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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

Upper Limits of Predictability in Long-Range Climate/Hydrologic Forecasts

The accurate forecasting of el nino or la nina conditions in the tropical Pacific can potentially lead to valuable predictions of hydrological anomalies over land at seasonal to interannual timescales. Even with highly accurate earth system models, though, our ability to generate these continental forecasts will always be limited by the chaotic nature of the atmospheric circulation. The nature of this fundamental limitation is explored through the use of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. In each simulation of the first ensemble, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are given the same realistic interannual variations over a 45-year period, and land surface state is allowed to evolve with that of the atmosphere. Analysis of the results shows that the SSTs control the temporal organization of continental precipitation anomalies to a significant extent in the tropics and to a much smaller extent in midlatitudes. In each simulation of the second ensemble, we prescribe SSTs as before, but we also prescribe interannual variations in the low frequency component of evaporation efficiency over land. Thus, in the second ensemble, we effectively make the extreme assumption that surface boundary conditions across the globe are perfectly predictable, and we quantify the consistency with which the atmosphere (particularly precipitation) responds to these boundary conditions. The resulting "absolute upper limit" on the predictability of precipitation is found to be quite high in the tropics yet only moderate in many midlatitude regions.

Koster, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The DROPPS/MIDAS Campaign Neutral Atmosphere Measurements and the Occurrence of PMSE and NLC

Measurements of the neutral atmosphere and their relationship to electrodynamic conditions in the mesosphere have been of interest for many years. Inflatable falling sphere measurements along with electrodynamic measurements were obtained in conjunction with the occurrence of PMSE and NLC during the DROPPS/MIDAS Campaign conducted in July 1999 from Andenes Rocket Range, Norway. The inflatable failing sphere measurements in conjunction with a PMSE event on 5-6 July and with a NLC event on 14 July are used to infer thermal advection and its influence on the clouds' maintenance. Hodograph analysis, an early tropospheric tool used by analyst and forecasters, will be used to determine the magnitude and direction of thermal advection from measured wind data. Analysis of the wind structure through the use of hodographs and some assumptions can determine thermal advection, wind shear, and possible vertical motion. Changes in the temperature structure between allied observations were subtle which may be explained by advection. Because of meteorological instabilities in the mesosphere it is possible that hodograph analysis may not fully work. It is our intention to show that such analysis has value and has a place in the mesosphere.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Aura Atmospheric Data Products and Their Availability from NASA Goddard Earth Sciences DAAC

NASA's EOS-Aura spacecraft was launched successfully on July 15, 2004. The four instruments onboard the spacecraft are the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HBDLS). The Aura instruments are designed to gather earth sciences measurements across the ultraviolet, visible, infra-red, thermal and microwave regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Aura will provide over 70 distinct standard atmospheric data products for use in ozone layer and surface UV-B monitoring, air quality forecast, and atmospheric chemistry and climate change studies (http://eosaura.gsfc.nasa.gov/). These products include earth-atmosphere radiances and solar spectral irradiances; total column, tropospheric, and profiles of ozone and other trace gases, surface W-B flux; clouds and aerosol characteristics; and temperature, geopotential height, and water vapor profiles. The MLS, OMI, and HIRDLS data products will be archived at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC), while data from TES will be archived at NASA Langley Research Center DAAC. Some of the standard products which have gone through quick preliminary checks are already archived at the GES DAAC (http://daac.nsfc.nasa.gov/) and are available to the Aura science team and data validation team members for data validation; and to the application and visualization software developers, for testing their application modules. Once data are corrected for obvious calibration problems and partially validated using in-situ observations, they would be made available to the broader user community. This presentation will provide details of the whole suite of Aura atmospheric data products, and the time line of the availability of the rest of the preliminary products and of the partially validated provisional products. Software and took available for data access, visualization, and data mining will also be discussed.

Ahmad, S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sensitivity of Different Types of Observations to NASA GEOS Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was the 5th most active, featuring 17 named storms, the highest number of major hurricanes since 2005, and by far the costliest season on record. African easterly waves often serve as the seeding circulation for a large portion of hurricanes (i.e. tropical storms with wind over 74mph in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific). Warm SST, moist air, and low wind shear are the main requirements for tropical cyclones to develop and maintain hurricane strength. In terms of hurricane propagation (so called hurricane tracks), Atlantic hurricanes typically propagate around the periphery of the subtropical ridge called the Bermuda High (Azores High), riding along its strongest winds. If the high is positioned to the east, then hurricanes generally propagate northeastward around the high's western edge into the open Atlantic Ocean without making land fall. If the high is positioned to the west and extends far enough to the south, storms are blocked from curving north and forced to continue west towards Florida, Cuba, and the Gulf of Mexico. If we have accurate atmospheric temperature distribution, which is directly related to atmospheric wave patterns, wind distributions, moisture distribution, and SST distribution in the analyses, we will have better NWP skills in hurricane analyses including hurricane intensity and tracks. Assimilating various observation data are supposed to play these roles in the analyses. To examine impacts of different types of observation data on NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model hurricane analyses and forecasts during the period of 2017 summer, this study performs data denial experiments using GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), which is based on the hybrid 4D-EnVar GSI algorithm. Various types of observations such as microwave sounders, infrared sounders, TCvitals, and conventional data are removed in the experiments. In addition, the interaction between the different observation groups as certain instruments are removed from the analysis is investigated in detail using adjoint based forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI).

Hurricane↗
NASA NTRS1975

Atmospheric response to variations in sea-surface temperature

A two-week prediction experiment was performed with the GISS atmospheric model on a global data set beginning 20 December 1972 to test the sensitivity of the model to sea-surface temperature (SST) variations. Use of observed SST's in place of climatological monthly mean sea temperatures for surface flux calculations in the model was found to have a marked local effect on predicted precipitation over the ocean, with enhanced convection over warm SST anomalies. However, use of observed SST's did not lead to any detectable general improvement in forecast skill. The influence of the SST anomalies on daily predicted fields of pressure and geopotential was small up to about one week compared with the growth of prediction error, and no greater over a two-week period than that resulting from random errors in the initial meteorological state. The 14-day average fields of sea-level pressure and 500 mb height predicted by the model were similarly insensitive to the SST anomalies.

Spar, J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Diagnostic studies of the 1987 Antarctic spring vortex

Dynamical fields form the UK Meteorological office global forecast model were used throughout the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) for flight planning and diagnostic studies. Here, several studies based on the Meteorological Office global analysis (resolution 1.5 degrees lattitude x 1.875 degrees longitude, Lyne et al.) are described. The wind and temperature data derived from the model analysis are compared with observations made from both the DCB and ER-2, and an assessment of the model performance given. Derived quantities such as potential vorticity and model data and discrepancies due to the model data are discussed.

Austin, J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Data assimilation and model evaluation experiment datasets

The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets. The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: (1) collection of observational data; (2) analysis and interpretation; (3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; (4) quality control and re-analysis; and (5) data archiving and software documentation. The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement. Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include (1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, (2) diagnosis and theoretical studies, and (3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

Lai, Chung-Cheng A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Ship Radar Observations of a Developing Hurricane in the East Pacific

During the recently completed East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System (EPIC) field program, the NOAA research vessel Ronald H. Brown (RHB) was deployed in the east Pacific Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) for approximately 3 weeks near 10 deg. N, 95 deg. W. One of the principal objectives of the EPIC-ITCZ program was to observe the modulation of convection by synoptic-scale easterly waves and the air-sea coupling process in this poorly sampled region of the east Pacific. Data from the experiment will be used as validation to improve forecast models. The RHB carried a variety of platforms during EPIC to sample atmospheric and oceanic phenomena, including a scanning C-band Doppler radar, radiation flux instrumentation, air-sea flux system, Doppler lidar, 35 GHz cloud radar, UHF wind profiler, sea surface temperature (SST) sensors, as well as standard surface meteorological instrumentation and a suite of rain gauges. This presentation will focus on the analysis of C-band radar data that was collected on 10 September, 2001 as the ship passed through an easterly wave which later developed into hurricane Ivo. The ship captured approximately 12 hours of convection associated with the tropical disturbance. During this period, the domain sampled by the radar (approximately 71,000 sq km) contained a significant number of echo features. Specifically, the fraction of the domain containing radar echo above 10 dBZ reached 80% for over 2 hours and remained near 60% for a continuous six hour period. Animation of radar images showed distinct rotation in echo features associated with the easterly wave passage. Despite an approximate 4 C drop in surface air temperature and sustained winds approaching 20 m/ s, the SST remained nearly constant throughout the observation period (approx. 29.5 C). Peak values of latent and sensible heat flux exceeded 400 and 100 W /sq m, respectively. The radar documented the change in precipitation vertical structure as the ship passed through regions of significant convection with echo tops approaching 14 km and 30 dBZ echo tops extending to near 9 km embedded in regions that were predominantly stratiform in nature. Single Doppler retrievals (Extended Velocity Azimuth Display) were conducted continuously at 10-minute resolution for approximately 4 hours in the latter part of the observation period, and documented the transition from convection (low-level convergence, upper level divergence) to stratiform (mid-level convergence sandwiched between upper and lower level divergence) kinematic structure.

Cifelli, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2003

Factors Affecting the Evolution of Hurricane Erin and the Distributions of Hydrometeors: Role of Microphysical Processes

Fine-resolution simulations of Hurricane Erin 2001 are conducted using the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model version 3.5 to investigate the role of thermodynamic, boundary layer and microphysical processes in Erin's growth and maintenance, and their effects on the horizontal and vertical distributions of hydrometeors. Through comparison against radar, radiometer, and dropsonde data collected during the Convection and Moisture Experiment 4, it is seen that realistic simulations of Erin are obtained provided that fine resolution simulations with detailed representations of physical processes are conducted. The principle findings of the study are as follows: 1) a new iterative condensation scheme, which limits the unphysical increase of equivalent potential temperature associated with most condensation schemes, increases the horizontal size of the hurricane, decreases its maximum rainfall rate, reduces its intensity, and makes its eye more moist; 2) in general, microphysical parameterization schemes with more categories of hydrometeors produce more intense hurricanes, larger hydrometeor mixing ratios, and more intense updrafts and downdrafts; 3) the choice of coefficients describing hydrometeor fall velocities has as big of an impact on the hurricane simulations as does choice of microphysical parameterization scheme with no clear relationship between fall velocity and hurricane intensity; and 4) in order for a tropical cyclone to adequately intensify, an advanced boundary layer scheme (e.g., Burk-Thompson scheme) must be used to represent boundary layer processes. The impacts of varying simulations on the horizontal and vertical distributions of different categories of hydrometeor species, on equivalent potential temperature, and on storm updrafts and downdrafts are examined to determine how the release of latent heat feedbacks upon the structure of Erin. In general, all simulations tend to overpredict precipitation rate and hydrometeor mixing ratios. The ramifications of these findings for quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) of tropical cyclones are discussed.

McFarquhar, Greg M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Meteorological Controls on Biomass Burning During Santa Ana Events in Southern California

Fires occurring during Santa Ana (SA) events in southern California are driven by extreme fire weather characterized by high temperatures, low humidities, and high wind speeds. We studied the controls on burned area and carbon emissions during two intensive SA burning periods in 2003 and 2007. We therefore used remote sensing data in parallel with fire weather simulations of the Weather and Regional Forecast model. Total carbon emissions were approximately 1800 gigagrams in 2003 and 900 gigagrams in 2007, based on a daily burned area and a fire emission model that accounted for spatial variability in fuel loads and combustion completeness. On a regional scale, relatively strong positive correlations were found between the daily Fosberg fire weather index and burned area/emissions (probability is less than 0.01). Our analysis provides a quantitative assessment of relationships between fire activity and weather during severe SA fires in southern California.

Santa Ana (SA)↗
NASA NTRS1981

The Seasat commercial demonstration program

The background and development of the Seasat commercial demonstration program are reviewed and the Seasat spacecraft and its sensors (altimeter, wind field scatterometer, synthetic aperture radar, and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer) are described. The satellite data distribution system allows for selected sets of data, reformatted or tailored to specific needs and geographical regions, to be available to commercial users. Products include sea level and upper atmospheric pressure, sea surface temperature, marine winds, significant wave heights, primary wave direction and period, and spectral wave data. The results of a set of retrospective case studies performed for the commercial demonstration program are described. These are in areas of application such as marine weather and ocean condition forecasting, offshore resource exploration and development, commercial fishing, and marine transportation.

Mccandless, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Interannual Variability in the Thermal Habitat of Alexandrium catenella in the Bay of Fundy and the Implications of Climate Change

Globally, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are an increasing problem. In the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella are annually recurrent phenomena. As this region is one of the most rapidly warming areas of the global ocean, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving the initiation of local A. catenella blooms, their interannual variability and the implications of future climate change is critical to local monitoring strategies and marine resources management. A 27-year (1988–2014) time series of weekly A. catenella cell counts from the Bay of Fundy and concurrent satellite-measured sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge from the St. John River and wind-driven turbulence are compared to assess their relationship to variability in bloom phenology metrics. The mean thermal habitat associated with early detection of A. catenella is 6.5 ± 1.6°C, whereas that of bloom initiation averages 9.2 ± 1.5°C. Both thermal habitats for A. catenella are trending earlier over the study period. Bloom initiations that precede the arrival of the thermal habitat mean (occur in colder water) are associated with higher spring freshwater discharge and are generally weaker blooms. Increased spring freshwater discharge is also associated with earlier bloom initiation and earlier maximum concentration dates. No significant relationship was observed with the strength of wind-driven mixing. Removal of the mean thermal seasonal cycle shows that surface temperature anomalies have a strong negative relationship to the bloom phenology metrics and arrival of thermal habitat: warmer years are linked to earlier arrival of thermal habitats (∼12 days °C–1) and earlier detection and bloom initiation dates (∼33 days °C–1). Using these relationships and present trends in Bay of Fundy surface temperature warming over the period 1982–2019, we project the arrival dates of bloom thermal habitat and bloom phenology metrics out to the middle of this century. Based on current rates of sea surface temperature change, bloom phenology metrics (e.g., bloom initiation, early detection), can be expected to shift 1–2 months earlier in the season by mid-century. Such changes in the phenology of A. catenella blooms will need to be incorporated into both monitoring strategies and forecasting models for the region.

Andre F. Bucci↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Land Surface in Current and Planned MERRA Reanalysis Products

Current global atmospheric reanalysis products such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), and the Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century (JRA-3Q) provide estimates of land surface states and fluxes, including soil moisture, soil temperature, snow mass, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff, that are widely used in research and applications. These land surface estimates are based on land surface process models and, depending on the reanalysis product, on precipitation observations or the assimilation of land surface observations of soil moisture, soil temperature, snow conditions, and screen-level air temperature and humidity from satellite observations and in situ measurements. In this presentation, we review the land surface modeling and data assimilation components of the suite of current and planned MERRA reanalysis products. In addition to MERRA-2, we will discuss the latest NASA reanalysis, MERRA for the 21st century (M21C), which is currently under production, as well as the development and planning of the next version of the MERRA reanalysis, tentatively labeled MERRA-3. In MERRA-2, observations-based precipitation data products are used to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. Outside of the high-latitudes and Africa, the daily, 0.5-degree, gauge-based Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified (CPCU) product is used. In Africa, the pentad, 2.5-degree, satellite- and gauge-based CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) product is used. Poleward of 62.5 degrees latitude, the land surface sees the precipitation generated by the atmospheric model in the cycling data assimilation system. This configuration provides improved soil moisture estimates compared to those of the original (version 1) MERRA estimates, which did not benefit from the use of precipitation observations. Moreover, the use of precipitation observations facilitates a seamless spin-up of the land surface initial conditions across the MERRA-2 production streams. The use of a gauge-only precipitation product in MERRA-2 across much of the globe, however, adversely impacts the quality of the MERRA-2 land surface estimates in regions with poor gauge coverage, including most of South America and Australia. Therefore, the forthcoming M21C reanalysis uses satellite- and gauge-based precipitation from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG). This change results in significant improvements in the quality of the M21C soil moisture estimates in the Southern Hemisphere compared to those from MERRA-2. Planning for MERRA-3 focuses on the assimilation of soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), along with snow cover area fraction observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to further improve the quality of the land surface estimates from the reanalysis. As a first step towards the assimilation of land surface observations in MERRA-3, the offline (land-only) M21C-Land reanalysis is currently under development as a supplemental M21C product that includes the assimilation of SMAP, ASCAT, and MODIS observations. Preliminary results from M21C and M21C-Land will be discussed in the context of MERRA-2 and plans for MERRA-3.

Rolf Reichle↗
NASA NTRS2008

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Barrett, Joe, III↗
NASA NTRS2004

Comparison of Satellite and Aircraft Measurements of Cloud Microphysical Properties in Icing Conditions During ATREC/AIRS-II

Satellites are ideal for continuous monitoring of aircraft icing conditions in many situations over extensive areas. The satellite imager data are used to diagnose a number of cloud properties that can be used to develop icing intensity indices. Developing and validating these indices requires comparison with objective "cloud truth" data in addition to conventional pilot reports (PIREPS) of icing conditions. Minnis et al. examined the relationships between PIREPS icing and satellite-derived cloud properties. The Atlantic-THORPEX Regional Campaign (ATReC) and the second Alliance Icing Research Study (AIRS-II) field programs were conducted over the northeastern USA and southeastern Canada during late 2003 and early 2004. The aircraft and surface measurements are concerned primarily with the icing characteristics of clouds and, thus, are ideal for providing some validation information for the satellite remote sensing product. This paper starts the process of comparing cloud properties and icing indices derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) with the aircraft in situ measurements of several cloud properties during campaigns and some of the The comparisons include cloud phase, particle size, icing intensity, base and top altitudes, temperatures, and liquid water path. The results of this study are crucial for developing a more reliable and objective icing product from satellite data. This icing product, currently being derived from GOES data over the USA, is an important complement to more conventional products based on forecasts, and PIREPS.

Nguyen, Louis↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Application of Satellite-Derived, High-Resolution Land Use/Land Cover Data to Improve Urban Air Quality Model Forecasts

Local and state agencies are responsible for developing state implementation plans to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Numerical models used for this purpose simulate the transport and transformation of criteria pollutants and their precursors. The specification of land use/land cover (LULC) plays an important role in controlling modeled surface meteorology and emissions. NASA researchers have worked with partners and Atlanta stakeholders to incorporate an improved high-resolution LULC dataset for the Atlanta area within their modeling system and to assess meteorological and air quality impacts of Urban Heat Island (UHI) mitigation strategies. The new LULC dataset provides a more accurate representation of land use, has the potential to improve model accuracy, and facilitates prediction of LULC changes. Use of the new LULC dataset for two summertime episodes improved meteorological forecasts, with an existing daytime cold bias of approx. equal to 3 C reduced by 30%. Model performance for ozone prediction did not show improvement. In addition, LULC changes due to Atlanta area urbanization were predicted through 2030, for which model simulations predict higher urban air temperatures. The incorporation of UHI mitigation strategies partially offset this warming trend. The data and modeling methods used are generally applicable to other U.S. cities.

Quattrochi, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Observations During GRIP from HIRAD: Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate

HIRAD (Hurricane Imaging Radiometer) flew on the WB-57 during NASA's GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) campaign in August - September of 2010. HIRAD is a new C-band radiometer using a synthetic thinned array radiometer (STAR) technology to obtain cross-track resolution of approximately 3 degrees, out to approximately 60 degrees to each side of nadir. By obtaining measurements of emissions at 4, 5, 6, and 6.6 GHz, observations of ocean surface wind speed and rain rate can be inferred. This technique has been used for many years by precursor instruments, including the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which has been flying on the NOAA and USAF hurricane reconnaissance aircraft for several years. The advantage of HIRAD over SFMR is that HIRAD can observe a +/- 60-degree swath, rather than a single footprint at nadir angle. Results from the flights during the GRIP campaign will be shown, including images of brightness temperatures, wind speed, and rain rate. To the extent possible, comparisons will be made with observations from other instruments on the GRIP campaign, for which HIRAD observations are either directly comparable or are complementary. Potential impacts on operational ocean surface wind analyses and on numerical weather forecasts will also be discussed.

Miller, Timothy L.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Cold Season Performance of the NU-WRF Regional Climate Model in the Great Lakes Region

As Earth’s largest collection of freshwater, the Laurentian Great Lakes have enormous ecological and socio-economic value. Their basin has become a regional hotspot of climatic and limnological change, potentially threatening its vital natural resources. Consequentially, there is a need to assess the current state of climate models regarding their performance across the Great Lakes region and develop the next generation of high-resolution regional climate models to address complex limnological processes and lake-atmosphere interactions. In response to this need, the current paper focuses on the generation and analysis of a 20-member ensemble of 3-km National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) simulations for the 2014-2015 cold season. The study aims to identify the model’s strengths and weaknesses; optimal configuration for the region; and the impacts of different physics parameterizations, coupling to a 1D lake model, time-variant lake-surface temperatures, and spectral nudging. Several key biases are identified in the cold-season simulations for the Great Lakes region, including an atmospheric cold bias that is amplified by coupling to a 1D lake model but diminished by applying the Community Atmosphere Model radiation scheme and Morrison microphysics scheme; an excess precipitation bias; anomalously early initiation of fall lake turnover and subsequent cold lake bias; excessive and overly persistent lake ice cover; and insufficient evaporation over Lakes Superior and Huron. The research team is currently addressing these key limitations by coupling NU-WRF to a 3D lake model in support of the next generation of regional climate models for the critical Great Lakes Basin.

Michael Notaro↗