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Experiments on Evolving Software Models of Analog Circuits

Analog circuits are of great importance in electronic system design since the world is fundamentally analog in nature. While the amount of digital design activity far outpaces that of analog design, most digital systems require analog modules for interfacing with the external world. It was recently estimated that approximately 60% of digital application- specific integrated circuit designs incorporated analog circuits. With challenging analog circuit design problems and few analog design engineers, there are economic reasons for automating the analog design process, especially time-to-market considerations. Techniques for analog circuit design automation began appearing about two decades ago. These methods incorporated heuristics [6], knowledge bases [1], simulated annealing [5], and other algorithms. Efforts using techniques from evolutionary computation began appearing over the last few years. These include the use of genetic algorithms to select electronic component values (for example, the resistance value of a resistor), to select circuit topologies, and to design amplifiers using a limited set of canned topologies [4]. A genetic programming-based analog circuit design system has been demonstrated in which the circuit sizes, component values, and the circuit topologies are determined automatically [3]. The genetic-algorithm systems typically represent circuit structures as vectors of parameters encoded in binary strings, while the genetic programming system manipulates tree data structures.

Lohn, Jason D.↗

NASA HRP Immunology Discipline - Use of Terrestrial Analogs

Due to the cost and operational constraints, as well as technical implementation limitations, it is desirous to perform relevant space physiology investigations first in terrestrial 'space analogs'. This is particularly true for initial investigations, which may then provide appropriate focus for subsequent flight investigations, or for mechanistic investigations that simply cannot be performed during spaceflight. Appropriate analog choice is extremely important. There are a wide variety of terrestrial space analogs, each relevant to a particular physiological discipline (or disciplines) and each with a particular fidelity (or lack thereof) to spaceflight, and each with unique operational constraints. The HRP Immunology Discipline is tasked with managing the HRP Risk concerning clinical risk for Astronaut crews related to spaceflight-associated immune dysregulation. Such dysregulation has been documented to occur during spaceflight, and found to persist for the duration of a 6-month ISS mission. Studies continue to characterize the onorbit phenomenon, but it generally consists of diminished immunocyte function, dysregulated cytokine profiles, and persistent herpesvirus reactivation. Causes are thought to synergistically include microgravity, psychological or physiological stress, radiation, and/or circadian misalignment. An appropriate terrestrial analog for immune dysregulation would replicate as many of these influences as possible. Such analogs may include clinostat or bioreactor cell culture (microgravity), hindlimb suspension (stress, fluid shifts, hypokinesis), or human deployment to remote or extreme environments (isolation, stress, circadian). Also, the laboratory setting may be used as an analog, or to augment analogs, such as sleep deprivation/misalignment or human centrifugation to replicate gravitational stress. As an appropriate example of a NASA Disciplines use of Terrestrial space analogs, this talk will discuss spaceflight associated immune dysregulation, terrestrial immune analogs, and recent analog investigations.

Crucian, Brian↗

Spaceflight Sensorimotor Analogs: Simulating Acute and Adaptive Effects

Adaptive changes in sensorimotor function during spaceflight are reflected by spatial disorientation, motion sickness, gaze destabilization and decrements in balance, locomotion and eye-hand coordination that occur during and following transitions between different gravitational states. The purpose of this study was to conduct a meta-synthesis of data from spaceflight analogs to evaluate their effectiveness in simulating adaptive changes in sensorimotor function. METHODS. The analogs under review were categorized as either acute analogs used to simulate performance decrements accompanied with transient changes, or adaptive analogs used to drive sensorimotor learning to altered sensory feedback. The effectiveness of each analog was evaluated in terms of mechanisms of action, magnitude and time course of observed deficits compared to spaceflight data, and the effects of amplitude and exposure duration. RESULTS. Parabolic flight has been used extensively to examine effects of acute variation in gravitational loads, ranging from hypergravity to microgravity. More recently, galvanic vestibular stimulation has been used to elicit acute postural, locomotor and gaze dysfunction by disrupting vestibular afferents. Patient populations, e.g., with bilateral vestibular loss or cerebellar dysfunction, have been proposed to model acute sensorimotor dysfunction. Early research sponsored by NASA involved living onboard rotating rooms, which appeared to approximate the time course of adaptation and post-exposure recovery observed in astronauts following spaceflight. Exposure to different bed-rest paradigms (6 deg head down, dry immersion) result in similar motor deficits to that observed following spaceflight. Shorter adaptive analogs have incorporated virtual reality environments, visual distortion paradigms, exposure to conflicting tilt-translation cues, and exposure to 3Gx centrifugation. As with spaceflight, there is considerable variability in responses to most of the analogs reviewed. DISCUSSION. A true ground-based flight analog for sensorimotor function is not feasible. A combination of flight analogs; however, can be used to selectively mimic different aspects of the spaceflight-induced sensorimotor performance decrements.

Taylor, Laura C.↗

Semi-synthetic salinomycin analogs exert cytotoxic activity against human colorectal cancer stem cells

Highlights: • Salinomycin analogs show increased activity against colorectal cancer cells. • Low micromolar concentrations result in inhibition of proliferation and migration. • High micromolar concentrations induce apoptotic cell death. • Salinomycin analogs show cancer stem cell specifity. Salinomycin, a polyether antibiotic, is a well-known inhibitor of human cancer stem cells. Chemical modification of the allylic C20 hydroxyl of salinomycin has enabled access to synthetic analogs that display increased cytotoxic activity compared to the native structure. The aim of this study was to investigate the activity of a cohort of C20-O-acyl analogs of salinomycin on human colorectal cancer cell lines in vitro. Two human colorectal cancer cell lines (SW480 and SW620) were exposed to three C20-O-acylated analogs and salinomycin. The impact of salinomycin and its analogs on tumor cell number, migration, cell death, and cancer stem cell specifity was analyzed. Exposure of human colorectal cancer cells to the C20-O-acylated analogs of salinomycin resulted in reduced tumor cell number and impaired tumor cell migration at lower concentrations than salinomycin. When used at higher (micromolar) concentrations, these effects were accompanied by induction of apoptotic cell death. Salinomycin analogs further expose improved activity against cancer stem cells compared to salinomycin.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A POPULATION OF X-RAY WEAK QUASARS: PHL 1811 ANALOGS AT HIGH REDSHIFT

We report the results from Chandra and XMM-Newton observations of a sample of 10 type 1 quasars selected to have unusual UV emission-line properties (weak and blueshifted high-ionization lines; strong UV Fe emission) similar to those of PHL 1811, a confirmed intrinsically X-ray weak quasar. These quasars were identified by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey at high redshift (z {approx} 2.2); eight are radio quiet while two are radio intermediate. All of the radio-quiet PHL 1811 analogs, without exception, are notably X-ray weak by a mean factor of {approx}13. These sources lack broad absorption lines and have blue UV/optical continua, supporting the hypothesis that they are intrinsically X-ray weak like PHL 1811 itself. However, their average X-ray spectrum appears to be harder than those of typical quasars, which may indicate the presence of heavy intrinsic X-ray absorption. Our sample of radio-quiet PHL 1811 analogs supports a connection between an X-ray weak spectral energy distribution and PHL 1811-like UV emission lines; this connection provides an economical way to identify X-ray weak type 1 quasars. The fraction of radio-quiet PHL 1811 analogs in the radio-quiet quasar population is estimated to be {approx}< 1.2%. We have investigated correlations between relative X-ray brightness and UV emission-line properties (e.g., C IV equivalent width and blueshift) for a sample combining our radio-quiet PHL 1811 analogs, PHL 1811 itself, and typical type 1 quasars. These correlation analyses suggest that PHL 1811 analogs may have extreme wind-dominated broad emission-line regions. Observationally, the radio-quiet PHL 1811 analogs appear to be a subset ({approx}30%) of radio-quiet weak-line quasars (WLQs). The existence of a subset of quasars in which high-ionization 'shielding gas' covers most of the broad emission-line region (BELR), but little more than the BELR, could potentially unify the PHL 1811 analogs and WLQs. The two radio-intermediate PHL 1811 analogs are X-ray bright. X-ray spectral analyses and consideration of their multiwavelength properties suggest that one of them has jet-dominated X-ray emission, while the nature of the other remains unclear.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Quantum Analog Coprocessor for Correlated Electron Systems Simulation

Analog quantum simulation is an approach for studying physical systems that might otherwise be computationally intractable to simulate on classical high-performance computing (HPC) systems. The key idea behind analog quantum simulation is the realization of a physical system with a low-energy effective Hamiltonian that is the same as the low-energy effective Hamiltonian of some target system to be studied. Purpose-built nanoelectronic devices are a natural candidate for implementing the analog quantum simulation of strongly correlated materials that are otherwise challenging to study using classical HPC systems. However, realizing devices that are sufficiently large to study the properties of a non-trivial material system (e.g., those described by a Fermi-Hubbard model) will eventually require the fabrication, control, and measurement of at least 0(10) quantum dots, or other engineered quantum impurities. As a step toward large-scale analog or digital quantum simulation platforms based on nanoelectronic devices, we propose a new approach to analog quantum simulation that makes use of the large Hilbert space dimension of the electronic baths that are used to adjust the occupancy of one or a few engineered quantum impurities. This approach to analog quantum simulation allows us to study a wide array of quantum impurity models. We can further augment the computational power of such an approach by combining it with a classical computer to facilitate dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) calculations. DMFT replaces the solution of a lattice impurity problem with the solution of a family of localized impurity problems with bath couplings that are adjusted to satisfy a self-consistency condition between the two models. In DMFT, the computationally challenging task is the high-accuracy solution of an instance of a quantum impurity model that is determined self-consistently in coordination with a mean-field calculation. We propose using one or a few engineered quantum impurities with adjustable couplings to baths to realize an analog quantum coprocessor that effects the solution of such a model through measurements of a physical quantum impurity, operating in coordination with a classical computer to achieve a self-consistent solution to a DMFT calculation. We focus on implementation details relevant to a number of technologies for which Sandia has design, fabrication, and measurement expertise. The primary technical advances outlined in this report concern the development of a supporting modeling capability. As with all analog quantum simulation platforms, the successful design and operation of individual devices depends critically on one's ability to predict the effective low-energy Hamiltonian governing its dynamics Our project has made this possible and lays the foundation for future experimental implementations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Modeling Analog Tile-Based Accelerators Using SST

Analog computing has been widely proposed to improve the energy efficiency of multiple important workloads including neural network operations, and other linear algebra kernels. To properly evaluate analog computing and explore more complex workloads such as systems consisting of multiple analog data paths, system level simulations are required. Moreover, prior work on system architectures for analog computing often rely on custom simulators creating signficant additional design effort and complicating comparisons between different systems. To remedy these issues, this report describes the design and implementation of a flexible tile-based analog accelerator element for the Structural Simulation Toolkit (SST). The element focuses on heavily on the tile controller—an often neglected aspect of prior work—that is sufficiently versatile to simulate a wide range of different tile operations including neural network layers, signal processing kernels, and generic linear algebra operations without major constraints. The tile model also interoperates with existing SST memory and network models to reduce the overall development load and enable future simulation of heterogeneous systems with both conventional digital logic and analog compute tiles. Finally, both the tile and array models are designed to easily support future extensions as new analog operations and applications that can benefit from analog computing are developed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analog Nonvolatile Computer Memory Circuits

In nonvolatile random-access memory (RAM) circuits of a proposed type, digital data would be stored in analog form in ferroelectric field-effect transistors (FFETs). This type of memory circuit would offer advantages over prior volatile and nonvolatile types: In a conventional complementary metal oxide/semiconductor static RAM, six transistors must be used to store one bit, and storage is volatile in that data are lost when power is turned off. In a conventional dynamic RAM, three transistors must be used to store one bit, and the stored bit must be refreshed every few milliseconds. In contrast, in a RAM according to the proposal, data would be retained when power was turned off, each memory cell would contain only two FFETs, and the cell could store multiple bits (the exact number of bits depending on the specific design). Conventional flash memory circuits afford nonvolatile storage, but they operate at reading and writing times of the order of thousands of conventional computer memory reading and writing times and, hence, are suitable for use only as off-line storage devices. In addition, flash memories cease to function after limited numbers of writing cycles. The proposed memory circuits would not be subject to either of these limitations. Prior developmental nonvolatile ferroelectric memories are limited to one bit per cell, whereas, as stated above, the proposed memories would not be so limited. The design of a memory circuit according to the proposal must reflect the fact that FFET storage is only partly nonvolatile, in that the signal stored in an FFET decays gradually over time. (Retention times of some advanced FFETs exceed ten years.) Instead of storing a single bit of data as either a positively or negatively saturated state in a ferroelectric device, each memory cell according to the proposal would store two values. The two FFETs in each cell would be denoted the storage FFET and the control FFET. The storage FFET would store an analog signal value, between the positive and negative FFET saturation values. This signal value would represent a numerical value of interest corresponding to multiple bits: for example, if the memory circuit were designed to distinguish among 16 different analog values, then each cell could store 4 bits. Simultaneously with writing the signal value in the storage FFET, a negative saturation signal value would be stored in the control FFET. The decay of this control-FFET signal from the saturation value would serve as a model of the decay, for use in regenerating the numerical value of interest from its decaying analog signal value. The memory circuit would include addressing, reading, and writing circuitry that would have features in common with the corresponding parts of other memory circuits, but would also have several distinctive features. The writing circuitry would include a digital-to-analog converter (DAC); the reading circuitry would include an analog-to-digital converter (ADC). For writing a numerical value of interest in a given cell, that cell would be addressed, the saturation value would be written in the control FFET in that cell, and the non-saturation analog value representing the numerical value of interest would be generated by use of the DAC and stored in the storage FFET in that cell. For reading the numerical value of interest stored in a given cell, the cell would be addressed, the ADC would convert the decaying control and storage analog signal values to digital values, and an associated fast digital processing circuit would regenerate the numerical value from digital values.

MacLeod, Todd↗

Development and Validation of Sensorimotor Assessment Tasks Using Spaceflight Analogs

INTRODUCTION Exploration class missions will require a new level of crew autonomy to self-assess and treat their sensorimotor dysfunction around periods of gravitational transition, where sensorimotor disturbances are at their highest. There is a need to define sensorimotor assessment thresholds that indicate when performance in early extravehicular activities (EVAs) might be impacted or unsafe. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a set of assessment tasks using sensorimotor spaceflight analogs including the Sensorimotor Disorientation Analog (SDA) and +3G x sustained centrifugation. METHODS For the SDA, forty-one healthy non-astronaut subjects (21 males, 20 females; Mean ± SD, Age: 34.0 ± 7.8 years) volunteered to participate in this study. Subjects attended two testing sessions: 1) familiarization to the tasks and baseline data collection, and 2) tasks completed under two levels of sensorimotor disorientation. Subjects performed a series of seven sensorimotor assessment tasks followed by two operationally relevant EVA analog tasks. The sensorimotor assessments tasks, ordered from least to most provocative of the sensorimotor system, included: postural stability, step test, prone/supine recovery from fall (RFF), four-square-step-test, obstacle negotiation with turns (OTT), kneel-and-reach, and augmented reality full-body coordination. The operational analog tasks included a top-hatch capsule egress and a 5-minute EVA traversal. Disorientation was applied via the SDA which utilized galvanic vestibular stimulation and weighted trunk, wrists, and ankles to target the vestibular and proprioceptive systems such that performance while wearing the SDA mimicked astronaut postflight performance at R+0 and R+1. Sixteen healthy non-astronaut subjects (10 males, 6 females; Age: 35.0 ± 9.5 years) completed +3G x 60-minute sustained centrifugation as an established spaceflight analog replicating the vestibular disruptions seen postflight. Subjects completed a pre-session which included familiarization to the tasks and a 5-minute centrifuge spin. The data collection session included, in order, a baseline data collection, 60-minute centrifuge spin, immediate post-centrifuge data collection, 45-minute seated recovery, and a final data collection. The same assessment and operational analog tasks were conducted as described above. RESULTS Pearsons’ correlation r-values were calculated between assessment and operational analog tasks. The two assessment tasks with the strongest correlations to the operational analog tasks were the RFF (SDA: r≥ 0.57, Centrifuge: r ≥0.55) and OTT (SDA: r≥ 0.66, Centrifuge: r ≥ 0.49). For brevity, repeated measures ANOVA with follow-up paired t-tests are discussed for these two assessment tasks. The SDA found significant differences between all three levels of disorientation for both RFF and OTT (p < 0.001). Significant differences were also found between baseline and immediate post centrifuge testing for both the RFF (p≤ 0.011) and OTT (p = 0.001). Additional results are forthcoming for both disorientation paradigms. DISCUSSION These validation studies provide evidence for down-selection of the assessment tasks that were able to distinguish between levels of sensorimotor disorientation and correlate to performance in operationally relevant tasks for use in upcoming Artemis missions.

S C Moudy↗

Optical domain analog to digital conversion methods and apparatus

Methods and apparatus for optical analog to digital conversion are disclosed. An optical signal is converted by mapping the optical analog signal onto a wavelength modulated optical beam, passing the mapped beam through interferometers to generate analog bit representation signals, and converting the analog bit representation signals into an optical digital signal. A photodiode receives an optical analog signal, a wavelength modulated laser coupled to the photodiode maps the optical analog signal to a wavelength modulated optical beam, interferometers produce an analog bit representation signal from the mapped wavelength modulated optical beam, and sample and threshold circuits corresponding to the interferometers produce a digital bit signal from the analog bit representation signal.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO 2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO 2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Low-temperature and low atmospheric pressure infrared reflectance spectroscopy of Mars soil analog materials

Infrared reflectance spectra of carefully selected Mars soil analog materials have been measured under low atmospheric pressures and temperatures. Chemically altered montmorillonites containing ferrihydrite and hydrated ferric sulfate complexes are examined, as well as synthetic ferrihydrate and a palagonitic soil from Haleakala, Maui. Reflectance spectra of these analog materials exhibit subtle visible to near-infrared features, which are indicative of nanophase ferric oxides or oxyhydroxides and are similar to features observed in the spectra of the bright regions of Mars. Infrared reflectance spectra of these analogs include hydration features due to structural OH, bound H2O and adsorbed H2O. The spectal character of these hydration features is highly dependent on the sample environment and on the nature of the H2O/OH in the analogs. The behavior of the hydration features near 1.9 micrometers, 2.2 micrometers, 2.7 micrometers, 3 micrometers, and 6 micrometers are reported here in spetra measured under Marslike atmospheric environment. In spectra of these analogs measured under dry Earth atmospheric conditions the 1.9-micrometer band depth is 8-17%; this band is much stonger under moist conditions. Under Marslike atmospheric conditions the 1.9-micrometer feature is broad and barely discernible (1-3% band depth) in spectra of the ferrihydrite and palagonitic soil samples. In comparable spectra of the ferric sulfate-bearing montmorillonite the 1.9-micrometer feature is also broad, but stronger (6% band depth). In the low atmospheric pressure and temperature spectra of the ferrihydrite-bearing montmorillonite this feature is sharper than the other analogs and relatively stronger (6% band depth). Although the intensity of the 3- micrometer band is weaker in spectra of each of the analogs when measured under Marslike conditions, the 3-micromter band remains a dominant feature and is especially broad in spectra of the ferrihydrite and palagonitic soil. The structural OH features observed in these materials at 2.2-2.3 micrometers and 2.27 micrometers remain largely unaffected by the environmental conditions. A shift in the Christiansen feature towards shorter wavelengths has also been observed with decreasing atmospheric pressure and temperature in the midinfrared spectra of these samples.

Bishop, Janice L.↗

Low-temperature and low atmospheric pressure infrared reflectance spectroscopy of Mars soil analog materials

Infrared reflectance spectra of carefully selected Mars soil analog materials have been measured under low atmospheric pressures and temperatures. Chemically altered montmorillonites containing ferrihydrite and hydrated ferric sulfate complexes are examined, as well as synthetic ferrihydrite and a palagonitic soil from Haleakala, Maui. Reflectance spectra of these analog materials exhibit subtle visible to near-infrared features, which are indicative of nanophase ferric oxides or oxyhydroxides and are similar to features observed in the spectra of the bright regions of Mars. Infrared reflectance spectra of these analogs include hydration features due to structural OH, bound H2O, and adsorbed H2O. The spectral character of these hydration features is highly dependent on the sample environment and on the nature of the H2O/OH in the analogs. The behavior of the hydration features near 1.9 micron, 2.2 micron, 2.7 micron, 3 micron, and 6 microns are reported here in spectra measured under a Marslike atmospheric environment. In spectra of these analogs measured under dry Earth atmospheric conditions the 1.9-micron band depth is 8-17%; this band is much stronger under moist conditions. Under Marslike atmospheric conditions the 1.9-micron feature is broad and barely discernible (1-3% band depth) in spectra of the ferrihydrite and palagonitic soil samples. In comparable spectra of the ferric sulfate-bearing montmorillonite the 1.9-micron feature is also broad, but stronger (6% band depth). In the low atmospheric pressure and temperature spectra of the ferrihydrite-bearing montmorillonite this feature is sharper than the other analogs and relatively stronger (6% band depth). Although the intensity of the 3-micron band is weaker in spectra of each of the analogs when measured under Marslike conditions, the 3-micron band remains a dominant feature and is especially broad in spectra of the ferrihydrite and palagonitic soil. The structural OH features observed in these materials at 2.2-2.3 micron and 2.75 microns remain largely unaffected by the environmental conditions. A shift in the Christiansen feature towards shorter wavelengths has also been observed with decreasing atmospheric pressure and temperature in the midinfrared spectra of these samples.

Bishop, Janice L.↗

Performance Effects of Display Incogruity in a Digital and Analog Clock Reading Task

In an era of increasing automation, it is important to design displays and input devices that minimize human error. In this context, information concerning the human response to the detection of incongruous information is important. Such incongruous information can be operationalized as unexpected (perhaps erroneous) information on which a decision by the human or operation by an automated system is based. In the aviation environment, decision making when faced with inadequate, incomplete, or incongruous information may occur in a failure scenario. An additional challenge facing the human operator in automated environments is maintaining alertness or vigilance. The vigilance issue is of particular concern as a factor that may interact with performance when faced with inadequate, incomplete, or incongruous information. From the literature on eye-scan behavior we know that the time spent looking at a particular display or indicator is a function of the type of information one is trying to discern from the display. For example, quick glances are all it takes for confirming that an indicator is in a normal position or range, whereas a continuous look of several seconds may be required for confirmation that a complex control input is having the desired effect. Important to consider is that while an extended look takes place, visual input from other sources may be missed. Much like an extended look, the interpretation of incongruous information may require extra time. The present experiment was designed to explore the performance consequences of a decision making task when incongruous information was presented. For this experiment a display incongruity was created on a subset of trials of a clock reading laboratory task. Display incongruity was made possible through presentation of 'impossible' times (e.g. 1:65 or 11:90). Subjects made 'same' 'different' decisions and keyboard responses to pairings of Analog-Analog (AA), Digital-Digital (DD), and Analog- Digital (AD), display combinations. For trials during which display incongruities were not presented, based on prior research comparing digital and analog clock displays, it would be expected that the Digital-Digital condition would result in the shortest response times and the Analog-Analog and Analog-Digital conditions would have longer response times. The performance consequence expected on trials with incongruous times would be very long response times.

J. Raymond Comstock, Jr.↗

Fostering Multilateral Involvement in Analog Research

International collaboration in space flight research is an effective means for conducting investigations and utilizing limited resources to the fullest extent. Through these multilateral collaborations mutual research questions can be investigated and resources contributed by each international partner to maximize the scientific benefits to all parties. Recently the international partners embraced this approach to initiate collaborations in ground‐based space flight analog environments. In 2011, the International Analog Research Working Group was established, and later named the International Human Space Flight Analog Research Coordination Group (HANA). Among the goals of this working group are to 1) establish a framework to coordinate research campaigns, as appropriate, to minimize duplication of effort and enhance synergy; 2) define what analogs are best to use for collaborative interests; and 3) facilitate interaction between discipline experts in order to have the full benefit of international expertise. To accomplish these goals, HANA is currently engaged in developing international research campaigns in ground‐based analogs. Plans are being made for an international solicitation for proposals to address research of common interest to all international partners. This solicitation with identify an analog environment that will best accommodate the types of investigations requested. Once selected, studies will be integrated into a campaign and implemented at the analog site. Through these combined efforts, research beneficial to all partners will be conducted efficiently to further address human risks of space exploration.

Cromwell, Ronita L.↗

Thinking Big and Broad About Isolation and Confinement Analogs: A Community Panel Discussion

As crewed spaceflight missions are set to explore greater distances from Earth and fly longer durations than ever before, we must expand our understanding of the impacts of prolonged isolation and confinement on the health, performance, and well-being of astronauts. In combination with flight research, ground-based analogs that simulate key mission conditions like the social and physical isolation associated with distance from Earth are essential research platforms for characterizing risk and developing validated and feasible countermeasures that support future crews and ground support teams. With several isolation and confinement analogs currently operating, and even more in development, there is great opportunity for a collaborative global analog environment to complement and optimize research efforts. The Research Operations and Integration team will moderate a panel discussion among analog operators and scientists who utilize isolation and confinement analogs. The focus of discussion will be the potential for strategic coordination, portability, and harmonization of science across different platforms; and identifying the valuable similarities and differences among isolation analogs as well as existing gaps within the analog community. A Q&A session will follow with attendees encouraged to ask questions and join in the discussion.

Reanna Elise Whiting↗

Real-Time Science Decisioning During High Tempo-High Intensity Mission Operations and the Role of Analogs

Introduction: NASA’s VIPER mission presents a unique operational paradigm within the history of robotic spaceflight. The proximity of the Moon to the Earth and the terrain elements (surface characteristics, light/shadow dynamics, communication links) of the lunar South Polar landing site create unprecedented operational conditions between these two planetary bodies. Apollo era lunar science and exploration included humans in situ to operate instruments and assimilate observational inputs in real-time. Previous lunar orbital missions have worked to operational timescales, e.g., decisional timelines and communication exchanges, that were weeks in length. Mars rover missions have worked to operational timescales, e.g., decisional timelines and communication exchanges between Mars and Earth, that were hours, days, and weeks in length. In the case of the VIPER mission, our operational decisioning for rover driving and instrument commanding will be compressed to minute-scale timeframes. These operational conditions directly impact the manner and speed with which the VIPER Science Team (VST) is required to synthesize and analyze data and produce timely science-driven decisions throughout surface mission operations. The VST shall provide mission enhancing scientific input to guide rover traverse planning and drill site confirmation and selection throughout surface operations. Further, the VST input will be of vital importance to the mission’s ability to maximize science return and to meet broader NASA objectives for future lunar in-situ resource utilization (ISRU)and exploration activities. The VST co-located in the Mission Science Center (MSC) will be responsive to the tactical operational cadence of the Mission Operations Center (MOC) and will provide further strategic and Long-Term Planning (LTP) guidance to the mission. The VIPER Science Operations & Integration(SO&I)team has developed an architecture that is focused on the infusion of science-decisioning into the operational framework and execution cadence of VIPER. NASA analog research has played a significant role in the construction of the VIPER science operations systems. As an example, the SO&I team has led analog missions that have focused on bringing together expertise in the sciences (natural, applied and social) and in operations in service of learning how to build and hold together interdisciplinary work environments and what tools are needed to support high tempo, high intensity integrated decisioning. These experiences have provided an essential foundation of knowledge to the VIPER team. Those analogs that specifically influenced the VIPER science operations construct were identified through a process of comparative analysis to prioritize those that offered relevance in whole or in part, and those that did not. The analog research output that provided extensibility to the VIPER science operations architecture included remote teams of humans and robots in cooperation (synchronous and asynchronous) with simulated earthbound systems, engineering and science teams, and the integrated assembly of tools that supported scientific analysis and data synthesis and provided infrastructure for the remote testing framework. Analogs which included real-time data monitoring, synthesis, visualization and access in a democratized and operationalized manner were of particular interest to the development of the VIPER MSC toolset both in terms of the technology and the processes used to develop the supporting infrastructure. We anticipate that each subsequent mission to the lunar south pole, whether with robots or humans, will be able to optimize science and exploration return by evolving strategies to infuse real-time collaborative science-decisioning. Furthermore, these efforts will result in a foundation for science operations development in support of human-robotic exploration of deep space and Mars. NASA analogs can continue to provide the opportunity to prepare, test and iterate on the operational concepts and tools that will support these ever-expanding space exploration efforts. Our presentation will include an overview of the VIPER Science Operations & Integration development process and specifics on what aspects of analog research have had a significant impact on our work systems.

D S S Lim↗

Probabilistic Day-Ahead Forecasting Using an Analog Ensemble Approach for Wind Farm Grid Services

Wind resource assessment and wind power forecasting are used in research and industry to anticipate future power output at scales ranging from individual wind turbines to entire wind farms. Probabilistic day-ahead wind forecasting is useful for anticipating how a wind farm could potentially participate in the day-ahead market by providing upper and lower bounds for expected power generation, thus informing grid operators of its uncertainty. Understanding this uncertainty is part of a larger project focused on building a platform that combines efforts in weather forecasting, aerodynamic and economic modeling to create maximum value of a wind plant to better provide services to the grid. This effort is also known as the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid (A2E2G) project. One method for producing a probabilistic forecast is through the analog ensemble approach (Delle Monache et al., 2011). This method leverages historical forecasts and their corresponding observations as a training data set from which future forecasts can be made. For some future forecast, the most similar historical forecasts (analogs) are identified on a regular time basis such as once per a 3-hour window. The most similar analogs, based on a metric such as root mean square error (RMSE), are recorded and their corresponding verifying observations are used as an ensemble member for this future forecast. Prior work in this area demonstrates improvements over raw Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and shows skill similar to techniques such as logistic regression and machine learning (Delle Monache et al., 2013; Alessandrini et al., 2015). Here, we take the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) day-ahead forecast (0-36 hours) to create a probabilistic day-ahead forecast using an analog ensemble approach. The HRRR has an hourly temporal resolution, with a spatial resolution of 3 km. The 12 UTC HRRR model run is downloaded every day for one year from August 2019 - July 2020, with the first 11 months serving as a bank of analogs from which the forecasting algorithm can create a probabilistic forecast. Once downloaded, the original HRRR forecast is temporally interpolated to 5-minutes, aligning with both the temporal resolution of the observations as well as the timescale relevant for day-ahead power forecasts. The forecast is validated at the M2 tower at the Flatirons Campus of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at a typical wind turbine height of 80 m. Variables such as wind speed, wind direction, and turbulence intensity are incorporated into the probabilistic forecast model and weighted according to their relative importance to the forecast. Based on metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error, the analog ensemble forecast outperforms the raw HRRR forecast during the testing period of July 2020. Figure 1 illustrates an example day-ahead forecast compared against the verifying observations. The general variability and ramps are captured throughout the day, with potential to further improve the analog ensemble model through machine learning techniques.

numerical weather prediction↗