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At least 73 records · Page 4

Monitoring and Forecasting Space Weather in Geospace Environment

For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters approximately equal to 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Lyatsky, Wladislaw↗

Ensemble‐Based, Large‐Eddy Reconstruction of Wind Turbine Inflow in a Near‐Stationary Atmospheric Boundary Layer Through Generative Artificial Intelligence

ABSTRACT To validate the second‐by‐second dynamics of turbines in field experiments, it is necessary to accurately reconstruct the winds going into the turbine. Current time‐resolved inflow reconstruction techniques estimate wind behavior in unobserved regions using relatively simple spectral‐based models of the atmosphere. Here, we develop a technique for time‐resolved inflow reconstruction that is rooted in a large‐eddy simulation model of the atmosphere. Our “large‐eddy reconstruction” technique blends observations and atmospheric model information through a diffusion model machine learning algorithm, allowing us to generate probabilistic ensembles of reconstructions for a single 10‐min observational period. Our generated inflows can be used directly by aeroelastic codes or as inflow boundary conditions in a large‐eddy simulation. We verify the second‐by‐second reconstruction capability of our technique in three synthetic field campaigns, finding positive Pearson correlation coefficient values () between ground‐truth and reconstructed streamwise velocity, as well as smaller positive correlation coefficient values for unobserved fields (spanwise velocity, vertical velocity, and temperature). We validate our technique in three real‐world case studies by driving large‐eddy simulations with reconstructed inflows and comparing to independent inflow measurements. The reconstructions are visually similar to measurements, follow desired power spectra properties, and track second‐by‐second behavior ().

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Correlation Between Atmospheric Dust Deposition to the Surface Ocean and SeaWiFS Ocean Color: A Global Satellite-Based Analysis

Since the atmospheric deposition of iron has been linked to primary productivity in various oceanic regions, we have conducted an objective study of the correlation of dust deposition and satellite remotely sensed surface ocean chlorophyll concentrations. We present a global analysis of the correlation between atmospheric dust deposition derived from a satellite-based 3-D atmospheric transport model and SeaWiFs estimates of ocean color. We use the monthly mean dust deposition fields of Ginoux et al. which are based on a global model of dust generation and transport. This model is driven by atmospheric circulation from the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) for the period 1995-1998. This global dust model is constrained by several satellite estimates of standard circulation characteristics. We then perform an analysis of the correlation between the dust deposition and the 1998 SeaWIFS ocean color data for each 2.0 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid point, for each month of the year. The results are surprisingly robust. The region between 40 S and 60 S has correlation coefficients from 0.6 to 0.95, statistically significant at the 0.05 level. There are swaths of high correlation at the edges of some major ocean current systems. We interpret these correlations as reflecting areas that have shear related turbulence bringing nitrogen and phosphorus from depth into the surface ocean, and the atmospheric supply of iron provides the limiting nutrient and the correlation between iron deposition and surface ocean chlorophyll is high. There is a region in the western North Pacific with high correlation, reflecting the input of Asian dust to that region. The southern hemisphere has an average correlation coefficient of 0.72 compared that in the northern hemisphere of 0.42 consistent with present conceptual models of where atmospheric iron deposition may play a role in surface ocean biogeochemical cycles. The spatial structure of the correlation fields will be discussed within the context of guiding the design of field programs.

Erickson, D. J., III↗

Detection of moisture and moisture related phenomena from Skylab

The author has identified the following significant results. Correlations between the S-194 antenna temperature and soil moisture have been obtained for three sets of data; one for Skylab 2 and two for Skylab 3. The best correlations were obtained for the surface to one inch depth in two cases and for the surface to two inches for the third case. Correlation coefficients for the surface to one inch depth were -0.98, -0.95, and -0.82. The lowest correlation coefficient was obtained with total soil moisture variations less than 4% across the test site.

Eagleman, J. R.↗

Data Mining Methods Applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance Data: A Comparison to Standard Statistical Methods

In a previous study, multiple regression techniques were applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance-derived data to develop parsimonious model(s) for fuel consumption on the Boeing 757 airplane. The present study examined several data mining algorithms, including neural networks, on the fuel consumption problem and compared them to the multiple regression results obtained earlier. Using regression methods, parsimonious models were obtained that explained approximately 85% of the variation in fuel flow. In general data mining methods were more effective in predicting fuel consumption. Classification and Regression Tree methods reported correlation coefficients of .91 to .92, and General Linear Models and Multilayer Perceptron neural networks reported correlation coefficients of about .99. These data mining models show great promise for use in further examining large FOQA databases for operational and safety improvements.

Stolzer, Alan J.↗

A study of the coherence length of ULF waves in the earth's foreshock

High-time-resolution magnetic-field data for different separations of ISEE 1 and 2 in the earth's ion foreshock region are examined to study the coherence length of upstream ULF waves. Examining the correlation coefficients of the low-frequency waves as a function of separation distance shows that the correlation coefficient depends mainly on the separation distance of ISEE 1 and 2 transverse to the solar-wind flow. It drops to about 0.5 when the transverse separation is about 1 earth radius, a distance much larger than the proton thermal gyroradius in the solar wind. Thus the coherence length of the low-frequency waves is about one earth radius, which is of the order of the wavelength, and is consistent with that estimated from the bandwidth of the waves.

Le, G.↗

Sea Surface Height Anomalies of the Arctic Ocean from Icesat-2: A First Examination and Comparisons with Cryosat-2

Accurately resolving spatio-temporal variations in sea surface height across the polar oceans is key to improving our understanding of ocean circulation variability and change. Here, we examine the first two years (2018-2020) of Arctic Ocean sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) from the photon-counting laser altimeter onboard NASA’s ICE, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). ICESat-2 SSHA estimates are compared to estimates from ESA’s CryoSat-2 mission, including semi-synchronous along-track measurements from the recent CRYO2ICE orbit alignment campaign. There are documented residual centimeter-scale range biases between the ICESat-2 beams (in release-003 data) and we opted for a single-beam approach in our comparisons. We find good agreement in the along-track estimates (spatial correlation coefficient >0.8 and mean differences <0.03 m) as well as in the gridded monthly SSHA estimates (temporal correlation coefficient of 0.76 and a mean difference of 0.01 m) from the two altimeters, suggesting ICESat-2 adds to the CryoSat-2 SSHA estimates.

ICESat-2↗

The Correlation Between Tropical Convection and Upper Tropospheric Momentum Flux Convergence

In this study, the relationship between tropical convection and the meridional convergence of zonal momentum flux in the tropical upper troposphere is investigated using NOAA interpolated outgoing longwave radiation data and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis wind data. In particular, a variety of correlation coefficients are calculated between the data sets, both of which are filtered to isolate disturbances with frequencies and wavenumbers consistent with the Madden-Julian oscillation. The results show regions of significant correlation during each season, with the magnitude and area covered by significant correlation coefficients varying with season. Furthermore, it is found that the correlation structures look very similar to theoretical calculations of the atmospheric response to a region of tropical heating. This result suggests that tropical waves, in particular mixed Rossby-gravity waves, play an important role in the meridional transport zonal momentum into the deep tropical upper troposphere. Finally, these findings have implications to the generation of rising motion near the tropical tropopause, which in turn has ramifications for vertical moisture transport and tropopause cirrus formation.

O'CStarr, David↗

Approximation of ice phenology of Maine lakes using Aqua MODIS surface temperature data

Studies of lake ice phenology have historically relied on limited in situ data. Relatively few observations exist for ice out and fewer still for ice in, both of which are necessary to determine the temporal extent of ice cover. Satellite data provide an opportunity to better document patterns of ice phenology across landscapes and relate them to the climatological drivers behind changing ice phenology. We developed a model, the Cumulative Sum Method (CSM), that uses daytime and nighttime surface temperature observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board the Earth-observing Aqua satellite to approximate ice in (the onset of ice cover) and ice out from training datasets of 13 and 58 Maine lakes, respectively, during the 2002/2003 through 2017/2018 ice seasons. Ice in was signaled by reaching a threshold of cumulative negative degrees following the first day of the season below 0°C. Ice out was signaled by reaching a threshold of cumulative positive degrees following the first day of the year above 0°C. The comparison of observed and remotely sensed ice-in dates showed relative agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.8 days. Ice-out approximations had a correlation coefficient of 0.67 and an MAE of 8.8 days. Lakes smaller in surface area and nearer the Atlantic coast had the greatest error in approximation. Application of the CSM to 20 additional lakes in Maine produced a comparable ice-out MAE of 8.9 days. Ice-out model performance was weaker for the warmest years; there was a larger MAE of 12.0 days when the model was applied to the years 2019–2023 for the original 58 lakes. The development of this model, which utilizes daily satellite data, demonstrates the promise of remote sensing for quantifying ice phenology over short, temporal scales, and wider geographic regions than can be observed in situ, and allows exploration of the influence of surface temperature patterns on the process and timing of ice in and ice out.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Common Calibration Source Framework for Fully-Polarimetric and Interferometric Radiometers

Two types of microwave radiometry--synthetic thinned array radiometry (STAR) and fully-polarimetric (FP) radiometry--have received increasing attention during the last several years. STAR radiometers offer a technological solution to achieving high spatial resolution imaging from orbit without requiring a filled aperture or a moving antenna, and FP radiometers measure extra polarization state information upon which entirely new or more robust geophysical retrieval algorithms can be based. Radiometer configurations used for both STAR and FP instruments share one fundamental feature that distinguishes them from more 'standard' radiometers, namely, they measure correlations between pairs of microwave signals. The calibration requirements for correlation radiometers are broader than those for standard radiometers. Quantities of interest include total powers, complex correlation coefficients, various offsets, and possible nonlinearities. A candidate for an ideal calibration source would be one that injects test signals with precisely controllable correlation coefficients and absolute powers simultaneously into a pair of receivers, permitting all of these calibration quantities to be measured. The complex nature of correlation radiometer calibration, coupled with certain inherent similarities between STAR and FP instruments, suggests significant leverage in addressing both problems together. Recognizing this, a project was recently begun at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center to develop a compact low-power subsystem for spaceflight STAR or FP receiver calibration. We present a common theoretical framework for the design of signals for a controlled correlation calibration source. A statistical model is described, along with temporal and spectral constraints on such signals. Finally, a method for realizing these signals is demonstrated using a Matlab-based implementation.

Kim, Edward J.↗

Semimajor Axis Estimation Strategies

This paper extends previous analysis on the impact of sensing noise for the navigation and control aspects of formation flying spacecraft. We analyze the use of Carrier-phase Differential GPS (CDGPS) in relative navigation filters, with a particular focus on the filter correlation coefficient. This work was motivated by previous publications which suggested that a "good" navigation filter would have a strong correlation (i.e., coefficient near -1) to reduce the semimajor axis (SMA) error, and therefore, the overall fuel use. However, practical experience with CDGPS-based filters has shown this strong correlation seldom occurs (typical correlations approx. -0.1), even when the estimation accuracies are very good. We derive an analytic estimate of the filter correlation coefficient and demonstrate that, for the process and sensor noises levels expected with CDGPS, the expected value will be very low. It is also demonstrated that this correlation can be improved by increasing the time step of the discrete Kalman filter, but since the balance condition is not satisfied, the SMA error also increases. These observations are verified with several linear simulations. The combination of these simulations and analysis provide new insights on the crucial role of the process noise in determining the semimajor axis knowledge.

How, Jonathan P.↗

A Global Ozone Climatology from Ozone Soundings via Trajectory Mapping: A Stratospheric Perspective

This study explores a domain-filling trajectory approach to generate a global ozone climatology from sparse ozonesonde data. Global ozone soundings of 51,898 profiles at 116 stations over 44 years (1965-2008) are used, from which forward and backward trajectories are performed for 4 days, driven by a set of meteorological reanalysis data. Ozone mixing ratios of each sounding from the surface to 26 km altitude are assigned to the entire path along the trajectory. The resulting global ozone climatology is archived monthly for five decades from the 1960s to the 2000s with grids of 5 degree 5 degree 1 km (latitude, longitude, and altitude). It is also archived yearly from 1965 to 2008. This climatology is validated at 20 ozonesonde stations by comparing the actual ozone sounding profile with that found through the trajectories, using the ozone soundings at all the stations except one being tested. The two sets of profiles are in good agreement, both individually with correlation coefficients between 0.975 and 0.998 and root mean square (RMS) differences of 87 to 482 ppbv, and overall with a correlation coefficient of 0.991 and an RMS of 224 ppbv. The ozone climatology is also compared with two sets of satellite data, from the Satellite Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and the Optical Spectrography and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS). Overall, the ozone climatology compares well with SAGE and OSIRIS data by both seasonal and zonal means. The mean difference is generally under 20 above 15 km. The comparison is better in the northern hemisphere, where there are more ozonesonde stations, than in the southern hemisphere; it is also better in the middle and high latitudes than in the tropics, where assimilated winds are imperfect in some regions. This ozone climatology can capture known features in the stratosphere, as well as seasonal and decadal variations of these features. Furthermore, it provides a wealth of detail about longitudinal variations in the stratosphere such as the spring ozone maximum over the Canadian Arctic. It also covers higher latitudes than current satellite data. The climatology shows clearly the depletion of ozone from the 1970s to the mid 1990s and ozone recovery in the 2000s. When this climatology is used as the upper boundary condition in an Environment Canada operational chemical forecast model, the forecast is improved in the vicinity of the upper tropospherelower stratosphere region. As this ozone climatology is neither dependent on a priori data or photochemical modeling, it provides independent information and insight that can supplement satellite data and model simulations and enhance our understanding of stratospheric ozone.

SAGE↗

A Convective Vorticity Vector Associated With Tropical Convection: A 2D Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study

Although dry/moist potential vorticity is a useful physical quantity for meteorological analysis, it cannot be applied to the analysis of 2D simulations. A convective vorticity vector (CVV) is introduced in this study to analyze 2D cloud-resolving simulation data associated with 2D tropical convection. The cloud model is forced by the vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal advection, and sea surface temperature obtained from the TOGA COARE, and is integrated for a selected 10-day period. The CVV has zonal and vertical components in the 2D x-z frame. Analysis of zonally-averaged and mass-integrated quantities shows that the correlation coefficient between the vertical component of the CVV and the sum of the cloud hydrometeor mixing ratios is 0.81, whereas the correlation coefficient between the zonal component and the sum of the mixing ratios is only 0.18. This indicates that the vertical component of the CVV is closely associated with tropical convection. The tendency equation for the vertical component of the CVV is derived and the zonally-averaged and mass-integrated tendency budgets are analyzed. The tendency of the vertical component of the CVV is determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal gradient of cloud heating. The results demonstrate that the vertical component of the CVV is a cloud-linked parameter and can be used to study tropical convection.

Gao, Shou-Ting↗

Correlations of TOMS total ozone data (Nimbus-7 satellite) with tropopause height

Two correlation studies of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data with tropopause height from radiosondes performed over Europe showed a correlation coefficient of 0.94 and 0.96. As a result, the rms error in the prediction of tropopause height from total ozone was found to be 20 mb. Correlation between tropopause height and TOMS data was the highest of all the other correlations with variables directly derived from radiosondes or simulated thermal radiances over the location of radiosondes. Comparing the two dimensional fields of TOMS, tropopause height from radiosondes and tropopause height field from TIROS-N retrievals, we can say that the first field is much closer to the true field from radiosondes than the third. The correlation coefficient for a ten-day study between TOMS data and tropopause height from radiosondes is between 0.85 and 0.9 for 30-70N. Tropopause analysis provided by GLA model also shows a very high correlation with TOMS data.

Munteanu, Marie-Jeanne↗

Velocity reconstruction in the era of DESI and Rubin/LSST. II. Realistic samples on the light cone

Reconstructing the galaxy peculiar velocity field from the distribution of large-scale structure plays an important role in cosmology. On one hand, it gives us an insight into structure formation and gravity; on the other, it allows us to selectively extract the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect from cosmic microwave background maps. In this work, we employ high-accuracy synthetic galaxy catalogs on the light cone to investigate how well we can recover the velocity field when utilizing the three-dimensional spatial distribution of the galaxies in a modern large-scale structure experiment such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time. In particular, we adopt the standard technique used in baryon acoustic oscillation analysis for reconstructing the Zel’dovich displacements of galaxies through the continuity equation, which yields a first-order approximation to their large-scale velocities. We investigate variations in the number density, bias, mask, area, redshift noise, and survey depth, as well as modifications to the settings of the standard reconstruction algorithm. Since our main goal is to provide guidance for planned kSZ analysis between DESI and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, we apply velocity reconstruction to a faithful representation of DESI spectroscopic and photometric targets. We report the cross-correlation coefficient between the reconstructed and the true velocities along the line of sight. For the DESI Y1 spectroscopic survey, we expect the correlation coefficient to be r ≈ 0.64, while for a photometric survey with δ z /(1+z) = 0.02, as is approximately the case for the Legacy Survey used in the target selection of DESI galaxies, r shrinks by half to r ≈ 0.31. Here, we hope the results in this paper can be used to inform future kSZ stacking studies and other velocity reconstruction analyses planned with the next generation of cosmology experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A method for predicting the noise levels of coannular jets with inverted velocity profiles

A coannular jet was equated with a single stream equivalent jet with the same mass flow, energy, and thrust. The acoustic characteristics of the coannular jet were then related to the acoustic characteristics of the single jet. Forward flight effects were included by incorporating a forward exponent, a Doppler amplification factor, and a Strouhal frequency shift. Model test data, including 48 static cases and 22 wind tunnel cases, were used to evaluate the prediction method. For the static cases and the low forward velocity wind tunnel cases, the spectral mean square pressure correlation coefficients were generally greater than 90 percent, and the spectral sound pressure level standard deviation were generally less than 3 decibels. The correlation coefficient and the standard deviation were not affected by changes in equivalent jet velocity. Limitations of the prediction method are also presented.

Russell, J. W.↗

Examination of Lambertian and Non-lambertian Models for Simulating the Topographic Effect on Remotely Sensed Data

As a preliminary step to developing a technique to eliminate the topographic effect from remotely sensed data, two radiance simulation models were examined and compared. A Lambertian and a non-Lambertian model were tested using hand-held radiometer measurements from a uniform surface at different slope angle aspect orientations. Linear correlation coefficients for the non-Lambertian model and the field spectra were calculated to be greater than 0.92 for all cases; whereas correlation coefficients for the Lambertian model ranged from 0.06 to 0.98. An assumption regarding an empirical constant within the non-Lambertian equation was found to be invalid and the model was improved by using subsets of the data to derive the empirical value.

Justice, C.↗

Near wall flow parameters in the blade end-wall corner region

The effects of secondary end-wall corner flows on near wall flow parameters in turbomachinary are studied. Important near wall flow parameters such as the wall shear stress vector, the mean wall pressure, the wall pressure fluctuations, and the correlation of the wall pressure fluctuation with the velocity fluctuation in three-dimensional turbulent flows are first experimentally investigated. The blade end-wall corner region is simulated by mounting airfoil section of symmetric blades on both sides of the flat plate with semicircular leading edge. Observed changes in the maximum values of the wall shear stress and its location from the corner line could be associated with the streching and attenuation of the horseshoe vortex. The values of wall pressure fluctuation intensity in the blade end-wall corner region are found to be influenced by the changes of the strength of the horseshoe vortex. The correlation of the wall pressure fluctuation with the velocity fluctuation indicated higher values of correlation coefficient in the inner region as compared to the outer region of the shear layer. The values of wall pressure-velocity correlation coefficient in the blade end-wall corner region also decrease in the streamwise direction while increasing in the presence of favorable and adverse pressure gradients.

R K Bhargava↗