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DOE OSTI2015

Predictive Engineering Tools for Injection-Molded Long-Carbon-Fiber Thermoplastic Composites (FY 2015 Third Quarterly Report)

During the third quarter of FY 2015, the following technical progress has been made toward project milestones: 1) Magna oversaw the tool build and prepared the molding plan for the complex part of Phase II. 2) PlastiComp hosted a visit by Magna and Toyota on April 23rd to finalize the molding scope and schedule. The plan for molding trials including selection of molding parameters for both LFT and D-LFT for the U-shape complex part was established. 3) Toyota shipped the U-shape complex part tool to Magna on May 28th, 2015. 4) Plasticomp provided 30wt% LCF/PP and 30wt% LCF/PA66 compounded pellets to Magna for molding the complex part. 5) Magna performed preliminary molding trials on June 2nd, 2015 to validate wall thickness, fill profile, tool temperature and shot size requirements for the complex part. 6) Magna performed the first complex part run on June 16th and 17th, 2015 at Magna’s Composite Centre of Excellence in Concord, ON, Canada. Dale Roland of Plasticomp, and Umesh Gandhi of Toyota also attended the molding. 7) Magna discussed and finalized the plan with PNNL and the team for cutting samples from molded parts at selected locations for fiber orientation and length measurements. 8) Magna provided the computer-aided design (CAD) files of the complex parts with and without ribs to PNNL and Autodesk to build the corresponding ASMI models for injection molding simulations. Magna also provided the actual parameters used. 9) Plasticomp’s provided knowledge and experience of molding LCF materials essential to the successful molding of the parts including optimization of fill speed, tool temperatures, and plasticizing conditions for the 30wt% LCF/PP and 30wt% LCF/PA66 materials in both rib and non-rib versions. 10) Magna molded additional parts for evaluation of mechanical property testing including torsional stiffness on June 29th and 30th, 2015 at Magna’s Composite Center of Excellence. 11) Toyota began preparation for the torsion test of the specimens. Preparation of a computer-aided engineering (CAE) model to predict the performance is in progress. 12) Autodesk fixed an error in the implementation of the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) calculation of fiber length that had caused the ASMI solution to crash and provided an updated build of ASMI containing the fix. 13)Autodesk reviewed and provided feedback for the complex part molding and measurement locations. 14) Autodesk provided support to set up the workflow for ASMI-ABAQUS® analysis, and provided a fix and workaround for a bug in the ASMI-ABAQUS® output command. 15) Autodesk helped build ASMI analysis models for the complex parts with and without ribs. 16) Autodesk worked on improving the orientation prediction accuracy in the shearing layer for 3D meshes based on comparison to measured data of the plaque moldings. 17) PNNL installed a new ASMI version received from Autodesk and performed comparative analyses to assess mid-plane versus 3D fiber length predictions using the full fiber length model and the reduced-order model (ROM) using POD. 18) PNNL presented the project scope, accomplishments, significant results and future plans to DOE and the USCAR Materials Tech Team on June 3rd, 2015. 19) PNNL discussed the cutting of samples from molded parts and finalized a plan with Magna and the team suggesting the sample size, locations and number of samples per location. 20) PNNL and Autodesk built ASMI models for the complex parts with and without ribs, and preliminary analyses of the part with ribs were conducted using the actual molding parameters received from Magna. 21) PNNL worked on a procedure to extract fiber orientation and length results from a 3D ASMI analysis to a 3D ABAQUS model. This procedure is essential to import ASMI fiber orientation and length to a 3D ABAQUS model of the part allowing future part structural analysis for weight reduction study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

PHYSICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF ∼2 m DIAMETER NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID 2015 TC25: A POSSIBLE BOULDER FROM E-TYPE ASTEROID (44) NYSA

Small near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) (<20 m) are interesting, because they are progenitors for meteorites in our terrestrial collection. The physical characteristics of these small NEAs are crucial to our understanding of the effectiveness of our atmosphere in filtering low-strength impactors. In the past, the characterization of small NEAs has been a challenge, because of the difficulty in detecting them prior to close Earth flyby. In this study, we physically characterized the 2 m diameter NEA 2015 TC25 using ground-based optical, near-infrared and radar assets during a close flyby of the Earth (distance 128,000 km) in 2015 October 12. Our observations suggest that its surface composition is similar to aubrites, a rare class of high-albedo differentiated meteorites. Aubrites make up only 0.14% of all known meteorites in our terrestrial meteorite collection. 2015 TC25 is also a very fast rotator with a period of 133 ± 6 s. We combined the spectral and dynamical properties of 2015 TC25 and found the best candidate source body in the inner main belt to be the 70 km diameter E-type asteroid (44) Nysa. We attribute the difference in spectral slope between the two objects to the lack of regolith on the surface of 2015 TC25. Using the albedo of E-type asteroids (50%–60%) we refine the diameter of 2015 TC25 to 2 m, making it one of the smallest NEAs ever to be characterized.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2015

2015 Annual Report for the Flight Opportunities Program

Welcome to this third edition of the Flight Opportunities program annual report. In this edition, we continue our story of pathfinding NASA's role in the partnership with the U.S. commercial space and space technology R&D communities to advance national space interests and develop technologies critical to NASA's future missions. 2015 was the year in which a planned change to our payload solicitation strategy saw its first tangible result. As you might remember from our 2014 annual report, in 2015 we set out to facilitate a more direct interaction between flight providers and technology developers by providing fixed funding awards to researchers to directly purchase the flight service(s) that best meet their needs. The selection and award of the first six REDDI-F1 flight grants to non-U.S. government researchers was an important milestone in this regard. From now on, using the REDDI-F1 solicitation appendix, the program will enable non-U.S. government researchers to directly purchase flight services on the emerging suborbital market. The same (or similar) commercial flight services will be available to NASA and other U.S. government agencies (OGA) through commercial contracts that NASA has established through our program. For the latter, our program is available to provide campaign management services, similar to the role we play(ed) for technology payloads remaining in our pool from earlier selections. The full impact of this broader strategic change will likely become more visible in the years ahead as our legacy pool gets depleted and we have implemented a new NASA- and OGA-specific call for proposals. One observation that can already be made after two rounds of REDDI-F1 solicitations is that through this change, the list of commercial flight service providers of interest to non-U.S. government researchers has grown from five in 2014 to nine in 2015. On the industry development front, our Announcement of Collaborative Opportunities (ACO) solicitation was promoted to an STMD-wide solicitation and released in 2015 in combination with the Tipping Point solicitation. A total of 22 awards was announced in November 2015, 12 of which are ACO awards, and six of these are funded by Flight Opportunities. Through these ACO awards, the program funds NASA technical expertise and NASA test facilities to aid industry partners in maturing key space technologies, in our case focusing on small launch vehicle technology development. Flight test activity in 2015 saw a steady 13 campaigns with 31 payload-flights (29 unique payloads). Thirteen new payloads were selected into the program in FY2015, and 14 payloads completed flight testing, bringing the total number of completed technology demonstration payloads to 69. Overall, we are pleased with the evolution and growth of the Flight Opportunities program and look forward to continued success in our partnership with the technology R&D community and the commercial space sector.

Flight Testing↗
DOE OSTI2016

High Performance Computing Facility Operational Assessment 2015: Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility

Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) continues to surpass its operational target goals: supporting users; delivering fast, reliable systems; creating innovative solutions for high-performance computing (HPC) needs; and managing risks, safety, and security aspects associated with operating one of the most powerful computers in the world. The results can be seen in the cutting-edge science delivered by users and the praise from the research community. Calendar year (CY) 2015 was filled with outstanding operational results and accomplishments: a very high rating from users on overall satisfaction that ties the highest-ever mark set in CY 2014; the greatest number of core-hours delivered to research projects; the largest percentage of capability usage since the OLCF began tracking the metric in 2009; and success in delivering on the allocation of 60, 30, and 10% of core hours offered for the INCITE (Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment), ALCC (Advanced Scientific Computing Research Leadership Computing Challenge), and Director’s Discretionary programs, respectively. These accomplishments, coupled with the extremely high utilization rate, represent the fulfillment of the promise of Titan: maximum use by maximum-size simulations. The impact of all of these successes and more is reflected in the accomplishments of OLCF users, with publications this year in notable journals Nature, Nature Materials, Nature Chemistry, Nature Physics, Nature Climate Change, ACS Nano, Journal of the American Chemical Society, and Physical Review Letters, as well as many others. The achievements included in the 2015 OLCF Operational Assessment Report reflect first-ever or largest simulations in their communities; for example Titan enabled engineers in Los Angeles and the surrounding region to design and begin building improved critical infrastructure by enabling the highest-resolution Cybershake map for Southern California to date. The Titan system provides the largest extant heterogeneous architecture for computing and computational science. Usage is high, delivering on the promise of a system well-suited for capability simulations for science. This success is due in part to innovations in tracking and reporting the activity on the compute nodes, and using this information to further enable and optimize applications, extending and balancing workload across the entire node. The OLCF continues to invest in innovative processes, tools, and resources necessary to meet continuing user demand. The facility’s leadership in data analysis and workflows was featured at the Department of Energy (DOE) booth at SC15, for the second year in a row, highlighting work with researchers from the National Library of Medicine coupled with unique computational and data resources serving experimental and observational data across facilities. Effective operations of the OLCF play a key role in the scientific missions and accomplishments of its users. Building on the exemplary year of 2014, as shown by the 2014 Operational Assessment Report (OAR) review committee response in Appendix A, this OAR delineates the policies, procedures, and innovations implemented by the OLCF to continue delivering a multi-petaflop resource for cutting-edge research. This report covers CY 2015, which, unless otherwise specified, denotes January 1, 2015, through December 31, 2015.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Energy and Economic Impacts of U.S. Federal Energy and Water Conservation Standards Adopted From 1987 Through 2015

This paper presents estimates of the key impacts of Federal energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2015. The standards for consumer products and commercial and industrial equipment include those set by legislation as well as standards adopted by DOE through rulemaking. In 2015, the standards saved an estimated 4.49 quads of primary energy, which is equivalent to 5% of total U.S. energy consumption. The savings in operating costs for households and businesses totaled $63.4 billion. The average household saved $320 in operating costs as a result of residential appliance standards. The estimated reduction in CO2 emissions associated with the standards in 2015 was 238 million metric tons, which is equivalent to 4.3% of total U.S. CO2 emissions. The estimated cumulative energy savings over the period 1990-2090 amount to 216.9 quads. Accounting for the increased upfront costs of more-efficient products and the operating cost (energy and water) savings over the products’ lifetime, the standards have a cumulative net present value (NPV) of consumer benefit of between $1,627 billion and $1,887 billion, using 7 percent and 3 percent discount rates, respectively. The water conservation standards, together with energy conservation standards that also save water, reduced water use by 1.9 trillion gallons in 2015 and estimated cumulative water savings by 2090 amount to 55 trillion gallons. The estimated consumer savings in 2015 from reduced water use amounted to $12 billon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

2015 South Carolina PV Soft Cost and Workforce Development Part 2: Six Month Confirmation of Anticipated Job Growth

In 2015, a program was initiated to carefully track and monitor the growth of the solar industry in SC. Prior to then, little information was available on the costs associated with distributed photovoltaic (PV) installations in the Southeastern US. For this report, data were collected from businesses on the number of hires they had at the end of 2014 and compared with data for 2015 and June 2016. It was found that the percentage of installers within the state who serve the residential sector increased to 82% from 67%. During the same time period, the average size of initiated installations for residential, commercial, and utility scale installations all trended upwards. Where residential installations were typically 5 kW-DC in 2014, they were typically 10 kW-DC by late 2015 and in mid-2016. For commercial installations, the average size grew from 84 kW-DC in 2014 to between 136-236 kW-DC in 2015 and then 188-248 kWDC in mid-2016. An exception was seen in utility scale installations where a 2.3 MW-DC system was common in 2014, the size grew to be 5-15 MW-DC in late 2015. The average size dropped 3.1-4.4 MWDC in mid-June 2016, though individual averages up to 20 MW-DC were reported.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Nevada National Security Site 2015 Waste Management Monitoring Report Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites

Environmental monitoring data are collected at and around the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMSs) within the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). These data include direct radiation exposure, as well as radiation from the air, groundwater, meteorology, and vadose zone. This report summarizes the 2015 environmental data to provide an overall evaluation of RWMS performance and to support environmental compliance and performance assessment (PA) activities. Some of these data (e.g., radiation exposure, air, and groundwater) are presented in other reports developed by National Security Technologies, LLC. Direct radiation monitoring data indicate exposure levels at the RWMSs are within the range of background levels measured at the NNSS. Slightly elevated exposure levels outside the Area 3 RWMS are attributed to nearby historical aboveground nuclear weapons tests. Air monitoring data show that tritium concentrations in water vapor and americium and plutonium concentrations in air particles are below Derived Concentration Standards for these radionuclides. Groundwater monitoring data indicate the groundwater in the uppermost aquifer beneath the Area 5 RWMS is not impacted by RWMS operations. Results of groundwater analysis from wells around the Area 5 RWMS were all below established investigation levels. Leachate samples collected from the leachate collection system at the mixed low-level waste cell were below established contaminant regulatory limits. During 2015, precipitation at the Area 3 RWMS was 0.9% above average, and precipitation at the Area 5 RWMS was 25% above average. Water balance measurements indicate that evapotranspiration from the vegetated weighing lysimeter dries the soil and prevents downward percolation of precipitation more effectively than evaporation as measured from the bare-soil weighing lysimeter. The 1.8 inches of precipitation in September reached the lowest sensors at 180 cm on the Cell 5S and 5N covers, however the sensors on the floor do not indicate any signs of the precipitation percolating thru the waste to the floor. Moisture from precipitation did not percolate below 150 centimeters (cm) (5 feet [ft]) in the vegetated final cover on the U-3ax/bl disposal unit at the Area 3 RWMS. A second remedial revegetation trial was done on the southern portion of the North Cover. In March 2015 it was determined that germination occurred on both the mulched and non-mulched treatments that were irrigated, but that no germination occurred on the non-irrigated treatments. By June the seedlings observed in March were gone, possibly grazed by rabbits which were observed inside the rabbit-proof fence. In August the entire area was sprayed with the herbicide glyphosate in an attempt to minimize weed seed production. During 2015, there was no drainage through 2.4 meters (8 ft) of soil as indicated from the Area 3 drainage lysimeters that received only natural precipitation. Thirty-one percent of the applied precipitation and irrigation drained from the bare-soil drainage lysimeter, which received 3 times the natural precipitation. All 2015 monitoring data indicate that the Area 3 and Area 5 RWMSs are performing within expectations of the model and parameter assumptions for the facilities’ PAs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

National Cost-Effectiveness of the Residential Provisions of the 2015 IECC

This analysis focuses on one- and two-family dwellings, townhomes, and low-rise multifamily residential buildings based on the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). PNNL evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the changes in the prescriptive and mandatory residential provisions of the 2015 edition of the IECC, hereafter referred to as the 2015 IECC, compared to those in the 2012 and 2009 IECC. The current analysis builds on the PNNL technical report titled 2015 IECC: Energy Savings Analysis (Mendon et al. 2015) which identified the prescriptive and mandatory changes introduced by the 2015 IECC compared to the 2012 IECC and determined their energy savings impact.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

M31N 2008-12a—the remarkable recurrent nova in M31: panchromatic observations of the 2015 eruption

The Andromeda Galaxy recurrent nova M31N 2008-12a had been observed in eruption 10 times, including yearly eruptions from 2008 to 2014. With a measured recurrence period of P{sub rec}=351±13 days (we believe the true value to be half of this) and a white dwarf very close to the Chandrasekhar limit, M31N 2008-12a has become the leading pre-explosion supernova type Ia progenitor candidate. Following multi-wavelength follow-up observations of the 2013 and 2014 eruptions, we initiated a campaign to ensure early detection of the predicted 2015 eruption, which triggered ambitious ground- and space-based follow-up programs. In this paper we present the 2015 detection, visible to near-infrared photometry and visible spectroscopy, and ultraviolet and X-ray observations from the Swift observatory. The LCOGT 2 m (Hawaii) discovered the 2015 eruption, estimated to have commenced at August 28.28 ± 0.12 UT. The 2013–2015 eruptions are remarkably similar at all wavelengths. New early spectroscopic observations reveal short-lived emission from material with velocities ∼13,000 km s{sup −1}, possibly collimated outflows. Photometric and spectroscopic observations of the eruption provide strong evidence supporting a red giant donor. An apparently stochastic variability during the early supersoft X-ray phase was comparable in amplitude and duration to past eruptions, but the 2013 and 2015 eruptions show evidence of a brief flux dip during this phase. The multi-eruption Swift/XRT spectra show tentative evidence of high-ionization emission lines above a high-temperature continuum. Following Henze et al. (2015a), the updated recurrence period based on all known eruptions is P{sub rec}=174±10 days, and we expect the next eruption of M31N 2008-12a to occur around 2016 mid-September.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2015

2015 Sensorimotor Risk Standing Review Panel Evidence and Status Review For: the Risk of Impaired Control of Spacecraft/Associated Systems and Decreased Mobility Due to Vestibular/Sensorimotor Alterations Associated with Spaceflight

The 2015 Sensorimotor Risk Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) participated in a WebEx/teleconference with members of the Human Health Countermeasures (HHC) Element, representatives from the Human Research Program (HRP), NASA Headquarters, and NASA Research and Education Support Services (NRESS) on December 17, 2015 (list of participants is in Section VI of this report). The SRP reviewed the new Evidence Report for the Risk of Impaired Control of Spacecraft/Associated Systems and Decreased Mobility Due to Vestibular/Sensorimotor Alterations Associated with Spaceflight (from here on referred to as the 2015 Sensorimotor Evidence Report), and also received a status review of the Risk. The opening section of the 2015 Sensorimotor Evidence Report provides written descriptions of various incidents that have occurred during space missions. In most of these incidents, the main underlying contributing factors are not easy to identify unambiguously. For example, in section 1.9, a number of falls occurred while astronauts were walking on the moon. It is not clear to the SRP, however, why they fell. It is only possible to extrapolate from likely specific psychophysical or physiological abnormalities, but how these abnormalities were determined, and how they were directly responsible for the falls is unclear to the SRP. Section 2.1.2 on proprioception is very interesting, but the functional significance of the abnormalities detected is not clear. The SRP sees this as a problem throughout the report: a mapping between the component abnormalities identified and the holistic behaviors that are most relevant, for example, controlling the vehicle, and locomotion during egress, is generally lacking. The SRP thinks the cognitive section is too strongly focused on vestibular functioning. The SRP questions the notion that the main cognitive effects are mainly attributable to reversible vestibular changes induced by spaceflight. The SRP thinks that there can also be independent cognitive effects. The Functional Task Test (FTT) protocols and the Field Test are particularly valuable. The conclusion is that the unloading of major postural muscles experienced during spaceflight plays a central role in the alteration of functional task performance and balance control. This conclusion stands in contrast with the statements in other parts of the document that emphasize the role of vestibular changes on these functions. It would help to more fully integrate these two views on the predominant effects of spaceflight. Although the SRP thinks the countermeasures section is interesting, the proposed countermeasures are not well integrated with the abnormalities described in previous sections. The SRP thinks it would help enormously to have explicit links among each abnormality, its 2015 Sensorimotor Risk SRP Evidence Review Final Report 2 overall importance/impact on function, and the appropriate countermeasure that can be implemented to maintain adequate functioning.

Steinberg, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Appreciation of the 2015 JGR Space Physics Peer Reviewers

The Editors of the Journal of Geophysical Research Space Physics are deeply indebted to the many people among the research community that serve this journal through peer review. The journal could not exist without the time and effort invested by the community through this voluntary activity, providing expert evaluations and thoughtful assessments of the work of others. In 2015, the journal had 1506 scientists contribute to the process with at least one peer review, for a total of 3575 reviews completed, including additional reviews of resubmitted manuscripts. There were 277 reviewers that contributed four or more reports in 2015. The average number of reviews per referee in 2015 was, therefore, 2.4. Note that the total number of manuscript final decisions (i.e., accept or reject) for Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR) Space Physics was 1147 in 2015. Of this, 774 were accepted and 373 were declined, for an acceptance rate of 67% last year. If the 1334 "revision" decisions are included in the tally, then the total number of decisions made in 2015 was 2481. Working out the arithmetic, it means that on average, a manuscript gets about 1.2 revision decisions before a final accept-or-reject decision. This explains the ~3.1 average number of reviews per manuscript throughout each paper's lifetime in the submission-revision editorial process. We are pleased and happy that the research community is willing and able to devote their resources toward this service endeavor. We appreciate each and every one of you that helped maintain the high quality of papers in JGR Space Physics last year. We look forward to another excellent year working with all of you through the year ahead.

Liemohn, Michael W.↗
DOE OSTI2016

2015 Peer Review Report

In the spring and summer of 2015, the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO or the Office) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) implemented an external peer review of the projects in its research, development and demonstration (RD&D) portfolio. The Office manages a diverse portfolio of technologies across the spectrum of applied RD&D within the dynamic context of changing budgets and Administration priorities. The Office portfolio is organized according to the biomass-to-bioenergy supply chain—from the feedstock source to the end user (see Figure 1)—with major focus on feedstock supply and biomass conversion. The 2015 Project Peer Review took place March 23-27, 2015, outside of Washington, D.C., in Alexandria, Virginia, and evaluated most of the publicly funded projects in BETO’s portfolio. The subsequent Program Management Review took place on June 25, 2015, in Washington, D.C., and provided an Office- level assessment of strategic planning and programmatic initiatives. The peer review process enables external stakeholders to provide feedback on the responsible use of taxpayer funding and develop recommendations for the most efficient and effective ways to accelerate the development of an advanced bioenergy industry. The planning and execution of these reviews was completed over the course of 10 months, and this report includes the results of both events.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

2015 Advanced Site Investigation and Monitoring Report Riverton, Wyoming, Processing Site September 2016

The U.S. Department of Energy conducted initial groundwater characterization of the Riverton, Wyoming, Processing Site in the 1990s. The characterization culminated in a Site Observational Work Plan in 1998 that recommended a natural flushing compliance strategy. Results of verification monitoring indicated that natural flushing was generally progressing as expected until June 2010, when significant increases in contaminant concentrations were measured in several monitoring wells downgradient of the site after the area flooded. In response to the unexpected results following the flood, an enhanced characterization of the surficial aquifer was conducted in 2012, which included installation of 103 boreholes along nine transects with a Geoprobe, collection of 103 water samples and 65 soil samples, laboratory tests on the soil samples, and additional groundwater modeling. This advanced site investigation report summarizes additional investigation in 2015 through the use of backhoe trenching, sonic drilling, multilevel monitoring wells, direct-push drilling, and temporary well points to collect soil and groundwater samples. Additional surface water measurements were made included the installation of a stilling well and the measurement of stream elevation along the Wind River to approximate upgradient groundwater heads. Groundwater sampling included the addition of geochemical constituents and isotopes that have not been sampled in the past to better understand post-flood conditions and the possibility of additional or ongoing contaminant sources. This sampling was performed to (1) better define the contaminant plumes, (2) verify the occurrence of persistent secondary contaminant sources, (3) better understand the reason for the contaminant spikes after a 2010 flood, and (4) assess contaminant plume stagnation near the Little Wind River. This report provides data analyses and interpretations for the 2015 site investigation that addresses these issues and provides recommendations for future efforts. Observations from trenches and sonic drilling indicate the general lithology of the shallow, unconsolidated sediments consists of a silt zone at the surface that ranges from 2.5 to 4.8 feet below ground surface, underlain by sand and gravel, underlain by the top of the weathered bedrock (Wind River Formation). Soil data from trenches and sonic drilling indicate (1) elevated concentrations of several constituents in the silt zone, likely due to the formation of evaporites, (2) uranium is the only measured element that appears to be concentrated in the silt over the groundwater contaminant plume, (3) in the former tailings impoundment area, there may be a thin unsaturated zone with elevated uranium in the native material just below the fill, (4) in the former tailings impoundment area, slightly higher uranium concentrations occur in the underlying saturated sand and gravel, and (5) several bedrock samples have a unique geochemical signature, generally related to a higher silt content. Assessment of groundwater flow included measuring river elevations along the Wind River and installing the temporary well points adjacent to the Little Wind River that provided additional data points to refine contours for water table elevations. These data confirm past interpretations of groundwater flow to the southeast across the site toward the Little Wind River. Hydraulic head elevations between paired surficial and semiconfined aquifer wells indicate variable vertical gradients across the site with the potential for upward and downward flow. Additional direct-push drilling and groundwater sampling confirmed the contaminant plume configuration, but it also revealed a low-sulfate-concentration zone at the edge of the former tailings impoundment. Temporary well points provided better definition of plume concentrations at the bank of the Little Wind River, and data from these wells indicate plume discharge to the river. Additional sampling in an area southwest of the plume that had elevated uranium groundwater concentrations in the past did not have any uranium concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum concentration limit for uranium. Results from multilevel monitoring wells indicate some geochemical differences with depth, but overall concentrations are similar to those in nearby conventional monitoring wells in the long-term monitoring program. Geochemistry data from these multilevel monitoring wells confirm the general increase in contaminant concentrations toward the river and toward the plume centerline for chloride, sulfate, and uranium but highlight geochemical controls on calcium. Iron data indicate slightly reducing conditions, especially near water table and bedrock surfaces, with more oxidizing conditions in the middle of the sand and gravel. Uranium activity ratios (234U/238U) confirm the uranium plume in the surficial aquifer as being mill related, and the area to the southwest outside the plume as natural, non-mill related. In the semiconfined aquifer, evidence of aquifer connection and impacts from the mill is inconclusive. Values of δD and δ 18 O suggest water is derived from different sources and tritium data confirm that the semiconfined aquifer water is generally older than the surficial aquifer water. However, these data do indicate some groundwater communication from the surficial aquifer into the semiconfined aquifer, which resulted in δD and δ 18 O and tritium values in the semiconfined aquifer that are more similar to those in the surficial aquifer. Values of δ 34 S sulfate in the semiconfined aquifer combined with sulfate concentrations indicate the potential for some mill- related sulfate in the semiconfined aquifer, albeit limited to an area near and beneath the former tailings impoundment. Uranium and molybdenum concentrations in the semiconfined aquifer are below groundwater standards in all wells. However, the elevated molybdenum concentrations at one semiconfined aquifer well underneath the former tailings impoundment suggests a mill- derived source for the uranium and molybdenum in that well. It is possible that aquifer cross- communication occurred when the tailings impoundment was active and created a higher head. Current cross-communication appears unlikely given the large differences in tritium values and an upward hydraulic head at this location. Nine domestic wells are located within the institutional control boundary (eight in the confined aquifer and one in the semiconfined aquifer). Uranium and molybdenum concentrations in all samples collected from these wells were one or two orders of magnitude below the groundwater standards. Surface water flow in the Little Wind River in September 2015 was low compared to historical averages for that time of year. As a result, the uranium concentration measured in the Little Wind River was at a historical maximum at the sampling location upstream of the site. However, the impact of uranium discharge from the groundwater plume into the Little Wind River was not measureable. Elevated sulfate concentrations were observed in an outfall ditch related to an active sulfuric acid plant. Uranium concentrations in the oxbow lake remain at concentrations above the groundwater standard. Plume contaminant concentrations had returned to levels found prior to the 2010 flood by the end of 2015. However, these concentrations still exceed model predictions for natural flushing, and the current data indicate that natural flushing to achieve remediation goals within the 100-year time period is not likely, especially with the high potential for additional floods in the update to the conceptual site model (CSM), soil data indicate additional contaminant sources, specifically uranium, in evaporites within the silt layer over the uranium plume and in naturally reduced zones (NRZs). Additional zones of slightly elevated uranium concentration are in the native sediments just above the water table but below the fill layer in the former tailings impoundment area. This area also has slightly elevated uranium in the sand and gravel below the water table. Mass balance calculations indicate that small amounts of dissolution in any of these zones with increased uranium in the solid phase can produce groundwater uranium concentrations above the groundwater standard and could account for the post-flood uranium spike. The additional uranium near the former tailings impoundment provides a mechanism for a continuing source for the uranium plume that was not considered in earlier natural flushing models. In addition, uranium released from the silt layer or the NRZs seasonally and during flooding may add uranium to the groundwater plume near the Little Wind River. These mechanisms provide a possible explanation for plume persistence, along with spikes in concentrations during floods, that creates the current plume configuration. Additional updates to the CSM include (1) chloride flushes more rapidly than uranium beneath the former mill site, (2) chloride in the silt layer provides a scenario in which chloride cannot be used as a conservative tracer (especially in areas prone to flooding), (3) uranium concentrations with depth can be variable (especially below NRZs), and (4) calcite and gypsum solubility limits appear to provide important geochemical controls on groundwater geochemistry. The conclusion of this study provides several recommendations for additional work to refine the CSM and continue assessment of the natural flushing compliance strategy. Recommendations for additional work include targeted soil and groundwater sampling to assess geochemical conditions, distribution of contaminants, and groundwater/surface water interaction; additional column tests to provide data for geochemical modeling; and development of an updated groundwater flow model, which will be used in conjunction with a geochemical model to assess the viability of the natural flushing compliance strategy.

2015 Monitoring Riverton, WY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Outbreak investigations of foot and mouth disease virus in Nepal between 2010 and 2015 in the context of historical serotype occurrence

Abstract Foot and Mouth Disease ( FMD ) is endemic in Nepal and causes substantial economic losses in the livestock industry. The goal of this study was to perform an epidemiological analysis of FMD outbreaks reported to the Veterinary Epidemiology Center, Tripureshwor, Nepal during 2010–2015, in order to strengthen the National FMD Control Program. These current data were considered in the context of historical data on FMD virus ( FMDV ) serotypes detected in the country between 1965 and 2015. During 2010–2015, a total of 1333 livestock holdings reported FMD outbreaks in Nepal. On average, 71.2 animals were affected in each outbreak, with a case fatality rate of 3.6%. FMD was reported throughout the country, and the proportion of affected holdings was not significantly among eco‐zones, regions, or species. The Hill eco‐zone had the highest number of holdings affected (782), followed by Mountain (304), and Terai (247). When analysed by the developmental region, the Western (381) and Central (368) Developmental Regions had the highest numbers of holdings affected. Cattle were the most frequently affected species (39%), followed by buffalo (33%), and goats (19%). FMD occurred throughout the year, with peaks in winter (December/January) and in the pre‐monsoon period (April/May). Between 1965 and 2015 FMDV serotype O had the highest prevalence (81%), followed by Asia‐1 (11%), A (6%), and C (2%). Serotype C was not detected after 1996, and only serotype O was reported after 2011. These descriptive analyses provide critical landmarks to establish baselines, and document early progress of the ongoing Progressive Control Pathway of FMD ( PCP ‐ FMD ) which could be useful in Nepal and other South Asian nations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Comparison of Endovascular and Open Carotid Artery Treatment in Germany: A Retrospective Analysis from 2010 to 2015

Introduction: We analyzed trends in carotid artery stenting (CAS) and carotid endarterectomy (CEA) in hospitalized cases in Germany in the years 2010–2015. Methods: Data from national statistics (DRG statistics) published by the Federal Statistical Office in Germany describing the number of hospitalized patients treated with CEA and CAS were used. In addition, numbers of patients hospitalized with the principal diagnosis stroke associated with precerebral lesions (ICD code I63), transitory cerebral ischemic attacks (G45) and precerebral carotid artery stenosis (I65) treated by CEA and CAS were analyzed for the year 2015. Results: Total number of CEA decreased by 4.0% from 24.067 (2010) to 23.104 (2015) and CAS increased by 5.1% from 5.703 to 5.992. In 2015, 79.4% of all procedures coded concerning the internal carotid artery were CEA and 21.6% CAS. From 27.798 cases hospitalized with the principal diagnosis stroke associated with precerebral lesions, CEA was performed in 3.921 (14.1%) and in 2.132 (7.7%) CAS was documented, with CAS making up one-third of all treatments within the stroke group. In 28.273 cases hospitalized with a TIA, CEA was specified in 853 (3.0%) and CAS in 255 (0.9%) cases. In 27.553 cases with an occlusion and stenosis of precerebral arteries, not resulting in cerebral infarction, 17.036 (61.8%) had a CEA and 3.156 (11.5%) a CAS procedure. Conclusion: CEA is still the primary treatment of extracranial artery stenosis. The impact of CAS becomes mainly apparent in cases presenting with acute strokes.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Preface to the Special Issue on TOUGH Symposium 2015

The TOUGH Symposium 2015 was held in Berkeley, California, September 28-30, 2015. The TOUGH family of codes, developed at the Energy Geosciences Division of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), is a suite of computer programs for the simulation of multiphase and multicomponent fluid and heat flows in porous and fractured media with applications in many geosciences fields, such as geothermal reservoir engineering, nuclear waste disposal, geological carbon sequestration, oil and gas reservoirs, gas hydrate research, vadose zone hydrology and environmental remediation. Since the first release in the 1980s, many modifications and enhancements have been continuously made to TOUGH and its various descendants (iTOUGH2, TOUGH+, TOUGH-MP, TOUGHREACT, TOUGH+HYDRATE, TMVOC...), at LBNL and elsewhere. Today, these codes are used worldwide in academia, government organizations and private companies in problems involving coupled hydrological, thermal, biogeochemical and geomechanical processes. The Symposia, organized every 2-3 years, bring together developers and users for an open exchange on recent code enhancements and applications. In 2015, the Symposium was attended by one hundred participants, representing thirty-four nationalities. This Special Issue in Computers & Geosciences gathers extended versions of selected Symposium proceedings related to (i) recent enhancements to the TOUGH family of codes and (ii) coupled flow and geomechanics processes modeling. In this special issue, a paper by Jung et al. provides a new base version of TOUGH, TOUGH3. This latest version addresses the computational robustness and efficiency needed for the increasing complexity of the simulated processes and the growing size of model domains. Moreover, it consolidates the serial and parallel versions into a single code, hence, inconsistencies between different versions are less likely to occur, and code maintenance and development become more efficient. Finsterle et al. present a review of the capabilities of iTOUGH2 and illustrate the workflow of an integrated simulation-optimization framework. Liu et al. present an approach to reduce the computational cost of performing Bayesian inverse modeling and demonstrate their approach using a synthetic experiment simulated with TOUGH2. Regarding the mesh generation process, the paper by Doughty presents a generalization of the grid-generation algorithm embedded in TOUGH2 (MESHMAKER) to create one-column grids with fractal dimension, useful for representing flow through fractures or highly heterogeneous media with fractal geometry, and also for inverse methods. Sentís and Gable present a module to interface the open source code Lagrit with TOUGH2, that assists in the processes of mesh generation and model setup, and that can be particularly useful for complex geometries and large models. Bonduà et al. present a pre-processing tool (VORO2MESH) that features a full 3D Voronoi approach for structured and unstructured grids, and an enhanced post-processor (TOUGH2Viewer) for the visualization of 3D Voronoi grids. The literature review shows that coupled fluid flow and geomechanics has gained increasing attention in the last years in many geosciences fields. In this context, several codes of the TOUGH family have been successfully coupled with geomechanics software. The paper by Rutqvist presents a review of some of these TOUGH-based geomechanics models, of which the TOUGH-FLAC simulator – presented for the first time in the TOUGH Symposium 2003 – is well-known worldwide and has been used in a large variety of applications, encompassing the application domains of the TOUGH codes. Blanco-Martín et al. present an extension of TOUGH-FLAC to the finite strain framework, motivated by the existence of large strains associated with rock salt deformation in the context of heat-generating nuclear waste disposal. Following a paper published in the Special Issue of the TOUGH Symposium 2012 in this journal, Kim et al. present the current status of the TOUGH-RSBN simulator for coupled hydro-mechanical modeling of hydraulic fracturing using a discrete fracture network approach, and present some validation and demonstration cases. Rinaldi and Nespoli present TOUGH-SEED, an injection-induced seismicity modeling approach using TOUGH2 and a geomechanics stochastic model, and apply it to the Basel EGS project. Finally, Rinaldi et al. use the PEST protocol implemented in iTOUGH2, combined with TOUGH-FLAC as the forward model, to perform inverse modeling for the In Salah CO2 demonstration site in Algeria. Using pore pressures and InSAR displacements as observations, this approach allows for a multi-physics joint inversion and takes advantage of the inverse capabilities of iTOUGH2 (parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty estimation …), applied to coupled fluid flow and geomechanics. On behalf of the members of the TOUGH Symposium 2015 Organizing Committee, I hope that this collection of papers will provide the readers of Computers & Geosciences with a recent view of the capabilities of the TOUGH family of codes, as well as with current modeling research domains in the geosciences. Last but not least, I would like to express my gratitude to all the reviewers who kindly contributed to this Special Issue, as well as the Journal staff who have made this publication possible.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Technological growth of fuel efficiency in european automobile market 1975–2015

This paper looks at the technological growth of new car fleet fuel efficiency in the European Union between 1975 and 2015. According to the analysis results, from1975 to 2006 the fuel efficiency technology improvements were largely offset by vehicles' increased weight, engine size, and consumer amenities such as acceleration capacity. After 2006, downsizing in weight and engine capacity was observed in new car fleet, while fuel consumption decreased by 32% between 2006 and 2015. We adopt a statistical method and find that from 1975 to 2015, a 1% increase in weight would result in 0.3 to 0.5% increments in fuel consumption per 100 km, and a 1% reduction in 0-100 km/h acceleration time would increase fuel consumption by about 0.3%. Impacts of other attributes on fuel consumption are also assessed. To meet the European Union's 2021 fuel consumption target, downsizing of cars, as well as at least maintaining fuel efficiency technology growth trend observed between 2005 and 2015, are needed. Lastly, government policies on controlling improvement in acceleration performance or promoting alternative fuel vehicles are also important to achieve European Union 2021 target.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗