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At least 703 records · Page 39

Energy-Efficient and Resilient Infrastructure: Simulation, Validation, and Installation

Advanced, high-performance computing at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has enabled access to vast data resources with cutting-edge software techniques to understand, design, plan for, and maintain energy-efficient and resilient infrastructure. We have focused on cities and airports, but the technology we have developed will easily translate to seaports, inland ports, military installations, or other complex and large-scale energy-intensive systems. We can digitally simulate and explore current and future scenarios to make datadriven decisions for optimizing advanced energy systems, transportation and building operations, infrastructure planning and expansion, and battery storage to guide short- and long-term investments, electrification strategies, and integration of new technologies.

Athena↗

Retention of Cr in Meta-kaolin-based geo-polymeric Materials under Oxidation and Carbonation - 17453

Alkali activated alumino-silicates, often referred to as geo-polymers, are considered promising immobilization matrices for contaminants due to their high sorption capacity, durability and low leachability. For some contaminants they may prove superior to cement pastes that are conventional immobilization materials in waste management applications. However, estimating the retention capacity of some contaminants under environmental conditions that include oxidation and carbonation and may induce a valance change, is complicated. These contaminants tend to be soluble under oxidizing condition and form precipitates under reducing conditions. Thus, contaminant retention is highly dependent on the initial oxidation state at which the metal was introduced, as well as the matrix sorption ability, ability to resist oxidation and carbonation, and the contaminant leachability. Moreover, carbonation in considered one of the most important degradation mechanisms in cementitious material, causing porosity reduction and significant changes in contaminant leachability, however, geo-polymers have considerably lower Ca content relative to cements, or none, and the effect of carbonation on these pastes is less clear. Thus, contaminant release mechanisms and rates must be estimated based upon exposure to various atmospheres appropriate to waste management applications. In this study we aim to estimate the sorption capacity, and leachability of Cr from a meta-kaolin based geo-polymer, doped with Cr, as a function of its oxidation state and carbonation. Cr has a high valance range from +6 to 0 similar to Tc, and is used as its simulant in the current study. Sodium dichromate was used as an oxidized source metal material. To induce reducing conditions, ascorbic acid was added except for experimental control cases. The samples were aged under N{sub 2}, 98% N{sub 2} + 2% CO{sub 2}, CO{sub 2} deficient air and air environments under constant relative humidity. Following aging, samples were subject to equilibrium leaching as a function of pH (EPA Method 1313) and monolith mass transport rate testing (EPA Method 1315). Mass balance calculations, based on the results of a pH dependent leaching test, have shown that oxidized Cr samples lost 85-95% of their Cr content, whereas, the reduced Cr samples lost only 20% of their Cr content. On the other hand, the leachability of Si and Al is much higher in the reduced-Cr samples then in the samples with oxidized Cr, and their natural pH is up to 2.5 pH units lower than that of the oxidizing cases. Thus, we conclude that the combination of the reducing agent and the spike chemistry influence the matrix formation. Sample aging have not resulted in any significant change in the Cr-leaching behavior of the oxidizing matrices in the pH dependent leaching test, although a significant decrease in the natural pH, of 1.5 pH unit, was observed upon exposure to elevated CO{sub 2} levels (2%), probably due to the formation of Na-carbonate species. The pH and leaching behavior of the reduced Cr samples under the various aging conditions have not yielded significant variation either in their natural pH or in their leaching behavior. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Contaminant Leaching From Intact Saltstone Monoliths - 17517

At the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Savannah River Site (SRS) chemically reducing materials, such as blast furnace slag (BFS), are added to grout formulations mixed with low-level radioactive salt solution in order to enhance the attenuation of redox sensitive contaminants (e.g., technetium-99 (Tc-99)). The resulting cementitious material, known as saltstone, is deposited in a series of concrete vaults for permanent disposal at the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Under oxidizing conditions, Tc persists as an anion in the +7 oxidation state, i.e., pertechnetate (TcO{sub 4}{sup -}), with very limited retention generally associated with amphoteric soil oxides. However, Tc(VII) is subject to chemical reduction to the +4 oxidation state, which is less soluble and mobile in the environment. Thus, chemically reducing grouts provide both a physical (i.e., low saturated hydraulic conductivities (K{sub sat}) that limit H{sub 2}O turnover and O{sub 2} exposure) and chemical barrier (i.e., residual reductive capacity) to contaminant release. However, many of the previous experiments evaluating the ability of saltstone to chemically reduce and immobilize Tc have been conducted using ground saltstone materials as sorbents, a practice that is likely to reduce the moisture level in the material, enhance exposure to O{sub 2} and alter sorbent properties in an unpredictable manner. Therefore, the objective of the current study was to evaluate contaminant leaching from intact monoliths that better represent the initial physical and chemical state of saltstone within the SDF disposal units. For the current study, saltstone simulants were produced utilizing SRR prescribed formulations: initial batches were spiked with rhenium (Re) to serve as nonradioactive analog for Tc-99, and subsequent batches were spiked with Tc-99 for comparison. The relative concentrations of I, Re and Tc-99 in the salt-waste simulants were consistent with the average concentrations of I-129 and Tc-99 in the low-level feed waste. In addition, SRR retrieved intact monoliths from Saltstone Disposal Unit (SDU) Cell 2A in 2015 for testing. Contaminant mass transfer rates for Tc-99 and other contaminants from spiked saltstone simulants and actual SDF saltstone samples were assessed using EPA Method 1315, Mass Transfer Rates of Constituents in Monolithic or Compacted Granular Materials Using a Semi-Dynamic Tank Leaching Procedure. This method was recently adopted for evaluating contaminant leaching from intact monolithic materials. Given the importance of redox speciation in controlling the mobility of Tc-99, the EPA mass transfer tests for the spiked simulants were initially conducted using leachates in equilibrium with three different test atmospheres: (1) oxic, (2) anoxic, and (3) anoxic reducing. Nitrate (NO{sub 3}{sup -}) leaching was evaluated as a poorly retained waste constituent. The leaching behavior of cesium-137 (Cs-137), representing about 98% of the initial radioactivity of the saltstone, was also evaluated for the SDU-extracted samples. Results from Method 1315 were also compared to a novel Dynamic Leaching Method (DLM) in which a flexible-wall permeameter was used to achieve saturated leaching under an elevated hydraulic gradient in an effort to evaluate the persistence of reductive capacity and subsequent changes in contaminant partitioning within intact saltstone monoliths. The composition of the chemical leachates from both tests was thoroughly analyzed in an effort to identify potential solid phases controlling contaminant partitioning through geochemical modeling. For the EPA 1315 tests using spiked simulants, Re leaching rates (and other poorly sorbing contaminants like NO{sub 3}{sup -} and iodine), as indicated by high effective diffusivities (D{sub e}) and low leachability indices (i.e. LI = - log[D{sub e}]), were much higher than Tc-99, which was attributed to poor initial reduction and/or rapid oxidation of Re, indicating that Re is a poor chemical analog for evaluating Tc partitioning under reducing conditions. Technetium-99 leaching rates for the spiked saltstone samples also appeared to be sensitive to the estimated reduction capacity of the dry feed materials used in making grout, a characteristic that can vary between different BFS sources. Technetium-99 leaching rates for the intact saltstone samples in the EPA 1315 test were quite similar, with less variability between the three test samples. This may be indicative of the longer curing time before the SDF samples were tested (∼3 years). Somewhat surprisingly, the leaching rates for Cs-137 from the SDF samples were generally lower than the poorly sorbing contaminants, NO{sub 3}{sup -} and iodine. For the DLM tests, Re leaching from spiked saltstone was much higher than observed for Tc-99, with rates similar to that of non-reactive grout constituents, consistent with EPA 1315 leaching rates. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

High Energy X-ray Applications for the Characterization of Metallic Uranium Alloys

Uranium-based metallic alloys are both candidates for fuels in high performance research and test reactors, as well as in fast spectrum reactors as nuclear transmutation fuels that can be utilized to burn long-lived minor actinides and fission products. Uranium-molybdenum (UMo) alloys are under development for the use in research and test reactors. Whereas, uranium-zirconium (U-Zr) alloys represent one of the types of fuels that are under consideration for use within the fast spectrum reactors. Both of these types of metallic fuels have been studied for over five decades in various types of reactors. Many of the previous studies had focused on performance-based aspects. However, recent advances in characterization tools and techniques, as well as short-term (low fluence) neutron irradiation facilities have contributed to a more in-depth understanding of nuclear fuel and material behavior following irradiation. This knowledge is crucial to the enhancement of current modeling and simulation techniques, particularly with respect to parameterization and validation. This paper focuses on the use of high energy x-rays to characterize metallic nuclear fuel. The specimens were composed of depleted uranium (DU) alloyed with either Zr or Mo, where DU-xZr (x = 10, 15, or 20 wt.%) and DU-yMo (y = 7 or 10 wt.%). The geometries of the specimens were 3 mm TEM disks that were ∼200 μm in thickness. The fuel alloys were initially prepared via an arc melting process. The samples were irradiated at the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) using the hydraulic rabbit system. The hydraulic rabbit system allows for well-controlled, short term irradiations (less than one cycle), hence resulting in low fluences. The U-based alloys were irradiated to doses of 0.01 and 0.1 dpa. The irradiation temperature of the specimens ranged from 150 deg. C to 800 deg. C. Synchrotron characterization techniques can be used to provide insight into material microstructure ranging a multitude of spatial scales, from the atomic scale to the macroscale. High-energy x-rays at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS II) and the Advanced Photon Source (APS) have been utilized to understand the microstructural changes in these metallic alloys, specifically with respect to phase identification, phase fractions, chemical bonding, strain, and dislocation density through the use of diffraction and X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy (XAS). These experiments utilized a robot for specimen exchange during the diffraction measurements, allowing for remote handling of radioactive materials. This is an example of another recent advancement in characterization techniques that enables research with nuclear materials. Detailed results of the analyses of the microstructural changes are pending.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Error quantification and comparison of binary neutron star gravitational waveforms from numerical relativity codes

Future gravitational wave detections of merging binary neutron star systems have the possibility to tightly constrain the equation of state of dense nuclear matter. In order to extract such constraints, gravitational waveform models need to be calibrated to accurate numerical relativity simulations of the late inspiral and merger. In this work, we take an essential step toward classifying the error and potential systematics in current generation numerical relativity simulations of merging binary neutron stars. To this end, we perform a direct comparison of two codes (fil, spec), which differ in many aspects, including the numerical methods and discretizations used and equations solved. We find that despite these different approaches, the codes are—within current numerical resolution bounds—fully consistent, and broadly comparable in cost for a given accuracy level. Our results indicate that the error in the waveforms is primarily dominated by the hydrodynamic evolution, consistent with earlier findings in the literature. Finally, we also discuss current limitations and cost estimates for numerical relativity simulations to reach the accuracies required in the era of next-generation gravitational detectors.

gravitational waves↗

Estimating outflow masses and velocities in merger simulations: Impact of r -process heating and neutrino cooling

Here, the determination of the mass, composition, and geometry of matter outflows in black hole-neutron star and neutron star-neutron star binaries is crucial to current efforts to model kilonovae and to understand the role of neutron star merger in r-process nucleosynthesis. In this manuscript, we review the simple criteria currently used in merger simulations to determine whether matter is unbound and what the asymptotic velocity of ejected material will be. We then show that properly accounting for both heating and cooling during r-process nucleosynthesis is important to accurately predict the mass and kinetic energy of the outflows. These processes are also likely to be crucial to predict the fall-back timescale of any bound ejecta. We derive a model for the asymptotic velocity of unbound matter and binding energy of bound matter that accounts for both of these effects and that can easily be implemented in merger simulations. We show, however, that the detailed velocity distribution and geometry of the outflows can currently only be captured by full three-dimensional fluid simulations of the outflows, as nonlocal effect ignored by the simple criteria used in merger simulations cannot be safely neglected when modeling these effects. Finally, we propose the introduction of simple source terms in the fluid equations to approximately account for heating/cooling from r-process nucleosynthesis in future seconds-long three-dimensional simulations of merger remnants, without the explicit inclusion of out-of-nuclear statistical equilibrium reactions in the simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of ocean model resolution on understanding the delayed warming of the Southern Ocean

Abstract Currently available historical climate change simulations indicate a relatively delayed Southern Ocean warming, particularly poleward of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) compared much of the rest of the globe. However, even this simulated delayed warming is inconsistent with observational estimates which show a cooling trend poleward of the ACC for the period 1979–2014. A fully coupled model run at two resolutions, i.e. ocean eddy parameterized and ocean eddy resolving, driven by historical and fixed CO2 concentration is used to investigate forced trends south of the ACC. We analyze the 1961–2005 Southern Ocean surface and upper ocean temperatures trends simulated by the model and observational estimates to understand the observed trends in the SO. At both resolutions, the models successfully reproduce the observed warming response for the northern flank of the ACC. The eddy resolving simulations, however, are able to reproduce the observed near Antarctic cooling in contrast to the eddy parameterized simulation which shows a warming trend. The cause of this inconsistency between the observations and the ocean eddy parameterized climate models is still a matter of debate, and we show here results that suggest resolved ocean meso-scale processes may be an integral part of capturing the observed trends in the Southern Ocean.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Updates to the Generation of Physics Data Inputs for MAMMOTH Simulations of the Transient Reactor Test Facility - FY2016

The INL is currently evolving the modeling and simulation (M&S) capability that will enable improved core operation as well as design and analysis of TREAT experiments. This M&S capability primarily uses MAMMOTH, a reactor physics application being developed under Multi-physics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. MAMMOTH allows the coupling of a number of other MOOSE-based applications. This second year of work has been devoted to the generation of a deterministic reference solution for the full core, the preparation of anisotropic diffusion coefficients, the testing of the SPH equivalence method, and the improvement of the control rod modeling. In addition, this report includes the progress made in the modeling of the M8 core configuration and experiment vehicle since January of this year.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NetMOD v. 1.0

NetMOD is a tool to model the performance of global ground-based explosion monitoring systems. The version 2.0 of the software supports the simulation of seismic, hydroacoustic, and infrasonic detection capability. The tool provides a user interface to execute simulations based upon a hypothetical definition of the monitoring system configuration, geophysical properties of the Earth, and detection analysis criteria. NetMOD will be distributed with a project file defining the basic performance characteristics of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a network of sensors operated by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). Network modeling is needed to be able to assess and explain the potential effect of changes to the IMS, to prioritize station deployment and repair, and to assess the overall CTBTO monitoring capability currently and in the future. Currently the CTBTO uses version 1.0 of NetMOD, provided to them in early 2014. NetMOD will provide a modern tool that will cover all the simulations currently available and allow for the development of additional simulation capabilities of the IMS in the future. NetMOD simulates the performance of monitoring networks by estimating the relative amplitudes of the signal and noise measured at each of the stations within the network based upon known geophysical principles. From these signal and noise estimates, a probability of detection may be determined for each of the stations. The detection probabilities at each of the stations may then be combined to produce an estimate of the detection probability for the entire monitoring network.

Merchant, Bion J↗

The Effect of Data Transformations on Scalar Field Topological Analysis of High-Order FEM Solutions

High-order finite element methods (HO-FEM) are gaining popularity in the simulation community due to their success in solving complex flow dynamics. There is an increasing need to analyze the data produced as output by these simulations. Simultaneously, topological analysis tools are emerging as powerful methods for investigating simulation data. Yet, most of the current approaches to topological analysis have had limited application to HO-FEM simulation data for two reasons. First, the current topological tools are designed for linear data (polynomial degree one), but the polynomial degree of the data output by these simulations is typically higher (routinely up to polynomial degree six). Second, the simulation data and derived quantities of the simulation data have discontinuities at element boundaries, and these discontinuities do not match the input requirements for the topological tools. One solution to both issues is to transform the high-order data to achieve low-order, continuous inputs for topological analysis. Nevertheless, there has been little work evaluating the possible transformation choices and their downstream effect on the topological analysis. We perform an empirical study to evaluate two commonly used data transformation methodologies along with the recently introduced L-SIAC filter for processing high-order simulation data. Our findings indicate diverse behaviors are possible. We offer some guidance about how best to consider a pipeline of topological analysis of HO-FEM simulations with the currently available implementations of topological analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A current-driven resistive instability and its nonlinear effects in simulations of coaxial helicity injection in a tokamak

An instability observed in whole-device, resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the driven phase of coaxial helicity injection in the National Spherical Torus eXperiment is identified as a current-driven resistive mode in an unusual geometry that transiently generates a current sheet. The mode consists of plasma flow velocity and magnetic field eddies in a tube aligned with the magnetic field at the surface of the injected magnetic flux. At low plasma temperatures (∼10–20 eV), the mode is benign, but at high temperatures (∼100 eV) its amplitude undergoes relaxation oscillations, broadening the layer of injected current and flow at the surface of the injected toroidal flux and background plasma. The poloidal-field structure is affected and the magnetic surface closure is generally prevented while the mode undergoes relaxation oscillations during injection. This study describes the mode and uses linearized numerical computations and an analytic slab model to identify the unstable mode.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Comparison of JET AVDE disruption data with M3D simulations and implications for ITER

Nonlinear 3D MHD asymmetric vertical displacement disruption simulations have been performed using JET equilibrium reconstruction initial data. There were several experimentally measured quantities compared with the simulation. These include vertical displacement, halo current, toroidal current asymmetry, and toroidal rotation. The experimental data and the simulations are in reasonable agreement. Also compared was the correlation of the toroidal current asymmetry and the vertical displacement asymmetry. The Noll relation between asymmetric wall force and vertical current moment is verified in the simulations. Also verified is the toroidal flux asymmetry. Though, JET is a good predictor of ITER disruption behavior, JET and ITER can be in different parameter regimes, and extrapolating from JET data can overestimate the ITER wall force.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Avalanche mode of high-voltage overloaded p{sup +}–i–n{sup +} diode switching to the conductive state by pulsed illumination

A simple analytical theory of the picosecond switching of high-voltage overloaded p{sup +}–i–n{sup +} photodiodes to the conductive state by pulsed illumination is presented. The relations between the parameters of structure, light pulse, external circuit, and main process characteristics, i.e., the amplitude of the active load current pulse, delay time, and switching duration, are derived and confirmed by numerical simulation. It is shown that the picosecond light pulse energy required for efficient switching can be decreased by 6–7 orders of magnitude due to the intense avalanche multiplication of electrons and holes. This offers the possibility of using pulsed semiconductor lasers as a control element of optron pairs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

maestro

MÆSTRO stands for Multi-fidelity Adaptive Ensemble Stochastic Trust Region Optimization and it is a plug n play derivate fee stochastic optimization solver. The problem being considered in MÆSTRO involves fitting Monte Carlo simulations that describe complex phenomena to experiments. This is done by finding parameters of the resource intensive and noisy simulation that yield the least squares objective function value to the noisy experimental data. This problem is solved using a stochastic trust-region optimization algorithm where in each iteration, a local approximation of the simulation signal and of the simulation noise is constructed over data, which is obtained by running the simulation at strategically placed design points within the trust-region around the current iterate. Then the simulation components of the objective are replaced by their approximations and this analytical and closed-form optimization problem is solved to find the next iterate within the trust-region. Then the trust region is moved and the iterations continue until a satisfactory convergence criteria is met.

KRISHNAMOORTHY, MOHAN↗

Spatially Local Surrogate Modeling of Subgrid-Scale Effects in Idealized Atmospheric Flows: A Deep Learned Approach Using High-Resolution Simulation Data

Abstract We introduce a machine learned surrogate model from high-resolution simulation data to capture the subgrid-scale effects in dry, stratified atmospheric flows. We use deep neural networks (NNs) to model the spatially local state differences between a coarse-resolution simulation and a high-resolution simulation. The setup enables the capture of both dissipative and antidissipative effects in the state differences. The NN model is able to accurately capture the state differences in offline tests outside the training regime. In online tests intended for production use, the NN-coupled coarse simulation has higher accuracy over a significant period of time compared to the coarse-resolution simulation without any correction. We provide evidence of the capability of the NN model to accurately capture high-gradient regions in the flow field. With the accumulation of the errors, the NN-coupled simulation becomes computationally unstable after approximately 90 coarse simulation time steps. Insights gained from these surrogate models further pave the way for formulating stable, complex, physics-based spatially local NN models which are driven by traditional subgrid-scale turbulence closure models. Significance Statement Flows in the atmosphere are highly chaotic and turbulent, comprising flow structures of broad scales. For effective computational modeling of atmospheric flows, the effects of the small- and large-scale structures need to be captured by the simulations. Capturing the small-scale structures requires fine-resolution simulations. Even with the current state-of-the-art supercomputers, it can be prohibitively expensive to simulate these flows when computed for the entire earth over climate time scales. Thus, it is necessary to focus on the larger-scale structures using a coarse-resolution simulation while capturing the effects of the smaller-scale structures using some parameterization (approximation) scheme and incorporating it into the coarse-resolution simulation. We use machine learning to model the effects of the small-scale structures (subgrid-scale effects) in atmospheric flows. Data from a fine-resolution simulation is used to compute the missing subgrid-scale effects in coarse-resolution simulations. We then use machine learning models to approximate these differences between the coarse- and fine-resolution simulations. We see improved accuracy for the coarse-resolution simulations when corrected using these machine learned models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerated domain switching speed in single-crystal LiNbO{sub 3} thin films

By using ionic implantation and wafer bonding technologies, we peeled off a single-crystal LiNbO{sub 3} thin film in the atomic-layer smoothness from the surface of a bulk Z-cut LiNbO{sub 3} single crystal. X-ray diffraction patterns showed only (00l) orientation of the film. From positive-up-negative–down pulse characterization, we measured domain switching current transients under various short-pulse voltages, where we observed domain switching currents to occur separately at time after initial capacitor charging currents. This is similar to early observations in bulk ferroelectric single crystals, where apparent positive/negative coercive fields of domain switching determined from polarization-electric field hysteresis loops always equal maximum/minimum applied fields. However, after pulse stressing of the film for more than 1000 cycles, the domain switching speed is accelerated, where domain switching current overlaps with the initial capacitor charging current with a well-defined coercive field independent of the applied-field strength. Finally, we simulated the whole domain switching current transients with the assumption of the resistance degradation across interfacial passive layers between the film and electrodes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Numerical Simulation of the Nanosecond Switching of a p-SOS Diode

Abrupt high-density reverse current interruption has been numerically simulated for switching from forward to reverse bias in a silicon p{sup +}P{sub 0}n{sup +} structure (p-SOS diode). It has been shown that the current interruption in this structure occurs as a result of the formation of two dynamic domains of a strong electric field in regions in which the free carrier concentration substantially exceeds the concentration of the doping impurity. The first domain is formed in the n{sup +} region at the n{sup +}P{sup 0} junction, while the second domain is formed in the P{sup 0} region at the interface with the p{sup +} layer. The second domain expands much faster, and this domain mainly determines the current interruption rate. Good agreement is achieved between the simulation results and the experimental data when the actual electric circuit determining the electron–hole plasma pumping in and out is accurately taken into account.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

UNCERTAINTIES IN GALACTIC CHEMICAL EVOLUTION MODELS

We use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of the following seven basic parameters: the lower and upper mass limits of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number of SNe Ia per M {sub ⊙} formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the final mass of gas. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of 16 elements in a statistical manner by identifying the most probable solutions, along with their 68% and 95% confidence levels. Our results show that the overall uncertainties are shaped by several input parameters that individually contribute at different metallicities, and thus at different galactic ages. The level of uncertainty then depends on the metallicity and is different from one element to another. Among the seven input parameters considered in this work, the slope of the IMF and the number of SNe Ia are currently the two main sources of uncertainty. The thicknesses of the uncertainty bands bounded by the 68% and 95% confidence levels are generally within 0.3 and 0.6 dex, respectively. When looking at the evolution of individual elements as a function of galactic age instead of metallicity, those same thicknesses range from 0.1 to 0.6 dex for the 68% confidence levels and from 0.3 to 1.0 dex for the 95% confidence levels. The uncertainty in our chemical evolution model does not include uncertainties relating to stellar yields, star formation and merger histories, and modeling assumptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗