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DOE OSTI2020

Gas Production from Hot Water Circulation through Hydraulic Fractures in Methane Hydrate-Bearing Sediments: THC-Coupled Simulation of Production Mechanisms

Methane hydrates, widely found in permafrost and deep marine sediments, have great potential as a future energy 6 source. Conventional production schemes perform poorly for challenging hydrate reservoirs with low permeability. We propose an 7 efficient production scheme by combining hydraulic fracturing from horizontal wells and hot water circulation through fractures. A 8 fully coupled thermo-hydro-chemical (THC) model is developed to simulate the key physical processes during gas production from 9 a hydrate reservoir representative of typical geological settings in Shenhu, South China Sea. We found that the gas production 10 process has two distinct stages divided by thermal breakthrough: a relatively short prebreakthrough stage and a postbreakthrough 11 stage yielding stable gas production. Heat advection along and near the hydraulic fracture dominates the prebreakthrough stage, 12 whereas conduction-driven thermal recovery in the volume around fractures dominates the postbreakthrough stage. We identified 13 that the steady-state injection temperature has a strong effect on the performance of the proposed scheme while the fluid mass 14 circulation rate has a moderate impact beyond a threshold. The proposed scheme proves to be efficient and robust over a range of 15 reservoir conditions with respect to initial hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability, including their spatial heterogeneities, 16 thereby offering a promising solution for challenging reservoir conditions.

gas hydrate, fracture flow, gas production, numeri↗

DOE OSTI2025

Defect-Engineered High-Entropy Spinel Oxide@Onion-Like Carbon Catalysts for High-Areal-Energy Rechargeable Zinc–Air Batteries

Rechargeable zinc-air batteries (ReZAB) have emerged as the next-generation batteries with several advantages over the conventional lithium-ion battery. In this work, single nanocrystals of inverse-type high-entropy spinel oxides (HESOx, particle size of 10−12 nm) confined in highly curved defective onion-like carbons (HESOx/OLC AT ) as efficient electrocatalysts for oxygen evolution reaction (OER), oxygen reduction reaction (ORR), and ReZAB, have been synthesized. The HESOx materials were thoroughly characterized using several analytical techniques, including X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), Raman, and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR). HESOx/OLC AT catalyst was tested for ReZAB using literature-recommended parameters that would allow for real technological application. These parameters include a current loading of 10 mA cm −2 and a discharge areal energy density of 35 mWh cm geometric −2 , which maps a Li-ion battery pack-level specific energy of 120 Wh kg pack −1 . HESOx/OLC AT electrocatalysts allowed for continuous discharging and charging at a current loading of 10 mA cm −2 with discharge areal energy densities between 37 and 74 mWh cm geometric −2 , thus outperforming the recommended threshold of 35 mWh cm geometric −2 . Considering that most studies (>90%) hardly meet the recommended threshold for technological application of ReZAB, the present work represents one of the top-performing electrocatalysts for ReZAB. The excellent electrocatalytic properties of defect-rich HESOx/OLC AT toward ORR/OER and ReZAB are governed by the strong electronic modulation arising from d-π hybridization, the availability of multiple catalytic sites for intermediates, and weakened d-band centers of the rate-determining intermediates (i.e., *O adsorption for ORR and *OOH formation for OER) compared to the pristine HESOx. This work introduces an effective approach for the design and synthesis of single nanocrystals of high-entropy electrocatalysts for the development of low-cost, robust, and technologically relevant rechargeable zinc−air batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cholesky Decomposition-Based Implementation of Relativistic Two-Component Coupled-Cluster Methods for Medium-Sized Molecules

A Cholesky decomposition (CD)-based implementation of relativistic two-component coupled-cluster (CC) and equation-of-motion CC (EOM-CC) methods using an exact two-component Hamiltonian augmented with atomic-mean-field integrals (the X2CAMF scheme) is reported. Furthermore, the present CD-based implementation of X2CAMF-CC and EOM-CC methods employs atomic-orbital-based algorithms to avoid the construction of two-electron integrals and intermediates involving three and four virtual indices. The CD-based implementation extends the applicability of X2CAMF-CC and EOMCC methods to medium-sized molecules with the correlation of around 1000 spinors. Benchmark calculations for uranium-containing small molecules have been performed to assess the dependence of CC results with respect to the Cholesky threshold. A Cholesky threshold of 10 –4 is shown to maintain chemical accuracy. Example calculations to illustrate the capability of the CD-based relativistic CC methods are reported for the bond dissociation energy of the uranium hexafluoride molecule, UF 6 , with up to quadruple-zeta basis sets and the lowest excitation energy in solvated uranyl ion [UO 2 2+ (H 2 O) 12 ].

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reduced-Cost Four-Component Relativistic Double Ionization Potential Equation-of-Motion Coupled-Cluster Approaches with 4-Hole–2-Particle Excitations and Three-Body Clusters

The double ionization potential (DIP) equation-ofmotion (EOM) coupled-cluster (CC) method with 4-hole−2- particle (4h-2p) excitations on top of the CC with singles, doubles, and triples calculation, abbreviated as DIP-EOMCCSDT(4h-2p), along with its perturbative DIP-EOMCCSD(T)(a)(4h-2p) approximation, are extended to a relativistic four-component (4c) framework. In addition, we introduce and test a new computationally practical DIP-EOMCC approach, which we call DIPEOMCCSD( T)(ã)(4h-2p), that approximates the treatment of 4h- 2p correlations within the DIP-EOMCCSD(T)(a)(4h-2p) method and reduces the $\mathcal{N}$ 8 scaling characterizing DIP-EOMCCSDT(4h- 2p) and DIP-EOMCCSD(T)(a)(4h-2p) to $\mathcal{N}$ 7 with the system size $\mathcal{N}$. Further improvements in computational efficiency are obtained using the frozen natural spinor (FNS) approximation to reduce the numbers of unoccupied spinors entering the correlated steps of the DIP-EOMCC calculations according to a well-defined occupation-number-based threshold. The resulting 4c-FNS-DIPEOMCC approaches are used to compute DIPs for the series of inert gas atoms from argon to radon as well as the vertical DIPs in Cl 2 , Br 2 , HBr, and HI, which have been experimentally examined in the past. We demonstrate that, when using complete basis set extrapolations and FNS truncation threshold of 10 −4.5 , the 4c-FNS-DIP-EOMCCSD(T)(ã)(4h-2p) calculations are capable of predicting DIPs in agreement with experimental data, improving upon their nonrelativistic and spin-free scalar-relativistic counterparts, particularly when examining DIPs characterized by stronger spin−orbit coupling effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Balancing Charge Transfer and Frenkel Exciton Coupling Leads to Excimer Formation in Molecular Dimers: Implications for Singlet Fission

Photoexcitation of molecular chromophore aggregates can form excimer states that play a significant role in photophysical processes such as charge and energy transfer as well as singlet fission. An excimer state is commonly defined as a superposition of Frenkel exciton and charge transfer states. In this work, we investigate the dynamics of excimer formation and decay in π-stacked 9,10-bis(phenylethynyl)anthracene (BPEA) covalent dimers appended to a xanthene spacer, where the electronic coupling between the two BPEA molecules is adjusted by changing their longitudinal molecular slip distances. Using exciton coupling calculations, we quantify the relative contributions of Frenkel excitons and charge transfer states and find that there is an upper and lower threshold of the charge transfer contribution for efficient excimer formation to occur. In conclusion, knowing these thresholds can aid the design of molecular aggregates that optimize singlet fission.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bond Dissociation Energies and Electronic Calculations on the Actinide Halides ThX and UX (X = Cl, Br, I)

Resonant two-photon ionization spectroscopy has been used to locate predissociation thresholds in the spectra of the actinide halides ThX and UX, where X = Cl, Br, and I. These predissociation thresholds are identified as the bond dissociation energies (BDEs) of the molecules. The resulting values show very similar BDEs for the corresponding ThX and UX species, with the thorium molecules being slightly more strongly bound: D 0 (ThCl) = 5.077(6) eV, D 0 (ThBr) = 4.391(4) eV, D 0 (ThI) = 3.537(8) eV, D 0 (UCl) = 4.989(3) eV, D 0 (UBr) = 4.313(3) eV, and D 0 (UI) = 3.449(8) eV. Here, the estimated error limit is given in parentheses in units of the last reported digit. Spinor-based coupled cluster calculations have also been carried out on the halides of this work, including also ThF and UF. Here, the final D 0 values after including contributions due to basis set incompleteness, outer-core-correlation, picture-change, and QED effects are within 0.04 eV of the present experimental values in each case.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Si–Cl 2 –Ar + Atomic Layer Etching Window: A Fundamental Study Using Molecular Dynamics Simulations and a Reduced Order Model

Silicon (Si) atomic layer etching (ALE) by alternating exposure to chlorine gas (Cl 2 ) and argon ions (Ar + ) is studied by using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and a reduced order model (ROM). Here, the purpose of this study is to elucidate the properties of the ALE window, a range of ion energies where the amount of Si etched over a series of cycles is nonzero and nearly independent of ion energy. Experimental studies of the Si–Cl 2 –Ar + ALE system report contradictory results related to the ALE window’s ion energy range. Both MD simulations and the ROM show that there is an ALE window present from approximately 15 to 20 eV for normal incidence argon ions. The Si–Cl 2 –Ar + system, therefore, exhibits a narrow ALE window. The amount of Si etched per cycle is less than one atomic layer because of the higher etch yield of Cl atoms relative to atomic Si and silicon chlorides. A modified version of the ROM with an artificially increased Si physical sputtering threshold energy expands the ALE window, illustrating the importance of the difference in chemical and physical sputtering threshold energies in the ALE window energy range. The ROM is also used to examine the dependence of the EPC on the Ar + ion fluence.

energy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Thermodynamic Band Gap Model for Photoinduced Phase Segregation in Mixed-Halide Perovskites

Provided is a comprehensive description of a band gap thermodynamic model, which predicts and explains key features of photosegregation in lead-based, mixed-halide perovskites. The model gives a prescription for illustrating halide migration driven by photocarrier energies. Where possible, model predictions are compared with experimental results. Free energy derivations are provided for three assumptions: (1) halide mixing in the dark, (2) a fixed number of photogenerated carriers funneling to and localizing in low band gap inclusions of the alloy, and (3) the statistical occupancy of said inclusions from a bath of thermalized photocarriers in the parent material. Model predictions include excitation intensity (I exc )-dependent terminal halide stoichiometries (x terminal ), temperature-independent x terminal , excitation intensity thresholds (I exc,threshold ) below which photosegregation is suppressed, and reduced segregation in nanocrystals as compared to thin films. Here, the model also offers insight into kinetically manipulating photosegregation rates via control of underlying mediators and rationalizes asymmetries in forward and reverse photosegregation rate constants/activation energies. What emerges is a cohesive framework for understanding ubiquitous photosegregation in mixed-halide perovskites and a rational basis by which to manage the phenomenon.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Resistance of Boron Nitride Nanotubes to Radiation-Induced Oxidation

We present unprecedented results on the damage thresholds and pathways for boron nitride nanotubes (BNNT) under the influence of energetic electrons in an oxidative gas environment, using an environmental aberration-corrected electron microscope over a range of oxygen pressures. We observe a damage cascade process that resists damage until a higher electron dose, compared with carbon nanotubes, initiating at defect-free BNNT sidewalls and proceeding through the conversion from crystalline nanotubes to amorphous boron nitride (BN), resisting oxidation throughout. We compare with prior results on the oxidation of carbon nanotubes and present a model that attributes the onset of damage in both cases to a physisorbed oxygen layer that reduces the threshold for damage onset. Surprisingly, increased temperatures offer protection against damage, as do electron dose rates that significantly exceed the oxygen dose rates, and our model attributes both effects to a physisorbed oxygen population.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heterogeneous Corrosion Pathways in Pt–Ni Nanododecahedra Revealed by In Situ Liquid Cell TEM

Unraveling nanoscale corrosion pathways is essential for understanding materials degradation mechanisms and designing corrosion-resistant metal alloys. Here, in this study, we directly visualize the corrosion of Pt–Ni nanododecahedra in 0.1 M HCl using liquid cell TEM. Each nanoparticle features a Ni-rich core and a Pt-rich frame. Our observation reveals that corrosion proceeds in two distinct stages: first the Ni-rich core dissolves without forming porosity, yielding small Pt nanocrystals and transient NiCl 2 ·6H 2 O at the retreating interfaces; then the Pt-rich frame fragments into ∼5 nm Pt 3 Ni nanocrystals that subsequently dissolve uniformly, accompanied by fleeting Pt chlorides. A percolation-based theory explains the observed behaviors: The core’s ∼8% Pt lies below the Pt connectivity threshold, preventing Pt scaffold formation, whereas the frame’s 48% Ni exceeds the Ni percolation threshold and collapses. Ordered Pt 3 Ni suppresses Ni percolation, thereby enforcing uniform dissolution. These findings reveal how composition and structural ordering govern heterogeneous corrosion in Pt–Ni architectured nanoparticles.

Liquid phase TEM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Amplified Spontaneous Emission from Electron–Hole Quantum Droplets in Colloidal CdSe Nanoplatelets

Two-dimensional cadmium selenide nanoplatelets (NPLs) exhibit large absorption cross sections and homogeneously broadened band-edge transitions that offer utility in wide-ranging optoelectronic applications. Here, we examine the temperature-dependence of amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) in 4- and 5-monolayer thick NPLs and show that the threshold for close-packed (neat) films decreases with decreasing temperature by a factor of 2-10 relative to ambient temperature owing to extrinsic (trapping) and intrinsic (phonon-derived line width) factors. Interestingly, for pump intensities that exceed the ASE threshold, we find development of intense emission to lower energy in particular provided that the film temperature is <= 200 K. For NPLs diluted in an inert polymer, both biexcitonic ASE and low-energy emission are suppressed, suggesting that described neat-film observables rely upon high chromophore density and rapid, collective processes. Transient emission spectra reveal ultrafast red-shifting with the time of the lower energy emission. Taken together, these findings indicate a previously unreported process of amplified stimulated emission from polyexciton states that is consistent with quantum droplets and constitutes a form of exciton condensate. For studied samples, quantum droplets form provided that roughly 17 meV or less of thermal energy is available, which we hypothesize relates to polyexciton binding energy. Polyexciton ASE can produce pump-fluence-tunable red-shifted ASE even 120 meV lower in energy than biexciton ASE. Finally, our findings convey the importance of biexciton and polyexciton populations in nanoplatelets and show that quantum droplets can exhibit light amplification at significantly lower photon energies than biexcitonic ASE.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Generalized Transformer-Based Pulse Detection Algorithm

Pulse-like signals are ubiquitous in the field of single molecule analysis, e.g., electrical or optical pulses caused by analyte translocations in nanopores. The primary challenge in processing pulse-like signals is to capture the pulses in noisy backgrounds, but current methods are subjectively based on a user-defined threshold for pulse recognition. Here, we propose a generalized machine-learning based method, named pulse detection transformer (PETR), for pulse detection. PETR determines the start and end time points of individual pulses, thereby singling out pulse segments in a time-sequential trace. It is objective without needing to specify any threshold. It provides a generalized interface for downstream algorithms for specific application scenarios. PETR is validated using both simulated and experimental nanopore translocation data. It returns a competitive performance in detecting pulses through assessing them with several standard metrics. Finally, the generalization nature of the PETR output is demonstrated using two representative algorithms for feature extraction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon-13 Radiofrequency Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation of the Hyperpolarized Ketone and Hemiketal Forms of Allyl [1- 13 C]Pyruvate

13 C hyperpolarized pyruvate is an emerging MRI contrast agent for sensing molecular events in cancer and other diseases with aberrant metabolic pathways. This metabolic contrast agent can be produced via several hyperpolarization techniques. Despite remarkable success in research settings, widespread clinical adoption faces substantial roadblocks because the current sensing technology utilized to sense this contrast agent requires the excitation of 13 C nuclear spins that also need to be synchronized with MRI field gradient pulses. Here, we demonstrate sensing of hyperpolarized allyl [1- 13 C]pyruvate via the stimulated emission of radiation that mitigates the requirements currently blocking broader adoption. Specifically, 13 C Radiofrequency Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation ( 13 C RASER) was obtained after pairwise addition of parahydrogen to a pyruvate precursor, detected in a commercial inductive detector with a quality factor (Q) of 32 for sample concentrations as low as 0.125 M with 13 C polarization of 4%. Moreover, parahydrogen-induced polarization allowed for the preparation of a mixture of ketone and hemiketal forms of hyperpolarized allyl [1- 13 C]pyruvate, which are separated by 10 ppm in 13 C NMR spectra. This is a good model system to study the simultaneous 13 C RASER signals of multiple 13 C species. This system models the metabolic production of hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]lactate from hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]pyruvate, which has a similar chemical shift difference. Our results show that 13 C RASER signals can be obtained from both species simultaneously when the emission threshold is exceeded for both species. On the other hand, when the emission threshold is exceeded only for one of the hyperpolarized species, 13 C stimulated emission is confined to this species only, therefore enabling the background-free detection of individual hyperpolarized 13 C signals. Furthermore, the reported results pave the way to novel sensing approaches of 13 C hyperpolarized pyruvate, potentially unlocking hyperpolarized 13 C MRI on virtually any MRI system–an attractive vision for the future molecular imaging and diagnostics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electrocatalytic Hydrogen Evolution at Full Atomic Utilization over ITO-Supported Sub-nano-Pt n Clusters: High, Size-Dependent Activity Controlled by Fluxional Pt Hydride Species

A combination of density functional theory (DFT) and experiments with atomically size-selected Pt n clusters deposited on indium-tin oxide (ITO) electrodes was used to examine the effects of applied potential and Pt n size on the electrocatalytic activity of Pt n (n = 1, 4, 7, 8) for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER). Activity is found to be negligible for isolated Pt atoms on ITO, increasing rapidly with Pt n size, such that Pt 7 /ITO and Pt 8 /ITO have roughly double the activity per Pt atom compared to atoms in the surface layer of polycrystalline Pt. Both DFT and experiment find that hydrogen under-potential deposition (H upd ) results in Pt n /ITO (n = 4, 7, 8) adsorbing ~2 H atoms/Pt atom at the HER threshold potential, equal to ca. double the Hupd observed for Pt bulk or nanoparticles. Here, the cluster catalysts under electrocatalytic conditions are hence best described as a Pt hydride compound, significantly departing from a metallic Pt cluster. The exception is Pt 1 /ITO, where H adsorption at the HER threshold potential is energetically unfavorable. Theory combines global optimization with grand canonical approaches for the influence of potential, uncovering that several metastable structures contribute to HER, changing with the applied potential. It is hence critical to include reactions of the ensemble of energetically accessible Pt n H x /ITO structures to correctly predict the activity vs. Pt n size and applied potential. For the small clusters, spillover of H ads from the clusters to the ITO support is significant, resulting in a competing channel for loss of H ads , particularly at slow potential scan rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bond Dissociation Energy, Ionization Energy, and Electronic Structure of Thorium Dimer

Diatomic thorium, Th 2 , has been investigated using a laser ablation, supersonic expansion source to produce the molecule and resonant two-photon ionization spectroscopy to measure its bond dissociation energy (BDE) and ionization energy (IE). The molecule has a high density of states in the vicinity of its bond dissociation energy, leading to rapid predissociation as soon as this energy is exceeded. The BDE is identified from this predissociation threshold as D 0 (Th 2 ) = 2.857(7) eV, where the assigned error limit is provided in parentheses in units of the last quoted digit. Similarly, the one-photon ionization threshold has been measured, providing the ionization energy IE(Th 2 ) = 5.042(4) eV. Together with a thermochemical cycle and the atomic ionization energy, these values provide the BDE of the cation, giving D 0 (Th 2 + ) = 4.122(8) eV. Computations show that Th 2 has three nearly degenerate low-lying electronic states (1 3 Σ u + , 1 1 Σ g + , and 1 3 Δ g ) with bonding dominated by 7s and 6d orbitals, indicating predominantly transition-metal-like behavior. The 1 3 Σ u + state exhibits a triple bond, whereas the 1 1 Σ g + and 1 3 Δ g states possess quadruple-bond character and correspondingly shorter bonds. Although 1 3 Σ u + is predicted to be the lowest state without spin–orbit coupling, the large spin–orbit stabilization of the 1 3 Δ g state makes its Ω = 1 g component the ground state. Furthermore, the calculated dissociation energy (2.840 eV) and ionization energy of Th 2 (5.098 eV) are both in excellent agreement with experiment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts

The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard assessment method is proposed to estimate compound coastal-riverine frequency under current and future climate conditions. A copula-based approach is used to estimate the joint return period (JRP) of compound floods by incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in peak river flows into the marginal distributions of flood drivers. Specifically, the changes in JRP of compound major coastal-riverine flooding defined based on simultaneous exceedances above major coastal and riverine thresholds, are explored by midcentury. Subsequently, the increase in the probability of occurrence of at least one compound major coastal-riverine flooding for a given period of time is quantified. The proposed compound flood hazard assessment is conducted at 26 paired tidal-riverine stations along the Contiguous United States coast with long-term data and defined flood thresholds. We show that the northeast Atlantic and the western part of the Gulf coasts are experiencing the highest compound major coastal-riverine flood probability under current conditions. However, future SLR scenarios show the highest frequency amplification along the southeast Atlantic coast. The impact of changes in peak river flows is found to be considerably less than that of SLR. Climate change impacts, especially SLR, may lead to more frequent compound events, which cannot be ignored for future adaptation responses in estuary regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seismic Diffusivity and the Influence of Heterogeneity on Injection‐Induced Seismicity

Abstract The spatiotemporal patterns of injection‐induced seismicity (IIS) are commonly interpreted with the concept of a triggering front, which propagates in a diffusion‐like manner with an associated diffusivity parameter. Here, we refer to this diffusivity as the “seismic diffusivity.” Several previous studies implicitly assume that seismic diffusivity is equivalent to the effective hydraulic diffusivity of the subsurface, which describes the behavior of the mean pressure field in heterogeneous porous media. Seismicity‐based approaches for hydraulic characterization or simulations of IIS using domains of homogeneous equivalent porous media are implicitly based on this assumed equivalence. However, seismicity is expected to propagate with the threshold triggering pressure, and thus not be controlled by the evolution of the mean pressure field. We present numerical simulations of fluid injection to compare the seismic and effective hydraulic diffusivities in heterogeneous formations (including fractured rock). The numerical model combines uncoupled, linear pressure diffusion with the Mohr‐Coulomb failure criterion to simulate IIS. We demonstrate that connected pathways of relatively high hydraulic diffusivity in heterogeneous media (particularly in fractured rock domains) allow the threshold triggering pressure to propagate more rapidly than predicted by the effective hydraulic diffusivity. As a result, the seismic diffusivity is greater than the effective hydraulic diffusivity in heterogeneous porous media, possibly by an order of magnitude or more. Additionally, we present a case study of IIS near Soultz‐sous‐Forêts where seismic diffusivity is found to be at least one order of magnitude larger than the effective hydraulic diffusivity.

Haagenson, Ryan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements

Tipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long-term states upon passing key thresholds or “tipping points.” In some cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Improved understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks and their impacts. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with 10 notable Earth system components proposed to be tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are approaching critical thresholds and whether shifts may manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements have a higher risk of crossing tipping points under middle-of-the-road emissions pathways and will possibly affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the 21st century. However, literature assessing different emissions scenarios indicates a strong potential to reduce impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. The studies synthesized in our review suggest most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some proposed tipping elements may not exhibit tipping behavior, rather responding more predictably and directly to the magnitude of forcing. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗