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NASA NTRS2020

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗

NASA NTRS2021

Distinct Surface Response to Black Carbon Aerosols

For the radiative impact of individual climate forcings, most previous studies focused on the global mean values at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), and less attention has been paid to surface processes, especially for black carbon (BC) aerosols. In this study, the surface radiative responses to five different forcing agents were analyzed by using idealized model simulations. Our analyses reveal that for greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and scattering aerosols, the surface temperature changes are mainly dictated by the changes of surface radiative heating, but for BC, surface energy redistribution between different components plays a more crucial role. Globally, when a unit BC forcing is imposed at TOA, the net shortwave radiation at the surface decreases by −5.87±0.67 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 (averaged over global land without Antarctica), which is partially offset by increased downward longwave radiation (2.32±0.38 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 from the warmer atmosphere, causing a net decrease in the incoming downward surface radiation of −3.56±0.60 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 . Despite a reduction in the downward radiation energy, the surface air temperature still increases by 0.25±0.08 K because of less efficient energy dissipation, manifested by reduced surface sensible (−2.88±0.43 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 ) and latent heat flux (−1.54±0.27 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 ), as well as a decrease in Bowen ratio (−0.20±0.07 (W m −2 ) −1 ). Such reductions of turbulent fluxes can be largely explained by enhanced air stability (0.07±0.02 K (W m −2 ) −1 ), measured as the difference of the potential temperature between 925 hPa and surface, and reduced surface wind speed (−0.05±0.01 m s −1 (W m −2 ) −1 ). The enhanced stability is due to the faster atmospheric warming relative to the surface, whereas the reduced wind speed can be partially explained by enhanced stability and reduced Equator-to-pole atmospheric temperature gradient. These rapid adjustments under BC forcing occur in the lower atmosphere and propagate downward to influence the surface energy redistribution and thus surface temperature response, which is not observed under greenhouse gases or scattering aerosols. Our study provides new insights into the impact of absorbing aerosols on surface energy balance and surface temperature response.

radiative impact↗

NASA NTRS2022

Long-Term Variation of Aerosol Optical Properties Associated With Aerosol Types Over East Asia Using AERONET and Satellite (VIIRS, OMI) Data (2012–2019)

We analyzed annual and seasonal frequency in aerosol type over an 8-year period (2012–2019) to identify aerosol parameter trends over four ground sites and country regions in Korea, China, and Japan by using the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), and the satellite-based Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Decreasing trends are shown for aerosol optical depth (AOD), Ångstr¨om exponent (AE), and fine mode fraction (FMF) in all countries. The decreasing trend in these data is considered to be due to a decrease in anthropogenic emissions. For the aerosol type frequency, decreases in the proportions of carbonaceous aerosols (CA) and non-absorbing aerosols (NA) were shown in the ground and satellite data, respectively. At most sites, the fractions of low AOD case (LOW) increased, whereas those of the Black and Brown Carbon (BC + BrC) category decreased. In Seoul, the fraction of LOW increased from 48.9% to 70.0%, and that of BC + BrC decreased continuously from 20.4% to 11.1% during 2012–2019. Beijing, on the other hand, showed decreasing LOW from 83.3% (2012) to 52.0% (2019), and that of BC + BrC increased significantly, from 2.4% to 26.2%. The satellite data showed that the percentage of LOW increased continuously, while that of NA aerosols decreased continuously in East Asia. A noticeable decrease in the fraction of CA was detected in China [21.5% (2013) to 11.2% (2019)]. In all countries, CA and NA aerosols had the greatest effect in winter and summer, respectively. We also detected significant differences between the fractions of NA and BC between the ground and satellite data. Changes in aerosol type and properties were observed concurrently in all ground and satellite data, and changes in aerosol type may explain the increasing and decreasing trends that we recorded for most parameters. Consistent results from both ground and satellite data suggest a steady decreasing in fine aerosol pollution in East Asia.

Sujin Eom↗

NASA NTRS1972

Impulsive model for reactive collisions

A simple classical mechanical model of the reactive scattering of a structureless atom A and a quasi-diatomic BC is developed which takes full advantage of energy, linear and angular momentum conservation relations but introduces a minimum of further assumptions. These are as follows: (1) the vibrational degree of freedom of the reactant (BC) and product (AB) molecules is suppressed, so the change in vibrational energy is simply a parameter; (2) straight-line trajectories are assumed outside of a reaction shell; (3) within this zone, momentum transfer occurs impulsively (essentially instantaneously) following mass transfer; (4) the impulse, which may be either positive or negative, is directed along the BC axis, which may, however, assume all orientations with respect to the incident relative velocity. The model yields differential and total cross sections and product rotational energy distributions for a given collision exoergicity Q, or for any known distribution over Q. Numerical results are presented for several prototype reactions whose dynamics have been well-studied.

Marron, M. T.↗

NASA NTRS1993

3-D viscous flow CFD analysis of the propeller effect on an advanced ducted propeller subsonic inlet

The time-marching Navier-Stokes code PARC3D was used to study the 3D viscous flow associated with an advanced ducted propeller subsonic inlet at take-off operating conditions. At a free stream Mach number of 0.2, experimental data for the inlet-with-propeller test model indicated that the airflow was attached on the cowl windward lip at an angle of attack of 25 deg became unstable at 29 deg, and separated at 30 deg. An experimental study with a similar inlet and without propeller (through-flow) indicated that flow separation occurred at an angle of attack a few degrees below the value observed when the inlet was tested with the propeller, indicating the propeller's favorable effect on inlet performance. In the present numerical study, flow blockage analogous to the propeller was modeled via a PARC3D computational boundary condition (BC), the 'screen BC', based on 1-1/2 dimension actuator disk theory. The application of the screen BC in this numerical study provided results similar to those of past experimental efforts in which either the blockage device or the propeller was used.

Iek, Chanthy↗

NASA NTRS2004

Bulk Comptonization of the Cosmic Microwave Background by Extragalactic Jets as a Probe of their Matter Content

We propose a method for estimating the composition, i.e. the relative amounts of leptons and protons, of extragalactic jets which exhibit Chandra - detected knots in their kpc scale jets. The method relies on measuring, or setting upper limits on, the component of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation that is bulk-Comptonized by the cold electrons in the relativistically flowing jet. These measurements, along with modeling of the broadband knot emission that constrain the bulk Lorentz factor GAMMA of the jets, can yield estimates of the jet power carried by protons and leptons. We provide an explicit calculation of the spectrum of the bulk-Comptonized (BC) CMB component and apply these results to PKS 0637 - 752 and 3C 273, two superluminal quasars with Chandra - detected large scale jets. What makes these sources particularly suited for such a procedure is the absence of significant non-thermal jet emission in the 'bridge', the region between the core and the first bright jet knot, which guarantees that most of the electrons are cold there, leaving the BC scattered CMB radiation as the only significant source of photons in this region. At lambda = 3.6 - 8.0 microns, the most likely band to observe the BC scattered CMB emission, the Spitzer angular resolution (approximately 1" - 3") is considerably smaller than the the 'bridges' of these jets (approximately 10"), making it possible to both measure and resolve this emission.

Georganopoulos, Markos↗

NASA NTRS2005

Electron Tomography of Nanoparticle Clusters: Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes and Radiative Forcing of Soot

Nanoparticles are ubiquitous in nature. Their large surface areas and consequent chemical reactivity typically result in their aggregation into clusters. Their chemical and physical properties depend on cluster shapes, which are commonly complex and unknown. This is the first application of electron tomography with a transmission electron microscope to quantitatively determine the three-dimensional (3D) shapes, volumes, and surface areas of nanoparticle clusters. We use soot (black carbon, BC) nanoparticles as an example because it is a major contributor to environmental degradation and global climate change. To the extent that our samples are representative, we find that quantitative measurements of soot surface areas and volumes derived from electron tomograms differ from geometrically derived values by, respectively, almost one and two orders of magnitude. Global sensitivity studies suggest that the global burden and direct radiative forcing of fractal BC are only about 60% of the value if it is assumed that BC has a spherical shape.

vanPoppel, Laura H.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Radiative Forcing of the Direct Aerosol Effect from AeroCom Phase II Simulations

We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02 W m(sup−2), with a mean of −0.27 W m(sup−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35 W m(sup−2). Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study.We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results

Computer simulation↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Multimodel Assessment of the Influence of Regional Anthropogenic Emission Reductions on Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing and the Role of Intercontinental Transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the Northern Hemisphere by using results from nine global models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). DRF at top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface is estimated based on AOD results from the HTAP models and AOD-normalized DRF (NDRF) from a chemical transport model. The multimodel results show that, on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD (all-sky TOA DRF) by 9.2% (9.0%), 3.5% (3.0%), and 9.4% (10.0%) for sulfate, particulate organic matter (POM), and black carbon (BC), respectively. Global annual average TOA all-sky forcing efficiency relative to particle or gaseous precursor emissions from the four regions (expressed as multimodel mean +/- one standard deviation) is -3.5 +/-0.8, -4.0 +/- 1.7, and 29.5+/-18.1mW / sq m per Tg for sulfate (relative to SO2), POM, and BC, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport (ICT). On an annual basis, ICT accounts for 11 +/- 5% to 31 +/- 9% of AOD and DRF in a receptor region at continental or subcontinental scale, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. For sulfate AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 31 +/- 9% occurs in South Asia, which is dominated by the emissions from Europe. For BC AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 28 +/- 18% occurs in North America, which is dominated by the emissions from East Asia. The large spreads among models highlight the need to improve aerosol processes in models, and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Europe↗

NASA NTRS2014

The GOddard SnoW Impurity Module (GOSWIM) for the NASA GEOS-5 Earth System Model: Preliminary Comparisons with Observations in Sapporo, Japan

The snow darkening module evaluating dust, black carbon, and organic carbon depositions on mass and albedo has been developed for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth System Model, as the GOddard SnoW Impurity Module (GOSWIM). GOSWIM consists of the snow albedo scheme from a previous study (Yasunari et al. 2011) with updates and a newly developed mass concentration scheme, using aerosol depositions from the chemical transport model (GOCART) in GEOS-5. Compared to observations at Sapporo, the numerical experiments, forced by observation-based meteorology and aerosol depositions from GOES-5, better simulated the seasonal migration of snow depth, albedos, and impurities of dust, BC, and OC in the snow surface. However, the magnitude of the impurities is underestimated, compared to the sporadic snow impurity measurements. Increasing the deposition rates of dust and BC could explain the differences on the snow darkening effect between observation and simulation. Ignoring BC deposition can possibly lead to an extension of snow cover duration in Sapporo for four days. Comparing the off-line GOSWIM and the GEOS-5 global simulations, we found that determining better local precipitation and deposition rates of the aerosols are key factors in generating better GOSWIM snow darkening simulation in NASA GEOS-5.

land surface processes↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols: Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing - Part 1

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of −2.0Wm(exp−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0Wm−2), nitrate (−0.2Wm(exp−2), organic carbon (−0.2Wm(exp−2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp−2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp−2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating Model Parameterizations of Submicron Aerosol Scattering and Absorption with in situ Data from ARCTAS 2008

Accurate modeling of the scattering and absorption of ultraviolet and visible radiation by aerosols is essential for accurate simulations of atmospheric chemistry and climate. Closure studies using in situ measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption can be used to evaluate and improve models of aerosol optical properties without interference from model errors in aerosol emissions, transport, chemistry, or deposition rates. Here we evaluate the ability of four externally mixed, fixed size distribution parameterizations used in global models to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption at three wavelengths using in situ data gathered during the 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) campaign. The four models are the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Combo model, GEOS-Chem v9- 02, the baseline configuration of a version of GEOS-Chem with online radiative transfer calculations (called GC-RT), and the Optical Properties of Aerosol and Clouds (OPAC v3.1) package. We also use the ARCTAS data to perform the first evaluation of the ability of the Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP v2.1) to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption when in situ data on the aerosol size distribution are used, and examine the impact of different mixing rules for black carbon (BC) on the results. We find that the GMI model tends to overestimate submicron scattering and absorption at shorter wavelengths by 10-23 percent, and that GMI has smaller absolute mean biases for submicron absorption than OPAC v3.1, GEOS-Chem v9-02, or GC-RT. However, the changes to the density and refractive index of BC in GCRT improve the simulation of submicron aerosol absorption at all wavelengths relative to GEOS-Chem v9-02. Adding a variable size distribution, as in ASP v2.1, improves model performance for scattering but not for absorption, likely due to the assumption in ASP v2.1 that BC is present at a constant mass fraction throughout the aerosol size distribution. Using a core-shell mixing rule in ASP overestimates aerosol absorption, especially for the fresh biomass burning aerosol measured in ARCTAS-B, suggesting the need for modeling the time-varying mixing states of aerosols in future versions of ASP.

Alvarado, Matthew J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Particulate Matter Profiling and Alveolar Deposition from Biomass Burning in Northern Thailand: The 7-SEAS Study

Biomass burning (BB) frequently occurs in SouthEast Asia (SEA), which significantly affects the air quality and could consequently lead to adverse health effects. The aim of this study was to characterize particulate matter (PM) and black carbon (BC) emitted from BB source regions in SEA and their potential of deposition in the alveolar region of human lungs. A 31-day characterization of PM profiling was conducted at the Doi Ang Khang (DAK) meteorology station in northern Thailand in March 2013. Substantial numbers of PM (10147 +/- 5800 # per cubic centimeter) with a geometric mean diameter (GMD) of 114.4 +/- 9.2 nm were found at the study site. The PM of less than 2.5 micron in aerodynamic diameter (PM sub 2.5) hourly-average mass concentration was 78.0 +/- 34.5 per cubic microgram whereas the black carbon (BC) mass concentration was 4.4 +/- 2.6 micrograms per cubic meter. Notably, high concentrations of nanoparticle surface area (100.5 +/- 54.6 square micrometers per cubic centimeter) emitted from biomass burning can be inhaled into the human alveolar region. Significant correlations with fire counts within different ranges around DAK were found for particle number, the surface area concentration of alveolar deposition, and BC. In conclusion, biomass burning is an important PM source in SEA, particularly nanoparticles, which has high potency to be inhaled into the lung environment and interact with alveolar cells, leading to adverse respiratory effects. The fire counts within 100 to 150 km shows the highest Pearson's r for particle number and surface area concentration. It suggests 12 to 24 hr could be a fair time scale for initial aging process of BB aerosols. Importantly, the people lives in this region could have higher risk for PM exposure.

biomass burning↗

NASA NTRS2019

Water Vapour Adjustments and Responses Differ Between Climate Drivers

Water vapour in the atmosphere is the source of a major climate feedback mechanism and potential increases in the availability of water vapour could have important consequences for mean and extreme precipitation. Future precipitation changes further depend on how the hydrological cycle responds to different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. Currently, neither the total anthropogenic influence on the hydrological cycle nor that from individual drivers is constrained sufficiently to make solid projections. We investigate how integrated water vapour (IWV) responds to different drivers of climate change. Results from 11 global climate models have been used, based on simulations where CO2, methane, solar irradiance, black carbon (BC), and sulfate have been perturbed separately. While the global-mean IWV is usually assumed to increase by 7% per kelvin of surface temperature change, we find that the feedback response of IWV differs somewhat between drivers. Fast responses, which include the initial radiative effect and rapid adjustments to an external forcing, amplify these differences. The resulting net changes in IWV range from 6.4±0.9%K(exp -1) for sulfate to 9.8±2%K(exp -1) for BC. We further calculate the relationship between global changes in IWV and precipitation, which can be characterized by quantifying changes in atmospheric water vapour lifetime. Global climate models simulate a substantial increase in the lifetime, from 8.2±0.5 to 9.9±0.7d between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 under a high-emission scenario, and we discuss to what extent the water vapour lifetime provides additional information compared to analysis of IWV and precipitation separately. We conclude that water vapour lifetime changes are an important indicator of changes in precipitation patterns and that BC is particularly efficient in prolonging the mean time, and therefore likely the distance, between evaporation and precipitation.

Hodnebrog, Øivind↗

NASA NTRS2021

Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model

The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60°N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39 ± 0.01 W/sq. m, which is −0.08 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W/sq. m), of which −0.24 ± 0.01 W/sq. m was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W/sq. m for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W/sq. m. The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO2−4 forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for −0.24 to −0.26 W/sq. m of the net RFARI in 2030–2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6 °C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6 °C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990–2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change.

Aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2024

Improved Simulations of Biomass Burning Aerosol Optical Properties and Lifetimes in the NASA GEOS Model during the ORACLES-I Campaign

In order to improve aerosol representation in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, we evaluated simulations of the aerosol properties and transport over the southern African biomass burning source and outflow region using observations made during the first deployment of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) field campaign in September 2016. An example case study of September 24 was analyzed in detail, during which aircraft-based in-situ and remote sensing observations showed the presence of a multi-layered smoke plume structure with significant vertical variation in single scattering albedo (SSA). Our baseline GEOS simulations were not able to represent the observed SSA variation, nor the observed organic aerosol-to-black carbon ratio (OA : BC). Analyzing the simulated smoke age suggests that the higher altitude, less absorbing smoke plume was younger (~4 days), while the lower altitude and more absorbing smoke plume was older (~7 days). We hypothesize a chemical or microphysical loss process exists to explain the change in aerosol absorption as the smoke plume ages, and we apply a simple 6-day e-folding loss rate to the model hydrophilic biomass burning OA to mimic this process. Adding this loss process required some adjustment to the model assumed scaling factors of aerosol emissions to conserve the regional aerosol loading and further improve the simulated OA : BC ratio. Accordingly, we have increased our biomass burning emissions of OA by 60 % and biomass burning BC by 15 %. We also utilized the ORACLES airborne observations to better constrain the simulation of aerosol optical properties, adjusting the assumed particle size, hygroscopic growth, and absorption. Our final GEOS model simulation with additional OA loss and updated optics showed a better performance in simulating AOD and SSA compared to independent ground and space-based retrievals for the entire month of September 2016, including the OMI Aerosol Index. In terms of radiative implications of our model adjustments, the final GEOS simulation suggested a decreased atmospheric warming of about 10 % (~2 W m -2 ) over the south-east Atlantic region and above the stratocumulus cloud decks compared to the model baseline simulations. These results improve the representation of the smoke age, transport, and optical properties in Earth system models.

aerosols↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Insights Into Reconstructing REE Compositions of Melt From Zircon-Melt Partition Coefficients Using Zircon-Hosted Melt Inclusions From the Yellowstone Volcanic Province

Establishing the major and trace element composition of the Earth’s melts (Hadean to recent) is essential for understanding crustal evolution. Due to its physical-chemical resilience, zircon spans the complete age spectra of Earth’s history, and thus provides the only physical record from the early Earth. However, the petrological context i.e., the melt from which zircon crystallised, is often lost, except for inclusions of melt preserved within zircon. Melt inclusions in zircon (MI) provide a valuable tool to constrain zircon-melt REE partition coefficients (D REE ), which are used with the zircon REE chemistry to reconstruct melt compositions. Such reconstruction requires accurate partition coefficients, which are particularly sensitive to temperature, but also to pressure and melt composition. We determined the major and trace element compositions of 60 co-existing zircon-MI pairs from two ~ 2 Ma age rhyolites (the caldera-forming Huckleberry Ridge Tuff; HRT-C and the post-caldera Blue Creek Flow; BC-1) of the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field by EPMA and SIMS, and calculated a set of 60 zircon-MI partition coefficients. The MI from both units are glassy with average silica contents of 78.30 ± 0.74 and 77.19 ± 1.11 wt %, and Ti-in-zircon crystallisation temperatures are 839 ± 36 and 835 ± 35 oC. Measured D REE patterns for each population (n = 30) are tightly constrained and exhibit a smooth pattern spanning ~ six orders of magnitude from La to Lu, (with exceptions at Ce and Eu), and for the HRT exhibit greater curvature (i.e., flatter) between the MREE to HREE compared to the BC-1. D REE patterns for the HRT have small to moderate Ce anomalies (Ce/Ce* Di 50 ± 40), whereas those in the BC-1 are larger (98 ± 45), and both units exhibit negligible to positive Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* Di 1.07 ± 0.89 and 1.80 ± 2.01, respectively). We compare the trace element compositions of the MI to bulk-glass compositions from Yellowstone to assess any differences, which are small, then compare the measured MI compositions to those reconstructed using published partition coefficients (natural, empirical and experimental). The choice of D REE for reconstruction of the melt REE pattern results in differing petrogenetic interpretations.

Laura J. Crisp↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of CMIP6 Model Simulations of PM 2.5 and its Components Over China

Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulate various components of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) as major climate forcers. Yet the model performance for PM 2.5 components remains little evaluated due in part to a lack of observational data. Here, we evaluate near-surface concentrations of PM 2.5 and its five main components over China as simulated by 14 CMIP6 models, including organic carbon (OC; available in 14 models), black carbon (BC; 14 models), sulfate (14 models), nitrate (4 models), and ammonium (5 models). For this purpose, we collect observational data between 2000 and 2014 from a satellite-based dataset for total PM2.5 and from 2469 measurement records in the literature for PM 2.5 components. Seven models output total PM 2.5 concentrations, and they all underestimate the observed total PM 2.5 over eastern China, with GFDL-ESM4 (−1.5 %) and MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM (−1.1 %) exhibiting the smallest biases averaged over the whole country. The other seven models, for which we recalculate total PM 2.5 from the available component output, underestimate the total PM 2.5 concentrations partly because of the missing model representations of nitrate and ammonium. Concentrations of the five individual components are underestimated in almost all models, except that sulfate is overestimated in MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM by 12.6 % and in MRI-ESM2-0 by 24.5 %. The underestimation is the largest for OC (by −71.2 % to −37.8 % across the 14 models) and the smallest for BC (−47.9 % to −12.1 %). The multi-model mean (MMM) reproduces the observed spatial pattern for OC (R = 0.51), sulfate (R = 0.57), nitrate (R = 0.70) and ammonium (R = 0.74) fairly well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC (R = 0.39). The varying performances of ESMs on total PM 2.5 and its components have important implications for the modeled magnitude and spatial pattern of aerosol radiative forcing.

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