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At least 703 records · Page 39

Comparison of aircraft measurements during GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA

The indirect effect of atmospheric aerosol particles on the Earth's radiation balance remains one of the most uncertain components affecting climate change throughout the industrial period. The large uncertainty is partly due to the incomplete understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions. One objective of the GoAmazon2014/5 and the ACRIDICON (Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation, and Radiation Interactions and Dynamics of Convective Cloud Systems)-CHUVA (Cloud Processes of the Main Precipitation Systems in Brazil) projects was to understand the influence of emissions from the tropical megacity of Manaus (Brazil) on the surrounding atmospheric environment of the rainforest and to investigate its role in the life cycle of convective clouds. During one of the intensive observation periods (IOPs) in the dry season from 1 September to 10 October 2014, comprehensive measurements of trace gases and aerosol properties were carried out at several ground sites. In a coordinated way, the advanced suites of sophisticated in situ instruments were deployed aboard both the US Department of Energy Gulfstream-1 (G1) aircraft and the German High Altitude and Long-Range Research Aircraft (HALO) during three coordinated flights on 9 and 21 September and 1 October. Here, we report on the comparison of measurements collected by the two aircraft during these three flights. Such comparisons are challenging but essential for assessing the data quality from the individual platforms and quantifying their uncertainty sources. Similar instruments mounted on the G1 and HALO collected vertical profile measurements of aerosol particle number concentrations and size distribution, cloud condensation nuclei concentrations, ozone and carbon monoxide mixing ratios, cloud droplet size distributions, and downward solar irradiance. We find that the above measurements from the two aircraft agreed within the measurement uncertainties. The relative fraction of the aerosol chemical composition measured by instruments on HALO agreed with the corresponding G1 data, although the total mass loadings only have a good agreement at high altitudes. Furthermore, possible causes of the discrepancies between measurements on the G1 and HALO are examined in this paper. Based on these results, criteria for meaningful aircraft measurement comparisons are discussed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Interplanetary particles and fields, November 22 to December 6, 1977 - Helios, Voyager and Imp observations between 0.6 and 1.6 AU

The paper presents a wealth of data obtained at approximately 0.6, 1, and 1.6 AU by Helios 1 and 2, Voyager 1 and 2, and Imp 7 and 8, describing the evolution and interactions of particles, flows, and fields in the period 22 November to 6 December 1977. Three flow systems were observed in the period under consideration: (1) a corotating stream and a stream interface associated with a coronal hole; (2) a shock wave and an energetic particle event associated with a 2B flare; and (3) an isolated shock wave of uncertain origin. These phenomena are discussed in some detail.

Burlaga, L.↗

A Boltzmann machine for the organization of intelligent machines

In the present technological society, there is a major need to build machines that would execute intelligent tasks operating in uncertain environments with minimum interaction with a human operator. Although some designers have built smart robots, utilizing heuristic ideas, there is no systematic approach to design such machines in an engineering manner. Recently, cross-disciplinary research from the fields of computers, systems AI and information theory has served to set the foundations of the emerging area of the design of intelligent machines. Since 1977 Saridis has been developing an approach, defined as Hierarchical Intelligent Control, designed to organize, coordinate and execute anthropomorphic tasks by a machine with minimum interaction with a human operator. This approach utilizes analytical (probabilistic) models to describe and control the various functions of the intelligent machine structured by the intuitively defined principle of Increasing Precision with Decreasing Intelligence (IPDI) (Saridis 1979). This principle, even though resembles the managerial structure of organizational systems (Levis 1988), has been derived on an analytic basis by Saridis (1988). The purpose is to derive analytically a Boltzmann machine suitable for optimal connection of nodes in a neural net (Fahlman, Hinton, Sejnowski, 1985). Then this machine will serve to search for the optimal design of the organization level of an intelligent machine. In order to accomplish this, some mathematical theory of the intelligent machines will be first outlined. Then some definitions of the variables associated with the principle, like machine intelligence, machine knowledge, and precision will be made (Saridis, Valavanis 1988). Then a procedure to establish the Boltzmann machine on an analytic basis will be presented and illustrated by an example in designing the organization level of an Intelligent Machine. A new search technique, the Modified Genetic Algorithm, is presented and proved to converge to the minimum of a cost function. Finally, simulations will show the effectiveness of a variety of search techniques for the intelligent machine.

Moed, Michael C.↗

Learning with Adaptive Conservativeness for Distributionally Robust Optimization: Incentive Design for Voltage Regulation: Preprint

Information asymmetry between the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) obstructs designing effective incentives for voltage regulation. To capture this effect, we employ a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, where the DSO seeks to overcome the information asymmetry and refine its incentive strategies by learning from DERA behavior over multiple iterations. We introduce a model-based online learning algorithm for the DSO, aimed at inferring the relationship between incentives and DERA responses. Given the uncertain nature of these responses, we also propose a distributionally robust incentive design model to control the probability of voltage regulation failure and then reformulate it into a convex problem. This model allows the DSO to periodically revise distribution assumptions on uncertain parameters in the decision model of the DERA. Finally, we present a gradient-based method that permits the DSO to adaptively modify its conservativeness level, measured by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, according to historical voltage regulation performance. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

distribution system operator↗

Characterizing the Potential for Sustainable Azelaic Acid Production from High-Oleic Vegetable Oil Using Two-Step Oxidative Cleavage

Azelaic acid is a renewable monomer conventionally produced via the energy-intensive ozonolysis of oleic acid. Recent advancements have enabled the use of high-oleic vegetable oils (rather than tallow-derived oleic acid) and replaced ozonolysis with two-step oxidative cleavage using hydrogen and oxygen. Although this shift would improve process safety, the financial viability and environmental implications remain uncertain. In this study, we characterized the sustainability of azelaic acid production from high-oleic vegetable oil using two-step oxidative cleavage. Process design, simulation, technoeconomic analysis (TEA), and life cycle assessment (LCA) were executed under uncertainty using BioSTEAM. The modeled system produces azelaic acid at a market-competitive minimum selling price (MSP) of 8.32 [4.93−13.34] $\$kg$ −1 (median 5th−95th percentiles), below the minimum estimated market price of 9.93 $\$kg$ −1 . Further, it has the potential to approach carbon neutrality (0.0 [−5.5 to 5.6] kg of CO 2 -eq kg −1 ) under displacement allocation. Improvements to dihydroxylation (86 to 99%) and oxidative cleavage conversions (93 to 99%) would reduce MSP to $\$5.24$ kg −1 and carbon intensity to −1.90 kg of CO 2 -eq kg −1 (displacement). Additionally, increasing the feedstock triolein content (75 to 85%) lowers MSP by $\$0.82$ kg −1 . Overall, this research demonstrates the potential for financially viable production of azelaic acid from vegetable oils and the utility of agile TEA/LCA.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Satellite and Ground System Solutions at Your Fingertips

In the summer of 1998, the blockbuster action movie Armageddon captivated audiences with a thrilling doomsday plot about a meteor the size of Texas that was racing towards the Earth. Though the premise of the movie was purely fictional, the unfortunate reality is that near-Earth asteroids such as the one portrayed in the film do exist. On December 23, 2004, NASA announced that an asteroid it anticipated to pass near the Earth on April 13, 2029, had been assigned the highest score to date on the universally used Torino Impact Hazard Scale. At first, the flyby distance for the asteroid, dubbed MN4, was uncertain and an Earth impact could not be ruled out. The odds of impact were initially believed to be 1 in 300, high enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers around the world, but were then escalated to 1 in 37 on December 27. NASA officials noted, however, that these odds should not be of public concern, since they were likely to change on a day-to-day basis as new data were received. The officials were correct in their assertion, as any chances of an impact with Earth in 2029 were completely ruled out later that same day. Integral Systems, Inc., a leading provider of satellite ground systems and the first company to offer an integrated suite of commercial-off-the-shelf software products for satellite command and control, is helping NASA keep a careful watch for any close-encountering asteroids with its tracking technology. The company supported the first NASA Discovery mission, the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) program, back in 1996, and has expanded its business by building more ground systems for a greater variety of satellites than any other company in the world. (NASA has since launched seven more Discovery missions, with the eighth lifting off earlier this year.) The experience gained from the company s participation in developing satellite command and control ground systems for the NEAR program has bolstered its flagship product line, the EPOCH Integrated Product Suite (IPS), first featured in Spinoff 1997, and led to the creation of its latest product, the Skylight Direct Broadcast Ground Terminal.

Source record↗

A Radial-velocity Search for Binary RR Lyrae Variables

We report 272 radial velocities for 19 RR Lyrae variables. For most of the stars we have radial velocities for the complete pulsation cycle. These data are used to determine robust center-of-mass radial velocities that have been compared to values from the literature in a search for evidence of binary systems. Center-of-mass velocities were determined for each star using Fourier Series and template fits to the radial velocities. Our center-of-mass velocities have uncertainties from ±0.16 km s{sup −1} to ±2.5 km s{sup −1}, with a mean uncertainty of ±0.92 km s{sup −1}. We combined our center-of-mass velocities with values from the literature to look for deviations from the mean center-of-mass velocity of each star. Fifteen RR Lyrae show no evidence of binary motion (BK And, CI And, Z CVn, DM Cyg, BK Dra, RR Gem, XX Hya, SZ Leo, BX Leo, TT Lyn, CN Lyr, TU Per, U Tri, RV UMa, and AV Vir). In most cases this conclusion is reached due to the sporadic sampling of the center-of-mass velocities over time. Three RR Lyrae show suspicious variation in the center-of-mass velocities that may indicate binary motion but do not prove it (SS Leo, ST Leo, and AO Peg). TU UMa was observed by us near a predicted periastron passage (at 0.14 in orbital phase) but the absence of additional center-of-mass velocities near periastron makes the binary detection, based on radial velocities alone, uncertain. Two stars in our sample show Hγ emission in phases 0.9–1.0: SS Leo and TU UMa.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Cooling Loop A Anomaly of 2013: A Case Study in Human-Systems Resilience

Throughout the history of human spaceflight, NASA has employed an operational paradigm of 24/7 dependence on experts in Mission Control Center (MCC). In addition to nominal flight control and mission operations, these 85+ experts per shift manage anomaly detection, diagnosis, and response, and support the crew in real-time in performing maintenance and repair, procedure execution, and other complex mission operations. Future long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO) will not operate successfully using this same Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) where crew rely on ground controllers, have ready access to resupply, and have a fallback plan of evacuation. As distance from Earth increases and the communication delay grows, crews will need to respond independently and adequately to time-critical vehicle malfunctions. It will not always be sufficient or even possible to ‘safe the system’ and then wait upon ground intervention. A new and radically different HSIA is needed to accommodate the paradigm shift of deep-space travel. Historical International Space Station (ISS) data show that for a 30-day mission, the likelihood of a high-consequence vehicle anomaly of uncertain origin that requires rapid response is greater than 10%. The likelihood of such an event is 50% by the fourth month of the mission, and it grows exponentially with time. Our team has conducted in-depth investigations into these events and their corresponding anomaly resolution activities. Using MCC and Mission Evaluation Room (MER) anomaly resolution artifacts (including meeting summaries, caution and warning data, and ISS daily summaries), we created timelines detailing ground actions and in-orbit events for two significant anomalies. We then mapped these timelines onto Mars transit conditions, introducing a ground-crew communications time delay and shifting immediate response, time-critical task execution, and vehicle commanding to the crew. In detailing successful anomaly resolution in transit to Mars, the timelines highlight where effective resolution requires drastically evolved onboard capabilities. Though this research has yielded a rich data set based on ground response in past missions, there is still insufficient knowledge to assess the potential impact of inflight anomalies on a small autonomous crew on future LDEMs beyond LEO. To begin building an evidence base that will inform future HSIA standards and requirements, we are developing an approach to systematically capture crew anomaly response and procedure execution during early Artemis missions. Being the first human spaceflight beyond LEO since Apollo, early Artemis missions provide a rare and unique opportunity to serve as a testbed for Mars missions. Our work aims to capitalize on planned data collection to derive crew operational responses to anomalous events in real-time. Our team is also researching the level of simulation fidelity required for empirically validating proposed HSIA standards and evaluating HSIA implementations for LDEMs beyond LEO. This work will produce a trade space study of HSIA simulation objectives and fidelity requirements. Ultimately, these research efforts will assist in developing the standards and technologies needed to build a next-generation HSIA for LDEMs beyond LEO.

human-systems integration architecture↗

Understanding the plasticity contributions during laser-shock loading and spall failure of Cu microstructures at the atomic scales

A hybrid atomic-scale and continuum modeling framework is used to study the microstructural evolution during the laser-induced shock deformation and failure (spallation) of copper microstructures. A continuum two-temperature model (TTM) is used to account for the interaction of Cu atoms with a laser in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The MD-TTM simulations study the effect of laser loading conditions (laser fluence) on the microstructure (defects) evolution during various stages of shock wave propagation, reflection, and interaction in single-crystal (sc) Cu systems. In addition, the role of the microstructure is investigated by comparing the defect evolution and spall response of sc-Cu and nanocrystalline (nc) Cu systems. The defect (stacking faults and twin faults) evolution behavior in the metal at various times is further characterized using virtual in situ selected area electron diffraction and x-ray diffraction during various stages of evolution of microstructure. Here, the simulations elucidate the uncertain relation between spall strength and strain-rate and the much stronger relation between the spall strength and the temperatures generated due to laser shock loading for the small Cu sample dimensions considered here.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Time-of-Use and Demand Charge Battery Controller Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Transitioning from Simulation to Reality: Applying Chatter Detection Models to Real-World Machining Data

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, is a critical challenge in high-speed machining operations, affecting tool life, product surface quality, and overall process efficiency. While machine learning models trained on simulated data have shown promise in detecting chatter, their real-world applicability remains uncertain due to discrepancies between simulated and actual machining environments. The primary goal of this study is to bridge the gap between simulation-based machine learning models and real-world applications by developing and validating a Random Forest-based chatter detection system. This research focuses on improving manufacturing efficiency through reliable chatter detection by integrating Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL). The study applies a Random Forest classification model trained on over 140,000 simulated machining datasets, incorporating techniques like Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL) to adapt the model for real-world operational data. The model is validated against 1600 real-world machining datasets, achieving an accuracy of 86.1%, with strong precision and recall scores. The results demonstrate the model’s robustness and potential for practical implementation in industrial settings, highlighting challenges such as sensor noise and variability in machining conditions. This work advances the use of predictive analytics in machining processes, offering a data-driven solution to improve manufacturing efficiency through more reliable chatter detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Pioneer spacecraft reliability and performance

The Pioneer 6 to 9 interplanetary spacecraft were launched in 1965, 66, 67, and 68. All continued to operate in orbits about the sun, gathering data on the solar system environment near one astronomical unit (AU) from the sun. Pioneer 10 was launched in March 1972, returned information about the planet Jupiter which it encountered in December 1973, and is now operating at six AU from the sun on a solar system escape trajectory. Pioneer 11, launched in April 1973, will encounter Jupiter in December 1974. The long-term mission success and performance of these programs (with emphasis on Pioneers 10 and 11) is reviewed in terms of these factors: philosophy of design for uncertain environments, simplicity in operation, redundancy, the test program, and the actual environment encountered.

Dixon, W. J.↗

High resolution CCD spectra of stars in globular clusters. Part 2: Metals and CNO in M71

Palomar coude CCD spectra of resolution 0.3 and 0.6 has been used to redetermine abundances in five stars of the relatively metal rich globular cluster M71. The (Fe/H) value is restricted to the limits of -0.6 to -1.0. The largest source of uncertainty is a systematic difference in f-values between those derived via the Holweger-Muller (1974) solar model and the Bell et al. (1976) solar model. If we use absolute f-values measured by the Oxford group (Blackwell et al. 1982) we find Fe/H to lie in the range of -0.6 to -0.75, i.e., as given by using the Bell et al. solar model. The relative abundances of the light elements, i.e., Na through Ca and probably including Ti show an average excess relative to iron of 0.4 dex. The effect of this difference on metal indices derived from broad- and narrow- band photometry is discussed. For three stars we find O/H = -0.6 using absolute f-values. For CN an analysis of individual rotational lines of the 2-0 band of the red system yields lines in the (C/H,N/H) plane that are consistent with either an original C/Fe = N/Fe = 0 or a modest increase in N relative to C due to CN burning and mixing. A search for C-13N was not successful and an uncertain lower limit of C-12/C-13 near 10 was obtained.

Leep, E. M.↗

High-resolution CCD spectra of stars in globular clusters. II - Metals and CNO in M71

Palomar coude CCD spectra of resolution 0.3 and 0.6 has been used to redetermine abundances in five stars of the relatively metal rich globular cluster M71. The (Fe/H) value is restricted to the limits of -0.6 to -1.0. The largest source of uncertainty is a systematic difference in f-values between those derived via the Holweger-Muller (1974) solar model and the Bell et al. (1976) solar model. If we use absolute f-values measured by the Oxford group (Blackwell et al. 1982) we find Fe/H to lie in the range of -0.6 to -0.75, i.e., as given by using the Bell et al. solar model. The relative abundances of the light elements, i.e., Na through Ca and probably including Ti show an average excess relative to iron of 0.4-dex. The effect of this difference on metal indices derived from broad- and narrow- band photometry is discussed. For three stars we find O/H = -0.6 using absolute f-values. For CN an analysis of individual rotational lines of the 2-0 band of the red system yields lines in the (C/H, N/H) plane that are consistent with either an original C/Fe = N/Fe = 0 or a modest increase in N relative to C due to CN burning and mixing. A search for C-13N was not successful and an uncertain lower limit of C-12/C-13 near 10 was obtained.

Leep, E. Myckky↗

LARC-IA: A flexible backbone polyimide

A new linear, aromatic, thermoplastic polyimide, prepared from oxydiphthalic anhydride (ODPA) and 3,4'-oxydianiline (ODA) in diglyme and identified as LARC-IA, was synthesized and evaluated. The monomers are relatively inexpensive and physiologically safe. Molecular weight was controlled by use of a monofunctional anhydride, phthalic anhydride (PA), in order to promote controlled flow and wetting properties. The polymer is considered a safe alternative to commercially available LARC-TPI which is prepared with an expensive diamine of uncertain carcinogenicity. The evaluation was based primarily on the polymer's adhesive properties as determined by thermal and water boil exposure of lap shear specimens. Strengths were determined at room temperature, 177, 204 and 232 C before and after exposure to determine the adhesive system's durability to adverse environments over a period of time. Other properties (FWT, G(1c), film and composite properties) were examined which were determined to be typical of a high temperature polyimide. Results of the study show a favorable comparison to LARC-TPI, a commercially available polyimide.

Progar, Donald J.↗

Submillimetric Spectroscopic Observations of Volatiles in Comet C-2004 Q2 (Machholz)

Submillimeter spectroscopic observations of comets provide an important tool for understanding their chemical composition and enable a taxonomic classification. Aims. We aim to determine the production rates of several parent- and product volatiles and the C-12/C-13 isotopic carbon ratio in the long-period comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz), which is likely to originate from the Oort Cloud. Methods. The line emission from several molecules in the coma was measured with high signal-to-noise ratio in January 2005 at heliocentric distance of 1.2 AU by means of high-resolution spectroscopic observations using the Submillimeter Telescope (SMT) at the Arizona Radio Observatory (ARO). Results. We have obtained production rates of several volatiles (CH3OH, HCN, H(sup 13)CN, HNC, H2CO, CO, and CS) by comparing the observed and simulated line-integrated intensities. We calculated the synthetic profiles using a radiative transfer code that includes collisions between neutrals and electrons, and the effects of radiative pumping of the fundamental vibrational levels by solar infrared radiation. Furthermore, multiline observations of the CH3OH J = 7-6 series allow us to estimate the rotational temperature using the rotation diagram technique. We find that the CH3OH population distribution of the levels sampled by these lines can be described by a rotational temperature of 40 +/- 3 K. Derived mixing ratios relative to hydrogen cyanide are CO/CH3OH/H2CO/CS/HNC/HC-13N/HCN= 30.9/24.6/4.8/0.57/0.031/0.013/1 assuming a pointing offset of 8" due to the uncertain ephemeris at the time of the observations and the telescope pointing error. Conclusions. The measured relative molecular abundances in C/2004 Q2 (Machholz) are between low- to typical values of those obtained in Oort Cloud comets, suggesting that it has visited the inner solar system previously and undergone thermal processing. The HNC/HCN abundance ratio of approx 3.1% is comparable to that found in other comets, accounting for the dependence on the heliocentric distance, and could possibly be explained by ion-molecule chemical processes in the low-temperature atmosphere. From a tentative HC-13N detection, the measured value of 97 +/- 30 for the HC-12N/HC-13N isotopologue pair is consistent with a telluric value. The outgassing variability observed in the HCN production rates over a period of two hours is consistent with the rotation of the nucleus derived using different observational techniques.

chemical composition↗

Modeling Whitecaps on Global Scale

Whitecaps play an important role in the surface-atmosphere interactions across the ocean. They are directly linked to the energy dissipation rate during wave breaking and transfer of heat, momentum, and gas/aerosol exchange from the wind to the sea surface. Although the first models of W were dependent only on wind speeds, a large number of diverse models based on wind and sea state which include wave height, wave age, friction velocity, and stability effects have been proposed since then. However, it is recognized that most of the proposed W models have strong systematic (e.g., zonal bias) and random errors when compared against observations. This is partly due to the differences in environmental conditions, measurement techniques, and geographical locations among these studies. But, some of these biases are linked to the inability of the proposed models to capture the variability in W in certain wind/wave regimes. Despite the knowledge of existing biases, W residual relationships from the models with wind and wave fields remain highly uncertain, with residual trends varying between the published studies. Here, we take advantage of the availability of relatively dense observations of W from WindSat microwave satellite retrievals in combination with the University of Miami wave model which was recently incorporated within the NASA GMAO/GEOS system (GEOS-UMWM). We use Windsat W retrievals to assess and constrain the previously published W models and understand the relationships of residuals from models in different wind/wave regimes. We link these unexplained residual variations to additional factors such as swell index, drag coefficient etc and add information to the existing whitecap models. Since Windsat retrievals cover wide range of environmental conditions, it helps to reduce the uncertainties associated with differences in measurement techniques. Regression of wind-wave fields against all Windsat data points (CTL) results in larger residuals for lower wave age and W is overestimated upto ~4% for wave age < 10 and underestimated by upto ~2% as wave age increases. We attest to this bias by considering two approaches. One is to perform regression separately for different stages of wave development such as developing sea, fully developed, and wind sea regimes thereby understanding the sensitivity of regression coefficients to sea state (EXP1). Another is to derive coefficients of W models in EXP1 as a function of additional wind/wave factors such as swell index, drag coefficient, and mean squared slope, deriving more nonlinear W models (EXP2). EXP2 provides reduction in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 0.1-0.3%. Sea surface drag has a stronger relationship with regression coefficients compared to swell index.These additional factors provide improved parameterizations in different wind and wave age regimes, with smaller unexplained/residual variations in W that has been a major concern in the W community.

Raman, Aishwarya↗

Time-of-Use and Demand Charge Battery Controller Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control: Preprint

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗