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The Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) participates in the Fuel Fabrication Pillar of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) Office of Material Minimization and Management (M3) Office of Conversion Pillar. Y-12’s primary responsibility is to establish the fabrication process for the low-enriched uranium-molybdenum (U-10Mo) feedstock.
This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.
The objective of this chapter is to inform the reader on the essential aspects of design and fabrication of nuclear fuel systems utilized in research and test reactors. Fuel attributes of interest include mechanical, physical, and thermal properties as well as overall manufacturability. The chapter focuses primarily on plate-type fuels utilized in the highest power research reactors where design and function are critical to operational safety and successfully meeting each reactor’s unique mission.
The Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) participates in the fuel fabrication pillar of lhe National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA's) Office of Material Minimization and Management (M3) Office of Conversion Pillar. Y-12's primary responsibility is to establish a reliable fabrication process of low-enriched uranium-molybdenum (LEU-Mo) feedstock tor United States High Performance Research Reactors (US HPRRs). This update compares US HPRR LEU-Mo feedstock fabrication ettorts over the past several casting campaigns at Y-12 which vary in process methodologies and fabrication parameters. With recent changes to the latest feedstock casting campaign, Process Design Standard-2 (PD-STD-2). Y-12 has seen a significant decrease in isotopic uranium variability of the fuel feedstock fabricated.
This chapter discusses risks from unintentional or illicit movement of nuclear and radioactive material out of regulatory control through international border crossing points, summarizes international efforts to build capacity and support border security, and discusses how detection equipment can be used to screen for penetrating radiation at traditional border crossing points.
When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.
A Plan to Qualify New Fuel for the High Flux Isotope Reactor for Material Minimization Poster for presenting at Waste Management Symposium 2023, which starts 2/26/2023.
The Department of Energy invests tens of millions of dollars each year to develop the next generation of nuclear engineering modeling & simulation (M&S) tools. These tools are used to analyze advanced reactor designs and the safety of current nuclear operations. As computers become more powerful, we are able to enhance resolution in our calculations. This improved resolution is taking us to a point where the limitations of simulation capability are in the quality of data, including our ability to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the data. In order to model systems of interest with increasing accuracy, the industry must improve key nuclear data measurements. Thus, M&S tools need evaluated and quality-assured experimental data for validation purposes. The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) compiles and evaluates experiment data in a handbook that can be used by criticality safety engineers and others to validate computer codes and cross-section libraries at nuclear facilities. Both critical and subcritical experiments are included in the handbook. Figure 1 organizes all the benchmark evaluations that have been performed by the isotope of interest, in this case Pb, and the average neutron energy the system. Compared to other isotopes of interest for nuclear applications, there are few benchmark evaluations for Pb systems. The lack of integral measurements to determine errors in Pb cross-section data has caused the latest nuclear cross-section libraries to over/underestimate k eff compared to experimental results. Therefore, this evaluation fills an important knowledge gap in benchmark evaluations.
Integral benchmarks for criticality safety and nuclear data validation require expensive uncertainty quantification studies. Commonly, the uncertainty quantification ignores correlations between experiments that share components. Experiments such as the TEX (Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments) campaigns consist of many shared parts between experiments, such as fuel, which creates a strong correlation in their errors. While these correlations are known to exist, they are often not estimated due to the complexity of such calculations. This paper describes a software package that uses an intuitive method of determining the covariance for each of the experimental components, providing a correlation matrix for each family of parts across the multiple cases examined within a benchmark. The code uses the TEX-HEU campaign as a proof of concept, and we show that the correlations can be calculated with information commonly found in ICSBEP (International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project) benchmarks. The estimated covariances are used in χ 2 trending studies to evaluate their impact on nuclear data validation. The covariance determination code can be easily integrated into current benchmark evaluations as well as reevaluating legacy benchmark uncertainties. Uncertainty correlation calculations should become the baseline for criticality safety integral experiment benchmarks and can now be easily calculated with the described software package.
SNM verification can be accomplished via two methods i.e. destructive analysis (DA) or nondestructive analysis (NDA). The DA modes are much more accurate compared to NDA modes; nevertheless, the sample's physical integrity is destroyed in the process. Techniques such as ICP-MS, ID-ICP-MS, TI-MS are few examples of DA, where a bulk material is ground and mixed with a solution (some form of acid) to acquire a homogenous sample. In contrast, NDA modes utilize signals emitted by the sample such as gamma, neutrons, light, or heat to analyze samples under investigation. HPGe detectors are some of the most frequently used gamma detectors to assay SNM. However, in a high activity scenario it provides a large uncertainty and sometimes becomes unfeasible to measure low energy gamma rays. Meanwhile, neutron detectors are not affected by the gamma background, therefore they can be used in addition to the gamma detectors to verify total fissile mass ({sup 235}U + {sup 239}Pu) of SNM. The AWCC is one of the thermal neutron NDA systems developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). It consists of 42 {sup 3}He detectors to measure gross neutrons (singles), coincidence neutrons (doubles), higher order multiplicity counting (triples, quadruples, etc.). It can effectively operate in both active and passive neutron interrogation modes. It can utilize AmLi, AmBe, or {sup 252}Cf active interrogation neutron sources. It is used to verify declared fissile mass ({sup 235}U or {sup 239}Pu) present in SNM. Objectives: Calibrate HPGe and AWCC for lightly irradiated (with enough {sup 137}Cs gamma background) ∼93% enriched HEU fuels; Verify fissile mass ({sup 235}U +{sup 239}Pu) content using AWCC and HPGe; Model and benchmark AWCC in MCNP6. Neutron coincidence and multiplicity counting: Two or more neutrons are coincident if they are detected by the system within the specified gate window; In AWCC: Gate window is 128 μsec; Induced fission in fissile material such as {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu - emission of time correlated neutrons - Singles, Doubles, Triples, or Quadruples; No induced fission in non-fissile materials- no correlated neutrons - only singles. SNM can be verified with high accuracy and precision using gamma and neutron NDA instruments such as HPGe and AWCC. Interaction with thermal neutrons. Non-fissile atoms - do not emit correlated neutrons. Fissile atoms - emit correlated neutrons during induced fission events. The time correlated neutrons can be detected by using coincidence or multiplicity counters such as AWCC. Likewise, {sup 235}U produces 186 keV gamma peak that can be measured by a HPGe gamma detector. Counts under 186 keV gamma peak provide information about {sup 235}U content. Combining AWCC and HPGe results can provide better understanding of special nuclear material under investigation.
Dry processing remains the primary solution for managing the down-blending of irradiated IGR HEU fuel. Several tasks have been initiated and completed to achieve this, including lab modernization, lab-scale and full-scale testing, designing and fabricating an in-paddle mixing drum, and commissioning both a down-blending system and a crushing and milling system. Additionally, a testing and training center was modernized, the equipment was successfully commissioned, and the IGR HEU fuel blocks were repackaged into daily containers. The training of operators and the construction of a new down-blending facility are tasks that will need to be completed in the near future. The progress in these areas continues to validate that the proposed method for down-blending irradiated HEU graphite fuel, followed by cementation of the down-blended material for permanent disposition, appears to be achievable.
Pebble-bed reactors (PBRs) utilize hundreds of thousands of fuel pebbles, which continuously circulate through the core, in lieu of traditional fuel assemblies to generate fissions and produce power. The use of unmarked fuel pebbles presents a challenge for international safeguards verification that nuclear material is not being diverted. To ensure pebble diversion is not taking place, new methods for accounting for and monitoring the pebbles should be examined to determine an appropriate methodology for performing bulk accountancy with pebbles. Here, this work examines the use of statistical methods for determining if the reactor is within a declared range of operation by examining the statistical distribution of pebble burnup as they are discharged from the core. Using this methodology, we created a model that detects diversion over 95% of the time, over multiple diversion pathways, if the reactor core maintains a constant power density during the diversion process and only falsely labels a diversion case nominal 2% of the time. For a diversion scenario where the reactor is maintained at a constant power, the statistical analysis can correctly identify if diversion is occurring over 80% of the time; however, nearly 20% of specific diversion pathways are mislabeled nominal. These results provide a basis and framework for exploring the further use of statistical methods to determine where these methods could be most useful and where additional methods, such as machine learning, could be used to capture if diversion is occurring in pebble-bed reactors.
Inhalation of uranium aerosols produced via human activities such as mining can pose a threat to human respiratory systems. Uranium oxide particulates emit short-range alpha particles that elicit DNA and direct damage, beyond associated physiochemical heavy-metal toxicity, to internal epithelial tissues. The availability of reliable in vitro models to study radiation exposure can greatly enhance our ability to understand and combat the biological impacts of exposure. However, the toxicological effects of alpha emissions and/or the oxidation states of uranium particulates vary across different human lung epithelial cell models and have not been systematically compared. We have endeavored to address this limitation by comparing impacts in three different human lung cell models: primary human bronchial and tracheal epithelial cells, primary human small airway epithelial cells, and human adenocarcinoma alveolar basal epithelial cells. Other studies have mainly investigated the toxicity of depleted uranium. Here, we compared the exposure of uranium oxide particulates (U 3 O 8 and UO 3 ) of different enrichment states on the chosen cell systems. Each cell model was exposed to 0.1, 1, 10, 50, 100, and 500 µg/mL of depleted U 3 O 8 , highly-enriched U 3 O 8 , and natural UO 3 particulates for 24 hours in submerged monolayer cultures. We compared viability and superoxide dismutase activity results across cell lines and uranium enrichment/ oxidative states. The results showed that 1) the oxide state of the particulates affected cell viability, implying that uranium’s different oxidation states contribute to different toxicological responses, and 2) each cell model reacts differently when exposed to uranium oxides, which may provide insights into the mechanistic processes associated with the exposure of radiological particulates on different biological systems. For instance, increased uranium enrichment corresponds to increased toxicity for the primary cells, but not for the immortalized cells. Our study shows that a holistic approach that incorporates similarities between model systems and types of radionuclides is required to truly develop empirical solutions for radiation exposure.
Nondestructively determining the initial enrichment of irradiated uranium is a complex and laborious multivariable problem due to the presence of fission products. This work demonstrates the capabilities of machine learning to analyze gamma-ray spectral data to determine initial enrichment without knowledge of the decay time of the sample. The approach developed is agnostic to the particular scenario and is applicable to a wide variety of applications in nuclear forensics and nuclear safeguards. We irradiated 5 mg uranium standard reference materials at discrete enrichment values ranging from 0.02% to 97% 235 U (weight percent) in UT Austin’s Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory TRIGA Mark II 1.1 MW research reactor, allowed each to decay for 8 hours, and then measured each sample via gamma-ray spectrometry for 50 hours post-irradiation yielding 1,400 individual gamma-ray spectra discretized into 8,192 energy bins. We then trained decision trees models to analyze individual gamma-ray spectra and estimate the associated initial enrichment without knowledge of the time since end of irradiation. We evaluated the performance of the models with a reserved test set not used for training or calibrating the model. A decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 2.3% (weight percent 235 U). Next, we implemented a principal component analysis pre-processing routine of the gamma-ray spectrometry data to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset from 8,192 channels in the spectrum to 10 principal components while retaining over 99% of the inherent variance in the data. Decision tree models constructed with these data demonstrated decreased mean absolute error in enrichment determination, reduced computational time, and decreased complexity. A single decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 0.05% (weight percent 235 U). Furthermore, we analyzed these models with learning curves to ensure that overfitting did not occur. The capabilities provided by these models can be naturally extended to other application-focused measurements in the fields of nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and nuclear non-proliferation.
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This report provides a performance summary of the “Isotopics by Nuclides” tool in InterSpec. The primary objective of the NA-241 FY25 project was the detection and characterization of non-homogeneous uranium samples. However, the tool also demonstrates effectiveness in determining the enrichment of homogeneous uranium or plutonium from single gamma spectra. This paper presents a subset of evaluated data to avoid distribution limitations while offering potential users’ insight into the tool's performance.
Two HM-5 units were used to measure uranium items. For each measurement, the enrichment calibration was determined. The built-in software to determine the enrichment calibration was NAIGEM version 2015.1.315. The data were later analyzed by a standalone NAIGEM, version 2.1.4, in order to study the behavior of the NAIGEM software with the HM-5 data and the relationships between various parameters in the NAIGEM code and the HM-5.
In December 2023, the United States pledged at a United Nations conference to triple nuclear energy by 2050. In May of 2025 a new administration announced plans to quadruple nuclear energy by 2025, setting a new target that requires understanding the key infrastructure and resources needed to achieve large-scale deployment. This study attempts to quantify “what it takes” to deploy an additional 200 GWe of nuclear capacity. It projects demand levels for workforce, fuel, uranium mining and enrichment, waste management, supply chain, land, licensing, and water. Demand growth is also contextualized. For example, the peak number of construction workers required is approximately 215,000, a 37 % increase in the current US utility construction workforce. Up to 80,000 MT/year of mined uranium will be needed, necessitating a 60-fold increase in US mining production or a doubling of global mining if sourced externally. Advanced reactor fuels, uranium mining, and nuclear-grade equipment production would need substantial expansion. Operational workforce, enrichment needs, and licensing submissions also face significant increases. Although water consumption may see relatively lower increases, securing water rights poses unique challenges. This study consolidates various demand metrics in a broad context, highlighting the necessity of early preparations, such as workforce training, to support a tripling of nuclear energy. While it outlines the demand-side requirements, it does not assess the difficulties of ramping up or other supply-side issues. The findings also shed light on the impact of reactor size and reactor technology on various demand metrics.