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DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lower-hybrid drift waves and their interaction with plasmas in a 3D symmetric reconnection simulation with zero guide field

We investigate lower-hybrid drift waves (LHDW) in symmetric magnetic reconnection with zero guide field using three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations. The long-wavelength mode with kρiρe∼1 develops in the bifurcated electron current layer around the X-line within the width of the electron meandering motion from the mid-plane, where ρi(e) is the ion (electron) gyroradius. The short-wavelength mode with kρe∼1 develops in the separatrix region downstream of the electron outflow jet, producing electron vortices in the background flow frame. Electrons follow the E × B drift with corrections from the diamagnetic drift and are heated inside the vortices with diverging electric fields. In the vortices, ions have comparable E × B and inertia drifts, which together mostly cancel the diamagnetic drift. Toward the center of diverging field vortices, ions are decelerated, leading to a decrease in the perpendicular temperature, while the loss of low-energy ions results in an increase in the parallel temperature. Parallel electric fields exist as a combination of the LHDW wave field projected to the magnetic field direction and the penetration of whistler waves that are mainly outside of the LHDW layer. The magnetic flux tube is twisted in the vortices. The twist may potentially lead to slippage reconnection, as indicated by the non-uniform parallel potential variation across field lines, while the periodic variations of the twisting directions are a limiting factor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Drift orbit islands of energetic particles due to 3D fields in ITER

In this study, we report a comparative study of the orbit islands formed by the guiding center drift motion of test energetic particles (EPs), including both high-energy deuterium ions and fusion-born α-particles, with respect to the magnetic islands formed by tracing the field lines, for an ITER plasma representing the 15 MA baseline scenario. The particle drift orbit is modified by the presence of static resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) of different toroidal mode numbers n (n = 1 and 3 in this study), forming orbit islands in the Poincaré plane by passing EPs. The key findings are as follows. (i) With an n = 1 RMP field, the size of the orbit islands combined with the total RMP field, including the plasma response, is about three times smaller than that obtained by assuming the corresponding vacuum field. (ii) The orbit island size is not sensitive to the EP energy, and is comparable to those of the magnetic islands. (iii) Passing EPs with outward radial orbital drift form orbit islands that shift inward with respect to the corresponding magnetic islands, and vice versa. This radial shift, ΔΨ, measured in the normalized equilibrium poloidal flux, is quantified as ΔΨ ≃ 0.03X for the ITER baseline plasma and assuming n = 1 RMPs, with $X\equiv {(M/{M}_{\mathrm{p}})}^{1/2}{(E[\mathrm{M}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{V}])}^{1/2}{Z}^{-1}$, where M is the particle mass, Mp is the proton mass, E is the particle energy, and Z is the particle charge number. (iv) Trapped EPs do not form drift orbit islands, even in the presence of the 3D fields produced by the 90 kAt ELM control coil current in ITER, and thus possess good confinement properties. Nevertheless, the deformation of the trapped particle drift orbits in the Poincaré plane shows that the canonical toroidal angular momentum of EPs is no longer conserved in the presence of the RMP fields.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Turbulent drifts of impurity ions as an explanation for anomalous radial transport in the far-SOL of DIII-D

Abstract Successful fusion reactor operation relies on minimal core contamination by impurities, otherwise too much power may be radiated and harm performance. This requires reliable predictions of impurity transport from the scrape-off layer (SOL) into the core, beyond the traditional ‘anomalous’ diffusion approach. We report a set of far-SOL tungsten transport simulations that demonstrate the role of turbulent drifts on radial impurity transport. A turbulent plasma background is simulated using the gyrokinetic SOL code Gkeyll. Tungsten ions are followed within the plasma background using only their drifts. We find that tungsten tends to travel radially outwards with velocities between v r = 300–1200 m s −1 primarily due to polarization drift. We also extract an anomalous radial diffusion coefficient that varies from D r anom = 5–20 m 2 s −1 . These results are compared to and agree with previous interpretive modeling results. We also show how the turbulent polarization drift can transport some tungsten ions from the wall inwards with effective pinch velocities up to 10 000 m s −1 . We conclude that turbulent drifts are a likely explanation for historically anomalous radial impurity transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Plasma rotation and diamagnetic drift effects on the resistive wall modes in the negative triangularity tokamaks

Abstract It was found previously that the negative triangularity (NT) configuration is more MHD-unstable for low n modes than the positive triangularity (PT) case, although the situation is reversed for intermediate n modes and the NT configuration becomes more stable for intermediate n modes ( n = 3 − 10 ) (Zheng et al 2021 Nucl. Fusion 61 116014). Here, n is the toroidal mode number. In this work, we extend the studies to include the rotation effects, as well as the diamagnetic drift effects, to see how the resistive wall modes (RWMs) in the NT configuration are affected as compared with the PT configuration. This is particularly motivated by noting that the wall interface with the plasma is quite different between the NT and PT configurations. It affects the plasma rotation and diamagnetic drift effects on the low n RWM. We consider the DIII-D-NT-experiment equilibrium reconstructed by the EFIT code. Based on the equilibrium g-file, the extended equilibria are constructed with the VMEC code by varying the beta values while keeping the pressure and poloidal current flux profiles basically unchanged. The bootstrap current contribution to the equilibria is taken into account with the Sauter formula. The MHD stability is then computed using the AEGIS code with the rotation and diamagnetic drift effects taken into account. We found that, although the NT configuration is less stable for n = 1 MHD modes, the rotation and diamagnetic drift stabilization effects on RWMs are more effective in the NT configuration than in the PT one. Note that even in the PT case, the stabilization of RWMs by the rotation and kinetic effects is critical. Because the low-n RWMs in the regular NT case are more unstable, the rotation and diamagnetic drift stabilization effects found in this research are important for the NT tokamak concept.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combined Influence of Rotation and Scrape-Off Layer Drifts on Recycling Asymmetries in Tokamak Plasmas

Coupled 2D fluid-kinetic simulations of a DIII-D high confinement tokamak plasma show that plasma rotation coupled with drift effects near the plasma edge play a significant role in the creation of the observed poloidal distribution of neutrals. It is observed that including either drift or rotation effects enhances particle flux at the inner target in the case of ion 𝐵×∇𝐵 drift toward the 𝑋-point. However, the particle flux asymmetry is significantly higher with the combination of drifts and rotation than either effect alone. The heightened particle flux asymmetry allows for improved simulation of the strong in-out asymmetry of the Lyman-𝛼 brightness profiles measured in the experiment. Enhancement of radial transport of parallel momentum changes the upstream scrape-off layer flow pattern, increasing the fraction of deuterium flux that reaches the inboard divertor entrance while lowering that which arrives at the outboard. In conclusion, this Letter indicates that by combining drifts, rotation, and viscous coupling, existing boundary plasma models can achieve a satisfactory agreement with experimentally measured neutral asymmetries.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

FAST Drift Scan Survey for Ηι Intensity Mapping: I. Preliminary Data Analysis

This work presents the initial results of the drift-scan observation for the neutral hydrogen (Hi) intensity mapping survey with the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical radio Telescope (FAST). The data analyzed in this work were collected in night observations from 2019 through 2021. The primary findings are based on 28 hr of drift-scan observation carried out over 7 nights in 2021, which covers 60 deg 2 sky area. Our main findings are, first, our calibration strategy can successfully correct both the temporal and bandpass gain variation over the 4 hr drift-scan observation. Second, the continuum maps of the surveyed region are made with frequency resolution of 28 kHz and pixel area of $_{2.95\,{\mathrm{arcmin}}^{2}}$. The pixel noise levels of the continuum maps are slightly higher than the forecast assuming $T$ sys = 20 K, which are 36.0 mK (for 10.0 s integration time) at the 1050–1150 MHz band, and 25.9 mK (for 16.7 s integration time) at the 1323–1450 MHz band, respectively. Third, the flux-weighted differential number count is consistent with the NRAO-VLA Sky Survey (NVSS) catalog down to the confusion limit ~7 mJy beam –1 . Finally, the continuum flux measurements of the sources are consistent with those found in the literature. The difference in the flux measurement of 81 isolated NVSS sources is about 6.3%. Our research offers a systematic analysis for the FAST Hi intensity mapping drift-scan survey and serves as a helpful resource for further cosmology and associated galaxies sciences with the FAST drift-scan survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1975

Note on the electric splitting of drift shells

A nonrelativistic analysis is presented for the deviation of a particle from its dipole magnetic drift shell in the presence of an electric field. An alternative definition of weak shell splitting is introduced in which the corotation drift velocity need not be small with respect to the azimuthal magnetic drift velocity. Approximate explicit solutions are obtained for the asymmetry of drift shells in the strong shell splitting case, i.e., for the case where the cross-magnetosphere potential drop is not small compared to particle kinetic energy. Upper limits to drift shell asymmetry are obtained from considerations of the Alfven layer.

Kivelson, M. G.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Prediction of ion drift effects on spacecraft floating potentials

The plasma environment of high altitude spacecraft was observed to involve ion drift velocities which sometimes become comparable to ion mean thermal speeds. Such drifts may cause an electrically isolated spacecraft surface to float at a substantially increased negative potential if it is simultaneously shaded and downstream relative to the drift direction. The results showed that: (1) the ion speed ratio at which drift effects become important (i.e. change the floating potential by at least 10 percent) can be as low as 0.1, and may be decreased if the ambient electrons are non-Maxwellian; (2) the effects of ion speed ratio increase with increasing ion-to-electron temperature ratio; and (3) negative floating potentials for drifting Maxwellian ion velocity distributions with speed ratio unity are typically about twice as large as the corresponding potentials for nondrifting conditions.

Chang, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Particle drift, diffusion, and acceleration at shocks

The gradient and curvature drifts implicit in change of the ambient magnetic field at a hydromagnetic shock wave are incorporated into the diffusive theory of shock acceleration of charged particles. The conventional jump condition at the shock is modified by a term incorporating the large drift along the shock plane. This term vanished identically for one-dimensional systems, but must be included in general for shocks which are finite in transverse extent or which have transverse structure. It is found that the effect of the drift is such that the transverse drift rate is proportional to the acceleration rate, and for perpendicular shocks is exactly equal to the rate of change of energy in the V x B electric field observed in the shock frame. This establishes a connection with the 'shock drift' models which neglect diffusion.

Jokipii, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Calculated nighttime eastward plasma drift velocities at low latitudes and their solar cycle dependence

After calculating ambient electron densities as a function of altitude, latitude and local time, a simplified expression is used to calculate F-region eastward plasma drifts given a zonal neutral wind model. The derived eastward plasma drift on a magnetic flux tube is examined as a function of the flux tube apex height. If the neutral wind is assumed to be independent of latitude the plasma drift maximizes along the flux tube which intercepts the F-region peak concentration at the Appleton anomaly. Above this altitude the velocity decreases to reflect a decrease in the flux tube integrated F-region Pedersen conductivity. For a latitude dependent wind the plasma drift tends to maximize along the flux tube which intercepts the F-peak at the dip equator. Above this altitude the drift decreases to reflect the latitude distribution of the wind.

Anderson, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The role of drifts in diffusive shock acceleration

The role played by shock-associated drifts during the diffusive acceleration of charged particles at collisionless MHD shocks is evaluated. In the rest frame of the shock, the total energy gained by a particle is shown to result from two coupled acceleration mechanisms, the usual first-order Fermi mechanism and the drift mechanism. When averaged over a distribution of particles, the ratio of the drift-associated energy gain to the total energy is found to be independent of the total energy at a given theta1 (the angle between the shock normal and the unperturbed upstream magnetic field) in agreement with theoretical predictions. No evidence is found for drift-associated deceleration, suggesting that drifts always augment acceleration.

Decker, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1988

An assessment of the long-term drift in TOMS total ozone data, based on comparison with the Dobson network

Seven years of total ozone data derived from the TOMS instrument on Nimbus-7 are compared with results from 41 Dobson stations. In this study, a significant improvement in fit from previous studies is obtained using a model which assumes a change in the rate of drift between TOMS and Dobson around the middle of 1982. Results indicate that the TOMS measurements have drifted relative to the Dobson stations with a two-part linear trend of -0.25 + or - 0.17 percent per year during the period from launch to 6/30/82, and -0.51 + or - 0.21 percent per year during 7/1/82 - 10/31/85. The causes of this drift cannot be definitively separated between residual uncorrected drift in the TOMS instrument (a similar drift is apparent in the SBUV-Dobson comparisons), limited sensitivity of the TOMS to increases in tropospheric ozone, and the effect of local increases in pollution levels on individual Dobson stations.

Fleig, Albert J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Drift wave instability in the Io plasma torus

A linear normal mode analysis of the drift wave instability in the Io plasma torus was carried out on the basis of the Richmond (1973) and Huang et al. (1990) analyses of drift waves in the vicinity of the earth's plasmapause. Results indicate that the outer torus boundary is linearly unstable to the growth of electrostatic drift waves. It is shown that the linear growth rate is proportional to the ion drift frequency and to the ratio of the flux tube charge content to the Jovian ionospheric Pedersen conductance. It is also shown that various theoretical models of global radial transport in Jupiter's atmosphere (including corotating convection, interchange diffusion, and transient flux tube convection) can be understood as plausible nonlinear evolutions of electrostatic drift waves.

Huang, T. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Low latitude electrodynamic plasma drifts - A review

The characteristics and driving mechanisms of low latitude ExB plasma drifts and electric fields particularly at F-region heights are reviewed. It is concluded that the general characteristics of the quiet-time plasma can be explained as resulting from E- and F-region dynamo and interhemispheric coupling processes. The disturbance dynamo effects are found to be responsible for the drift perturbations following the periods of enhanced magnetic activity. The prompt penetration of high-latitude electric fields to lower latitudes produces large perturbations on the upward/poleward drifts, but has no significant effect on the low-latitude and the equatorial zonal drifts. Detailed low-latitude and global numerical models for studying the characteristics of plasma drifts are capable of reproducing the latitudinal variation of the perturbation electric fields and their diurnal variations.

Fejer, B. G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Particle drift in the Earth's plasma sheet

We generalize the derivation of the average gradient/curvature-drift for a flux tube filled with an isotropic distribution of particles at specified kinetic energy. The present treatment is restricted to a two-dimensional magnetic field with zero electric field, but it includes all chaotic and Speiser orbits, which do not correspond to the simple picture of gradient/curvature drift. We assume that particles are evenly distributed throughout the regions of phase space allowed by their energy and canonical momentum. This assumption is closely related but not exactly equivalent to the assumption of isotropic pitch-angle distribution. Our derivation assumes that the maximum Larmor radius is small compared to the scale length for equatorial variations in the flux tube volume, but it does not involve any restrictions on the curvature of the field line. The resulting expression for the drift rate is valid for situations where the particle drift velocity is comparable to the thermal speed in some regions. The apparent implication of this generalized treatment is that the existence of very complex non-adiabatic particle trajectories in the plasma sheet may not invalidate previous estimates of the average rate of particle drift out the sides of the tail, estimates that were made under the assumption of simple guiding-center drifts.

Wolf, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Initial Results of DC Electric Fields, Associated Plasma Drifts, Magnetic Fields, and Plasma Waves Observed on the C/NOFS Satellite

Initial results are presented from the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, a mission designed to understand, model, and forecast the presence of equatorial ionospheric irregularities. The VEFI instrument includes a vector DC electric field detector, a fixed-bias Langmuir probe operating in the ion saturation regime, a flux gate magnetometer, an optical lightning detector, and associated electronics including a burst memory. Compared to data obtained during more active solar conditions, the ambient DC electric fields and their associated E x B drifts are variable and somewhat weak, typically < 1 mV/m. Although average drift directions show similarities to those previously reported, eastward/outward during day and westward/downward at night, this pattern varies significantly with longitude and is not always present. Daytime vertical drifts near the magnetic equator are largest after sunrise, with smaller average velocities after noon. Little or no pre-reversal enhancement in the vertical drift near sunset is observed, attributable to the solar minimum conditions creating a much reduced neutral dynamo at the satellite altitude. The nighttime ionosphere is characterized by larger amplitude, structured electric fields, even where the plasma density appears nearly quiescent. Data from successive orbits reveal that the vertical drifts and plasma density are both clearly organized with longitude. The spread-F density depletions and corresponding electric fields that have been detected thus far have displayed a preponderance to appear between midnight and dawn. Associated with the narrow plasma depletions that are detected are broad spectra of electric field and plasma density irregularities for which a full vector set of measurements is available for detailed study. Finally, the data set includes a wide range of ELF/VLF/HF oscillations corresponding to a variety of plasma waves, in particular banded ELF hiss, whistlers, and lower hybrid wave turbulence triggered by lightning-induced sferics. The VEFI data represents a new set of measurements that are germane to numerous fundamental aspects of the electrodynamics and irregularities inherent to the Earth's low latitude ionosphere.

Pfaff, R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

DC Electric Fields and Associated Plasma Drifts Observed with the C/NOFS Satellite

Initial DC electric field observations and associated plasma drifts are presented from the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite. We present statistical averages of the vector fields for the first year of operations that include both the zonal and radial components of the resulting E x B plasma flows at low latitudes. Magnetic field data from the VEFI science magnetometer are used to compute the plasma flows. The DC electric field detector reveals zonal and radial electric fields that undergo strong diurnal variations, typically displaying eastward and outward-directed fields during the day and westward and downward-directed fields at night. There is considerable variation in the large scale DC electric field data, in both the daytime and nighttime cases, with enhanced structures typically observed at night. In general, the measured zonal DC electric field amplitudes include excursions that extend within the 0.4 - 2 m V/m range, corresponding to E x B drifts of the order of 30-150 m/s. The average vertical or radial electric fields may exceed the zonal fields in amplitude by a factor of 1.5 to 2. Although the data compare well, in a general sense, with previous satellite observations and statistical patterns of vertical ion drifts, the E x B drifts we report from C/NOFS rarely show a pronounced pre-reversal enhancement after sunset. We attribute this to a combination of extreme solar minimum conditions and the fact that the C/NOFS orbit of 401 by 867 km carries the probes essentially above the lower altitude regions where the wind-driven dynamo might be expected to create enhanced upwards drifts in the early evening. Evidence for wavenumber 4 tidal effects and other longitudinal signatures have been detected and will be presented. We also discuss off-equatorial electric fields and their relation to the ambient plasma density.

Pfaff, R.↗