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NASA NTRS1981

The natural history of Halley's comet

The 1986 apparition of Halley's comet will be the subject of numerous space probes, planned to determine the chemical nature and physical structure of comet nuclei, atmospheres, and ionospheres, as well as comet tails. The problems of cometary origin remain inconclusive, with theories ranging from a purely interstellar origin to their being ejecta from the Galilean satellites of Jupiter. Comets can be grouped into one of two classes, depending on their periodicity, and statistical mechanics of the entire Jovian family of comets can be examined under the equilibrium hypothesis. Comet anatomy estimations have been determined, and there is speculation that comet chemistry may have been a factor in the origin of life on earth. Halley's comet was first noted using Newton's dynamical methods, and Brady (1972) attempted to use the comet as a gravitational probe in search of a trans-Plutonian planet. Halley's orbit is calculated by combination of ancient observations and modern scientific methods.

Mclaughlin, W. I.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Low-Flow-Rate Dry-Powder Feeder

Apparatus feeds small, precise flow of dry powder through laser beam of optical analyzer, measuring patterns of light created by forward scattering (Fraunhofer diffraction) of laser beam from powder particles. From measurement, statistical distribution of sizes of powder particles computed. Developed for analyzing particle-size distributions of solid-propellant powders. Also adapted to use in pharmaceutical industry, in manufacture of metal powder, and in other applications in which particle-size distributions of materials used to control rates of chemical reactions and/or physical characteristics of processes.

Ramsey, Keith E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

IRIS Product Recommendations

This report presents the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) evaluation of SIGMET Inc.'s Integrated Radar Information System (IRIS) Product Generator and recommendations for products emphasizing lightning and microburst tools. The IRIS Product Generator processes radar reflectivity data from the Weather Surveillance Radar, model 74C (WSR-74C), located on Patrick Air Force Base. The IRIS System was upgraded from version 6.12 to version 7.05 in late December 1999. A statistical analysis of atmospheric temperature variability over the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Weather Station provided guidance for the configuration of radar products that provide information on the mixed-phase (liquid and ice) region of clouds, between 0 C and -20 C. Mixed-phase processes at these temperatures are physically linked to electrification and the genesis of severe weather within convectively generated clouds. Day-to-day variations in the atmospheric temperature profile are of sufficient magnitude to warrant periodic reconfiguration of radar products intended for the interpretation of lightning and microburst potential of convectively generated clouds. The AMU also examined the radar volume-scan strategy to determine the scales of vertical gaps within the altitude range of the 0 C to -20 C isotherms over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS area. This report present's two objective strategies for designing volume scans and proposes a modified scan strategy that reduces the average vertical gap by 37% as a means for improving radar observations of cloud characteristics in the critical 0 C to -20 C layer. The AMU recommends a total of 18 products, including 11 products that require use of the IRIS programming language and the IRIS User Product Insert feature. Included is a cell trends product and display, modeled after the WSR-88D cell trends display in use by the National Weather Service.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Global Intercomparison of hyper-resolution ECOSTRESS coastal sea surface temperature measurements from the Space Station with VIIRS-N20

The ECOSTRESS multi-channel thermal radiometer on the Space Station has an unprecedented spatial resolution of 70 m and a return time of hours to 5 days. It resolves details of oceanographic features not detectable in imagery from MODIS or VIIRS, and has open-ocean coverage, unlike Landsat. We calibrated two years of ECOSTRESS sea surface temperature observations with L2 data from VIIRS-N20 (2019–2020) worldwide but especially focused on important upwelling systems currently undergoing climate change forcing. Unlike operational SST products from VIIRS-N20, the ECOSTRESS surface temperature algorithm does not use a regression approach to determine temperature, but solves a set of simultaneous equations based on first principles for both surface temperature and emissivity. We compared ECOSTRESS ocean temperatures to well-calibrated clear sky satellite measurements from VIIRS-N20. Data comparisons were constrained to those within 90 min of one another using co-located clear sky VIIRS and ECOSTRESS pixels. ECOSTRESS ocean temperatures have a consistent 1.01 ◦C negative bias relative to VIIRS-N20, although deviation in brightness temperatures within the 10.49 and 12.01 µm bands were much smaller. As an alternative, we compared the performance of NOAA, NASA, and U.S. Navy operational split-window SST regression algorithms taking into consideration the statistical limitations imposed by intrinsic SST spatial autocorrelation and applying corrections on brightness temperatures. We conclude that standard bias-correction methods using already validated and well-known algorithms can be applied to ECOSTRESS SST data, yielding highly accurate products of ultra-high spatial resolution for studies of biological and physical oceanography in a time when these are needed to properly evaluate regional and even local impacts of climate change.

Nicolas Weidberg↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Performance Analysis on Soil Dielectric Models Over Organic Soils in Alaska for Passive Microwave Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture

Passive microwave remote sensing of soil moisture (SM) requires a physically based dielectric model that quantitatively converts the volumetric SM into the soil bulk dielectric constant. Mironov 2009 is the dielectric model used in the operational SM retrieval algorithms of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) missions. However, Mironov 2009 suffers a challenge in deriving SM over organic soils, as it does not account for the impact of soil organic matter (SOM) on the soil bulk dielectric constant. To this end, we presented a comparative performance analysis of nine advanced soil dielectric models over organic soil in Alaska, four of which incorporate SOM. In the framework of the SMAP single-channel algorithm at vertical polarization (SCA-V), SM retrievals from different dielectric models were derived using an iterative optimization scheme. The skills of the different dielectric models over organic soils were reflected by the performance of their respective SM retrievals, which was measured by four conventional statistical metrics, calculated by comparing satellite-based SM time series with in-situ benchmarks. Overall, SM retrievals of organic-soil-based dielectric models tended to overestimate, while those from mineral-soil-based models displayed dry biases. All the models showed comparable values of unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) and Pearson Correlation (R), but Mironov 2019 exhibited a slight but consistent edge over the others. An integrated consideration of the model inputs, the physical basis, and the validated accuracy indicated that the separate use of Mironov 2009 and Mironov 2019 in the SMAP SCA-V for mineral soils (SOM < 15%) and organic soils (SOM ≥ 15%) would be the preferred option.

Soil Moisture↗

NASA NTRS1983

A static model of chromospheric heating in solar flares

The response of the solar chromosphere to flare processes, namely nonthermal electrons, thermal conduction, and coronal pressure, is modeled. Finite difference methods employing linearization and iteration are used in obtaining simultaneous solutions to the equations of steady-state energy balance, hydrostatic equilibrium, radiative transfer, and atomic statistical equilibrium. The atmospheric response is assumed to be confined to one dimension by a strong vertical magnetic field. A solution is obtained to the radiative transfer equation for the most important optically thick transitions of hydrogen, magnesium, and calcium. The theoretical atmospheres discussed here are seen as elucidating the role of various physical processes in establishing the structure of flare chromospheres. At low coronal pressures, conduction is found to be more important than nonthermal electrons in establishing the position of the transition region. Only thermal conduction can adequately account for the chromospheric evaporation in compact flares. Of the mechanisms considered, only nonthermal electrons bring about significant heating below the flare transition region.

Ricchiazzi, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Giovanni: A System for Rapid Access, Visualization and Analysis of Earth Science Data Online

Collecting data and understanding data structures traditionally are the first steps that a user must take, before the core investigation can begin. This is a time-consuming and challenging task, especially when science objectives require users to deal with large multi-sensor data that are usually in different formats and internal structures. The Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has created the GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and ANalysis Infrastructure, Giovanni, to enable Web-based visualization and analysis of satellite remotely sensed meteorological, oceanographic, and hydrologic data sets, without users having to download data. The current operational Giovanni interfaces provide the capability to process a number of important satellite measurements, such as (1) ozone and other trace gases from TOMS, OMI, HALOE, and MLS; (2) air temperature, water vapor, and geopotential height from AIRS; (3) aerosols from MODIS TerrdAqua, and GOCART model; (4) precipitation from TRMM and ground measurements; (5) chlorophyll and other ocean color products from SeaWiFS and MODIS Aqua; and (6) sea surface temperature from MODIS Aqua. Depending on the input data structure, the system provides simple statistical analysis and creates time-averaged area plot, area-averaged time series, animations, Hovmoller latitude vs. time and longitude vs. time plots, as well as vertical profiles. The inter-comparison interfaces allow a user to compare observations from different instruments, to conduct anomaly analysis, and to study basic relationships between physical parameters. Giovanni handles data with different temporal and spatial resolutions and, thus, enables both regional and global long-term climate research and short-term special events investigation, as well as data validations and assessments. Because of its simplicity of usage, Giovanni is powerful and versatile, able to assist a wide range of users, from the discipline scientists conducting preliminary research in various fields, to students in the classroom learning about weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. Giovanni can be accessed from: http://disc. esfc.nasa.gov/techlab/giovanni/index.shtml

Shen, S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Solar Flare and Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP 3 )

Solar activity is a primary factor determining the state of the Earth’s space environment, geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, and radiation hazards. In the current state of knowledge, machine learning (ML) methods provide essential tools for processing data, investigating relationships among various physical properties and characteristics, uncovering hidden connections, and predicting hazardous solar events. The primary difficulty in developing and applying modern machine-learning tools in heliophysics is that the essential data are scattered among over a hundred data repositories developed by instrument teams of space missions and ground-based observatories. In addition, statistical and ML methods require long time series of homogeneous measurements. To facilitate ML-ready data preparation and access, we have developed an interactive database of solar flares integrating the most essential datasets (https://solarflare.njit.edu/). The database performs an initial data processing and is automatically updated. In addition, we are developing the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3, https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow users to retrieve the database records. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. The interactive widget can display soft X-ray and proton flux time series from GOES satellites and the flare records. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of solar proton events and investigate machine-learning approaches to SEP prediction.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS1980

An analysis of short pulse and dual frequency radar techniques for measuring ocean wave spectra from satellites

Scanning beam microwave radars were used to measure ocean wave directional spectra from satellites. In principle, surface wave spectral resolution in wave number can be obtained using either short pulse (SP) or dual frequency (DF) techniques; in either case, directional resolution obtains naturally as a consequence of a Bragg-like wave front matching. A four frequency moment characterization of backscatter from the near vertical using physical optics in the high frequency limit was applied to an analysis of the SP and DF measurement techniques. The intrinsic electromagnetic modulation spectrum was to the first order in wave steepness proportional to the large wave directional slope spectrum. Harmonic distortion was small and was a minimum near 10 deg incidence. NonGaussian wave statistics can have an effect comparable to that in the second order of scattering from a normally distributed sea surface. The SP technique is superior to the DF technique in terms of measurement signal to noise ratio and contrast ratio.

Jackson, F. C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Climatology and natural variability of the global hydrologic cycle in the GLA atmospheric general circulation model

Time average climatology and low-frequency variabilities of the global hydrologic cycle (GHC) in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) were investigated in the present work. A 730-day experiment was conducted with the GLA GCM forced by insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow undergoing climatological annual cycles. Ifluences of interactive soil moisture on time average climatology and natural variability of the GHC were also investigated by conducting 365-day experiments with and without interactive soil moisture. Insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow were fixed at their July levels in the latter two experiments. Results show that the model's time average hydrologic cycle variables for July in all three experiments agree reasonably well with observations. Except in the case of precipitable water, the zonal average climates of the annual cycle experiment and the two perpetual July experiments are alike, i.e., their differences are within limits of the natural variability of the model's climate. Statistics of various components of the GHC, i.e., water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation, are significantly affected by the presence of interactive soil moisture. A long-term trend is found in the principal empirical modes of variability of ground wetness, evaporation, and sensible heat. Dominant modes of variability of these quantities over land are physically consistent with one another and with land surface energy balance requirements. The dominant mode of precipitation variability is found to be closely related to organized convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The precipitation variability has timescales in the range of 2 to 3 months and can be identified with the stationary component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The precipitation mode is not sensitive to the presence of interactive soil moisture but is closely linked to both the rotational and divergent components of atmospheric moisture transport. The present results indicate that globally coherent natural variability of the GHC in the GLA GCM has two basic timescales in the absence of annual cycles of external forcings: a long-term trend associated with atmosphere-soil moisture interaction which affects the model atmosphere mostly over midlatitude continental regions and a large-scale 2- to 3-month variability associated with atmospheric moist processes over the western Pacific Ocean.

Lau, K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A statistical evaluation and comparison of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data and corresponding rawinsonde measurements

The mesoscale accuracy of GOES Visible/IR Spin-Scan-Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) temperature profiles and mean-precipitable-water measurements obtained over central Texas on March 6, 1982, is evaluated on the basis of comparing them with three-hourly rawinsonde data (up to 100 mbar) of similar spatial resolution for the same area and time. The VAS data comprise three sets: physical retrievals by the method of Smith (1970), modified physical retrievals by the method of Smith (1983), and regression soundings (incorporating some rawinsonde data) by the method of Lee et al. (1983). The data are presented graphically, and all three VAS data sets are found to have similar temperature biases, which vary from hot to cold with altitude and are apparently related to major inversions. Systematic moisture biases are seen in the physical and modified physical data sets, while the regression soundings are relatively unbiased but do not accurately reproduce moisture gradients seen in the rawinsonde data.

Jedlovec, G. J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Radiation and attenuation of waves in a random medium

The physical mechanisms of excess attenuation are analyzed on the basis of a one-dimensional time-independent model of propagation in a random medium. Attenuation is regarded as the rate of decrease in the mean intensity and the mean energy flux within a propagation range. A source function is assumed to be determinate, appropriate statistical properties are chosen for the sound speed, and specified statistical properties are found for the wave functions, i.e., the mean intensity and the mean energy flux. The medium is considered to be weakly homogeneous, and expansions are developed for the intensity and mean energy flux, along with an attenuation coefficient in two parts, the second of which defines the excess attenuation. The mean radiated power is defined, and backscattering by the random inhomogeneities in the medium is modeled as redistributing the mean intensity and energy flux, with a resultant decay which occurs more quickly than with randomness.

Wenzel, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Implications of chaos, scale-invariance, and fractal statistics in geology

A set of three nonlinear total differential equations (Lorenz equations) exhibiting deterministic chaos is considered, and it is shown that these equations demonstrate that deterministic equations with deterministic initial conditions can yield stocastic solutions with fractal statistics. The logistic map, fractal distributions, and fragmentation are discussed. It is pointed out that well-defined fractal distributions of earthquakes are found both regionally and globally, and that the general applicability of the fractal relation for seismicity can provide the basis for a quantitative seismic hazard assessment. It is suggested that the governing physics of erosional topography is nonlinear and may be related to a fractal distribution of storms and floods that generate and renew erosional feature such as gullies and drainage systems.

Turcotte, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Investigation of radiative interaction in laminar flows using Monte Carlo simulation

The Monte Carlo method (MCM) is employed to study the radiative interactions in fully developed laminar flow between two parallel plates. Taking advantage of the characteristics of easy mathematical treatment of the MCM, a general numerical procedure is developed for nongray radiative interaction. The nongray model is based on the statistical narrow band model with an exponential-tailed inverse intensity distribution. To validate the Monte Carlo simulation for nongray radiation problems, the results of radiative dissipation from the MCM are compared with two available solutions for a given temperature profile between two plates. After this validation, the MCM is employed to solve the present physical problem and results for the bulk temperature are compared with available solutions. In general, good agreement is noted and reasons for some discrepancies in certain ranges of parameters are explained.

Liu, Jiwen↗

NASA NTRS1994

Bio-optical and physical variability in the subarctic North Atlantic Ocean during the spring of 1989

A unique set of physical, bio-optical, and meteorological observations were made from a mooring located in the open ocean south of Iceland (59 deg 29.5 min N, 20 deg 49.8 min W) from April 13 to June 12 1989. The present measurements are apparently the first to resolve the rapid transition to springtime physical and biological conditions at such a high latitude site. Our data were collected with bio-optical and physical moored systems every few minutes. The abrupt onset of springtime stratification was observed with the mixed layer shoaling from approximately 550 m to approximately 50 m in approximately 5 days. During this period a major phytoplankton bloom occurred with a tenfold increase in near-surface chlorophyll concentration in less than 3 weeks. Our statistical analysis indicates that the velocity shear in the upper layer is driven primarily by local wind stress. Mesoscale variability is also apparent from these and concurrent airborne oceangraphic lidar observations. Our complementary modeling results suggest that the near-surface layer may be reasonably well described by a one-dimensional model and that the spring bloom was initiated during incipient near-surface restratification.

Dickey, T.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

In a 17 vector magnetogram study of 12 bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2002, ApJ in press), we correlated four quantitative global magnetic measures with the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) productivity of the active region. The global measures included a measure of active region size, the total magnetic flux phi and three measures of an active region global nonpotentiality 1) the net current (I (sub N)), 2) the length of the strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (L(sub SS)) and 3) and the normalized twist (alpha = muIN/PHI). The CME productivity was determined from YOHKOH/SXT observations, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and when possible Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (SOHO/LASCO) observations within 12 days of the day of the magnetogram. We found that the three measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub SS), alpha) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity. The sample size was to small to confirm if there was a statistical significant correlation of the globally nonscientist measures with future CME activity (i.e. from the date of the magnetogram forward). We are doubling our sample, and will report on the statistical significance of global nonpotentiality as a predictor of future CME productivity. The new active regions are all from the first year of the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograms. This work, is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program, by NASA through the Living with the Star, Targeted Research and Technology, and by NASA Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program. The upgrade to the MSFC vector magnetograph was supported by the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) mission.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Variational Continuous Assimilation of TMI and SSM/I Rain Rates: Impact on GEOS-3 Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

We describe a variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall data using moisture and temperature tendency corrections as the control variable to offset model deficiencies. For rainfall assimilation, model errors are of special concern since model-predicted precipitation is based on parameterized moist physics, which can have substantial systematic errors. This study examines whether a VCA scheme using the forecast model as a weak constraint offers an effective pathway to precipitation assimilation. The particular scheme we exarnine employs a '1+1' dimension precipitation observation operator based on a 6-h integration of a column model of moist physics from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system DAS). In earlier studies, we tested a simplified version of this scheme and obtained improved monthly-mean analyses and better short-range forecast skills. This paper describes the full implementation ofthe 1+1D VCA scheme using background and observation error statistics, and examines how it may improve GEOS analyses and forecasts of prominent tropical weather systems such as hurricanes. Parallel assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd show that assimilating 6-h TMI and SSM/I surfice rain rates leads to more realistic storm features in the analysis, which, in turn, provide better initial conditions for 5-day storm track prediction and precipitation forecast. These results provide evidence that addressing model deficiencies in moisture tendency may be crucial to making effective use of precipitation information in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗