimates and to enable the profiler retrievals to be used in their research. Through these collaborations, the retrieved DSDs were placed into context with the dynamical processes of the observed precipitating cloud systems.

Williams, Christopher R.↗

A Three-Parameter Inversion of the Drop Size Distribution Using NASA/TRMM Microwave Link Data

Attenuation measurements at 25 and 38 GHz performed with the NASA/TRMM Microwave Link provide information about the drop size distribution (DSD) along the propagation path. Additional path-average measurements along the Link path, such as a third attenuation measurement or the rain rate from well-calibrated raingauges, can provide further DSD information. This paper explores an inversion procedure for determining simultaneously three parameters of a gamma DSD by using three measurements. Also, some preliminary results obtained using Link data are presented.

Rincon, Rafael F.↗

Combined Radar and Radiometer Analysis of Precipitation Profiles for a Parametric Retrieval Algorithm

A methodology to analyze precipitation profiles using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and precipitation radar (PR) is proposed. Rainfall profiles are retrieved from PR measurements, defined as the best-fit solution selected from precalculated profiles by cloud-resolving models (CRMs), under explicitly defined assumptions of drop size distribution (DSD) and ice hydrometeor models. The PR path-integrated attenuation (PIA), where available, is further used to adjust DSD in a manner that is similar to the PR operational algorithm. Combined with the TMI-retrieved nonraining geophysical parameters, the three-dimensional structure of the geophysical parameters is obtained across the satellite-observed domains. Microwave brightness temperatures are then computed for a comparison with TMI observations to examine if the radar-retrieved rainfall is consistent in the radiometric measurement space. The inconsistency in microwave brightness temperatures is reduced by iterating the retrieval procedure with updated assumptions of the DSD and ice-density models. The proposed methodology is expected to refine the a priori rain profile database and error models for use by parametric passive microwave algorithms, aimed at the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, as well as a future TRMM algorithms.

Masunaga, Hirohiko↗

3D Drop Size Distribution Extrapolation Algorithm Using a Single Disdrometer

Determining the Z-R relationship (where Z is the radar reflectivity factor and R is rainfall rate) from disdrometer data has been and is a common goal of cloud physicists and radar meteorology researchers. The usefulness of this quantity has traditionally been limited since radar represents a volume measurement, while a disdrometer corresponds to a point measurement. To solve that problem, a 3D-DSD (drop-size distribution) method of determining an equivalent 3D Z-R was developed at the University of Central Florida and tested at the Kennedy Space Center, FL. Unfortunately, that method required a minimum of three disdrometers clustered together within a microscale network (.1-km separation). Since most commercial disdrometers used by the radar meteorology/cloud physics community are high-cost instruments, three disdrometers located within a microscale area is generally not a practical strategy due to the limitations of these kinds of research budgets. A relatively simple modification to the 3D-DSD algorithm provides an estimate of the 3D-DSD and therefore, a 3D Z-R measurement using a single disdrometer. The basis of the horizontal extrapolation is mass conservation of a drop size increment, employing the mass conservation equation. For vertical extrapolation, convolution of a drop size increment using raindrop terminal velocity is used. Together, these two independent extrapolation techniques provide a complete 3DDSD estimate in a volume around and above a single disdrometer. The estimation error is lowest along a vertical plane intersecting the disdrometer position in the direction of wind advection. This work demonstrates that multiple sensors are not required for successful implementation of the 3D interpolation/extrapolation algorithm. This is a great benefit since it is seldom that multiple sensors in the required spatial arrangement are available for this type of analysis. The original software (developed at the University of Central Florida, 1998.- 2000) has also been modified to read standardized disdrometer data format (Joss-Waldvogel format). Other modifications to the software involve accounting for vertical ambient wind motion, as well as evaporation of the raindrop during its flight time.

Lane, John↗