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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

The 1996-2002 Plunge in the North-Atlantic Oscillation Index Produces Cold Spring Temperatures in Central Europe

Surface-air temperatures in winter and spring in central Europe rose over the second half of the 20th century, reported for different data-spans, and by different approaches (Ross et al., 1996; Angell, 1999; Hansen et al., 1999; Demaree et al., 2002). Analysis with a finer temporal resolution shows that late-winter and early-spring (February and March) trends are much stronger than the 3-month season averages (Otterman et al., 2002a). Responding to this need for finer than 3- month resolution, observations at meteorological stations in central Europe are analyzed here for the years 1951-2002, computing six-pentad (5-day period) averages (effectively monthly averages for January, February, and March). The daily minimum surface-air temperature, T(sub min), and the daily maximum temperature, T(sub max), rose steeply in Berlin and Poznan' in the years 1951-1995. Based on sensitivity studies, the bulk of this sharp warming is due to stronger southwesterlies over the North Atlantic, with which the temperatures in Europe are strongly correlated (Otterman et al., 1999; 2002a). However, for the most recent seven years, a pronounced downturn of the warming is observed, which we attribute to the concurrent, 1996-2002, sharp downturn of the ocean-surface southwesterlies over the North Atlantic (Otterman et al., 2002b). Such changes in the ocean winds and variations in the storm tracks are associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO (Rogers, 1997). The NAO index, the difference in the surface pressure between Iceland and Azores, constitutes a measure of the zonal winds over the eastern North Atlantic, and thus is a critically important factor influencing the flow of maritime air into Europe (but the temperature of the advected airmasses depends on the meridional component, as we discuss). The recent (1996-2002) downturn in this index resulted in much colder spring temperatures in Europe, with adverse significance for the growing season.

Atlas, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2005

Aerobic Anoxygenic Phototrophic Bacteria in the Mid-Atlantic Bight and the North Pacific Gyre

The abundance of aerobic anoxygenic phototrophic (AM) bacteria, cyanobacteria and heterotrophs was examined in the Mid-Atlantic Bight and the central North Pacific gyre using infrared fluorescence microscopy coupled with image analysis and flow cytometry. AAP bacteria comprised 5% to 16% of total prokaryotes in the Atlantic but only 5% or less in the Pacific. In the Atlantic, AAP bacterial abundance was as much as 2-fold higher than Prochlorococcus and 10-folder higher than Synechococcus. In contrast, Prochlorococcus outnumbered AAP bacteria 5- to 50-fold in the Pacific. In both oceans, subsurface abundance maxima occurred within the photic zone, and AAP bacteria were least abundant below the 1% light depth. Concentrations of bacteriochlorophyll a (BChl a) were low (approx.1%) compared to chlorophyll a. Although the BChl a content of AAP bacteria per cell was typically 20- to 250-fold lower than the divinyl-chlorophyll a content of Prochlorococcus, in shelf break water the pigment content of AAP bacteria approached that of Prochlorococcus. The abundance of AAP bacteria rivaled some groups of strictly heterotrophic bacteria and was often higher than the abundance of known AAP genera (Erythrobacter and Roseobacter spp.). The distribution of AAP bacteria in the water column, which was similar in the Atlantic and the Pacific, was consistent with phototrophy.

Cottrell, Matthew T.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Cooling of the North Atlantic by Saharan Dust

Using aerosol optical depth, sea surface temperature, top-of-the-atmosphere solar radiation flux, and oceanic mixed-layer depth from diverse data sources that include NASA satellites, NCEP reanalysis, in situ observations, as well as long-term dust records from Barbados, we examine the possible relationships between Saharan dust and Atlantic sea surface temperature. Results show that the estimated anomalous cooling pattern of the Atlantic during June 2006 relative to June 2005 due to attenuation of surface solar radiation by Saharan dust remarkably resemble observations, accounting for approximately 30-40% of the observed change in sea surface temperature. Historical data analysis show that there is a robust negative correlation between atmospheric dust loading and Atlantic SST consistent with the notion that increased (decreased) Saharan dust is associated with cooling (warming) of the Atlantic during the early hurricane season (July- August-September).

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Ocean Variability

Based on the 20th century atmospheric reanalysis, winters with more frequent blocking, in a band of blocked latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean, in-phase with Atlantic multi-decadal ocean variability. Atmospheric blocking over the northern North Atlantic, which involves isolation of large regions of air from the westerly circulation for 5 days or more, influences fundamentally the ocean circulation and upper ocean properties by impacting wind patterns. Winters with clusters of more frequent blocking between Greenland and western Europe correspond to a warmer, more saline subpolar ocean. The correspondence between blocked westerly winds and warm ocean holds in recent decadal episodes (especially, 1996-2010). It also describes much longer-timescale Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV), including the extreme, pre-greenhouse-gas, northern warming of the 1930s-1960s. The space-time structure of the wind forcing associated with a blocked regime leads to weaker ocean gyres and weaker heat-exchange, both of which contribute to the warm phase of AMV.

Haekkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Role of African Easterly Wave on Dust Transport and the Interaction Between Saharan Dust Layer and Atlantic ITCZ During Boreal Summer

Saharan dust outbreaks not only transport large amount of dust to the northern Atlantic Ocean, but also alter African easterly jet and wave activities along the jet by changing north-south temperature gradient. Recent modeling and observational studies show that during periods of enhance outbreaks, rainfall on the northern part of ITCZ increases in conjunction with a northward shift of ITCZ toward the dust layer. In this paper, we study the radiative forcing of Saharan dust and its interactions with the Atlantic Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), through African easterly waves (AEW), African easterly jet (AEJ), using the Terra/Aqua observations as well as MERRA data. Using band pass filtered EOF analysis, we find that African easterly waves propagating westward along two principal tracks, centered at 15-25N and 5-10N respectively. The easterly waves in the northern track are slower, with propagation speed of 9 ms-1, and highly correlated with major dust outbreak over North Africa. On the other hand, easterly waves along the southern track are faster with propagating speed of 10 ms-1, and are closely tied to rainfall/cloud variations along the Atlantic ITCZ. Dust transport along the southern track leads rainfall/cloud anomalies in the same region by one or two days, suggesting the southern tracks of dust outbreak are regions of strong interaction between Saharan dust layer and Atlantic ITCZ. Possible linkage between two tracks of easterly waves, as well as the long-term change of easterly wave activities and dust outbreaks, are also discussed.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗
NASA NTRS2012

Coherent Multidecadal Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability in the North Atlantic: Blocking Corresponds with Warm Subpolar Ocean

Winters with frequent atmospheric blocking, in a band of latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean. This is evident in atmospheric reanalysis data, both modern and for the full 20th century. Blocking is approximately in phase with Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV). Wintertime atmospheric blocking involves a highly distorted jetstream, isolating large regions of air from the westerly circulation. It influences the ocean through windstress-curl and associated air/sea heat flux. While blocking is a relatively high-frequency phenomenon, it is strongly modulated over decadal timescales. The blocked regime (weaker ocean gyres, weaker air-sea heat flux, paradoxically increased transport of warm subtropical waters poleward) contributes to the warm phase of AMV. Atmospheric blocking better describes the early 20thC warming and 1996-2010 warm period than does the NAO index. It has roots in the hemispheric circulation and jet stream dynamics. Subpolar Atlantic variability covaries with distant AMOC fields: both these connections may express the global influence of the subpolar North Atlantic ocean on the global climate system.

Hakkinen, Sirpa M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

Chang, C.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic

Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tropical Atlantic Dust and Smoke Aerosol Variabilities Related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in MODIS and MISR Observations

In this study, MODIS fine mode fraction and MISR non-spherical fraction are 2used to derive dust and smoke AOT components (tau(sub dust) and tau(sub smoke)) over the tropical Atlantic, and their variabilities related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are then investigated. Both MODIS and MISR show a very similar dust and smoke winter climatology. tau(sub dust) is found to be the dominant aerosol component over the tropical Atlantic while tau(sub smoke) is significantly smaller than tau(sub dust). The daily MODIS and MISR tau(sub dust) are overall highly correlated, with the correlation coefficients typically about 0.7 over the North Atlantic. The consistency between the MODIS and MISR dust and smoke aerosol climatology and daily variations give us confidence to use these two data sets to investigate their relative contributions to the total AOT variation associated with the MJO. However, unlike the MISR dust discrimination, which is based on particle shape retrievals, the smoke discrimination is less certain, based on assumed partitioning of maritime aerosol for both MISR and MODIS. The temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the tau(sub dust) anomalies associated with the MJO are consistent between MODIS and MISR. The tau(sub dust) anomalies are very similar to those of tau anomalies, and are of comparable magnitude. In contrast, the MJO-related tau(sub smoke) anomalies are rather small, and the tau(sub mar) anomalies are negligible. The consistency between the MODIS and MISR results suggests that dust aerosol is the dominant component on the intra-seasonal time scale over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Guo, Yanjuan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed ( ) and average lowest pressure ( ); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal ( ) and west longitudinal ( ) positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index ( ); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy ( ); (7) sum and average number of storm days ( ); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of several climatic factors, including the (1) oceanic Nino index ( ); (2) Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation ( ) index; (3) Atlantic meridional mode ( ) index; (4) global land-ocean temperature index ( ); and (5) quasi-biennial oscillation ( ) index. Lastly, the associational aspects (using both linear and nonparametric statistical tests) between selected tropical cyclone parameters and the climatic factors are examined based on their 10-year moving average trend values.

satellite↗
NASA NTRS2017

Observations of Aerosol-Radiation-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: First Results from the ORACLES Deployments in 2016 and 2017

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earths biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The SE Atlantic stratocumulus deck interacts with the dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and often mix into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects, and their global representation in climate models remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for regional and global climate change predictions.The low-level clouds in the SE Atlantic have limited vertical extent and therefore present favorable conditions for their exploration with remote sensing. On the other hand, the normal coexistence of BB aerosols and Sc clouds in the same scene also presents significant challenges to conventional remote sensing techniques. We describe first results from NASAs airborne ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols Above Clouds and Their IntEractionS) deployments in September 2016 and August 2017. We emphasize the unique role of polarimetric observations by two instruments, the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) and the Airborne Multi-angle SpectroPolarimeter Imager (AirMSPI), and describe how these instruments help address specific ORACLES science objectives. Initial assessments of polarimetric observation accuracy for key cloud and aerosol properties will be presented, in as far as the preliminary nature of measurements permits.

Redemann, Jens↗
NASA NTRS2014

Benefits Analysis of Wind-Optimal Operations For Trans-Atlantic Flights

North Atlantic Tracks are trans-Atlantic routes across the busiest oceanic airspace in the world. This study analyzes and compares current flight-plan routes to wind-optimal routes for trans-Atlantic flights in terms of aircraft fuel burn, emissions and the associated climate impact. The historical flight track data recorded by EUROCONTROL's Central Flow Management Unit is merged with data from FAA's Enhanced Traffic Management System to provide an accurate flight movement database containing the highest available flight path resolution in both systems. The combined database is adopted for airspace simulation integrated with aircraft fuel burn and emissions models, contrail models, simplified climate response models, and a common climate metric to assess the climate impact of flight routes within the Organized Track System (OTS). The fuel burn and emissions for the tracks in the OTS are compared with the corresponding quantities for the wind-optimized routes to evaluate the potential environmental benefits of flying wind-optimal routes in North Atlantic Airspace. The potential fuel savings and reduction in emissions depend on existing inefficiencies in current flight plans, atmospheric conditions and location of the city-pairs. The potential benefits are scaled by comparing them with actual flight tests that have been conducted since 2010 between a few city-pairs in the transatlantic and trans-pacific region to improve fuel consumption and reduce the environmental impact of aviation.

air traffic optimization↗
NASA NTRS2019

How Well Does NASA GEOS Model Perform in Simulating Dust Deposition into the Tropical Atlantic Ocean?

Massive dust emitted from North Africa can transport long distances across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, reaching the Americas. Dust deposition along the transit adds microorganisms and essential nutrients to marine ecosystem, which has important implications for biogeochemical cycle and climate. However, assessing the dust-ecosystemclimate interactions has been hindered in part by the paucity of dust deposition measurements and large uncertainties associated with oversimplified representations of dust processes in current models. We have recently produced a unique dataset of seasonal dust deposition flux and dust loss frequency into the tropical Atlantic Ocean at a nominal resolution of 200 km x 500 km by using the decade-long (2007-2016) record of aerosol three-dimensional distribution from four satellite sensors, namely CALIOP, MODIS, MISR, and IASI. On the basis of the ten-year average, the yearly dust deposition into the tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated at 98-153 Tg. The dust deposition shows large spatial and temporal (on seasonal and interannual scale) variability. The satellite observations also yield an estimate of annual mean dust loss frequency of 0.052 ~ 0.078 d-1, a useful diagnostic that makes it possible to disentangle the dust transport and removal processes from the dust emissions when identifying the major factors contributing to the uncertainties and biases in the model simulated dust deposition. In this study, we use the dataset along with in situ and remote sensing observations to assess how well NASA GEOS model performs in simulating trans-Atlantic dust transport and deposition. We found that the GEOS modeling of dust deposition falls within the range of satellite-based estimates. However, this reasonable agreement in dust deposition is a compensation of the model's underestimate of dust emissions and overestimate of dust removal efficiency. Further, the overestimate of dust removal efficiency results largely from the model's overestimate of rainfall rate. Our results provide insights into the model's deficiencies at process level, which could better guide model improvements.

Yu, Hongbin↗
NASA NTRS2020

Radiative Heating Rate Profiles over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 Biomass Burning Seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the First Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96 °S, 14.35 °W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign, alongside aerosol optical properties from MERRA-2 as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model, profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model. Idealized experiments using the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single scattering albedo demonstrate that shortwave heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K per day depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single scattering albedo assumptions in models.

Allison B. Marquardt Collow↗
NASA NTRS2019

Industrial-Era Decline in Subarctic Atlantic Productivity

Marine phytoplankton play a critical role in modulating marine-based food webs, fishery yields, and the global drawdown of atmospheric CO2. Due to sparse measurements prior to 21st century satellite monitoring, however, little is known of the long-term response of planktonic stocks to climate forcing. Here we produce the first continuous, multi-century record of subarctic Atlantic marine productivity, showing a marked 10 ± 7% decline has occurred across this highly-productive ocean basin over the last two centuries. We support this conclusion through the application of a novel marine-productivity proxy, established using a unique signal of planktonic-derived aerosol commonly identified across an array of Greenlandic ice cores. Utilizing contemporaneous satellite-era observations, we demonstrate this signal’s use as a robust and high-resolution proxy for spatially-integrated marine productivity variations. We show that the initiation of declining subarctic Atlantic productivity broadly coincides with the onset of Arctic surface warming, and that productivity strongly covaries with regional sea-surface temperatures and basin-wide gyre circulation strength over recent decades. Taken together, our results suggest the industrial era productivity decline may be evidence of the predicted5 collapse of northern Atlantic planktonic stocks in response to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Continued AMOC weakening, as projected for the 21st century, may therefore result in further productivity declines across this globally-relevant region.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS2013

Model Sensitivity to North Atlantic Freshwater Forcing at 8.2 Ka

We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10-25%in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of approx.150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

simulation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coupled Stratospheric Ozone and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Feedbacks on the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Jet Response to 4xCO(2)

Stratospheric ozone, and its response to anthropogenic forcings, provide an important pathway for the coupling between atmospheric composition and climate. In addition to stratospheric ozone’s radiative impacts, recent studies have shown that changes in the ozone layer due to 4xCO2 have a considerable impact on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropospheric circulation inducing an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet during boreal winter. Here we show that this equatorward jet shift can induce a more rapid weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), resulting in a poleward shift of the midlatitude eddy-driven jet on longer timescales. As such, coupled feedbacks from both stratospheric ozone and the AMOC result in a two-timescale response of the NH midlatitude jet to abrupt 4xCO2 forcing: a “fast” response (5-20 years) during which it shifts equatorward and a “total” response (∼100-150 years) during which the jet shifts poleward. The latter is driven by a weakening of the AMOC that develops in response to weaker surface zonal winds, that result in reduced heat fluxes out of the subpolar gyre and reduced North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Our results suggest that stratospheric ozone changes in the lower stratosphere can have a surprisingly powerful effect on the AMOC, independent of other aspects of climate change.

Climate models↗