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At least 73 records · Page 4

Gravity field improvement using global positioning system data from TOPEX/Poseidon - A covariance analysis

The TOPEX/Poseidon satellite data can be used to improve the knowledge of the earth's gravitational field. The GPS data are especially useful for improving the gravity field over the world's oceans, where the current tracking data are sparse. Using realistic scenario for processing 10 days of GPS data, a covariance analysis is performed to obtain the expected improvement to the GEM-T2 gravity field. The large amount of GPS data and the large number of parameters (1979 parameters for the gravity field, plus carrier-phase biases, etc.) required special filtering techniques for efficient solution. The gravity-bin technique is used to compute the covariance matrix associated with the spherical harmonic gravity field. The covariance analysis shows that the GPS data from one 10-day arc of TOPEX/Poseidon with no a priori constraints can resolve medium degree and order (3-26) parameters with sigmas (standard deviations) that are an order of magnitude smaller than the corresponding sigmas of GEM-T2. When the information from GEM-T2 is combined with the TOPEX/Poseidon GPS measurements, an order-of-magnitude improvement is observed in low- and medium-degree terms with significant improvements spread over a wide range of degree and order.

Bertiger, Willy I.↗

A hidden Markov model for population-level cervical cancer screening data

The Cancer Registry of Norway has been administrating a national cervical cancer screening program since 1992 by coordinating triennial cytology exam screenings for the female population between 25 and 69 years of age. Up to 80% of cancers are prevented through mass screening, but this comes at the expense of considerable screening activity and leads to overtreatment of clinically asymptomatic precancers. Here, we present a continuous-time, time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model which was developed to understand the screening process and cervical cancer carcinogenesis in detail. By leveraging 1.7 million individual's multivariate time-series of medical exams performed over a 25-year period, we simultaneously estimate all model parameters. We show that an age-dependent model reflects the Norwegian screening program by comparing empirical survival curves from observed registry data and data simulated from the proposed model. The model can be generalized to include more detailed individual-level covariates as well as new types of screening exams. By utilizing individual screening histories and covariate data, the proposed model shows potential for improving strategies for cancer screening programs by personalizing recommended screening intervals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Performing k eff Validation of As-Loaded Criticality Safety Calculations Using UNF-ST&DARDS: Applicable Experiment Selection

The general method for performing validation of as loaded criticality safety calculations using UNF ST&DARDS is presented in a paper by Clarity, which includes a description of the UNF-ST&DARDS system. Proof-of-principle analyses were performed in the summer of 2019 for MPC-32 dual purpose canisters (DPCs) containing pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assemblies. Summaries of these results are presented in this and a companion paper for this conference. The current paper describes the TSUNAMI-IP calculations performed to select applicable experiments for validation of 11 MPC-32 DPCs. The companion paper discusses the TSUNAMI-3D calculations used to generate sensitivity data to support the experiment selections discussed here. Experiment selection is based on the sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods used to validate criticality safety calculations of as-loaded DPCs containing pressurized water reactor (PWR) spent nuclear fuel (SNF). This process has been demonstrated and is summarized in this paper. The approach is similar to that used in NUREG/CR-7109, which provides an approach for validation of PWR burnup credit (BUC), including major and minor actinides and major fission products. The premise of S/U-based validation is that applicable experiments—those having a similar bias to a given application system—will have similar sensitivities for each isotope and reaction in the two systems. It is assumed that cross sections with larger uncertainties are more likely to contain data errors which contribute to the bias. The integral index c k thus propagates the system sensitivities with the nuclear covariance data to calculate a correlation coefficient representing the similarity of the two systems. In this work, a c k value of 0.8 or higher is interpreted as identifying an experiment with sufficient similarity for use in validation. This paper presents a brief summary of the characteristics of the 11 MPC-32 DPCs used in the proof of-principle analysis for as-loaded criticality safety calculation validation and an overview of the critical experiment suite with which each of these DPC models was compared. A summary and discussion of c k results is also presented, followed by conclusions and a discussion of future work to be performed for validation of UNF ST&DARDS as-loaded criticality safety calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

AMPX and SCALE Nuclear Data Libraries for Depletion [Slides]

This presentation touches on AMPX and SCALE nuclear data libraries for depletion. AMPX is a nuclear data processing code suite that generates continuous-energy and multigroup neutron and gamma libraries used in SCALE and VERA, covariance data used in S/U calculations, and depletion, activation and decay origin data for Oak Ridge Isotope Generation code (ORIGEN).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Improvements of Nuclear Data Evaluations for Lead Isotopes in Support of Next Generation Lead-Cooled Fast Systems

The neutron evaluation of the isotopes that comprise natural lead were undertaken as a part of DOE-NEUP Project #19-16739. The goal of the project was to update the neutron cross sections to account for new differential measurements and incorporate the most up-to-date physics. Shortcomings in the lead cross sections was made known by several independent reports. The work performed here repeated the simulation of all the “benchmark” validation systems and concluded that the major issue is the scattering cross sections in the major lead isotopes above 100 keV. Re-evaluation of 206,207,208 Pb included both the resolved resonance region and fast region evaluations of the cross sections. Combined these regions cover energies from thermal to 20 MeV. The most drastic improvement is the resolved resonance region evaluation of 208 Pb which is now extended from 1.0 to 1.5 MeV. Parameterization of these resonances in the R-matrix provides a superior reconstruction of not only the experimental cross section but also the scattering distributions via the Blatt-Biedenharn formalism. Fast region evaluations of the three major isotopes were done to include new inelastic experimental data from the neutron Time-of-Flight facility at CERN. The culmination of all the changes to the cross section is a drastic improvement in the scattering kernel as shown in Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) Quasi-Differential scattering measurements and improved prediction of keff for fast integral experiments. Alongside the new cross sections, new nuclear data covariance (uncertainties) have been computed and are included in the evaluation. Little is changed in the magnitude of the uncertainties but the correlations within the covariance display non-trivial changes. The new evaluations of 206,207,208 Pb have been submitted to the National Nuclear Data Center to be included in the ENDF/B-VIII.1 library. While the cross sections have been updated extensively, knowledge and modeling of the cross sections between 1.0 and 3.0 MeV for the isotopes remain a challenge. Most notably is the double differential elastic cross section for 208 Pb and 206 Pb. New quasi-differential measurements for pure samples of these two nuclei would go a long way in reducing compensating errors in the evaluations. Qualitatively, the project has produced a prosperous collaboration between the nuclear data group at RPI with staff scientists at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Naval Nuclear Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Quantitatively this is reflected in seven conference presentations, at least one journal submission, and one doctoral thesis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Contributions for ENDF/B-VIII.1 Paper

It was discussed at WANDA2020 that some issues were found by the community and users in ENDF/B-VIII.0 covariances after their release. It was mentioned that one issue in testing ENDF/B-VIII.0 covariances was that they were provided by evaluators too late in the β-release phases that insufficient time for thorough testing was available. Therefore, the executive committee requested that first nuclear data covariances should already be delivered for ENDF/B-VIII.1β 1 in February 2023—about half a year earlier than was the case for ENDF/B-VIII.0. This additional time allowed for more stringent testing with LANL’s ENDFtk and CovVal codes, and ORNL’s AMPX code during the release phases. The LLNL covariance testing employed a combination of NJOY, empy tools from EMPIRE, and x4i.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Analytic marginalization of N(z) uncertainties in tomographic galaxy surveys

In this paper, we present a new method to marginalize over uncertainties in redshift distributions, N(z), within tomographic cosmological analyses applicable to current and upcoming photometric galaxy surveys. We allow for arbitrary deviations from the best-guess N(z) governed by a general covariance matrix describing the uncertainty in our knowledge of redshift distributions. In principle, this is marginalization over hundreds or thousands of new parameters describing potential deviations as a function of redshift and tomographic bin. However, by linearly expanding the theory predictions around a fiducial model, this marginalization can be performed analytically, resulting in a modified data covariance matrix that effectively downweights the modes of the data vector that are more sensitive to redshift distribution variations. We showcase this method by applying it to the galaxy clustering measurements from the Hyper Suprime-Cam first data release. We illustrate how to marginalize over sample variance of the calibration sample and a large general systematic uncertainty in photometric estimation methods, and explore the impact of priors imposing smoothness in the redshift distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Understanding Peelle’s Pertinent Puzzle bias in generalized least squares regression through eigenspectrum analysis

Certain correlation structures in the data covariance matrix (DCM) used for generalized least squares (GLS) regression can result in biased estimates, commonly known in the field of nuclear data evaluation as Peele’s Pertinent Puzzle (PPP). This article introduces a generative, forward modeling framework within which the PPP bias is characterized through an eigenspectrum analysis of the DCM. This analysis highlights the root cause of the bias, generalizes the problem beyond the nuclear data field, and provides insight to the problem regimes where it can occur. What follows is an understanding that the bias can show up for any experimental neutron time-of-flight data for which systematic uncertainties have been quantified. Lastly, a discussion of the adaptation of cross validation approaches that require pre-whitening to incorporate the known ‘fix’ to the PPP bias in the GLS estimator.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Geostationary Satellite Observations Over Global Environmental Monitoring Sites

Globally, there are now hundreds of ground-based environmental monitoring stations routinely collecting data on a variety of earth-atmosphere interactions. Such observations are also being augmented with data from orbiting satellites. With the beginning of the EOS-era, the MODIS subset around flux towers has been frequently used for validating ecosystem models developed at flux towers and upscaling the observed flux data to regional scales. However, MODIS on the polar-orbiting satellites can observe target regions only once a day, while the Fluxnet eddy- covariance data are compiled as sub-hourly. Therefore, summarizing the sub-hourly flux data into daily statistics is necessary for the comparison between MODIS and Flux data. The new generation geostationary satellite sensors (GOES-16/17 ABI and Himawari-8/9 AHI) have capabilities similar to MODIS but collect data at 5-15 minute intervals. These high-frequency observations allow us to understand and scale diurnal fluxes. Some studies have already shown the effective utilization of time series of geostationary satellite data for ecosystem modeling. We are producing NEX Level-1G products, which are gridded Top-of-Atmosphere reflectance and brightness temperature data from geostationary satellite sensors. We cut out the NEX Level-1G data using the same file format with the MODIS subset except for the projection. The other data products (e.g., surface reflectance, land surface temperature, vegetation indices, and climate data) will be added upon their availability. Currently included networks are Fluxnet, PhenoCam, and AERONET. The NEX subset data will be provided through NASA NEX data portal.

Geostationary Satellites↗

GeoNEX-SUBSETS: Cutouts of geostationary satellite data over long-term monitoring sites

Satellite remote sensing data are important tool for extrapolating the knowledge obtained at the Fluxnet towers. We introduce our GEO-NEX geostationary satellite subset products, which make it easy to compare between ground observation and Geo-NEX products. The MODIS subset has been frequently used for validating ecosystem models developed at flux towers and upscaling the observed flux data to regional scales. However, MODIS on the polar orbiting satellites can observe target regions only once a day, while the Fluxnet eddy-covariance data are compiled as sub-hourly datasets. As a results, summarizing the sub-hourly flux data into daily statistics is necessary for the comparison between MODIS and Flux data. Here, the new generation geostationary satellite sensors (GOES-16/17 ABI and Himawari-8/9 AHI) has the high-frequent observation feature (10 minutes) in addition to similar spectral band and spatial resolution with MODIS. The high frequent observation allows us to compare the flux diurnal cycle with geostationary satellite sensor data. Some studies have already shown the effective utilization of time series of geostationary satellite data for ecosystem modeling. We are producing NEX Level-1G products, which is the gridded Top-of-Atmosphere reflectance and brightness temperature data of geostationary satellite sensors. We cut out the NEX Level-1G data using the same file format with the MODIS subset except for the projection. The other data products (e.g., surface reflectance, land surface temperature, vegetation indices and climate data) will be also added upon their availability. We selected the ground observation sites from Fluxnet, Phenocam, and AERONET networks. The NEX subset data will be provided through NASA NEX data portal.

GeoNEX↗

AmeriFlux CA-GL3 Long Point

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL3 Long Point. Site Description - Long Point Lighthouse is located at the end of Long Point on Lake Erie. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, completed in 1916, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2012 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗

On the role of dimensionality and sample size for unstructured and structured covariance matrix estimation

The experimental observation that a surprisingly small sample size vis-a-vis dimension is needed to achieve good signal-to-interference ratio (SIR) performance with an adaptive predetection filter is explained. The adaptive filter requires estimates as obtained by a recursive stochastic algorithm of the inverse of the filter input data covariance matrix. The SIR performance with sample size is compared for the situations where the covariance matrix estimates are of unstructured (generalized) form and of structured (finite Toeplitz) form; the latter case is consistent with weak stationarity of the input data stochastic process.

Morgera, S. D.↗

Position determination of a lander and rover at Mars with Earth-based differential tracking

The presence of two or more landed or orbiting spacecraft at a planet provides the opportunity to perform extremely accurate Earth-based navigation by simultaneously acquiring Doppler data and either Same-Beam Interferometry (SBI) or ranging data. Covariance analyses were performed to investigate the accuracy with which lander and rover positions on the surface of Mars can be determined. Simultaneous acquisition of Doppler and ranging data from a lander and rover over two or more days enables determination of all components of their relative position to under 20 m. Acquiring one hour of Doppler and SBI enables three dimensional lander-rover relative position determination to better than 5 m. Twelve hours of Doppler and either SBI or ranging from a lander and a low circular or half synchronous circular Mars orbiter makes possible lander absolute position determination to tens of meters.

Kahn, R. D.↗

Position determination of spacecraft at Mars using earth-based differential tracking

The presence of two or more landed or orbiting spacecraft at a planet provides the opportunity to perform extremely accurate earth-based navigation by simultaneously acquiring Doppler data and either Same-Beam Interferometry (SBI) or ranging data. Covariance analyses were performed to investigate the accuracy with which lander and rover positions on the surface of Mars can be determined. Simultaneous acquisition of Doppler and ranging data from a lander and rover over two or more days enables determination of all components of their relative position to under 20 m. Acquiring one hour of Doppler and SBI enables three-dimensional lander-rover relative position determination to better than 5 m. Twelve hours of Doppler and either SBI or ranging from a lander and a low circular or half synchronous circular Mars orbiter makes possible lander absolute position determination to tens of meters.

Kahn, Robert D.↗

AmeriFlux CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse. Site Description - Nine Mile Lighthouse is located at the south end of Simcoe Island on Lake Ontario. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, built in 1833, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2016 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗

Adapting Covariance Propagation to Account for the Presence of Modeled and Unmodeled Maneuvers

This paper explores techniques that can be used to adapt the standard linearized propagation of an orbital covariance matrix to the case where there is a maneuver and an associated execution uncertainty. A Monte Carlo technique is used to construct a final orbital covariance matrix for a 'prop-burn-prop' process that takes into account initial state uncertainty and execution uncertainties in the maneuver magnitude. This final orbital covariance matrix is regarded as 'truth' and comparisons are made with three methods using modified linearized covariance propagation. The first method accounts for the maneuver by modeling its nominal effect within the state transition matrix but excludes the execution uncertainty by omitting a process noise matrix from the computation. The second method does not model the maneuver but includes a process noise matrix to account for the uncertainty in its magnitude. The third method, which is essentially a hybrid of the first two, includes the nominal portion of the maneuver via the state transition matrix and uses a process noise matrix to account for the magnitude uncertainty. The first method is unable to produce the final orbit covariance except in the case of zero maneuver uncertainty. The second method yields good accuracy for the final covariance matrix but fails to model the final orbital state accurately. Agreement between the simulated covariance data produced by this method and the Monte Carlo truth data fell within 0.5-2.5 percent over a range of maneuver sizes that span two orders of magnitude (0.1-20 m/s). The third method, which yields a combination of good accuracy in the computation of the final covariance matrix and correct accounting for the presence of the maneuver in the nominal orbit, is the best method for applications involving the computation of times of closest approach and the corresponding probability of collision, PC. However, applications for the two other methods exist and are briefly discussed. Although the process model ("prop-burn-prop") that was studied is very simple - point-mass gravitational effects due to the Earth combined with an impulsive delta-V in the velocity direction for the maneuver - generalizations to more complex scenarios, including high fidelity force models, finite duration maneuvers, and maneuver pointing errors, are straightforward and are discussed in the conclusion.

Schiff, Conrad↗

Knowledge acquisition for expert systems using statistical methods

A common problem in the design of expert systems is the definition of rules from data obtained in system operation or simulation. A statistical method for generating rule bases from numerical data, motivated by an example based on aircraft navigation with multiple sensors is presented. The specific objective is to design an expert system that selects a satisfactory suite of measurements from a dissimilar, redundant set, given an arbitrary navigation geometry and possible sensor failures. The systematic development of a Navigation Sensor Management (NSM) Expert System from Kalman Filter covariance data is described. The development method invokes two statistical techniques: Analysis-of-Variance (ANOVA) and the ID3 algorithm. The ANOVA technique indicates whether variations of problem parameters give statistically different covariance results, and the ID3 algorithm identifies the relationships between the problem parameters using probabilistic knowledge extracted from a simulation example set.

Belkin, Brenda L.↗

Covariance Realism Is Not Enough

A great deal of effort has been put into improving the practice of space situational awareness such that covariance data associated with predicted close approaches is more “realistic.” However, “realistic” usually has meant “larger” and this presents a problem. In many cases, there exist multiple sources for predictive ephemerides, which may be fused to produce predictive states with smaller associated covariances. Ancillary to the fusion computation is the capability to assess consistency of the estimates. If actionable covariance information becomes available, interval estimates for the miss distance provide a more informative alternative to collision probability for risk assessment.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗