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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Andersen, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Overcoming Dimensionality Barriers in Satellite Data to Elucidate SPECTRAL-SPATIAL-TEMPORAL Trends in the Ocean

The weighted harmonic mean of spectral wavelengths can be used as an index of optical water types that share similar spectral signatures.This technique can be translated to relate spectral shape between sensors of varying spectral resolution.The output along a continuum of color values enables spatio-temporal analysis of subtle spectral shifts.Directional trends in absorption and backscatter data lend a hidden context to changes in water color. Conceptualization of multiple data dimensions is imperative as passive/active sensors grow increasingly sophisticated in nature.

Vandermeulen, Ryan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Topological analysis of X-ray CT data for the recognition and trending of subtle changes in microstructure under material aging

X-ray computed tomography (CT) is an established non-destructive tool for 3D imaging of multiphasic composites. Numerous applications of X-ray CT in medical diagnosis and materials characterization have been reported, many involving field-specific innovations in the imaging technology itself. Yet, quantitative summarization to link image features to properties of interest has been rare. Here we address this issue by employing state-of-the-art technics in scalar field topology for the summarization of X-ray CT images of an example biphasic system. By varying processing-parameters we create different microstructures, evolve them through accelerated thermal aging, CT-image them pre- and post-aged, and demonstrate the ability of our image summarization method to systematically track process- and age-related changes, which can often be very subtle. A novel aspect of the algorithm involves recognition over multiple resolution levels, which provides deeper insight into the pattern relationship between grain-like features and their neighbors. The method is general, adaptable to diverse image reconstruction methods and materials systems, and particularly useful in applications where practical constraints on the sample-size limits the reliable use of more complex models, e.g., convolutional neural networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project II

The Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin-up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries, with increased basal lubrication and warmer ocean conditions affecting mainly outlet glaciers, while the impacts of atmospheric forcings affect the whole ice sheet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Demonstration of the Coating Analysis Capabilities in BISON

In order to improve the accident tolerance of light water reactor (LWR) fuel, coated cladding materials have been proposed which exhibit much slower oxidation kinetics in high-temperature steam than Zr-alloys. This behavior should decrease the energy release due to oxidation and allow the cladding to remain integral longer in the presence of high-temperature steam, making accident mitigation more likely. In order to determine how these coating materials will adjust the behavior of the Zr-alloy cladding during normal reactor operation, simulations have been performed using the Bison fuel performance code. This analysis focused on modeling and comparing the integral thermo-mechanical performance of coated and uncoated zircaloy cladding with uranium dioxide fuel under normal operating conditions. This analysis demonstrates the ability to model a discrete meshed coating bonded to the cladding exterior and provides a comparison with an uncoated fuel rod. A generic range of coating material properties are implemented given the differences and unknowns regarding the proprietary coating properties used by the vendors. A main-effects analysis was performed to identify trends and sensitivities in how coating material properties affect key fuel performance metrics. Lastly, because residual stresses are expected to form in the coating, arising from the high temperature coating application process and application techniques, an additional analysis was performed to identify the impact of these stresses on the cladding behavior. Future analysis efforts will target more comprehensive documentation of this main effects analysis by sampling the results at the beginning and middle-of-life in order to capture important behavior before and during the onset of gap closure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1996

Interdisciplinary Investigations in Support of Project DI-MOD

Various concepts from time series analysis are used as the basis for the development of algorithms to assist in the analysis and interpretation of remote sensed imagery. An approach to trend detection that is based upon the fractal analysis of power spectrum estimates is presented. Additionally, research was conducted toward the development of a software architecture to support processing tasks associated with databases housing a variety of data. An algorithmic approach which provides for the automation of the state monitoring process is presented.

Starks, Scott A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Implementation of Dynamic Extensible Adaptive Locally Exchangeable Measures (IDEALEM) v 0.1

Handling large streaming data is essential for various applications such as network traffic analysis, social networks, energy cost trends, and environment modeling. However, it is in general intractable to store, compute, search, and retrieve large streaming data. This software addresses a fundamental issue, which is to reduce the size of large streaming data and still obtain accurate statistical analysis. As an example, when a high-speed network such as 100 Gbps network is monitored, the collected measurement data rapidly grows so that polynomial time algorithms (e.g., Gaussian processes) become intractable. One possible solution to reduce the storage of vast amounts of measured data is to store a random sample, such as one out of 1000 network packets. However, such static sampling methods (linear sampling) have drawbacks: (1) it is not scalable for high-rate streaming data, and (2) there is no guarantee of reflecting the underlying distribution. In this software, we implemented a dynamic sampling algorithm, based on the recent technology from the relational dynamic bayesian online locally exchangeable measures, that reduces the storage of data records in a large scale, and still provides accurate analysis of large streaming data. The software can be used for both online and offline data records.

Sim, Alex↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2018

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES) data from 1998 through 2018 and (2) maintenance unavailability (UA) performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2018. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: sub-component, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. A statistically significant increasing trend was identified in the frequency of FTLR demands for emergency power system (EPS) and high pressure core spray (HPCS) EDGs and a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the frequency of run > 1H hours for EPS and HPCS EDGs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2001

Fatigue and Damage Tolerance Analysis of a Hybrid Composite Tapered Flexbeam

The behavior of nonlinear tapered composite flexbeams under combined axial tension and cyclic bending loading was studied using coupon test specimens and finite element (FE) analyses. The flexbeams used a hybrid material system of graphite/epoxy and glass/epoxy and had internal dropped plies, dropped in an overlapping stepwise pattern. Two material configurations, differing only in the use of glass or graphite plies in the continuous plies near the midplane, were studied. Test specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter tail-rotor flexbeam and were tested in a hydraulic load frame under combined constant axialtension load and transverse cyclic bending loads. The first determination damage observed in the specimens occurred at the area around the tip of the outermost ply-drop group in the tapered region of the flexbeam, near the thick end. Delaminations grew slowly and stably, toward the thick end of the flexbeam, at the interfaces above and below the dropped-ply region. A 2D finite element model of the flexbeam was developed. The model was analyzed using a geometrically non-linear analysis with both the ANSYS and ABAQUS FE codes. The global responses of each analysis agreed well with the test results. The ANSYS model was used to calculate strain energy release rates (G) for delaminations initiating at two different ply-ending locations. The results showed that delaminations were more inclined to grow at the locations where they were observed in the test specimens. Both ANSYS and ABAQUS were used to calculate G values associated with delamination initiating at the observed location but growing in different interfaces, either above or below the ply-ending group toward the thick end, or toward the thin end from the tip of the resin pocket. The different analysis codes generated the same trends and comparable peak values, within 5-11 % for each delamination path. Both codes showed that delamination toward the thick region was largely mode II, and toward the thin region was predominantly mode I. The calculated peak G-values from either analysis predict delamination is most likely to occur along the same interface where it was observed in the test specimens. Calculated peak G values were used with material characterization data to calculate a curve relating the fatigue life of the specimens, N, to the applied transverse load, V, for a given constant axial load.

Murri, Gretchen B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Scientific Impact of MODIS C5 Calibration Degradation and C6+ Improvements

The Collection 6 (C6) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land and atmosphere data sets are scheduled for release in 2014. C6 contains significant revisions of the calibration approach to account for sensor aging. This analysis documents the presence of systematic temporal trends in the visible and near-infrared (500 m) bands of the Collection 5 (C5) MODIS Terra and, to lesser extent, in MODIS Aqua geophysical data sets. Sensor degradation is largest in the blue band (B3) of the MODIS sensor on Terra and decreases with wavelength. Calibration degradation causes negative global trends in multiple MODIS C5 products including the dark target algorithm's aerosol optical depth over land and Ångstrom exponent over the ocean, global liquid water and ice cloud optical thickness, as well as surface reflectance and vegetation indices, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). As the C5 production will be maintained for another year in parallel with C6, one objective of this paper is to raise awareness of the calibration-related trends for the broad MODIS user community. The new C6 calibration approach removes major calibrations trends in the Level 1B (L1B) data. This paper also introduces an enhanced C6C calibration of the MODIS data set which includes an additional polarization correction (PC) to compensate for the increased polarization sensitivity of MODIS Terra since about 2007, as well as detrending and Terra- Aqua cross-calibration over quasi-stable desert calibration sites. The PC algorithm, developed by the MODIS ocean biology processing group (OBPG), removes residual scan angle, mirror side and seasonal biases from aerosol and surface reflectance (SR) records along with spectral distortions of SR. Using the multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) algorithm over deserts, we have also developed a detrending and cross-calibration method which removes residual decadal trends on the order of several tenths of 1% of the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance in the visible and near-infrared MODIS bands B1-B4, and provides a good consistency between the two MODIS sensors. MAIAC analysis over the southern USA shows that the C6C approach removed an additional negative decadal trend of Terra (Delta)NDVI approx.0.01 as compared to Aqua data. This change is particularly important for analysis of vegetation dynamics and trends in the tropics, e.g., Amazon rainforest, where the morning orbit of Terra provides considerably more cloud-free observations compared to the afternoon Aqua measurements.

Terra and Aqua↗
DOE OSTI2020

An international laboratory comparison of dissolved organic matter composition by high resolution mass spectrometry: Are we getting the same answer?

Since the first detailed compositional analysis of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in 1995, high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) has become a vital tool for DOM characterization. While the upward trend in HRMS for molecular level analysis of DOM continues, so do the challenges of data comparison and interpretation between laboratories operating instruments of differing performance and user operating conditions. It is therefore essential that the community establishes whether data and trends can be compared robustly between research groups. To this end, 4 identically prepared DOM samples were each studied by 16 laboratories, representing 17 commercially-purchased instruments located across 8 countries, using positive- and negative-mode electrospray ionization (ESI) HRMS analysis. Despite the widely reported sensitivity of ESI experiments to sample matrix, preparation, ion source operation and instrument tuning parameters, the instruments used in this study showed relatively low variability between results for the same samples, particularly H/C and AI metrics. The variation in O/C and m/z metrics was relatively higher, although z-score graphs and %BCD demonstrated that the relative difference in general chemical composition between samples was the same for each instrument included in the study. As such, these metrics can be used for fingerprinting of DOM samples and as a benchmark for quality control in participating laboratories, with future strides in environmental science building upon these efforts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1983

Thermal analysis considerations for large space structures

A number of issues and needs relative to thermal analysis of large space structures and space stations are discussed. Some indications of trends in the Langley thermal-structural analysis research program consistent with the issues and needs are also presented. The main heat transfer mechanism in space is radiation; consequently, there is a need for a strong thrust on improved radiation analysis capability. Also the important interactions among temperatures, deformations, and controls need to be accounted for. Finite element analysis capability seems to be lagging behind lumped-parameter capability or heat pipe analysis. The Langley plan will include improving radiation analysis capability, evaluating the errors involved in certain approximate analysis and modeling techniques for large space trusses, and continuing the development of integrated thermal-structural finite elements with an emphasis on radiation heat transfer. Work will be initiated to develop finite element analysis techniques for heat pipes. Finally, optimization research activities will be oriented toward methods to design flexible orbiting structures to account for thermal and thermal deformation requirements.

Adelman, H. M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characteristics and trends of Atlantic tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from African easterly waves

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to develop from African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagate across North Africa and out over the Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between AEWs and TCs has been the subject of numerous previous studies. There are, however, many Atlantic TCs that do not have AEW origins. In this study, we provide a novel analysis of the characteristics and trends of Atlantic TCs both with and without AEW origins using 43 years of observational and reanalysis data. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with and without AEW origins from the observational record between 1980 and 2022, and ran objective tracking algorithms on reanalysis data to identify the AEWs and TCs during this time period. We found statistically significant differences in the characteristics and environments of TCs with and without AEW origins. TCs with AEW origins are stronger and costlier, experience more favorable environmental conditions, and are more likely to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean when compared to TCs without AEW origins. Additionally, the 43‐year increasing trend in Atlantic TC activity is primarily driven by an increase in TCs with AEW origins that is associated with increasing AEW frequency and strength, with anthropogenic aerosols potentially driving this trend. In contrast, we found no trend in TCs without AEW origins.

Bercos‐Hickey, Emily↗
NASA NTRS1969

Analysis of a Multiprocessor Guidance Computer

The design of the next generation of spaceborne digital computers is described. It analyzes a possible multiprocessor computer configuration. For the analysis, a set of representative space computing tasks was abstracted from the Lunar Module Guidance Computer programs as executed during the lunar landing, from the Apollo program. This computer performs at this time about 24 concurrent functions, with iteration rates from 10 times per second to once every two seconds. These jobs were tabulated in a machine-independent form, and statistics of the overall job set were obtained. It was concluded, based on a comparison of simulation and Markov results, that the Markov process analysis is accurate in predicting overall trends and in configuration comparisons, but does not provide useful detailed information in specific situations. Using both types of analysis, it was determined that the job scheduling function is a critical one for efficiency of the multiprocessor. It is recommended that research into the area of automatic job scheduling be performed.

Maltach, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Theoretical and Experimental Evaluation of the Bond Strength Under Peeling Loads

Reliable applications of adhesively bonded joints require understanding of the stress distribution along the bond-line and the stresses that are responsible for the joint failure. To properly evaluate factors affecting peel strength, effects of defects such as voids on the stress distribution in the overlap region must be understood. In this work, the peel stress distribution in a single lap joint is derived using a strength of materials approach. The bonded joint is modeled as Euler-Bernoulli beams, bonded together with an adhesive. which is modeled as an elastic foundation which can resist both peel and shear stresses. It is found that for certain adhesive and adherend geometries and properties, a central void with the size up to 50 percent of the overlap length has negligible effect on the peak peel and shear stresses. To verify the solutions obtained from the model, the problem is solved again by using the finite element method and by treating the adherends and the adhesive as elastic materials. It is found that the model used in the analysis not only predicts the correct trend for the peel stress distribution but also gives rather surprisingly close results to that of the finite element analysis. It is also found that both shear and peel stresses can be responsible for the joint performance and when a void is introduced, both of these stresses can contribute to the joint failure as the void size increases. Acoustic emission (AE) activities of aluminum-adhesive-aluminum specimens with different void sizes were monitored. The AE ringdown counts and energy were very sensitive and decreased significantly with the void size. It was observed that the AE events were shifting towards the edge of the overlap where the maximum peeling and shearing stresses were occurring as the void size increased.

Nayeb-Hashemi, Hamid↗
DOE OSTI2015

Climate change and the future of natural disturbances in the central hardwood region

The spatial patterns and ecological processes of the southeastern upland hardwood forests have evolved to reflect past climatic conditions and natural disturbance regimes. Changes in climate can lead to disturbances that exceed their natural range of variation, and the impacts of these changes will depend on the vulnerability or resiliency of these ecosystems. Global Circulation Models generally project annual increases in temperature across the southeastern United States over the coming decades, but changes in precipitation are less consistent. Even more unclear is how climate change might affect future trends in the severity and frequency of natural disturbances, such as severe storms, fires, droughts, floods, and insect outbreaks. Here, we use a time-series satellite data record to map the spatial pattern and severity of broad classes of natural disturbances the southeast region. The data derived from this map allow analysis of regional-scale trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the region over the last three decades. Throughout the region, between 5% and 25% of forest land is affected by some sort of disturbance each year since 1985. The time series reveals periodic droughts that themselves are widespread and of low severity but are associated with more localized, high-severity disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. The map also reveals extensive anthropogenic disturbance across the region in the form of forest conversion related to resource extraction and urban and residential development. We discuss how changes in climate and disturbance regimes might affect southeastern forests in the future via altering the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Changes in climate are highly likely to expose southeastern forests to more frequent and severe disturbances, but ultimately how vulnerable or resilient southeastern forests are to these changes will depend on their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to these novel conditions.

Dale, Virginia H↗