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At least 73 records · Page 4

An A-Train Climatology of Extratropical Cyclone Clouds

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the main purveyors of precipitation in the mid-latitudes, especially in winter, and have a significant radiative impact through the clouds they generate. However, general circulation models (GCMs) have trouble representing precipitation and clouds in ETCs, and this might partly explain why current GCMs disagree on to the evolution of these systems in a warming climate. Collectively, the A-train observations of MODIS, CloudSat, CALIPSO, AIRS and AMSR-E have given us a unique perspective on ETCs: over the past 10 years these observations have allowed us to construct a climatology of clouds and precipitation associated with these storms. This has proved very useful for model evaluation as well in studies aimed at improving understanding of moist processes in these dynamically active conditions. Using the A-train observational suite and an objective cyclone and front identification algorithm we have constructed cyclone centric datasets that consist of an observation-based characterization of clouds and precipitation in ETCs and their sensitivity to large scale environments. In this presentation, we will summarize the advances in our knowledge of the climatological properties of cloud and precipitation in ETCs acquired with this unique dataset. In particular, we will present what we have learned about southern ocean ETCs, for which the A-train observations have filled a gap in this data sparse region. In addition, CloudSat and CALIPSO have for the first time provided information on the vertical distribution of clouds in ETCs and across warm and cold fronts. We will also discuss how these observations have helped identify key areas for improvement in moist processes in recent GCMs. Recently, we have begun to explore the interaction between aerosol and cloud cover in ETCs using MODIS, CloudSat and CALIPSO. We will show how aerosols are climatologically distributed within northern hemisphere ETCs, and how this relates to cloud cover.

clouds↗

A Moments View of Climatology and Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

A comprehensive investigation of the climatology of and interannual variability and trends in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) is presented, based on a novel area and moments analysis. Moments include centroid location, aspect ratio, angle, and “excess kurtosis” (measuring how far the shape is from elliptical) for an equivalent ellipse with the same area as the ASMA. Key results are robust among the three modern reanalyses studied. The climatological ASMA is nearly elliptical, with its major axis aligned along its centroid latitude and a typical aspect ratio of ∼5–8. The ASMA centroid shifts northward with height, northward and westward during development, and in the opposite direction as it weakens. New evidence finding no obvious climatological bimodality in the ASMA reinforces similar suggestions from previous studies using modern reanalyses. Most trends in ASMA moments are not statistically significant. ASMA area and duration, however, increased significantly during 1979–2018; the 1958–2018 record analyzed for one reanalysis suggests that these trends may have accelerated in recent decades. ASMA centroid latitude is significantly positively (negatively) correlated with subtropical jet core latitude (altitude), and significantly negatively correlated with concurrent ENSO; these results are consistent with and extend previous work relating monsoon intensity, ENSO, and jet shifts. ASMA area is significantly positively correlated with the MEI ENSO index two months previously. These results improve our understanding of the ASMA using consistently defined diagnostics of its size, geometry, interannual variability, and trends that have not previously been analyzed.

Anticyclone↗

Toward The Development of Hailstorm Climatologies Derived From Reanalyses and Infared/Passive Microwave Satellite Imagers

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat series, provide both historical and near-real-time observations of cloud top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to United States Next Generation Weather Radar- (NEXRAD-) estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are specifically designed to make hail likelihood distinctions based on satellite-indicated points of deep convection within environments favorable for storm development. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. This presentation demonstrates that statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between non-severe/severe hailstorm classes for predictors including overshooting cloud top temperature and area characteristics, convective available potential energy, vertical wind shear, 500 hPa temperature, mid-level lapse rate, precipitable water, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a hail likelihood metric with a critical success index of 0.504 and Heidke skill score of 0.403, which is exceptional among recent analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to select case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-year GOES-12/13 image database to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the Central Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied. Opportunities for training and applying DNN-based hailstorm predictions to recently developed GOES-8/10/12/13/16 and Meteosat Second Generation convective storm detection and characterization climatologies over South America and South Africa, respectively, will also be presented.

Kristopher Bedka↗

Towards a Combined Low-Earth Orbit Lightning Climatology: Current Work and Assessing South Atlantic Anomaly Influence

This presentation discusses the current status and ongoing work towards a low-Earth orbit (LEO) lightning climatological product that includes both Lightning Imaging Sensors (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD). The project builds upon the work by Cecil et al. (2014) to include the LIS on the International Space Station (ISS), featuring additional inter-instrumental comparisons to more accurately depict the unique capabilities of each instrument. A closer examination of the interference from the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) was also conducted on all three LEO sensors. The SAA is a region of the magnetosphere roughly spanning the south-central Atlantic wherein the inner Van Allen radiation belts are closer to Earth than anywhere else, subjecting spacecraft in LEO to significantly higher radiation flux levels. This radiation can produce interference with the LIS and OTD instruments, manifesting as non-lightning luminous events. While these events can be identified easily enough, they can occur in such quantities that they overwhelm the sensors’ processors and effectively ‘blind’ them. This is called the First-In First-Out (FIFO) buffer overflow, and this blinded time reduced the instruments’ view-time as a result. The FIFO overflow and view-time can reliably be used to track the SAA interference (Clark et al. 2024), which allows for the lightning counts attributable to the SAA to be assessed. The impact that the SAA had on the quality of observations from the LEO lightning instrumentation and the significance for the resulting climatological products was investigated. Substantial areas of interference were identified for all three instruments using the view-time and quality flags, each with a unique shape and temporal evolution. The temporal evolution and general region affected are of particular importance when constructing a climatological product, as there are notable reductions to view-time over prolonged periods across a lightning-rich region. However, a temporal element also makes isolating the subsequent impact on the lightning signal significantly more challenging. Lightning counts in this region are highly seasonal and exhibit inter-annual variability, which is compounded by the nature of LEO observations. This study includes preliminary analysis of the impact that the SAA has on the lightning counts given the notable impact shown in the metadata.

Austin G Clark↗

Relationship Between Tropical Cloud Feedback and Climatological Bias in Clouds

Abstract Global climate model (GCM) projections of future climate are uncertain largely due to a persistent spread in cloud feedback. This is despite efforts to reduce this model uncertainty through a variety of emergent constraints (ECs); with several studies suggesting an important role for present‐day biases in clouds. Here, we use three generations of GCMs to assess the value of climatological cloud metrics for constraining uncertainty in cloud feedback. We find that shortwave cloud radiative properties across the Southern Hemisphere extratropics are most robustly correlated with tropical cloud feedback (TCF). Using this relationship in conjunction with observations, we produce an EC that yields a TCF value of 0.52 ± 0.34 W/m 2 /K, which equates to a 34% reduction in uncertainty. Thus, we show that climatological cloud properties can be used to reduce uncertainty in how clouds will respond to future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗

A Brief History of Space Climatology: From the Big Bang to the Present

This work presents a space climatology timeline ranging from the Big Bang to the present. It begins with a description of the early universe including the origin and abundances of particles significant for radiation effects. It continues to a transition period to modern times when the era of modern space climatology began to emerge due to discoveries of sunspots and the solar activity cycle, along with development of early astronomical methods. The timeline concludes in the modern era with a description of the radiation environments of galactic cosmic rays, solar particle events and the Van Allen Belts.

Galactic Cosmic Rays↗

A Brief History of Space Climatology: From the Big Bang to the Present

This work presents a space climatology timeline ranging from the Big Bang to the present. It began with a description of the early universe including the origin and abundances of particles significant for radiation effects. It continued to a transition period to modern times when the era of modern space climatology began to emerge due to discoveries of sunspots and the solar activity cycle, along with development of early astronomical methods. The timeline concluded in the modern era with a description of the radiation environments of galactic cosmic rays, solar particle events and the Van Allen Belts.

Big bang↗

A Climatology of Dust Deposition in the Upper Colorado River Basin for February-May 1980-2023

This data set is a long-term climatology of the average monthly total dust deposition, wet and dry, for the months of February-May 1980-2023 pulled from the MERRA-2 reanalysis data set over the Upper Colorado River Basin. This data set can be used to study the long-term spatiotemporal patterns of dust deposition, especially on snow. This data set is associated with the preprint article “A multi-decadal climatology of dust-on-snow from wet deposition in the Upper Colorado River Basin”.

dry_dust_deposition↗

Spherical harmonic analysis of a synoptic climatology generated with a global general circulation model

Spherical harmonic analysis was used to analyze the observed climatological (C) fields of temperature at 850 mb, geopotential height at 500 mb, and sea level pressure. The spherical harmonic method was also applied to the corresponding "model climatological" fields (M) generated by a general circulation model, the "GISS climate model." The climate model was initialized with observed data for the first of December 1976 at 00. GMT and allowed to generate five years of meteorological history. Monthly means of the above fields for the five years were computed and subjected to spherical harmonic analysis. It was found from the comparison of the spectral components of both sets, M and C, that the climate model generated reasonable 500 mb geopotential heights. The model temperature field at 850 mb exhibited a generally correct structure. However, the meridional temperature gradient was overestimated and overheating of the continents was observed in summer.

Christidis, Z. D.↗

Arctic and Antarctic climatology of a GLAS general circulation model

A Jan.-Feb. climatology model was constructed from the GLAS general circulation model by averaging eight 30-day means of periods from Jan. 15-Feb. 14. The position and intensity of the Aleutian and Icelandic lows in the winter, the central Arctic pressure distribution during winter and summer, and the summertime North Atlantic and North Pacific high pressure regimes were satisfactorily simulated; sensible and evaporative heat fluxes and radiation budget parameters were reasonable, although a rigorous comparison is difficult due to data deficiencies. The model is less successful in simulating the Southern Hemisphere climatology; the 500 mb circumpolar flow is adequate, but the stationary low pressure centers at the surface around the Antarctic continent are not well reproduced.

Herman, G. F.↗

Calculations of the quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity gradient from climatological data

Climatological data (5-year sets) are used in calculating the quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity meridional gradient between 10 and 1000 mb for latitudes from 25 to 65 deg N in the months of January, April, July, and October. The data comprise zonal and one-month averaged values of the zonal velocity and temperature and represent seasonal transitions and extremes. It is noted that previous papers have shown that zeros of the meridional gradient are important in determining the stability properties of the atmosphere. It is shown that the profiles of the meridional gradient generated from the climatological data possess zero in all seasons and at many latitudes and levels. In all seasons, therefore, the atmosphere is shown to have a wide variety of potential sources of baroclinic instability.

Fullmer, J. W. A.↗

Problems in the climatology of the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruptions

A brief review of the effects of climate and weather on the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruptions and the subsequent dispersion of ash and gases and the reciprocal influences of the eruptions on climate and climatology is presented. The effects of mesoscale destruction of snow fields and vegetation, a revised mountain profile, and ash deposits are addressed along with impacts on hemispheric climate and disruption of normal climatological observations, in the areas directly affected by the explosions and ashfall. Environmental and economic consequences are also considered.

Critchfield, H. J.↗

Flight summaries and temperature climatology at airliner cruise altitudes from GASP (Global Atmospheric Sampling Program) data

Temperature data obtained by the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) during the period March 1975 to July 1979 are compiled to form flight summaries of static air temperature and a geographic temperature climatology. The flight summaries include the height and location of the coldest observed temperature and the mean flight level, temperature and the standard deviation of temperature for each flight as well as for flight segments. These summaries are ordered by route and month. The temperature climatology was computed for all statistically independent temperture data for each flight. The grid used consists of 5 deg latitude, 30 deg longitude and 2000 feet vertical resolution from FL270 to FL430 for each month of the year. The number of statistically independent observations, their mean, standard deviation and the empirical 98, 50, 16, 2 and .3 probability percentiles are presented.

Nastrom, G. D.↗

A Pioneer-class Mars climatology mission

Preliminary studies of a Pioneer-class Mars-orbiter climatology mission are reviewed. The mission requirements and objectives are discussed, as are the program requirements, a mission profile, possible spacecraft designs, payload options, and mission costs. It is shown that existing earth-orbiting communication satellites can be adapted for the climatology mission and that the overall baseline cost should be between $133 million and &168 million in 1982 dollars.

Nishioka, K.↗

The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) - The first project of the World Climate Research Programme

The first project of the World Climate Research Program is the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, (ISCCP) whose objective is the collection and analysis of satellite radiance data in order to infer the global distribution of cloud radiative properties and improve the modeling of cloud effects on climate. The operational component of ISCCP takes advantage of the global coverage provided by the current and planned international array of geostationary and polar-orbiting meteorological satellites in the 1980s. It will produce a five-year global radiance and cloud data set. The research component of ISCCP will coordinate studies to validate climatology, improve cloud analysis algorithms, improve cloud effects modelling, and investigate the role of clouds in the atmospheric radiation budget and hydrologic cycle.

Schiffer, R. A.↗

Climatology of ozone at altitudes from 19,000 at 59,000 feet based on combined GASP and ozonesonde data

A climatology of ozone for altitudes from FL190 to FL590 (19,000 to 59,000 ft) is presented. Climatological tables are given in two appendixes: one with d deg latitude resolution on a monthly basis, and one with 10 deg latitude resolution on a seasonal basis. Data were taken from 11,472 balloon-borne ozonesondes launched at 60 stations from 1963 to 1980 and from over 160,000 observations made by the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program on 4417 commercial airliner flights from 1975 to 1979. Case study and statistical comparisons of results from these two data sets showed that they are compatible and can be combined. Several examples of analyses that can be made by using the tabulated data are given and discussed.

Jasperson, W. H.↗

A global climatology of total ozone from the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer

A global climatology of total column ozone has been computed from 4 years of daily observations by the total ozone mapping spectrometer aboard the Nimbus 7 polar-orbiting satellite. Observations were made at local noon; no observations are available in polar regions during the polar night. The orbital data have been area averaged onto a regular 5 deg by 5 deg latitude-longitude grid. The global coverage is more than 90 percent complete during the last 3 observing years (October 1979 to September 1982) and approximately 70 percent complete during the first year (October 1978 to September 1979). Global maps of the temporal mean and rms variance and the amplitude and phase of the annual and semiannual harmonics are presented. Similar analyses of the zonal mean values are given along with a time-latitude section of the zonal-mean total ozone. This climatology should be useful both for validating numerical models and for inspiring theoretical analyses.

Bowman, K. P.↗