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At least 703 records · Page 39

Algorithm for Atmospheric Corrections of Aircraft and Satellite Imagery

A simple and fast atmospheric correction algorithm is described which is used to correct radiances of scattered sunlight measured by aircraft and/or satellite above a uniform surface. The atmospheric effect, the basic equations, a description of the computational procedure, and a sensitivity study are discussed. The program is designed to take the measured radiances, view and illumination directions, and the aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness to compute the radiance just above the surface, the irradiance on the surface, and surface reflectance. Alternatively, the program will compute the upward radiance at a specific altitude for a given surface reflectance, view and illumination directions, and aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness. The algorithm can be applied for any view and illumination directions and any wavelength in the range 0.48 micron to 2.2 micron. The relation between the measured radiance and surface reflectance, which is expressed as a function of atmospheric properties and measurement geometry, is computed using a radiative transfer routine. The results of the computations are presented in a table which forms the basis of the correction algorithm. The algorithm can be used for atmospheric corrections in the presence of a rural aerosol. The sensitivity of the derived surface reflectance to uncertainties in the model and input data is discussed.

Fraser, Robert S.↗

Algorithm for atmospheric corrections of aircraft and satellite imagery

A simple and fast atmospheric correction algorithm is described which is used to correct radiances of scattered sunlight measured by aircraft and/or satellite above a uniform surface. The atmospheric effect, the basic equations, a description of the computational procedure, and a sensitivity study are discussed. The program is designed to take the measured radiances, view and illumination directions, and the aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness to compute the radiance just above the surface, the irradiance on the surface, and surface reflectance. Alternatively, the program will compute the upward radiance at a specific altitude for a given surface reflectance, view and illumination directions, and aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness. The algorithm can be applied for any view and illumination directions and any wavelength in the range 0.48 micron to 2.2 microns. The relation between the measured radiance and surface reflectance, which is expressed as a function of atmospheric properties and measurement geometry, is computed using a radiative transfer routine. The results of the computations are presented in a table which forms the basis of the correction algorithm. The algorithm can be used for atmospheric corrections in the presence of a rural aerosol. The sensitivity of the derived surface reflectance to uncertainties in the model and input data is discussed.

Fraser, R. S.↗

A Wrf-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNO(x) Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were added to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Cloud physics↗

A WRF-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNOx Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were applied to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

TH-CD-BRA-02: 3D Remote Dosimetry for MRI-Guided Radiation Therapy: A Hybrid Approach

Purpose: To validate the dosimetric accuracy of a commercially available MR-IGRT system using a combination of 3D dosimetry measurements (with PRESAGE(R) radiochromic plastic and optical-CT readout) and an in-house developed GPU-accelerated PENELOPE Monte-Carlo dose calculation system. Methods: {sup 60}Co IMRT subject to a 0.35T lateral magnetic field has recently been commissioned in our institution following AAPM’s TG-119 recommendations. We performed PRESAGE(R) sensitivity studies in 4ml cuvettes to verify linearity, MR-compatibility, and energy-independence. Using 10cm diameter PRESAGE(R), we delivered an open calibration field to examine the percent depth dose and a symmetrical 3-field plan with three adjacent regions of varying dose to determine uniformity within the dosimeter under a magnetic field. After initial testing, TG-119 plans were created in the TPS and then delivered to 14.5cm 2kg PRESAGE(R) dosimeters. Dose readout was performed via optical-CT at a second institution specializing in remote 3D dosimetry. Absolute dose was measured using an IBA CC01 ion chamber and the institution standard patient-specific QA methods were used to validate plan delivery. Calculated TG-119 plans were then compared with an independent Monte Carlo dose calculation (gPENELOPE). Results: PRESAGE(R) responds linearly (R{sup 2}=0.9996) to {sup 60}Co irradiation, in the presence of a 0.35T magnetic field, with a sensitivity of 0.0305(±0.003)cm{sup −1}Gy{sup −1}, within 1% of a 6MV non-MR linac irradiation (R{sup 2}=0.9991) with a sensitivity of 0.0302(±0.003)cm{sup −1}Gy{sup −1}. Analysis of TG-119 clinical plans using 3D-gamma (3%/3mm, 10% threshold) give passing rates of: HN 99.1%, prostate 98.0%, C-shape 90.8%, and multi-target 98.5%. The TPS agreed with gPENELOPE with a mean gamma passing rate of 98.4±1.5% (2%/2mm) with the z-score distributions following a standard normal distribution. Conclusion: We demonstrate for the first time that 3D remote dosimetry using both experimental and computational methods is a feasible and reliable approach to commissioning MR-IMRT, which is particularly useful for less specialized clinics in adopting this new treatment modality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Investigating Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts using the BISON Fuel Performance Code

There has been an increased interest in research of accident tolerant fuels (ATF) and claddings for use in commercial reactors ever since the events that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011. The economic impact of these events on the nuclear energy sector is significant. As a result, the United States Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy accelerated research in nuclear fuel concepts with enhanced accident tolerance as part of its Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCRD) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC). A report produced by the AFC entitled Light Water Reactor Accident Tolerant Fuel Performance Metrics outlines a set of metrics that can be used to guide selection of promising ATF concepts. Moreover, the report specifies that a down-selection is to occur in the 2016-2017 time frame, at which time the program will move from a proof-of-concept to a proof-of-principle stage with continued research and development into a small set of concepts. Given the time necessary for comprehensive irradiation experiments and post-irradiation examination, it is impossible to perform a complete set of experiments for material characterization. Therefore, the AFC is utilizing computational analysis tools in an effort to understand the proposed materials under a variety of normal operating and accident conditions. For some time, the DOE's Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has been developing computational analysis tools for nuclear fuel simulation. These codes include BISON and Marmot which investigate fuel behavior at the continuum and microstructural scales, respectively. In 2014, NEAMS introduced what it calls High Impact Problems (HIPs) into its program plan. These HIPs are intended to make significant advancements in a particular area of nuclear power research in a short period of time (3 years or less). NEAMS has chosen an ATF project, which emphasizes utilizing BISON and Marmot to model proposed materials, as its first HIP. This summary focuses on the methodology being utilized for investigation of ATF concepts using the BISON fuel performance code. First, we give an overview of the model development for two candidate ATF materials, FeCrAl for cladding and uranium silicide (U{sub 3}Si{sub 2}) for fuel. Then, we present the approach for deciding which simulations are necessary given the importance of such simulations in providing a detailed report into the fuel performance behavior of these materials by the conclusion of the HIP. In absence of experimental data and given the aggressive schedule outlined by the AFC for ATF research and development, computational analysis tools are required. These tools are being used to help guide experiment design and to perform bounding and sensitivity studies to gain valuable information for which experimental data is limited. In support of this effort, models have been incorporated into BISON for simulation of U{sub 3}Si{sub 2} and FeCrAl. Continued material model development and engineering analysis will help address questions related to the performance of these ATF materials under normal operating and accident conditions. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Numerical Evaluation of Effective Thermal Conductivity of PCM with Metal Foam Incorporating Buoyancy Effects for Thermal Energy Storage

The thermal energy storage (TES) system has the capability to efficiently preserve thermal energy directly derived from the energy source, minimizing any conversion losses. Especially latent heat storage offers distinct advantages, including a substantial increase in energy storage density and minimization of temperature fluctuations within the plants. However, the phase change material (PCM) employed in latent heat storage has low thermal conductivity. Consequently, various studies are being conducted to enhance heat transfer. One approach to enhance heat transfer involves utilizing metal foam to maximize the heat transfer area. However, modeling metal foam with its intricate structure is a challenging task in numerical analysis. For this reason, ongoing research focuses on simplifying the modeling of metal foam. Nevertheless, fully encompassing all the characteristics of actual metal foam proves to be a challenging task for the simplified analytical model. The objective of this paper is to interpret the simple lattice metal foam analysis model from the perspective of behavior induced by buoyancy. When comparing the analysis results of solid PCM and liquid PCM with the same thermal conductivity under changes in porosity and gravity direction, we conducted an analysis to discern the trends in effective thermal conductivity that are overestimated due to convection. In the analysis, a constant heat flux of 10 kW and a constant surface boundary condition of 350 K were applied, and a sensitivity study regarding the mesh was conducted. The results indicate that, from the perspective of gravity in the simple lattice model, the solid analysis yields an effective thermal conductivity 29-47% higher compared to the liquid analysis. Additionally, as porosity increases, there is an observed increase of 24-33% in effective thermal conductivity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Numerical modeling study of a man-made low-permeability barrier for the compressed air energy storage in high-permeability aquifers

Compressed air energy storage (CAES) is a grid-scale energy storage technology for intermittent energy, as proven by the decades-long successful operation of two existing compressed air energy storage in cavern (CAESC) power plants. Because of the limited availability of salt domes appropriate for CAESC, the more widely available aquifers (compressed air energy storage in aquifers, CAESA) have recently attracted considerable attention as candidates for CAES. An ideal aquifer for CAESA is highly permeable around the well to facilitate easy injection and withdrawal of air, but the high-permeability region is surrounded by low-permeability zones to minimize the loss of injected air and decrease in energy efficiency. However, such ideal geological structures are not always available in nature. Therefore, the potential of creating man-made low-permeability barrier in high-permeability aquifers is very interesting. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of man-made low-permeability barriers in high-permeability aquifers using the numerical simulator TOUGH2/Gel to calculate the three-component flow (including a miscible gelling liquid). The simulation results show that an expected low-permeability barrier can be created by injecting grout with certain properties, and the altered aquifer performs well for CAESA. Additional sensitivity studies are also performed to reveal the effects of the various factors on the success of the low-permeability barrier creation, including the critical solidification concentration, the scale factor of the time dependence of the grout viscosity, the relative density of the grout, and the volume of the follow-up water injection. The results indicate that, in a horizontal aquifer, low critical solidification concentrations, and small scale factors are generally preferred and the density of grout should be close to that of the in situ water. For the given volume of the injected grout, there is an optimal follow-up water injection that will create the largest storage space without damaging the barrier. Furthermore, these results may help to extend the candidate sites for CAESA and the prospect of large scale energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Mars-GRAM 2010: Additions and Resulting Improvements

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM has been utilized during previous aerobraking operations in the atmosphere of Mars. Mars-GRAM has also been used in the prediction and validation of Mars Pathfinder hypersonic aerodynamics, the aerothermodynamic and entry dynamics studies for Mars Polar Lander, the landing site selection process for the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), the Mars Aerocapture System Study (MASS) as well as the Aerocapture Technology Assessment Group (TAG). Most recently, Mars-GRAM 2010 was used to develop the onboard atmospheric density estimator that is part of the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Plan. The most recent release of Mars-GRAM 2010 contains several changes including an update to Fortran 90/95 and the addition of adjustment factors. Following the completion of a comparison analysis between Mars-GRAM, Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), as well as Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Odyssey (ODY), and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) aerobraking density data, adjustment factors were added to Mars-GRAM 2010 that alter the input data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) and the University of Michigan Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) for the mapping year 0 user-controlled dust case. The addition of adjustment factors resolved the issue of previous versions of Mars-GRAM being less than realistic when used for sensitivity studies for mapping year 0 and large optical depth values, such as tau equal to 3. Mars-GRAM was evaluated at locations and times of TES limb observations and adjustment factors were determined. For altitudes above 80 km and below 135 km, Mars-GRAM (MTGCM) densities were compared to aerobraking densities measured by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Odyssey (ODY), and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to determine the adjustment factors. The adjustment factors generated by this process had to satisfy the gas law as well as the hydrostatic relation and are expressed as a function of height (z), Latitude (Lat) and areocentric solar longitude (Ls). The greatest adjustments are made at large optical depths such as tau greater than 1. The addition of the adjustment factors has led to better correspondence to TES Limb data from 0-60 km altitude as well as better agreement with MGS, ODY and MRO data at approximately 90-130 km altitude. Improved Mars-GRAM atmospheric simulations for various locations, times and dust conditions on Mars will be presented at the workshop session. The latest results validating Mars-GRAM 2010 versus Mars Climate Sounder data will also be presented. Mars-GRAM 2010 updates have resulted in improved atmospheric simulations which will be very important when beginning systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for future aerocapture, aerobraking or landed missions to Mars.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

A Validation Study of Merging and Spacing Techniques in a NAS-Wide Simulation

In November 2010, Intelligent Automation, Inc. (IAI) delivered an M&S software tool to that allows system level studies of the complex terminal airspace with the ACES simulation. The software was evaluated against current day arrivals in the Atlanta TRACON using Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (KATL) arrival schedules. Results of this validation effort are presented describing data sets, traffic flow assumptions and techniques, and arrival rate comparisons between reported landings at Atlanta versus simulated arrivals using the same traffic sets in ACES equipped with M&S. Initial results showed the simulated system capacity to be significantly below arrival capacity seen at KATL. Data was gathered for Atlanta using commercial airport and flight tracking websites (like FlightAware.com), and analyzed to insure compatible techniques were used for result reporting and comparison. TFM operators for Atlanta were consulted for tuning final simulation parameters and for guidance in flow management techniques during high volume operations. Using these modified parameters and incorporating TFM guidance for efficiencies in flowing aircraft, arrival capacity for KATL was matched for the simulation. Following this validation effort, a sensitivity study was conducted to measure the impact of variations in system parameters on the Atlanta airport arrival capacity.

Glaab, Patricia C.↗

Potential Nighttime Contamination of CERES Clear-sky Field of View by Optically Thin Cirrus during the CRYSTAL-FACE Campaign

We investigate the outgoing broadband longwave (LW, 5 to approx. 200 microns) and window (WIN, 8 to approx. 12 microns) channel radiances at the top of atmosphere (TOA) under clear-sky conditions, using data acquired by the Cloud and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments onboard the NASA Terra satellite platform. In this study, detailed analyses are performed on the CERES Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds product to understand the radiative effect of thin cirrus. The data are acquired over the Florida area during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) field program. Of particular interest is the anisotropy associated with the radiation field. Measured CERES broadband radiances are compared to those obtained from rigorous radiative transfer simulations. Analysis of results from this comparison indicates that the simulated radiances tend to be larger than their measured counterparts, with differences ranging from 2.1% to 8.3% for the LW band and from 1.7% to 10.6% for the WIN band. The averaged difference in radiance is approximately 4% for both the LW and WIN channels. A potential cause for the differences could be the presence of thin cirrus (i.e., optically thin ice clouds with visible optical thicknesses smaller than approximately 0.3). The detection and quantitative analysis of these thin cirrus clouds are challenging even with sophisticated multispectral instruments. While large differences in radiance between the CERES observations and the theoretical calculations are found, the corresponding difference in the anisotropic factors is very small (0.2%). Furthermore, sensitivity studies show that the influence due to a 1 K bias of the surface temperature on the errors of the LW and WIN channel radiances is of the same order as that associated with a 2% bias of the surface emissivity. The LW and WIN errors associated with a 5% bias of water vapor amount in the lower atmosphere in conjunction with a 50% bias of water vapor amount in the upper atmosphere is similar to that of a 1 K bias of the vertical temperature profile. Even with the uncertainties considered for these various factors, the simulated LW and WIN radiances are still larger than the observed radiances if thin cirrus clouds are excluded.

Lee, Yong-Keun↗

Groundwater age, brine migration, and large‐scale solute transport in the A lberta B asin, C anada

Abstract There is a great contrast in geochemical and hydrogeologic estimates of the residence times of pore fluids in sedimentary basins. This contrast is particularly evident in the Alberta Basin, Canada, which has served as the study area for important studies of long‐term fluid flow and transport. To address these differences, we developed two‐dimensional simulations of groundwater age, constrained by both hydrogeologic and geochemical observations, to estimate the residence time of fluids and the amount and timing of flushing by meteoric waters in the Alberta Basin. Results suggest that old, residual brines have been retained in the deepest parts of the basin since their formation ca. 400 Ma, but significant dilution by younger waters has reduced the age of these pore waters to no more than approximately 200 My. Shallower formations have been flushed extensively by fresh, young waters. Loss of brines and dilution of older pore waters occurred primarily after the uplift of the Rockies with the introduction of the gravity‐driven flow regime. Despite these large changes in flow regime, solute exchange between deep saline aquifers and the overlying vigorous freshwater flow system was found to be consistent with long‐term dispersive mixing across subhorizontal concentration gradients rather than by direct flushing. Sensitivity studies using an analytic solution supported the use of 100 m for transverse dispersivity in large‐scale numerical models. These simulations confirm that the age and origin of brines are in many cases poor indicators of long‐term solute transport rates in sedimentary basins, but the geochemical indicators that are used to determine the origin of brines can provide useful constraints for calculating groundwater age and are far more commonly available than isotopic groundwater age tracers.

Gupta, I.↗

Seat Capacity Selection for an Advanced Short-Haul Aircraft Design

A study was performed to determine the target seat capacity for a proposed advanced short-haul aircraft concept projected to enter the fleet by 2030. This analysis projected the potential demand in the U.S. for a short-haul aircraft using a transportation theory approach, rather than selecting a target seat capacity based on recent industry trends or current market demand. A transportation systems model was used to create a point-to-point network of short-haul trips and then predict the number of annual origin-destination trips on this network. Aircraft of varying seat capacities were used to meet the demand on this network, assuming a single aircraft type for the entire short-haul fleet. For each aircraft size, the ticket revenue and operational costs were used to calculate a total market profitability metric for all feasible flights. The different aircraft sizes were compared, based on this market profitability metric and also the total number of annual round trips and markets served. Sensitivity studies were also performed to determine the effect of changing the aircraft cruise speed and maximum trip length. Using this analysis, the advanced short-haul aircraft design team was able to select a target seat capacity for their design.

Marien, Ty V.↗

Modeling of CO 2 sequestration in coal seams: Role of CO 2 -induced coal softening on injectivity, storage efficiency and caprock deformation: Original Research Article: Modeling of CO 2 sequestration in coal seams

An effective and safe operation for sequestration of CO 2 in coal seams requires a clear understanding of injection-induced coupled hydromechanical processes such as the evolution of pore pressure, permeability, and induced caprock deformation. In this study, CO 2 injection into coal seams was studied using a coupled flow-deformation model with a new stress-dependent porosity and permeability model that considers CO 2 -induced coal softening. Based on triaxial compression tests of coal samples extracted from the site of the first series of enhanced coalbed methane field tests in China, a softening phenomenon that a substantial (one-order-of-magnitude) decrease of Young's modulus and an increase of Poisson's ratio with adsorbed CO 2 content was observed. Such softening was considered in the numerical simulation through an exponential relation between elastic properties (Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio) and CO 2 pressure considering that CO 2 content is proportional to the CO 2 pressure. Our results of the numerical simulation show that the softening of the coal strongly affects the CO 2 sequestration performance, first by impeding injectivity and stored volume (cumulative injection) during the first week of injection, and thereafter by softening mediated rebound in permeability that tends to increase injectivity and storage over the longer term. A sensitivity study shows that stronger CO 2 -induced coal softening and higher CO 2 injection pressure contribute synergistically to increase a significant increase of CO 2 injectivity and adsorption, but also result in larger caprock deformations and uplift. This study demonstrates the importance of considering the CO 2 -induced softening when analyzing the performance and environmental impact of CO 2 -sequestration operations in unminable coal seams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SAR terrain classifier and mapper of biophysical attributes

In preparation for the launch of SIR-C/X-SAR and design studies for future orbital SAR, a program has made considerable progress in the development of an SAR terrain classifier and algorithms for quantification of biophysical attributes. The goal of this program is to produce a generalized software package for terrain classification and estimation of biophysical attributes and to make this package available to the larger scientific community. The basic elements of the SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) terrain classifier are outlined. An SAR image is calibrated with respect to known system and processor gains and external targets (if available). A Level 1 classifier operates on the data to differentiate: urban features, surfaces and tall and short vegetation. Level 2 classifiers further subdivide these classes on the basis of structure. Finally, biophysical and geophysical inversions are applied to each class to estimate attributes of interest. The process used to develop the classifiers and inversions is shown. Radar scattering models developed from theory and from empirical data obtained by truck-mounted polarimeters and the JPL AirSAR are validated. The validated models are used in sensitivity studies to understand the roles of various scattering sources (i.e., surface trunk, branches, etc.) in determining net backscatter. Model simulations of sigma (sup o) as functions of the wave parameters (lambda, polarization and angle of incidence) and the geophysical and biophysical attributes are used to develop robust classifiers. The classifiers are validated using available AirSAR data sets. Specific estimators are developed for each class on the basis of the scattering models and empirical data sets. The candidate algorithms are tested with the AirSAR data sets. The attributes of interest include: total above ground biomass, woody biomass, soil moisture and soil roughness.

Ulaby, Fawwaz T.↗

Comparison of Different Global Information Sources Used in Surface Radiative Flux Calculation: Radiative Properties of the Surface

Direct estimates of surface radiative fluxes that resolve regional and weather-scale variabilty over the whole globe with reasonable accuracy have only become possible with the advent of extensive global, mostly satellite, datasets within the past couple of decades. The accuracy of these fluxes, estimated to be about 10-15 W per square meter is largely limited by the accuracy of the input datasets. The leading uncertainties in the surface fluxes are no longer predominantly induced by clouds but are now as much associated with uncertainties in the surface and near-surface atmospheric properties. This study presents a fuller, more quantitative evaluation of the uncertainties for the surface albedo and emissivity and surface skin temperatures by comparing the main available global datasets from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product, the NASA Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget project, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer project, NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Image project. The datasets are, in practice, treated as an ensemble of realizations of the actual climate such that their differences represent an estimate of the uncertainty in their measurements because we do not possess global truth datasets for these quantities. The results are globally representative and may be taken as a generalization of our previous ISCCP-based uncertainty estimates for the input datasets. Surface properties have the primary role in determining the surface upward shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) flux. From this study, the following conclusions are obtained. Although land surface albedos in the near near-infrared remain poorly constrained (highly uncertain), they do not cause too much error in total surface SW fluxes; the more subtle regional and seasonal variations associated with vegetation and snow are still on doubt. The uncertainty of the broadband black-sky SW albedo for land surface from this study is about 7%, which can easily induce 5-10 W per square meter uncertainty in (upwelling) surface SW flux estimates. Even though available surface (broadband) LW emissivity datasets differ significantly (3%-5% uncertainty), this disagreement is confined to wavelengths greater than 20 micrometers so that there is little practical effect (1-3 W per square meters) on the surface upwelling LW fluxes. The surface skin temperature is one of two leading factors that cause problems with surface LW fluxes. Even though the differences among the various datasets are generally only 2-4 K, this can easily cause 10-15 W per square meter uncertainty in calculated surface (upwelling) LW fluxes. Significant improvements could be obtained for surface LW flux calculations by improving the retrievals of (in order of decreasing importance): (1) surface skin temperature, (2) surface air and near-surface-layer temperature, (3) column precipitable water amount and (4) broadband emissivity. And for surface SW fluxes, improvements could be obtained (excluding improved cloud treatment) by improving the retrievals of (1) aerosols (from our sensitivity studies but not discussed in this work), and (2) surface (black-sky) albedo, of which, NIR part of the spectrum has much larger uncertainty.

Zhang, Yuanchong↗

Ocean Carbon Flux, Transport, and Burial Within the Western and Eastern US Coastal Zones

This project has been to develop and apply a regional. eddy-resolving circulation and biogeochemistry model of both the western and eastern U.S. coastal regions, capable of simulating the processes that control the carbon cycle. Validation has been by statistical comparison with analyses from various satellite measurements, including those from EOS sensors, as well as from in situ measurements. Sensitivity studies were carried out to investigate how the coastal ecosystem and biogeochemical cycles respond to changes in climate, large-scale eutrophication from indus- trial pollution, and other anthropogenic induced changes. The research has been conducted in collaboration with research groups at UCLA. NASA/GSFC (Wallops), Rutgers, and SIO. Overall. the project was focused on several key modeling issues, each of which tie back into completing the primary task of developing a coastal carbon model for both the eastern and western US. coasts. Individual groups within the entire program are still collaborating to address these specific tasks. These include: implementation of the coupled circulation/biogeochemical model within the U.S. West Coast. including high-resolution, embedded subdomains for the Southern California Bight and Monterey Bay region; development of a biogeochemical model with resolved carbon, nitrogen and oxygen cycles; development of data assimilation techniques for use of satellite data sets; reconfiguration of the model domain to U.S. East Coast; development of coastal forcing fields: development of methods to compare the model against remotely sensed data; and, the test of model sensitivity to environmental conditions. Below, we present a summary of the progress made toward achieving these soak. Because this has been a multi-institutional, collaborative effort, we note the groups involved with particular activities.

McWilliams, James C.↗

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗