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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2016

Capabilities of long-baseline experiments in the presence of a sterile neutrino

Assuming that there is a sterile neutrino, we ask what then is the ability of long-baseline experiments to i) establish that neutrino oscillation violates CP, ii) determine the three-neutrino mass ordering, and iii) determine which CP-violating phase or phases are the cause of any CP violation that may be observed. We find that the ability to establish CP violation and to determine the mass ordering could be very substantial. However, the effects of the sterile neutrino could be quite large, and it might prove very difficult to determine which phase is responsible for an observed CP violation. We explain why a sterile neutrino changes the long-baseline sensitivities to CP violation and to the mass ordering in the ways that it does. We note that long-baseline experiments can probe the presence of sterile neutrinos in a way that is different from, and complementary to, the probes of short-baseline experiments. As a result, we explore the question of how large sterile-active mixing angles need to be before long-baseline experiments can detect their effects, or how small they need to be before the interpretation of these experiments can safely disregard the possible existence of sterile neutrinos.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Development of an approach to correcting MicroPEM baseline drift

Highlights: • Unacceptable baseline drift of real-time PM{sub 2.5} data measured by microPEM can lead to exposure miscalculation. • A reliable method was developed to adjust the baseline based on ambient PM{sub 2.5} levels provided by fixed monitoring sites. • It is also critical to tie the real-time data with mass-weighted average optical properties of PM{sub 2.5} collected. • This method can efficiently correct ~ 81% of the measurements with the baseline drift issue. Fine particulate matter (PM{sub 2.5}) is associated with various adverse health outcomes. The MicroPEM (RTI, NC), a miniaturized real-time portable particulate sensor with an integrated filter for collecting particles, has been widely used for personal PM{sub 2.5} exposure assessment. Five-day deployments were targeted on a total of 142 deployments (personal or residential) to obtain real-time PM{sub 2.5} levels from children living in New York City and Baltimore. Among these 142 deployments, 79 applied high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters in the field at the beginning and end of each deployment to adjust the zero level of the nephelometer. However, unacceptable baseline drift was observed in a large fraction (> 40%) of acquisitions in this study even after HEPA correction. This drift issue has been observed in several other studies as well. The purpose of the present study is to develop an algorithm to correct the baseline drift in MicroPEM based on central site ambient data during inactive time periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Algorithm for CVR Baseline Estimation

This paper presents a novel iterative, bidirectional, gradient boosting (bidirectional-GB) algorithm for estimating the baseline of the Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) program. We define the CVR baseline as the load profile during the CVR period if the substation voltage is not lowered. The proposed algorithm consists of two key steps: selection of similar days and iterative bidirectional-GB training. In the first step, preand post-event temperature profiles of the targeted CVR day are used to select similar days from historical non-CVR days. In the second step, the pre-event and post-event similar days are used to train two GBMs iteratively: a forward-GBM and a backwardGBM. After each iteration, the two generated CVR baselines are reconciled and only the first and the last points on the reconciled baseline are kept. The iteration repeats until all CVR baseline points are generated. We tested two gradient boosting methods (i.e., GBM and LighGBM) with two data resolutions (i.e., 15and 30-minute). The results demonstrate that both the accuracy and performance of the algorithm are satisfactory.

Lee, Han Pyo↗

DOE OSTI2023

Baseline Fuel Fabrication Facility

PRO-RR is the research reactor focused program element of the broader Proliferation Resistance Optimization program (PRO-X) under the National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). PRO-X provides a framework for integrating proliferation resistance in nuclear system designs to minimize weapons usable nuclear materials (WUNM) production and diversion pathways while optimizing systems performance for peaceful use missions. PRO-RR applies the PRO-X mission objectives to research reactor system design. This document serves as one of the foundational documents for the PRO-RR-Fuel System Design technical team by documenting a baseline fuel fabrication facility to be used for further optimization studies. The PRO-RR-Fuel System Design technical team consists of subject matter experts from Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) and Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). In order to develop specific strategies for fuel fabrication facilities to optimize proliferation resistance, performance, and safety, a baseline fuel fabrication facility design basis was developed. Having a baseline design basis allows for the qualitative and quantitative comparison of design choices in the optimization process. This report describes the baseline fuel fabrication facility and general optimization strategy. Chapter 2 describes the fuel system selected for examination, the fabrication process used as the baseline, a description of the model developed to track uranium utilization, and a generic floorplan of the fabrication facility. Chapter 3 describes the overarching optimization strategy that could be implemented for a fabrication facility.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian Process Regression for Aggregate Baseline Load Forecasting

Demand response (DR) is one of the most effective ways to maintain the reliability and improve the flexibility of power systems. Accurate forecasts of baseline loads are essential for DR programs. In the era of big data, machine learning-based approaches present a unique opportunity for baseline load forecasting. Thus, this paper presents a machine learning-based approach using a relatively less explored algorithm, Gaussian process regression (GPR), to forecast aggregate baseline loads. As such, a dataset was generated using a set of EnergyPlus simulations. Using the generated dataset, a GPR-based forecasting model was developed. In addition, support vector regression (SVR)-, artificial neural network (ANN)-, and averaging-based models were developed as baseline models for comparison. These models were compared in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and integrity. The prediction performance of the models showed that the GPR-based model is more accurate and reliable than the others. Such high performance shows the potential of the GPR in baseline load forecasting. GPR, therefore, can be used for DR applications.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

NASA NTRS1984

A comparison between Lageos laser ranging and VLBI determined baselines

Two independent measurement techniques, Lageos satellite laser ranging (SLR), and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) are compared in the measurement of distances (or baselines) between several locations in the continental U.S. The results of this analysis is summarized where both the SLR and VLBI baseline lengths and their differences (SLR minus VLBI) are presented. A comparison of the 22 baselines shows a mean difference of 1.0 + or - 1.1 cm with a scatter about zero of 5.2 cm. No apparent systematic scale difference between the networks is evident. A map of the baselines is included and indicates their differences, SLR minus VLBI, in centimeters.

Kolenkiewicz, R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

VLBI Solutions for the Time Variation of DSN Baselines: 1978 - 1983

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) results are presented for the two baseline sectors between the Goldstone DSN antenna complex and the overseas sites at Canberra, Australia and Madrid, Spain. Results from solutions using data taken between 1978 September and 1983 May show an apparent California-Spain baseline length increase of 21 cm during this time span, while the California-Australia length has remained constant. Statistical investigations of the integrity of the data are discussed along with dominant systematic error sources and their effect on baseline length determination. Results and interpretation of the time behavior of the angle between DSN baselines are also described.

Treuhaft, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Baseline estimation from simultaneous satellite laser tracking

Simultaneous Range Differences (SRDs) to Lageos are obtained by dividing the observing stations into pairs with quasi-simultaneous observations. For each of those pairs the station with the least number of observations is identified, and at its observing epochs interpolated ranges for the alternate station are generated. The SRD observables are obtained by subtracting the actually observed laser range of the station having the least number of observations from the interpolated ranges of the alternate station. On the basis of these observables semidynamic single baseline solutions were performed. The aim of these solutions is to further develop and implement the SRD method in the real data environment, to assess its accuracy, its advantages and disadvantages as related to the range dynamic mode methods, when the baselines are the only parameters of interest. Baselines, using simultaneous laser range observations to Lageos, were also estimated through the purely geometric method. These baselines formed the standards the standards of comparison in the accuracy assessment of the SRD method when compared to that of the range dynamic mode methods. On the basis of this comparison it was concluded that for baselines of regional extent the SRD method is very effective, efficient, and at least as accurate as the range dynamic mode methods, and that on the basis of a simple orbital modeling and a limited orbit adjustment. The SRD method is insensitive to the inconsistencies affecting the terrestrial reference frame and simultaneous adjustment of the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) is not necessary.

Dedes, George C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Angular navigation on short baselines using phase delay interferometry

Results are presented for two recent short baseline experiments, with baseline lengths of 6 and 253 km, showing delay residuals of 10 ps or less for angularly close sources. On the 6-km baseline, a fiber-optic link was used to distribute a common frequency reference, enabling coherent operation of the two stations. The observed delay residuals correspond to a differential angular accuracy of about 10 nrad on the 253-km baseline. Future plans are discussed, including the development of a realtime correlation capability on a 22-km baseline at Goldstone, CA.

Edwards, Charles D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

First GPS baseline results from the North Andes

The CASA Uno GPS experiment (January-February 1988) has provided the first epoch baseline measurements for the study of plate motions and crustal deformation in and around the North Andes. Two dimensional horizontal baseline repeatabilities are as good as 5 parts in 10 to the 8th for short baselines (100-1000 km), and better than 3 parts in 10 to the 8th for long baselines (greater than 1000 km). Vertical repeatabilities are typically 4-6 cm, with a weak dependence on baseline length. The expected rate of plate convergence across the Colombia Trench is 6-8cm/yr, which should be detectable by the repeat experiment planned for 1991. Expected deformation rates within the North Andes are of the order of 1 cm/yr, which may be detectable with the 1991 experiment.

Kellogg, James N.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Precise regional baseline estimation using a priori orbital information

A solution using GPS measurements acquired during the CASA Uno campaign has resulted in 3-4 mm horizontal daily baseline repeatability and 13 mm vertical repeatability for a 729 km baseline, located in North America. The agreement with VLBI is at the level of 10-20 mm for all components. The results were obtained with the GIPSY orbit determination and baseline estimation software and are based on five single-day data arcs spanning the 20, 21, 25, 26, and 27 of January, 1988. The estimation strategy included resolving the carrier phase integer ambiguities, utilizing an optial set of fixed reference stations, and constraining GPS orbit parameters by applying a priori information. A multiday GPS orbit and baseline solution has yielded similar 2-4 mm horizontal daily repeatabilities for the same baseline, consistent with the constrained single-day arc solutions. The application of weak constraints to the orbital state for single-day data arcs produces solutions which approach the precise orbits obtained with unconstrained multiday arc solutions.

Lindqwister, Ulf J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Potential of long-baseline infrared interferometry for narrow-angle astrometry

Narrow-angle astrometry has many astrophysical applications, from the measurement of parallaxes to the search for planets around nearby stars. Ground-based long-focus telescopes with photoelectric detectors have achieved accuracies of about 2-3 milliarcsec in 1 h. This accuracy is limited primarily by the atmosphere, and is consistent with models of atmospheric turbulence. However, applying these turbulence models to observations with long-baseline interferometers yields astrometric errors that are far smaller than can be achieved with long-focus telescopes. The predictions for the ultimate accuracy of ground-based narrow-angle astrometry using long-baseline IR (2.2 micron) stellar interferometers are very promising. With the excellent seeing at a high altitude site like Mauna Kea, the atmospheric limit for a 1 h astrometric measurement is expected to be of the order of 10 microarcsec for 1 h of integration. This two-order-of-magnitude improvement over conventional measurements is due to two effects. One is that a long-baseline IR interferometer can find useful reference stars very near an arbitrary target star, so that the atmospherically-induced motions of both stars are highly correlated. The second is that the baseline length can be much larger than the separation of the stellar beams in the turbulent atmosphere, resulting in a reduction in astrometric error with increasing baseline length.

Shao, M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Evaluation of very long baseline interferometry atmospheric modeling improvements

We determine the improvement in baseline length precision and accuracy using new atmospheric delay mapping functions and MTT by analyzing the NASA Crustal Dynamics Project research and development (R&D) experiments and the International Radio Interferometric Surveying (IRIS) A experiments. These mapping functions reduce baseline length scatter by about 20% below that using the CfA2.2 dry and Chao wet mapping functions. With the newer mapping functions, average station vertical scatter inferred from observed length precision (given by length repeatabilites) is 11.4 mm for the 1987-1990 monthly R&D series of experiments and 5.6 mm for the 3-week-long extended research and development experiment (ERDE) series. The inferred monthly R&D station vertical scatter is reduced by 2 mm or by 7 mm is a root-sum-square (rss) sense. Length repeatabilities are optimum when observations below a 7-8 deg elevation cutoff are removed from the geodetic solution. Analyses of IRIS-A data from 1984 through 1991 and the monthly R&D experiments both yielded a nonatmospheric unmodeled station vertical error or about 8 mm. In addition, analysis of the IRIS-A exeriments revealed systematic effects in the evolution of some baseline length measurements. The length rate of change has an apparent acceleration, and the length evolution has a quasi-annual signature. We show that the origin of these effects is unlikely to be related to atmospheric modeling errors. Rates of change of the transatlantic Westford-Wettzell and Richmond-Wettzell baseline lengths calculated from 1988 through 1991 agree with the NUVEL-1 plate motion model (Argus and Gordon, 1991) to within 1 mm/yr. Short-term (less than 90 days) variations of IRIS-A baseline length measurements contribute more than 90% of the observed scatter about a best fit line, and this short-term scatter has large variations on an annual time scale.

Macmillan, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Atmospheric pressure loading parameters from very long baseline interferometry observations

Atmospheric mass loading produces a primarily vertical displacement of the Earth's crust. This displacement is correlated with surface pressure and is large enough to be detected by very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) measurements. Using the measured surface pressure at VLBI stations, we have estimated the atmospheric loading term for each station location directly from VLBI data acquired from 1979 to 1992. Our estimates of the vertical sensitivity to change in pressure range from 0 to -0.6 mm/mbar depending on the station. These estimates agree with inverted barometer model calculations (Manabe et al., 1991; vanDam and Herring, 1994) of the vertical displacement sensitivity computed by convolving actual pressure distributions with loading Green's functions. The pressure sensitivity tends to be smaller for stations near the coast, which is consistent with the inverted barometer hypothesis. Applying this estimated pressure loading correction in standard VLBI geodetic analysis improves the repeatability of estimated lengths of 25 out of 37 baselines that were measured at least 50 times. In a root-sum-square (rss) sense, the improvement generally increases with baseline length at a rate of about 0.3 to 0.6 ppb depending on whether the baseline stations are close to the coast. For the 5998-km baseline from Westford, Massachusetts, to Wettzell, Germany, the rss improvement is about 3.6 mm out of 11.0 mm. The average rss reduction of the vertical scatter for inland stations ranges from 2.7 to 5.4 mm.

Macmillan, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes Over the United States

Extreme climate events are societally harmful and have increased in frequency and intensity in recent decades. Indices based on temperature and precipitation are a valuable way to quantify climate extremes. Certain indices are defined relative to percentiles, which are dependent on a climatological baseline period. In this study, indices computed using temperature and precipitation from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are calculated using percentiles from three baseline periods: 1981–2010, 1991–2020 and 1981–2020. Updating the baseline period from 1981 to 2010 to 1991–2020 leads to significant changes in the quantification of temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States over 1980–2021. Using the later baseline period indicates more cold extremes, fewer warm extremes, and fewer but more intense precipitation extremes throughout the US, with regional variation. Changing the baseline period can mislead the public and decision makers, potentially undermining the appropriate response to climate-related health risks.

Natalie P. Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2016

Updating the U.S. Life Cycle GHG Petroleum Baseline to 2014 with Projections to 2040 Using Open-Source Engineering-Based Models

Here, the National Energy Technology Laboratory produced a well-to-wheels (WTW) life cycle greenhouse gas analysis of petroleum-based fuels consumed in the U.S. in 2005, known as the NETL 2005 Petroleum Baseline. This study uses a set of engineering-based, open-source models combined with publicly available data to calculate baseline results for 2014. An increase between the 2005 baseline and the 2014 results presented here (e.g., 92.4 vs 96.2 g CO 2 e/MJ gasoline, + 4.1%) are due to changes both in modeling platform and in the U.S. petroleum sector. An updated result for 2005 was calculated to minimize the effect of the change in modeling platform, and emissions for gasoline in 2014 were about 2% lower than in 2005 (98.1 vs 96.2 g CO 2 e/MJ gasoline). The same methods were utilized to forecast emissions from fuels out to 2040, indicating maximum changes from the 2014 gasoline result between +2.1% and –1.4%. The changing baseline values lead to potential compliance challenges with frameworks such as the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) Section 526, which states that Federal agencies should not purchase alternative fuels unless their life cycle GHG emissions are less than those of conventionally produced, petroleum-derived fuels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Baselining PMU Data to Find Patterns and Anomalies

This paper looks at the application of situational awareness methodologies with respect to power grid data. These methodologies establish baselines that look for typical patterns and atypical behavior in the data. The objectives of the baselining analyses are to provide: real-time analytics, the capability to look at historical trends and events, and reliable predictions of the near future state of the grid. Multivariate algorithms were created to establish normal baseline behavior and then score each moment in time according to its variance from the baseline. Detailed multivariate analytical techniques are described in this paper that produced ways to identify typical patterns and atypical behavior. In this case, atypical behavior is behavior that is unenvisioned. Visualizations were also produced to help explain the behavior that was identified mathematically. Examples are shown to help describe how to read and interpret the analyses and visualizations. Preliminary work has been performed on PMU data sets from BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) and EI (Eastern Interconnect). Actual results are not fully shown here because of confidentiality issues. Comparisons between atypical events found mathematically and actual events showed that many of the actual events are also atypical events; however there are many atypical events that do not correlate to any actual events. Additional work needs to be done to help classify the atypical events into actual events, so that the importance of the events can be better understood.

Baselining analyses↗