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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Stochastic Analysis of Orbital Lifetimes of Spacecraft

A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.

Sasamoto, Washito↗
NASA NTRS1995

New model of iron spectra in the extreme ultraviolet and application to SERTS and EUV observations: A solar active region and capella

We report new predictions for the EUV spectral emission of FeIX-FeXXIV, based on data now available from the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) and the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) spectrometers. The iron spectral emission model is the first result of a larger effort to revise the Raymond & Smith model and to update the atomic rates. We present here predicted emissivities for selected densities and temperatures applicable to various astrophysical plasmas. Comparisons of our predicted spectra with two recent observations provide important tests of the atomic data. They also test to some extent some basic assumptions of coronal emission codes: optically thin spectral lines and ionization equilibrium.

Brickhouse, N. S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Shuttle radiation dose measurements in the International Space Station orbits

The International Space Station (ISS) is now a reality with the start of a permanent human presence on board. Radiation presents a serious risk to the health and safety of the astronauts, and there is a clear requirement for estimating their exposures prior to and after flights. Predictions of the dose rate at times other than solar minimum or solar maximum have not been possible, because there has been no method to calculate the trapped-particle spectrum at intermediate times. Over the last few years, a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) has been flown at a fixed mid-deck location on board the Space Shuttle in 51.65 degrees inclination flights. These flights have provided data that cover the expected changes in the dose rates due to changes in altitude and changes in solar activity from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of the current 23rd solar cycle. Based on these data, a simple function of the solar deceleration potential has been derived that can be used to predict the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) dose rates to within +/-10%. For altitudes to be covered by the ISS, the dose rate due to the trapped particles is found to be a power-law function, rho(-2/3), of the atmospheric density, rho. This relationship can be used to predict trapped dose rates inside these spacecraft to +/-10% throughout the solar cycle. Thus, given the shielding distribution for a location inside the Space Shuttle or inside an ISS module, this approach can be used to predict the combined GCR + trapped dose rate to better than +/-15% for quiet solar conditions.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity as a Function of Time Relative to Corotating Interaction Regions

Corotating interaction regions during the declining phase of the solar cycle are the cause of recurrent geomagnetic storms and are responsible for the generation of high fluxes of relativistic electrons. These regions are produced by the collision of a high-speed stream of solar wind with a slow-speed stream. The interface between the two streams is easily identified with plasma and field data from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth. The properties of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are systematic functions of time relative to the stream interface. Consequently the coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere produces a predictable sequence of events. Because the streams persist for many solar rotations it should be possible to use terrestrial observations of past magnetic activity to predict future activity. Also the high-speed streams are produced by large unipolar magnetic regions on the Sun so that empirical models can be used to predict the velocity profile of a stream expected at the Earth. In either case knowledge of the statistical properties of the solar wind and geomagnetic activity as a function of time relative to a stream interface provides the basis for medium term forecasting of geomagnetic activity. In this report we use lists of stream interfaces identified in solar wind data during the years 1995 and 2004 to develop probability distribution functions for a variety of different variables as a function of time relative to the interface. The results are presented as temporal profiles of the quartiles of the cumulative probability distributions of these variables. We demonstrate that the storms produced by these interaction regions are generally very weak. Despite this the fluxes of relativistic electrons produced during those storms are the highest seen in the solar cycle. We attribute this to the specific sequence of events produced by the organization of the solar wind relative to the stream interfaces. We also show that there are large quantitative differences in various parameters between the two cycles.

McPherron, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Gamma ray lines from solar flares

The strongest line, both predicted theoretically and detected observationally at 2.2 MeV, is due to neutron capture by protons in the photosphere. The neutrons are produced in nuclear reactions of flare accelerated particles which also positrons and prompt nuclear gamma rays. From the comparison of the observed and calculated intensities of the lines at 4.4 or 6.1 MeV to that of the 2.2 MeV line, it is possible to deduce the spectrum of accelerated nuclei in the flare region; and from the absolute intensities of these lines, it is possible to obtain the total number of accelerated nuclei at the sun. The study of the 2.2 MeV line also gives information on the amount of He-3 in the photosphere. The study of the line at 0.51 MeV resulting from positron annihilation complements the data obtained from the other lines; in addition it gives information on the temperature and density in the annihilation region.

Ramaty, R.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Chemical condensation sequences in supernova ejecta

Equilibrium condensation is investigated for composition and pressures representative of supernova (SN) ejecta. The results are compared with those obtained for the solar nebula, and the distribution of elements among the various gaseous species and solid phases is computed for solar and SN-shell condensation sequences. The data are applied to problems concerning the observed mass fractionations of Si, Mg, and O in Allende, as well as to the strong depletion of heavy-element abundances in the interstellar medium. The results indicate that dust grains from a SN could have introduced isotopic anomalies into the solar nebula, that many minerals produced in SN ejecta are the same as those predicted to be stable in the solar nebula, and that the observed depletion of heavy elements in the interstellar gas could be due to dust formation in SN ejecta.

Lattimer, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

What Do Halo Cmes Tell Us About Solar Cycle 25?

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2007

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-latitude Ionosphere

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere are important tasks of US Space Weather Program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method, and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two of the main elements of such prediction scheme are: an appropriate geomagnetic activity index, and an appropriate coupling function (the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity). We have developed a new index of geomagnetic activity, the Polar Magnetic (PM) index and an improved version of solar wind coupling function. PM index is similar to the existing polar cap PC index but it shows much better correlation with upstream solar wind/IMF data and other events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. We investigate the correlation of PM index with upstream solar wind/IMF data for 10 years (1995-2004) that include both low and high solar activity. We also have introduced a new prediction function for the predicting of cross-polar-cap voltage and Joule heating based on using both PM index and upstream solar wind/IMF data. As we show such prediction function significantly increase the reliability of prediction of these important parameters. The correlation coefficients between the actual and predicted values of these parameters are approx. 0.9 and higher.

Khazanov, George V.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermomechanical Modeling and Analysis of a High-Temperature Light Trapping Planar Cavity Receiver

Solar energy harnessed through concentrating solar power (CSP) systems offers a promising path to sustainable energy production, with the efficiency and longevity of these systems relying on key components like solar receivers. This study analyzes the thermomechanical behavior of an innovative enclosed light-trapping solar receiver optimized for particle heating applications. The receiver utilizes sheet metal alloys to form enclosed cavities that reflect and trap incoming solar flux, as well as enclosed channels that contain fluidized particle beds absorbing solar heat. Finite element analysis (FEA) is applied to predict the receiver's thermomechanical performance under extreme solar flux conditions. Temperature distributions from a thermal model simulating a multi-panel assembly at steady state are input into the FEA thermomechanical model for stress analysis. A key aspect of the analysis focuses on evaluating creep-fatigue damage, with a design target of achieving a 30- year service life. Various stress relief techniques are also proposed to extend the receiver's service life. The results highlight the significant impact of the particle-to-wall heat transfer coefficients (HTCs), ranging from 800 W/m2*K to 1400 W/m2*K. The 800 W/m2*K case shows a maximum von Mises stress of 164 MPa, while the 1400 W/m2*K case reduces it to 150 MPa. The creep life increases from 4,000 hrs in the 800 W/m2*K case to over 100,000 hrs in the 1400 W/m2*K case with Inconel 740H used, indicating that higher HTCs reduce stress and extend lifespan. This research advances the design of high-efficiency, low-stress solar receivers for particle-based thermal energy storage in CSP and industrial heating applications.

concentrating solar power↗
NASA NTRS2013

Lessons Learned from the Stardust Sample Return Mission

These are science and mission design and operations lessons learned from the Stardust Mission, which returned grains from comet Wild-2 and fresh interstellar dust to Earth in 2006 [1]. Science Lessons: Major discoveries of the Stardust Wild-2 samples include the presence of numerous chondrules and CAI in a comet, which requires a much more dynamic early solar system than many had envisaged, and verified predictions made by models requiring outward flow of early solar system solids before the early nebular gas had dissipated [1-3]. No evidence has been found for the presence of live Al-26 in the comet, suggesting late accretion [4]. Carbonates and unusual sulfides were found which potentially require activity of liquid water within the comet, but to only a minor degree at best [5-6]. The presence of abundant thermally-metamorphosed silicates in Wild-2 appears to require assembly from an earlier generation of bodies [7]. The abundance of presolar grains in the Wild-2 samples appears to be below what has been found in most chondritic IDPs and primitive chondrites [1]. The bulk mineralogy of Wild-2 grains does not match the mineralogy from any single other known astromaterial [7], and is also strikingly unlike that inferred from Spitzer Telescope spectra of Comet Temple 1 dust [8]. Amino acids and other fragile organics have been detected among the Wild-2 samples [9], which highlights the critical importance of further developing techniques for organic analysis in small samples, and cleaning outbound spacecraft.

Zolensky, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather Modeling and Prediction for Intermediate Time-scales

Much of solar activity within a sunspot cycle occurs as bursts, or 'seasons' of strong activity over several months, separated by periods of much less activity. The most important space weather effects occur during these bursts. Previous modeling and forecasting efforts have focused on time-scales of hours-to-days and decades-to-centuries. The recent discovery of Rossby waves in the Sun, together with recently developed global models of solar MHD Rossby waves and their interactions with differential rotation and spot-producing magnetic fields, reveal the opportunity to simulate and predict the occurrence, strength and location of enhanced activity bursts a few weeks up to several months in advance. We now have a golden opportunity to fill in this gap in time-scales of forecasting space weather. This requires a) continuous observations of solar Rossby waves by various techniques; b) development of coupled nonlinear MHD models that simulate both global Rossby waves and the much smaller spatial scale emergence of new active regions; c) application of advanced data assimilation techniques to couple surface observations to update the model-system to integrate forward in time for creating forecasts months ahead. Then it will be possible to build operational prediction models to meet the needs of customers and stakeholders, including support of future NASA missions, regarding what kind and level of space weather to expect a few weeks to several months ahead.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2022

Interrogating Solar Flare Loop Models With IRIS Observations 1: Overview of the Models, and Mass Flows

Solar flares are transient yet dramatic events in the atmosphere of the Sun, during which a vast amount of magnetic energy is liberated. This energy is subsequently transported through the solar atmosphere or into the heliosphere, and together with coronal mass ejections flares comprise a fundamental component of space weather. Thus, understanding the physical processes at play in flares is vital. That understanding often requires the use of forward modelling in order to predict the hydrodynamic and radiative response of the solar atmosphere. Those predictions must then be critiqued by observations to show us where our models are missing ingredients. While flares are of course 3D phenomenon, simulating the flaring atmosphere including an accurate chromosphere with the required spatial scales in 3D is largely beyond current computational capabilities, and certainly performing parameter studies of energy transport mechanisms is not yet tractable in 3D. Therefore, field-aligned 1D loop models that can resolve the relevant scales have a crucial role to play in advancing our knowledge of flares. In recent years, driven in part by the spectacular observations from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), flare loop models have revealed many interesting features of flares. For this review I highlight some important results that illustrate the utility of attacking the problem of solar flares with a combination of high quality observations, and state-of-the-art flare loop models, demonstrating: 1) how models help to interpret flare observations from IRIS, 2) how those observations show us where we are missing physics from our models, and 3) how the ever increasing quality of solar observations drives model improvements. Here in Paper one of this two part review I provide an overview of modern flare loop models, and of electron-beam driven mass flows during solar flares.

solar flares↗
NASA NTRS1978

Local and global processes which impact solar wind electrons

A detailed first principle kinetic theory for solar wind electrons which is neither fluid not exospheric in nature is presented. The global and local properties of the solar wind expansion and coulomb collisions that are reflected in the observed electron velocity distribution function are: its bifurcation, skewness, and the differential temperatures of the thermal and suprathermal subpopulations. Predictions of correlations amongst electron solar wind parameters which were previously reported are shown.

Scudder, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Dynamic analysis of space-related linear and non-linear structures

In order to be cost effective, space structures must be extremely light weight, and subsequently, very flexible structures. The power system for Space Station Freedom is such a structure. Each array consists of a deployable truss mast and a split blanket of photovoltaic solar collectors. The solar arrays are deployed in orbit, and the blanket is stretched into position as the mast is extended. Geometric stiffness due to the preload make this an interesting non-linear problem. The space station will be subjected to various dynamic loads, during shuttle docking, solar tracking, attitude adjustment, etc. Accurate prediction of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the space station components, including the solar arrays, is critical for determining the structural adequacy of the components, and for designing a dynamic controls system. The process used in developing and verifying the finite element dynamic model of the photo-voltaic arrays is documented. Various problems were identified, such as grounding effects due to geometric stiffness, large displacement effects, and pseudo-stiffness (grounding) due to lack of required rigid body modes. Analysis techniques, such as development of rigorous solutions using continuum mechanics, finite element solution sequence altering, equivalent systems using a curvature basis, Craig-Bampton superelement approach, and modal ordering schemes were utilized. The grounding problems associated with the geometric stiffness are emphasized.

Bosela, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Dynamic analysis of space-related linear and non-linear structures

In order to be cost effective, space structures must be extremely light weight, and subsequently, very flexible structures. The power system for Space Station Freedom is such a structure. Each array consists of a deployable truss mast and a split blanket of photo-voltaic solar collectors. The solar arrays are deployed in orbit, and the blanket is stretched into position as the mast is extended. Geometric stiffness due to the preload make this an interesting non-linear problem. The space station will be subjected to various dynamic loads, during shuttle docking, solar tracking, attitude adjustment, etc. Accurate prediction of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the space station components, including the solar arrays, is critical for determining the structural adequacy of the components, and for designing a dynamic control system. The process used in developing and verifying the finite element dynamic model of the photo-voltaic arrays is documented. Various problems were identified, such as grounding effects due to geometric stiffness, large displacement effects, and pseudo-stiffness (grounding) due to lack of required rigid body modes. Analysis techniques, such as development of rigorous solutions using continuum mechanics, finite element solution sequence altering, equivalent systems using a curvature basis, Craig-Bampton superelement approach, and modal ordering schemes were utilized. The grounding problems associated with the geometric stiffness are emphasized.

Bosela, Paul A.↗