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At least 73 records · Page 4
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NASA NTRS1985

A FGGE water vapor wind data set

It has been recognized for some time that water vapor structure visible in infrared imagery offers a potential for obtaining motion vectors when several images are considered in sequence (Fischer et al., 1981). A study evaluating water vapor winds obtained from the VISSR atmospheric sounder (Stewart et al., 1985) has confirmed the viability of the approach. More recently, 20 data sets have been produced from METEOSAT water vapor imagery for the FGGE period of 10-25 November 1979. Where possible, two data sets were prepared for each day at 0000 and 1200 GMT and compared with rawinsondes over Europe, Africa, and aircraft observations over the oceans. Procedures for obtaining winds were, in general, similar to the earlier study. Motions were detected both by a single pixel tracking and a cross correlation method by using three images individually separated by one hour. A height assignment was determined by matching the measured brightness temperature to the temperature structure represented by the FGGE-IIIB analyses. Results show that the METEOSAT water vapor winds provide uniform horizontal coverage of mid-level flow over the globe with good accuracy.

Stewart, Tod R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Meteorological analysis of the November 25 FIRE cirrus-2 case: A well-defined ridge-crest cirrus system over Oklahoma

On the morning of 25 Nov. 1991, a cirrus cloud system formed in a region extending eastward from the continental divide into central Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. The system moved slowly eastward during the day and maintained a relatively constant scale and shape. From the satellite perspective, this cloud system had a number of morphological similarities to the 27-28 Oct. FIRE (First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment) Cirrus-1 case analyzed by Starr and Wylie. By comparison, the present case had much better rawinsonde coverage. The rawinsonde network was much more extensive and the cloud system was relatively slow moving and well-located with respect to the enhanced sounding network and the National Weather Service (NWS) Wind Profiler Network. In addition to the rawinsonde soundings (1200 and 1800 UTC on 25 Nov. and 0000 and 0600 UTC on 26 Nov.) and satellite observations, four aircraft sorties were flown in the northern portion of this cirrus cloud system from mid-morning to mid afternoon. These included microphysical-radiation profiling missions by the NCAR Sabreliner near Tulsa (about midway between COF and OUN) and the NCAR King Air near Ponca City (about 80 km upwind of Tulsa), a microphysical profiling mission by the UND Citation near Tulsa, and a NASA ER-2 overflight. Thus, very good data are available for this case although, unfortunately, the cloud system remained south of the FIRE Hub site at Coffeyville (COF) where extensive ground-based remote sensor was located. The northern edge of the cloud system was visible from COF during most of the day. Given the wealth of available in situ and remote sensing observations, the similarity to the FIRE Cirrus-1 focal case study, and the particularly good match in scale and location of the cloud system with the rawinsonde and profiler networks, analysis of this case may yield very useful results on the life-cycle of this cirrus cloud system. The quality of the meteorological description for this case was assessed based on our preliminary analysis of the rawinsonde observations.

Starr, David↗
NASA NTRS1993

Mesoscale simulations of the November 25-26 and December 5-6 cirrus cases using the RAMS model

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), developed at Colorado State University, was used during the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) 2 (13 Nov. through 6 Dec. 1991) to provide real time forecasts of cirrus clouds. Forecasts were run once a day, initializing with the 0000 UTC dataset provided by NOAA (Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS)). In order to obtain better agreement with observations, a second set of simulations were done for the FIRE 2 cases that occurred on 25-26 Nov. and 5-6 Dec. In this set of simulations, a more complex radiation scheme was used, the Chen/Cotton radiation scheme, along with the nucleation of ice occurring at ice supersaturations as opposed to nucleation occurring at water supersaturations that was done in the actual forecast version. The runs using these more complex schemes took longer wall clock time (7-9 hours for the actual forecasts as compared to 12-14 hrs for the runs using the more complex schemes) however, the final results of the simulations were definitely improved upon. Comparisons between these two sets of simulations are given. Now underway are simulations of these cases using a closed analytical solution for the auto-conversion of ice from a pristine ice class (sizes less than about 50 microns in effective diameter) to a snow class (effective diameters on the order of several hundred microns). This solution is employed along with a new scheme for the nucleation of ice crystals due to Meyers et al and Demott et al. The scheme is derived assuming complete gamma distributions for both the pristine and snow classes. The time rate of change of the number concentration and mass mixing-ratio of each distribution is found by calculating either the flux of crystals that grow beyond a certain critical diameter by vapor deposition in an ice supersaturated regime or by calculating the flux of crystals that evaporate to sizes below that same critical effective diameter.

Harrington, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Infrared to x-ray spectral energy distributions of high redshift quasars

We have observed 14 quasars with z greater than 2.8 with the ROSAT-PSPC, and detected 12 of them, including the z=4.11 quasar 0000-263. We present the first x-ray spectrum of a radio quiet quasar with z greater than 3, 1946+768. Its x-ray spectrum is consistent with a power law with spectral index alpha(sub E)=1.8(sup +2.1, sub -1.4) and no evidence for absorption in excess of the galactic column (alpha(sub E)=1.00(sup +0.28, sub -0.32) assuming N(sub H)=N(sub H)(Gal)). A Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) hardness ratio is used to constrain the x-ray spectral properties of the quasars for which there were less than 100 photons detected. For the radio quiet quasars, (alpha(sub E)) approximately equals 1.2, if one assumes that there is no absorption in excess of the galactic column. We combine the x-ray data with new ground based optical and near-IR spectrophotometry obtained at the Steward 2.3 m and Multiple Mirror Telescope, and data from the literature. The spectral energy distributions are compared to those of low redshift objects. For the radio quiet quasars with z greater than 2.5, the mean (alpha(sub ox)) is approximately 1.8. This is larger than the mean for quasars with z less than 2.5, but consistent with the expected value for quasars with the high optical luminosities of the objects in this sample. For the radio-loud quasars, (alpha(sub ox)) is approximately 1.4, independent of redshift. This is smaller than the expected value for the optically luminous, high redshift objects in this sample, if they are mostly GHz peaked radio sources and hence comparable to steep-spectrum, compact radio sources at lower redshift. Finally, we compare the spectral energy distributions of two representative objects to the predicted spectrum of a thin accretion disk in the Kerr geometry, and discuss the uncertainties in deriving black hole masses and mass accretion rates.

Bechtold, Jill↗
NASA NTRS1995

A mesoscale modeling study of the atmospheric circulation of high southern latitudes

The meteorology of high southern latitudes during winter is simulated using a cloud-free version of The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model version 4 (MM4) with a 100-km horizontal resolution. Comparisons between idealized simulations of Antarctic with MM4 and with the mesoscale model of Parish and Waight reveal that both models produce similarly realistic velocity fields in the boundary layer. The latter model tends to produce slightly faster drainage winds over East Antarctica. The intensity of the katabatic winds produced by MM4 is sensitive to parameterizations of boundary layer fluxes. Two simulations performed with MM4 using analyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for June 1988 as initial and boundary conditions. A simulation of the period from 000 UTC 2 June to 0000 UTC 8 June produces realistic synoptic phenomena including ridge development over East Antarctica, frontogenesis over the Amundsen Sea, and a katabatic surge over the Ross Ice Shelf. The simulated time-averaged fields for June 1988, particularly that of a 500-hPa height, are in good agreement with time-averaged fields analyzed by the ECMWF. The results of the simulations provide detailed features of the Antarctic winter boundary layer along the steeply sloping terrain. Highest boundary layer wind speeds averaged over the month-long simulation are approximately 20 m/s. The lack of latent heating in the simulations apparently results in some bias in the results. In particular, the cloud-free version of MM4 underpredicts the intensity of lows in the sea level pressure field.

Hines, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Unusual locations of Earth's bow shock on September 24 - 25, 1987: Mach number effects

International Sun Earth Explorer 1 (ISEE 1) and Interplanetary Monitoring Platform 8 (IMP 8) data are used to identify 19 crossings of Earth's bow shock during a 30-hour period following 0000 UT on September 24, 1987. Apparent standoff distances for the shock are calculated for each crossing using two methods and the spacecraft location; one method assumes the average shock shape, while the other assumes a ram pressure-dependent shock shape. The shock's apparent standoff distance, normally approximately 14 R(sub E), is shown to increase from near 10 R(sub E) initially to near 19 R(sub E) during an 8-hour period, followed by an excursion to near 35 R(sub E) (where two IMP 8 shock crossings occur) and an eventual return to values smaller than 19 R(sub E). The Alfven M(sub A) and fast magnetosonic M(sub ms). Mach numbers remain above 2 and the number density above 4/cu cm for almost the entire period. Ram pressure effects produce the initial near-Earth shock location, whereas expansions and contractions of the bow shock due to low Mach number effects account, qualitatively and semiquantitatively, for the timing and existence of almost all the remaining ISEE crossings and both IMP 8 crossings. Significant quantitative differences exist between the apparent standoff distances for the shock crossings and those predicted using the observed plasma parameters and the standard model based on Spreiter et al.'s (1966) gasdynamic equation. These differences can be explained in terms of either a different dependence of the standoff distance on Mach number at low M(sub A) and M(sub ms), or variations in shock shape with M(sub A) and M(sub ms) (becoming increasingly "puffed up" with decreasing M(sub A) and M(sub ms), as expected theoretically), or by a combination of both effects.

Cairns, Iver H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Asymmetries in the Io plasma torus

Using Ulysses radio wave data taken during the 1992 Jupiter encounter, we conclude that there are significant large and small spatial scale azimuthal asymmetries at high latitudes in the Io plasma torus. During a period of time near perijove when the spacecraft motion was predominantly in the azimuthal direction and was relatively fixed in both latitude and radial distance, inferred electron densities depart significantly from the common assumption of longitudinal symmetry. Specifically, electron plasma concentrations near 0 deg system III longitude (and 0400 LT) are greater than those near 180 deg (and 0000 LT). Superposed on this large-scale variation are regularly spaced density depletions, 30-50% in magnitude, and having a spatial periodicity of about 17 deg. Some of these depletions may drive various known radio and plasma wave sources by means of large B parallel electric potentials. The observations are compared with recent models and with the in-situ Voyager observations.

Desch, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS1960

Investigation at Mach Numbers of 0.20 to 3.50 of Blended Wing-Body Combinations of Sonic Design with Diamond, Delta, and Arrow Plan Forms

The models had aspect-ratio-2 diamond, delta, and arrow wings with the leading edges swept 45.00 deg, 59.04 deg, and 70.82 deg, respectively. The wing sections were computed by varying the section shape along with the body radii (blending process) to match the prescribed area distribution and wing plan form. The wing sections had an average value of maximum thickness ratio of about 4 percent of the local chords in a streamwise direction. The models were tested with transition fixed at Reynolds numbers of about 4,000,000 to 9,000,0000, based on the mean aerodynamic chord of the wings. The effect of varying Reynolds number was checked at both subsonic and supersonic speeds. The diamond model was superior to the other plan forms at transonic speeds ((L/D)max = 11.00 to 9.52) because of its higher lift-curve slope and near optimum wave drag due to the blending process. For the wing thickness tested with the diamond model, the marked body and wing contouring required for transonic conditions resulted in a large wave-drag penalty at the higher supersonic Mach numbers where the leading and trailing edges of the wing were supersonic. Because of the low sweep of the trailing edge of the delta model, this configuration was less adaptable to the blending process. Removing a body bump prescribed by the Mach number 1.00 design resulted in a good supersonic design. This delta model with 10 percent less volume was superior to the other plan forms at Mach numbers of 1.55 to 2.35 ((L/D)max = 8.65 to 7.24), but it and the arrow model were equally good at Mach numbers of 2.50 to 3.50 ((L/D)max - 6.85 to O.39). At transonic speeds the arrow model was inferior because of the reduced lift-curve slope associated with its increased sweep and also because of the wing base drag. The wing base-drag coefficients of the arrow model based on the wing planform area decreased from a peak value of 0.0029 at Mach number 1.55 to 0.0003 at Mach number 3.50. Linear supersonic theory was satisfactory for predicting the aerodynamic trends at Mach numbers from 1.55 to 3.50 of lift-curve slope, wave drag, drag due to lift, aerodynamic-center location, and maximum lift-drag ratios for each of the models.

Holdaway, George H.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Combining New Satellite Tools and Models to Examine Role of Mesoscale Interactions in Formation and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June 2000 and then died out. The atmosphere off West African is dry and stable. It becomes less so between June and September, as the SST and convection heat up. QuikSCAT shows the African monsoon trough and shear zone extend westward over the ocean to nearly 30 degrees West. The evidence is strong that the two cyclones had in common multiple midlevel mergers, which extended to the surface keeping the surface vortex strong. These continued until both systems were designated TD's by NHC. In the June 2000 case, the main reason for failure was the lower SST and dry, stable atmosphere. This is shown by the comparison of the equivalent potential temperature maps and profiles with those from pre-Floyd. In the vortex which became Floyd, QuikSCAT shows continuous importation of high theta e (warm, moist) air from the south. From September 2-8, this air flowed around the vortex center, building up a high theta-e pool to the north. Then late on September 9, a 100-km wide jet of high theta-e air penetrated the vortex core, a major convective burst' was observed, and an intensifying, more elevated warm core was seen on AMSU. Rapid pressure fall and wind intensification were underway by 0000 UTC on September 10. Floyd became a Hurricane at 1200 UTC on Sept 10, 1999, with successive convective bursts running the hurricane thermodynamic engine by intensifying the warm core. TD2 was a strong African vortex, sustained by moderate convection (up to about 12.5 km) offshore of Africa. It peaked on June 23, showing an apparent "eye" on passive microwave composites. However, it could not assemble the ingredients for a convective burst. Thus it failed to get the thermodynamic hurricane engine going before it moved too far west of the region of lowered Rossby radius. By June 26, cloud systems were dying out. On June 25, a surface vortex was no longer seen on QuikSCAT, although one continued above the surface on model profiles until June 27. One of our main findings so far is showing the role of the mesoscale vortex interactions in sustaining some African vortices far out in to the mid Atlantic, where under adequate thermal/moisture conditions the hurricane heat engine can sometimes be started. We are working on similar studies of Cindy and Irene 1999. Cindy illustrates a case of wind shear working against an early-stage hurricane heat engine, while Irene formed from a Caribbean wave. An enormous value of combinations of satellite tools is that tropical cyclones can be studied in all parts of the global oceans where they occur. Detailed studies like ours are labor intensive but many statistical studies can be based on physical postulates developed. There are other new tools such as MODIS on TERRA of the Earth Observing System (EOS) which can be used to study the microphysics of tropical cyclones world wide, in particular to investigate the presence of mixed phase and the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the hydrometeor structure and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

Simpson, Joanne↗
NASA NTRS2004

Real-Time Very High-Resolution Regional 4D Assimilation in Supporting CRYSTAL-FACE Experiment

To better understand tropical cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes with a view toward the successful modeling of the Earth's climate, the CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) field experiment took place over southern Florida from 1 July to 29 July 2002. During the entire field campaign, a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) and assimilation system was performed in support of the mission with supercomputing resources provided by NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS). By using NOAA NCEP Eta forecast for boundary conditions and as a first guess for initial conditions assimilated with all available observations, two nested 15/3 km grids are employed over the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment area. The 15-km grid covers the southeast US domain, and is run two times daily for a 36-hour forecast starting at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. The nested 3-km grid covering only southern Florida is used for 9-hour and 18-hour forecasts starting at 1500 and 0600 UTC, respectively. The forecasting system provided more accurate and higher spatial and temporal resolution forecasts of 4-D atmospheric fields over the experiment area than available from standard weather forecast models. These forecasts were essential for flight planning during both the afternoon prior to a flight day and the morning of a flight day. The forecasts were used to help decide takeoff times and the most optimal flight areas for accomplishing the mission objectives. See more detailed products on the web site http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/mode/crystal. The model/assimilation output gridded data are archived on the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) UniTree system in the HDF format at 30-min intervals for real-time forecasts or 5-min intervals for the post-mission case studies. Particularly, the data set includes the 3-D cloud fields (cloud liquid water, rain water, cloud ice, snow and graupe/hail).

Wang, Donghai↗
NASA NTRS2007

Self-consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves. 2. Wave Induced Ring Current Precipitation and Thermal Electron Heating

This paper continues presentation and discussion of the results from our new global self-consistent theoretical model of interacting ring current ions and propagating electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves [Khazanov et al., 2006]. To study the effects of electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave propagation and refraction on the wave induced ring current precipitation and heating of the thermal plasmaspheric electrons, we simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings after a simulation can be summarized as follows. Firstly, the wave induced ring current precipitation exhibits quite a lot of fine structure, and is highly organized by location of the plasmapause gradient. The strongest fluxes of about 4 x 10(exp 6) (cm(raised dot) s(raised dot) sr(raised dot) (sup -1)) are observed during the maill and early recovery phases of the storm. The very interesting and probably more important finding is that in a number of cases the most intense precipitating fluxes are not connected to the most intense waves in simple manner. The characteristics of the wave power spectral density distribution over the wave normal angle are extremely crucial for the effectiveness of the ring current ion scattering. Secondly, comparison of the global proton precipitating patterns with the results from RAM [Kozyra et al., 1997a] reveals that although we observe a qualitative agreement between the localizations of the wave induced precipitations in the models, there is no quantitative agreement between the magnitudes of the fluxes. The quantitative differences are mainly due to a qualitative difference between the characteristics of the wave power spectral density distributions over the wave normal angle in RAM and in our model. Thirdly, the heat fluxes to plasmaspheric electrons caused by Landau resonate energy absorption from electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves are observed in the postnoon-premidnight MLT sector, and can reach the magnitude of 10(exp 11) eV/(cm(sup 2)(raised dot)s). The Coulomb energy degradation of the RC H(+) and O(+) ions maximizes at about 10(exp 11) (eV/(cm(sup 2) (raised dot) s), and typically leads to electron energy deposition rates of about 2(raised dot) 10(exp 10) (eV/(cm(sup 2)(raised dot)s) which are observed during two periods; 32-48 hours, and 76-86 hours after 1 May, 0000 UT. The theoretically derived spatial structure of the thermal electron heating caused by interaction of the ring current with the plasmasphere is strongly supported by concurrent and conjugate plasma measurements from the plasmasphere, ring current, and topside ionosphere [Gurgiolo et al., 2005]. Finally, the wave induced intense electron heating has a structure of the spot-like patches along the most enhanced density gradients in the plasmasphere boundary layer and can be a possible driver to the observed but still not explained small-scale structures of enhanced emissions in the stable auroral red arcs.

Khazanov, G. V.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded again by six years, from October 1996 to April 2002, by interpolating 1000-ft sounding data to 100-ft increments. The Phase II developmental data set included observations for the cool season months of October 1996 to February 2007. The AMU calculated 68 candidate predictors from the XMR soundings, to include 19 stability parameters, 48 wind speed parameters and one wind shear parameter. Each day in the data set was stratified by synoptic weather pattern, low-level wind direction, precipitation and Richardson Number, for a total of 60 stratification methods. Linear regression equations, using the 68 predictors and 60 stratification methods, were created for the tool's three forecast parameters: the highest peak wind speed of the day (PWSD), 5-minute average speed at the same time (A WSD), and timing of the PWSD. For PWSD and A WSD, 30 Phase II methods were selected for evaluation in the verification data set. For timing of the PWSD, 12 Phase\I methods were selected for evaluation. The verification data set contained observations for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The data set was used to compare the Phase I and II forecast methods to climatology, model forecast winds and wind advisories issued by the 45 WS. The model forecast winds were derived from the 0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the 12-km North American Mesoscale (MesoNAM) model. The forecast methods that performed the best in the verification data set were selected for the Phase II version of the tool. For PWSD and A WSD, linear regression equations based on MesoNAM forecasts performed significantly better than the Phase I and II methods. For timing of the PWSD, none of the methods performed significantly bener than climatology. The AMU then developed the Microsoft Excel and MIDDS GUls. The GUIs display the forecasts for PWSD, AWSD and the probability the PWSD will meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. Since none of the prediction methods for timing of the PWSD performed significantly better thanlimatology, the tool no longer displays this predictand. The Excel and MIDDS GUIs display forecasts for Day-I to Day-3 and Day-I to Day-5, respectively. The Excel GUI uses MesoNAM forecasts as input, while the MIDDS GUI uses input from the MesoNAM and Global Forecast System model. Based on feedback from the 45 WS, the AMU added the daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft to the tool, which is one of the parameters in the 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45 WS. In addition, the AMU expanded the MIDDS GUI to include forecasts out to Day-7.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
NASA NTRS2011

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Retrieved Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One operational forecast challenge is forecasting convective weather in data-void regions such as large bodies of water (e.g. Gulf of Mexico). To address this forecast challenge, SPoRT produces a twice-daily three-dimensional analysis that blends a model first-guess from the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) -- a hyperspectral sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. AIRS profiles are unique in that they give a three dimensional view of the atmosphere that is not available through the current rawinsonde network. AIRS has two overpass swaths across North America each day, one valid in the 0700-0900 UTC timeframe and the other in the 1900-2100 UTC timeframe. This is helpful because the rawinsonde network only has data from 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC at specific land-based locations. Comparing the AIRS analysis product with control analyses that include no AIRS data demonstrates the value of the retrieved profiles to situational awareness for the pre-convective (and convective) environment. In an attempt to verify that the AIRS analysis was a good representation of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, both the AIRS and control analyses are compared to a Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analysis used by operational forecasters. Using guidance from operational forecasters, convective available potential energy (CAPE) was determined to be a vital variable in making convective forecasts and is used herein to demonstrate the utility of the AIRS profiles in changing the vertical thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere in the pre-convective and convective environment. CAPE is an important metric because of it is a quantitative measure of atmospheric stability, which is necessary information when forecasting for convective weather. Case studies from the summer of 2010 were examined, and most impact from the AIRS retrieved profiles occurred over the data-void Gulf of Mexico with fields of convective potential closer to the RUC than the CNTL. Mixed results were found when AIRS retrieved profiles were used over land, so more cases need to be examined to determine whether AIRS would be an effective tool over land. Additional analyses of problematic convective forecasts over the Gulf Coast will be needed to determine the operational impact of AIRS. SPoRT eventually plans to transition the AIRS product to select Weather Forecast Office (WFO) partners, pending the outcome of these additional analyses.

Kozlowski, Danielle M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively-coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data and performing simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (I) wave deepening associated with wave shortening and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with bOlll1dary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

Shen, Bo-Wen↗
NASA NTRS2012

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

forecast↗
NASA NTRS2014

Status of the NASA GMAO Observing System Simulation Experiment

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a pure modeling study used when actual observations are too expensive or difficult to obtain. OSSEs are valuable tools for determining the potential impact of new observing systems on numerical weather forecasts and for evaluation of data assimilation systems (DAS). An OSSE has been developed at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Errico et al 2013). The GMAO OSSE uses a 13-month integration of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts 2005 operational model at T511/L91 resolution for the Nature Run (NR). Synthetic observations have been updated so that they are based on real observations during the summer of 2013. The emulated observation types include AMSU-A, MHS, IASI, AIRS, and HIRS4 radiance data, GPS-RO, and conventional types including aircraft, rawinsonde, profiler, surface, and satellite winds. The synthetic satellite wind observations are colocated with the NR cloud fields, and the rawinsondes are advected during ascent using the NR wind fields. Data counts for the synthetic observations are matched as closely as possible to real data counts, as shown in Figure 2. Errors are added to the synthetic observations to emulate representativeness and instrument errors. The synthetic errors are calibrated so that the statistics of observation innovation and analysis increments in the OSSE are similar to the same statistics for assimilation of real observations, in an iterative method described by Errico et al (2013). The standard deviations of observation minus forecast (xo-H(xb)) are compared for the OSSE and real data in Figure 3. The synthetic errors include both random, uncorrelated errors, and an additional correlated error component for some observational types. Vertically correlated errors are included for conventional sounding data and GPS-RO, and channel correlated errors are introduced to AIRS and IASI (Figure 4). HIRS, AMSU-A, and MHS have a component of horizontally correlated error. The forecast model used by the GMAO OSSE is the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DAS. The model version has been updated to v. 5.13.3, corresponding to the current operational model. Forecasts are run on a cube-sphere grid with 180 points along each edge of the cube (approximately 0.5 degree horizontal resolution) with 72 vertical levels. The DAS is cycled at 6-hour intervals, with 240 hour forecasts launched daily at 0000 UTC. Evaluation of the forecasting skill for July and August is currently underway. Prior versions of the GMAO OSSE have been found to have greater forecasting skill than real world forecasts. It is anticipated that similar forecast skill will be found in the updated OSSE.

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