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Weighting Statistical Inputs for Data Used to Support Effective Decision Making During Severe Emergency Weather and Environmental Events

National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) weather and atmospheric environmental organizations are insatiable consumers of geophysical, hydrometeorological and solar weather statistics. The expanding array of internet-worked sensors producing targeted physical measurements has generated an almost factorial explosion of near real-time inputs to topical statistical datasets. Normalizing and value-based parsing of such statistical datasets in support of time-constrained weather and environmental alerts and warnings is essential, even with dedicated high-performance computational capabilities. What are the optimal indicators for advanced decision making? How do we recognize the line between sufficient statistical sampling and excessive, mission destructive sampling ? How do we assure that the normalization and parsing process, when interpolated through numerical models, yields accurate and actionable alerts and warnings? This presentation will address the integrated means and methods to achieve desired outputs for NASA and consumers of its data.

Gardner, Adrian↗

A New Tool for Forecasting Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather

This poster describes a tool that is designed to forecast solar drivers for severe space weather. Since most severe space weather is driven by Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) - the strongest of these originate in active regions and are driven by the release of coronal free magnetic energy and There is a positive correlation between an active region's free magnetic energy and the likelihood of flare and CME production therefore we can use this positive correlation as the basis of our empirical space weather forecasting tool. The new tool takes a full disk Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram, identifies strong magnetic field areas, identifies these with NOAA active regions, and measures a free-magnetic-energy proxy. It uses an empirically derived forecasting function to convert the free-magnetic-energy proxy to an expected event rate. It adds up the expected event rates from all active regions on the disk to forecast the expected rate and probability of each class of events -- X-class flares, X&M class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar particle events (SPEs).

Adams, J. H.↗

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

Watson, Leela R.↗

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA prefers to land the space shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). When weather conditions violate Flight Rules at KSC, NASA will usually divert the shuttle landing to Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in Southern California. But forecasting surface winds at EAFB is a challenge for the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters due to the complex terrain that surrounds EAFB, One particular phenomena identified by SMG is that makes it difficult to forecast the EAFB surface winds is called "wind cycling". This occurs when wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway leading to a challenging deorbit bum forecast for shuttle landings. The large-scale numerical weather prediction models cannot properly resolve the wind field due to their coarse horizontal resolutions, so a properly tuned high-resolution mesoscale model is needed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model meets this requirement. The AMU assessed the different WRF model options to determine which configuration best predicted surface wind speed and direction at EAFB, To do so, the AMU compared the WRF model performance using two hot start initializations with the Advanced Research WRF and Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical cores and compared model performance while varying the physics options.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Environmental Impact Specification for Direct Space Weathering of Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud Objects

The Direct Space Weathering Project of NASA's Outer Planets Research Program addresses specification of the plasma and energetic particle environments for irradiation and surface chemical processing of icy bodies in the outer solar system and the local interstellar medium. Knowledge of the radiation environments is being expanded by ongoing penetration of the twin Voyager spacecraft into the heliosheath boundary region of the outer heliosphere and expected emergence within the next decade into the very local interstellar medium. The Voyager measurements are being supplemented by remote sensing from Earth orbit of energetic neutral atom emission from this boundary region by NASA's Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). Although the Voyagers long ago passed the region of the Classical Kuiper Belt, the New Horizons spacecraft will encounter Pluto in 2015 and thereafter explore one or more KBOs, meanwhile providing updated measurements of the heliospheric radiation environment in this region. Modeling of ion transport within the heliosphere allows specification of time-integrated irradiation effects while the combination of Voyager and IBEX data supports projection of the in-situ measurements into interstellar space beyond the heliosheath. Transformation of model ion flux distributions into surface sputtering and volume ionization profiles provides a multi-layer perspective for space weathering impact on the affected icy bodies and may account for some aspects of color and compositional diversity. Other important related factors may include surface erosion and gardening by meteoritic impacts and surface renewal by cryovolcanism. Chemical products of space weathering may contribute to energy resources for the latter.

Cooper, John F.↗

Space Weathering of Ordinary Chondrite Parent Bodies, Its Impact on the Method of Distinguishing H, L, and LL Types and Implications for Itokawa Samples Returned by the Hayabusa Mission

As the most abundance meteorites in our collections, ordinary chondrites potentially have very important implications on the origin and formation of our Solar System. In order to map the distribution of ordinary chondrite-like asteroids through remote sensing, the space weathering effects of ordinary chondrite parent bodies must be addressed through experiments and modeling. Of particular importance is the impact on distinguishing different types (H/L/LL) of ordinary chondrites. In addition, samples of asteroid Itokawa returned by the Hayabusa spacecraft may re~ veal the mechanism of space weathering on an LLchondrite parent body. Results of space weathering simulations on ordinary chondrites and implications for Itokawa samples are presented here.

Hiroi, T.↗

SCOSTEP: Understanding the Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System

The international solar-terrestrial physics community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by the Scientific Committee on Solar Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP). The CAWSES program is the current major scientific program of SCOSTEP that will continue until the end of the year 2013. The CAWSES program has brought scientists from all over the world together to tackle the scientific issues behind the Sun-Earth connected system and explore ways of helping the human society. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and other SCOSTEP activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations, capacity building, and public outreach.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗

The Solar Dynamics Observatory and Its Contributions to Space Weather

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was launched on 11 February 2010 and has worked flawlessly in its first year and a half of operation. SDO was the first mission launched for NASA's Living With a Star Program (LWS), so its focus is not only studying the causes and drivers of the variable Sun, but also how these variations force similar changes in the Earth and other objects within the Heliosphere. Due to SDO's many Space Weather goals, this presentation will not only show some of the recent, ground-breaking new results provided by SDO, but also focus on the real-time Space Weather advances provided by this spacecraft. A main theme throughout this talk will be methods and tools that researchers around the world can utilize to access and manipulate the SDO data real-time for both fundamental science and Space Weather monitoring purposes.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗

Updates on CCMC Activities and GSFC Space Weather Services

In this presentation, we provide updates on CCMC modeling activities, CCMC metrics and validation studies, and other CCMC efforts. In addition, an overview of GSFC Space Weather Services (a sibling organization to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) and its products/capabilities will be given. We show how some of the research grade models, if running in an operational mode, can help address NASA's space weather needs by providing forecasting/now casting capabilities of significant space weather events throughout the solar system.

Zhengm Y.↗

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations

Strong, Keith↗

Interaction of Airspace Partitions and Traffic Flow Management Delay with Weather

The interaction of partitioning the airspace and delaying flights in the presence of convective weather is explored to study how re-partitioning the airspace can help reduce congestion and delay. Three approaches with varying complexities are employed to compute the ground delays.In the first approach, an airspace partition of 335 high-altitude sectors that is based on clear weather day traffic is used. Routes are then created to avoid regions of convective weather. With traffic flow management, this approach establishes the baseline with per-flight delay of 8.4 minutes. In the second approach, traffic flow management is used to select routes and assign departure delays such that only the airport capacity constraints are met. This results in 6.7 minutes of average departure delay. The airspace is then partitioned with a specific capacity. It is shown that airspace-capacity-induced delay can be reduced to zero ata cost of 20percent more sectors for the examined scenario.

Lee, Hak-Tae↗

High-Resolution Analysis Products to Support Severe Weather and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Threat Assessments over Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) located at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) implemented an operational configuration of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), as well as the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Operational, high-resolution ADAS analyses have been produced from this configuration at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) over the past several years. Since that time, ADAS fields have become an integral part of forecast operations at both NWS MLB and SMG. To continue providing additional utility, the AMU has been tasked to implement visualization products to assess the potential for supercell thunderstorms and significant tornadoes, and to improve assessments of short-term cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning potential. This paper and presentation focuses on the visualization products developed by the AMU for the operational high-resolution ADAS and AR.PS at the NWS MLB and SMG. The two severe weather threat graphics implemented within ADAS/ARPS are the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) and Significant Tornado Parameter (SIP). The SCP was designed to identify areas with supercell thunderstorm potential through a combination of several instability and shear parameters. The SIP was designed to identify areas that favor supercells producing significant tornadoes (F2 or greater intensity) versus non-tornadic supercells. Both indices were developed by the NOAAINWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and were normalized by key threshold values based on previous studies. The indices apply only to discrete storms, not other convective modes. In a post-analysis mode, the AMU calculated SCP and SIP for graphical output using an ADAS configuration similar to the operational set-ups at NWS MLB and SMG. Graphical images from ADAS were generated every 15 minutes for 13 August 2004, the day that Hurricane Charley approached and made landfall on the Florida peninsula. Several tornadoes struck the interior of the Florida peninsula in advance of Hurricane Charley's landfall during the daylight hours of 13 August. Since SPC had previously examined this case using SCP and SIP graphics generated from output of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model, this day served as a good benchmark to compare and validate the high-resolution ADAS graphics against the smoother RUC analyses, which serves as background fields to the ADAS analyses. The ADAS-generated SCP and STP graphics have been integrated into the suite of products examined operationally by NWS MLB forecasters and are used to provide additional guidance for assessment of the near-storm environment during convective situations.

Case, Jonathan↗

NASA's Internal Space Weather Working Group

Measurements from many of NASA's scientific spacecraft are used routinely by space weather forecasters, both in the U.S. and internationally. ACE, SOHO (an ESA/NASA collaboration), STEREO, and SDO provide images and in situ measurements that are assimilated into models and cited in alerts and warnings. A number of years ago, the Space Weather laboratory was established at NASA-Goddard, along with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Within that organization, a space weather service center has begun issuing alerts for NASA's operational users. NASA's operational user community includes flight operations for human and robotic explorers; atmospheric drag concerns for low-Earth orbit; interplanetary navigation and communication; and the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, high altitude aircraft, and launch vehicles. Over the past three years we have identified internal stakeholders within NASA and formed a Working Group to better coordinate their expertise and their needs. In this presentation we will describe this activity and some of the challenges in forming a diverse working group.

St. Cyr, O. C.↗

Improved Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) that mimics the analysis methodology, domain, and observational datasets for the regional North American Mesoscale (NAM) model run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) are run to examine the impact of each type of AIRS data set. The first configuration will assimilate the AIRS radiance data along with other conventional and satellite data using techniques implemented within the operational system; the second configuration will assimilate AIRS retrieved profiles instead of AIRS radiances in the same manner. Preliminary results of this study will be presented and focus on the analysis impact of the radiances and profiles for selected cases.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

What Properties of CMEs are Most Important for Space Weather?

Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and major geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasmas arriving at Earth. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are key players in both these aspects. CMEs traveling at super-Alfv nic speeds drive fast-mode MHD shocks that create the high levels of particle radiation. When a CME arrives at Earth, the CME-associated magnetic fields reconnect with Earth s magnetopause fields resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon CME arrival at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Intense shocks arriving at Earth have additional space weather effects such as sudden impulse that shrinks the magnetosphere often exposing satellites in geosynchronous orbit to the solar wind and energetic storm particle events. This paper highlights these space weather effects using CME observations space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

Solar Sources of Severe Space Weather

Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and severe geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasma arriving at Earth. Intense particle radiation is almost always caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) traveling from the Sun at super-Alfvenic speeds leading to fast-mode MHD shocks and particle acceleration by the shocks. When a CME arrives at Earth, it can interact with Earth's magnetopause resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon arrival of the CME at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Occasionally, intense geomagnetic storms are caused by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) that form in the interplanetary space when the fast solar wind from coronal holes overtakes the slow wind from the quiet regions. CIRs also accelerate particles, but when they reach several AU from the Sun, so their impact on Earth's space environment is not significant. In addition to these plasma effects, solar flares that accompany CMEs also produce excess ionization in the ionosphere causing sudden ionospheric disturbances. This paper highlights these space weather effects using space weather events observed by space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

Extratropical Cyclogenesis and Frontal Waves on Mars: Influences on Dust, Weather and the Planet's climate

Between late autumn and early spring, middle and high latitudes on Mars exhibit strong equatortopole mean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic periodwaves) [1,2]. For a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, these large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. The wavelike disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Through cyclonic/anticyclonic winds, intense shear deformations, contractions-dilatations in temperature and density, and sharp perturbations amongst atmospheric tracers (i.e., dust, volatiles (e.g., water vapor) and condensates (e.g., water-ice cloud particles)), Mars extratropical weather systems have significant subsynoptic scale ramifications by supporting atmospheric frontal waves (Fig. 1).

Hollingsworth, J. L.↗