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At least 73 records · Page 4

Direct Measurements of Interplanetary Dust Particles in the Vicinity of Earth

The direct measurements made by the Explorer VIII satellite provide the first sound basis for analyzing all available direct measurements of the distribution of interplanetary dust particles. The model average distribution curve established by such an analysis departs significantly from that predicted by the (uncertain) extrapolation of results from meteor observations. A consequence of this difference is that the daily accretion of interplanetary particulate matter by the earth is now considered to be mainly dust particles of the direct measurements range of particle size. Almost all the available direct measurements obtained with microphone systems on rockets, satellites, and spacecraft fit directly on the distribution curve defined by Explorer VIII data. The lack of reliable datum points departing significantly from the model average distribution curve means that available direct measurements show no discernible evidence of an appreciable geocentric concentration of interplanetary dust particles.

McCracken, C. W.↗

Extracting the Pion Distribution Amplitude from Lattice QCD through Pseudo-Distributions

The Light-Cone Distribution Amplitude (LCDA) encodes the non-perturbative information of the leading Fock component of the hadron wave function, therefore required for processes including exclusive hadron production. As the Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson of QCD, the nonperturbative structure of the pion is of particular interest. Progress on the Lattice QCD calculation of the pion LCDA on O(a) -improved Wilson fermion ensembles at several lattice spacings is presented. Excited-state systematics are taken into account within a Bayesian Model Averaging framework. A Renormalization-Group-Invariant (RGI) ratio of matrix elements is formed for further extraction of the pion LCDA.

Kovner, Daniel↗

Remote Sensing of Evapotranspiration over the Central Arizona Irrigation and Drainage District, USA

Knowledge of baseline water use for irrigated crops in the U.S. Southwest is important for understanding how much water is consumed under normal farm management and to help manage scarce resources. Remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET) is an effective way to gain that knowledge: multispectral data can provide synoptic and time-repetitive estimates of crop-specific water use, and could be especially useful for this arid region because of dominantly clear skies and minimal precipitation. Although multiple remote sensing ET approaches have been developed and tested, there is not consensus on which of them should be preferred because there are still few intercomparison studies within this environment. To help build the experience needed to gain consensus, a remote sensing study using three ET models was conducted over the Central Arizona Irrigation and Drainage District (CAIDD). Aggregated ET was assessed for 137 wheat plots (winter/spring crop), 183 cotton plots (summer crop), and 225 alfalfa plots (year-round). The employed models were the Satellite-Based Energy Balance for Mapping Evapotranspiration with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), the Two Source Energy Balance (TSEB), and Vegetation Index ET for the US Southwest (VISW). Remote sensing data were principally Landsat 5, supplemented by Landsat 7, MODIS Terra, MODIS Aqua, and ASTER. Using district-wide model averages, seasonal use (excluding surface evaporation) was 742 mm (millimeters) for wheat, 983 mm for cotton, and 1427 mm for alfalfa. All three models produced similar daily ET for wheat, with 6-8 mm per day mid-season. Model estimates diverged for cotton and alfalfa sites. Considering ET over cotton, TSEB estimates were 9.5 mm per day, METRIC 6 mm per day, and VISW 8 mm per day. For alfalfa, the ET values from TSEB were 8.0 mm per day, METRIC 5 mm per day, and VISW 6 mm per day. Lack of local validation information unfortunately made it impossible to rank model performance. However, by averaging results from all of them, ET model outliers could be identified. They ranged from minus 10 percent to plus 18 percent, values that represent expected ET modeling discrepancies. Relative to the model average, standardized ET-estimators - potential ET (ET (sub 0)), FAO-56 ET, and USDA-SW gravimetric-ET - showed still greater deviations, up to 35 percent of annual crop water use for summer and year-round crops, suggesting that remote sensing of actual ET could lead to significantly improved estimates of crop water use. Results from this study highlight the need for conducting multi-model experiments during summer-months over sites with independent ground validation.

Alfalfa↗

Polyethylene Blends for Improved Oxygen Barrier: Processing-Dependent Microstructure and Gas Permeability

Here this work demonstrates a greater than expected enhancement of oxygen barrier properties in linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE)-based materials by blending LLDPE with high-density polyethylene (HDPE). The films made by melt pressing the LLDPE/HDPE blends had a greater reduction in oxygen permeability coefficients (PO 2 ) than predicted using common permeability reduction models, i.e., the harmonic average model and zero-permeability nanofiller model. The reduction of PO 2 was attributed to the presence of spherulite crystal structures, as revealed by atomic force microscopy combined with infrared spectroscopy (AFM-IR). The LLDPE matrix exhibited significant spherulite formation even at a relatively low addition of HDPEs, which likely formed tortuous pathways for diffusing oxygen molecules. Transport results from melt-pressed films contrast with the results from films with similar compositions prepared by film blowing, which did not show barrier enhancement beyond expectation. AFM-IR revealed that the blown films lacked spherulite crystals likely due to stretching in the machine direction followed by rapid cooling. These findings demonstrate the role of processing in controlling microstructures and thus the oxygen barrier performance. This work offers the possibility of achieving easily recyclable LLDPE-based packaging materials by simple blending of polyethylenes with different crystalline content.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimal perturbation models for averaged orbit generation

Averaging techniques applied to the variation of parameters (VOP) formulation of the equations of motion are being investigated as methods for long-term prediction of artificial satellite orbits. Analytically averaged equations were compared with numerically averaged equations with respect to accuracy and efficiency for computation of zonal and nonresonant third-body perturbations. Numerically averaged equations were also evaluated for computation of long-period effects from resonant third-body, tesseral harmonic, and atmospheric drag perturbations. Guidelines will be presented for application of averaged VOP equations to a broad class of orbits.

Long, A. C.↗

Investigation of the validity of Reynolds averaged turbulence models at the frequencies that occur in turbomachinery

Turbulent flows subjected to various kinds of unsteady disturbances were simulated using a large-eddy-simulation computer code for flow in a channel. The disturbances were: a normal velocity expressed as a traveling wave on one wall of the channel; staggered blowing and suction distributions on the opposite walls of the channel; and oscillations of the mean flow through the channel. The wall boundary conditions were designed to simulate the effects of wakes of a stator stage passing through a rotor channel in a turbine. The oscillating flow simulated the effects of a pressure pulse moving over the rotor blade boundary layer. The objective of the simulations was to provide better understanding of the effects of time-dependent disturbances on the turbulence of a boundary layer and of the underlying physical phenomena regarding the basic interaction between the turbulence and external disturbances of the type found in turbomachinery. Results showed that turbulence is sensitive to certain ranges of frequencies of disturbances. However, no direct connection was found between the frequency of imposed disturbances and characteristic burst frequency of turbulence. New insight into the nature of turbulence at high frequencies was found. The viscous phenomena near solid walls was found to be the dominant influence for high frequency perturbations. At high frequencies, the turbulence was found to be undisturbed, remaining the same as for the steady mean flow. A transition range exists between the high frequency range and the low, or quasi-steady, range in which the turbulence is not predictable by either quasi-steady models or the steady flow model. The limiting lowest frequency for use of the steady flow turbulence model is that for which the viscous Stokes layer based on the blade passing frequency is thicker than the laminar sublayer.

Kuhn, Gary D.↗

Performance of a Bounce-Averaged Global Model of Super-Thermal Electron Transport in the Earth's Magnetic Field

In this paper, we report the results of our recent research on the application of a multiprocessor Cray T916 supercomputer in modeling super-thermal electron transport in the earth's magnetic field. In general, this mathematical model requires numerical solution of a system of partial differential equations. The code we use for this model is moderately vectorized. By using Amdahl's Law for vector processors, it can be verified that the code is about 60% vectorized on a Cray computer. Speedup factors on the order of 2.5 were obtained compared to the unvectorized code. In the following sections, we discuss the methodology of improving the code. In addition to our goal of optimizing the code for solution on the Cray computer, we had the goal of scalability in mind. Scalability combines the concepts of portabilty with near-linear speedup. Specifically, a scalable program is one whose performance is portable across many different architectures with differing numbers of processors for many different problem sizes. Though we have access to a Cray at this time, the goal was to also have code which would run well on a variety of architectures.

McGuire, Tim↗

Developing an Aircraft-Based Angular Distribution Model of Solar Reflection from Wildfire Smoke to Aid Satellite-Based Radiative Flux Estimation

This study examines the angular distribution of scattered solar radiation associated with wildfire smoke aerosols observed over boreal forests in Canada during the ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) campaign. First, it estimates smoke radiative parameters (550 nm optical depth of 3.9 and single scattering albedo of 0.90) using quasi-simultaneous multiangular and multispectral airborne measurements by the Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR). Next, the paper estimates the broadband top-of-atmosphere radiances that a satellite instrument such as the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) could have observed, given the narrowband CAR measurements made from an aircraft circling about a kilometer above the smoke layer. This estimation includes both an atmospheric correction that accounts for the atmosphere above the aircraft and a narrowband-to-broadband conversion. The angular distribution of estimated radiances is found to be substantially different than the angular model used in the operational data processing of CERES observations over the same area. This is because the CERES model is a monthly average model that was constructed using observations taken under smoke-free conditions. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that the estimated angular distribution remains accurate for a fairly wide range of smoke and underlying surface parameters. Overall, results from this work suggest that airborne CAR measurements can bring some substantial improvements in the accuracy of satellite-based radiative flux estimates.

Varnai, Tamas↗

Accounting for uncertainty in complex alluvial aquifer modeling by Bayesian multi-model approach

Alluvial aquifers by nature are complex caused by varied depositional environments. Developing a reliable groundwater model to represent an alluvial aquifer is non-trivial. Also, relying on a single best calibrated model may not be sufficient because of an inadequate choice of model parameter values. To better understand groundwater dynamics and improve model prediction reliability, this study presents a Bayesian multi-model uncertainty quantification (BMMUQ) framework to account for model parameter uncertainty in complex alluvial groundwater modeling. The methodology was applied to the agriculturally intensive Mississippi River alluvial aquifer (MRAA), Northeast Louisiana. An aquifer architecture was first constructed using 7,259 well logs in the MRAA area which covers three fluvial deposits (alluvium, braided-stream terrace, and braided-stream terrace-loess). A 12-layer MODFLOW model was then developed to address the alluvial aquifer complexity and well calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This study quantified model parameter uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand facies. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was adopted to derive posterior model weights and head variances of 50 alternative conceptual groundwater flow models, and thereby obtains BMA ensemble model predictions instead of only relying on the best calibrated conceptual model. Overall, results show that an estimated around 950 million m3 of groundwater storage loss occurs in 2015 with respect to the beginning of 2004, due to high groundwater demand for irrigation in the MRAA area. Explicitly quantifying model uncertainty can produce more reliable groundwater level predictions from BMA ensemble model. The presented groundwater modeling framework improves our understanding of the MRAA and provides a valuable tool to assist agricultural water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Photochemistry Saturn's Atmosphere: Effects of an Influx of External Oxygen - 2

We use a one-dimensional diurnally averaged model of photochemistry and diffusion in Saturn's stratosphere to investigate the influence of extraplanetary debris on atmospheric chemistry. In particular, we consider the effects of an influx of oxygen from micrometeoroid ablation or from ring-particle diffusion; the contribution from cometary impacts, satellite debris, or ring vapor is deemed to be less important. The photochemical model results are compared directly with Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) observations to constrain the influx of extraplanetary oxygen to Saturn. From the ISO observations, we determine that the column densities of CO2 and H2O above 10 mbar in Saturn's atmosphere are (6.3 +/- 1) x 10(exp 14) and (1.4 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 15)/ square cm, respectively; our models indicate that a globally averaged oxygen influx of (4+/-2) x 10(exp 6) O atoms /sq cm/s is required to explain these observations. Models with a locally enhanced influx of H20 operating over a small fraction of the projected area do not provide as good a fit to the ISO H2O observations. If volatile oxygen compounds comprise one-third to one-half of the exogenic source by mass, then Saturn is currently being bombarded with (3 +/- 2) x 10(exp -16) g/square cm/s of extraplanetary material. To reproduce the observed CO2/H2O ratio in Saturn's stratosphere, some of the exogenic oxygen must arrive in the form of a carbon-oxygen bonded species such as CO or CO2. An influx consistent with the composition of cometary ices fails to reproduce the high observed CO2/H2O ratio, suggesting that (i) the material has ices that are slightly more carbon-rich than is typical for comets, (ii) a contribution from an organic-rich component is required, or (iii) some of the hydrogen-oxygen bonded material is converted to carbon-oxygen bonded material without photochemistry (e.g., during the ablation process). We have also reanalyzed the 5-micron CO observations of Noll and Larson and determine that the CO lines are most sensitive to the 100- to 400-mbar column density for which we derive a range of (0.7-1.5) x 10(exp 17)/square cm; the CO observations do not allow us to distinguish between an external or internal source of CO on Saturn. If we assume that all the extraplanetary oxygen derives from a micrometeoroid source, then the unfocused dust flux at 9.5 AU must be (i) (1 +/- 0.7) x 10(exp -16) g/square cm/s if interstellar grains are the source of the external oxygen on Saturn, (ii) (4 +/- 3) x 10 (exp -17) g/ sq. cm./s if IDPs on randomly inclined, highly eccentric orbits (e.g., Halley-type comet grains) are the source of the external oxygen, or (iii) (2+/- 1.4) x 10(exp -18)/g/sq cm/s if IDPs on low inclination, low eccentricity orbits (e.g., Kuiper-belt grains) are the source of the external oxygen. These estimates can be used in combination with future Cassini dust detection data to determine the ultimate source of the dust at Saturn's distance from the Sun.

Moses, Julianne I.↗

Beyond the proton drip line: Bayesian analysis of proton-emitting nuclei

The limits of the nuclear landscape are determined by nuclear binding energies. Beyond the proton drip lines, where the separation energy becomes negative, there is not enough binding energy to prevent protons from escaping the nucleus. Predicting properties of unstable nuclear states in the vast territory of proton emitters poses an appreciable challenge for nuclear theory as it often involves far extrapolations. In addition, significant discrepancies between nuclear models in the proton-rich territory call for quantified predictions. With the help of Bayesian methodology, we mix a family of nuclear mass models corrected with statistical emulators trained on the experimental mass measurements, in the proton-rich region of the nuclear chart. Separation energies were computed within nuclear density functional theory using several Skyrme and Gogny energy density functionals. We also considered mass predictions based on two models used in astrophysical studies. Quantified predictions were obtained for each model using Bayesian Gaussian processes trained on separation-energy residuals and combined via Bayesian model averaging. Here, we obtained a good agreement between averaged predictions of statistically corrected models and experiment. In particular, we quantified model results for one- and two-proton separation energies and derived probabilities of proton emission. This information enabled us to produce a quantified landscape of proton-rich nuclei. The most promising candidates for two-proton decay studies have been identified. Finally, the methodology used in this work has broad applications to model-based extrapolations of various nuclear observables. It also provides a reliable uncertainty quantification of theoretical predictions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Higher level simulations of turbulent flows

The fundamentals of large eddy simulation are considered and various approaches to this simulation are compared. The subgrid model required by large eddy simulation is discussed as well as the use of this type of simulation in the development of models for the Reynolds-averaged equations and the application of direct simulation to the testing of both subgrid scale and Reynolds-averaged models. Numerical methods used in large eddy and direct simulation are described with emphasis on special purpose methods. Topics covered include the simulation of homogeneous flow, free shear flows, the mixing layer, wakes, and wall-bounded flows including channel flow and the boundary layer. Applications of large eddy simulation in the laboratory as in meteorological and other environmental flows are examined. Directions in which the work is proceeding and what can be expected from higher levels simulated on are examined.

Ferziger, J. H.↗

Forecasting Global Fire Emissions on Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Time Scales

Fire emissions of gases and aerosols alter atmospheric composition and have substantial impacts on climate, ecosystem function, and human health. Warming climate and human expansion in fire‐prone landscapes exacerbate fire impacts and call for more effective management tools. Here we developed a global fire forecasting system that predicts monthly emissions using past fire data and climate variables for lead times of 1 to 6 months. Using monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) as the prediction target, we fit a statistical time series model, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX), in over 1,300 different fire regions. Optimized parameters were then used to forecast future emissions. The forecast system took into account information about region‐specific seasonality, long‐term trends, recent fire observations, and climate drivers representing both large‐scale climate variability and local fire weather. We cross‐validated the forecast skill of the system with different combinations of predictors and forecast lead times. The reference model, which combined endogenous and exogenous predictors with a 1 month forecast lead time, explained 52% of the variability in the global fire emissions anomaly, considerably exceeding the performance of a reference model that assumed persistent emissions during the forecast period. The system also successfully resolved detailed spatial patterns of fire emissions anomalies in regions with significant fire activity. This study bridges the gap between the efforts of near‐real‐time fire forecasts and seasonal fire outlooks and represents a step toward establishing an operational global fire, smoke, and carbon cycle forecasting system.

vapor pressure↗