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Modeling the Swift BAT trigger algorithm with machine learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift/BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of ≳97% (≲3% error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux, which has an accuracy of 89.6% (10.4% error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of n{sub 0}∼0.48{sub −0.23}{sup +0.41} Gpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1} with power-law indices of n{sub 1}∼1.7{sub −0.5}{sup +0.6} and n{sub 2}∼−5.9{sub −0.1}{sup +5.7} for GRBs above and below a break point of z{sub 1}∼6.8{sub −3.2}{sup +2.8}. This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for Time Reversal Symmetry Violation with TREK at J-PARC (Closeout Report)

This DOE Early Career Award has enabled Dr. Michael Kohl to take on and expand his leadership roles in several projects such as TREK@J-PARC, OLYMPUS@DESY, MUSE@PSI, and in the experimental program in Hall C at Jefferson Lab. Dr. Kohl has successfully accomplished several items: (i) Preliminary results from SANE (E08-003) at Jefferson Lab: Former HU graduate student Anusha Liyanage has pursued her PhD research on SANE. Her analysis of the elastic ep scattering data has resulted in the extraction of the proton electric-to-magnetic form factor ratio from double spin asymmetries at the highest momentum transfer to date. The results are almost final and a publication is in preparation. (ii) Approval of TREK/E36 for running, preparation of simulation and analysis: the TREK experiment has been stage-II approved in fall 2013, has been mounted on the hall floor from November 2014 to April 2015, has been commissioned in April-June 2015 and is scheduled to run in fall 2015. The group has contributed significantly with simulations and magnetic field map calculations, has investigated the sensitivity of TREK to new light neutral particles, and contributed substantially to the mounting and commissioning of the experiment. (iii) Running of OLYMPUS and analysis: Under Dr. Kohl's leadership as spokesman, the OLYMPUS experiment has completed data taking beginning of 2013; calibrations and analysis have been well underway, with results to be expected in the course of 2015. (iv) Operation of GEM detectors at OLYMPUS and MUSE: The GEM telescopes built for OLYMPUS luminosity monitoring with forward-angle ep elastic scattering have been operated successfully, have meanwhile been relocated to PSI, and have been re-commissioned as beam particle trackers for the PSI secondary beams for MUSE. (v) Trained and prepared postdocs and graduate students for their future careers. Two postdocs from Dr. Kohl's group (Dr. Juergen Diefenbach and Dr. Peter Monaghan) have found permanent academic positions. Two former graduate students of the group have graduated and received their PhD degrees in nuclear physics (Dr. Anusha Liyanage and Dr. Ozgur Ates). In particular, this award has enabled Dr. Kohl to pursue the TREK project (Time Reversal Experiment with Kaons) at J-PARC, which he has been leading and advancing as International Spokesperson. Originally proposed as a search for time reversal symmetry violation, the project has evolved into a precision test of lepton flavor universality in the Standard Model along with sensitive searches for physics beyond the Standard Model through a possible discovery of new particles such as a sterile neutrino or a neutral gauge boson from the hidden sector in the mass region up to 300 MeV/c2. Experiment TREK/E36, first proposed in 2010, has been mounted between November 2014 and April 2015, and commissioning with beam has been started in April 2015, with production running anticipated in early summer and late fall 2015. It uses the apparatus from the previous KEK/E-246 experiment with partial upgrades to measure the ratio of decay widths of leptonic two-body decays of the charged kaon to µν and eν, respectively, which is highly sensitive to the ratio of electromagnetic charged lepton couplings and possible new physics processes that could differentiate between μ and e, hence breaking lepton flavor universality of the Standard Model. Through the searches for neutral massive particles, TREK/E36 can severely constrain any new physics scenarios designed to explain the proton radius puzzle.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Towards Precision Photometric Type ia Supernova Cosmology With Machine Learning

The revolutionary discovery of dark energy and accelerating cosmic expansion was made with just 42 type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in 1999. Since then, large synoptic surveys, e.g., Dark Energy Survey (DES), have observed thousands more SNe Ia and the upcoming Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and Roman Space Telescope promise to deliver millions in the next decade. This unprecedented data volume can produce the required precision to unambiguously test concordance cosmology which could represent a monumental shift in our understanding of dark energy and its role in cosmic history. However, extracting a pure SN Ia sample with accurate redshifts for such a large dataset will be a challenge. Specifically, spectroscopic classification will not be possible for the vast majority of discovered objects, and only ~25% will have spectroscopic redshifts. This thesis presents a series of observational and methodological studies designed to address the questions associated with this new era of photometric SN Ia cosmology. First, we present a machine learning method for photometric classification of SNe, Supernova Classification with a COnvolutional Neural Network (SCONE). Photometric classification enables SNe with no spectroscopic information to be confidently categorized, and is a critical component of current and future analysis pipelines. SCONE achieves >99% accuracy distinguishing simulated SNe Ia from non-Ia SNe, and has been integrated into DES, LSST, and Roman analysis pipelines. We also demonstrate the efficacy of SCONE on early-time photometric classification, which will be vital for optimal allocation of spectroscopic resources. We show that SCONE can distinguish between 6 SN types with 75% accuracy on the night of initial discovery, comparable to results in the literature for full-phase SNe. Next, we study current methods for estimating SN Ia redshifts and propose a machine learning alternative that uses SN photometry alone to extract redshift information. Most SNe Ia inherit redshift information from their host galaxy, but the process of matching SNe to the correct host galaxy can be challenging. We systematically analyze the impact of incorrect redshifts from host galaxy mismatch on 5 years of DES SN data, and conclude that improved host matching or redshift estimation methods can reduce our systematic errors by ~10%. In response to this finding, we present a SN photometry-only method for estimating redshifts independent of host galaxy information, Photo-zSNthesis. We show that Photo-zSNthesis redshift estimates are accurate to within 2% across the full redshift range of LSST, a first in the literature. Finally, we focus on the robustness of machine learning (ML) algorithms for real-world and scientific applications. ML models generalize poorly beyond their training set and often experience severe performance degradation when deployed on new data. We demonstrate a general method for improving robustness that achieves new state-of-the-art results on astronomical object classification, wildlife identification, and tumor detection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Image segmentation for analyzing galaxy-galaxy strong lensing systems

The goal of this Letter is to develop a machine learning model to analyze the main gravitational lens and detect dark substructure (subhalos) within simulated images of strongly lensed galaxies. Using the technique of image segmentation, we turn the task of identifying subhalos into a classification problem, where we label each pixel in an image as coming from the main lens, a subhalo within a binned mass range, or neither. Our network is only trained on images with a single smooth lens and either zero or one subhalo near the Einstein ring. On an independent test set with lenses with large ellipticities, quadrupole and octopole moments, and for source apparent magnitudes between 17–25, the area of the main lens is recovered accurately. On average, only 1.3% of the true area is missed and 1.2% of the true area is added to another part of the lens. In addition, subhalos as light as 10 8.5 M ⊙ can be detected if they lie in bright pixels along the Einstein ring. Furthermore, the model is able to generalize to new contexts it has not been trained on, such as locating multiple subhalos with varying masses or more than one large smooth lens.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CATS-based Air Traffic Controller Agents

This report describes intelligent agents that function as air traffic controllers. Each agent controls traffic in a single sector in real time; agents controlling traffic in adjoining sectors can coordinate to manage an arrival flow across a given meter fix. The purpose of this research is threefold. First, it seeks to study the design of agents for controlling complex systems. In particular, it investigates agent planning and reactive control functionality in a dynamic environment in which a variety perceptual and decision making skills play a central role. It examines how heuristic rules can be applied to model planning and decision making skills, rather than attempting to apply optimization methods. Thus, the research attempts to develop intelligent agents that provide an approximation of human air traffic controller behavior that, while not based on an explicit cognitive model, does produce task performance consistent with the way human air traffic controllers operate. Second, this research sought to extend previous research on using the Crew Activity Tracking System (CATS) as the basis for intelligent agents. The agents use a high-level model of air traffic controller activities to structure the control task. To execute an activity in the CATS model, according to the current task context, the agents reference a 'skill library' and 'control rules' that in turn execute the pattern recognition, planning, and decision-making required to perform the activity. Applying the skills enables the agents to modify their representation of the current control situation (i.e., the 'flick' or 'picture'). The updated representation supports the next activity in a cycle of action that, taken as a whole, simulates air traffic controller behavior. A third, practical motivation for this research is to use intelligent agents to support evaluation of new air traffic control (ATC) methods to support new Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. Current approaches that use large, human-in-the-loop simulations are unquestionably valuable for this purpose, but pose considerable logistical, fiscal, and experimental control problems. First, data analysis is extremely complicated, owing simply to the large number of participants and data sources in such simulations. In addition, experienced human air traffic controllers working adjacent sectors tend to flexibly adapt to the evolving control problem - potentially shifting to other strategies than those under investigation. In addition, their performance is tightly coupled to the control interface, which in the development phase may support some concepts and supporting strategies better than others. A simple shift in strategy by one controller can change the character of a particular traffic scenario dramatically, which makes experimental comparison of ATC performance under different traffic scenarios difficult. Training a given team of controllers on operations under a new ATM concept for a sufficient period of time could avert such difficulties, but instituting an adequate training program is expensive and logistically difficult.

Callantine, Todd J.↗

Advanced Methods for Aircraft Engine Thrust and Noise Benefits: Nozzle-Inlet Flow Analysis

The Fluid Mechanics and Acoustics Laboratory at Hampton University (HU/FM&AL) jointly with the NASA Glenn Research Center has conducted four connected subprojects under the reporting project. Basically, the HU/FM&AL Team has been involved in joint research with the purpose of theoretical explanation of experimental facts and creation of accurate numerical simulation techniques and prediction theory for solution of current problems in propulsion systems of interest to the NAVY and NASA agencies. This work is also supported by joint research between the NASA GRC and the Institute of Mechanics at Moscow State University (IM/MSU) in Russia under a CRDF grant. The research is focused on a wide regime of problems in the propulsion field as well as in experimental testing and theoretical and numerical simulation analyses for advanced aircraft and rocket engines. The FM&AL Team uses analytical methods, numerical simulations and possible experimental tests at the Hampton University campus. The fundamental idea uniting these subprojects is to use nontraditional 3D corrugated and composite nozzle and inlet designs and additional methods for exhaust jet noise reduction without essential thrust loss and even with thrust augmentation. These subprojects are: (1) Aeroperformance and acoustics of Bluebell-shaped and Telescope-shaped designs; (2) An analysis of sharp-edged nozzle exit designs for effective fuel injection into the flow stream in air-breathing engines: triangular-round, diamond-round and other nozzles; (3) Measurement technique improvement for the HU Low Speed Wind Tunnel; a new course in the field of aerodynamics, teaching and training of HU students; experimental tests of Mobius-shaped screws: research and training; (4) Supersonic inlet shape optimization. The main outcomes during this reporting period are: (l) Publications: The AIAA Paper #00-3170 was presented at the 36th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference, 17-19 June, 2000, Huntsville, AL. The AIAA Paper #01-1893 has been accepted for the AIAA/NAL-NASDA-ISAS 10th International Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies Conference, 24-27 April 2001, Kyoto, Japan. The AIAA Paper #01 -3204 has been accepted for presentation at the 37th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference, being held on 08-11 July, in Salt Lake City, UT; (2) A U.S. patent #6,082,635 was granted on July 4, 2000; (3) Grants and proposals: The H U/ FM&AL was awarded the NASA grant NAG-3-2495 in October 2000 and the laboratory is a primary U.S. research team in a joint project under the CRDF award granted to the NASA GRC and IM/MSU (Russia) in July 2000; (4) Theory and numerical simulations: Analytical theory, numerical simulation, comparison of theoretical with experimental results, and modification of theoretical approaches, models, grids, etc., have been conducted for several complicated 2D and 3D nozzle and inlet designs using NASA, ICASE, and IM/MSU codes based on full Euler and Navier-Stokes solvers: CFL3D, FLUENT, and GODUNOV, and others; (5) Experimental Tests: (a) A new course: "Advanced Aerodynamics and Aircraft Performance" presented in spring semester, 2001; training and experimental test research using the HU LSWT. (b) Small-scale M6bius-shaped screws were tested in different conditions and their application has shown essential benefits by comparison with traditional designs; (6) Installation in the FM&AL computer system: second software TECPLOT 8.0 for the UNIX SGI workstation and free TECPLOT 7.5 for the PC Dell computer, and 2D and 3D GRIDGEN (version 9) for the UNIX SGI as well as installation of two free NASA codes, 3D MAG and VULCAN; (7) Student Research Activity: Involvement of two undergraduate students as research assistants in the current research project.

Gilinsky, Mikhail↗

Status of the NEAMS and ARC neutronic fast reactor tools integration to the NEAMS Workbench

The Workbench initiative was launched in FY-2017 within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Integration Product Line to facilitate the transition from conventional tools to high-fidelity tools. The Workbench provides a common user interface for model creation, real-time validation, execution, output processing, and visualization for integrated codes. The integration of the Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) suite of codes into the NEAMS Workbench was initiated in FY-2017. The ARC codes contain both legacy codes like DIF3D and REBUS-3 that were developed with over 30 years of experience, and newer NEAMS additions like MC2-3, PERSENT and PROTEUS. The ARC integration into the NEAMS Workbench interface relies on the PyARC module which handles the pre- and post-processing of the native ARC codes input, and the runtime environment. The PyARC module together with the NEAMS Workbench interface are both released under Open Source Software licenses. In FY-2019, the effort focused on integrating the explicit assembly management logic of REBUS, the GAMSOR code for gamma heating transport, and of the NODAL solver of PROTEUS. Additional capabilities were also integrated in response to user requests, such as the assembly power peaking calculation and a 2D result plotting capability. For verification and demonstration purposes, the ARC codes were used through the Workbench for solving the Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (SFR-UAM) benchmark problems, including the newly proposed unit cells and ASTRID problem. Significant effort in FY-2019 focused on training new users from ANL, INL, NCSU, and Westinghouse. In particular, extensive training material was developed in the form of tutorials, including documentation, sample inputs, and associated presentations. The ARC codes are now actively used through the NEAMS Workbench by nuclear engineers at ANL, INL, NCSU, and Westinghouse, for LFR, MSR, micro-reactor, and SFR core design analyses. Future efforts will focus on adding new and existing modeling capabilities available with the ARC and NEAMS codes, training new users and supporting them to continue building user experience.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Characterization of Used Nuclear Fuel with Multivariate Analysis for Process Monitoring

The Multi-Isotope Process (MIP) Monitor combines gamma spectroscopy and multivariate analysis to detect anomalies in various process streams in a nuclear fuel reprocessing system. Measured spectra are compared to models of nominal behavior at each measurement location to detect unexpected changes in system behavior. In order to improve the accuracy and specificity of process monitoring, fuel characterization may be used to more accurately train subsequent models in a full analysis scheme. This paper presents initial development of a reactor-type classifier that is used to select a reactor-specific partial least squares model to predict fuel burnup. Nuclide activities for prototypic used fuel samples were generated in ORIGEN-ARP and used to investigate techniques to characterize used nuclear fuel in terms of reactor type (pressurized or boiling water reactor) and burnup. A variety of reactor type classification algorithms, including k-nearest neighbors, linear and quadratic discriminant analyses, and support vector machines, were evaluated to differentiate used fuel from pressurized and boiling water reactors. Then, reactor type-specific partial least squares models were developed to predict the burnup of the fuel. Using these reactor type-specific models instead of a model trained for all light water reactors improved the accuracy of burnup predictions. The developed classification and prediction models were combined and applied to a large dataset that included eight fuel assembly designs, two of which were not used in training the models, and spanned the range of the initial 235U enrichment, cooling time, and burnup values expected of future commercial used fuel for reprocessing. Error rates were consistent across the range of considered enrichment, cooling time, and burnup values. Average absolute relative errors in burnup predictions for validation data both within and outside the training space were 0.0574% and 0.0597%, respectively. The errors seen in this work are artificially low, because the models were trained, optimized, and tested on simulated, noise-free data. However, these results indicate that the developed models may generalize well to new data and that the proposed approach constitutes a viable first step in developing a fuel characterization algorithm based on gamma spectra.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Lowering the barrier to access information-rich transient kinetic data for machine learning methods

Transient kinetic data contain a wealth of information about intrinsic features of a catalyst as well as the reaction mechanism. Currently, high volume transient data is underutilized, and data science methods could both increase the value of information that can be extracted from this data, integrate experimental with theoretical data sources, and accelerate the pace of catalyst technology advancement. Transient kinetic characterizations with simple probe molecules exhibiting reversible adsorption, irreversible adsorption and bulk-surface diffusion are presented as training components for similar experiments with more complex surface reactions. In conclusion, by increasing the availability and accessibility of transient kinetic data through details of its structure and acquisition, we aim to decrease the barrier for data scientists to apply machine learning methods to this valuable data source.

Catalysis↗

Deep nonparametric estimation of operators between infinite dimensional spaces

Learning operators between infinitely dimensional spaces is an important learning task arising in machine learning, imaging science, mathematical modeling and simulations, etc. This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of Lipschitz operators using deep neural networks. Non-asymptotic upper bounds are derived for the generalization error of the empirical risk minimizer over a properly chosen network class. Under the assumption that the target operator exhibits a low dimensional structure, our error bounds decay as the training sample size increases, with an attractive fast rate depending on the intrinsic dimension in our estimation. Our assumptions cover most scenarios in real applications and our results give rise to fast rates by exploiting low dimensional structures of data in operator estimation. We also investigate the influence of network structures (e.g., network width, depth, and sparsity) on the generalization error of the neural network estimator and propose a general suggestion on the choice of network structures to maximize the learning efficiency quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Searches for New Long-Lived Particles and Upgrade to the ATLAS Inner Detector (Final Technical Report)

The search for new fundamental particles is one of the defining goals of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The discovery of the Higgs Boson by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations provided the capstone of the Standard Model of particle physics, but outstanding questions remain. Why does the Higgs boson have a mass of 125 GeV when its natural mass would be many orders of magnitude larger? Is there a universal symmetry which unites all three forces described by the Standard Model? Can that symmetry be extended to include gravity? Is dark matter, evidenced by astronomical observations, made of a particle that interacts via Standard Model forces with the rest of matter? Together, these motivations provide compelling arguments that new physical processes await discovery. This project addressed some outstanding questions about the fundamental particles and their interactions with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. In particular, the project improved the discovery potential for new, long- lived particles produced via electroweak processes in proton-proton collisions and set world-leading limits on their existence for certain values of their potential mass and lifetime. To achieve this, the project developed new data analysis methods, developed new triggers to select events with new long-lived particles during data-taking of the ATLAS experiment, and analyzed the largest proton–proton collision dataset ever produced. The project also supported significant development of the data acquisition software for the upgrade to the ATLAS inner detector, the Inner TracKer (ITk). The upgrade of the ATLAS inner detector is essential to the success of the entire Phase II physics program on ATLAS. Personnel supported by the project provided support for integration, assembly, and testing of the inner two layers of the ITk pixel system during its prototype and pre-production phase. Four PhD students and two post-doctoral scholars were supported by the grant and received invaluable scientific training as part of the research endeavor. The students and postdocs gained essential professional skills in the areas of advanced data analysis techniques, statistical analysis of data and simulation, programming in C++ and Python, hardware and instrumentation development, and presentation and collaboration skills. Additionally, approximately ten undergraduate students supported through other funding sources participated in research activities synergistic with the goals of this project, receiving essential mentorship from the personnel supported by this project.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

PUFFIn – A user friendly fast interface for calculating and visualizing the dose distribution in materials

This article describes a new graphical user interface that uses the PENELOPE Monte Carlo code to calculate dose distributions in materials. It is named PUFFIn, for the Penelope User-Friendly Fast Interface and was developed as an educational and scoping analysis tool for non-experts in radiation modeling. PUFFIn enables the user to visualize and compare the dose distributions in objects (e.g., sterilized healthcare products) irradiated with cobalt-60 gamma-rays, electron beam (E-beam) or X-rays. From such comparisons, the user can determine the most efficient product and/or packaging designs for any given radiation field – whether for conceptual or existing products and packaging. PUFFIn is distributed in a complete, self-contained package of software, including the PENELOPE radiation transport code, a standard graphics package, and a set of simple exercises. The package is available to any user at no cost and requires a minimal amount of training compared to other similar software. PUFFIn's capabilities are described, as well as validation measurements performed at Texas A&M University E-beam facility and the Aerial E-beam Facility in France.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Cannon: A data-driven approach to stellar label determination

New spectroscopic surveys offer the promise of stellar parameters and abundances (“stellar labels”) for hundreds of thousands of stars; this poses a formidable spectral modeling challenge. In many cases, there is a subset of reference objects for which the stellar labels are known with high(er) fidelity. We take advantage of this with The Cannon, a new data-driven approach for determining stellar labels from spectroscopic data. The Cannon learns from the “known” labels of reference stars how the continuum-normalized spectra depend on these labels by fitting a flexible model at each wavelength; then, The Cannon uses this model to derive labels for the remaining survey stars. We illustrate The Cannon by training the model on only 542 stars in 19 clusters as reference objects, with T{sub eff}, log g, and [Fe/H] as the labels, and then applying it to the spectra of 55,000 stars from APOGEE DR10. The Cannon is very accurate. Its stellar labels compare well to the stars for which APOGEE pipeline (ASPCAP) labels are provided in DR10, with rms differences that are basically identical to the stated ASPCAP uncertainties. Beyond the reference labels, The Cannon makes no use of stellar models nor any line-list, but needs a set of reference objects that span label-space. The Cannon performs well at lower signal-to-noise, as it delivers comparably good labels even at one-ninth the APOGEE observing time. We discuss the limitations of The Cannon and its future potential, particularly, to bring different spectroscopic surveys onto a consistent scale of stellar labels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NORM Concentration Determination in Common Materials in an Urban Environment

The United States government performs searches for illicit radiation sources before and during large special events, such as State of the Union addresses, presidential inaugurations, or the recent papal visit. Clear detection of sources is difficult due to natural background radiation, which can vary greatly throughout a given search area. Background radiation is mostly a function of the materials used in roadways, sidewalks, and building exteriors. A team of scientists from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the Remote Sensing Laboratory (RSL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) is exploring the nature and variability of background count rates in order to improve the performance of searches in urban areas. A series of background measurements have been and will continue to be taken at a Military Operations on Urban Terrain (MOUT) environment at the Fort Indiantown Gap (FTIG) National Guard training facility in Pennsylvania. This site replicates a small town with asphalt roads, concrete intersections, buildings, sidewalks, curbs, and gravel parking areas. Unlike an actual urban area, traffic and pedestrian access can be easily controlled to avoid interference with measurements. This paper documents the efforts focused on characterizing the various concentrations of radioactive material found in these materials at the site. The NORM concentrations determined from this work will be incorporated in to a large-scale simulation (a 'virtual test-bed') that can be used to investigate various search techniques and algorithms, detector suite configurations, and to produce representative synthetic data for future work. A combination of measurement and simulation was used to determine the concentration of {sup 40}K and the radioactive nuclides in the uranium series and the thorium series in several materials at the FTIG MOUT site. The predicted concentrations are consistent with other published results, and they matched favorably with synthetic data generated with MCNP6 models using the determined NORM concentrations and estimates of the FTIG environment as described by available construction plans and using standard material assumptions. Future measurements will incorporate lessons learned from this study. More measurements will be made of the concrete intersections at the site. The methodology explained in this report will also be carried out on building materials in an effort to characterize NORM concentrations in these background sources. Other modeling and simulation work that should be conducted includes a robust sensitivity analysis in which the effects of small changes to the model (and measurement) system can be characterized to help bound the uncertainty on the final NORM concentration predictions. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Roman View of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Galaxy–galaxy strong gravitational lenses can constrain dark matter models and the Lambda cold dark matter cosmological paradigm at subgalactic scales. Currently, there is a dearth of images of these rare systems with high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and angular resolution. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (hereafter Roman), scheduled for launch in late 2026, will play a transformative role in strong-lensing science with its planned wide-field surveys. With its remarkable 0.281 square degree field of view and diffraction-limited angular resolution of ~0$^{''}_.$1, Roman is uniquely suited to characterizing dark matter substructure from a robust population of strong lenses. We present a yield simulation of detectable strong lenses in Roman’s planned High Latitude Wide Area Survey (HLWAS). We simulate a population of galaxy–galaxy strong lenses across cosmic time with cold dark matter subhalo populations, select those detectable in the HLWAS, and generate simulated images accounting for realistic Wide Field Instrument detector effects. For a fiducial case of single 146 s exposures, we predict around 160,000 detectable strong lenses in the HLWAS, of which about 500 will have sufficient SNR to be amenable to detailed substructure characterization. We investigate the effect of variation of the point-spread function across Roman’s field of view on detecting individual subhalos and the suppression of the subhalo mass function at low masses. Our simulation products are available to support strong-lens science with Roman, such as training neural networks and validating dark matter substructure analysis pipelines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

X-33 Integrated Test facility, Extended Range Simulation

In support of the X-33 Single Stage To Orbit program, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center was selected to provide continuous communications coverage of the X-33 vehicle from launch, through landing at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Montana and Michaels Army Air Field, Utah. An extensive real-time range simulation capability is being developed to ensure successful communications with the autonomous X-33 vehicle. This paper will provide an overview of the various levels of simulation being developed to support the X-33 extended range subsystems. These subsystems include the Flight Termination System, L-Band command uplink subsystem and the S-Band telemetry downlink subsystem. In addition, the radar model developed provides continuous azimuth, elevation and range information based on the flight trajectory. The Dynamic Ground Station Analysis model developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, calculate the received signal strength at each ground station. This model takes into consideration Radio Frequency (RF) link parameters such as frequency, antenna gain, space loss, plasma effects and the vehicle's position and attitude at any point in time during the flight path. All three RF links are then attenuated based on this calculated level and the RF signals are sent into telemetry receivers to emulate remote sites, or the power incident on the vehicle from uplinked signals. The best source received telemetry data is then passed back to the Launch and Mission Control Monitoring System (LMCMS) resident in the Operations Control Center. The LMCMS also provides the range simulation system the uplink command combined with differential GPS corrections. Later stages will require the progressive integration of actual range hardware with this simulation effort, leading to communication between telemetry, uplink and FTS antennas at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, with vehicle antennas mounted on the Walter C. Williams Research Aircraft Integration Facility (RAIF). Decommutated Pulse Code Modulated (PCM) data is displayed on one of the four monitors that comprise the Range Safety Officer's (RSO) station. Also displayed are instantaneous impact prediction models, and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data for notification of other traffic in the area. Aside from initiating the flight termination command and validating communication links, the RSO station with the range simulation will be used to provide both range control and range safety officers training. The training is necessary to perform their respective functions with greater levels of confidence prior to first flight.

Sharma, Ashley↗

Modeling the Swift Bat Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift / BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of greater than or equal to 97 percent (less than or equal to 3 percent error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux, which has an accuracy of 89.6 percent (10.4 percent error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of n (sub 0) approaching 0.48 (sup plus 0.41) (sub minus 0.23) per cubic gigaparsecs per year with power-law indices of n (sub 1) approaching 1.7 (sup plus 0.6) (sub minus 0.5) and n (sub 2) approaching minus 5.9 (sup plus 5.7) (sub minus 0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z (redshift) (sub 1) approaching 6.8 (sup plus 2.8) (sub minus 3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting.

gamma-ray burst: general – gamma-rays: general â↗

Ensemble Federated Machine Learning‐Based Cybersecurity Situational Awareness in Microgrid Network

Cyber-physical microgrids are vulnerable to stealthy cybersecurity threats that disguise their actions through the exploitation of system knowledge. Such actions can severely impacts microgrids deployed in defense bases, slowing the response time of military forces during national emergencies. Several machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to detect intrusions in the grid networks; however, these traditional machine-learning algorithms lack data privacy and are subject to several adversarial machine-learning threats. This paper proposes a novel federated machine learning (FML)-based three-model framework to detect and identify stealthy data-integrity attacks while ensuring data privacy in microgrid networks. The proposed architecture uses a variational mode decomposition technique to extract derived features from incoming measurement and control datasets. The extraction of these derived features allows FML models to learn minute variations in data patterns that allow them to perform significantly better than the models trained with generic datasets consisting of raw features. Our experimental results show the efficient performance of the proposed methodology against different types of data integrity attacks while considering primary and secondary controllers in microgrids. Further, the applied FML-integrated random forest ensemble algorithm outperforms the existing generic FML algorithms during noisy and noise-free datasets with prediction latencies of only 91–134 µs per sample within the 0.1 s sampling interval and requires communication bandwidth of around ∼8.25 KB/s at the control center and ∼2.7 KB/s per edge client for communication.

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