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At least 73 records · Page 4

Models of climate cycles recorded in Martian polar layered deposits

Mars polar deposit accumulation models are used to predict the sequences of layer thicknesses. Continuous deposition and climate-modulated deposition models are compared, and two physical models of the latter type are developed in detail. In addition to examining the sensitivity of the sequence of layer thicknesses to model type and threshold, parallels with terrestrial ocean margin deposition are drawn with a view to better understanding the effects of a prolonged interval of nondeposition on stratigraphy and the modification of the central polar stratigraphy by scarp margin effects. When the threshold for deposition lies in the midrange with respect to excursions of the climate function, deposition occurs about half of the time, and there is only a slight modulation of the layer thickness. When the threshold for deposition is high, deposition occurs only a small fraction of the total time, and groups of layers form which are separated from other groups by long periods of nondeposition.

Cutts, J. A.↗

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modem measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, x-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modem measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or Space Climate. The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 plus or minus 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5 ) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period, 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 1.45 plus or minus 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 plus or minus 30 in 2023.

Hathaway, David H.↗

The geologic record of climatic change

Major results from paleoclimatic investigations are investigated, and background material is included. The time interval surveyed extends from the formation of the Earth 4.6 billion years ago to the development of the instrumental record.

Crowley, T. J.↗

The geologic record of climatic change

Major results from paleoclimatic investigations are investigated, and background material is included. The time interval surveyed extends from the formation of the earth 4.6 billion years ago to the development of the instrumental record. Previously announced in STAR as N82-33946

Crowley, T. J.↗

A Multi-Sensor Water Vapor, Temperature and Cloud Climate Data Record: Status of Our MEaSUREs 2012 Project

- Our primary objectives: Incorporate all A-Train water vapor, including small-scale, horizontal and vertical water vapor structure from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and GPS (Global Positioning System); Use MODIS cloud classification that is collocated at the pixel-scale over the full AIRS/AMSU (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) swath; Extend summaries to PDFs (Probability Distribution Functions)/higher order moments of water vapor sorted by cloud classes; Establish robust, scale-dependent statistical relationships between cloud, temperature, and water vapor PDFs for the climate modeling community. - We will also: Update our current data record to new CloudSat/CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) cloud classification; Provide merged AIRS and MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) water vapor profiles using averaging kernels; Include temperature and water vapor from models (ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and re-analyses (MERRA - Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications); Classify METOP-A (Meteorological Operational Satellite-A) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellite water vapor with AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) during SNOs (Solar Neutrino Oscillations); Compare with the NVAP-M (re-analysis and extension of the NASA Water Vapor Project (NVAP)) water vapor climatologies; Use existing data sources and mature algorithms, and document processing algorithms.

Fetzer, Eric↗

Combining Satellite and in Situ Data with Models to Support Climate Data Records in Ocean Biology

The satellite ocean color data record spans multiple decades and, like most long-term satellite observations of the Earth, comes from many sensors. Unfortunately, global and regional chlorophyll estimates from the overlapping missions show substantial biases, limiting their use in combination to construct consistent data records. SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua differed by 13% globally in overlapping time segments, 2003-2007. For perspective, the maximum change in annual means over the entire Sea WiFS mission era was about 3%, and this included an El NinoLa Nina transition. These discrepancies lead to different estimates of trends depending upon whether one uses SeaWiFS alone for the 1998-2007 (no significant change), or whether MODIS is substituted for the 2003-2007 period (18% decline, P less than 0.05). Understanding the effects of climate change on the global oceans is difficult if different satellite data sets cannot be brought into conformity. The differences arise from two causes: 1) different sensors see chlorophyll differently, and 2) different sensors see different chlorophyll. In the first case, differences in sensor band locations, bandwidths, sensitivity, and time of observation lead to different estimates of chlorophyll even from the same location and day. In the second, differences in orbit and sensitivities to aerosols lead to sampling differences. A new approach to ocean color using in situ data from the public archives forces different satellite data to agree to within interannual variability. The global difference between Sea WiFS and MODIS is 0.6% for 2003-2007 using this approach. It also produces a trend using the combination of SeaWiFS and MODIS that agrees with SeaWiFS alone for 1998-2007. This is a major step to reducing errors produced by the first cause, sensor-related discrepancies. For differences that arise from sampling, data assimilation is applied. The underlying geographically complete fields derived from a free-running model is unaffected by solar zenith angle requirements and obscuration from clouds and aerosols. Combined with in situ dataenhanced satellite data, the model is forced into consistency using data assimilation. This approach eliminates sampling discrepancies from satellites. Combining the reduced differences of satellite data sets using in situ data, and the removal of sampling biases using data assimilation, we generate consistent data records of ocean color. These data records can support investigations of long-term effects of climate change on ocean biology over multiple satellites, and can improve the consistency of future satellite data sets.

Gregg, Watson↗

Achieving Global Ocean Color Climate Data Records

Ocean color, or the spectral distribution of visible light upwelling from beneath the ocean surface, carries information on the composition and concentration of biological constituents within the water column. The CZCS mission in 1978 demonstrated that quantitative ocean color measurements could be. made from spaceborne sensors, given sufficient corrections for atmospheric effects and a rigorous calibration and validation program. The launch of SeaWiFS in 1997 represents the beginning of NASA's ongoing efforts to develop a continuous ocean color data record with sufficient coverage and fidelity for global change research. Achievements in establishing and maintaining the consistency of the time-series through multiple missions and varying instrument designs will be highlighted in this talk, including measurements from NASA'S MODIS instruments currently flying on the Terra and Aqua platforms, as well as the MERIS sensor flown by ESA and the OCM-2 sensor recently launched by ISRO.

Franz, Bryan↗

Assessment of Current Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Estimates Based on the TOPEX/Poseidon Jason-1 and 2 Climate Data Record

Recent developments in Precise Orbit Determinations (POD) due to in particular to revisions to the terrestrial reference frame realization and the time variable gravity (TVG) continues to provide improvements to the accuracy and stability of the PO directly affecting mean sea level (MSL) estimates. Long-term credible MSL estimates require the development and continued maintenance of a stable reference frame, along with vigilant monitoring of the performance of the independent tracking systems used to calculate the orbits for altimeter spacecrafts. The stringent MSL accuracy requirements of a few tenths of an mm/yr are particularly essential for mass budget closure analysis over the relative short time period of Jason-l &2, GRACE, and Argo coincident measurements. In an effort to adhere to cross mission consistency, we have generated a full time series of experimental orbits (GSFC stdlllO) for TOPEX/Poseidon (TP), Jason-I, and OSTM based on an improved terrestrial reference frame (TRF) realization (ITRF2008), revised static (GGM03s), and time variable gravity field (Eigen6s). In this presentation we assess the impact of the revised precision orbits on inter-mission bias estimates, and resultant global and regional MSL trends. Tide gauge verification results are shown to assess the current stability of the Jason-2 sea surface height time series that suggests a possible discontinuity initiated in early 2010. Although the Jason-2 time series is relatively short (approximately 3 years), a thorough review of the entire suite of geophysical and environmental range corrections is warranted and is underway to maintain the fidelity of the record.

Beckley, B. D.↗

Expected Performance of Ozone Climate Data Records from Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler

The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS/LP) was launched on board of the Soumi NPP space platform in late October 2011. It provides ozone-profiling capability with high-vertical resolution from 60 Ian to cloud top. In this study, an end-to-end Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) of OMPS/LP ozone is discussed. The OSSE was developed at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. The "truth" for this OSSE is built by assimilating MLS profiles and OMI ozone columns, which is known to produce realistic three-dimensional ozone fields in the stratosphere and upper troposphere. OMPS/LP radiances were computed at tangent points computed by an appropriate orbital model. The OMPS/LP forward RT model, Instrument Models (IMs) and EDR retrieval model were introduced and pseudo-observations derived. The resultant synthetic OMPS/LP observations were evaluated against the "truth" and subsequently these observations were assimilated into GEOS-5. Comparison of this assimilated dataset with the "truth" enables comparisons of the likely uncertainties in 3-D analyses of OMPS/LP data. This study demonstrated the assimilation capabilities of OMPS/LP ozone in GEOS-5, with the monthly, zonal mean (O-A) smaller than 0.02ppmv at all levels, the nns(O-A) close to O.lppmv from 100hPa to 0.2hPa; and the mean(O-B) around the 0.02ppmv for all levels. The monthly zonal mean analysis generally agrees to within 2% of the truth, with larger differences of 2-4% (0.1-0.2ppmv) around 10hPa close to North Pole and in the tropical tropopause region, where the difference is above 20% due to the very low ozone concentrations. These OSSEs demonstrated that, within a single data assimilation system and the assumption that assimilated MLS observations provide a true rendition of the stratosphere, the OMPS/LP ozone data are likely to produce accurate analyses through much of the stratosphere. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the importance of the extremely high vertical resolution of the OMPS/LP ozone data

Xu, P. Q.↗