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At least 73 records · Page 4

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Life-cycle cost-benefit analysis of a novel self-heating pavement made from coal-derived solid carbon

Winter weather events challenge the safety, efficiency, and sustainability of roadway networks, particularly road bridges vulnerable to climate impacts. Although effective, conventional de-icing methods incur high expenses and cause significant environmental contamination. To address these longstanding issues, a low-cost novel coal-derived carbon enabled smart pavement (CDC-SP) de-icing system was developed, aiming to alleviate traffic delays, severe corrosion, compromised safety, and environmental pollution. However, the economic performance of CDC-SP has not been quantified to guide decision-making. To this end, this paper presents a Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis (LCCBA) to assess the economic feasibility of the CDC-SP de-icing system for road bridges in five representative urban and rural areas across cool humid and cold humid climate zones. Given the variations and uncertainties of several factors that determine the costs and benefits, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the system’s economic reliability. Additionally, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was performed to quantify the impacts of important factors and identify the most beneficial scenarios. Furthermore, the CDC-SP de-icing systems have demonstrated substantial economic benefits and short payback periods, showing great applicability for rural and urban road bridges with different service levels across multiple climate zones as compared to conventional de-icing methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Hadoop for High-Performance Climate Analytics: Use Cases and Lessons Learned

Scientific data services are a critical aspect of the NASA Center for Climate Simulations mission (NCCS). Hadoop, via MapReduce, provides an approach to high-performance analytics that is proving to be useful to data intensive problems in climate research. It offers an analysis paradigm that uses clusters of computers and combines distributed storage of large data sets with parallel computation. The NCCS is particularly interested in the potential of Hadoop to speed up basic operations common to a wide range of analyses. In order to evaluate this potential, we prototyped a series of canonical MapReduce operations over a test suite of observational and climate simulation datasets. The initial focus was on averaging operations over arbitrary spatial and temporal extents within Modern Era Retrospective- Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data. After preliminary results suggested that this approach improves efficiencies within data intensive analytic workflows, we invested in building a cyber infrastructure resource for developing a new generation of climate data analysis capabilities using Hadoop. This resource is focused on reducing the time spent in the preparation of reanalysis data used in data-model inter-comparison, a long sought goal of the climate community. This paper summarizes the related use cases and lessons learned.

analytics

An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure, and support national and international climate assessments. Generations of CMIP have evolved through extensive community engagement from punctuated phasing into more continuous support for the design of experimental protocols, infrastructure for data publication and access, and public delivery of climate information. We identify four fundamental research questions motivating a seventh phase of coupled model intercomparison relating to patterns of sea surface temperature change, changing weather, the water–carbon–climate nexus, and tipping points. Key CMIP7 advances include an expansion of baseline experiments, a focus on CO 2 -emissions-driven experiments, sustained support for community MIPs, periodic updating of historical forcings and diagnostics requests, and a collection of prioritized experiments, or the “Assessment Fast Track”, drawn from community MIPs to support climate research, assessment, and service goals across prediction and projection, characterization, attribution, and process understanding.

Environmental sciences

Pre- and post-coppice production and biomass chemistry of eastern cottonwood and hybrid poplars in the southeastern US

Sustainably grown feedstocks for bioenergy and bioproducts are important tools to fight climate change, provide ecosystem services, and sequester carbon. Populus species including hybrid poplars have been utilized around the world, and in the southeastern US native eastern cottonwood (P. deltoides) is often favored due to its resistance to stem cankers. However, P. deltoides has historically been grown in single stem production and its relative performance in short rotation coppice production, prevalent in Europe, is not well documented. Therefore, this study's goals were to evaluate eastern cottonwood (D × D) and hybrid poplar (P. deltoides × P. maximowiczii (D × M) and P. deltoides × P. trichocarpa (D × T) taxa) productivity under a two-year establishment and two-year coppice cycle, analyze biomass chemistry properties, identify drivers of productivity, and select clones suited for marginal vs. optimal sites. We found that D × M and D × D grew best in both establishment and coppice rotation with production increasing after coppice. Taxa and clones exhibited few differences in select biomass chemistry properties despite differences in growth rate and stem size. Across years and sites, production was correlated with the soil's carbon to nitrogen ratio, percentage of sand, and shrink-swell potential of the soil. A D × M clone ‘9709’ tended to perform better than other tested clones on marginal sites and had the highest survival rate after four years. Overall, this research suggests that Populus species can be grown in coppice rotation in the southeastern US with the potential for hybrid poplars to be successful on certain sites in the region although longer term studies are necessary to confirm these results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Historical Land Management Alters New Soil Carbon Inputs by Annual and Perennial Bioenergy Crops

Bioenergy and bioproduct markets are expanding to meet demand for climate-friendly goods and services. Perennial biomass crops are particularly well suited for this goal because of their high yields, low input requirements, and potential to increase soil carbon (C). However, it is unclear how much C is allocated into belowground pools by perennial bioenergy crops and whether the belowground benefits vary with nitrogen (N) fertilizer inputs. Using in situ 13 C pulse-chase labeling, we tested whether the sterile perennial grass Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) or annual maize transfers more photosynthetic C to belowground pools. The experiment took place at two sites in Central and Northwest (NW) Iowa with different management histories and two nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates (0 and 224 kg N ha −1 year −1 ) to determine if the fate of plant-derived soil C depends on soil fertility and crop type (perennial or annual). Maize allocated a greater percentage of total new 13 C to roots than miscanthus, but miscanthus had greater new 13 C in total and belowground plant biomass. We found strong interactions between site and most soil measurements—including new 13 C in mineral and particulate soil organic matter (SOM) pools—which appears to be driven by differences in historical fertilizer management. The NW Iowa site, with a history of manure inputs, had greater plant-available nutrients (phosphorus, potassium, and ammonium) in soils, and resulted in less 13 C from miscanthus in SOM pools compared to maize (approximately 64% less in POM and 70% less in MAOM). In more nutrient-limited soils (Central site), miscanthus transferred 4.5 times more 13 C than maize to the more stable mineral-associated SOM pool. Our results suggest that past management, including historical manure inputs that affect a site's soil fertility, can influence the net C benefits of bioenergy crops.

13C

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-GL1 Stannard Rock

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Stannard Rock is located 39 km from the nearest shore (Keweenaw Peninsula) in Lake Superior, 44 miles NNE of Marquette, Michigan, and 24 miles ESE of Manitou Island. The site is located on the historic Stannard Rock Lighthouse, which was completed in 1882. Eddy covariance instrumentation was installed in 2008 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada, eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community. The eddy covariance station along with other ancillary meteorological instrumentation is located at an approximate elevation of 39.2 meters above mean lake water level. Meteorological data from the lighthouse are sent to the National Data Buoy Center, where they can be viewed in real-time at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=stdm4 Uncorrected half-hour fluxes were computed directly on the logger using a 30-minute block averaging period as high-frequency data were not available. The half hour flux measurements downloaded from the datalogger were post-processed with the following filters and corrections. Latent and sensible heat and carbon dioxide fluxes were corrected with 2-D coordinate rotation. Although the primary objective of data collection at Stannard Rock was to quantify the evaporative flux, additional preliminary measurements of the carbon dioxide concentration and flux from the LI-7500 are also included in this dataset but it is advised to use the carbon data with caution. Carbon data reported in this dataset includes turbulent fluxes of CO2 with no storage correction (FC, µmol m-2 s-1) and CO2 density in mole fraction of wet air (CO2), which was originally output on the datalogger as average CO2 density (mg m-2 s-1) and converted into µmol mol-1 using air temperature and pressure in post-processing. Webb, Pearman, and Leuning terms were applied to account for density fluctuations for water vapor and CO2. Sonic path length, high-frequency attenuation and sensor separation were accounted for according to Horst and Massman, and the oxygen absorption correction for the KH2O hygrometer was also applied. Latent and sensible heat fluxes were assumed to be unrealistic above an absolute value of 1000 W m-2 and were removed. Both carbon flux (FC) and carbon dioxide mole fraction in wet air (CO2) and were assumed to be unrealistic above 1000 µmol m-2 s-1 and 1000 µmol mol-1 respectively. Spikes in latent and sensible heat and carbon fluxes and densities (often due to periods of precipitation) were identified by computing the mean and standard deviation over a moving, overlapping window of 336 half-hours (7 days), similar to Shao et al., and were removed when the flux was more than 1.5 standard deviations from the moving window’s mean. While Vickers and Mahrt use a threshold of 3.5 standard deviations from the mean, a conservative value of 1.5 was chosen due to the noisy nature of over-lake data at this particular site. This process was repeated twice for latent and sensible heat, and carbon dioxide fluxes and densities and therefore it is possible that some real, realistic data was filtered out in this process. No detrending was performed. As per AmeriFlux standards, no friction velocity (USTAR, m s-1) filtering was performed.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana

AmeriFlux CA-GL3 Long Point

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL3 Long Point. Site Description - Long Point Lighthouse is located at the end of Long Point on Lake Erie. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, completed in 1916, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2012 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana

AmeriFlux CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-GL4 Nine Mile Lighthouse. Site Description - Nine Mile Lighthouse is located at the south end of Simcoe Island on Lake Ontario. The eddy covariance instrumentation is located on the historic lighthouse, built in 1833, and instrumented with eddy covariance data in 2016 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada (eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN)). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana

Historical land management alters new soil carbon inputs by annual and perennial bioenergy crops

Bioenergy and bioproduct markets are expanding to meet demand for climate friendly goods and services. Perennial biomass crops are particularly well suited for this goal because of their high yields, low input requirements, and potential to increase soil carbon (C). However, it is unclear how much C is allocated into belowground pools by perennial bioenergy crops and whether the belowground benefits vary with nitrogen (N) fertilizer inputs. Using in situ 13C pulse-chase labeling, we tested whether the sterile perennial grass Miscanthus × giganteus ( miscanthus ) or annual maize transfers more photosynthetic C to belowground pools. The experiment took place at two sites in Central and Northwest (NW) Iowa with different management histories and two nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates (0 and 224 kg N ha-1 yr-1) to determine if the fate of plant-derived soil C depends on soil fertility and crop type (perennial or annual). Maize allocated a greater percentage of total new 13C to roots than miscanthus, but miscanthus had greater new 13C in total and belowground plant biomass. We found strong interactions between site and most soil measurements – including new 13C in mineral and particulate soil organic matter (SOM) pools –which appear to be driven by differences in historical fertilizer management. The NW Iowa site, with a history of manure inputs, had greater plant-available nutrients (phosphorus, potassium, and ammonium) in soils, and resulted in less 13C from miscanthus in SOM pools compared to maize (approximately 64% less in POM and 70% less in MAOM). In more nutrient-limited soils (Central site), miscanthus transferred 4.5 times more 13C than maize to the more stable mineral-associated SOM pool. Our results suggest that past management, including historical manure inputs that affect a site’s soil fertility, can influence the net C benefits of bioenergy crops.

Keiser, Ashley [Stockbridge School of Agriculture,

National Climate Program: Early achievements and future directions

Activities of the National Climate Program since 1978 are reviewed, and outlines new directions which should be emphasized over the next five years or so. These are discussed under the subentities of climate system research; climate impacts; and climatic data, information, and services.

Source record

MCTP Summer Research Internship Program. Research Presentation Day: Experience Mathematics and Science in the Real World

This paper presents the summaries of the MCTP Summer Research Internship Program. Technological areas discussed include: Mathematical curriculum development for real world problems; Rain effects on air-water gas exchange; multi-ring impact basins on mars; developing an interactive multimedia educational cd-rom on remote sensing; a pilot of an activity for for the globe program; fossils in maryland; developing children's programming for the american horticultural society at river farm; children's learning, educational programs of the national park service; a study of climate and student satisfaction in two summer programs for disadvantaged students interested in careers in mathematics and science; the maryland governor's academy, integrating technology into the classroom; stream sampling with the maryland biological stream survey (MBSS); the imaging system inspection software technology, the preparation and detection of nominal and faulted steel ingots; event-based science, the development of real-world science units; correlation between anxiety and past experiences; environmental education through summer nature camp; enhancing learning opportunities at the Salisbury zoo; plant growth experiment, a module for the middle school classroom; the effects of proxisome proliferators in Japanese medaka embryos; development of a chapter on birth control and contraceptive methodologies as part of an interactive computer-based education module on hiv and aids; excretion of gentamicin in toadfish and goldfish; the renaissance summer program; and Are field trips important to the regional math science center?

Source record

Online Visualization and Value Added Services of MERRA-2 Data at GES DISC

NASA climate reanalysis datasets from MERRA-2, distributed at the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), have been used in broad research areas, such as climate variations, extreme weather, agriculture, renewable energy, and air quality, etc. The datasets contain numerous variables for atmosphere, land, and ocean, grouped into 95 products. The total archived volume is approximately 337 TB ( approximately 562K files) at the end of October 2017. Due to the large number of products and files, and large data volumes, it may be a challenge for a user to find and download the data of interest. The support team at GES DISC, working closely with the MERRA-2 science team, has created and is continuing to work on value added data services to best meet the needs of a broad user community. This presentation, using aerosol over Asia Monsoon as an example, provides an overview of the MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC, including: How to find the data? How many data access methods are provided? What are the best data access methods for me? How do download the subsetted (parameter, spatial, temporal) data and save in preferred spatial resolution and data format? How to visualize and explore the data online? In addition, we introduce a future online analytic tool designed for supporting application research, focusing on long-term hourly time-series data access and analysis.

Shen, Suhung

Addressing and Presenting Quality of Satellite Data via Web-Based Services

With the recent attention to climate change and proliferation of remote-sensing data utilization, climate model and various environmental monitoring and protection applications have begun to increasingly rely on satellite measurements. Research application users seek good quality satellite data, with uncertainties and biases provided for each data point. However, different communities address remote sensing quality issues rather inconsistently and differently. We describe our attempt to systematically characterize, capture, and provision quality and uncertainty information as it applies to the NASA MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth data product. In particular, we note the semantic differences in quality/bias/uncertainty at the pixel, granule, product, and record levels. We outline various factors contributing to uncertainty or error budget; errors. Web-based science analysis and processing tools allow users to access, analyze, and generate visualizations of data while alleviating users from having directly managing complex data processing operations. These tools provide value by streamlining the data analysis process, but usually shield users from details of the data processing steps, algorithm assumptions, caveats, etc. Correct interpretation of the final analysis requires user understanding of how data has been generated and processed and what potential biases, anomalies, or errors may have been introduced. By providing services that leverage data lineage provenance and domain-expertise, expert systems can be built to aid the user in understanding data sources, processing, and the suitability for use of products generated by the tools. We describe our experiences developing a semantic, provenance-aware, expert-knowledge advisory system applied to NASA Giovanni web-based Earth science data analysis tool as part of the ESTO AIST-funded Multi-sensor Data Synergy Advisor project.

Leptoukh, Gregory

Proceedings of the Ocean Climate Data Workshop

The First Consultative Meeting on Responsible National Oceanographic Data Centres (RNODC's) and Climate DataServices met in February 1988 and made a number of recommendations related to improving services to meet the needs of climate programmes. Included in these discussions was a recommendation for a Workshop on Ocean Climate Data Management. This workshop will be talking about ways to establish a Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS).

Churgin, James

New Earth Science Data and Access Methods

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, working with its domestic and international partners, provides scientific data and analysis to improve life here on Earth. NASA provides science data products that cover a wide range of physical, geophysical, biochemical and other parameters, as well as services for interdisciplinary Earth science studies. Management and distribution of these products is administered through the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), which all hold data within a different Earth science discipline. This paper will highlight selected EOS datasets and will focus on how these observations contribute to the improvement of essential services such as weather forecasting, climate prediction, air quality, and agricultural efficiency. Emphasis will be placed on new data products derived from instruments on board Terra, Aqua and ICESat as well as new regional data products and field campaigns. A variety of data tools and services are available to the user community. This paper will introduce primary and specialized DAAC-specific methods for finding, ordering and using these data products. Special sections will focus on orienting users unfamiliar with DAAC resources, HDF-EOS formatted data and the use of desktop research and application tools.

Moses, John F.