Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “tracking errors”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39

New determination of the N-{Delta}(1232) axial form factors from weak pion production and coherent pion production off nuclei at T2K and MiniBooNE energies revisited

We re-evaluate our model predictions in Phys. Rev. D 79, 013002 (2009) for different observables in neutrino induced coherent pion production. This comes as a result of the new improved fit to old bubble chamber data of the dominant axial C{sub 5}{sup A} nucleon-to-Delta form factor. We find an increase of 20%{approx}30% in the values for the total cross sections. Uncertainties induced by the errors in the determination of C{sub 5}{sup A} are computed. Our new results turn out to be compatible within about 1{sigma} with the former ones. We also stress the existing tension between the recent experimental determination of the {sigma}(CCcoh{pi}{sup +})/{sigma}(NCcoh{pi}{sup 0}) ratio by the SciBooNE Collaboration and the theoretical predictions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SU-F-E-09: Respiratory Signal Prediction Based On Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network Using Adjustable Training Samples

Purpose: Dynamic tracking of moving organs, such as lung and liver tumors, under radiation therapy requires prediction of organ motions prior to delivery. The shift of moving organ may change a lot due to huge transform of respiration at different periods. This study aims to reduce the influence of that changes using adjustable training signals and multi-layer perceptron neural network (ASMLP). Methods: Respiratory signals obtained using a Real-time Position Management(RPM) device were used for this study. The ASMLP uses two multi-layer perceptron neural networks(MLPs) to infer respiration position alternately and the training sample will be updated with time. Firstly, a Savitzky-Golay finite impulse response smoothing filter was established to smooth the respiratory signal. Secondly, two same MLPs were developed to estimate respiratory position from its previous positions separately. Weights and thresholds were updated to minimize network errors according to Leverberg-Marquart optimization algorithm through backward propagation method. Finally, MLP 1 was used to predict 120∼150s respiration position using 0∼120s training signals. At the same time, MLP 2 was trained using 30∼150s training signals. Then MLP is used to predict 150∼180s training signals according to 30∼150s training signals. The respiration position is predicted as this way until it was finished. Results: In this experiment, the two methods were used to predict 2.5 minute respiratory signals. For predicting 1s ahead of response time, correlation coefficient was improved from 0.8250(MLP method) to 0.8856(ASMLP method). Besides, a 30% improvement of mean absolute error between MLP(0.1798 on average) and ASMLP(0.1267 on average) was achieved. For predicting 2s ahead of response time, correlation coefficient was improved from 0.61415 to 0.7098.Mean absolute error of MLP method(0.3111 on average) was reduced by 35% using ASMLP method(0.2020 on average). Conclusion: The preliminary results demonstrate that the ASMLP respiratory prediction method is more accurate than MLP method and can improve the respiration forecast accuracy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

AN OPTICAL SURVEY FOR MILLIMETER-SIZED INTERSTELLAR METEOROIDS

We report high-resolution multi-station observations of meteors by the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory recorded from 2009 June to 2010 August. Our survey has a limiting detection magnitude of +5 mag in R band, equivalent to a limiting meteoroid mass of {approx}2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7} kg. The high metric trajectory accuracy (of the order of 30 m perpendicular to the solution and 200 m along track) allows us to determine velocities with average uncertainty of <1.5% in speed and {approx}0.{sup 0}4 in the radiant direction. A total of 1739 meteors had measured orbits. The data have been searched for meteors in hyperbolic orbits, which are potentially of interstellar origin. We found 22 potential hyperbolic meteors among our sample, with only two of them having a speed at least 3{sigma} above the hyperbolic limit. For our one-year survey we find no clear evidence of interstellar meteoroids at millimeter sizes in a weighted time-area product of {approx}10{sup 4} km{sup 2} hr. Backward integrations performed for these 22 potentially hyperbolic meteors to check for close encounters with planets show no considerable changes in their orbits. Detailed examination leads us to conclude that our few identified events are most likely the result of measurement error. We find an upper limit of f{sub ISP} < 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -4} km{sup -2} hr{sup -1} for the flux of interstellar meteoroids at Earth with a limiting mass of m > 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7} kg.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Realization of a high luminosity muon beam at the Jefferson Lab

The proton is the major component of the visible matter of our universe, so being able to determine its fundamental properties, such as its charge radius, is of vital importance. In recent years, several experiments have been performed for the accurate measurement of the proton radius with different experimental techniques. The main and most common are based on two different techniques: ep scattering and Lamb shift spectroscopy of regular hydrogen atoms. The latter can also be performed on muonic hydrogen atoms with a significant improvement in accuracy. Recent measurements that use this method have highlighted a discrepancy between the results obtained with the diffusion of electrons and those obtained with the spectroscopic technique leading to the so-called ?proton radius puzzle?. The explanation of why this difference between the measured values exists is still a matter of discussion. The last attempt to address the puzzle was the PRad Experiment. It was performed with a unique experimental setup that gave the scientists an excellent control on the systematic errors that are usually present in electron-proton scattering experiments. This has significantly increased the precision of the measurement, bringing it in the same area as the spectroscopic ones done on muonic hydrogen atoms, which are considered the most precise. However, to solve the puzzle once and for all, even more precise electron scattering measurements are needed. Alternatively, new methods can be used, such as eg. muon-proton scattering at low transferred momenta in order to lower the systematic errors that comes with the measurement. This thesis tries to address this problem by studying the set up of an intense muon beam at the Jefferson Laboratory (JLab) that can be used to carry out a high-precision m ? p scattering experiment. Using Montecarlo simulations I studied the muon production resulting from the interaction of the primary electron beam with the beam-dump at JLab Hall-A. The simulations were performed using the FLUKA package via the FLAIR graphical interface. In this study, I modified an existing geometry (built for the ?Beam Dump eXperiment?) and performed several studies in order to optimize the muon beam parameters. In order to estimate the beam intensity, I studied the muon generation and transportation through the concrete bunker surrounding the Hall-A beam-dump. Detailed studies on muon attenuation and dispersion at different depth allowed me to track the beam profile in space and momentum as a function of the distance from the beam-dump. Last, but not least, I studied a possible tagging system for the muon beam. The tagging system will allow us to know with good precision (O(1=1000)) the energy of each muon of the beam. Based on the results obtained, I created an event generator that incorporates the detailed description of the muon beam (energy, position, emittance) useful to define and optimize the experimental setup for a future measurement of the proton radius at the JLab.

Fulci, Antonino↗

Soil Moisture Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using Satellite and Climate Model Data over Southwestern China

In this paper, an experimental soil moisture drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting framework based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) over southwestern China (SW) is presented. Satellite precipitation data are used to force VIC for a near-real-time estimate of land surface hydrologic conditions. Initialized with satellite-aided monitoring (MONIT), the climate model (CFSv2)-based forecast (MONIT+CFSv2) and ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP)-based forecast (MONIT+ESP) are both performed. One dry season drought and one wet season drought are employed to test the ability of this framework in terms of real-time tracking and predicting the evolution of soil moisture (SM) drought, respectively. The results show that the skillful CFSv2 climate forecasts (CFs) are only found at the first month. The satellite-aided monitoring is able to provide a reasonable estimate of forecast initial conditions (ICs) in real-time mode. In the presented cases, MONIT+CFSv2 forecast exhibits comparable performance against the observation-based estimates for the first month, whereas the predictive skill largely drops beyond 1 month. Compared to MONIT+ESP, MONIT+CFSv2 ensembles give more skillful SM drought forecast during the dry season, as indicated by a smaller ensemble range, while the added value of MONIT+CFSv2 is marginal during the wet season. Furthermore, a quantitative attribution analysis of SM forecast uncertainty demonstrates that SM forecast skill is mostly controlled by ICs at the first month and that uncertainties in CFs have the largest contribution to SM forecast errors at longer lead times. This study highlights a value of this framework in generating near-real-time ICs and providing a reliable SM drought prediction with 1 month ahead, which may greatly benefit drought diagnosis, assessment, and early warning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring the properties of f - mode oscillations of a protoneutron star by third-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Core-collapse supernovae are among the astrophysical sources of gravitational waves that could be detected by third-generation gravitational-wave detectors. Here, we analyze the gravitational-wave strain signals from two- and three-dimensional simulations of core-collapse supernovae generated using the code FORNAX. A subset of the two-dimensional simulations has non-zero core rotation at the core bounce. A dominant source of time changing quadrupole moment is the l = 2 fundamental mode (f- mode) oscillation of the proto-neutron star. From the time-frequency spectrogram of the gravitational-wave strain we see that, starting ~ 400 ms after the core bounce, most of the power lies within a narrow track that represents the frequency evolution of the f-mode oscillations. The f-mode frequencies obtained from linear perturbation analysis of the angle averaged profile of the protoneutron star corroborate what we observe in the spectrograms of the gravitational wave signal. We explore the measurability of the f-mode frequency evolution of protoneutron star for a supernova signal observed in the third-generation gravitational-wave detectors. Measurement of the frequency evolution can reveal information about the masses, radii, and densities of the proto-neutron stars. We find that if the third generation detectors observe a supernova within 10 kpc, we can measure these frequencies to within ~90% accuracy. Here, we can also measure the energy emitted in the fundamental f-mode using the spectrogram data of the strain signal. We find that the energy in the f-mode can be measured to within 20% error for signals observed by Cosmic Explorer using simulations with successful explosion, assuming source distances within 10 kpc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Extended State Observer-Based Robust Model Predictive Velocity Control for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor

This article proposes an extended state observer based robust model predictive velocity control to decrease system prediction error under parameter uncertainties for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). We develop a new PMSM model that consists of velocity and acceleration to lump the system information and an external disturbance into a disturbance. The extended state observer (ESO) is designed to estimate the velocity, acceleration, and disturbance. By estimating the state variables and disturbance using the ESO, the model predictive control (MPC) finds the optimal control input by predicting future system behavior. Additionally, the direct current controller is designed so that the direct current converges to zero. Because the proposed method is not designed based on the cascade structure from the viewpoint of velocity control, the optimization control for the velocity and currents can be defined. Thus, the proposed method is robust against external disturbances and parameter uncertainties owing to feedback linearization, state feedback, and ESO-based MPC using the acceleration PMSM model. The proposed control algorithm was experimentally verified and it showed improved velocity tracking performance compared with ESO-based MPC using the conventional PMSM model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluations of an adaptive planning technique incorporating dose feedback in image-guided radiotherapy of prostate cancer

Purpose: Online image guidance (IG) has been used to effectively correct the setup error and inter-fraction rigid organ motion for prostate cancer. However, planning margins are still necessary to account for uncertainties such as deformation and intra-fraction motion. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of an adaptive planning technique incorporating offline dose feedback to manage inter-fraction motion and residuals from online correction. Methods: Repeated helical CT scans from 28 patients were included in the study. The contours of prostate and organs-at-risk (OARs) were delineated on each CT, and online IG was simulated by matching center-of-mass of prostate between treatment CTs and planning CT. A seven beam intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plan was designed for each patient on planning CT for a total of 15 fractions. Dose distribution at each fraction was evaluated based on actual contours of the target and OARs from that fraction. Cumulative dose up to each fraction was calculated by tracking each voxel based on a deformable registration algorithm. The cumulative dose was compared with the dose from initial plan. If the deviation exceeded the pre-defined threshold, such as 2% of the D{sub 99} to the prostate, an adaptive planning technique called dose compensation was invoked, in which the cumulative dose distribution was fed back to the treatment planning system and the dose deficit was made up through boost radiation in future treatment fractions. The dose compensation was achieved by IMRT inverse planning. Two weekly compensation delivery strategies were simulated: one intended to deliver the boost dose in all future fractions (schedule A) and the other in the following week only (schedule B). The D{sub 99} to prostate and generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) to rectal wall and bladder were computed and compared with those without the dose compensation. Results: If only 2% underdose is allowed at the end of the treatment course, then 11 patients fail. If the same criteria is assessed at the end of each week (every five fractions), then 14 patients fail, with three patients failing the 1st or 2nd week but passing at the end. The average dose deficit from these 14 patients was 4.4%. They improved to 2% after the weekly compensation. Out of these 14 patients who needed dose compensation, ten passed the dose criterion after weekly dose compensation, three patients failed marginally, and one patient still failed the criterion significantly (10% deficit), representing 3.6% of the patient population. A more aggressive compensation frequency (every three fractions) could successfully reduce the dose deficit to the acceptable level for this patient. The average number of required dose compensation re-planning per patient was 0.82 (0.79) per patient for schedule A (B) delivery strategy. The doses to OARs were not significantly different from the online IG only plans without dose compensation. Conclusions: We have demonstrated the effectiveness of offline dose compensation technique in image-guided radiotherapy for prostate cancer. It can effectively account for residual uncertainties which cannot be corrected through online IG. Dose compensation allows further margin reduction and critical organs sparing.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Correlation and prediction uncertainties in the CyberKnife Synchrony respiratory tracking system

Purpose: The CyberKnife uses an online prediction model to improve radiation delivery when treating lung tumors. This study evaluates the prediction model used by the CyberKnife radiation therapy system in terms of treatment margins about the gross tumor volume (GTV). Methods: From the data log files produced by the CyberKnife synchrony model, the uncertainty in radiation delivery can be calculated. Modeler points indicate the tracked position of the tumor and Predictor points predict the position about 115 ms in the future. The discrepancy between Predictor points and their corresponding Modeler points was analyzed for 100 treatment model data sets from 23 de-identified lung patients. The treatment margins were determined in each anatomic direction to cover an arbitrary volume of the GTV, derived from the Modeler points, when the radiation is targeted at the Predictor points. Each treatment model had about 30 min of motion data, of which about 10 min constituted treatment time; only these 10 min were used in the analysis. The frequencies of margin sizes were analyzed and truncated Gaussian normal functions were fit to each direction's distribution. The standard deviation of each Gaussian distribution was then used to describe the necessary margin expansions in each signed dimension in order to achieve the desired coverage. In this study, 95% modeler point coverage was compared to 99% modeler coverage. Two other error sources were investigated: the correlation error and the targeting error. These were added to the prediction error to give an aggregate error for the CyberKnife during treatment of lung tumors. Results: Considering the magnitude of 2{sigma} from the mean of the Gaussian in each signed dimension, the margin expansions needed for 95% modeler point coverage were 1.2 mm in the lateral (LAT) direction and 1.7 mm in the anterior-posterior (AP) direction. For the superior-inferior (SI) direction, the fit was poor; but empirically, the expansions were 3.5 mm. For 99% modeler point coverage, the AP margin was 3.6 mm and the lateral margin was 2.9 mm. The SI margins for 99% modeler point coverage were highly variable. The aggregate error at 95% was 6.9 mm in the SI direction, 4.6 mm in the AP direction, and 3.5 in the lateral direction. Conclusions: The Predictor points follow the Modeler points closely. Margins were found in each clinical direction that would provide 95% modeler point coverage for 95% of the models reviewed in this study. Similar margins were found in two clinical directions for 99% modeler point coverage in 95% of models. These results can offer guidance in the selection of CTV margins for treatment with the CyberKnife.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Investigations of Beam Dynamics Issues at Current and Future Hadron Accelerators (Final Report)

There is a synergy between the fields of Beam Dynamics (BD) in modern particle accelerators and Applied Mathematics (AMa). We have formulated significant problems in BD and have developed and applied tools within the contexts of dynamical systems, topological methods, numerical analysis and scientific computing, probability and stochastic processes, and mathematical statistics. We summarize the three main areas of our AMa work since 2011. First, we continued our study of Vlasov-Maxwell systems. Previously, we developed a state of the art algorithm and code (VM3@A) to calculate coherent synchrotron radiation in single pass systems. In this cycle we carefully analyzed the major expense, namely the integral-over-history (IOH), and developed two approaches to speed up integration. The first strategy uses a representation of the Bessel function J0 in terms of exponentials. The second relies on “local sequences” developed recently for radiation boundary conditions, which are used to reduce computational domains. Although motivated by practicality, both strategies involve interesting and rather deep analysis and approximation theory. As an alternative to VM3@A, we are integrating Maxwell’s equations by a time-stepping method, bypass- ing the IOH, using a Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method. DG is a generalization of Finite Element and Finite Volume methods. It is spectrally convergent, unlike the commonly used Finite Difference methods, and can handle complicated vacuum chamber geometries. We have applied this in several contexts and have obtained very nice results including an explanation of an experiment at the Canadian Light Source, where the geometry is quite complex. Second, we continued our study of spin dynamics in storage rings. There is much current and proposed activity where spin polarized beams are being used in testing the Standard Model and its modifications. Our work has focused on invariant spin fields (ISFs) and amplitude dependent spin tunes (ADSTs), which are essential for estimating beam polarization. Several algorithms have been developed since the 1980s for computing the ISF, among them the Heinemann- Hoffstaetter method of stroboscopic averaging (SA) which is implemented in the code SPRINT. SA, which computes the ISF by using spin tracking data, can find the ISF to computer precision if it exists and thus can give evidence for existence of the ISF. Central to our work is resolving the ISF conjecture, which says that, off orbital resonance, an ISF exists. Thus Heinemann developed, in his 2010 PhD thesis, a new framework which unifies and generalizes the notions of ISF and ADST by using bundle theory. This lead to a long paper which was a major collaborative effort during the recent cycle. In a nutshell, our bundle approach elegantly unifies the dynamics of spin-1/2 and spin-1 particles, e.g., protons and deuterons. In fact it is well known that these two kinds of dynamics are driven by the same spin transfer matrix and in our approach one sees the deeper reason for this: the spin transfer matrix carries the natural dynamics of a principal bundle whereas the difference between the spin-1/2 and spin-1 dynamics lies in their different geometrical situation, i.e., different underlying associated bundles. Thus one arrives at new results for polarized beams, among them the Invariant Reduction Theorem (IRT) and the Cross Section Theorem (CST). The IRT gives a necessary and sufficient condition for the ISF to exist. The SA technique revealed, 20 years ago, that each ISF can be viewed as a complex agglomerate of spin tracking data. The bundle approach goes one step further by using the IRT and the CST to glue spin tracking data into agglomerates which are candidates for ISFs. We gain insight because the “good” agglomerates, in the presence of an ISF, are very different from the “bad” ones. Finally we mention that the bundle approach has analogies to the approach used in geometrical Yang-Mills theory. Third, we studied X-Ray Free Electron Lasers (FELs), which are electron accelerators producing coherent undulator radiation over a wide range of frequencies from microwaves to x-rays. The photon beams produced in FEL undulators are used to study material samples in biology, material science etc. We developed a mathematical analysis, based on the 6D Lorentz system, of energetic electrons moving through a planar undulator excited by a Maxwell traveling wave field of wavelength λ. Our Method of Averaging perturbation analysis yields non-resonant and near-to-resonant normal form approximations as a function of λ, which we present in two averaging theorems. We prove the theorems in detail, error bounds and giving a tutorial on mathematically rigorous perturbation theory in a context where proofs are easily understood. To our knowledge the planar problem has not been analyzed with the generality here nor has the standard FEL pendulum system, which appears on resonance, been derived with error bounds. In addition to the domains of validity of the normal forms we obtain new insights that require further study, including a more general low gain theory. With a firm foundation in the non-collective case above we are studying the 3D collective case from start up from noise to high gain and saturation. We have formulated the noise start up as a problem of going from the microscopic Klimontovich-Maxwell to the macroscopic Vlasov-Maxwell with a Vlasov correction term. In the 1D setting, we seek an alternative to the phenomenological Vlasov approach which models shot noise by a perturbation on an initial “smooth” density. The 1D wave equation with a Klimontovich source is often the starting point for the 1D FEL high gain theory. We have a new representation of solutions which may lead to new insights.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Impact of Time Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis

Online synthesis of the power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins, and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light water reactors (LWRs), power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report aims to study the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a LWR. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative pressurized water reactor low-enriched uranium (LEU) core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used, as well, to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative (PBI) method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly under- or over-approximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumption leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum. The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in the low-enriched uranium fuel cycle considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short- and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates is largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields (> 250 m). Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soybeans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12 state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015-2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forests model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R 2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R 2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, controlling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in rainfall delayed planting by ~ 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Explainable Machine-Learning Model for Compensatory Reserve Measurement: Methods for Feature Selection and the Effects of Subject Variability

Tracking vital signs accurately is critical for triaging a patient and ensuring timely therapeutic intervention. The patient’s status is often clouded by compensatory mechanisms that can mask injury severity. The compensatory reserve measurement (CRM) is a triaging tool derived from an arterial waveform that has been shown to allow for earlier detection of hemorrhagic shock. However, the deep-learning artificial neural networks developed for its estimation do not explain how specific arterial waveform elements lead to predicting CRM due to the large number of parameters needed to tune these models. Alternatively, we investigate how classical machine-learning models driven by specific features extracted from the arterial waveform can be used to estimate CRM. More than 50 features were extracted from human arterial blood pressure data sets collected during simulated hypovolemic shock resulting from exposure to progressive levels of lower body negative pressure. A bagged decision tree design using the ten most significant features was selected as optimal for CRM estimation. This resulted in an average root mean squared error in all test data of 0.171, similar to the error for a deep-learning CRM algorithm at 0.159. By separating the dataset into sub-groups based on the severity of simulated hypovolemic shock withstood, large subject variability was observed, and the key features identified for these sub-groups differed. This methodology could allow for the identification of unique features and machine-learning models to differentiate individuals with good compensatory mechanisms against hypovolemia from those that might be poor compensators, leading to improved triage of trauma patients and ultimately enhancing military and emergency medicine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Characterizing leaf-scale fluorescence with spectral invariants

Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is increasingly recognized as a non-destructive probe for tracking terrestrial photosynthesis. Emerging developments in spectral invariants theory provide an innovative and efficient approach for representing SIF radiative transfer processes at the canopy scale. However, modeling leaf-scale fluorescence based on the spectral invariants properties (SIP) remains underexplored. In this study, the spectral invariants theory is employed for the first time to model the leaf-scale total, backward and forward fluorescence (leaf-SIP SIF). The leaf-SIP SIF model separates the leaf-scale radiative transfer process into two distinct components: the wavelength-dependent one associated with leaf biochemical properties, and the wavelength-independent component linked to leaf structural characteristics. The leaf structure-related effects are characterized by two spectrally invariant parameters: the photon recollision probability (p) and the scattering asymmetry parameter (q), which are parameterized using the directly measurable leaf dry matter. Evaluation against field measurements shows that the proposed leaf-SIP SIF model has a good performance, with coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.89, 0.89, 0.90 and root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 1.28, 0.69, 0.74 Wm -2 µm -1 sr -1 , respectively for the total, backward, and forward fluorescence (660–800 nm). The leaf-SIP SIF model with a more concise formulation demonstrates comparable performance with the widely used Fluspect model. Further, the leaf-SIP SIF model provides a simple and efficient approach for simulating leaf-scale fluorescence, with the potential to be integrated into a unified SIP-based model framework for simulating the radiative transfer processes across the soil-leaf-canopy-atmosphere continuum.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

MaLTESE: Large-Scale Simulation-Driven Machine Learning for Transient Driving Cycles

Optimal engine operation during a transient driving cycle is the key to achieving greater fuel economy, engine efficiency, and reduced emissions. In order to achieve continuously optimal engine operation, engine calibration methods use a combination of static correlations obtained from dynamometer tests for steady-state operating points and road and/or track performance data. As the parameter space of control variables, design variable constraints, and objective functions increases, the cost and duration for optimal calibration become prohibitively large. In order to reduce the number of dynamometer tests required for calibrating modern engines, a large-scale simulation-driven machine learning approach is presented in this work. A parallel, fast, robust, physics-based reduced-order engine simulator is used to obtain performance and emission characteristics of engines over a wide range of control parameters under various transient driving conditions (drive cycles). We scale the simulation up to 3,906 nodes of the Theta supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility to generate data required to train a machine learning model. The trained model is then used to predict various engine parameters of interest, and the results are compared with those predicted by the engine simulator. Our results show that a deepneural-network-based surrogate model achieves high accuracy: Pearson product-moment correlation values larger than 0.99 and mean absolute percentage error within 1.07% for various engine parameters such as exhaust temperature, exhaust pressure, nitric oxide, and engine torque. Once trained, the deep-neural-network-based surrogate model is fast for inference: it requires about 16 mu s for predicting the engine performance and emissions for a single design configuration compared with about 0.5 s per configuration with the engine simulator. Moreover, we demonstrate that transfer learning and retraining can be leveraged to incrementally retrain the surrogate model to cope with new configurations that fall outside the training data space.

deep learning↗

On the Need for Comprehensive Validation of Deformable Image Registration, Investigated With a Novel 3-Dimensional Deformable Dosimeter

Purpose: To introduce and evaluate a novel deformable 3-dimensional (3D) dosimetry system (Presage-Def/Optical-CT) and its application toward investigating the accuracy of dose deformation in a commercial deformable image registration (DIR) package. Methods and Materials: Presage-Def is a new dosimetry material consisting of an elastic polyurethane matrix doped with radiochromic leuco dye. Radiologic and mechanical properties were characterized using standard techniques. Dose-tracking feasibility was evaluated by comparing dose distributions between dosimeters irradiated with and without 27% lateral compression. A checkerboard plan of 5-mm square fields enabled precise measurement of true deformation using 3D dosimetry. Predicted deformation was determined from a commercial DIR algorithm. Results: Presage-Def exhibited a linear dose response with sensitivity of 0.0032 ΔOD/(Gy∙cm). Mass density is 1.02 g/cm{sup 3}, and effective atomic number is within 1.5% of water over a broad (0.03-10 MeV) energy range, indicating good water-equivalence. Elastic characteristics were close to that of liver tissue, with Young's modulus of 13.5-887 kPa over a stress range of 0.233-303 kPa, and Poisson's ratio of 0.475 (SE, 0.036). The Presage-Def/Optical-CT system successfully imaged the nondeformed and deformed dose distributions, with isotropic resolution of 1 mm. Comparison with the predicted deformed 3D dose distribution identified inaccuracies in the commercial DIR algorithm. Although external contours were accurately deformed (submillimeter accuracy), volumetric dose deformation was poor. Checkerboard field positioning and dimension errors of up to 9 and 14 mm, respectively, were identified, and the 3D DIR-deformed dose γ passing rate was only γ{sub 3%/3} {sub mm} = 60.0%. Conclusions: The Presage-Def/Optical-CT system shows strong potential for comprehensive investigation of DIR algorithm accuracy. Substantial errors in a commercial DIR were found in the conditions evaluated. This work highlights the critical importance of careful validation of DIR algorithms before clinical implementation.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Emulation of radiation transport in 3D stochastic media using 1D planar Monte Carlo stochastic media radiation transport algorithms

A subset of stochastic media radiation transport problems involves those in which radiation is incident on a thin slab of stochastic material. Particle tracking in 3D for such problems is expensive, and 1D planar models lack accuracy because they only allow the material to change in one dimension. Therefore, we propose dimensional emulation, which through a slight modification allows existing 1D planar geometry stochastic media radiation transport models to reproduce results from the equivalent 3D models by allowing the material to change in all three dimensions, reproducing the fidelity of the 3D model for the low computational cost of the 1D planar model. In this work, we apply dimensional emulation to three Monte Carlo stochastic media radiation transport models: Chord Length Sampling (CLS), the Local Realization Preserving method (LRP), and a variant of Conditional Point Sampling (CoPS). For a common Markovian benchmark set, the 3D emulation variants of these algorithms are numerically verified to reproduce the results of the 3D variants within statistics while running 1.3 to 2 times faster in the implementation within Sandia National Laboratories open-source research code PlaybookMC. The 3D emulation variants are also shown to yield a 72%–92% reduction in error for the thin slab problems in comparison to the 1D benchmark. As a result, the 3D emulation variant of CLS and CoPS-1 are shown to reproduce 3D CLS results that were used to approximate results for a 3D spherical inclusion geometry benchmark set.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Impact of Time-Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis (Rev.1)

Online synthesis of power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light-water reactors, power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report examines the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a pressurized water reactor (PWR), considering the typical low-enriched uranium (LEU, 3%-5% enrichment) fuel cycle as well as the higher enrichment LEU+ (5%-8% enrichment) fuel cycle. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative PWR LEU core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used as well to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters and the extended nature of the LEU+ fuel cycle in comparison with LEU. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly underapproximated or overapproximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumptions leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum (for LEU). The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in both the LEU and LEU+ fuel cycles considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗