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DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying atmospheric carbon removal at pulp and paper mills: a life cycle assessment across system boundaries

The pulp and paper industry is a promising yet underexplored platform for large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) due to its use of biogenic feedstocks and production of concentrated CO 2 emissions from point sources. This study presents the first comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) of retrofitting an amine-based carbon capture and storage (CCS) system into a representative virgin kraft pulp and paper mill in the Southeastern U.S. We evaluate carbon removal across five system configurations, applying both static and dynamic LCA methods under multiple functional units: CO 2 captured, biomass input, and paper output. Results show that CCS retrofits can convert a conventional mill from a net emitter into a net carbon sink, with total removal efficiencies from 17% to 92% (metric tonnes of CO 2 removed per metric tonne of CO 2 available for removal under selected boundary conditions). When carbon removal is normalized to the quantity of biogenic CO 2 captured—a narrow, gate-to-gate system boundary that considers only CCS facility emissions—removal efficiencies reached as high as 92%. The use of such narrow boundaries aligns with precedents in traditional LCA methodology, where gate-to-gate assessments are commonly applied to isolate process-level performance and allocate emissions accordingly, providing a consistent basis for comparison across technologies. Under broader cradle-to-grave boundaries—which begin tracking carbon at the point of its physical removal from the atmosphere via photosynthesis in the forest, and extend to include upstream forest operations, mill-wide emissions, and downstream product decomposition—efficiencies declined, ranging from 17% to 46% under static assumptions and dropping to 12% when accounting for dynamic biogenic carbon fluxes over time. These results underscore how system boundary definitions influence reported outcomes, while also illustrating the complementary roles of narrow and broad perspectives for different decision-making contexts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparative techno-economic and environmental analysis of using nuclear energy and fossil energy with carbon sequestration in U.S. Gulf Coast petroleum refineries

U.S. Gulf Coast refineries have processing capacity of approximately 9.4 million barrels of crude oil per day—about 50% of U.S. national capacity—while consuming natural gas, electricity, and hydrogen, resulting in approximately 100 million metric tonnes (MMT) of onsite CO₂ emissions in 2022. This study evaluates two alternative refinery energy supply pathways: nuclear energy (NE) and fossil energy-derived hydrogen with carbon capture and sequestration (FE-CCS; autothermal reforming), intermittent renewable sources are not considered as they cannot reliably meet continuous industrial heat and hydrogen demands. Using publicly available data for refineries, we conducted a bottom-up, facility-level assessment to estimate energy use by type, well-to-gate refinery emissions, and associated costs of integration. Compared to current refinery operations using natural gas energy supply and conventional hydrogen production (steam methane reforming without sequestration), NE and FE-CCS could produce, respectively, average emissions reductions of 37% and 42%, total abatement costs of $\$$52–$\$$221 and $\$$211–$\$$612/MT CO₂, and additional costs of about $\$$0.2–$\$$6 and $\$$3–$\$$11 per barrel of crude, respectively. Our analysis indicates that 25 out of 27 refineries have lower total additional cost ($\$$/bbl.) for the NE scenario than the FE-CCS scenario, making a strong case for NE integration with petroleum refineries. This work's main contribution is a detailed bottom-up refinery-level analysis method that can be utilized by the worldwide refining industry and stakeholders as they assess different technological options, along with their costs and environmental impacts for a specific refinery operation.

Carbon capture and sequestration↗

DOE OSTI2026

The past, present, and future of peaking thermal power plants in the United States

Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage in Hydrogen Production: A Combined Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessment

This paper presents a coupled techno-economic and life cycle assessment of “blue” hydrogen to be produced at a hydrogen facility through steam methane reforming (SMR) equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Blue hydrogen was modeled in ChemCAD, while an integrated asset model represented the carbon capture and storage chain. An unabated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) configuration release 11.99 kgCO 2 -eq/ kgH 2 . Capturing ≥95% of the CO 2 stream lowers the carbon footprint to 6.59 kgCO 2 -eq/kgH2 but raises the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) from $\$$1.82/kgH 2 (no CO 2 capture) to $\$$3.22/kgH 2 ; the U.S. 45Q tax credit reduces it to $\$$2.59/kgH 2 . Incorporating CCS reduces the levelized net present value from $\$$0.87/kgH 2 to $\$$0.74/kgH 2 , owing to additional capture, transport, and storage costs. Supplying SMR with low-carbon electricity, especially nuclear, wind, or hydro, delivers the lowest carbon footprint relative to geothermal or grid mixes. Sensitivity analysis identifies that hydrogen sales price, internal rate of return, and CCS cost as the strongest economic levers, while electricity demand dominates residual lifecycle emissions. The results underscore a clear trade-off; substantial CO 2 reductions are achievable, but only with higher production costs, making supportive policy instruments, access to clean power, and robust hydrogen markets essential for large-scale deployment of blue hydrogen.

carbon capture↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Framework to Evaluate the Costs and Potential of Bioenergy in Decarbonization of the U.S. Economy

The long-term strategy of the United States targets reaching economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050 and a carbon-neutral electricity grid by 2035 (U.S. Department of State and U.S. Executive Office of the President, 2021). Meeting these targets would require considerable changes to the energy system. Some key characteristics of illustrative net-zero energy systems include increased penetration of renewable energy and carbon sources, use of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in hard-to-abate sectors, and a greater role for energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen (Davis et al, 2018). Another common feature of such energy systems is the need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches (Horowitz et al, 2022). Across all these characteristics of net-zero energy systems, bioenergy and biomass feedstock is anticipated to play an important role. Biomass feedstock serves as a renewable carbon source. This can enable conversion of such feedstock into fuels and energy carriers for hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation. Indeed, the U.S. Government has a target to meet all jet fuel demand by 2050 from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), where biofuel pathways are likely to have an important role (EERE, 2020). Bioenergy is also highly versatile with the possibility to convert feedstock into electricity, hydrogen, liquid fuels, heat or high-value products, based on biomass type, demand and technology availability (Clarke et al, 2022). Combination of bioenergy with CCS can also nominally deliver CDR (Fuhrman et al, 2023). As such, the share of bioenergy is expected to grow by at least five time across scenarios studied for the long-term strategy of the U.S. between 2020 and 2050 (Horowitz et al, 2022). Notwithstanding the role of bioenergy in the energy systems, its deployment, costs and scalability are influenced by a number of factors. Some of these factors pertain to policy interventions such as imposition of a binding decarbonization target either at an economy-wide level or the sectoral level. Resource availability and type of biomass feedstock also varies considerably across regions. From a technological perspective, the readiness of bioenergy conversion pathways is subject to high variability. This influences the costs of deployment. Moreover, the sourcing of feedstock, grid carbon intensity, and co-product handling approaches all affect the life cycle efficacy of bioenergy. The latter, in turn, is particularly important in determining the extent to which bioenergy with CCS or BECCS can effectively deliver CDR (Fajardy and Mac Dowell, 2017).

air emission↗

DOE OSTI2024

Representing Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Network Investments within Power System Planning Models

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and storage (CCS) is frequently identified as a potential component to achieving a decarbonized power system at least cost; however, power system models frequently lack detailed representation of CO 2 transportation, injection, and storage (CTS) infrastructure. In this paper, we present a novel approach to explicitly represent CO 2 storage potential and CTS infrastructure costs and constraints within a continental-scale power system capacity expansion model. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the future costs and performance of CTS components and carbon capture technologies. We find that the quantity of CO 2 captured within the power sector is relatively insensitive to the range of CTS costs explored, suggesting that the cost of CO 2 capture retrofits is a more important driver of CCS implementation than the costs of transportation and storage. Finally, we demonstrate that storage and injection costs account for the predominant share of total costs associated with CTS investment and operation, suggesting that pipeline infrastructure costs have limited influence on the competitiveness of CCS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Facies Analysis of the Prairie Du Chien Group in the Illinois Basin and Analogous Rocks in Missouri and Kentucky

Funded in 2023 by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Phase II Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) initiative, a Heidelberg Materials cement plant in Mitchell, Indiana, is currently being evaluated as a potential Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) subsurface injection site. The Heidelberg CCS project targets the middle to upper Prairie du Chien Group (Early Ordovician) in southwestern Indiana. Assessment of reservoir feasibility requires collection of field data, seismic surveys, well-log correlation, geologic modeling, characterization well drilling, well testing, and reservoir simulation. However, the proposed Heidelberg CCS site is in a data-limited region, lacking both outcrop analogs and deep wells penetrating the target interval, which makes geologic modelling difficult prior to drilling a characterization well. To directly address this problem, the present study was undertaken to understand the sedimentologic composition and stratigraphic architecture of the Prairie du Chien Group from analogous outcrops and cores in the Illinois Basin and adjacent regions.

Ali, Shah Bilawal [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Cha↗

DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Storage in Fold‐and‐Thrust Belts: An Overlooked Gigatonne Storage Opportunity

This study presents numerical investigations of the trapping characteristics of fold-and-thrust belt structures, defining three carbon capture and storage (CCS) play types that could be used to store commercial volumes (millions of tonnes) of CO 2 . Specifically, we present simulations of CO 2 storage in three fold-and-thrust belt models comprising a thrust-ramp, duplex, and thrust-fold geometry. To constrain these play types in realistic geology, each model is based on a study site, including a novel investigation of a greenfield saline reservoir in Virginia, USA, being considered for commercial carbon storage and two well-characterized petroleum fields: the Wilburton field in Oklahoma, USA, and the Incahuasi field in Bolivia. Our results provide insight into several key parameters, such as the long-term security of injected CO 2 in these geologies and injection strategies for maximizing storage efficiency while reducing pressure-related risk. These results improve the understanding of CCS in fold-and-thrust belt storage sites globally by describing general storage parameters that may be applied to site-specific projects. We find that thrust-ramp geometries may securely trap CO 2 through solubility and hydrodynamic trapping under suitable reservoir conditions, duplex structures may store some quantities of CO 2 but are pressure-constrained, and that thrust-ramp structures may store large quantities of CO 2 by maximizing fetch volume, which simultaneously lowers geomechanical risk by reducing pressure buildup along zones of weakness.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Play-Based Exploration of CO 2 Storage in the Illinois Basin: Community Baseline Assessment for Carbon Storage Engagement Planning in the Illinois Basin

This report presents a stakeholder mapping analysis conducted as part of the Play-Based Exploration of CO 2 Storage in the Illinois Basin project (DOE Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0032366). The analysis was undertaken to systematically identify, categorize, and characterize stakeholder groups and community conditions relevant to the planning and deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) infrastructure across the Illinois Basin. Its purpose is to establish a contextual baseline that informs targeted engagement strategies, supports equitable project planning, and strengthens the social dimensions of CCS site screening.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Play-Based Exploration of CO 2 Storage in the Illinois Basin: Development and Application of the Play-Based Exploration Workflow

This report documents the workflow developed and applied for a play-based exploration (PBE) of carbon capture and storage (CCS) potential in the Illinois Basin, conducted under U.S. Department of Energy Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0032366. The project was led by the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign in collaboration with Visage Energy. The goal of this workflow is to identify locations where subsurface, surface, and societal conditions align to support safe and effective geologic CO 2 storage. To achieve this, the project team developed a systematic, seven-step workflow for conducting play-based exploration: (1) defining play elements, (2) collecting data, (3) constructing a geodatabase, (4) defining suitability criteria, (5) conducting suitability mapping, (6) generating Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps, and (7) creating composite play maps. The workflow is designed to be repeatable and adaptable for CCS assessments in other regions or for alternative subsurface energy applications such as hydrogen or natural gas storage.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of carbon capture at cellulosic biorefineries

The large-scale production of cellulosic biofuels would involve spatially distributed systems including biomass fields, logistics networks and biorefineries. Better understanding of the interactions between landscape-related decisions and the design of biorefineries with carbon capture and storage (CCS) in a supply chain context is needed to enable efficient systems. Here we analyse the cost and greenhouse gas mitigation potential for cellulosic biofuel supply chains in the US Midwest using realistic spatially explicit land availability and crop productivity data and consider fuel conversion technologies with detailed CCS design for their associated CO2 streams.

carbon capture and storage (CCS)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Anion Exchange Membrane Water Electrolysis Using a Catalyst-Coated Membrane Cathode

A catalyst-coated membrane (CCM) approach to electrode fabrication for high pH water electrolysis offers enhanced interfacial contact between the catalyst layer and the membrane surface in comparison to the catalyst-coated substrate (CCS) electrode configuration. The CCM facilitates enhanced ionic and water transport between the cathode and the anion exchange membrane (AEM). This advantage is particularly significant with AEM water electrolysis (compared to proton exchange membrane water electrolysis) because the cathode typically operates under dry conditions and relies solely on diffusive water transport across the AEM from the liquid-fed anode. This study presents a direct performance comparison between CCS and CCM cathode configurations using identical hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) catalysts and other components. The use of a pseudo-reference electrode integrated into the membrane electrode assembly enabled detailed analysis of the CCM cathode polarization behavior. Surface characterization provided insight into the degradation mechanisms associated with the CCM configuration. Optimization of the cathode ionomer cross-link density improved both the cathode polarization performance and the electrolysis device durability. Further optimization of the HER catalyst loading in the CCM cathode resulted in additional gains in the electrolysis efficiency. Collectively, these findings offer valuable guidance for the design and fabrication of high-performance, durable AEM electrolysis CCMs.

Water electrolysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conformally coated scaffold design using water-tolerant Pr 1.8 Ba 0.2 NiO 4.1 for protonic ceramic electrochemical cells with 5,000-h electrolysis stability

Protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCECs) have potential as long-duration energy storage systems. However, their operational stability is limited under industrially relevant conditions due to the intrinsic chemical instability of doped barium cerate-based electrolytes and oxygen electrodes against H 2 O, as well as the poor electrode–electrolyte interfacial contact. Here, in this study, we present a conformally coated scaffold (CCS) design to comprehensively address these issues. A porous proton-conducting scaffold is constructed and conformally coated with Pr 1.8 Ba 0.2 NiO 4.1 electrocatalyst, which has high chemical stability against H 2 O, triple conductivity and hydration capability, and protects vulnerable electrolytes from H 2 O. The CCS structure consolidates the electrode–electrolyte interfacial bonding to enable fast proton transfer in the percolated network. This design enables PCECs to reach electrolysis stability for 5,000 h at −1.5 A cm−2 and 600 °C in 40% H 2 O. This work provides a general strategy to stabilize PCECs and offers guidance for designing resilient and stable solid-state energy storage systems.

Protonic ceramic electrochemical cell↗

DOE OSTI2025

Establishment of a Nationwide Plasma Science and Fusion Energy Certification and Apprenticeship Programs

Here we propose the establishment of a national Plasma Science and Fusion Energy training program that will combine professional development certification courses with hands-on apprenticeship opportunities. The program should be developed by a collaboration of stakeholders (academia, national laboratories, and industry) and should offer pathways for students from community colleges (CCs), minority-serving institutions (MSIs), high school graduates, and veterans. We argue that certification courses offer fast and flexible discipline-specific education that can be rapidly translated into marketable skills through hands-on apprenticeship opportunities. Furthermore, we first list major findings and recommendations related to the fusion workforce and discuss how to address them through the establishment of the proposed training program. We then highlight the appropriateness of this format for engagement with CCs, MSIs, high schools, and veteran employment services. In the final section, we provide a strategy for the establishment of the program, along with a tentative timeline and projected costs.

Certification↗

DOE OSTI2026

Variation in supercurrent connectivity and vortex pinning of state-of-the-art pulsed laser deposited RE Ba 2 Cu 3 O 7- x coated conductors

REBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-x (REBCO, RE: rare earth) coated conductors (CCs) suffer from great critical current I c differences between different manufacturers, I c variations within individual manufacturers, and often significant lengthwise fluctuations. The understanding of such variations is complicated by the lack of a direct correlation between I c and the critical current density J c . In fact, although J c is the fundamental property determined by the local vortex pinning landscape, I c is often limited by variable current blocking mechanisms. An important practical complexity is commercial practices of performing J c and I c evaluations based on I c at 77 K and self-field (sf), where connectivity variation dominates over vortex pinning variations. However, at higher fields and lower temperatures, vortex pinning becomes more complex and highly variable, making predictions of I c and J c at arbitrary temperature T, magnetic field H, and field orientation θ, quite uncertain. To address some aspects of this problem, we conducted detailed spool-to-spool performance characterization on recently manufactured REBCO CCs. Despite J c (77 K, sf) varies by only ∼11%, J c (77 K, 1 T) of its minimum and maximum (for H//ab-plane) show variations of ∼21% and ∼32%, respectively. This emphasizes the shortcoming in using J c (77 K, sf) as parameter for evaluating even the low field performance. An even more remarkable spool-to-spool J c variation of ∼68% was observed at 20 K and 15 T for H//ab-plane. To identify the origin of such lack of reproducibility we performed microstructural characterizations, which revealed, within the REBCO layer, large variation in the density of copper oxide (CuO x ) particles ranging from 0.1 to 2 μm in size. We believe that they play a decisive role in reducing the effective cross-section of the REBCO layer by not simply blocking current themselves, but also by nucleating off-axis REBCO grains, whose misoriented grain boundaries adversely impact REBCO grain-to-grain connectivity. The REBCO growth associated with high density CuO x particles also leads to the more disordered spatial arrangement of BaHfO 3 precipitate arrays, which, when self-aligning along the ab-planes, generate stronger pinning enhancing J c (H//ab) at all temperatures. In this way, we established that variations of both connectivity and vortex pinning are thus directly coupled. Our results also explain why the so-called ‘lift-factor’, typically defined by the ratio between I c (T, H) and I c (77 K, sf), frequently turns out to be unreliable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impact of regional resources and technology availability on carbon dioxide removal potential in the United States

To achieve net zero carbon emissions by mid-century, the United States may need to rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to offset emissions from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors and/or shortfalls in near-term mitigation efforts. CDR can be delivered using many approaches with different requirements for land, water, geologic carbon storage capacity, energy, and other resources. The availability of these resources varies by region in the U.S. suggesting that CDR deployment will be uneven across the country. Using the global change analysis model for the United States (GCAM-USA), we modeled six classes of CDR and explored their potential using four scenarios: a scenario where all the CDR pathways are available (Full Portfolio), a scenario with restricted carbon capture and storage (Low CCS), a scenario where the availability of bio-based CDR options is limited (Low Bio), and a scenario with constraints on enhanced rock weathering (ERW) capabilities (Low ERW). We find that by employing a diverse set of CDR approaches, the U.S. could remove between 1 and 1.9 GtCO 2 /yr by midcentury. In the Full Portfolio scenario, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) predominates, delivering approximately 50% of CO 2 removal, with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage contributing 25%, and ERW delivering 11.5%. Texas and the agricultural Midwest lead in CDR deployment due to their abundant agricultural land and geological storage availability. In the Low CCS scenario, reliance on DACCS decreases, easing pressure on energy systems but increasing pressure on the land. In all cases CDR deployment was found to drive important impacts on energy, land, or materials supply chains (to supply ERW, for example) and these effects were generally more pronounced when fewer CDR technologies were available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Abstract for CRADA between NETL and Louisiana State University

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Louisiana State University (PARTICIPANT) will collaborate in developing and testing distributed optical fiber CO 2 sensors for CO 2 storage site monitoring. Safe and reliable monitoring of CO 2 storage sites and transport infrastructure is critical for ensuring the long-term effectiveness and integrity of carbon capture and storage (CCS). In this project, the objective is to develop a novel optical fiber-based distributed CO 2 sensor for long-term monitoring of CCS sites and CO 2 pipelines and also implement machine learning to automate leak and structural anomaly detection. This effort aligns with NETL’s mission in reliable and sustainable energy and decarbonization.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

Presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗