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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Space-Dependent Calculation of the Multiplicity Moments for Shells With the Inclusion of Scattering

In recent work, we extended the methodology of multiplicity counting in nuclear safeguards by elaborating the one-speed stochastic transport theory of the calculation of the so-called multiplicity moments, i.e., the factorial moments of the number of neutrons emitted from a fissile item, following a source event from an internal neutron source [spontaneous fission and (α; n) reactions]. Calculations were made for solid spheres and cylinders, with the source being homogeneously distributed within the item. Recent measurements of the Rocky Flats Shells during the Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSIC) campaign conducted by Los Alamos National Laboratory and assisted by the University of Michigan inspired us to extend the model to spherical shell geometry with a point source in the middle of the central cavity. Comparison of the calculated results with the experimental ones indicated that accounting for fission as the only neutron reaction (the standard procedure in the point model, adapted also in our work so far) was not sufficient for reaching good agreement with measurements. The model was therefore extended to include elastic scattering into the one speed formalism, whereas the effect of inelastic scattering was accounted for in an empirical way. After these extensions, good agreement was found between the calculated and the measured values. The paper describes the extension of the theory and provides concrete quantitative results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Performance of a Nonlinear Control Strategy to Regulate Temperature of a High-Temperature Solar Reactor

Abstract Despite the significant potential of solar thermochemical process technology for storing solar energy as solid-state solar fuel, several challenges have made its industrial application difficult. It is important to note that solar energy has a transient nature that causes instability and reduces process efficiency. Therefore, it is crucial to implement a robust control system to regulate the process temperature and tackle the shortage of incoming solar energy during cloudy weather. In our previous works, different model-based control strategies were developed namely a proportional integral derivative controller (PID) with gain scheduling and adaptive model predictive control (MPC). These methods were tested numerically to regulate the temperature inside a high-temperature tubular solar reactor. In this work, the proposed control strategies were experimentally tested under various operation conditions. The controllers were challenged to track different setpoints (500 °C, 1000 °C, and 1450 °C) with different amounts of gas/particle flowrates. Additionally, the flow controller was tested to regulate the reactor temperature under a cloudy weather scenario. The ultimate goal was to produce 5 kg of reduced solar fuel magnesium manganese oxide (MgMn2O4) successfully, and the controllers were able to track the required process temperature and reject disturbances despite the system's strong nonlinearity. The experimental results showed a maximum error in the temperature setpoint of less than 0.5% (6 °C), and the MPC controller demonstrated superior performance in reducing the control effort and rejecting disturbances.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chemical mixture exposure patterns and obesity among U.S. adults in NHANES 2005–2012

The effect of chemical exposure on obesity has raised great concerns. Real-world chemical exposure always imposes mixture impacts, however their exposure patterns and the corresponding associations with obesity have not been fully evaluated. To discover obesity-related mixed chemical exposure patterns in the general U.S. population. Sparse Decompositional Regression (SDR), a model adapted from sparse representation learning technique, was developed to identify exposure patterns of chemical mixtures with exclusion (non-targeted model) and inclusion (targeted model) of health outcomes. We assessed the relationships between the identified chemical mixture patterns and obesity-related indexes. We also conducted a comprehensive evaluation of this SDR model by comparing to the existing models, including generalized linear regression model (GLM), principal component analysis (PCA), and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR). Eight core exposure patterns were identified using the non-targeted SDR model. Patterns of high levels of MEP, high levels of naphthalene metabolites (ΣOH-Nap), and a pattern of high exposure levels of MCOP, MCNP, and MCPP were positively associated with obesity. Patterns of high levels of BP3, and a pattern of higher mixed levels of MPB, PPB, and MEP were found to have negative associations. Associations were strengthened using the targeted SDR model. In the single chemical analysis by GLM, BP3, MBP, PPB, MCOP, and MCNP showed significant associations with obesity or body indexes. The SDR model exceeded the performance of PCA in pattern identification. Both SDR and BKMR identified a positive contribution of ΣOH-Nap and MCOP, as well as a negative contribution of BP3 and PPB to obesity. Our study identified five core exposure patterns of chemical mixtures significantly associated with obesity using the newly developed SDR model. The SDR model could open a new avenue for assessing health effects of environmental mixture contaminants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contextual Active Online Model Selection with Expert Advice

How can we collect the most useful labels to learn a model selection policy, when presented with arbitrary heterogeneous data streams? In this paper, we formulate this task as a contextual active model selection problem, where at each round the learner receives an unlabeled data point along with a context. The goal is to output the best model for any given context without obtaining an excessive amount of labels. In particular, we focus on the task of selecting pre-trained classifiers, and propose a contextual active model selection algorithm (CAMS), which relies on a novel uncertainty sampling query criterion defined on a given policy class for adaptive model selection. In comparison to prior art, our algorithm does not assume a globally optimal model. We provide rigorous theoretical analysis for the regret and query complexity under both adversarial and stochastic settings. Our experiments on several benchmark classification datasets demonstrate the algorithm’s effectiveness in terms of both regret and query complexity. Notably, to achieve the same accuracy, CAMS incurs less than 10% of the label cost when compared to the best online model selection baselines on CIFAR10.

Liu, Xuefeng↗
DOE OSTI2022

A neural network‐enhanced reproducing kernel particle method for modeling strain localization

Abstract Modeling the localized intensive deformation in a damaged solid requires highly refined discretization for accurate prediction, which significantly increases the computational cost. Although adaptive model refinement can be employed for enhanced effectiveness, it is cumbersome for the traditional mesh‐based methods to perform while modeling the evolving localizations. In this work, neural network‐enhanced reproducing kernel particle method (NN‐RKPM) is proposed, where the location, orientation, and shape of the solution transition near a localization is automatically captured by the NN approximation via a block‐level neural network (NN) optimization. The weights and biases in the blocked parameterization network control the location and orientation of the localization. The designed basic four‐kernel NN block is capable of capturing a triple junction or a quadruple junction topological pattern, while more complicated localization topological patters are captured by the superposition of multiple four‐kernel NN blocks. The standard RK approximation is then utilized to approximate the smooth part of the solution, which permits a much coarser discretization than the high‐resolution discretization needed to capture sharp solution transitions with the conventional methods. A regularization of the NN approximation is additionally introduced for discretization‐independent material responses. The effectiveness of the proposed NN‐RKPM is verified by a series of numerical verifications.

Baek, Jonghyuk↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of a Model Predictive Control Strategy to Regulate Temperature Inside Plug-Flow Solar Reactor With Countercurrent Flow

Abstract Solar-driven thermochemical energy storage systems are proven to be promising energy carriers (solar fuels) to utilize solar energy by using reactive solid-state pellets. However, the production of solar fuel requires a quasi-steady-state process temperature, which represents the main challenge due to the transient nature of solar power. In this work, an adaptive model predictive controller (MPC) is presented to regulate the temperature inside a tubular solar reactor to produce solid-state solar fuel for long-term thermal storage systems. The solar reactor system consists of a vertical tube heated circumferentially over a segment of its length by concentrated solar power, and the reactive pellets (MgMn2O4) are fed from the top end and flow downwards through the heated tube. A countercurrent flowing gas supplied from the lower end interacts with flowing pellets to reduce it thermochemically at a temperature range of 1000—1500 °C. A low-order physical model was developed to simulate the dynamics of the solar reactor including the reaction kinetics, and the proposed model was validated numerically by using a 7-kW electric furnace. The numerical model then was utilized to design the MPC controller, where the control system consists of an MPC code linked to an adaptive system identification code that updates system parameters online to ensure system robustness against external disturbances (sudden change in the flow inside the reactor), model mismatches, and uncertainty. The MPC controller parameters are tuned to enhance the system performance with minimum steady-state error and overshoot. The controller is tested to track different temperature ranges between 500 °C and 1400 °C with different particles/gas mass flowrates and ramping temperature profiles. Results show that the MPC controller successfully regulated the reactor temperature within ± 1 °C of its setpoint and maintained robust performance with minimum input effort when subjected to sudden changes in the amount of flowing media and the presence of chemical reaction.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Federated Learning for Efficient Condition Monitoring and Anomaly Detection in Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems

Detecting and localizing anomalies in cyber-physical systems (CPS) has become increasingly challenging as systems grow in complexity, particularly due to varying sensor reliability and node failures in distributed environments. While federated learning (FL) offers a foundation for distributed model training, existing approaches lack mechanisms to handle these CPS-specific challenges. This paper presents an enhanced FL framework that introduces three key innovations: adaptive model aggregation based on sensor reliability, dynamic node selection for resource optimization, and Weibull-based checkpointing for fault tolerance. Our framework enables reliable condition monitoring while addressing the computational and reliability challenges of industrial CPS deployments. Experiments on NASA Bearing and Hydraulic System Datasets demonstrate superior performance over state-of-the-art FL methods, achieving 99.5% AUC-ROC in anomaly detection and maintaining accuracy under node failures. Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney (U) test confirms significant improvements (p < 0.05) in both detection accuracy and computational efficiency across diverse operational scenarios.1

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling fundamental mechanisms of silicon nitride crystallization in microelectronics manufacturing

This research project investigates the fundamental mechanisms of silicon nitride (SiN) crystallization, aiming to enhance the understanding of this critical material in microelectronics manufacturing. Through a collaborative effort between Sandia National Laboratories, the University of Tennessee, and the University of Florida, we developed a comprehensive framework that integrates experimental techniques, atomistic modeling, meso-scale simulations, and an integrated multi-scale model to capture this physical phenomenon on multiple time and length scales . The project developed a new machine learning based atomistic potential and utilized advanced phase field modeling to capture the complexities of polycrystalline growth and the influence of mechanical stresses on crystallization dynamics. By employing a grain tracker algorithm, the meso-scale model effectively identified and tracked individual crystal grains, enabling the simulation of anisotropic growth behaviors reflective of SiN’s physical properties. The integration of atomistic simulations with meso-scale modeling created a powerful multi-scale framework that validated atomistic inputs and enhanced predictive accuracy for crystallization dynamics at larger scales, validated experimentally. This adaptable modeling capability not only accelerates development times by informing manufacturing processes but also serves as a valuable starting point for understanding crystallization physics in similar materials. The insights gained from this research unlock new opportunities for the development of advanced materials tailored for future microelectronics and photonics applications. Overall, this project represents a significant advancement in understanding of fundamental physics of SiN and establishes a foundation for future research in material science, bridging the gap between atomic-level phenomena and macroscopic material behaviors for practical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

DEEP CELLULAR RECURRENT NEURAL ARCHITECTURE FOR EFFICIENT MULTIDIMENSIONAL TIME-SERIES DATA PROCESSING

Efficient processing of time series data is a fundamental yet challenging problem in pattern recognition. Though recent developments in machine learning and deep learning have enabled remarkable improvements in processing large scale datasets in many application domains, most are designed and regulated to handle inputs that are static in time. Many real-world data, such as in biomedical, surveillance and security, financial, manufacturing and engineering applications, are rarely static in time, and demand models able to recognize patterns in both space and time. Current machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models adapted for time series processing tend to grow in complexity and size to accommodate the additional dimensionality of time. Specifically, the biologically inspired learning based models known as artificial neural networks that have shown extraordinary success in pattern recognition, tend to grow prohibitively large and cumbersome in the presence of large scale multi-dimensional time series biomedical data such as EEG. Consequently, this work aims to develop representative ML and DL models for robust and efficient large scale time series processing. First, we design a novel ML pipeline with efficient feature engineering to process a large scale multi-channel scalp EEG dataset for automated detection of epileptic seizures. With the use of a sophisticated yet computationally efficient time-frequency analysis technique known as harmonic wavelet packet transform and an efficient self-similarity computation based on fractal dimension, we achieve state-of-the-art performance for automated seizure detection in EEG data. Subsequently, we investigate the development of a novel efficient deep recurrent learning model for large scale time series processing. For this, we first study the functionality and training of a biologically inspired neural network architecture known as cellular simultaneous recurrent neural network (CSRN). We obtain a generalization of this network for multiple topological image processing tasks and investigate the learning efficacy of the complex cellular architecture using several state-of-the?art training methods. Finally, we develop a novel deep cellular recurrent neural network (CDRNN) architecture based on the biologically inspired distributed processing used in CSRN for processing time series data. The proposed DCRNN leverages the cellular recurrent architecture to promote extensive weight sharing and efficient, individualized, synchronous processing of multi-source time series data. Experiments on a large scale multi-channel scalp EEG, and a machine fault detection dataset show that the proposed DCRNN offers state-of-the-art recognition performance while using substantially fewer trainable recurrent units.

Vidyaratne, Lasitha S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equilibration and “Thermalization” in the Adapted Caldeira–Leggett Model

I explore the processes of equilibration exhibited by the Adapted Caldeira–Leggett (ACL) model, a small unitary “toy model” developed for numerical studies of quantum decoherence between an SHO and an environment. I demonstrate how dephasing allows equilibration to occur in a wide variety of situations. While the finite model size and other “unphysical” aspects prevent the notions of temperature and thermalization from being generally applicable, certain primitive aspects of thermalization can be realized for particular parameter values. I link the observed behaviors to intrinsic properties of the global energy eigenstates, and argue that the phenomena I observe contain elements which might be key ingredients that lead to ergodic behavior in larger more realistic systems. The motivations for this work range from curiosity about phenomena observed in earlier calculations with the ACL model to much larger questions related to the nature of equilibrium, thermalization, and the emergence of physical laws.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of structure and coverage on the reactivity of realistic heterogeneous catalysts

Adsorbates often cover the surfaces of catalysts densely as they carry out reactions, dynamically altering their structure and reactivity. Understanding adsorbate-induced phenomena and harnessing them in our broader quest for improved catalysts is a substantial challenge that is only beginning to be addressed. Here, in this work, we chart a path toward a deeper understanding of such phenomena by focusing on emerging in silico modeling methodologies, which will increasingly incorporate machine learning techniques. We first examine how adsorption on catalyst surfaces can lead to local and even global structural changes spanning entire nanoparticles, and how this affects their reactivity. We then evaluate current efforts and the remaining challenges in developing robust and predictive simulations for modeling such behavior. Last, we provide our perspectives in four critical areas—integration of artificial intelligence, building robust catalysis informatics infrastructure, synergism with experimental characterization, and adaptive modeling frameworks—that we believe can help surmount the remaining challenges in rationally designing catalysts in light of these complex phenomena.

catalytic mechanisms↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proof-of-Concept for Sensor Modeling in MOOSE for the Design of Autonomous Nuclear Reactor Control

Autonomous operation is essential for the deployment of microreactors and fission batteries, both in terrestrial and space applications. For this reason, recent studies have investigated autonomous control by using adaptive model predictive control and multi-objective optimization for heat pipe–cooled microreactors under normal and heat pipe failure conditions. However, prototypes of microreactors and fission batteries do not exist yet, and even the design space has not been narrowed down conclusively, making the instrumentation and control system design difficult. For this reason, there is a need for flexible computational capabilities to create a numerical stand-in of potential microreactor and fission battery designs. The latter can be used to design and test control strategies to support autonomous operations. In this poster, we describe the initial implementation of a pluggable sensor system for the easy implementation of realistic sensor models in the multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment (MOOSE) framework. This new capability will enable MOOSE users to create a numerical stand-in of microreactors and fission batteries, ultimately allowing them to easily test new control algorithms, and instrumentation strategies for advanced systems in the design phase.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Tool Development and Validation for Solar Industry Process Heat Using Particle Thermal Energy Storage

U.S. industry sectors used 26.2 quadrillion Btu and accounted for 33% of total energy consumption in 2021 according to the Energy Information Agency. Industrial process heat accounts for 70% of industrial energy use with application temperatures ranging from 60 degrees -1100 degrees C. Industry processes, heavily relying on fossil fuels of cheap coal or natural gas, differ widely in operating conditions and load requirements which makes them difficult to standardize and imposes great challenges in decarbonization. Industry processes require reliable energy supply and vary widely in temperature ranges. Storing energy from renewable sources is necessary to improve reliability and to mitigate renewable intermittency when replacing carbon fuel-based heat supplies to achieve energy savings and reduce emissions. To this end, we have developed a particle-based thermal energy storage (TES) technology using low-cost and highly stable silica sand as a storage medium. The economic and performance-based analysis is key for renewable energy sources to reliably supply industry process heat and ultimately displace fossil fuels for decarbonization. The diversified industrial processes need case-by-case analysis and design. Therefore, an adaptive modeling tool is key for renewable power with energy storage to meet industry demands. Thus, a modeling tool to simulate a solar industry process heat system using the particle TES has been developed using the object-oriented equation-based language Modelica and the commercial platform of Modelon Impact. The Modelica-based software tool provides a general simulation environment for the design of reliable solar energy sources integrated with TES for various industrial process applications at different temperatures for economic competence with fossil fuels such as coal and natural gases. It uses both customized and standard component modeling modules in Modelon libraries for the flexibility to be adapted to a specific energy demand application. The particle TES system establishes a uniform energy supply platform with an efficient heat exchanger and particle thermal energy reservoir integrated with renewable powers. The particle TES system can provide a wide temperature range and can have a large storage temperature difference that increases storage energy density; therefore, it can be an adaptable energy storage system integrated with renewable power to supply 24/7 heat for industry decarbonization.

concentrated solar thermal↗
DOE OSTI2024

A dynamic volumetric heat source model for laser additive manufacturing

Melt pool scale models of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) offer insights into the process-structure-property relationships in additive manufacturing (AM). These models often neglect physical phenomena such as vapor cavity formation and fluid mechanics to reduce computational demands. Instead, volumetric heat source models are used to represent the effects that these phenomena have on the predicted melt pool dimensions. Generally, the dimensions and effective absorption of the volumetric heat source are calibrated to reproduce melt pool dimensions observed in metallographic cross sections taken from single-track experiments on bare plate. However, the transient nature of LPBF often deviates the melt pool dimensions from the assumed steady-state conditions of single-track experiments, motivating the need for a volumetric heat source model that more generally considers the dynamic relationship between melt pool shape and laser-material interactions. Here, we introduce a two-parameter volumetric heat source model that integrates several existing models into a generalized mathematical expression, providing independent control over the radial heat distribution via the parameter k and the volumetric shape of the heat source via the parameter m. This parameterization enables the calibration of melt pool shape predictions through simultaneous adjustment of these parameters, while keeping the radial heat source dimensions consistent with the experimental spot size (D4σ) and constraining the heat source depth and absorption to physically derived expressions for cavities. Consequently, the proposed volumetric heat source model adapts to changes in the local melt pool conditions due to scanning strategy and part geometry by dynamically adjusting the heat source depth and absorption. We demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed model through comparisons with a collection of experiments from the Additive Manufacturing Benchmark (AMBench).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging Fine-Grained Occupancy Estimation Patterns for Effective HVAC Control

As occupancy sensing technologies become mature, various occupancy sensors are increasingly deployed in commercial buildings for pervasive occupancy monitoring. These sensors provide occupant-count data, which contains rich spatiotemporal information about occupancy patterns. With long-term occupant-count data collected from a commercial building, we design three different predictive models that capture the occupancy dynamics and examine how a model predictive control of the HVAC system benefits from actual occupancy count prediction. Our analysis reveals that mispredictions of occupancy states, especially false positives and false negatives, may introduce inefficient control that leads to energy waste or user discomfort. To address this issue, we take a step further to design an adaptive model predictive controller that minimizes inefficient control actions according to misprediction types and distributions. A comprehensive evaluation is performed in OpenBuild and EnergyPlus simulators to study the effectiveness of the proposed end-to-end control strategy. The evaluation shows that the proposed solution reduces energy consumption by 29.5% while improving the average weighted occupants comfort by 86.7% in Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) over the fixed schedule strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Host-region parameters for an adjustable model for crustal earthquakes to facilitate the implementation of the backbone approach to building ground-motion logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

The backbone approach to constructing a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can address shortcomings in the traditional approach of populating the branches with multiple existing, or potentially modified, ground-motion models (GMMs) by rendering more transparent the relationship between branch weights and the resulting distribution of predicted accelerations. To capture epistemic uncertainty in a tractable manner, there are benefits in building the logic tree through the application of successive adjustments for differences in source, path, and site characteristics between the host region of the selected backbone GMM and the target region for which the PSHA is being conducted. The implementation of this approach is facilitated by selecting a backbone GMM that is amenable to such host-to-target adjustments for individual source, path, and site characteristics. The NGA-West2 GMM of Chiou and Youngs (CY14) has been identified as a highly adaptable model for crustal seismicity that is well suited to such adjustments. Rather than using generic source, path, and site characteristics assumed appropriate for the host region, the final suite of adjusted GMMs for the target region will be better constrained if the host-region parameters are defined specifically on the basis of their compatibility with the CY14 backbone GMM. To this end, making use of a recently developed crustal shear-wave velocity profile consistent with CY14, we present an inversion of the model to estimate the key source and path parameters, namely the stress parameter and the anelastic attenuation. With these outputs, the effort in constructing a ground-motion logic tree for any PSHA dealing with crustal seismicity can be focused primarily on the estimation of the target-region characteristics and their associated uncertainties. The inversion procedure can also be adapted for any application in which different constraints might be relevant.

Stafford, Peter J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Legacy Analysis of Milky Way Dwarf Spheroidal Satellite Galaxies: An Update

Studies of Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) data coincident with dwarf spheroidal satellite galaxies (dSphs) of the Milky Way have put the most stringent constraints on models of annihilating dark matter (DM) with candidate masses in the GeV–TeV range. Recent results found the presence of small, local significance excesses from these targets, at the 2σ–3σ level. However, these excesses disagree on the predicted properties of the DM candidate, and their significance vanishes when considering correction factors for the number of trials. In this work, we apply key improvements to the analysis of dSphs. We use stricter cuts on the data, implement a method to adaptively model the background, and assume an updated framework for DM annihilation. We find that our improved background modeling leads to a better agreement between the model and the data. This produces an increase in the local and global significance of the dSph excess compared to previous studies. Finally, we find that the DM properties obtained in this work are less dependent on the sample of dSphs being considered compared to previous studies, while remaining in agreement with the predictions from the Galactic center excess observed by Fermi/LAT and the antiproton excess observed by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02). Considering our improvements, a future significant increase in the number of dwarfs may lead to a definitive confirmation or exclusion of the DM interpretation of the Galactic center excess.

cold dark matter↗