SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “wind forecasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1987

Potential benefits of magnetic suspension and balance systems

The potential of Magnetic Suspension and Balance Systems (MSBS) to improve conventional wind tunnel testing techniques is discussed. Topics include: elimination of model geometry distortion and support interference to improve the measurement accuracy of aerodynamic coefficients; removal of testing restrictions due to supports; improved dynamic stability data; and stores separation testing. Substantial increases in wind tunnel productivity are anticipated due to the coalescence of these improvements. Specific improvements in testing methods for missiles, helicopters, fighter aircraft, twin fuselage transports and bombers, state separation, water tunnels, and automobiles are also forecast. In a more speculative vein, new wind tunnel test techniques are envisioned as a result of applying MSBS, including free-flight computer trajectories in the test section, pilot-in-the-loop and designer-in-the-loop testing, shipboard missile launch simulation, and optimization of hybrid hypersonic configurations. Also addressed are potential applications of MSBS to such diverse technologies as medical research and practice, industrial robotics, space weaponry, and ore processing in space.

Lawing, Pierce L.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data efficiency assessment of generative adversarial networks in energy applications

This study investigates the data requirements of generative artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative adversarial networks (GANs), for reliable data augmentation in energy applications. Generative AI, though seen as a solution to data limitations, requires substantial data to learn meaningful distributions—a challenge often overlooked. This study addresses the challenge through synthetic data generation for critical heat flux (CHF) and power grid demand, focusing on renewable and nuclear energy. Two variants of GAN employed are conditional GAN (cGAN) and Wasserstein GAN (wGAN). Our findings include the strong dependency of GAN on data size, with performance declining on smaller datasets and varying performance when generalizing to unseen experiments. Mass flux and heated length significantly influence CHF predictions. wGAN is more robust to feature exclusion, making it suitable for constrained synthetic data generation. In energy demand forecasting, wGAN performed well for solar, wind, and load predictions. Longer lookback hours and larger datasets improved predictions, especially for load power. Seasonal variations posed challenges, with wGAN achieving a relatively high error of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.32 for load power prediction, compared to RMSE of 0.07 under same-season conditions. Feature exclusions impacted cGAN the most, while wGAN showed greater robustness. This study concludes that, while generative AI is effective for data augmentation, it requires substantial data and careful training to generate realistic synthetic data and generalize to new experiments in engineering applications.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Tower Mesonetwork Climatology and Interactive Display Tool

Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron and Spaceflight Meteorology Group use data from the tower network over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to evaluate Launch Commit Criteria, and issue and verify forecasts for ground operations. Systematic biases in these parameters could adversely affect an analysis, forecast, or verification. Also, substantial geographical variations in temperature and wind speed can occur under specific wind directions. To address these concerns, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a climatology of temperatures and winds from the tower network, and identified the geographical variation and significant tower biases. The mesoclimate is largely driven by the complex land-water interfaces across KSC/CCAFS. Towers with close proximity to water typically had much warmer nocturnal temperatures and higher wind speeds throughout the year. The strongest nocturnal wind speeds occurred from October to March whereas the strongest mean daytime wind speeds occurred from February to May. These results of this project can be viewed by forecasters through an interactive graphical user interface developed by the AMU. The web-based interface includes graphical and map displays of mean, standard deviation, bias, and data availability for any combination of towers, variables, months, hours, and wind directions.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Global surface wind and flux fields from model assimilation of Seasat data

Procedures for dealiasing Seasat data and developing global surface wind and latent and sensible heat flux fields are discussed. Seasat data from September 20, 1978 was dealiased using the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system. The wind data obtained with the objective GLA forecast model are compared to the data subjectively dealiased by Peteherych et al. (1984) and Hoffman (1982, 1984). The GLA procedure is also verified using simulated Seasat data. The areas of high and low heat fluxes and cyclonic and anticyclonic wind stresses detected in the generated fields are analyzed and compared to climatological fields. It is observed that there is good correlation between the time-averaged analyses of wind stress obtained subjectively and objectively, and the monthly mean wind stress and latent fluxes agree with climatological fields and atmospheric and oceanic features.

Atlas, R.↗

DOE OSTI2016

An improved empirical model of electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit based on upstream solar wind conditions

In this study, a new empirical model of the electron fluxes and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) is introduced, based on observations by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. The model provides flux predictions in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV, as a function of local time, energy, and the strength of the solar wind electric field (the negative product of the solar wind speed and the z component of the magnetic field). Given appropriate upstream solar wind measurements, the model provides a forecast of the fluxes at GEO with a ~1 h lead time. Model predictions are tested against in-sample observations from LANL satellites and also against out-of-sample observations from the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II detector on the AMC-12 satellite. The model does not reproduce all structure seen in the observations. However, for the intervals studied here (quiet and storm times) the normalized root-mean-square deviation < ~0.3. It is intended that the model will improve forecasting of the spacecraft environment at GEO and also provide improved boundary/input conditions for physical models of the magnetosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

The IEEE Reliability Test System: A Proposed 2019 Update

The evolving nature of electricity production, transmission and consumption necessitates an update to the IEEE's Reliability Test System, which was last modernized in 1996. The update introduced here introduces a generation mix more representative of modern power systems, with the removal of several nuclear and oil generating units and the addition of natural gas, wind, solar photovoltaics, concentrating solar power, and energy storage. The update includes assigning the test system a geographic location in the southwestern United States to enable the integration of spatio-temporally consistent wind, solar, and load data with forecasts. Further updates include common RTS transmission modifications in published literature, definitions for reserve product requirements and market simulation descriptions to enable benchmarking of multi-period power system scheduling problems. The final section reflects example results from a production cost modeling simulation on the updated RTS system data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1980

Current research on aviation weather (bibliography), 1979

The titles, managers, supporting organizations, performing organizations, investigators and objectives of 127 current research projects in advanced meteorological instruments, forecasting, icing, lightning, visibility, low level wind shear, storm hazards/severe storms, and turbulence are tabulated and cross-referenced. A list of pertinent reference material produced through the above tabulated research activities is given. The acquired information is assembled in bibliography form to provide a readily available source of information in the area of aviation meteorology.

Turkel, B. S.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Pulse asymptotics of the Charney baroclinic instability problem

The asymptotic response of the Charney baroclinic instability problem to a localized perturbation is determined using the formalism of Briggs (1964) and exploiting a recently obtained highly accurate WKB approximate dispersion relation (Lindzen and Rosenthal, 1981). Comparison is made with previous results for two-level and Eady models. Small scales and rapid growth characteristic of the initial stages of cyclogenesis are found and the linear dispersion relation, which can be obtained from observation of zonal wind and stability, emerges as a forecast tool for prediction of geographically local cyclogenesis.

Farrell, B. F.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Vector wind, horizontal divergence, wind stress and wind stress curl from SEASAT-SASS at one degree resolution

Conventional data obtained in 1983 are contrasted with SEASAT-A scatterometer and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) data to show how observations at a single station can be extended to an area of about 150,000 square km by means of remotely sensed data obtained in nine minutes. Superobservations at a one degree resolution for the vector winds were estimated along with their standard deviations. From these superobservations, the horizontal divergence, vector wind stress, and the curl of the wind stress can be found. Weather forecasting theory is discussed and meteorological charts of the North Pacific Ocean are presented. Synoptic meteorology as a technique is examined.

Pierson, W. J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Neural net forecasting for geomagnetic activity

We use neural nets to construct nonlinear models to forecast the AL index given solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data. We follow two approaches: (1) the state space reconstruction approach, which is a nonlinear generalization of autoregressive-moving average models (ARMA) and (2) the nonlinear filter approach, which reduces to a moving average model (MA) in the linear limit. The database used here is that of Bargatze et al. (1985).

Hernandez, J. V.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Scientific Impacts of Wind Direction Errors

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (less than 45 deg) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (less than 7 m/s ) conditions was made. averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder high- latitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean's function in modifying Earth's climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Nino episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3-5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost

Liu, W. Timothy↗

NASA NTRS2011

Observations During GRIP from HIRAD: Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate

HIRAD (Hurricane Imaging Radiometer) flew on the WB-57 during NASA's GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) campaign in August - September of 2010. HIRAD is a new C-band radiometer using a synthetic thinned array radiometer (STAR) technology to obtain cross-track resolution of approximately 3 degrees, out to approximately 60 degrees to each side of nadir. By obtaining measurements of emissions at 4, 5, 6, and 6.6 GHz, observations of ocean surface wind speed and rain rate can be inferred. This technique has been used for many years by precursor instruments, including the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which has been flying on the NOAA and USAF hurricane reconnaissance aircraft for several years. The advantage of HIRAD over SFMR is that HIRAD can observe a +/- 60-degree swath, rather than a single footprint at nadir angle. Results from the flights during the GRIP campaign will be shown, including images of brightness temperatures, wind speed, and rain rate. To the extent possible, comparisons will be made with observations from other instruments on the GRIP campaign, for which HIRAD observations are either directly comparable or are complementary. Potential impacts on operational ocean surface wind analyses and on numerical weather forecasts will also be discussed.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Observations During GRIP from HIRAD: Images of C-Band Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate

HIRAD (Hurricane Imaging Radiometer) flew on the WB-57 during NASA s GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) campaign in August - September of 2010. HIRAD is a new C-band radiometer using a synthetic thinned array radiometer (STAR) technology to obtain cross-track resolution of approximately 3 degrees, out to approximately 60 degrees to each side of nadir. By obtaining measurements of emissions at 4, 5, 6, and 6.6 GHz, observations of ocean surface wind speed and rain rate can be inferred. This technique has been used for many years by precursor instruments, including the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which has been flying on the NOAA and USAF hurricane reconnaissance aircraft for several years. The advantage of HIRAD over SFMR is that HIRAD can observe a +/- 60-degree swath, rather than a single footprint at nadir angle. Results from the flights during the GRIP campaign will be shown, including images of brightness temperatures, wind speed, and rain rate. To the extent possible, comparisons will be made with observations from other instruments on the GRIP campaign, for which HIRAD observations are either directly comparable or are complementary. Features such as storm eye and eyewall, location of vortex wind and rain maxima, and indications of dynamical features such as the merging of a weaker outer wind/rain maximum with the main vortex may be seen in the data. Potential impacts on operational ocean surface wind analyses and on numerical weather forecasts will also be discussed.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Observations of C-band Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

HIRAD flew on the WB-57 over Earl and Karl during NASA s GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) campaign in August - September of 2010. HIRAD is a new Cband radiometer using a synthetic thinned array radiometer (STAR) technology to obtain cross-track resolution of approximately 3 degrees, out to approximately 60 degrees to each side of nadir. (The resulting swath width for a platform at 60,000 feet is roughly 60 km, and resolution for most of the swath is around 2 km.) By obtaining measurements of emissions at 4, 5, 6, and 6.6 GHz, observations of ocean surface wind speed and rain rate can be retrieved. This technique has been used for many years by precursor instruments, including the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which has been flying on the NOAA and USAF hurricane reconnaissance aircraft for several years to obtain observations within a single footprint at nadir angle. Results from the flights during the GRIP campaign will be shown, including images of brightness temperatures, wind speed, and rain rate. Comparisons will be made with observations from other instruments on the GRIP campaign, for which HIRAD observations are either directly comparable or are complementary. Features such as storm eye and eyewall, location of storm wind and rain maxima, and indications of dynamical features such as the merging of a weaker outer wind/rain maximum with the main vortex may be seen in the data. Potential impacts on operational ocean surface wind analyses and on numerical weather forecasts will also be discussed.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

New Observations of C-band Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate From the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

HIRAD flew on the WB-57 during NASA's GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) campaign in August September of 2010. HIRAD is a new C-band radiometer using a synthetic thinned array radiometer (STAR) technology to obtain cross-track resolution of approximately 3 degrees, out to approximately 60 degrees to each side of nadir. By obtaining measurements of emissions at 4, 5, 6, and 6.6 GHz, observations of ocean surface wind speed and rain rate can be retrieved. This technique has been used for many years by precursor instruments, including the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which has been flying on the NOAA and USAF hurricane reconnaissance aircraft for several years to obtain observations within a single footprint at nadir angle. Results from the flights during the GRIP campaign will be shown, including images of brightness temperatures, wind speed, and rain rate. Comparisons will be made with observations from other instruments on the GRIP campaign, for which HIRAD observations are either directly comparable or are complementary. Features such as storm eye and eyewall, location of storm wind and rain maxima, and indications of dynamical features such as the merging of a weaker outer wind/rain maximum with the main vortex may be seen in the data. Potential impacts on operational ocean surface wind analyses and on numerical weather forecasts will also be discussed.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Observations of Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate During NASA's GRIP and HS3 Campaigns

HIRAD flew on high-altitude aircraft over Earl and Karl during NASA s GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) campaign in August - September of 2010, and plans to fly over Atlantic tropical cyclones in September of 2012 as part of the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission. HIRAD is a new C-band radiometer using a synthetic thinned array radiometer (STAR) technology to obtain spatial resolution of approximately 2 km, out to roughly 30 km each side of nadir. By obtaining measurements of emissions at 4, 5, 6, and 6.6 GHz, observations of ocean surface wind speed and rain rate can be retrieved. The physical retrieval technique has been used for many years by precursor instruments, including the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which has been flying on the NOAA and USAF hurricane reconnaissance aircraft for several years to obtain observations within a single footprint at nadir angle. Results from the flights during the GRIP and HS3 campaigns will be shown, including images of brightness temperatures, wind speed, and rain rate. Comparisons will be made with observations from other instruments on the campaigns, for which HIRAD observations are either directly comparable or are complementary. Features such as storm eye and eye-wall, location of storm wind and rain maxima, and indications of dynamical features such as the merging of a weaker outer wind/rain maximum with the main vortex may be seen in the data. Potential impacts on operational ocean surface wind analyses and on numerical weather forecasts will also be discussed.

Miller, Timothy L.↗