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DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reconstructing the kinematics of deep inelastic scattering with deep learning

We introduce a method to reconstruct the kinematics of neutral-current deep inelastic scattering (DIS) using a deep neural network (DNN). Unlike traditional methods, it exploits the full kinematic information of both the scattered electron and the hadronic-final state, and it accounts for QED radiation by identifying events with radiated photons and event-level momentum imbalance. The method is studied with simulated events at HERA and the future Electron–Ion Collider (EIC). We show that the DNN method outperforms all the traditional methods over the full phase space, improving resolution and reducing bias. Our method has the potential to extend the kinematic reach of future experiments at the EIC, and thus their discovery potential in polarized and nuclear DIS.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning for Subgrid‐Scale Turbulence Modeling in Large‐Eddy Simulations of the Convective Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Abstract In large‐eddy simulations, subgrid‐scale (SGS) processes are parameterized as a function of filtered grid‐scale variables. First‐order, algebraic SGS models are based on the eddy‐viscosity assumption, which does not always hold for turbulence. Here we apply supervised deep neural networks (DNNs) to learn SGS stresses from a set of neighboring coarse‐grained velocity from direct numerical simulations of the convective boundary layer at friction Reynolds numbers Re τ up to 1243 without invoking the eddy‐viscosity assumption. The DNN model was found to produce higher correlation between SGS stresses compared to the Smagorinsky model and the Smagorinsky‐Bardina mixed model in the surface and mixed layers and can be applied to different grid resolutions and various stability conditions ranging from near neutral to very unstable. The DNN model can capture key statistics of turbulence in a posteriori (online) tests when applied to large‐eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Experiments for Fractured Rock Characterization: Theoretical Analysis and Inverse Modeling

Abstract Field‐scale properties of fractured rocks play a crucial role in many subsurface applications, yet methodologies for identification of the statistical parameters of a discrete fracture network (DFN) are scarce. We present an inversion technique to infer two such parameters, fracture density and fractal dimension, from cross‐borehole thermal experiments data. It is based on a particle‐based heat‐transfer model, whose evaluation is accelerated with a deep neural network (DNN) surrogate that is integrated into a grid search. The DNN is trained on a small number of the heat‐transfer model runs and predicts the cumulative density function of the thermal field. The latter is used to compute fine posterior distributions of the (to be estimated) parameters. Our synthetic experiments reveal that fracture density is well constrained by data, while fractal dimension is harder to determine. Adding nonuniform prior information related to the DFN connectivity improves the inference of this parameter.

Zhou, Zitong↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗

DOE OSTI2023

A deep neural network regressor for phase constitution estimation in the high entropy alloy system Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Mn-Nb-Ni

High Entropy Alloys (HEAs) are composed of more than one principal element and constitute a major paradigm in metals research. The HEA space is vast and an exhaustive exploration is improbable. Therefore, a thorough estimation of the phases present in the HEA is of paramount importance for alloy design. Machine Learning presents a feasible and non-expensive method for predicting possible new HEAs on-the-fly. A deep neural network (DNN) model for the elemental system of: Mn, Ni, Fe, Al, Cr, Nb, and Co is developed using a dataset generated by high-throughput computational thermodynamic calculations using Thermo-Calc. The features list used for the neural network is developed based on literature and freely available databases. A feature significance analysis matches the reported HEAs phase constitution trends on elemental properties and further expands it by providing so far-overlooked features. The final regressor has a coefficient of determination ( r 2 ) greater than 0.96 for identifying the most recurrent phases and the functionality is tested by running optimization tasks that simulate those required in alloy design. The DNN developed constitutes an example of an emulator that can be used in fast, real-time materials discovery/design tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probing the self-ionization of liquid water with ab initio deep potential molecular dynamics

The chemical equilibrium between self-ionized and molecular water dictates the acid–base chemistry in aqueous solutions, yet understanding the microscopic mechanisms of water self-ionization remains experimentally and computationally challenging. Herein, Density Functional Theory (DFT)–based deep neural network (DNN) potentials are combined with enhanced sampling techniques and a global acid–base collective variable to perform extensive atomistic simulations of water self-ionization for model systems of increasing size. The explicit inclusion of long-range electrostatic interactions in the DNN potential is found to be crucial to accurately reproduce the DFT free energy profile of solvated water ion pairs in small (64 and 128 H 2 O) cells. The reversible work to separate the hydroxide and hydronium to a distance S is found to converge for simulation cells containing more than 500 H 2 O, and a distance of ∼ 8 Å is the threshold beyond which the work to further separate the two ions becomes approximately zero. The slow convergence of the potential of mean force with system size is related to a restructuring of water and an increase of the local order around the water ions. Calculation of the dissociation equilibrium constant illustrates the key role of long-range electrostatics and entropic effects in the water autoionization process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of a radial flow profile with eddy current flow meters and deep neural networks

Eddy current flow meters (ECFMs) measure flows of conductive fluids. Recent interest in ECFMs has increased due to applications in advanced nuclear reactors. ECFMs are well suited for such applications, as they can provide non-invasive measurements of flow in fluids that are often difficult to measure. Traditionally, ECFMs are operated using an alternating current at a single frequency, limiting ECFMs to measure average fluid velocities, blockages, or voids. Here, we expand the capabilities of ECFMs by measuring the fluid radial velocity profile of liquid mercury. To accomplish this, we made several ECFM sensitivity measurements at a range of frequencies. Different frequencies vary the electromagnetic skin depth of the device. By adjusting frequencies, we probed the fluid velocity at various radial locations and constructed a flow-velocity profile. The relationship between the ECFM measurements and velocity profile is nonlinear and requires solving an inverse problem. Using electromagnetic finite-element simulations to train a deep neural network (DNN), we created a model that provides a stable general relationship between the sensitivity measurements of an ECFM and the fluid velocity profile. Using ECFM measurements of liquid mercury, our DNN model calculates a flow profile that agrees well with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. This technique has potential to improve flow monitoring for optimization, safe operation of conductive fluid loops, and/or validating complex CFD models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distilling particle knowledge for fast reconstruction at high-energy physics experiments

Knowledge distillation is a form of model compression that allows artificial neural networks of different sizes to learn from one another. Its main application is the compactification of large deep neural networks to free up computational resources, in particular on edge devices. In this article, we consider proton-proton collisions at the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) and demonstrate a successful knowledge transfer from an event-level graph neural network (GNN) to a particle-level small deep neural network (DNN). Our algorithm, DistillNet, is a DNN that is trained to learn about the provenance of particles, as provided by the soft labels that are the GNN outputs, to predict whether or not a particle originates from the primary interaction vertex. The results indicate that for this problem, which is one of the main challenges at the HL-LHC, there is minimal loss during the transfer of knowledge to the small student network, while improving significantly the computational resource needs compared to the teacher. This is demonstrated for the distilled student network on a CPU, as well as for a quantized and pruned student network deployed on a field programmable gate array. Our study proves that knowledge transfer between networks of different complexity can be used for fast artificial intelligence (AI) in high-energy physics that improves the expressiveness of observables over non-AI-based reconstruction algorithms. Such an approach can become essential at the HL-LHC experiments, e.g. to comply with the resource budget of their trigger stages.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural network emulation of flow in heavy-ion collisions at intermediate energies

Applications of new techniques in machine learning are speeding up progress in research in various fields. In this work, we construct and evaluate a deep neural network (DNN) to be used within a Bayesian statistical framework as a faster and more reliable alternative to the Gaussian process (GP) emulator of an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions at intermediate beam energies. We found strong evidence of the DNN being able to emulate the IBUU simulator's prediction on the strengths of protons' directed and elliptical flow very efficiently even with small training datasets and with accuracy about ten times higher than the GP. Here, limitations of our present work and future improvements are also discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Group-equivariant autoencoder for identifying spontaneously broken symmetries

We introduce the group-equivariant autoencoder (GE autoencoder), a deep neural network (DNN) method that locates phase boundaries by determining which symmetries of the Hamiltonian have spontaneously broken at each temperature. We use group theory to deduce which symmetries of the system remain intact in all phases, and then use this information to constrain the parameters of the GE autoencoder such that the encoder learns an order parameter invariant to these “never-broken” symmetries. This procedure produces a dramatic reduction in the number of free parameters such that the GE-autoencoder size is independent of the system size. We include symmetry regularization terms in the loss function of the GE autoencoder so that the learned order parameter is also equivariant to the remaining symmetries of the system. By examining the group representation by which the learned order parameter transforms, we are then able to extract information about the associated spontaneous symmetry breaking. We test the GE autoencoder on the 2D classical ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic Ising models, finding that the GE autoencoder (1) accurately determines which symmetries have spontaneously broken at each temperature; (2) estimates the critical temperature in the thermodynamic limit with greater accuracy, robustness, and time efficiency than a symmetry-agnostic baseline autoencoder; and (3) detects the presence of an external symmetry-breaking magnetic field with greater sensitivity than the baseline method. Lastly, we describe various key implementation details, including a quadratic-programming-based method for extracting the critical temperature estimate from trained autoencoders and calculations of the DNN initialization and learning rate settings required for fair model comparisons.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Why Dissolving Salt in Water Decreases Its Dielectric Permittivity

The dielectric permittivity of salt water decreases on dissolving more salt. For nearly a century, this phenomenon has been explained by invoking saturation in the dielectric response of the solvent water molecules. Herein, we employ an advanced deep neural network (DNN), built using data from density functional theory, to study the dielectric permittivity of sodium chloride solutions. Notably, the decrease in the dielectric permittivity as a function of concentration, computed using the DNN approach, agrees well with experiments. Detailed analysis of the computations reveals that the dominant effect, caused by the intrusion of ionic hydration shells into the solvent hydrogen-bond network, is the disruption of dipolar correlations among water molecules. Accordingly, the observed decrease in the dielectric permittivity is mostly due to increasing suppression of the collective response of solvent waters.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards Low-Overhead Resilience for Data Parallel Deep Learning

Data parallel techniques have been widely adopted both in academia and industry as a tool to enable scalable training of deep learning models. At scale, DL training jobs can fail due to software or hardware bugs, may need to be preempted or terminated due to unexpected events, or may perform suboptimally because they were misconfigured. Under such circumstances, there is a need to recover and/or reconfigure data-parallel DL training jobs on-the-fly, while minimizing the impact on the accuracy of the DNN model and the runtime overhead. In this regard, state-of-art techniques adopted by the HPC community mostly rely on checkpoint-restart, which inevitably leads to loss of progress, thus increasing the runtime overhead. In this paper we explore alternative techniques that exploit the properties of modern deep learning frameworks (overlapping of gradient averaging and weight updates with local gradient computations through pipeline parallelism) to reduce the overhead of resilience/elasticity. To this end we introduce a failure simulation framework and two resilience strategies (immediate mini-batch rollback and lossy forward recovery), which we study compared with checkpoint-restart approaches in a variety of settings in order to understand the trade-offs between the accuracy loss of the DNN model and the runtime overhead.

data-parallel training↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Affinely Adjustable Robust Volt/VAr Control

Recent years have seen the increasing proliferation of distributed energy resources with intermittent power outputs, posing new challenges to the voltage management in distribution networks. To this end, this paper proposes a data-driven affinely adjustable robust Volt/VAr control (AARVVC) scheme, which modulates the smart inverter’s reactive power in an affine function of its active power, based on the voltage sensitivities with respect to real/reactive power injections. To achieve a fast and accurate estimation of voltage sensitivities, we propose a data-driven method based on deep neural network (DNN), together with a rule-based bus-selection process using the bidirectional search method. Our method only uses the operating statuses of selected buses as inputs to DNN, thus significantly improving the training efficiency and reducing information redundancy. Finally, a distributed consensus-based solution, based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), for the AARVVC is applied to decide the inverter’s reactive power adjustment rule with respect to its active power. Only limited information exchange is required between each local agent and the central agent to obtain the slope of the reactive power adjustment rule, and there is no need for the central agent to solve any (sub)optimization problems. Finally, numerical results on the modified IEEE-123 bus system validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed data-driven AARVVC method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Train Like a (Var)Pro: Efficient Training of Neural Networks with Variable Projection

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance across a variety of traditional machine learning tasks, e.g., speech recognition, image classification, and segmentation. The ability of DNNs to efficiently approximate high-dimensional functions has also motivated their use in scientific applications, e.g., to solve partial differential equations and to generate surrogate models. In this paper, we consider the supervised training of DNNs, which arises in many of the above applications. We focus on the central problem of optimizing the weights of the given DNN such that it accurately approximates the relation between observed input and target data. Devising effective solvers for this optimization problem is notoriously challenging due to the large number of weights, nonconvexity, data sparsity, and nontrivial choice of hyperparameters. To solve the optimization problem more efficiently, we propose the use of variable projection (VarPro), a method originally designed for separable nonlinear least-squares problems. Our main contribution is the Gauss--Newton VarPro method (GNvpro) that extends the reach of the VarPro idea to nonquadratic objective functions, most notably cross-entropy loss functions arising in classification. These extensions make GNvpro applicable to all training problems that involve a DNN whose last layer is an affine mapping, which is common in many state-of-the-art architectures. In our four numerical experiments from surrogate modeling, segmentation, and classification, GNvpro solves the optimization problem more efficiently than commonly used stochastic gradient descent (SGD) schemes. Finally, GNvpro finds solutions that generalize well, and in all but one example better than well-tuned SGD methods, to unseen data points.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning-enhanced framework for multiphysics joint inversion

Joint inversion has drawn considerable attention due to the availability of multiple geophysical data sets, ever-increasing computational resources, the development of advanced algorithms, and its ability to reduce inversion uncertainty. A key issue of joint inversion is to develop effective strategies to link different geophysical data in a unified mathematical framework, in which the information obtained from different models can complement each other. We have developed a deep learning-enhanced joint inversion framework to simultaneously reconstruct different physical models by fusing different types of geophysical data. Traditionally, structure similarity constraints are pursued by joint inversion algorithms using manually crafted formulations (e.g., cross gradient). The constraint is constructed by a deep neural network (DNN) during the learning process. The framework is designed to combine the DNN and a traditional independent inversion workflow and improve the joint inversion result iteratively. The network can be easily extended to incorporate multiphysics without structural changes. Numerical experiments on the joint inversion of 2D DC resistivity data and seismic traveltime are used to validate our method. In addition, this learning-based framework demonstrates excellent generalization abilities when tested on data sets using different geologic structures. It also can handle different sensing configurations and nonconforming discretization.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Three-dimensional cooperative inversion of airborne magnetic and gravity gradient data using deep-learning techniques

Using multiple geophysical methods has become a prevailing approach in numerous geophysical applications to investigate subsurface structures and parameters. These multimethod-based exploration strategies have the potential to greatly diminish uncertainties and ambiguities encountered during geophysical data analysis and interpretation. One of the applications is the cooperative inversion of airborne magnetic and gravity gradient data for the interpretation of data obtained in mineral, oil and gas, and geothermal explorations. In this paper, a unified cooperative inversion framework is designed by combining the standard separate inversions with a deep neural network (DNN), which serves as the link between different types of data. A well-trained DNN takes the separately inverted susceptibility and density models as the inputs and provides improved models that will be used as the initial models of deterministic inversions. A two-round iteration strategy is adopted to guarantee the reasonability of the recovered models and overall efficiency of the inversion. In addition, this deep-learning (DL)-based framework demonstrates excellent generalization abilities when tested on models that are entirely distinct from the training data sets. The framework can easily incorporate multiphysics without necessitating any structural changes to the network. Synthetic experiments validate that our DL-based method outperforms conventional separate inversions and cross-gradient-based joint inversion in view of the accuracy of the recovered models and inversion efficiency. Successful application to field data further verifies the effectiveness of our DL-based method.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimization of the deep neural network parameters for generating homogenized fuel assembly data for nodal codes

Homogenized fuel assembly (FA) data is a typical input data for nodal codes. Generating that data, however, could be time-consuming. One of promising ways to mitigate the computational burden of generating macroscopic cross-sections is to use trained artificial neural network (ANN) models for predicting nuclear data. However, there is a challenge to make the model support variable FA geometry. In this work, two most common types of FA were combined in one ANN model. Since there could be multiple ways of converting 2-dimensional FA data into 1-dimensional input vector for ANN, three different approaches of data flattening were evaluated. The input parameters included each fuel pin enrichment, fuel temperature, moderator temperature and boron concentration. The output parameters were 2-group macroscopic cross-sections (XS) and pin power distribution (HFF). A fully connected deep neural network (DNN) model was trained and tested using pre-generated data obtained with lattice physics code STREAM. The results of this study showed no statistically significant difference in the accuracy of XS and HFF generation for all 3 tested input vector orders. This means that fully connected DNN for XS generation demonstrated input sequence invariance. Results of comparing predicted XS data with reference solutions were found sufficiently close considering the reduction of computation time offered by ANN. Mean relative difference (MRD) for all output XS parameters was found below 0.7%, while HFF MRD was found higher compared to XS values, in some cases slightly exceeding 1%, mostly near guide tube locations. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗