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NASA NTRS2021

Assessing within-Field Corn and Soybean Yield Variability from WorldView-3, Planet, Sentinel-2, and Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery

Crop yield monitoring is an important component in agricultural assessment. Multispectral remote sensing instruments onboard space-borne platforms such as Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) have shown to be useful for efficiently generating timely and synoptic information on the yield status of crops across regional levels. However, the coarse spatial resolution data inherent to these sensors provides little utility at the management level. Recent satellite imagery collection advances toward finer spatial resolution (down to 1 m) alongside increased observational cadence (near daily) implies information on crops obtainable at field and within-field scales to support farming needs is now possible. To test this premise, we focus on assessing the efficiency of multiple satellite sensors, namely WorldView-3, Planet/Dove-Classic, Sentinel-2, and Landsat 8 (through Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS)), and investigate their spatial, spectral (surface reflectance (SR) and vegetation indices (VIs)), and temporal characteristics to estimate corn and soybean yields at sub-field scales within study sites in the US state of Iowa. Precision yield data as referenced to combine harvesters’ GPS systems were used for validation. We show that imagery spatial resolution of 3 m is critical to explaining 100% of the within-field yield variability for corn and soybean. Our simulation results show that moving to coarser resolution data of 10 m, 20 m, and 30 m reduced the explained variability to 86%, 72%, and 59%, respectively. We show that the most important spectral bands explaining yield variability were green (0.560 µm), red-edge (0.726 µm), and near-infrared (NIR - 0.865 µm). Furthermore, the high temporal frequency of Planet and a combination of Sentinel-2/Landsat 8 (HLS) data allowed for optimal date selection for yield map generation. Overall, we observed mixed performance of satellite-derived models with the coefficient of determination (R^2) varying from 0.21 to 0.88 (averaging 0.56) for the 30 m HLS and from 0.09 to 0.77 (averaging 0.30) for 3 m Planet. R^2 was lower for fields with higher yields, suggesting saturation of the satellite-collected reflectance features in those cases. Therefore, other biophysical variables, such as soil moisture and evapotranspiration, at similar fine spatial resolutions are likely needed alongside the optical imagery to fully explain the yields.

agriculture; yield; within-field; corn; soybean; r↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate Drivers of Arctic Tundra Variability and Change Using an Indicators Framework

This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-water (OW)) and three additional indicators (continentality, summer precipitation, and the Arctic Dipole (AD): second mode of sea level pressure variability) are analyzed with maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) and the sum of summer bi-weekly (time-integrated) NDVI (TI-NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer time-series. Climatological mean, trends, and correlations between variables are presented. Changes in SI continue to drive variations in the other indicators. As spring SI has decreased, summer OW, summer warmth, MaxNDVI, and TI-NDVI have increased. However, the initial very strong upward trends in previous studies for MaxNDVI and TI-NDVI are weakening and becoming spatially and temporally more variable as the ice retreats from the coastal areas. TI-NDVI has declined over the last decade particularly over High Arctic regions and southwest Alaska. The continentality index (CI) (maximum minus minimum monthly temperatures) is decreasing across the tundra, more so over North America than Eurasia. The relationship has weakened between SI and SWI and TI-NDVI, as the maritime influence of OW has increased along with total precipitation. The winter AD is correlated in Eurasia with spring SI, summer OW, MaxNDVI, TI-NDVI, the CI and total summer precipitation. This winter connection to tundra emphasizes the role of SI in driving the summer indicators. The winter (DJF) AD drives SI variations which in turn shape summer OW, the atmospheric SWI and NDVI anomalies. The winter and spring indicators represent potential predictors of tundra vegetation productivity a season or two in advance of the growing season.

Uma S. Bhatt↗
NASA NTRS2020

Multiwavelength Variability and Correlation Studies of Mrk 421 During Historically Low X-ray and Y-ray Activity in 2015–2016

We report a characterization of the multiband flux variability and correlations of the nearby (z=0.031) blazar Markarian 421(Mrk 421) using data from Mets ̈ahovi, Swift, Fermi-LAT, MAGIC, FACT, and other collaborations and instruments from 2014November till 2016 June. Mrk 421 did not show any prominent flaring activity, but exhibited periods of historically low activity above 1 TeV (F>1TeV<1.7×10−12ph cm−2s−1) and in the 2–10 keV (X-ray) band (F2−10 keV<3.6×10−11erg cm−2s−1),during which the Swift-BAT data suggest an additional spectral component beyond the regular synchrotron emission. The highest flux variability occurs in X-rays and very high-energy (E>0.1 TeV)γ-rays, which, despite the low activity, show a significant positive correlation with no time lag. The HRkeV and HRTeV show the harder-when-brighter trend observed in many blazars, but the trend flattens at the highest fluxes, which suggests a change in the processes dominating the blazar variability. Enlarging our dataset with data from years 2007 to 2014, we measured a positive correlation between the optical and the GeV emission over a range of about 60 d centred at time lag zero, and a positive correlation between the optical/GeV and the radio emission over a range of about 60 d centred at a time lag of 43+9−6d. This observation is consistent with the radio-bright zone being located about 0.2 parsec downstream from the optical/GeV emission regions of the jet. The flux distributions are better described with a lognormal function in most of the energy bands probed, indicating that the variability in Mrk 421 is likely produced by a multiplicative process.

Mrk 421↗
NASA NTRS2021

Continuum, cyclotron line, and absorption variability in the high-mass X-ray binary Vela X-1

Because of its complex clumpy wind, prominent cyclotron resonant scattering features, intrinsic variability, and convenient physical parameters (close distance, high inclination, and small orbital separation), which facilitate the observation and analysis of the system, Vela X-1 is one of the key systems for understanding accretion processes in high-mass X-ray binaries on all scales. We revisit Vela X-1 with two new observations taken with NuSTAR at orbital phases ∼0.68–0.78 and ∼0.36–0.52, which show a plethora of variability and allow us to study the accretion geometry and stellar wind properties of the system. We follow the evolution of spectral parameters down to the pulse period timescale using a partially covered power law continuum with a Fermi-Dirac cutoff to model the continuum and local absorption. We are able to confirm anti-correlations between the photon index and the luminosity and, for low fluxes, between the folding energy and the luminosity, implying a change of properties in the Comptonising plasma. We were not able to confirm a previously seen correlation between the cyclotron line energy and the luminosity of the source in the overall observation, but we observed a drop in the cyclotron line energy following a strong flare. We see strong variability in absorption between the two observations and within one observation (for the ∼0.36–0.52 orbital phases) that can be explained by the presence of a large-scale structure, such as accretion and photoionisation wakes in the system, and our variable line of sight through this structure.

C. M. Diez↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Soil Freeze/Thaw Variability Across North America via Ensemble Land Surface Modeling

Land surface modeling provides the opportunity to investigate winter soil processes such as soil freezing and thawing over large domains. However, the variability in simulated winter soil characteristics among land surface models and forcing datasets is not well understood. In this study, a nine-member ensemble was employed to characterize the spatial and inter-annual variability of three winter soil characteristics, annual number of frozen days, annual minimum temperature and annual number of freeze-thaw cycles over North America during the water years 2010–2016. The ensemble, including three land surface model (JULES, Noah2.7.1 and Noah-MP) and three forcing datasets (ECMWF, GDAS and MERRA2), was developed through the Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP). In many regions, there was remarkably good agreement across the ensemble for the winter soil temperatures. However, the variability among the ensemble's annual number of frozen days, as quantified with standard deviation, exceeded 150 days at the northern Pacific coastline. While the differences among the ensemble members' annual minimum temperature were typically <3 °C, the differences exceeded 6 °C north of 50°N. The ensemble members generally agreed within one to three freeze-thaw cycles in mid latitude regions, Alaska, and the south and west coasts of the USA. High variability among the ensemble, more than six freeze-thaw cycles, occurred in the Great Plains, northern Pacific coastline, and along the Appalachian Mountains. Differences in winter soil temperature characteristics were more apparent among the LSMs rather than the meteorological forcing datasets. Except for maritime regions, the Noah2.7.1 members had the fewest annual number of frozen days and the least number of freeze-thaw cycles. Noah2.7.1 also had the coldest annual minimum temperatures except for ephemeral regions. Comparisons between in-situ observations and the SEUP estimates of winter soil characteristics revealed that the modeled frozen period was much longer than observed, that the modeled annual minimum temperatures were much colder than observed, and the modeled freeze-thaw cycles occurred more frequently than observed. Excluding the high latitude sites, the observed frozen period is less than two months with the minimum temperature above − 5 °C at most of the studied sites, while the ensemble members simulated, on average, a four month frozen period with − 10 °C minimum temperature. Errors in capturing snow during the accumulation period appear to impact differences in modeled versus observed soil temperature throughout the entire winter.

Soil freeze/thaw↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seasonal and Dayurnal Planetary Albedo Variability from Six Years of DSCOVR EPIC Data

Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar radiation from the Lissajous orbital position near the Lagrangian L1 point provide continuous monitoring of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere. CERES-based angle models were used to convert the near-hourly reflected radiances of the EPIC images into a climate-style planetary albedo data-point over the sunlit hemisphere. Integration over the sunlit hemispheres averages out the meteorological weather noise, but retains the seasonal and planetary-scale variability. As the Earth rotates, this generates variations in the Earth’s planetary albedo that are precisely aligned in longitude, which constitutes the dayurnal cycle. This dayurnal variability in the planetary albedo arises from planetary-scale changes in cloud radiative properties that can be directly compared to similarly sampled climate GCM output data. Six years of EPIC data have been analyzed, showing characteristic patterns in the seasonal and dayurnal variability of the Earth’s planetary albedo. Much of the seasonal change in planetary albedo is associated with the changing DSCOVR viewing geometry and the change in solar declination. But throughout the year, the highest planetary albedos are observed over the Central Asia (Iraq) longitude, while the lowest planetary albedos occur over the Central Pacific longitude. For these longitudes, the relative seasonal changes in the planetary albedo are slowly varying and anti-correlated. Dayurnal amplitude maxima tend to occur during the July-September timeframe, with April-May and December exhibit distinct minima in the dayurnal amplitude. West Africa and the West Pacific longitudes likewise exhibit anti-correlated seasonal variability, while they also undergo anti-correlated short period oscillations. On the other hand, in nearby longitudes, there are short period spikes in planetary albedo of a few-days duration, as well as longer period oscillations that may range from a week to several months, that generally tend to be correlated.

Planetary Albedo↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Variability of Radiation, Water and Energy in the Deep Tropics Over the Last 3 Decades

Global surface energy closure and its variability depends heavily upon the surface radiative energy budget in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance is observed between energy and water fluxes in terms of energy closure in some atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process has wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures. In this presentation, we assess the surface radiative budget in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES Ed4.1, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the variability across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present. We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear. We include further analysis contrasting 6 key tropical oceanic regions (Indian Ocean east and west, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean) and the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work.

Radiation budget↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Role in a Power Grid with a High Proportion of Variable Renewables

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordination of multiple tools, including water resources modeling, ecological modeling, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. Better representation of ecological constraints and other water use details in the suit of power grid models are required to identify the hydropower flexibility to provide multiple power grid services. Impacts of water planning and hydropower operation changes to a power grid are better understood by production cost model simulations with technical and economic data, including unserved energy, reserve failures, transmission congestion to serve load, and local marginal price increases. Similarly, PCM simulation of current and future projected power grid information, including LMP, and carbon emission rates, informs short-term water release plans and long-term investments for power plant upgrades for technical and ecological needs. Hydropower operations of several case studies are simulated to understand operation patterns, revenue, water release decisions in multiple time scales (month, day, minutes), hydropower contracts scheduling, and water variability impacts.

environmental↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Split Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) System Building Energy Simulations Using Performance Maps

Multi-split variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems are highly energy-efficient HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) technologies that connect a single outdoor unit to multiple independent indoor terminal units using a common refrigerant circuit and a variable-speed compressor. Building energy simulations that incorporate VRF systems help model their unique operational characteristics and predict energy consumption in specific building designs. Traditionally, EnergyPlus models these systems by employing multiple sets of performance curves to characterize both individual terminal units and the outdoor unit. However, producing these curves is labor intensive and error prone, and they often do not capture all the key input and output variables. This paper introduces a novel approach that uses multi-dimensional performance maps to model VRF systems in building environments for space cooling. In this approach, performance maps are developed at the component level—separately for the outdoor unit and for each indoor terminal. The new modeling method is validated within EnergyPlus via a Python plug-in that contains a simple solver loop to coordinate the component-level, indoor, and outdoor unit maps. Furthermore, because performance maps can span more variables than traditional performance curves, they offer the opportunity to implement advanced controls, such as enhanced dehumidification and compressor modulation. A VRF air conditioner’s hardware system was modeled using the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model, which was automated to produce extensive performance maps for both the indoor and outdoor units.

Shen, Bo [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000336600393)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variable Stars in the Giant Satellite Galaxy Antlia 2

We report 350 pulsating variable stars found in four DECam fields (~12 deg 2 ) covering the Antlia 2 satellite galaxy. The sample of variables includes 318 RR Lyrae stars and eight anomalous Cepheids in the galaxy. Reclassification of several objects designated previously to be RR Lyrae as anomalous Cepheids get rid of the satellite's stars intervening along the line of sight. This in turn removes the need for prolific tidal disruption of the dwarf, in agreement with the recently updated proper motion and pericenter measurements based on Gaia EDR3. There are also several bright foreground RR Lyrae stars in the field, and two distant background variables located ~45 kpc behind Antlia 2. We found RR Lyrae stars over the full search area, suggesting that the galaxy is very large and likely extends beyond our observed area. The mean period of the RRab in Antlia 2 is 0.599 days, while the RRc have a mean period of 0.368 days, indicating the galaxy is an Oosterhoff-intermediate system. The distance to Antlia 2 based on the RR Lyrae stars is 124.1 kpc (μ 0 = 20.47) with a dispersion of 5.4 kpc. We measured a clear distance gradient along the semimajor axis of the galaxy, with the southeast side of Antlia 2 being ~13 kpc farther away from the northwest side. This elongation along the line of sight is likely due to the ongoing tidal disruption of Ant 2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Short–Period Variables in TESS Full–Frame Image Light Curves Identified via Convolutional Neural Networks

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission measured light from stars in ∼85% of the sky throughout its 2 yr primary mission, resulting in millions of TESS 30-minute-cadence light curves to analyze in the search for transiting exoplanets. To search this vast data set, we aim to provide an approach that is computationally efficient, produces accurate predictions, and minimizes the required human search effort. We present a convolutional neural network that we train to identify short-period variables. To make a prediction for a given light curve, our network requires no prior target parameters identified using other methods. Our network performs inference on a TESS 30-minute-cadence light curve in ∼5 ms on a single GPU, enabling large-scale archival searches. We present a collection of 14,156 short-period variables identified by our network. The majority of our identified variables fall into two prominent populations, one of close-orbit main-sequence binaries and another of δ Scuti stars. Our neural network model and related code are additionally provided as open-source code for public use and extension.

Convolutional neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2022

De novo design and Rosetta-based assessment of high-affinity antibody variable regions (Fv) against the SARS-CoV -2 spike receptor binding domain ( RBD )

The continued emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants has accentuated the growing need for fast and reliable methods for the design of potentially neutralizing antibodies (Abs) to counter immune evasion by the virus. Here, we report on the de novo computational design of high-affinity Ab variable regions (Fv) through the recombination of VDJ genes targeting the most solvent-exposed hACE2-binding residues of the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain (RBD) protein using the software tool OptMAVEn-2.0. Subsequently, we carried out computational affinity maturation of the designed variable regions through amino acid substitutions for improved binding with the target epitope. Immunogenicity of designs was restricted by preferring designs that match sequences from a 9-mer library of “human Abs” based on a human string content score. We generated 106 different antibody designs and reported in detail on the top five that trade-off the greatest computational binding affinity for the RBD with human string content scores. We further describe computational evaluation of the top five designs produced by OptMAVEn-2.0 using a Rosetta-based approach. We used Rosetta SnugDock for local docking of the designs to evaluate their potential to bind the spike RBD and performed “forward folding” with DeepAb to assess their potential to fold into the designed structures. Ultimately, our results identified one designed Ab variable region, P1.D1, as a particularly promising candidate for experimental testing. This effort puts forth a computational workflow for the de novo design and evaluation of Abs that can quickly be adapted to target spike epitopes of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants or other antigenic targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A regional (land–ocean) comparison of the seasonal to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream 1871–2011

Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871–2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms –1 ), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. This is important from a climate modelling perspective and for climate predictions in the near and longer term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing patterns and variability of building electric load profiles in time and frequency domains

The rapid development of advanced metering infrastructure provides a new data source—building electrical load profiles with high temporal resolution. Electric load profile characterization can generate useful information to enhance building energy modeling and provide metrics to represent patterns and variability of load profiles. Such characterizations can be used to identify changes to building electricity demand due to operations or faulty equipment and controls. In this study, we proposed a two-path approach to analyze high temporal resolution building electrical load profiles: (1) time-domain analysis and (2) frequency-domain analysis. Furthermore, the commonly adopted time-domain analysis can extract and quantify the distribution of key parameters characterizing load shape such as peak-base load ratio and morning rise time, while a frequency-domain analysis can identify major periodic fluctuations and quantify load variability. We implemented and evaluated both paths using whole-year 15-minute interval smart meter data of 188 commercial office building in Northern California. The results from these two paths are consistent with each other and complementary to represent full dynamics of load profiles. The time- and frequency-domain analyses can be used to enhance building energy modeling by: (1) providing more realistic assumptions about building operation schedules, and (2) validating the simulated electric load profiles using the developed variability metrics against the real building load data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamically consistent algorithms for models of incompressible multiphase polymer solutions with a variable mobility

Here we present a general strategy for developing structure and property preserving numerical algorithms for thermodynamically consistent models of incompressible multiphase polymer solutions with a variable mobility. We first present a formalism to derive thermodynamically consistent, incompressible, multiphase polymer models. Then, we develop the general strategy, known as the supplementary variable method, to devise thermodynamically consistent numerical approximations to the models. We illustrate the numerical strategy using newly developed models of incompressible diblock copolymer solutions coupled with an electric and a magnetic field, respectively. Mesh refinement is conducted to verify convergence rates of the developed schemes. Some numerical examples are given to exhibit underlying dynamics absent from and driven by the external fields, respectively, highlighting differences between models with the variable and constant mobilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling strength and failure variability due to porosity in additively manufactured metals

To model and quantify the variability in plasticity and failure of additively manufactured metals due to imperfections in their microstructure, we have developed uncertainty quantification methodology based on pseudo marginal likelihood and embedded variability techniques. We account for both the porosity resolvable in computed tomography scans of the initial material and the sub-threshold distribution of voids through a physically motivated model. Calibration of the model indicates that the sub-threshold population of defects dominates the yield and failure response. Finally, the technique also allows us to quantify the distribution of material parameters connected to microstructural variability created by the manufacturing process, and, thereby, make assessments of material quality and process control.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Latent map Gaussian processes for mixed variable metamodeling

Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitously used in sciences and engineering as metamodels. Standard GPs, however, can only handle numerical or quantitative variables. Here we introduce latent map Gaussian processes (LMGPs) that inherit the attractive properties of GPs and are also applicable to mixed data which have both quantitative and qualitative inputs. The core idea behind LMGPs is to learn a continuous, low-dimensional latent space or manifold which encodes all qualitative inputs. To learn this manifold, we first assign a unique prior vector representation to each combination of qualitative inputs. We then use a low-rank linear map to project these priors on a manifold that characterizes the posterior representations. As the posteriors are quantitative, they can be directly used in any standard correlation function such as the Gaussian or Matern. Hence, the optimal map and the corresponding manifold, along with other hyperparameters of the correlation function, can be systematically learned via maximum likelihood estimation. Through a wide range of analytic and real-world examples, we demonstrate the advantages of LMGPs over state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy and versatility. In particular, we show that LMGPs can handle variable-length inputs, have an explainable neural network interpretation, and provide insights into how qualitative inputs affect the response or interact with each other. We also employ LMGPs in Bayesian optimization and illustrate that they can discover optimal compound compositions more efficiently than conventional methods that convert compositions to qualitative variables via manual featurization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic logistic regression and variable selection: Forecasting and contextualizing civil unrest

Civil unrest can range from peaceful protest to violent furor, and researchers are working to monitor, forecast, and assess such events to allocate resources better. Twitter has become a real-time data source for forecasting civil unrest because millions of people use the platform as a social outlet. Additionally, daily word counts are used as model features, and predictive terms contextualize the reasons for the protest. To forecast civil unrest and infer the reasons for the protest, we consider the problem of Bayesian variable selection for the dynamic logistic regression model and propose using penalized credible regions to select parameters of the updated state vector. This method avoids the need for shrinkage priors, is scalable to high-dimensional dynamic data, and allows the importance of variables to vary in time as new information becomes available. A substantial improvement in both precision and F1-score using this approach is demonstrated through simulation. Finally, we apply the proposed model fitting and variable selection methodology to the problem of forecasting civil unrest in Latin America. Our dynamic logistic regression approach shows improved accuracy compared to the static approach currently used in event prediction and feature selection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗