Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Covariance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of nuclear data covariance libraries on uncertainty quantification of sodium cooled fast reactor simulation

Uncertainty quantification in core modelling to assess reactor performance is a regular practice to identify design safety limits. Best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) methods are commonly used to propagate uncertainties to core responses from input parameters, characterized by variance-covariance libraries. This study evaluates the impact of different covariance libraries on the uncertainty associated with core safety parameters and their propagation through reactor transient modelling for a metallic core (ABR-1000). The COMAC-1.0, COMMARA-2.0, and COMMARA-2.1 covariance libraries are used to propagate nuclear data uncertainties to neutron feedback coefficients using the Generalized Perturbation Theory, then through transient safety analyses to establish the confidence interval for safety performance of the reactor using stochastic sampling. The considered transients include Unprotected Transient Over Power and Unprotected Loss Of Flow. Most influential nuclide and reaction pairs in different variance-covariance libraries are identified and their impact on the uncertainty of safety parameters are evaluated. Significant differences were observed between uncertainties from COMAC compared to COMMARA libraries. Uncertainties from COMMARA libraries were consistently larger than COMAC for all cases. For structure, coolant density feedback coefficients and control rod worth, total nuclear data uncertainties were approximately 50% larger for COMMARA than COMAC. Differences were also observed in identification of top contributors of uncertainty in terms of reaction-cross sections. For instance, largest contribution to total uncertainty of radial expansion coefficient from COMMARA-2.0 and 2.1 originates from Na{sup 23} P1 Elastic cross section (0.81%) but from Pu{sup 239} Fission (0.53%) with COM C-1.0. Such differences are evaluated in this research for all quantities of interest. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Error Covariance↗
NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Generalized Augmented-State Covariance Analysis for Spaceflight

The use of linear covariance analysis techniques, also known as LinCov, has been used extensively for more than a half century for spaceflight applications. Originally, its primary purpose was to facilitate navigation analysis. For many past and current applications, the specific implementations only support navigation studies still. When the concept of an augmented-state linear covariance analysis approach was initially introduced that allowed for both navigation and trajectory dispersion analysis, the enhancement was motivated and primarily utilized to support navigation filter tuning and error budget analysis. Relatively few utilize this alternate augmented-state formulation of LinCov due to its additional complexity. The untapped potential of the augmented-state linear covariance analysis technique slowly unfolded in the past two-decades as its capability to rapidly and reliably capture the integrated closed-loop guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system performance became more apparent. Even with this dual purpose of generating insights to both navigation errors along with trajectory and delta-v dispersions, the core theoretical development had a heavy emphasis on the impacts of the navigation system and largely neglected the details of the actual guidance, targeting, and control systems. This paper extends the navigation-centric theoretical development by formulating a generalized augmented-state covariance analysis (GAUSCOV) technique that allows for the intricacies of a variety of targeting and control strategies along with ground planning and mission operations to be more formally included in assessing the impacts to spaceflight GN&C system performance.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hilbert series for covariants and their applications to minimal flavor violation

We elaborate how to apply the Hilbert series method to enumerating group covariants, which transform under any given representation, including but going beyond group invariants. Mathematically, group covariants form a module over the ring of the invariants. The number of independent covariants is given by the rank of the module, which can be computed by taking a ratio of two Hilbert series. In many cases, the rank equals the dimension of the group covariant representation. When this happens, we say that there is a rank saturation. We apply this technology to revisit the hypothesis of Minimal Flavor Violation in constructing Effective Field Theories beyond the Standard Model. We find that rank saturation is guaranteed in this case, leading to the important consequence that the MFV symmetry principle does not impose any restriction on the EFT, i.e. MFV SMEFT = SMEFT, in the absence of additional assumptions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Covariant color-kinematics duality

We show that color-kinematics duality is a manifest property of the equations of motion governing currents and field strengths. For the nonlinear sigma model (NLSM), this insight enables an implementation of the double copy at the level of fields, as well as an explicit construction of the kinematic algebra and associated kinematic current. As a byproduct, we also derive new formulations of the special Galileon (SG) and Born-Infeld (BI) theory. For Yang-Mills (YM) theory, this same approach reveals a novel structure — covariant color-kinematics duality — whose only difference from the conventional duality is that 1/$\square$ is replaced with covariant 1/D 2 . Remarkably, this structure implies that YM theory is itself the covariant double copy of gauged biadjoint scalar (GBAS) theory and an F 3 theory of field strengths encoding a corresponding kinematic algebra and current. Directly applying the double copy to equations of motion, we derive general relativity (GR) from the product of Einstein-YM and F 3 theory. This exercise reveals a trivial variant of the classical double copy that recasts any solution of GR as a solution of YM theory in a curved background. Covariant color-kinematics duality also implies a new decomposition of tree-level amplitudes in YM theory into those of GBAS theory. Using this representation we derive a closed-form, analytic expression for all BCJ numerators in YM theory and the NLSM for any number of particles in any spacetime dimension. By virtue of the double copy, this constitutes an explicit formula for all tree-level scattering amplitudes in YM, GR, NLSM, SG, and BI.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastically estimated covariance matrices for independent and cumulative fission yields in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3 evaluations

A Monte-Carlo method for the generation of correlation and covariance matrices for independent and cumulative fission yields has been developed. The method uses a constrained Monte-Carlo resampling structure in order to vary evaluated fission yield libraries in a way that meets basic conservation principles. This results in the generation of correlation/covariance matrices with limited model bias and uncertainty; the matrices are primarily reflective of the evaluated fission yield uncertainties and correlations that arise from the evaluation process. This method has been applied to generate correlation and covariance matrices for all of the fissioning systems of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3 evaluations, marking the first time such matrices have been generated for all of these systems. These covariance matrices have been published online for immediate public use. These correlation and covariance matrices can be used to improve uncertainty estimation in calculations of reactor antineutrino emission rates, decay heat problems, and nuclear forensics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electron–Ion Covariance Reveals Geometry-Resolved Inner-Shell Spectra in CS 2 Photodissociation

The chemical shifts of inner-shell atomic orbitals are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and molecular structure. In evolving systems, however, the spectra of distinct molecular species and geometries overlap, obscuring the underlying chemical dynamics. Here we demonstrate the use of electron–ion covariance analysis to combine the structural sensitivity of Coulomb explosion imaging with inner-shell spectroscopy, yielding geometry-specific spectra of transient and product species. We apply this approach to the excited state dynamics of CS 2 probed by ionization above the S 2p edge. Electron–ion covariance with time- and momentum-selected S + and S 2+ ions isolates distinct S 2p photoelectron spectra for ground-state CS 2 , bent photoexcited CS 2 , the CS photoproduct, and bare atomic sulfur ─ species whose spectra overlap strongly in the channel-averaged measurement. Clear chemical shifts are observed in the covariance photoelectron spectrum for each of these species, all of which are consistent with high-level calculations. Here, by extracting the atomic S contribution to the photoelectron spectrum in a finely time-resolved manner we can disentangle this contribution to the overall time-resolved photoelectron spectrum as the photodissociation proceeds. These results demonstrate the promise of electron–ion covariance as a general approach to geometry-resolved inner-shell spectroscopy, opening a route to tracking structural evolution through chemical shifts in complex photoexcited molecules.

Ionization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analytical and EZmock covariance validation for the DESI 2024 results

The estimation of uncertainties in cosmological parameters is an important challenge in Large-Scale-Structure (LSS) analyses. For standard analyses such as Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Full-Shape two approaches are usually considered. First: analytical estimates of the covariance matrix use Gaussian approximations and (nonlinear) clustering measurements to estimate the matrix, which allows a relatively fast and computationally cheap way to generate matrices that adapt to an arbitrary clustering measurement. On the other hand, sample covariances are an empirical estimate of the matrix based on an ensemble of clustering measurements from fast and approximate simulations. While more computationally expensive due to the large amount of simulations and volume required, these allow us to take into account systematics that are impossible to model analytically. In this work we compare these two approaches in order to enable DESI's key analyses. We find that the configuration space analytical estimate performs satisfactorily in BAO analyses and its flexibility in terms of input clustering makes it the fiducial choice for DESI's 2024 BAO analysis. On the contrary, the analytical computation of the covariance matrix in Fourier space does not reproduce the expected measurements in terms of Full-Shape analyses, which motivates the use of a corrected mock covariance for DESI's 2024 Full Shape analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating baryonic effects with a theoretical error covariance

ABSTRACT One of the primary sources of uncertainties in modelling the cosmic-shear power spectrum on small scales is the effect of baryonic physics. Accurate cosmology for stage-IV surveys requires knowledge of the matter power spectrum deep in the non-linear regime at the per cent level. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable mitigation techniques to take into account baryonic uncertainties if information from small scales is to be considered in the cosmological analysis. In this work, we develop a new mitigation method for dealing with baryonic physics for the case of the shear angular power spectrum. The method is based on an augmented covariance matrix that incorporates baryonic uncertainties informed by hydrodynamical simulations. We use the results from 13 hydrodynamical simulations and the residual errors arising from a fit to a ΛCDM model using the extended halo model code HMCode to account for baryonic physics. These residual errors are used to model a so-called theoretical error covariance matrix that is added to the original covariance matrix. In order to assess the performance of the method, we use the 2D tomographic shear from four hydrodynamical simulations that have different extremes of baryonic parameters as mock data and run a likelihood analysis comparing the residual bias on Ωm and σ8 of our method and the HMCode for an LSST-like survey. We use different modelling of the theoretical error covariance matrix to test the robustness of the method. We show that it is possible to reduce the bias in the determination of the tested cosmological parameters at the price of a modest decrease in the precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bias on tensor-to-scalar ratio inference with estimated covariance matrices

ABSTRACT We investigate simulation-based bandpower covariance matrices commonly used in cosmological parameter inferences such as the estimation of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. We find that upper limits on r can be biased low by tens of per cent. The underestimation of the upper limit is most severe when the number of simulation realizations is similar to the number of observables. Convergence of the covariance-matrix estimation can require a number of simulations an order of magnitude larger than the number of observables, which could mean $\mathcal {O}(10\ 000)$ simulations. This is found to be caused by an additional scatter in the posterior probability of r due to Monte Carlo noise in the estimated bandpower covariance matrix, in particular, by spurious non-zero off-diagonal elements. We show that matrix conditioning can be a viable mitigation strategy in the case that legitimate covariance assumptions can be made.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating quenching in cosmological simulations of galaxy formation with spectral covariance in the optical window

ABSTRACT Cosmological hydrodynamical simulations provide valuable insights on galaxy evolution when coupled with observational data. Comparisons with real galaxies are typically performed via scaling relations of the observables. Here, we follow an alternative approach based on the spectral covariance in a model-independent way. We build upon previous work by Sharbaf et al. that studied the covariance of high-quality SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey) continuum-subtracted spectra in a relatively narrow range of velocity dispersion ($\sigma \in [100,150]$ km s$^{-1}$). Here, the same analysis is applied to synthetic data from the eagle and IllustrisTNG100 simulations, to assess the ability of these runs to mimic real galaxies. The real and simulated spectra are consistent regarding spectral covariance, although with subtle differences that can inform the implementation of subgrid physics. Spectral fitting done a posteriori on stacks segregated with respect to latent space reveals that the first principal component (PC1) is predominantly influenced by the stellar age distribution, with an underlying age–metallicity degeneracy. Good agreement is found regarding star formation prescriptions but there is disagreement with active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback, that also affects the subset of quiescent galaxies. We show a substantial difference in the implementation of the AGN subgrid prescriptions, regarding central black hole seeding, that could lead to the mismatch. Differences are manifest between these two simulations in the star formation histories stacked with respect to latent space. We emphasize that this methodology only relies on the spectral covariance to assess whether simulations provide a true representation of galaxy formation.

Sharbaf, Z. (ORCID:0009000450545946)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytic Gaussian covariance matrices for galaxy N-point correlation functions

Here, we derive analytic covariance matrices for the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of galaxies in the Gaussian limit. Our results are given for arbitrary N and projected onto the isotropic basis functions given by spherical harmonics and Wigner 3j symbols. A numerical implementation of the 4PCF covariance is compared to the sample covariance obtained from a set of lognormal simulations, Quijote dark matter halo catalogues, and MultiDark-Patchy galaxy mocks, with the latter including realistic survey geometry. The analytic formalism gives reasonable predictions for the covariances estimated from mock simulations with a periodic-box geometry. Furthermore, fitting for an effective volume and number density by maximizing a likelihood based on Kullback-Leibler divergence is shown to partially compensate for the effects of a nonuniform window function. Our result is recently shown to facilitate NPCF analysis on a realistic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Whisper Use of Nuclear Data Covariances [Slides]

Whisper is statistical analysis code using sensitivity/uncertainty-based methods to determine baseline upper subcritical limit (USL) for nuclear criticality safety. Features of Whisper 1.1 include: GLLS method implemented to compute adjusted covariance based on current benchmark suite (1,100+ ICSBEP models), BLO “low-fidelity” covariance data used (44 energy groups), adjusted covariance is pre-computed and saved, and adjusted cross sections are NOT computed. Potential future efforts include: an extension to include angular distributions in benchmark selection and in GLLS adjustment, a move toward more modern covariance data (ENDF/B-VIII.0) and different group structure, and compute and store adjusted cross sections (trivial).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Quantum Time to Manifestly Covariant QFT: On the Need for a Quantum-Action-Based Quantization

In quantum time (QT) schemes, time is promoted to a degree of freedom, allowing Lorentz covariance to be made explicit for single particles. We ask whether this can be lifted to QFT so that Lorentz covariance becomes manifest at the Hilbert-space level, rather than being hidden as in the standard canonical formulation. We address this question by proposing a second-quantized approach in which the elementary particle is the QT particle itself, leading naturally to the notion of spacetime field algebras and of quantum action. We show, however, that a naive many-body construction runs into inconsistencies. To pinpoint their origin we introduce a classical counterpart of the second-quantized formalism, spacetime classical mechanics (SCM), and prove a no-go theorem: Dirac quantization of SCM collapses back to standard QFT and therefore hides covariance. We circumvent this problem by presenting a quantum-action-based quantization that yields a spacetime version of quantum mechanics (SQM), making covariance manifest for (interacting) QFTs. Finally, we show that this resolution is tied to a genuine spacetime generalization of the notion of a quantum state, required by causality and closely connected to recent “states over time” proposals and, in dS/CFT–motivated settings, to microscopic notions of timelike entanglement and emergent time.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wake-Resolving Acoustic Tomography: Advances through Numerical Covariance Methods

Acoustic tomography offers path-integrated measurements of atmospheric velocity and temperature fluctuations with high spatial resolution. Classical implementations of time-dependent stochastic inversion rely on homogeneous, isotropic covariance models that are poorly suited to the anisotropic structure of wind turbine wakes. By directly estimating heterogeneous covariances from large-eddy simulations (LESs) into the time-dependent stochastic inversion operator, we relax implicit assumptions in the analytical models used historically. Retrievals using these LES-informed models improve agreement with true fields in variance, turbulent kinetic energy, and spectral content compared to analytical and precursor-based covariance models. The results indicate that LES-informed covariance models can enhance the accuracy of acoustic tomography retrievals in complex, anisotropic flows such as wind turbine wakes in some cases and highlight instances where analytical models still offer competitive performance, despite their simplifying assumptions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1976

Triangular covariance factorizations for

An improved computational form of the discrete Kalman filter is derived using an upper triangular factorization of the error covariance matrix. The covariance P is factored such that P = UDUT where U is unit upper triangular and D is diagonal. Recursions are developed for propagating the U-D covariance factors together with the corresponding state estimate. The resulting algorithm, referred to as the U-D filter, combines the superior numerical precision of square root filtering techniques with an efficiency comparable to that of Kalman's original formula. Moreover, this method is easily implemented and involves no more computer storage than the Kalman algorithm. These characteristics make the U-D method an attractive realtime filtering technique. A new covariance error analysis technique is obtained from an extension of the U-D filter equations. This evaluation method is flexible and efficient and may provide significantly improved numerical results. Cost comparisons show that for a large class of problems the U-D evaluation algorithm is noticeably less expensive than conventional error analysis methods.

Thornton, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Filtering and error analysis via the UDU super T covariance factorization

Kalman filter algorithms based on the UDU super T covariance factorization are discussed, with special attention given to algorithm implementation efficiency. A U-D-factored covariance error-analysis algorithm is formulated, and its efficiency and numerical stability are demonstrated in a representative orbit determination problem. The numerical results are compared with those obtained using covariance error-analysis formulas, and the comparison highlights the numerical superiority of the present algorithm. A byproduct of the U-D analysis is a highly efficient algorithm mechanization of the arbitrary gain covariance update formula.

Thornton, C. L.↗