Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Bayesian Statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of nuclear symmetry energy from measured and imagined neutron skin thickness in Sn 116 , 118 , 120 , 122 , 124 , 130 , 132 , Pb 208 , and Ca 48

The neutron skin thickness Δr np in heavy nuclei has been known as one of the most sensitive terrestrial probes of the nuclear symmetry energy E sym (ρ) around $\frac{2}{3}$ of the saturation density ρ 0 of nuclear matter. Existing neutron skin data mostly from hadronic observables suffer from large uncertainties and their extraction from experiments are often strongly model dependent. While waiting eagerly for the promised model-independent and high-precision neutron skin data for 208 Pb and 48 Ca from the parity-violating electron scattering experiments (PREX-II and CREX at JLab as well as MREX at MESA), within the Bayesian statistical framework using the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the slope parameter L of the nuclear symmetry energy at ρ 0 from imagined Δr np ( 208 Pb)=0.15, 0.20, and 0.30 fm with a 1σ error bar of 0.02, 0.04, and 0.06 fm, respectively, as well as Δr np ( 48 Ca)=0.12, 0.15, and 0.25 fm, with different 1σ error bar of 0.01 and 0.02 fm, respectively. The results are compared with the PDFs of L inferred using the same approach from the available Δr np data for 116, 118, 120, 122, 124, 130, 132 Sn from hadronic probes. They are also compared with results from a recent Bayesian analysis of the radius and tidal deformability data of canonical neutron stars from GW170817 and NICER. The neutron skin data for Sn isotopes gives L = 45.5 $^{+ 26.5}_{-21.6}$ MeV surrounding its mean value or L = 53 . 4 $^{+ 18.6}_{ -29.5}$ MeV surrounding its maximum a posteriori value, respectively, with the latter smaller than but consistent with the L = 66 $^{+ 12}_{-20}$ MeV from the neutron star data within their 68% confidence intervals. We found that Δr np = 0.17 –0.18 fm in 208 Pb with an error bar of about 0.02 fm leads to a PDF of L compatible with that from analyzing the Sn data. To provide additionally useful information on L extracted from the Δr np of Sn isotopes, the experimental error bar of Δr np in 208 Pb should be at least smaller than 0.06 fm aimed by some current experiments. In addition, the Δr np ( 48 Ca) needs to be larger than 0.15 fm but smaller than 0.25 fm to be compatible with the Sn and/or neutron star results. To further improve our current knowledge about L and distinguish its PDFs in the examples considered, even higher precisions leading to significantly less than ±20 MeV error bars for L at 68% confidence level are necessary.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Towards Validation of an Adaptive Flight Control Simulation Using Statistical Emulation

Traditional validation of flight control systems is based primarily upon empirical testing. Empirical testing is sufficient for simple systems in which a.) the behavior is approximately linear and b.) humans are in-the-loop and responsible for off-nominal flight regimes. A different possible concept of operation is to use adaptive flight control systems with online learning neural networks (OLNNs) in combination with a human pilot for off-nominal flight behavior (such as when a plane has been damaged). Validating these systems is difficult because the controller is changing during the flight in a nonlinear way, and because the pilot and the control system have the potential to co-adapt in adverse ways traditional empirical methods are unlikely to provide any guarantees in this case. Additionally, the time it takes to find unsafe regions within the flight envelope using empirical testing means that the time between adaptive controller design iterations is large. This paper describes a new concept for validating adaptive control systems using methods based on Bayesian statistics. This validation framework allows the analyst to build nonlinear models with modal behavior, and to have an uncertainty estimate for the difference between the behaviors of the model and system under test.

He, Yuning↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm objects are an empirical extension from larger debris. The extension takes into account the results of micro-debris (from 10 micron to 1 mm) population modeling that is based on shuttle impact data, in the hope of making a smooth transition between micron and millimeter size regimes. This paper also includes a brief discussion on issues and potential future work concerning the analysis and interpretation of Goldstone radar data.

Xu, Y.-L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inference of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections from HADES proton flow data

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian Process emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions at intermediate energies, we infer from the HADES proton flow data the posterior probability distribution functions of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section modification factor X with respect to free-space and the corresponding incompressibility K of nuclear matter as well as their correlation function. In conclusion, the mean value of X is found to be $X$ = $1.32_ {+0.28} ^ {-0.40} $ at 68% confidence level assuming the nuclear incompressibility K will not exceed 400 MeV, providing circumstantial evidence for enhanced baryon-braryon scattering cross sections in hot and dense nuclear matter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Parameter Estimation of the k-ω Shear Stress Transport Model for Accurate Simulations of Impinging-Jet Heat Transfer

Given the lack of fusion-relevant component test facilities, current estimates of the thermo-fluid performance of plasma-facing components are based for the most part on numerical simulations. A major source of uncertainty in these simulations is the semiempirical turbulence (closure) models for the Reynolds stresses appearing in the governing Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations, which involve a set of constants that depend upon the flow. The objective of this study is to evaluate Bayesian parameter estimation of turbulence closure constants in ANSYS Fluent to model heat transfer in impinging jets. The Bayesian statistical calibration produces a probability distribution for these constants from experimental data; the maximum a posteriori estimates are then taken to be the calibrated constants, or parameters. The turbulence model constants are calibrated using an experimental study of a submerged jet of air impinging on a flat heated surface at Reynolds numbers Re = O(10 4 ) and impingement distance in jet diameters H/d = 2. Numerical predictions using the calibrated model parameters are then compared with those generated using the default constants. Predictions obtained with model parameters calibrated on datasets of two different sizes are compared to evaluate the effect of the number of calibration samples. Lastly, the extrapolative ability of the calibrated model is examined by predictions at a Re beyond the calibration values.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian uncertainty quantification for nuclear matter incompressibility

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using the standard Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model, the maximum a posteriori (MAP) values and uncertainties of nuclear matter incompressibility and isovector interaction parameters are inferred from the experimental data of giant resonances and neutron-skin thicknesses of typical heavy nuclei. Furthermore, with the uncertainties of the isovector interaction parameters constrained by the data of the isovector giant dipole resonance and the neutron-skin thickness, we have obtained K 0 = 223$^{+7}_{–8}$ MeV at 68% confidence level using the data of the isoscalar giant monopole resonance in 208 Pb measured at the Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Japan, and at the Texas A&M University, USA. Although the corresponding 120 Sn data gives a MAP value for K 0 about 5 MeV smaller than the 208 Pb data, there are significant overlaps in their posterior probability distribution functions.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unlocking hidden information in sparse small-angle neutron scattering measurements

Hypothesis Small-Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) is a powerful technique for studying soft matter systems such as colloids, polymers, and lyotropic phases, providing nanoscale structural insights. However, its effectiveness is limited by low neutron flux, leading to long acquisition times and noisy data. Here, we hypothesize that Bayesian statistical inference using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) can reconstruct high-fidelity scattering data from sparse measurements by leveraging intensity smoothness and continuity. Experiments and Simulations The method was benchmarked computationally and validated through SANS experiments on various soft matter systems, including wormlike micelles, colloidal suspensions, polymeric structures, and lyotropic phases. GPR-based inference was applied to both experimental and synthetic data to evaluate its effectiveness in noise reduction and intensity reconstruction. Findings GPR significantly enhances SANS data quality and therefore reducing measurement times by up to two orders of magnitude. This cost-effective approach maximizes experimental efficiency, enabling high-throughput studies and real-time monitoring of dynamic systems. It is particularly beneficial for weakly scattering and time-sensitive studies. Beyond SANS, this framework applies to other low-SNR techniques, including laboratory-based small-angle X-ray scattering and various dynamical scattering methods. Furthermore, it offers transformative potential for compact neutron sources, enhancing their viability for structural analysis in resource-limited settings.

Small angle neutron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of process steady state with autoregressive models and Bayesian inference

To improve efficiency, separations engineers will typically design process circuits containing recirculating streams, which mix one or more of the process outputs with the feed material. Doing so can improve efficiency, but will cause a delay in the system reaching steady state conditions until the recirculating load mass flows stabilize. In testing separation circuits, engineers will often test a variety of factors and complete an analysis from sample results. Knowledge of if a process is at steady state, as well as the steady state conditions of a process, is essential for a valid techno-economic analysis. However, the definition of process steady state is often poorly defined, or does not include uncertainty quantification. If the performance of a process operating under two different sets of conditions are compared, an engineer who does not test for steady state or quantify steady state conditions risks producing a faulty analysis. In this work, a Bayesian statistical method for testing if all streams are at steady state is further motivated and then derived. Then after testing for steady state, the same model is used with a prior distribution that enforces a steady state assumption to estimate steady state conditions. Further, these methods were validated in a solvent extraction pilot plant where steady state conditions for all outflows were inferred with uncertainty quantification. Analysis is completed with functions available to the reader as part of the BayesMassBal (V 1.1.0) software package written in R.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reweighting the Sivers function with jet data from STAR

The reweighting procedure that using Bayesian statistics incorporates the information contained in a new data set, without the need of re-fitting, is applied to the quark Sivers function extracted from Semi-Inclusive Deep Inelastic Scattering (SIDIS) data. We exploit the recently published single spin asymmetry data for the inclusive jet production in polarized pp collisions from the STAR Collaboration at RHIC, which cover a much wider x region compared to SIDIS measurements. The reweighting method is extended to the case of asymmetric errors and the results show a remarkable improvement of the knowledge of the quark Sivers function.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics

In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth’s atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently-developed Lagrangian particle-based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next-generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process-level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle-based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian tomography of high-dimensional on-chip biphoton frequency combs with randomized measurements

Abstract Owing in large part to the advent of integrated biphoton frequency combs, recent years have witnessed increased attention to quantum information processing in the frequency domain for its inherent high dimensionality and entanglement compatible with fiber-optic networks. Quantum state tomography of such states, however, has required complex and precise engineering of active frequency mixing operations, which are difficult to scale. To address these limitations, we propose a solution that employs a pulse shaper and electro-optic phase modulator to perform random operations instead of mixing in a prescribed manner. We successfully verify the entanglement and reconstruct the full density matrix of biphoton frequency combs generated from an on-chip Si 3 N 4 microring resonator in up to an 8 × 8-dimensional two-qudit Hilbert space, the highest dimension to date for frequency bins. More generally, our employed Bayesian statistical model can be tailored to a variety of quantum systems with restricted measurement capabilities, forming an opportunistic tomographic framework that utilizes all available data in an optimal way.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precision mass measurement of lightweight self-conjugate nucleus 80 Zr

Protons and neutrons in the atomic nucleus move in shells analogous to the electronic shell structures of atoms. The nuclear shell structure varies due to changes of the nuclear mean field with the number of neutrons N and protons Z, and these variations can be probed by measuring mass differences between nuclei. The N=Z=40 self-conjugate nucleus 80 Zr is of particular interest as its proton and neutron shell structures are expected to be very similar, and its ground state is highly deformed. Here, we provide evidence for the existence of a deformed double shell closure in 80Zr through high precision Penning trap mass measurements of 80-83 Zr. Our mass values show that 80Zr is significantly lighter, and thus more strongly bound than predicted. This can be attributed to the deformed shell closure at N=Z=40 and the large Wigner energy. A statistical Bayesian model mixing analysis employing several global nuclear mass models demonstrates difficulties with reproducing the observed mass anomaly using current theory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic graphical model foundation for enabling predictive digital twins at scale

A unifying mathematical formulation is needed to move from one-off digital twins built through custom implementations to robust digital twin implementations at scale. This work proposes a probabilistic graphical model as a formal mathematical representation of a digital twin and its associated physical asset. We create an abstraction of the asset–twin system as a set of coupled dynamical systems, evolving over time through their respective state spaces and interacting via observed data and control inputs. The formal definition of this coupled system as a probabilistic graphical model enables us to draw upon well-established theory and methods from Bayesian statistics, dynamical systems and control theory. The declarative and general nature of the proposed digital twin model make it rigorous yet flexible, enabling its application at scale in a diverse range of application areas. Here, we demonstrate how the model is instantiated to enable a structural digital twin of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The digital twin is calibrated using experimental data from a physical UAV asset. Its use in dynamic decision-making is then illustrated in a synthetic example where the UAV undergoes an in-flight damage event and the digital twin is dynamically updated using sensor data. The graphical model foundation ensures that the digital twin calibration and updating process is principled, unified and able to scale to an entire fleet of digital twins.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of differential scanning calorimetry data for aged plutonium

Differential scanning calorimetry data for samples of a 52 year old plutonium alloy with 3.3 at. % Ga that were heated beyond the melting point is analyzed using transition state theory to find activation energies for the δ to ε and ε to liquid phase transitions. A Bayesian statistical method involving a Gaussian process model is used to find mean values and confidence intervals for the activation energies. The activation energy for the δ to ε phase transition increases by 3.3 ± 3.8% per decade, relative to the case when all age related plutonium lattice point defects have been removed through annealing. The corresponding increase in activation energy for the ε to liquid transition is shown to be 7.1 ± 1.8% per decade. It is postulated that the change in activation energy with age for both phase transitions is caused, in part, by the accumulation of the same type of lattice point defects associated with the observed increase in elastic bulk modulus over time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank approximation of Hessians in inverse problems, with application to ice sheet model initialization

Obtaining lightweight and accurate approximations of discretized objective functional Hessians in inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is essential to make both deterministic and Bayesian statistical large-scale inverse problems computationally tractable. The cubic computational complexity of dense linear algebraic tasks, such as Cholesky factorization, that provide a means to sample Gaussian distributions and determine solutions of Newton linear systems is a computational bottleneck at large-scale. These tasks can be reduced to log-linear complexity by utilizing hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank (HODLR) matrix approximations. In this work, we show that a class of Hessians that arise from inverse problems governed by PDEs are well approximated by the HODLR matrix format. In particular, we study inverse problems governed by PDEs that model the instantaneous viscous flow of ice sheets. In these problems, we seek a spatially distributed basal sliding parameter field such that the flow predicted by the ice sheet model is consistent with ice sheet surface velocity observations. Here, we demonstrate the use of HODLR Hessian approximation to efficiently sample the Laplace approximation of the posterior distribution with covariance further approximated by HODLR matrix compression. Computational studies are performed which illustrate ice sheet problem regimes for which the Gauss–Newton data-misfit Hessian is more efficiently approximated by the HODLR matrix format than the low-rank (LR) format. We then demonstrate that HODLR approximations can be favorable, when compared to global LR approximations, for large-scale problems by studying the data-misfit Hessian associated with inverse problems governed by the first-order Stokes flow model on the Humboldt glacier and Greenland ice sheet.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference of the incompressibility, skewness and kurtosis of nuclear matter from empirical pressures in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Within the Bayesian statistical framework we infer the incompressibility K 0 , skewness J 0 and kurtosis Z 0 parameters of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) at its saturation density ρ 0 using the constraining bands on the pressure in cold SNM in the density range of 1.3ρ 0 to 4.5ρ 0 from transport model analyses of kaon production and nuclear collective flow in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. As the default option assuming the K 0 , J 0 and Z 0 have Gaussian prior probability distribution functions (PDFs) with the means and variances of 235±30, -200±200 and -146±1728 MeV, their posterior most probable values are narrowed down to 192$^{+12}_{-16}$ MeV, -180$^{+100}_{-110}$ MeV and ${\mathrm{200}}_{-250}^{+250}$ at 68% confidence level, respectively. The results are largely independent of the prior PDFs of J 0 and Z 0 used. However, if one adopts the strong belief that the incompressibility K 0 has a uniform prior PDF within its absolute boundary of 220–260 MeV as one can find easily in the literature, the posterior most probable values of K 0 , J 0 and Z 0 shift to ${K}_{0}=22{0}_{-0}^{+6}$ MeV, ${J}_{0}=-39{0}_{-70}^{+60}$ MeV and ${Z}_{0}=60{0}_{-200}^{+200}$ MeV, respectively. While the posterior PDFs of the SNM EOS parameters depend somewhat on the prior PDF of K 0 used, the results from using different prior PDFs are qualitatively consistent. The uncertainties of all three parameters are significantly reduced especially for the J 0 and Z 0 parameters compared to their current values.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

From Optimization to Sampling Through Gradient Flows

Optimization and sampling algorithms play a central role in science and engineering as they enable finding optimal predictions, policies, and recommendations, as well as expected and equilibrium states of complex systems. The notion of “optimality” is formalized by the choice of an objective function, while the notion of an “expected” state is specified by a probabilistic model for the distribution of states. Optimizing rugged objective functions and sampling multimodal distributions is computationally challenging, especially in high-dimensional problems. Here, for this reason, many optimization and sampling methods have been developed by researchers working in disparate fields such as Bayesian statistics, molecular dynamics, genetics, quantum chemistry, machine learning, weather forecasting, econometrics, and medical imaging.

Trillos, N. García↗
DOE OSTI2024

Maximally local two-nucleon interactions at N 3 LO in Δ -less chiral effective field theory

We present new maximally local two-nucleon interactions derived in Δ -less chiral effective field theory up to next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order ( N 3 LO ), which include all contact and pion-exchange contributions to the nuclear Hamiltonian up to this order. Our interactions are fit to nucleon-nucleon phase shifts using a Bayesian statistical approach, and explore a wide cutoff range from 0.6 – 0.9 fm ( ≈ 660 – 440 MeV ). These interactions can be straightforwardly employed in quantum Monte Carlo methods, such as the auxiliary field diffusion Monte Carlo method. Together with local three-nucleon forces, calculations with these new interactions will provide improved benchmarks for the structure of atomic nuclei and serve as crucial input to analyses of astrophysical phenomena of neutron stars, such as binary neutron-star mergers. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗