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At least 73 records · Page 4

A Discrete Event Simulation Approach to Nuclear Arms Enterprise Modeling and Analysis

We overview a discrete event simulation of an arms control enterprise developed to familiarize individuals with the challenges of verification and monitoring at the enterprise level. We will review the design of the simulation applied to a notional country’s nuclear arms enterprise. This simulation models how these nuclear weapons move over their lifetime from deployment, storage, maintenance, and dismantlement. With this output information, we then characterize the “ground truth” of the enterprise. Next, based on these data, we built a sophisticated analysis engine designed to provide treaty monitoring and verification information to support partner country inspectors and their evaluation. This tool was designed to be used as a game, enabling teams to compete on developing the best inspection plan to determine if the host country is complying with the conceptual treaty developed for this effort.

Pulliam, Rachel M.↗

The Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Clear Convective Boundary Layer at the ARM SGP Supersite

The convective boundary layer (CBL), also known as the mixing layer, constitutes the critical lower segment of the atmosphere that significantly influences daily human activities. The growing demand for precise weather forecasts is driven by the requirements of agriculture, transportation, and routine societal functions. Here, to enhance understanding of the CBL, this study investigates the spatiotemporal variability in the CBL and its controlling factors using four-year Doppler lidar, surface flux, and profiling measurements at five ARM Southern Great Plains sites within a 100 km radius. This investigation utilizes data collected exclusively under clear-sky conditions or scattered low-cloud conditions. Results reveal significant spatial differences in CBL evolutions. Daily mixing layer heights (MLHs) vary up to 1 km (30% of the mean) in late afternoon. There is a clear east–west contrast: western sites (C1, E32, E37) exhibit higher summer MLH (1.9–2.1 km) and vertical velocity variances (1.0–1.2 m 2 s −2 ) than eastern sites (1.6–1.8 km), reversing in winter. Temporally, the MLH peaks at 70% of the sunrise–sunset interval, the lagging heat flux (HF) peaks at 50%; and the seasonal MLH maxima lag the HF by approximately one month, influenced by nighttime PBL (planetary boundary layer) properties. The HF and lower tropospheric stability are the main factors of influence for the CBL, but site-specific dependencies highlight the critical roles of local factors, underscoring the need for including them in CBL modeling.

ARM SGP site↗

Surface heat flux and its association with the MJO in the tropical western Pacific using ARM observations

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major atmospheric phenomenon in the tropics that moves eastward every 20 to 100 days. It brings heavy rain and strong winds, influencing extreme weather events far beyond the tropics – including flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy snow in the United States. Therefore, an improved understanding of the MJO is critical for enhancing weather forecasts and supporting better decision-making for communities, emergency managers, and the private sector. Past studies, based on short-term observations or long-term model data, have emphasized the dominant role of atmospheric humidity in driving the MJO. Our research, using long-term observations (2000-2014) from three U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the tropical western Pacific (Manus, Nauru, and Darwin) confirms those past findings. However, we also show that atmospheric temperature, especially in the mid and upper troposphere, also plays a key role in the MJO’s evolution from its quiet (suppressed) to convective (active) phase. These findings provide valuable insights into how the MJO evolves and may help evaluate and improve weather and climate models. Our study also examined how the exchange of heat between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, called surface heat flux, interacts with the MJO. This flux includes components such as latent heat (related to evaporation), sensible heat (related to temperature difference between surface and atmosphere), and radiation. We found that modulation in MJO convection is well connected to surface heat flux over the tropical western Pacific. One surface heat flux component often overlooked is the sensible heat flux due to precipitation (Q P ). Since falling raindrops are typically cooler than the land or ocean surface, they can cool the surface and affect local weather. To test the impact of Q P on convection during MJO, we incorporated it into a weather model, and ran simulations for two periods: April 2009 (when the MJO was active) and June 2006 (when it was not). Including Q P reduced errors in simulating the daily peak of rainfall—by 83% during the strong MJO and 23% during the inactive phase. It also improved the timing of peak daily rainfall and reduced the overall precipitation error by about 10%. These improvements were especially noticeable during periods of heavy rainfall. Our results suggest that even small heat exchanges from rainfall can play a significant role in shaping local weather. Accounting for these effects, particularly in regions like the tropical islands, can lead to more accurate simulations of the MJO-associated precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tethered Balloon Observations of Vertically Resolved Aerosol Size Distributions during the U.S. DOE ARM CoURAGE and BNF Campaigns

This dataset contains vertically resolved aerosol particle number size distributions measured using a miniature Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (mSEMS) deployed aboard the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Tethered Balloon System (TBS) during the 2025 Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) and Bankhead National Forest (BNF) field campaigns. The mSEMS measured aerosol size distributions over approximately 10–300 nm during repeated TBS vertical profiles through the atmospheric boundary layer. The dataset provides measurements of particle number size distributions as a function of particle diameter, altitude, and time and supports investigation of aerosol vertical structure, elevated ultrafine and Aitken-mode particle layers, boundary-layer evolution, and residual-layer processes.

ARM↗

A Comparative Study of Cloud Properties Between Northern and Southern High Latitudes Based on ARM Observations and EAMv2 Simulations

Earth's high-latitude regions show a considerable amount of cloud coverage, which significantly affects global radiation budgets. Here, in this study, we examine ground- and ship-based remote sensing observations from two Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) field campaigns conducted in the high-latitude regions of Northern and Southern Hemispheres (NH and SH). A comparison of macrophysical properties for low, mid-level, high, and deep clouds shows that the cloud top heights and thickness values are higher in the Arctic for each cloud type compared with the Southern Ocean and Antarctic regions, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the north Atlantic. The Arctic also shows lower ice phase occurrence frequencies compared with the SH high latitudes for low clouds. For high, mid-level and deep clouds, the cloud phase distributions as a function of temperature show small geographical variabilities. The observations are then compared with the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to evaluate the representations of these cloud properties. Here, the results show that the model captures cloud base and top heights well and reproduces the differences in cloud macrophysical properties between the two hemispheres. But the model underestimates ice phase frequencies for all cloud types. Such model cloud phase bias is strongly correlated with positive relative humidity biases and negative aerosol number concentration biases, indicating an important role of relative humidity and aerosols in modulating cloud phase partitioning in the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale Cellular Convection Detection and Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks: Insights From Long-Term Observations at ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Marine boundary layer clouds are crucial in Earth's climate system. They frequently manifest as closed or open cell mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). MCC clouds are challenging to represent accurately in current climate models, highlighting the need for detailed observational data sets and in-depth analyses. This study utilizes over 8 years of observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site at Graciosa Island, Azores, to investigate these clouds. We first apply a convolutional neural network with a U-Net architecture to classify open and closed cells, marking the first application of such an approach for automatically detecting MCC patterns from ground-based radar measurements. This method addresses some observational gaps in satellite data related to low temporal resolution, nighttime challenges, and limited vertical structure capture. The analysis of the MCC cases shows clear differences between closed and open MCCs: Closed MCC clouds are characterized by lower cloud tops and bases, shallower cloud geometrical depth, weaker horizontal wind speeds, stronger atmospheric stability, and a more homogeneous liquid water path than open MCCs. Finally, we demonstrate two potential applications of our radar-based MCC classifications: (a) facilitating the investigation of aerosol-cloud interactions and (b) exploring meteorological factors along with MCC's evolution by integrating satellite imagery and back-trajectory analysis. The identified MCC cases offer a valuable resource for the scientific community to study MCC processes further and improve climate model accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Single nucleotide variants drive evolutionary phage-host arms race in anaerobic carbon dioxide-converting microbiome

Microbial bioconversions are shaped by environmental perturbations and the adaptation of resident microbiomes. Prokaryotes coexist with bacteriophages, yet their coevolutionary trajectories remain underexplored. Here, we investigate the effects of a cultivation vessel leak on an anaerobic consortium performing carbon dioxide reduction. Using time-series shotgun metagenomic sequencing, we reconstruct microbial and viral genomes to track community shifts. We further apply single-nucleotide variant profiling and CRISPR array analysis to monitor viral microdiversity and host defense mechanisms. After bioaugmentation restores bioconversion efficiency, the consortium undergoes pronounced restructuring, with new dominant taxa emerging from the rare biosphere. We identify patterns consistent with phage predation selectively removing certain species, while others exhibit resilience to infection. This shift aligns with a widespread viral outbreak and a transient increased frequency of single nucleotide variants in bacterial CRISPR–Cas defense genes. Expansion of CRISPR spacers further supports that CRISPR-mediated processes influence microbial resilience. Concurrently, phages infecting resilient hosts exhibited adaptive evolution, marked by high genetic heterogeneity. Selective pressure varies across their genomes, targeting infectivity genes and protospacer-adjacent motifs. These findings highlight a dynamic evolutionary arms race driven by the selection of beneficial genetic variants, providing a mechanistic framework for multi-omics investigations, and informing biotechnological applications, including phage-based microbiome manipulation.

Ghiotto, G↗

The positron arm of a plasma-based linear collider

Plasma-based acceleration of electrons has produced high-energy beams at high accelerating gradients with a narrow energy spread and high efficiency both in experiments and simulations. Furthermore, it is now being considered as a complementary approach to the use of radiofrequency cavities in next-generation lepton accelerators. However, compared with electrons, plasma-based positron acceleration is at the present time much less advanced. Although high-gradient positron acceleration in a plasma has been achieved, we are one to three orders of magnitude away from delivering the high-quality positron beams needed for a future high-energy linear collider. Here we review the status of plasma-based acceleration of electrons and positrons and discuss the prospects for substantial progress towards developing the positron arm of a plasma-based electron–positron linear collider in the next decade.

Plasma-based accelerators↗

Emittance preservation for the electron arm in a single PWFA-LC stage using quasi-adiabatic plasma density ramp matching sections

Plasma-based acceleration (PBA) is being considered for a next generation linear collider (LC). In some PBA-LC designs for the electron arm, the extreme beam parameters are expected to trigger background ion motion within the witness beam, which can lead to longitudinally varying nonlinear focusing forces and result in an unacceptable emittance growth of the beam. To mitigate this, we propose to use quasi-adiabatic plasma density ramps as matching sections at the entrance and exit of each stage. We match the witness electron beam to the low density plasma entrance, where the beam initially has a large matched spot size so the ion motion effects are relatively small. As the beam propagates in the plasma density upramp, it is quasi-adiabatically focused, and its distribution maintains a non-Gaussian equilibrium distribution in each longitudinal slice throughout the process, even when severe ion collapse has occurred. This only causes small amounts of slice emittance growth. The phase mixing between slices with different betatron frequencies leads to additional projected emittance growth within the acceleration stage. A density downramp at the exit of an acceleration section can eliminate much of the slice and projected emittance growth as the beam and ion motion adiabatically defocuses and decreases, respectively. Simulation results from QuickPIC with Azimuthal Decomposition show that within a single acceleration stage with a 25 GeV energy gain, this concept can limit the projected emittance growth to only ∼2% for a 25 GeV, 100 nm emittance witness beam and ∼20% for a 100 GeV, 100 nm normalized emittance witness beam. The trade-off between the adiabaticity of the plasma density ramp and the initial ion motion at the entrance for a given length of the plasma density ramp is also discussed.

Physics↗

Demonstration and Concept of Operations for a Zero-Knowledge Protocol Passive Imaging Measurement for Arms Control

Here, we present an imaging system that employs zero-knowledge protocols to protect sensitive geometrical information, along with procedures to increase confidence in the result. The goal of this work is to enable the inclusion of warhead confirmation measurements in future arms control treaties. We present a demonstration of both true positive and true negative measurements that validate models and establish authenticating procedures toward meeting acceptance requirements for use in nuclear facilities. We use a two-dimensional time-encoded fast neutron imaging system with an anti-symmetric mask pattern; the fast neutron count values exceeding minimum or maximum thresholds indicate that two measured items are not identical. Laboratory measurements over twenty trials show that alarm rates for negative confirmation measurements are within uncertainties of model predictions. Positive confirmation measurements indicate that alarm rates are large enough to encourage treaty compliance.

Sweany, Melinda Dominique [Sandia National Laborat↗