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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Cloud-to-ground lightning activity in mesoscale convective complexes

An analysis of the evolution of cloud-to-ground lightning discharges attending convective storms in mesoscale convective systems was conducted in the framework of the mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) life cycle. The lightning discharge data were acquired by a commercially available lightning detection and location system. Peak rates averaged 42/min for the MCCs analyzed; these rates are comparable to the highest observed rates within other mesoscale storm systems and are greater than 20 times the rates previously observed in isolated thunderstorms. Lightning damage occurs with half of the MCCs and is most frequent between the development and the mature phases of the MCC life cycle. The most active period is also characterized by the greatest average number of discrete strokes and largest fraction of multiple-stroke discharges. The total cloud-to-ground lightning activity and maximum flashing rate do not appear to be directly related to either the size of the cloud shield or total duration of the MCC.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Can High-resolution WRF Simulations Be Used for Short-term Forecasting of Lightning?

A number of research teams have begun to make quasi-operational forecast simulations at high resolution with models such as the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. These model runs have used horizontal meshes of 2-4 km grid spacing, and thus resolved convective storms explicitly. In the light of recent global satellite-based observational studies that reveal robust relationships between total lightning flash rates and integrated amounts of precipitation-size ice hydrometeors in storms, it is natural to inquire about the capabilities of these convection-resolving models in representing the ice hydrometeor fields faithfully. If they do, this might make operational short-term forecasts of lightning activity feasible. We examine high-resolution WRF simulations from several Southeastern cases for which either NLDN or LMA lightning data were available. All the WRF runs use a standard microphysics package that depicts only three ice species, cloud ice, snow and graupel. The realism of the WRF simulations is examined by comparisons with both lightning and radar observations and with additional even higher-resolution cloud-resolving model runs. Preliminary findings are encouraging in that they suggest that WRF often makes convective storms of the proper size in approximately the right location, but they also indicate that higher resolution and better hydrometeor microphysics would be helpful in improving the realism of the updraft strengths, reflectivity and ice hydrometeor fields.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Severe storm identification with satellite microwave radiometry: An initial investigation with Nimbus-7 SMMR data

The severe weather characteristics of convective storms as observed by the Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) are investigated. Low 37 GHz brightness temperatures (due to scattering of upwelling radiation by precipitation size ice) are related to the occurrence of severe weather (large hail, strong winds or wind damage, tornadoes and funnel clouds) within one hour of the satellite observation time. During 1979 and 1980 over the United States there were 263 storms which had very cold 37 GHz signatures. Of these storms 15% were severe. The SMMR detected hail, wind, and tornadic storms equally well. Critical Success Indices (CSI's) of 0.32, 0.48, and 0.38 are achieved for the thresholding of severe vs. nonsevere low brightness temperature events during 1979, 1980, and the two years combined, respectively. Such scores are comparable to skill scores for early radar detection methods. These results suggest that a future geostationary passive microwave imaging capability at 37 GHz, with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution, would allow the detection of severe convective storms. This capability would provide a useful complement to radar, especially in areas not covered by radar.

Spencer, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Better understanding of intense and tornadic thunderstorms through research using geostationary satellite data

The use of satellite data to study convective storm behavior and better understand intense and tornadic storm development is discussed. The influence of terrain and cloud cover on thunderstorm development, the life cycle and dynamics of the arc cloud line, and the difference in the thermodynamic characteristics of the air into which it advances are examined. The properties of convective-scale interaction are outlined, and the way in which severe convective storms can be isolated using satellite imagery is described. Examples of studies of severe convective and tornadic storms using GOES imagery are presented.

Purdom, James F. W.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The terminal area simulation system. Volume 2: Verification cases

The numerical simulation of five case studies are presented and are compared with available data in order to verify the three-dimensional version of the Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS). A spectrum of convective storm types are selected for the case studies. Included are: a High-Plains supercell hailstorm, a small and relatively short-lived High-Plains cumulonimbus, a convective storm which produced the 2 August 1985 DFW microburst, a South Florida convective complex, and a tornadic Oklahoma thunderstorm. For each of the cases the model results compared reasonably well with observed data. In the simulations of the supercell storms many of their characteristic features were modeled, such as the hook echo, BWER, mesocyclone, gust fronts, giant persistent updraft, wall cloud, flanking-line towers, anvil and radar reflectivity overhang, and rightward veering in the storm propagation. In the simulation of the tornadic storm a horseshoe-shaped updraft configuration and cyclic changes in storm intensity and structure were noted. The simulation of the DFW microburst agreed remarkably well with sparse observed data. The simulated outflow rapidly expanded in a nearly symmetrical pattern and was associated with a ringvortex. A South Florida convective complex was simulated and contained updrafts and downdrafts in the form of discrete bubbles. The numerical simulations, in all cases, always remained stable and bounded with no anomalous trends.

Proctor, F. H.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Use of High-resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of recent forecast models such as WRF, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Six-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data yield the most realistic simulations. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics are employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, William E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

High-Resolution WRF Forecasts of Lightning Threat

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)lightning and precipitation observations have confirmed the existence of a robust relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Initial experiments using 6-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. The WRF has been initialized on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics is employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Providing operational guidance for the development of sea breeze thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center - An experiment using a mesoscale numerical model

The effectiveness of a mesoscale numerical model to provide improved local forecast guidance is evaluated with respect to sea breeze convection storms at the Kennedy Space Center. The model and operational forecast guidance production are described. A case study is presented for sea breeze convection storms and lightning events on July 1, 1986. It is found that the mesoscale numerical model outperforms purely subjective predictions of sea breeze convection. The range of applications for the model are considered.

Lyons, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The life cycle of a tornadic cloud as seen from a geosynchronous satellite

The life span of a severe storm is on the order of a few hours. Rapid-scan infrared and visible observations from geosynchronous satellites can be useful for studying the life cycle of a severe convective storm. By using artificial colors for pixels representing blackbody temperatures of the cloud top, convective storms can be observed throughout their life cycles. In this paper clouds associated with a tornadic storm, the Ringwood, OK tornado on May 29, 1977, are compared with those without a tornadic storm to illustrate how the infrared and visible observations from a geosynchronous satellite can be used to study the differences in their life cycles. The instability of the air mass and the meteorological background are discussed based on balloon observations.

Hung, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Vorticity imbalance and stability in relation to convection

A complete synoptic-scale vorticity budget was related to convection storm development in the eastern two-thirds of the United States. The 3-h sounding interval permitted a study of time changes of the vorticity budget in areas of convective storms. Results of analyses revealed significant changes in values of terms in the vorticity equation at different stages of squall line development. Average budgets for all areas of convection indicate systematic imbalance in the terms in the vorticity equation. This imbalance resulted primarily from sub-grid scale processes. Potential instability in the lower troposphere was analyzed in relation to the development of convective activity. Instability was related to areas of convection; however, instability alone was inadequate for forecast purposes. Combinations of stability and terms in the vorticity equation in the form of indices succeeded in depicting areas of convection better than any one item separately.

Read, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Coordinated field study for CaPE: Analysis of energy and water budgets

The objectives of this hydrologic cycle study are to understand and model (1) surface energy and land-atmosphere water transfer processes, and (2) interactions between convective storms and surface energy fluxes. A surface energy budget measurement campaign was carried out by an interdisciplinary science team during the period July 8 - August 19, 1991 as part of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment (CaPE) in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral, FL. Among the research themes associated with CaPE is the remote estimation of rainfall. Thus, in addition to surface radiation and energy budget measurements, surface mesonet, special radiosonde, precipitation, high-resolution satellite (SPOT) data, geosynchronous (GOES) and polar orbiting (DMSP SSM/I, OLS; NOAA AVHRR) satellite data, and high altitude airplane data (AMPR, MAMS, HIS) were collected. Initial quality control of the seven surface flux station data sets has begun. Ancillary data sets are being collected and assembled for analysis. Browsing of GOES and radar data has begun to classify days as disturbed/undisturbed to identify the larger scale forcing of the pre-convective environment, convection storms and precipitation. The science analysis plan has been finalized and tasks assigned to various investigators.

Goodman, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

Lightning one of the most dangerous weather-related phenomena, especially as many jobs and activities occur outdoors, presenting risk from a lightning strike. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning represents a considerable safety threat to people at airfields, marinas, and outdoor facilities-from airfield personnel, to people attending outdoor stadium events, on beaches and golf courses, to mariners, as well as emergency personnel. Holle et al. (2005) show that 90% of lightning deaths occurred outdoors, while 10% occurred indoors despite the perception of safety when inside buildings. Curran et al. (2000) found that nearly half of fatalities due to weather were related to convective weather in the 1992-1994 timeframe, with lightning causing a large component of the fatalities, in addition to tornadoes and flash flooding. Related to the aviation industry, CG lightning represents a considerable hazard to baggage-handlers, aircraft refuelers, food caterers, and emergency personnel, who all become exposed to the risk of being struck within short time periods while convective storm clouds develop. Airport safety protocols require that ramp operations be modified or discontinued when lightning is in the vicinity (typically 16 km), which becomes very costly and disruptive to flight operations. Therefore, much focus has been paid to nowcasting the first-time initiation and extent of lightning, both of CG and of any lightning (e.g, in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud). For this project three lightning nowcasting methodologies will be combined: (1) a GOESbased 0-1 hour lightning initiation (LI) product (Harris et al. 2010; Iskenderian et al. 2012), (2) a High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) lightning probability and forecasted lightning flash density product, such that a quantitative amount of lightning (QL) can be assigned to a location of expected LI, and (3) an algorithm that relates Pseudo-GLM data (Stano et al. 2012, 2014) to the so-called "lightning jump" (LJ) methodology (Shultz et al. 2011) to monitor lightning trends and to anticipate/forecast severe weather (hail > or =2.5 cm, winds > or =25 m/s, tornadoes). The result will be a time-continuous algorithm that uses GOES satellite, radar fields, and HRRR model fields to nowcast first-flash LI and QL, and subsequently monitors lightning trends on a perstorm basis within the LJ algorithm for possible severe weather occurrence out to > or =3 hours. The LI-QL-LJ product will also help prepare the operational forecast community for Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data expected in late 2015, as these data are monitored for ongoing convective storms. The LI-QL-LJ product will first predict where new lightning is highly probable using GOES imagery of developing cumulus clouds, followed by n analysis of NWS (dual-polarization) radar indicators (reflectivity at the -10 C altitude) of lightning occurrence, to increase confidence that LI is immanent. Once lightning is observed, time-continuous lightning mapping array and Pseudo-GLM observations will be analyzed to assess trends and the severe weather threat as identified by trends in lightning (i.e. LJs). Additionally, 5- and 15-min GOES imagery will then be evaluated on a per-storm basis for overshooting and other cloud-top features known to be associated with severe storms. For the processing framework, the GOES-R 0-1 hour convective initiation algorithm's output will be developed within the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) tracking tool, and merged with radar and lightning (LMA/Psuedo-GLM) datasets for active storms. The initial focus of system development will be over North Alabama for select lightning-active days in summer 2014, yet will be formed in an expandable manner. The lightning alert tool will also be developed in concert with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to meet their needs for real-time, accurate first-flash LI and timing, as well as anticipated lightning trends, amounts, continuation and cessation, so to provide key situational awareness and decision support information. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center will provide important logistical and collaborative support and training, involving interactions with the NWS and broader user community.

Mecikalski, John↗
NASA NTRS1981

Summary of flight tests of an airborne lighting locator system and comparison with ground-based measurements of precipitation and turbulence

Data from an airborne lightning locator system and data relating to storm intensity obtained by ground-based Doppler radars and the S-band research radar are presented. When comparing lightning locations from the airborne lightning locator system with ground-based Doppler radar measurements of reflectivity and spectrum width, the lightning locations tended to be further from the aircraft position than the Doppler radar contours, but at the same relative bearing from the aircraft as the Doppler contours. The results also show that convective storms generate little or no lightning for a significant part of their life cycle, but can produce at least moderate turbulence. Therefore, it is concluded that a lack of lightning activity cannot be accepted as an inference of a corresponding lack of other hazards to the flight of aircraft through convective storms.

Fisher, B. D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Graupel and Snow Determination in Convection Using Dual-Wavelength Radar

Convective storms contain significant amounts of snow and graupel that each have different scattering properties for radar and radiometer remote sensing. TRMM TMI algorithms have relied heavily on radiative transfer calculations based on cloud model predicted microphysics information. In general, without in situ aircraft measurements, it is very difficult to separate snow and graupel using remote measurements. At the 94 GHZ frequency, snow is weakly attenuating while graupel is strongly attenuating. With a non-attenuating frequency such as X-band, one can distinguish Mie scattering from larger hydrometeors as well as attenuation from graupel. The presence of supercooled water will also cause attenuation of the 94 GHz radar signal, but this is mainly in convective updrafts. We will present preliminary results aimed at distinguishing snow from graupel using dual-wavelength (9.6 GHz, 94 GHz) measurements from aircraft overflights of convective storms in Florida. Measurements were made with the 9.6 GHz ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP) and the 94 GHz Cloud Radar System (CRS) over a number of different precipitation systems. Analysis of the vertical profiles at the two wavelengths provides information on snow and graupel regions, as well as supercooled water. The presentation will include examples from different cases and discussion of the results.

Heymsfield, Gerald↗
NASA NTRS1985

Severe wind flow of small spatial and temporal scales: The microburst and related phenomena

Low-altitude winds on the meso- and microscale are the primary focus of study for the Research Applications Program (RAP) of NCAR. Local weather features such as microbursts, microburst lines, gust fronts, and convergent wind boundaries have been observed and documented extensively. A microburst is a strong, small-scale convective storm outflow which diverges horizontally in all directions upon impact with the ground (Fujita, 1981). A microburst line is composed of two or more microbursts which occur either simultaneously or consecutively, and subsequently form a diverging line of outflow. The temporal and spatial scales of these phenomena are shown. Microbursts and microburst lines generally occur on both the meso- and microscale, while gust fronts and convergent wind boundaries overlap into the mesoscale. Microbursts, in particular, not only are small spatially but are also a short-lived phenomenon. Clearly, some of these features are on a much smaller spatial and temporal scale than can be resolved by a global wind measurement. During the past three years, three experiments were held in the Denver, CO, area to observe boundary-layer winds. Their main objectives were observation and documentation of those weather features discussed above. The Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) Project, which ran in the summer of 1982, was set up to study microbursts. The Convective Initiation Project (1984) was designed to document clear-air convergent wind boundaries, including gust fronts, and their role in convective storm initiation. This project was immediately followed by the Classify, Locate, and Avoid Wind Shear experiment that expanded upon the work done in JAWS. Details on the scales of these weather features are presented. The wind sensors used to detect these phenomena are also discussed. Concluding comments address the usefulness of a global wind measurement system as it pertains to our local scale of interest.

Roberts, Rita D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Characteristics of Thunderstorms and Lightning Flashes Which Produce Mesospheric Transient Luminous Events

A six year record of optical observations of lightning-induced mesospheric transient luminous events (TLEs) is available from the Yucca Ridge Field Station (YRFS) near Ft. Collins, CO. Climatological analyses reveal sprites and elves occur in a variety of convective storm types, but principally mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and squall lines. Severe supercell storms rarely produce TLEs, except during their dissipating stage. Few TLEs are observed during storms with radar echo areas <7,500 sq km. Above this size there is a modest correlation with radar areal coverage. A typical High Plains storm produces 45 TLEs over a 143 interval. Sprites and most elves are associated with +CGs. The probability of a TLE increases with peak current. In six storms, 5.1% of +CGs produced TLEs, the number increasing to 32% of +CGs with >75 kA and 52% of +CGs with >100 kA peak current.

Lyons, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Convection-allowing numerical weather simula- tions have often been shown to produce convective storms that have significant sensitivity to choices of model physical parameterizations. Among the most important of these sensitivities are those related to cloud microphysics, but planetary boundary layer parameterizations also have a significant impact on the evolution of the convection. Aspects of the simulated convection that display sensitivity to these physics schemes include updraft size and intensity, simulated radar reflectivity, timing and placement of storm initi- ation and decay, total storm rainfall, and other storm features derived from storm structure and hydrometeor fields, such as predicted lightning flash rates. In addition to the basic parameters listed above, the simulated storms may also exhibit sensitivity to im- posed initial conditions, such as the fields of soil temper- ature and moisture, vegetation cover and health, and sea and lake water surface temperatures. Some of these sensitivities may rival those of the basic physics sensi- tivities mentioned earlier. These sensitivities have the potential to disrupt the accuracy of short-term forecast simulations of convective storms, and thereby pose sig- nificant difficulties for weather forecasters. To make a systematic study of the quantitative impacts of each of these sensitivities, a matrix of simulations has been performed using all combinations of eight separate microphysics schemes, three boundary layer schemes, and two sets of initial conditions. The first version of initial conditions consists of the default data from large-scale operational model fields, while the second features specialized higher- resolution soil conditions, vegetation conditions and water surface temperatures derived from datasets created at NASA's Short-term Prediction and Operational Research Tran- sition (SPoRT) Center at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL. Simulations as outlined above, each 48 in number, were conducted for five midsummer weakly sheared coastal convective events each at two sites, Mobile, AL (MOB) and Houston, TX (HGX). Of special interest to operational forecasters at MOB and HGX were accuracy of timing and placement of convective storm initiation, reflectivity magnitudes and coverage, rainfall and inferred lightning threat.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗