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Diagenesis is key to unlocking outcrop fracture data suitable for quantitative extrapolation to geothermal targets

Exceptionally large, well-exposed sandstone outcrops in New York provide insights into folds, deformation bands, and fractures that could influence permeability, heat exchange, and stimulation outcomes of geothermal reservoir targets. Cambrian Potsdam Sandstone with <5% porosity contains decimeter-scale open, angular-limbed monoclines <0.5 km apart with associated low-porosity mm-wide cataclastic deformation bands. Crossing and abutting relationships among sub-vertical opening-mode fractures show four chronological Sets A–D, striking NNW, NE, NW, and ENE, respectively. Fracture lengths and heights range from millimeters to tens of meters. Sets A and C macro-fractures, and possibly B and D, contain quartz deposits. All sets have abundant associated quartz cemented microfractures that also record set orientations and crosscutting relations. Quartz cement deposits—evidence of diagenesis—are the key to identifying attributes of outcrop fractures suitable for extrapolation to geothermal targets in sandstones because they show which fractures formed in the subsurface. Set A fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures (120°C–129°C) are compatible with fracture at >3 km depth. Fractures are stiff and those ≥0.05 mm (Set C) and ≥0.1 mm (Set A) are open and potentially conducive to flow. Sets A and D are abundant in outcrops with close fracture spacing—0.18 m and 0.68 m, respectively—and define a rectangular connectivity network dominated by crossing and abutting X and Y nodes. Set A aperture distributions follow a power law with slope –0.8 up to 0.15 mm; other sets have lognormal distributions. Set A and D microfractures are weakly clustered, while macro-fractures commonly have 1D anticlustered (regular or periodic) arrangements at shorter length scales (<0.2 m). Sub-horizontal fractures are barren and may have formed near the surface. Fracture heights, lengths, and spatial arrangements show good trace connectivity but low open connectivity. For geothermal applications, outcrop results predict low initial well-test permeabilities owing to quartz disconnecting open fractures, but stimulation of closely spaced microfractures and partly open macro-fractures could yield high surface area for heat exchange. Quantitative extrapolation of key fracture attributes like abundance, orientation, spatial arrangement, length, and open fracture connectivity is possible from outcrops to fractured reservoirs if differing thermal histories and diagenesis are accounted for.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Testing the reliability of interpretable neural networks in geoscience using the Madden–Julian oscillation

Abstract. We test the reliability of two neural network interpretation techniques, backward optimization and layerwise relevance propagation, within geoscientific applications by applying them to a commonly studied geophysical phenomenon, the Madden–Julian oscillation. The Madden–Julian oscillation is a multi-scale pattern within the tropical atmosphere that has been extensively studied over the past decades, which makes it an ideal test case to ensure the interpretability methods can recover the current state of knowledge regarding its spatial structure. The neural networks can, indeed, reproduce the current state of knowledge and can also provide new insights into the seasonality of the Madden–Julian oscillation and its relationships with atmospheric state variables. The neural network identifies the phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation twice as accurately as a linear regression approach, which means that nonlinearities used by the neural network are important to the structure of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Interpretations of the neural network show that it accurately captures the spatial structures of the Madden–Julian oscillation, suggest that the nonlinearities of the Madden–Julian oscillation are manifested through the uniqueness of each event, and offer physically meaningful insights into its relationship with atmospheric state variables. We also use the interpretations to identify the seasonality of the Madden–Julian oscillation and find that the conventionally defined extended seasons should be shifted later by 1 month. More generally, this study suggests that neural networks can be reliably interpreted for geoscientific applications and may thereby serve as a dependable method for testing geoscientific hypotheses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Gender in Mineral Names

Minerals are the fundamental constituents of Earth, and mineral names appear in scientific literature for disciplines including geology, chemistry, materials science, biology, and medicine, among others. Choosing a name is the full responsibility of the authors of new mineral proposals submitted to the International Mineralogical Association (IMA). Scientific nomenclature and its traditions have evolved over time and, consequently, mineral names track changes in the landscape of mineralogy with respect to language, technology, and culture. To evaluate these changes, the namesake information for all 5896 minerals approved by the IMA or ‘grandfathered’ into use as of December 2022 was recorded and categorized within a workable database. The compiled information yields diverse insights into the intersection of science and culture and could also be used to project future trends. In this study, we used the name database to investigate gender diversity among mineral eponyms. More than half (c. 54%) of all mineral species are named after people, the identities of whom are largely a reflection of the people that have historically been involved, in one way or another, in the geosciences and in the mining industry. Of the 2738 people with minerals named for them, approximately 6.1% are (interpreted to be) women. Nearly all minerals named for women were named during the last sixty years, although the rate of growth in the year-on-year percentage of women among new mineral namesakes has slowed since about 1985. If current and historical trends hold, our model predicts that women will not comprise more than about 10.35% of newly established mineral namesakes in future years. The representation of women among mineral namesakes also differs starkly among countries. For example, Russians comprise 43.11% of women with minerals named for them, but account for only 15.12% of all eponyms. However, there are additional disparities beyond the proportions of namesakes. For scientists who were alive when a mineral was named for them, women were an average of 3.74 years older than men when evaluated over the same timespan (1954–2022). These results demonstrate that gender-based disparities are imprinted into current mineral nomenclature and indicate that gender parity among new mineral namesakes is impossible without unprecedented changes in the upstream demographics that are most likely to affect naming trends.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Differentiable modelling to unify machine learning and physical models for geosciences

Process-based modelling offers interpretability and physical consistency in many domains of geosciences but struggles to leverage large datasets efficiently. Machine-learning methods, especially deep networks, have strong predictive skills yet are unable to answer specific scientific questions. Here, in this Perspective, we explore differentiable modelling as a pathway to dissolve the perceived barrier between process-based modelling and machine learning in the geosciences and demonstrate its potential with examples from hydrological modelling. ‘Differentiable’ refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables or parameters, enabling the discovery of high-dimensional unknown relationships. Differentiable modelling involves connecting (flexible amounts of) prior physical knowledge to neural networks, pushing the boundary of physics-informed machine learning. It offers better interpretability, generalizability, and extrapolation capabilities than purely data-driven machine learning, achieving a similar level of accuracy while requiring less training data. Additionally, the performance and efficiency of differentiable models scale well with increasing data volumes. Under data-scarce scenarios, differentiable models have outperformed machine-learning models in producing short-term dynamics and decadal-scale trends owing to the imposed physical constraints. Differentiable modelling approaches are primed to enable geoscientists to ask questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized physical relationships. Future work should address computational challenges, reduce uncertainty, and verify the physical significance of outputs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Diffusion-to-Imbibition Transition in Water Sorption in Nanoporous Media: Theoretical Studies

The ability to predict multiphase fluid transport in nanoporous rocks such as shales is critical for many geoscience applications, for example unconventional hydrocarbon production, geologic carbon sequestration, and nuclear waste disposal. When the pore sizes approach nanoscales, the impact of the molecular interaction forces between fluids and solids becomes increasingly important. These forces can alter macroscopic fluid phase behavior and control transport. Recent experimental studies have shown that capillary condensation and subsequent imbibition of liquid water can occur in hydrophilic nanoporous media even if the vapor phase is at a critical relative humidity (rhcrit) well below vapor saturation. This study presents a theoretical investigation of the processes controlling adsorption, capillary condensation and imbibition in nanoporous media, using the square-gradient classical density functional theory. The proposed theoretical model explicitly includes the relevant interaction forces among fluids and solids in macroscopic porous media. Application of the model to a relative-humidity-controlled water adsorption experiment is presented to demonstrate the impact of water-pore wall attractive forces on multiphase water behavior in a hydrophilic silicon nanoporous medium. Here, the model represents well the measured time-dependent evolution of the water imbibition front inside the nanoporous medium and also explains the diffusion-like water transport regimes observed at rh < rh crit and the imbibition-like flow regimes observed at rh > rh crit . The study furthermore gives an insight on hysteresis phenomenon in adsorption and desorption isotherms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wetting mechanism and alteration of nano-sized shale pores: Insights from contrast variation small angle neutron scattering

Wettability of tight shale is crucial for fluid flow and mass transport process in energy geosciences. However, understanding the interfacial chemistry and wetting mechanisms at sub-nano-pore scales remains a formidable challenge. Here, in this study, the Contrast Variation technique of Small Angle Neutron Scattering (CV-SANS) is employed to investigate shale’s interfacial chemistry using reagents that possess a range of different polarities, including water, n-decane, toluene, and dimethyl methanamide. Through five different experimental strategies, we have demonstrated a successful modification of shale wettability, ranging from enhancement, weakening, to reversal. Delving into the mechanisms, we illustrated the crucial role of pre-existing liquid films in these changes, where the uniquely co-existing polar and non-polar functional groups in dimethyl methanamide acted as a conduit for interfacial chemistry adjustments. Furthermore, a solvent immersion led to matrix dilation as well as liberation of residual oil-occupied pores, resulting in altered pore size distributions, with hydrogen bonding playing a significant role in the polar groups. Interestingly, despite shale exhibiting a stronger affinity for oil over water, hydrophilic solvents induced more substantial dilation than lipophilic ones. Collectively, this work elucidates the dynamic change of interfacial chemistry via the configuration of polarity using chemical reagents, and the CV-SANS technique underscores its invaluable utilities in decoding the interfacial wettability traits in nanopore space of shale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modular Subsurface Sensors and Integrated Software for Advanced Subsurface Characterization and Monitoring using Unoccupied Vehicles

The advent and subsequent proliferation of autonomous airborne, waterborne, and groundbased vehicles (i.e., “drones”) promises to broadly transform the geosciences and associated industries, including fossil energy exploration and development, mineral resource exploration and development, water-resource management, and environmental remediation. For geophysical characterization and monitoring, the prospect of programming highly repeatable and low-cost drone missions for subsurface imaging will allow for deployments in hazardous and previously inaccessible areas. Coupled with autonomous workflows for data processing, management, and visualization, drone-based geophysical characterization and monitoring will enable unprecedented, real-time insight into diverse subsurface properties and processes of scientific and engineering importance. Toward this end, the objectives of this Lab Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project were to develop new (1) instrumentation for dronebased electromagnetic induction (EMI) geophysical imaging, including separated transmitter and receivers and associated electronics, (2) software for real-time data telemetry, processing, management, and visualization. Although EMI has been previously deployed using unoccupied aerial systems (UASs), these applications failed to capitalize on the game-changing capabilities of drone platforms. Whereas drone-based data acquisition allows for collection of rich, three-dimensional (3D) multi-offset/multi-angle configurations between transmitters and receivers, past efforts have relied on conventional instrumentation that was designed for ground-based data collection with the transmitter and a single receiver housed in the same unit; nor did these previous applications demonstrate real-time delivery of results to support rapid management decisions in the field. In this 1-year project, we (1) designed and constructed new lightweight independent transmitter and receiver antenna platforms that communicate with a laptop computer; (2) developed software to control data acquisition, manage/transfer data, and visualize data as its collected; and (3) demonstrated the operation of the new hardware and software systems in a ground-based field test. Our work entails major technological advances for EMI and established a foundation on which to build a new drone-based, real-time geophysical EMI imaging capability to support diverse challenges facing the nation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Overview of the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study Using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. Here, in this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development of Cr, Se, U, Sb, and Te isotopes as indicators of redox reactions, contaminant fate, and contaminant transport in aqueous systems: A review

Cr, Se, U, Sb, and Te are toxic, redox-active elements that are more mobile and environmentally problematic in their oxidized forms, and less mobile and bioavailable in their reduced forms. This chapter reviews the development of Cr, Se, U, Sb, and Te isotope ratio measurements as new indicators of redox reactions and contaminant migration. Reliable analytical methods exist, but are still evolving. Understanding of isotopic fractionation induced by various (bio)geochemical processes has been explored in dozens of publications, yet is far from complete: Reduction reactions, the major driver of isotopic variation, have been relatively well studied. However, the magnitude of fractionation is variable and the systematics of that variation are still being explored. Isotopic fractionation induced by oxidation reactions is not well understood. Non-redox reactions, which involve smaller changes in bonding of these elements, tend to induce less isotopic fractionation, but can nonetheless cause significant isotopic shifts. Field applications of Cr, Se, U isotope ratios have demonstrated that they are useful as indicators of reduction in natural systems. A few studies suggest they are also useful as indicators of oxidation and contaminant sources. The physical and chemical complexity of groundwater systems hinders accurate quantitative interpretation of Cr, Se, U isotope data using simple models. Numerical models have been developed that capture the behavior of complex, coupled systems and enable the most effective extraction of information from field data sets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Appropriate “marginal” farmlands for second‐generation biofuel crops in North Carolina

Abstract Current research on bioenergy crops shows that perennial grasses can yield substantial amounts of dry biomass with relatively low inputs of water and fertilizer. In order to minimize competition with food production, it has been suggested that bioenergy crops could be directed to land areas less suitable for commodity crops, commonly referred to as “marginal” lands. These are land units with inherent limitations to vegetative growth and production, which may be due to several factors (soil physical and chemical properties, climatic conditions, etc.). However the term “marginal” is an adjective with imprecise meaning, and objective criteria for determining “marginal” lands for siting bioenergy crops are necessary. Here we propose that such criteria may be based on soil survey classifications and realistic yield estimates, and we show an example of its use to justify site selection for bioenergy crops in different regions of North Carolina.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Co‐Electrolysis of CO 2 and H 2 O to Syngas on Bimetallic Pd x Cu 1‐ x Catalysts for Tandem Thermochemical Conversion to Carbon Nanofibers

Electrification of chemical production using renewable energy and abundant feedstocks offers a promising pathway for decarbonizing the chemical industry. Current efforts on CO 2 valorization largely focus on making chemicals and fuels. Here, to help achieve net-negative emissions through long-term carbon storage, this study aims to develop efficient electrocatalysts for a tandem electrochemical-thermochemical process to convert CO 2 into carbon nanofibers (CNFs). CO 2 and water are first electrochemically reduced in a membrane electrode assembly (MEA) electrolyzer to produce syngas (CO + H 2 ), which is subsequently fed into a thermochemical packed bed reactor to facilitate CNF growth. This work systematically evaluated Pd x Cu 1-x bimetallic electrocatalysts to assess the effect of Pd–Cu alloying on enhancing syngas production while reducing Pd loading. Transmission electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy confirmed the formation of high-purity, crystalline CNFs, regardless of the syngas composition from the MEA. In situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction measurements revealed that increasing Cu content in the Pd x Cu 1-x alloy progressively inhibited palladium hydride formation, consistent with DFT calculations on the stability of Pd x Cu 1-x under reducing electrochemical potentials.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Enhancing Acidic Oxygen Evolution Activity by Controlling Oxidation State of Iridium

Iridium oxides with high oxidation states have been reported to be effective in enhancing the acidic oxygen evolution reaction (OER) performance. In this work, we develop ultrasmall IrO x nanoparticles (NPs) over titanium nitride (TiN), which undergoes surface oxidation under oxidative conditions to form oxygen‐modified TiN (oxi‐TiN), enabling the formation of highly oxidized Ir δ+ (δ > 4). This IrO x /oxi‐TiN catalyst delivers higher Ir mass activity than commercial IrO 2 , while comparable stability is maintained. The superior OER activity of IrO x /oxi‐TiN is further demonstrated in a proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer (PEMWE), requiring only 1.88 V to reach 3 A cm −2 , achieving the U.S. Department of Energy 2025 target (1.90 V at 3 A cm −2 ). In situ X‐ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) confirms that the superior OER activity of IrO x /oxi‐TiN originates from highly oxidized Ir δ+ under OER conditions. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations reveal a general correlation between the oxidation state of Ir and OER overpotential. Specifically, the introduction of interfacial oxygen at the Ir/TiN interface increases the oxidation state of deposited Ir δ+ from δ < 4 to δ > 4, decreasing the OER overpotential. This study highlights the critical role of high oxidation states of Ir δ+ in enhancing OER activity, providing guidance for the development of advanced acidic OER catalysts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rejection of low-molecular weight neutral organics is highly sensitive to reverse osmosis system design and operation

A computational model was developed to investigate the significance of system design and operating conditions on the rejection of neutral, low-MW organics by reverse osmosis for potable reuse. Here, the model demonstrated that the decrease in local rejection as net driving pressure decreases is substantially greater for moderately rejected compounds than for highly rejected compounds. At recovery values less than 70%, the local permeate concentration can exceed the pressure vessel feed concentration for moderately rejected compounds. System-level rejection of moderately rejected compounds is likewise substantially more sensitive to operating conditions than highly rejected compounds. The findings highlight a drawback of relying on rejection results from bench-scale testing that operates at low recovery, which invariably has higher rejection than full-scale systems operating at similar pressure. The analysis demonstrates a trade-off in which the low-pressure, high-recovery operation desired for potable reuse systems can be detrimental to the removal of low-MW neutral organics. The removal of low-MW neutral organics can be improved if organics rejection is explicitly evaluated during the design process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparative clumped isotope temperature relationships in freshwater carbonates

Lacustrine, riverine and spring carbonates represent archives of terrestrial climates and their geochemistry has been used to study palaeoenvironments. Clumped isotope thermometry is an emerging tool that has been applied to freshwater carbonates. Limited work has been done to evaluate comparative relationships between clumped isotopes and temperature in different types of modern freshwater carbonates. This study assembles an extensive calibration data set with 135 samples of modern freshwater carbonates from 96 sites and constrains the relationship between independent observations of water temperature and the clumped isotopic composition of carbonates (denoted by Δ 47 ), including new measurements, and recalculates published data in accordance with current community-defined standard values. For temperature reconstruction, the study reports a composite freshwater calibration and material-specific calibrations for biogenic carbonates (freshwater gastropods and bivalves), fine-grained carbonate (e.g. micrites), biologically mediated carbonates (microbialites and tufas) and travertines. Material-specific calibration trends show a convergence of slopes that are in agreement with recently published syntheses, but statistically significant differences in intercepts occur between some materials (e.g. some biogenics, fine-grained carbonates). These differences may arise due to unresolved seasonal biases, kinetic isotope effects and/or varying degrees of biological influence. The impact of different calibrations is shown through application to new data for glacial and deglacial age travertines from Austria and published data sets. While material-specific calibrations may yield more accurate results for biogenic and fine-grained carbonate samples, the use of material-specific and the composite freshwater calibrations generally produces values within 1.0–1.5°C of each other, and typically fall within calibration uncertainty given limitations of precision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Plant responses to elevated CO 2 under competing hypotheses of nitrogen and phosphorus limitations

Abstract The future ecosystem carbon cycle has important implications for biosphere‐climate feedback. The magnitude of future plant growth and carbon accumulation depends on plant strategies for nutrient uptake under the stresses of nitrogen (N) versus phosphorus (P) limitations. Two archetypal theories have been widely acknowledged in the literature to represent N and P limitations on ecosystem processes: Liebig's Law of the Minimum (LLM) and the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) approach. LLM states that the more limiting nutrient controls plant growth, and commonly leads to predictions of dramatically dampened ecosystem carbon accumulation over the 21st century. Conversely, the MEL approach recognizes that plants possess multiple pathways to coordinate N and P availability and invest resources to alleviate N or P limitation. We implemented these two contrasting approaches in the E3SM model, and compiled 98 in situ forest N or P fertilization experiments to evaluate how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to N and P limitations. We find that MEL better captured the observed plant responses to nutrient perturbations globally, compared with LLM. Furthermore, LLM and MEL diverged dramatically in responses to elevated CO 2 concentrations, leading to a two‐fold difference in CO 2 fertilization effects on Net Primary Productivity by the end of the 21st century. The larger CO 2 fertilization effects indicated by MEL mainly resulted from plant mediation on N and P resource supplies through N 2 fixation and phosphatase activities. This analysis provides quantitative evidence of how different N and P limitation strategies can diversely affect future carbon and nutrient dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental and numerical studies of seismic fluid-structure interaction in a base-supported cylindrical vessel

Seismic design and qualification of advanced reactors will rely heavily on the use of verified and validated numerical models capable of capturing the interaction of the vessel, its contained fluid, and the internal equipment: fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis. Analytical solutions can be used for preliminary sizing and design of such vessels but their application is limited to simple geometries and boundary conditions, and small amplitude, translational (and rotational) inputs. To validate numerical models for seismic FSI analysis in finite element codes, a comprehensive set of experiments was performed on a liquid-filled cylindrical vessel, using a 6 degree-of-freedom earthquake simulator. Results in terms of sloshing frequency, damping ratio in sloshing modes, and hydrodynamic responses (wave height, hydrodynamic pressure, base shear, and base moment) for multi-directional earthquake simulator inputs are reported and compared with analytical solutions for liquid-filled vessels. The impact of seismic (base) isolation on hydrodynamic responses was studied using earthquake simulator inputs generated using a virtual isolation system. Data from the experiments are used to validate a numerical model of the fluid-filled vessel using the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) solver in the commercial finite element program LS-DYNA. Validation studies are presented for multi-directional seismic inputs, including rocking motions. Lagrangian modeling approaches using an elastic material formulation for the fluid are also investigated and their limitations and possible applications are identified. Here, the results are broadly applicable to the seismic response of base supported, liquid-filled vessels.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Variability of near-fault seismic risk to reinforced concrete buildings based on high-resolution physics-based ground motion simulations

Broadband physics-based simulated earthquake ground motions are utilized to characterize the regional-scale seismic risk to modern reinforced concrete (RC) structures. A highly dense dataset of ground motions covering a 100-km urn:x-wiley:00988847:media:eqe3413:eqe3413-math-0001 40-km domain was generated using kinematic fault rupture models with varying rupture characteristics to represent shallow crustal earthquakes and resolved up to frequencies of 5 Hz. Over 40,000 nonlinear response history simulations of short- and mid-rise RC special moment frame buildings were conducted using simulation models that are capable of representing nonlinear behavior and component deterioration effects. The spatial variability of structural risk within a single earthquake scenario and between different rupture scenarios is examined, and the regions of strongest directivity effects and highest structural demands are identified. The structural demands may vary by factor of up to 8.0 at very short distances from the fault, and the large dispersion in the demands decreases significantly beyond a distance of 15 km. The interstory drift and member rotation demands are substantially impacted by important features of the geological structure and the characteristics of the rupture scenarios, particularly the presence of localized high-slip regions. The frequency characteristics of the structures are found to play an important role in determining the effects of near-fault ground motions on the structural response and expected damage. The results of this study suggest that the simulated ground motions, particularly those generated using the hybrid rupture approach, may offer reasonable structural risk estimates for low-frequency structures and conservative estimates for high-frequency structures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗