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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Microscale spatial distribution and soil organic matter persistence in top and subsoil

The spatial distribution of organic substrates and microscale soil heterogeneity significantly influence organic matter (OM) persistence as constraints on OM accessibility to microorganisms. However, it is unclear how changes in OM spatial heterogeneity driven by factors such as soil depth affect the relative importance of substrate spatial distribution on OM persistence. This work evaluated the decomposition and persistence of 13 C and 15 N labeled water-extractable OM inputs over 50 days as either hotspot (i.e., pelleted in 1–2 mm-size pieces) or distributed (i.e., added as OM < 0.07 μm suspended in water) forms in topsoil (0–0.2 m) and subsoil (0.8–0.9 m) samples of an Andisol. We observed greater persistence of added C in the subsoil with distributed OM inputs relative to hotspot OM, indicated by a 17% reduction in cumulative mineralization of the added C and a 10% higher conversion to mineral-associated OM. A lower substrate availability potentially reduced mineralization due to OM dispersion throughout the soil. NanoSIMS (nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry) analysis identified organo-mineral associations on cross-sectioned aggregate interiors in the subsoil. On the other hand, in the topsoil, we did not observe significant differences in the persistence of OM, suggesting that the large amounts of particulate OM already present in the soil outweighed the influence of added OM spatial distribution. Here, we demonstrated under laboratory conditions that the spatial distribution of fresh OM input alone significantly affected the decomposition and persistence of OM inputs in the subsoil. On the other hand, spatial distribution seems to play a lower role in topsoils rich in particulate OM. The divergence in the influence of OM spatial distribution between the top and subsoil is likely driven by differences in soil mineralogy and OM composition.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing the Effect of Anthropogenically Amplified Halogen Natural Emissions on Tropospheric Ozone Chemistry Between Pre-Industrial and Present-Day

Reactive halogens (X + XO, X = I, Br or Cl) catalytically destroy a fraction of tropospheric ozone under present-day (PD) conditions, however, their distribution and potential impact on tropospheric ozone under pre-industrial (PI) conditions remain largely unexplored. This study uses the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem) to investigate the effect of anthropogenically amplified natural emissions of halogenated species and their subsequent chemistry on tropospheric ozone under PI and PD atmospheric conditions. Model results show that the global tropospheric ozone depletion due to natural halogens is slightly more sensitive in PI than PD, with percentage changes in tropospheric ozone burden (TOB) of -14.1 ± 0.6% for PI and -12.9 ± 0.6% for PD. Individually, the role of iodine and chlorine in ozone depletion is equivalent in both periods (ΔTOB I : ~-7% and ΔTOB Cl : ~-2.5%), while bromine plays a larger role in PI (ΔTOB Br : -5.5 ± 0.6%) versus PD (ΔTOB Br : -4.3 ± 0.7%). The increase in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions from PI to PD has amplified the natural emission of inorganic halogens and led to a shift in the partitioning of inorganic halogens from reactive to reservoir species. Consequently, halogen-driven ozone depletion from the surface to the free troposphere is larger in PI than PD. In contrast, in the upper troposphere, the ozone depletion is larger in PD influenced mainly by stratospheric intrusion of reactive halogens from long-lived species. This study highlights the importance of including a complete chemical coupling of natural halogens and atmospheric pollutants in chemistry-climate models to adequately assess their effects on tropospheric ozone in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast Tuning-Free Distributed Algorithm for Solving the Network-Constrained Economic Dispatch

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) and their participation in the electricity market, it becomes more desirable to apply distributed algorithms for resource allocation in order to address the resulting computational and communicational challenges. Most of the existing distributed algorithms for solving the network-constrained economic dispatch (NCED) problem require the tuning of certain auxiliary parameters. As a result, the robustness of these algorithms against the varieties in DERs is greatly undermined. In this paper, a new distributed algorithm, optimality condition consensus (OCC), is proposed to solve the NCED problem by using distributed power flow (DPF) and ratio consensus as fundamental tools. It inherits the advantages of existing distributed algorithms for the NCED problem but removes the need for parameter tuning to improve performance in practice. In conclusion, the effectiveness of the proposed distributed algorithm in terms of efficiency, scalability, and robustness is demonstrated through detailed case studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Product distribution, kinetics, and aerosol formation from the OH oxidation of dimethyl sulfide under different RO 2 regimes

Abstract. The atmospheric oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) represents a major natural source of atmospheric sulfate aerosols. However, there remain large uncertainties in our understanding of the underlying chemistry that governs the product distribution and sulfate yield from DMS oxidation. Here, chamber experiments were conducted to simulate gas-phase OH-initiated oxidation of DMS under a range of reaction conditions. Most importantly, the bimolecular lifetime (τbi) of the peroxy radical CH3SCH2OO was varied over several orders of magnitude, enabling the examination of the role of peroxy radical isomerization reactions on product formation. An array of analytical instruments was used to measure nearly all sulfur-containing species in the reaction mixture, and results were compared with a near-explicit chemical mechanism. When relative humidity was low, “sulfur closure” was achieved under both high-NO (τbi<0.1 s) and low-NO (τbi>10 s) conditions, though product distributions were substantially different in the two cases. Under high-NO conditions, approximately half the product sulfur was in the particle phase, as methane sulfonic acid (MSA) and sulfate, with most of the remainder as SO2 (which in the atmosphere would eventually oxidize to sulfate or be lost to deposition). Under low-NO conditions, hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HPMTF, HOOCH2SCHO), formed from CH3SCH2OO isomerization, dominates the sulfur budget over the course of the experiment, suppressing or delaying the formation of SO2 and particulate matter. The isomerization rate constant of CH3SCH2OO at 295 K is found to be 0.13±0.03 s−1, in broad agreement with other recent laboratory measurements. The rate constants for the OH oxidation of key first-generation oxidation products (HPMTF and methyl thioformate, MTF) were also determined (kOH+HPMTF=2.1×10-11 cm3 molec.−1 s−1, kOH+MTF=1.35×10-11 cm3 molec.−1 s−1). Product measurements agree reasonably well with mechanistic predictions in terms of total sulfur distribution and concentrations of most individual species, though the mechanism overpredicts sulfate and underpredicts MSA under high-NO conditions. Lastly, results from high-relative-humidity conditions suggest efficient heterogenous loss of at least some gas-phase products.

Ye, Qing (ORCID:0000000337978988)↗
DOE OSTI2025

An initial effort to study the influence of pitting in SAVY containers

As part of a broader effort to investigate a critical pit depth, below which SAVY containers fail a leak test after a drop test, surrogate testing using pristine SAVY container material was investigated. The original study involved producing pits in a SAVY wall to depths 35% to 55% of the wall thickness and subjecting the pitted container to a drop test under prototypic conditions. Subsequent leak testing after drop testing showed the container passed and that the pit size distribution and drop conditions were not sufficient to cause a leak test failure in this specific container.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards universal unfolding of detector effects in high-energy physics using denoising diffusion probabilistic models

Correcting for detector effects in experimental data, particularly through unfolding, is critical for enabling precision measurements in high-energy physics. However, traditional unfolding methods face challenges in scalability, flexibility, and dependence on simulations. We introduce a novel approach to multidimensional object-wise unfolding using conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (cDDPM). Our method utilizes the cDDPM for a non-iterative, flexible posterior sampling approach, incorporating distribution moments as conditioning information, which exhibits a strong inductive bias that allows it to generalize to unseen physics processes without explicitly assuming the underlying distribution. Our results highlight the potential of this method as a step towards a "universal" unfolding tool that reduces dependence on truth-level assumptions, while enabling the unfolding of a wide range of measured distributions with improved adaptability and accuracy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct numerical simulation of a high-pressure hydrogen micromix combustor: Flame structure and stabilisation mechanism

A high-pressure hydrogen micromix combustor has been investigated using direct numerical simulation with detailed chemistry to examine the flame structure and stabilisation mechanism. The configuration of the combustor was based on the design by Schefer et al., using numerical periodicity to mimic a large square array. A precursor simulation of an opposed jet-in-crossflow was first conducted to generate appropriate partially-premixed inflow boundary conditions for the subsequent reacting simulation. The resulting flame can be described as an predominantly-lean inhomogeneously-premixed lifted jet flame. Five main zones were identified: a jet mixing region, a core flame, a peripheral flame, a recirculation zone, and combustion products. The core flame, situated over the jet mixing region, was found to burn as a thin reaction front, responsible for over 85% of the total fuel consumption. The peripheral flame shrouded the core flame, had low mean flow with high turbulence, and burned at very lean conditions (in the distributed burning regime). It was shown that turbulent premixed flame propagation was an order-of-magnitude too slow to stabilise the flame at these conditions. Stabilisation was identified to be due to ignition events resulting from turbulent mixing of fuel from the jet into mean recirculation of very lean hot products. Ignition events were found to correlate with shear-driven Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices, and increased in likelihood with streamwise distance. At the flame base, isolated events were observed, which developed into rapidly burning flame kernels that were blown downstream. Further downstream, near-simultaneous spatially-distributed ignition events were observed, which appeared more like ignition sheets. The paper concludes with a broader discussion that considers generalising from the conditions considered here.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative Evaluation of Potassium Iodide Implementation Strategies for Emergency Preparedness and Response

This study evaluates the effectiveness of potassium iodide (KI) distribution strategies in mitigating exposure to radioiodine during severe nuclear power plant accidents. This analysis quantitatively compares various KI distribution methods (pre-distributed versus stockpiles), including scenarios with and without KI administration. The results indicate that differences in distribution strategies impact the projected thyroid dose by at least an order of magnitude. The results also indicate that the timing of KI administration is critical, as expected. For scenarios involving delayed releases of significant quantities of radionuclides, evacuation is the most effective protection strategy regardless of KI distribution method. For scenarios involving rapid releases, retrieving KI from stockpiles can have a detrimental effect. Pre-distributed KI is potentially the most effective approach when used as a supplement to evacuation and sheltering. However, these model results are based on idealized conditions for KI distribution and administration; the actual benefits of KI prophylaxis are likely to be less than estimated in this report due to many variables. The results highlight the importance of considering the cost and rigor of different distribution programs and public compliance with emergency instructions. This report includes suggested research to explore KI distribution plans for advanced reactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Attribution of heterogeneous stress distributions in low-grain polycrystals under conditions leading to damage

In high-purity polycrystalline metallic materials, voids tend to favor grain boundaries as nucleation sites due to the elevated stress states produced by granular interactions and the weakened grain boundary from the relative atomic disorder. To quantify the key factors of this elevated stress state, simple compression of a small multi-grain cylinder of body-centered cubic tantalum was simulated using a single crystal plasticity model that incorporates non-Schmid effects. Four increasingly complex synthetic microstructures were created to tractably incorporate grain boundary interactions, and a statistically significant number of combinations were performed by varying the initial crystallographic orientations of the microstructure. Most of these simulations produce the maximum von Mises stress on a grain boundary and less frequently at the multi-grain junctions. To build a statistical model for the maximum von Mises stress at the grain boundary, physically based features that could contribute to the elevated stress state were selected. Then, a learning algorithm based on information theory was used to identify which of these features contributed the most information to the data set. The identified features include a grain’s propensity to accommodate both elastic and plastic deformations and their directional components. The misalignment of the direction of each grain’s mechanical response was found to be strongly correlated to the magnitude of the stress near the grain boundary. For all of the synthetic microstructures, the statistical models produce a residual distribution that is nearly Gaussian with a variance of, at most, 10% of the prior distribution. The successful performance of the statistical model implies the correct identification of the physical features that cause severe stress localization in polycrystalline materials. The statistical models constructed here can be used to formulate a physically motivated void nucleation model which is sensitive to a microstructure’s propensity to produce elevated stress states. As a result, these statistical models also enable the design of material microstructures, in which the crystallographic orientation is chosen to resist void nucleation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Metallic Fuel Data Recovery in FIPD

The Metallic Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) [1] is an organized collection of metallic fuel test pin data (U-xPu-yZr, = 0 ~ 28; y = 2 ~ 10) and documentation available to industry. FIPD mainly contains three types of data: (1) Fuel pin fabrication data, including fuel slug diameter, fuel slug length, cladding diameter, smear density, etc. (2) Fuel pin operation conditions, including axial distributions for power, temperatures, fluences, burnup, and isotopic densities, etc. and (3) Fuel pin post-irradiation examination (PIE) data, including fission gas release and gas chemistry, profilometry, and neutron radiography, etc. The operating conditions for pins with PIE data available in FIPD span significant ranges across key parameters. The fuel peak burnup extends from less than 5% up to 20 at%. The cladding peak temperature varies from about 490°C to 660°C. Finally, the cladding peak DPA shows a wide range from less than 5 to 120. These broad ranges reflect the diverse testing conditions and operational parameters captured in the available PIE data. More detail about FIPD can be found in ref. [2]. The database development is an ongoing effort covering metallic fuel experiments from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF). As reported in the ref. [3, 4], most of the PIE data generated during the IFR program [5] has been collected, reviewed, processed, and integrated into FIPD. The most recently added PIE data can be found in ref. [4], which shows the collection of over 95% of the PIE data by the time of this paper. The recent improvements to the database are summarized in this paper.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying structural errors in cloud condensation nuclei activity from reduced representation of aerosol size distributions

Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial atmosphere. While previous studies have assessed the impact of parametric uncertainty on modeled forcing, structural errors from the numerical representation of particle distributions have not been well quantified. Here we present a framework for quantifying error in aerosol size distributions and cloud condensation nuclei activity, which we apply to the widely used 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). Box model predictions from the MAM4 are evaluated against the Particle Monte Carlo Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (PartMC-MOSAIC), a benchmark model that tracks the evolution of individual particles. We show that size distributions simulated by MAM4 diverge from those simulated by PartMC-MOSAIC after only a few hours of aging by condensation and coagulation in polluted conditions, which leads to large errors in modeled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. We find that differences between MAM4 and PartMC-MOSAIC are largest under polluted conditions, where the size distribution evolves rapidly though aging by condensation of semi-volatile substances and coagulation among particles. These findings suggest that structural error in modeled aerosol properties contributes to the large inter-model variability in aerosol radiative forcing.

Fierce, Laura M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mesoscale simulation of granular materials under weak shock compaction–pore size distribution effects

This research established a systematic method to generate various pore-size distributions (PSDs) and studied the effect of PSDs on the shock compaction response of granular materials using two-dimensional mesoscale simulations under identical porosity. Simulations utilized various PSDs for three particle shapes (circle, ellipse, and square). Contacting particle configurations using three PSDs, characterized by spatially uniform distributed pores to heterogeneous distributed pores, and non-contacting particle configurations under a single case of PSD were tested. The PSD of generated particle sets was characterized using coordination number, mean diameter, and bimodality coefficient as statistical metrics. Mesoscale simulations showed that regardless of the conditions of pore distributions, shock compaction of granular materials consistently demonstrates a precursor, shock compaction front, and end. However, the shock compaction velocity of contacting particles was dependent on the PSDs despite the constant initial porosity. The compaction velocity was faster in particle configurations with relatively uniform pore distributions than in heterogeneous pore distributions, which our study demonstrated can be attributed to particle rearrangement during compaction. Circular-shaped particles had high sensitivity in shock compaction response to the various PSDs. Furthermore, a contacting particle configuration tended to propagate the shock compaction wave relatively faster than particles that were in a non-contact configuration. This study established the relative importance of considering PSD as a metric over the coordination number in studies of the shock compaction response of granular materials. Further, insights are provided on the evolving shock substructure to characterize the shock compaction response of granular materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Joint Modeling of Wind Speed and Wind Direction Through a Conditional Approach

Atmospheric near surface wind speed and wind direction play an important role in many applications, ranging from air quality modeling, building design, wind turbine placement to climate change research. It is therefore crucial to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction. In this work, we develop a conditional approach to model these two variables, where the joint distribution is decomposed into the product of the marginal distribution of wind direction and the conditional distribution of wind speed given wind direction. To accommodate the circular nature of wind direction, a von Mises mixture model is used; the conditional wind speed distribution is modeled as a directional dependent Weibull distribution via a two-stage estimation procedure, consisting of a directional binned Weibull parameter estimation, followed by a harmonic regression to estimate the dependence of the Weibull parameters on wind direction. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicates that our method outperforms two other approaches in estimation efficiency: one that utilizes periodic spline quantile regression and another that generates data from the commonly used Abe-Ley distribution for cylindrical data. We illustrate our method by using the output from a regional climate model to investigate how the joint distribution of wind speed and direction may change under some future climate scenarios. Our method indicates significant changes in the variation of wind speed with respect to some directions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Coaxial Cable Sensors for In-Situ Condition Based Monitoring of Coal-Fired Boiler Tubes

The increasing contributions of renewable energy sources present new challenges to the operation and maintenance of the existing coal-fired power plants. One of the major operational risks is the unexpected failure of superheater boiler tubes, leading to the most unplanned power plant outrages. The boiler tube failure is difficult to predict due to the harsh operating environments. Therefore, condition-based monitoring (CBM) with a reliable high temperature sensor becomes necessary to produce a meaningful assessment of the health condition of boiler tubes and their remaining lifetime. In this work, the stainless-steel and quartz coaxial cable sensor (SSQ-CCS) is proposed for in-situ distributed monitoring of the boiler tube temperatures in existing coal-fired power plants. Comprehensive tests have been conducted with an in-house testing facility at Clemson University to study and evaluate the sensors’ performance in the temperature range of 100℃ to 600℃. The results indicated that the measurement resolution of the SSQ-CCS sensor is better than 1℃, and the drift is less than 2% over long-period testing. Meanwhile, multi-physics finite element analysis has been conducted to optimize the design and evaluate the safety of the SSQ-CCS temperature sensor under various operational conditions. Based on the performance obtained in the laboratory-scale testing, a field test has been implemented at a power plant. Four SSQ-CCS temperature sensors were installed for in-situ monitoring of the temperatures of a power plant’s superheat tube assembles. The data acquisition system has been successfully set up and collected sensing signals for more than three months. The sensing signals have been post-processed, and the monitored temperature history through the SSQ-CCS temperature sensor has been validated and compared with the conventional high temperature thermal couple data.

Jiao, Xinyu↗
DOE OSTI2023

The colliding planar shocks platform to study warm dense matter at the National Ignition Facility

We have developed an experimental platform at the National Ignition Facility that employs colliding planar shocks to produce warm dense matter with uniform conditions and enable high-precision equation of state measurements. The platform uses simultaneous x-ray Thomson scattering and x-ray radiography to measure the density, electron temperature, and ionization state in warm dense matter. The experimental platform is designed to create a large volume of uniform plasma (approximately 700×700×150μm 3 ) at pressures approaching 100 Mbar and minimize the distribution of plasma conditions in the x-ray scattering volume, significantly improving the precision of the measurements. Here, in this study, we present the experimental design of the platform and compare hydrodynamic simulations to x-ray radiography data from initial experiments studying hydrocarbons, producing uniform densities within ±25% of the average probed condition. We show that the platform creates a homogeneous plasma that can be characterized using x-ray Thomson scattering. Thus, the new platform enables accurate measurements of plasma conditions necessary to test models for the equation of state and ionization potential depression in the warm dense matter regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermomechanical Stress and Creep-Fatigue Analysis of a High-Temperature Prototype Receiver for Heating Particles

This work presents a three-dimensional (3D) thermomechanical model of a prototype-scale enclosed light trapping solar receiver for heating particles. Results of the thermoelastic model are used to estimate receiver lifetime under maximum flux conditions. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is first developed to predict the temperature fields in a multi-panel assembly under steady operating conditions. Solar flux distributions on the receiver are obtained from the software package SolTrace and applied to the 3D thermal model. The subsequent particle heating is captured through a simplified 1D energy balance. Panel reradiation is considered through a surface-to-surface radiation model and natural convection loss to the surrounding air is captured in a representative fluid domain surrounding the receiver. The resulting temperature fields from the CFD analysis are used as inputs for a thermoelastic mechanical model with representative boundary conditions. With the resultant temperature and stress fields, a creep-fatigue damage and lifetime analysis is performed using the linear damage accumulation (LDA) theory. The Manson-Coffin formula and Larson Miller correlation are used to calculate the fatigue and creep, respectively. A maximum damage (corresponding to a 30-year service life) is defined for design assessment. The model was first developed and verified in detail by comparing with published results in the literature (temperature and stress profiles and distributions, and creep/fatigue damage fractions) for tubular solar receivers with supercritical carbon dioxide as the working fluid. It was then implemented to model a planar-cavity receiver with various design parameters. Specifically, three different design geometries are considered, and the results show that a maximum temperature of approximately 1200 K could be reached for each design with the given incident solar flux, with the main difference being the distribution of these temperatures. Preliminary resulting stresses for the small-scale prototype without design optimization vary from 20 MPa to 250 MPa for each design, with the maximum stresses occurring on the front face and concave geometry on the side of the panel. In future work, the developed methodology shown here will be applied to analyze a full-scale (50-150 MWth) receiver.

concentrated solar power↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Modeling of Nanoparticle Precipitation in Oxide Dispersion-Strengthened Steels Produced by Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) enables the efficient production of near-net-shape oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) alloys, which possess superior mechanical properties due to oxide nanoparticles (e.g., yttrium oxide, Y-O, and yttrium-titanium oxide, Y-Ti-O) embedded in the alloy matrix. To better understand the precipitation mechanisms of the oxide nanoparticles and predict their size distribution under LPBF conditions, we developed an innovative physics-based multiscale modeling strategy that incorporates multiple computational approaches. These include a finite volume method model (Flow3D) to analyze the temperature field and cooling rate of the melt pool during the LPBF process, a density functional theory model to calculate the binding energy of Y-O particles and the temperature-dependent diffusivities of Y and O in molten 316L stainless steel (SS), and a cluster dynamics model to evaluate the kinetic evolution and size distribution of Y-O nanoparticles in as-fabricated 316L SS ODS alloys. The model-predicted particle sizes exhibit good agreement with experimental measurements across various LPBF process parameters, i.e., laser power (110–220 W) and scanning speed (150–900 mm/s), demonstrating the reliability and predictive power of the modeling approach. The multiscale approach can be used to guide the future design of experimental process parameters to control oxide nanoparticle characteristics in LPBF-manufactured ODS alloys. Additionally, our approach introduces a novel strategy for understanding and modeling the thermodynamics and kinetics of precipitation in high-temperature systems, particularly molten alloys.

Wang, Zhengming (ORCID:0000000241627112)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗