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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Optimization of microwave emission from laser filamentation with a machine learning algorithm

We demonstrate that is it possible to optimize the yield of microwave radiation from plasmas generated by laser filamentation in atmosphere through manipulation of the laser wavefront. A genetic algorithm controls a deformable mirror that reconfigures the wavefront using the microwave waveform amplitude as feedback. Optimization runs performed as a function of air pressure show that the genetic algorithm can double the microwave field strength relative to when the mirror surface is flat. Here, an increase in the volume and brightness of the plasma fluorescence accompanies the increase in microwave radiation, implying an improvement in the laser beam intensity profile through the filamentation region due to the optimized wavefront.

Englesbe, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tensile properties of the neutron irradiated HT-9 ACO-3 duct

HT-9, a ferritic-Martensitic steel, has attracted significant interest as a structural and cladding material for a variety of high dose nuclear component applications. This study examines the tensile properties of a HT-9 fuel assembly duct from the fast flux test facility, FFTF. The duct, from the Advanced Core Oxide-3 (ACO-3) irradiation test, was subjected to fast neutron irradiation exposure ranging from 3 dpa above the core top to nearly 155 dpa near the core mid-plane, spanning a temperature range from 382 °C at the lower end to 504 °C at the top. Due to the combination of thermal and neutron flux gradients along the core height. This yields a variety of irradiation damage processes which depend on core location. Tensile properties of specimens extracted at different positions along the height of the irradiated duct were measured at 25 °C, 200 °C and near their in-core irradiation temperature. The results show temperature has a greater impact than dose on post-irradiation strength and ductility. Two irradiation temperature regimes were determined, below irradiation temperatures of 420 °C irradiation hardening increases as irradiation temperature decreases, and above that temperature relatively minor changes are observed in tensile properties. These results are discussed in terms of expected microstructural changes, indicating that dislocation content is a strong contributor in these findings.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Photophysical Properties and Electronic Structure of Zinc(II) Porphyrins Bearing 0–4 meso -Phenyl Substituents: Zinc Porphine to Zinc Tetraphenylporphyrin (ZnTPP)

Six zinc(II) porphyrins bearing 0–4 meso-phenyl substituents have been examined spectroscopically and theoretically. Comparisons with previously examined free base analogues afford a deep understanding of the electronic and photophysical effects of systematic addition of phenyl groups in porphyrins containing a central zinc(II) ion versus two hydrogen atoms. Trends in the wavelengths and relative intensities of the absorption bands are generally consistent with predictions from time-dependent density functional theory calculations and simulations from Gouterman’s four-orbital model. These trends derive from a preferential effect of the meso-phenyl groups to raise the energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital. The calculations reveal additional insights, such as a progressive increase in oscillator strength in the violet-red (B-Q) absorption manifold with increasing number of phenyls. Progressive addition of 0–4 phenyl substituents to the zinc porphyrins in O 2 -free toluene engenders a reduction in the measured lifetime of the lowest singlet excited state (2.5–2.1 ns), an increase in the S 1 → S o fluorescence yield (0.022–0.030), a decrease in the yield of S 1 → T 1 intersystem crossing (0.93–0.88), and an increase in the yield of S 1 → S o internal conversion (0.048–0.090). The derived rate constants for S 1 decay reveal significant differences in the photophysical properties of the zinc chelates versus free base forms. Here, the unexpected finding of a larger rate constant for internal conversion for zinc chelates versus free bases is particularly exemplary. Collectively, the findings afford fundamental insights into the photophysical properties and electronic structure of meso-phenylporphyrins, which are widely used as benchmarks for tetrapyrrole-based architectures in solar energy and life sciences research.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Cast Valve Bodies For High Temperature Service

Gen 3 Concentrating Solar-Thermal Power (CSP) system components are required to operate at 750°C - 800°C to achieve the Sunshot target of 6 cents/kWh. Haynes ® 282 and IN ® 740H are preferred alloys for the construction of these components due to their high tensile and creep strengths for service at temperatures greater than 750°C. There is significant motivation to lower the cost of materials and components so that the capital costs can be minimized. One approach to reduce costs is to fabricate castings at the lowest possible cost. To obtain the lowest cost in castings, there is a significant need to maximize yields in castings by decreasing rejects due to casting defects and to minimize wastage in material lost in the gating systems. However, very little work has been performed to develop cast products using Haynes ® 282. Although preliminary work has established the feasibility of casting Haynes ® 282 using investment and sand casting, there are no commercial cast components available. In particular, there is significant interest in the development of casting design and process technology for the fabrication of components such as valve bodies using Haynes ® 282.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Use of Boron- and Hafnium-Modified Polysilazanes for Ceramic Matrix Minicomposites

In this study, the potential of polymer-derived Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs) is demonstrated by addition of thin ceramic coatings on Carbon Fiber (CF) bundles. Boron- and hafnium- modified polysilazane liquid precursors were synthesized and used to infiltrate the fiber bundles of CF to fabricate lab-scale Si(B)CN/CF and Si(Hf)CN/CF CMC mini-composites, respectively. The precursor-to-ceramic conversion process was achieved at 800°C with crosslinked precursor to ceramic yield of approx. 90% in Ar environment. The Si(B)CN/CF contained Si-N and B-N bonds, while Si-N and Hf-O-Si bonds were observed for Si(Hf)CN/CF sample with uniform and dense surfaces. Room-temperature tensile tests showed that the Si(Hf)CN/CF sample could reach a tensile strength of ~790 MPa and elastic modulus of 66.88 GPa among the composites. Oxidation study of the Si(Hf)CN/CF mini-composites showed higher stability compared to SiCN/CF and Si(B)CN/CF mini-composites up to 1500°C.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Interplanetary Magnetic Field Conditions at Mercury's Orbit From MESSENGER Magnetosheath Observations Using a Feedforward Neural Network

Abstract Mercury's small magnetosphere is embedded in the dynamic and intense solar wind environment characteristic of the inner heliosphere. Both the magnitude and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly influence the solar wind‐magnetospheric interaction at Mercury, driving phenomena such as magnetic reconnection. The MErcury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft provided in‐situ magnetic field measurements of the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the magnetosphere along each orbit. However, it is a challenge to directly assess the IMF's impact on Mercury's plasma environment due to the temporal separation between observations within the solar wind and the magnetosphere, especially in the absence of an upstream monitor. Here, we present a feedforward neural network (FNN) trained on a subset of magnetosheath observations to estimate the strength and orientation of the IMF upstream of the bow shock. Utilizing magnetosheath magnetic field, cylindrical spatial coordinates, and heliocentric distance measurements, the FNN predicts upstream IMF conditions with an score of 0.70 and mean averaged error of 5.3 nT, thereby greatly decreasing the temporal separation between IMF estimates and magnetospheric measurements throughout the MESSENGER mission. This approach yields IMF estimates for all magnetosheath data measured by MESSENGER, providing a useful tool for future investigations of the IMF impact on Mercury's magnetosphere. This method will be integrable with the dual‐spacecraft BepiColombo magnetosheath measurements, providing useful estimates of upstream IMF conditions particularly during the extended periods in which neither spacecraft sample the solar wind. Our results demonstrate the utility of machine learning techniques on advancing space science research.

Bowers, Charles F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hardening in Au-Ag nanoboxes from stacking fault-dislocation interactions

Porous, nano-architected metals with dimensions down to ~10 nm are predicted to have extraordinarily high strength and stiffness per weight, but have been challenging to fabricate and test experimentally. Here, we use colloidal synthesis to make ~140 nm length and ~15 nm wall thickness hollow Au-Ag nanoboxes with smooth and rough surfaces. In situ scanning electron microscope and transmission electron microscope testing of the smooth and rough nanoboxes show them to yield at 130 ± 45 MPa and 96 ± 31 MPa respectively, with significant strain hardening. A higher strain hardening rate is seen in rough nanoboxes than smooth nanoboxes. Finite element modeling is used to show that the structure of the nanoboxes is not responsible for the hardening behavior suggesting that material mechanisms are the source of observed hardening. Molecular dynamics simulations indicate that hardening is a result of interactions between dislocations and the associated increase in dislocation density.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advancement of Commercial Intumescent Expanding Foams for Deactivation and Decommissioning in the Nuclear Sector - 20198

Florida International University (FIU), in collaboration with The Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM), Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL), and sites across the Savannah River complex, have identified an operational requirement for a fixative technology that is intended to immobilize and/or isolate residual contamination within a 3-dimensional space. Fixation of radiological contamination can reduce worker risk and mitigate potentially hazardous conditions, however nearly every marketed contamination fixative has been found to be flammable; a significant concern in radiological facilities. Coupled with this, industry fixatives are normally used as a thin coating which can present problems when attempting to stabilize irregular geometry or areas that are difficult to access whilst ensuring full coverage. The technical evaluation and advancement of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) polyurethane foams has yielded a down-selected candidate that shows potential in meeting the requirements to support deactivation and decommissioning activities. Several performance criteria have been established and tested to progress the technology readiness level towards an active field demonstration (TRL-7). Such criteria include: mechanical failure limits, adhesive and cohesive properties, thermal/fire resilience, determining thermal behavior, ability to immobilize contamination, and a means of non-destructive evaluation of applications. The test scenario examined was targeted towards an application for decommissioning nuclear pipework, in which the down-selected polyurethane foam would act as a barrier to segregate pipework and mitigate the potential for release during cutting, packaging, and storage operations. Testing carried out at SRNL included: mechanical evaluation of tensile, compressive, and adhesion strength by dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), as well as thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). FIU examined the foam's fixative properties by utilizing phosphorescent europium-dysprosium doped strontium aluminate powder to investigating the extent to which contamination can be immobilized. FIU has also exploited previous successes in the field of intumescent technologies to assess the down-selected foam's tolerance to an extreme fire scenario, while maintaining the ability to effectively mitigate a contamination release. Parallel to this, extensive thermal investigations were carried out to determine the upper boundary of anticipated heat generation during the curing process as heat generation has the potential to compromise rubber parts of contaminated enclosures. These investigations subsequently yielded a promising method for a non-destructive application evaluation by means of infrared thermography. Utilizing the high sensitivity of modern IR cameras, coupled with the heat generated during the curing process of the polyurethane foam, FIU has been exploring the concept of monitoring the external pipe surface for indications of an irregular or abnormal application, thus informing operational decision making. The testing carried out utilized several current 'best fit' ASTM standards, which serve as helpful guidelines for testing, however, a precise definition of the operational parameters and requirements is still necessary. With continued collaboration with SRNL, FIU aims refine said definitions and develop new standards by which this, and other decommissioning technologies, can be accredited by relevant standards based testing. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of processing parameters and build orientation on microstructure and performance of AISI stainless steel 304L made with selective laser melting under different strain rates

Selective laser melting (SLM) process brings diverse potentials on geometry flexibility; therefore, it is more and more widespread to be employed in fabrication metal alloys served for industries. Nonetheless, a material characterization study is desired to carry on for better understanding the correlation among process, structure, microstructure, and performance. In the current study, the SLM fabricated AISI stainless steel 304L was fabricated with different process parameters and built orientations (horizontal, inclined, and vertical. The tensile behavior was evaluated under different strain rates (0.0001 /s, 0.001 /s, 0.01 /s, and 0.1 /s) and compared to the commercial cold-rolled and annealed counterpart. Grain structures, tensile strength, elongation-to-failure, strain rate sensitivity, work hardening, and fractographic analysis were evaluated in terms of the effect of energy density, build orientation, and strain rate. The output indicates the tensile strength increases with increasing strain rates. On the contrary, the elongation-to-failure shows a decreasing trend with strain rates. Tensile properties of specimens built in the horizontal and inclined orientations are more sensitive to strain rates due to the smaller dimension of grain structures. Tensile anisotropy depends on the energy input, where a high energy density could yield a strong build orientation-dependent anisotropy. Hall-Petch relationship is validated to explain the mechanical anisotropy in different built orientations for SLM alloys. The strain hardening exponent and work hardening rate are demonstrated to be positively correlated, and they increase with smaller grain sizes. The fine dimple features indicate the ductile fracture mode regardless of strain rates. The size of the ductile dimples seems to depend on the strain rates and build orientations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probing physics beyond the standard model: limits from BBN and the CMB independently and combined

We present new Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) limits on the cosmic expansion rate or relativistic energy density, quantified via the number N ν of equivalent neutrino species. We use the latest light element observations, neutron mean lifetime, and update our evaluation for the nuclear rates d + d → 3 He + n and d + d → 3 H+p. Combining this result with the independent constraints from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) yields tight limits on new physics that perturbs N ν and η prior to cosmic nucleosynthesis: a joint BBN+CMB analysis gives N ν = 2.898 ± 0.141, resulting in N ν < 3.180 at 2σ. We apply these limits to a wide variety of new physics scenarios including right-handed neutrinos, dark radiation, and a stochastic gravitational wave background. The strength of the independent BBN and CMB constraints now opens a new window: we can search for limits on potential changes in N ν and/or the baryon-to-photon ratio η between the two epochs. The present data place strong constraints on the allowed changes in N ν between BBN and CMB decoupling; for example, we find -0.708 < N ν CMB - N ν BBN < 0.328 in the case where η and the primordial helium mass fraction Yp are unchanged between the two epochs; we also give limits on the allowed variations in η or in (η, N ν ) jointly. We discuss scenarios in which such changes could occur, and show that BBN+CMB results combine to place important constraints on some early dark energy models to explain the H 0 tension. Looking to the future, we forecast the tightened precision for N ν arising from both CMB Stage 4 measurements as well as improvements in astronomical 4 He measurements. Here, we find that CMB-S4 combined with present BBN and light element observation precision can give σ(N ν ) ≃ 0.03. Such future precision would reveal the expected effect of neutrino heating (N eff -3 = 0.044) of the CMB during BBN, and would be near the level to reveal any particle species ever in thermal equilibrium with the standard model. Improved Y p measurements can push this precision even further.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global overview and major challenges of host prediction methods for uncultivated phages

Bacterial communities play critical roles across all of Earth’s biomes, affecting human health and global ecosystem functioning. They do so under strong constraints exerted by viruses, i.e., bacteriophages or “phages”. Phages can reshape bacterial communities’ structure, influence long-term evolution of bacterial populations, and alter host cell metabolism during infection. Metagenomics approaches, i.e., shotgun sequencing of environmental DNA or RNA, recently enabled large-scale exploration of phage genomic diversity, yielding several millions of phage genomes now to be further analyzed and characterized. One major challenge however is the lack of direct host information for these phages. Several methods and tools have been proposed to bioinformatically predict the potential host(s) of uncultivated phages based only on genome sequence information. Here we review these different approaches and highlight their distinct strengths and limitations. We also outline complementary experimental assays which are being proposed to validate and refine these bioinformatic predictions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Description of reaction and vibrational energetics of CO 2 –NH 3 interaction using quantum computing algorithms

CO 2 capture is critical to solving global warming. Amine-based solvents are extensively used to chemically absorb CO 2 . Thus, it is crucial to study the chemical absorption of CO 2 by amine-based solvents to better understand and optimize CO 2 capture processes. Here, we use quantum computing algorithms to quantify molecular vibrational energies and reaction pathways between CO 2 and a simplified amine-based solvent model—NH 3 . Molecular vibrational properties are important to understanding kinetics of reactions. However, the molecule size correlates with the strength of anharmonicity effect on vibrational properties, which can be challenging to address using classical computing. Quantum computing can help enhance molecular vibrational calculations by including anharmonicity. We implement a variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm in a quantum simulator to calculate ground state vibrational energies of reactants and products of the CO 2 and NH 3 reaction. The VQE calculations yield ground vibrational energies of CO 2 and NH 3 with similar accuracy to classical computing. In the presence of hardware noise, Compact Heuristic for Chemistry (CHC) ansatz with shallower circuit depth performs better than Unitary Vibrational Coupled Cluster. The “Zero Noise Extrapolation” error-mitigation approach in combination with CHC ansatz improves the vibrational calculation accuracy. Excited vibrational states are accessed with quantum equation of motion method for CO 2 and NH 3 . Using quantum Hartree–Fock (HF) embedding algorithm to calculate electronic energies, the corresponding reaction profile compares favorably with Coupled Cluster Singles and Doubles while being more accurate than HF. Our research showcases quantum computing applications in the study of CO 2 capture reactions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strengths of plasmon satellites in XPS: Real-time cumulant approach

Plasmon satellites observed in x-ray photoemission spectra (XPS) reflect many-body effects beyond the single-electron approximation. However, theoretical calculations are challenging and simplified theories based on electron gas models are not always satisfactory. Here, a cumulant Green’s function approach with a real-time time-dependent density functional theory calculation of the cumulant is described for calculations of these effects, without the need for adjustable parameters. Here, the approach yields good agreement with experimental XPS results, as illustrated for Ge and Al. Corrections due to extrinsic losses and interference are also briefly discussed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

DFT Analysis of the Binding of Rare Earth Nitrates at Internal and External Surfaces of MCM-22

MCM-22-type zeolites constitute a well-characterized tunable class of aluminosilicates suitable for elucidating the fundamental aspects of the binding of rare earth elements (REEs) in layered materials. Starting from the pure silica version ITQ-1 with a unit cell of Si 72 O 144 , a model for periodic bulk crystalline MCM-22 with a finite Al concentration is provided by replacing a Si atom with an Al atom in the unit cell at suitable tetrahedral sites near an internal pore surface. Then, a H atom is added to an O atom bridging Si and Al atoms to create a Brønsted acid site (BAS). There are no internal silanol groups in this bulk model. To generate a model for an external surface, we adopt the fully hydroxylated surface structure of a layer within the ITQ-1 precursor with two silanols per lateral unit cell. A BAS on the external surface can be generated by replacing a near-surface Si atom with an Al atom and adding a H atom, as above. The strength of binding at a BAS of REE, X, taken to be present in the solution phase as nitrates, is determined from the energy change in the reaction X(NO 3 ) 3 + ≡Si–{OH}–Al≡ → ≡Si–{OX(NO 3 ) 2 }–Al≡+ HNO 3 . The strength of binding at the silanols is determined similarly. Binding energies are determined from two approaches. The first performs periodic plane-wave density functional theory (DFT) total energy analysis for an entire unit cell of MCM-22. The second utilizes cluster models capturing the local environment of REE binding sites and performs DFT analysis with localized basis sets. The two approaches yield consistent results for Nd, revealing similarly strong binding at either an external or internal BAS, but much weaker binding at a silanol site. This is consistent with the picture deduced from recent experiments. Here, we also comment on binding at Al-bridged siloxane sites, which have been suggested as alternative binding sites to BAS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling strength and failure variability due to porosity in additively manufactured metals

To model and quantify the variability in plasticity and failure of additively manufactured metals due to imperfections in their microstructure, we have developed uncertainty quantification methodology based on pseudo marginal likelihood and embedded variability techniques. We account for both the porosity resolvable in computed tomography scans of the initial material and the sub-threshold distribution of voids through a physically motivated model. Calibration of the model indicates that the sub-threshold population of defects dominates the yield and failure response. Finally, the technique also allows us to quantify the distribution of material parameters connected to microstructural variability created by the manufacturing process, and, thereby, make assessments of material quality and process control.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Review: The Next Steps in Crop Improvement: Adoption of Emerging Strategies to Identify Bottlenecks in Sugar Flux

We report sugar allocation in plants is the fundamental process that transports sugar from source to sink tissues and has a dramatic impact on crop yields. Controlling sugar allocation is required to increase crop yields, as well as biomass for biofuel production. Successful examples have demonstrated that genetic engineering of sugar partitioning offers a promising strategy to achieve this goal. However, improvement has thus far been limited by gaps in understanding of the underlying mechanisms controlling the allocation of sugars. The dynamics of sugar partitioning are minimally predictable under different conditions, between species, or in response to abiotic stresses. Here, we discuss four methodologies that have not been sufficiently exploited for the identification of bottlenecks in sugar flux. Furthermore, we suggest how these strategies can be used and combined to provide the insight needed to maximize crop yields or biomass, especially under conditions of environmental stress.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chain-End Controlled Depolymerization Selectivity in α,α-Disubstituted Propionate PHAs with Dual Closed-Loop Recycling and Record-High Melting Temperature

In this article, within the large poly(3-hydroxyalkanoate) (PHA) family, C3 propionates are much less studied than C4 butyrates, with the exception of α,α-disubstituted propionate PHAs, particularly poly(3-hydroxy-2,2-dimethylpropionate), P3H(Me) 2 P, due to its high melting temperature (T m ~ 230 °C) and crystallinity (~76%). However, inefficient synthetic routes to its monomer 2,2-dimethylpropiolactone [(Me) 2 PL] and extreme brittleness of P3H(Me) 2 P largely hinder its broad applications. Here, we introduce simple, efficient step-growth polycondensation (SGP) of a hydroxyacid or methyl ester to afford P3H(Me) 2 P with low to medium molar mass, which is then utilized to produce lactones through base-catalyzed depolymerization. The ring-opening polymerization (ROP) of the 4-membered lactone leads to high-molar-mass P3H(Me) 2 P, which can be depolymerized by hydrolysis to the hydroxyacid in 99% yield or methanolysis to the hydroxyester in 91% yield, achieving closed-loop recycling via both SGP and ROP routes. Intriguingly, the chain end of the SGP-P3H(Me) 2 P determines the depolymerization selectivity toward 4- or 12-membered lactone formation, while both can be repolymerized back to P3H(Me) 2 P. Through the formation of copolymers P3H(Me/R) 2 P (R = Et, n Pr), PHAs with high tensile strength and ductility, coupled with high barriers to water vapor and oxygen, have been created. Notably, the PHA structure–property study led to P3H( n Pr) 2 P with a record-high T m of 266 °C within the PHA family.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗