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At least 703 records · Page 39

ICAP: An Interactive Cluster Analysis Procedure for analyzing remotely sensed data

An Interactive Cluster Analysis Procedure (ICAP) was developed to derive classifier training statistics from remotely sensed data. The algorithm interfaces the rapid numerical processing capacity of a computer with the human ability to integrate qualitative information. Control of the clustering process alternates between the algorithm, which creates new centroids and forms clusters and the analyst, who evaluate and elect to modify the cluster structure. Clusters can be deleted or lumped pairwise, or new centroids can be added. A summary of the cluster statistics can be requested to facilitate cluster manipulation. The ICAP was implemented in APL (A Programming Language), an interactive computer language. The flexibility of the algorithm was evaluated using data from different LANDSAT scenes to simulate two situations: one in which the analyst is assumed to have no prior knowledge about the data and wishes to have the clusters formed more or less automatically; and the other in which the analyst is assumed to have some knowledge about the data structure and wishes to use that information to closely supervise the clustering process. For comparison, an existing clustering method was also applied to the two data sets.

Wharton, S. W.↗

Separation at Crossing Waypoints Under Wind Uncertainty in Urban Air Mobility

To enable high-density operations in major metropolitan areas, urban air mobility networks are anticipated to have air traffic management with higher levels of autonomy. To ensure that this type of autonomy is feasible, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is understanding various factors that affect the spatial separation between airborne flights and ensure that these factors can be managed. In terms of separation assurance and scheduling, an important real-world concern is that future states of aircraft cannot be perfectly predicted. The focus of this research paper is to understand how these prediction errors affect separation and scheduling services and to explore mitigation strategies to handle these errors. In this research, we have simulated these types of uncertainty by adding wind-prediction errors to trajectory predictions for separation. With these wind-prediction errors, we decompose the problem into two separate questions. First, using both simulation and analytical methods, we look at conflict-detection-only scenarios to understand how the wind errors affect required minimum temporal separation between crossing flights to ensure a specific spatial separation. Next, we study how trajectory errors effect conflict resolution, and we explore different combinations of scheduling and separation assurance to mitigate the effects of uncertainty between crossing flights. The conflict resolution algorithm aims to minimize necessary temporal separation between crossing flights under uncertainty, still ensuring safety-critical spatial separation. In summary, this research suggests that the required minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint is dependent on factors such as inbound crossing angle, the relative angle between wind direction and bearing of each route, wind magnitude, wind magnitude uncertainty, nominal cruise airspeed of aircraft, and look-ahead time of the conflict detection algorithm. This research also suggests that different combinations of scheduling and separation have different qualitative results. Using a combination of strategic, flow-based scheduling, tactical scheduling at crossings, speed control near crossing points, and separation management leads to a system that is insensitive to trajectory prediction errors with high throughput and flexibility for aircraft away from shared resources.

urban air mobility↗

Separation at Crossing Waypoints Under Wind Uncertainty in Urban Air Mobility

To enable high-density operations in major metropolitan areas, urban air mobility networks are anticipated to have air traffic management with higher levels of autonomy. To ensure that this type of autonomy is feasible, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is understanding various factors that affect the spatial separation between airborne flights and ensure that these factors can be managed. In terms of separation assurance and scheduling, an important real-world concern is that future states of aircraft cannot be perfectly predicted. The focus of this research paper is to understand how these prediction errors affect separation and scheduling services and to explore mitigation strategies to handle these errors. In this research, we have simulated these types of uncertainty by adding wind-prediction errors to trajectory predictions for separation. With these wind-prediction errors, we decompose the problem into two separate questions. First, using both simulation and analytical methods, we look at conflict-detection-only scenarios to understand how the wind errors affect required minimum temporal separation between crossing flights to ensure a specific spatial separation. Next, we study how trajectory errors effect conflict resolution, and we explore different combinations of scheduling and separation assurance to mitigate the effects of uncertainty between crossing flights. The conflict resolution algorithm aims to minimize necessary temporal separation between crossing flights under uncertainty, still ensuring safety-critical spatial separation. In summary, this research suggests that the required minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint is dependent on factors such as inbound crossing angle, the relative angle between wind direction and bearing of each route, wind magnitude, wind magnitude uncertainty, nominal cruise airspeed of aircraft, and look-ahead time of the conflict detection algorithm. This research also suggests that different combinations of scheduling and separation have different qualitative results. Using a combination of strategic, flow-based scheduling, tactical scheduling at crossings, speed control near crossing points, and separation management leads to a system that is insensitive to trajectory prediction errors with high throughput and flexibility for aircraft away from shared resources.

urban air mobility↗

Modeling the Nonlinear, Strain Rate Dependent Deformation of Shuttle Leading Edge Materials with Hydrostatic Stress Effects Included

An analysis method based on a deformation (as opposed to damage) approach has been developed to model the strain rate dependent, nonlinear deformation of woven ceramic matrix composites, such as the Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) material used on the leading edges of the Space Shuttle. In the developed model, the differences in the tension and compression deformation behaviors have also been accounted for. State variable viscoplastic equations originally developed for metals have been modified to analyze the ceramic matrix composites. To account for the tension/compression asymmetry in the material, the effective stress and effective inelastic strain definitions have been modified. The equations have also been modified to account for the fact that in an orthotropic composite the in-plane shear response is independent of the stiffness in the normal directions. The developed equations have been implemented into LS-DYNA through the use of user defined subroutines (UMATs). Several sample qualitative calculations have been conducted, which demonstrate the ability of the model to qualitatively capture the features of the deformation response present in woven ceramic matrix composites.

Goldberg, Robert K.↗

Variable X-Ray Absorption in the Mini-BAL QSO PG 1126-041

Context. X-ray studies of AGN with powerful nuclear winds are important to constrain the physics of the inner accretion/ejection flow around SMBH, and to understand the impact of such winds on the AGN environment. Aims. Our main scientific goal is to constrain the properties of a variable outflowing absorber that is thought to be launched near the SMBH of the mini-BAL QSO PG 1126-041 using a multi-epoch observational campaign performed with XMM-Newton. Methods. We performed temporally resolved X-ray spectroscopy and simultaneous UV and X-ray photometry on the most complete set of observations and on the deepest X-ray exposure of a mini-BAL QSO to date. Results. We found complex X-ray spectral variability on time scales of both months and hours, best reproduced by means of variable massive ionized absorbers along the line of sight. As a consequence, the observed optical-to-X-ray spectral index is found to be variable with time. In the highest signal-to-noise observation we detected highly ionized X-ray absorbing material outflowing much faster (u(sub X) approx. 16 500 km/s) than the UV absorbing one (u(sub uv) approx. 5,000 km/s). This highly ionized absorber is found to be variable on very short (a few kiloseconds) time scales. Conclusions. Our findings are qualitatively consistent with line driven accretion disk winds scenarios. Our observations have opened the time-resolved X-ray spectral analysis field for mini-BAL QSOs; only with future deep studies will we be able to map the dynamics of the inner flow and understand the physics of AGN winds and their impact on the environment.

Giustini, M.↗

Development of Bonded Joint Technology for a Rigidizable-Inflatable Deployable Truss

Microwave and Synthetic Aperture Radar antenna systems have been developed as instrument systems using truss structures as their primary support and deployment mechanism for over a decade. NASA Langley Research Center has been investigating fabrication, modular assembly, and deployment methods of lightweight rigidizable/inflatable linear truss structures during that time for large spacecraft systems. The primary goal of the research at Langley Research Center is to advance these existing state-of-the-art joining and deployment concepts to achieve prototype system performance in a relevant space environment. During 2005, the development, fabrication, and testing of a 6.7 meter multi-bay, deployable linear truss was conducted at Langley Research Center to demonstrate functional and precision metrics of a rigidizable/inflatable truss structure. The present paper is intended to summarize aspects of bonded joint technology developed for the 6.7 meter deployable linear truss structure while providing a brief overview of the entire truss fabrication, assembly, and deployment methodology. A description of the basic joint design, surface preparation investigations, and experimental joint testing of component joint test articles will be described. Specifically, the performance of two room temperature adhesives were investigated to obtain qualitative data related to tube folding testing and quantitative data related to tensile shear strength testing. It was determined from the testing that a polyurethane-based adhesive best met the rigidizable/inflatable truss project requirements.

Smeltzer, Stanley S., III↗

Aspects of passive magnetic levitation based on high-T(sub c) superconducting YBCO thin films

Passive magnetic levitation systems reported in the past were mostly confined to bulk superconducting materials. Here we present fundamental studies on magnetic levitation employing cylindrical permanent magnets floating above high-T(sub c) superconducting YBCO thin films (thickness about 0.3 mu m). Experiments included free floating rotating magnets as well as well-established flexible beam methods. By means of the latter, we investigated levitation and drag force hysteresis as well as magnetic stiffness properties of the superconductor-magnet arrangement. In the case of vertical motion of the magnet, characteristic high symmetry of repulsive (approaching) and attractive (withdrawing) branches of the pronounced force-displacement hysteresis could be detected. Achievable force levels were low as expected but sufficient for levitation of permanent magnets. With regard to magnetic stiffness, thin films proved to show stiffness-force ratios about one order of magnitude higher than bulk materials. Phenomenological models support the measurements. Regarding the magnetic hysteresis of the superconductor, the Irie-Yamafuji model was used for solving the equation of force balance in cylindrical coordinates allowing for a macroscopic description of the superconductor magnetization. This procedure provided good agreement with experimental levitation force and stiffness data during vertical motion. For the case of (lateral) drag force basic qualitative characteristics could be recovered, too. It is shown that models, based on simple asymmetric magnetization of the superconductor, describe well asymptotic transition of drag forces after the change of the magnet motion direction. Virgin curves (starting from equilibrium, i.e. symmetric magnetization) are approximated by a linear approach already reported in literature only. This paper shows that basic properties of superconducting thin films allow for their application to magnetic levitation or - without need of levitation forces, e.g. microgravity - magnetic damping devices.

Schoenhuber, P.↗

Surface Flow Visualization of the High-Lift Common Research Model

A 10% scale version of the High-Lift Common Research Model (CRM-HL) was tested in the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel (14x22) in support of the NASA Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) Project. The CRM-HL experiment included various configurations such as conventional and simple-hinged flaps, with and without engine nacelle/pylon, with and without nacelle chine, different Active Flow Control (AFC) methods (sweeping jets, alternating pulsed jets, and preconditioned boundary layer blowing), and their various parameters. This particular study is focused on the surface flow visualization of the conventional CRM-HL model at landing configuration. The conventional CRM-HL model with the single-slotted Fowler flap system serves as a baseline for the AFC-enabled simplified high-lift configuration as well as a high-lift technology development platform due to its publicly open geometry. Surface flow visualizations were performed using fluorescent minitufts, which were found to be nonintrusive to the aerodynamic performance. Tuft flow visualizations are supplemented with the relevant pressure and force measurements in order to understand the flow characteristics developed on the conventional CRM- HL model. In addition, three dimensional, unsteady, compressible Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations were performed for selective cases. The surface streamlines and transverse velocity fluctuations obtained by the CFD simulations are qualitatively compared to the tuft direction and tuft unsteadiness, respectively. Force measurements of the CRM-HL model show performance degradation at higher angles of attack. Surface flow visualizations revealed the performance loss due to the nacelle/pylon wake that grows with angle of attack and eventually promotes flow separation over the inboard wing. This performance loss was successfully recovered by placing a chine on the engine nacelle.

Koklu, Mehti↗

Elevated temperature viscous remanent magnetization of natural and synthetic multidomain magnetite

The time-temperature relationship of magnetization is a subject of much interest and debate by paleomagnetists, rock magnetists, and magnetic anomaly modellers. We have investigated this relationship by studying the viscous remanent magnetization (VRM) of coarse-grained multidomain (MD) magnetite. Our experiments covered the temperature range from 22 to 400 C, times from minutes to months, and included both Australian granulite samples and multidomain magnetite samples synthesized by the glass ceramic method. VRM acquisition was found to generally increase with temperature but not always at the rate predicted from classical thermal fluctuation theories. Thermal cycling between room temperature (at which the measurements were made) and the VRM acquisition temperature sharply decreased the temperature dependence of the VRM. Room temperature VRM acquisition accelerates with time when plotted on a semilog plot, whereas at elevated temperature the curves are quasilinear against log(time) for both the natural and synthetic samples. This change in behavior may suggest a variation in the VRM acquisition mechanism as a function of temperature for MD magnetite. The granulites have a nearly linear increase in VRM acquisition rate with temperature whereas the glass ceramics display little change in the acquisition rate between 22 and 200 C, but increase by nearly a factor of 3 by 400 C. The increase in VRM of the glass ceramics between 200 and 400 C is in general qualitative agreement with thermal fluctuation theory. There was no systematic change in the rate of VRM acquisition with grain size for the multidomain magnetites used in this study. Elevated temperature (e.g., 400 C) VRM acquisition by the deep crustal granulites, if extrapolated over the Brunhes chron, would produce a magnetization of several A/m which, if true, is of the order required by models for the source of long-wavelength magnetic anomalies.

Kelso, Paul R.↗

Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Liquid and Polymer Electrolytes for Energy Storage Devices

Advancing beyond current lithium-ion technology is necessary in order to enable energy storage devices for electric airplanes. Electrolyte stability is a key limiting factor, yet the design of improved electrolytes remains a formidable challenge. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are a powerful tool for studying electrolytes, since they can be used to evaluate structural, thermodynamic, and transport properties, and can provide molecular-level detail often inaccessible to experimental techniques. Our computational materials groups at the NASA Ames Research Center has developed models and methods to accurately simulate both liquid and polymer electrolytes.We report the results from atomistic MD simulations of several electrolyte materials, with lithium salts dissolved in ionic liquids, dimethoxyethane (DME), and polyethylene oxide (PEO). For improved accuracy, we employ polarizable models, where each atom is given an environment-dependent atomic dipole. The simulations accurately predict bulk transport properties, including viscosity, diffusion, and ionic conductivity, in quantitative agreement with available experimental data. Moreover, the simulations provide important insights into the solvation structure of the lithium ions.We also report the results from coarse-grained MD simulations of polyanion electrolytes. In order to more efficiently capture the longer length- and time-scales of these systems, we employ a generic bead-spring model. These simulations provide important insight into how the polymer chain architecture and ionic interaction strengths affect the ionic aggregation behavior and cation dynamics. Despite the simplicity of the model, the simulations yield qualitative agreement with experimental data for similar systems.

Abbott, Lauren J.↗

Predictive Modeling to Assess and Address Challenges and Limitations Associated with Clinical Care and Decision Support in Deep Space

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method for assessing and integrating the risk of failure in a multivariate system. While it is often applied by engineers designing complex machines, it could also be applied to humans to assess the probability of a health “failure” treating diseases as the multiple “variables” and the human as the “complex machine.” The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was developed to apply PRA to assess medical risk for exploration spaceflight and inform the design of medical systems for space flight. The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault tree probabilistic techniques to classify risk in the space flight environment by leveraging the inherent knowledge of complex space flight system design and testing to quantify risk. However, in harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of “How do we balance astronaut health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on exploration space missions?” remains a profoundly challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is one aspect of the Human Research Program’s efforts to represent space fight human health and performance risks quantitatively.

L Mcintyre↗

Simulating Space Capsule Water Landing with Explicit Finite Element Method

A study of using an explicit nonlinear dynamic finite element code for simulating the water landing of a space capsule was performed. The finite element model contains Lagrangian shell elements for the space capsule and Eulerian solid elements for the water and air. An Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) solver and a penalty coupling method were used for predicting the fluid and structure interaction forces. The space capsule was first assumed to be rigid, so the numerical results could be correlated with closed form solutions. The water and air meshes were continuously refined until the solution was converged. The converged maximum deceleration predicted is bounded by the classical von Karman and Wagner solutions and is considered to be an adequate solution. The refined water and air meshes were then used in the models for simulating the water landing of a capsule model that has a flexible bottom. For small pitch angle cases, the maximum deceleration from the flexible capsule model was found to be significantly greater than the maximum deceleration obtained from the corresponding rigid model. For large pitch angle cases, the difference between the maximum deceleration of the flexible model and that of its corresponding rigid model is smaller. Test data of Apollo space capsules with a flexible heat shield qualitatively support the findings presented in this paper.

Wang, John T.↗

Active and Passive Radiative Transfer Modeling of the Olympic Mountains Experiment

Sensor forward models are an important tool for interpreting remote sensing observations of geophysical phenomena. By implementing a three-dimensional framework, we can simulate and analyze observations from various sensors on disparate platforms. To demonstrate our model framework, we simulate observations from the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX). The use of cloud model simulations allows us to understand sensor response to cloud ice, falling snow, and other processes and features, and the application of model tools to observations allows us to quantify precipitation.MIIST 3D Forward ModelThe Multi-Instrument Inverse Solver Testbed(MIIST) uses the Atmospheric Radiative TransferSimulator (ARTS) for solving the vector radiativetransfer (RT) equation in up to three spatialdimensions within a spherical geometry• Gas absorptiono Line-by-line calculationso Fast transmittance tables• Hydrometeor scattering solverso Discrete ordinateo RT4 (Evans, 1D)o Radar Single Scattering (1D or 3D)o Monte Carlo (3D)Scattering TablesHigh-fidelity hydrometeor scatteringtables are necessary for accurateand consistent forward modeling ofmulti-frequency observations• Requires full Stokes matriceso And absorption vector• Randomly oriented particleso Discrete Dipole Approximationo Characteristic Basis Function Method(coming soon)• Horizontally-oriented plateso Invariant Imbedding T-matrix MethodCloud Resolving SimulationsCloud resolving simulations (e.g.,NU-WRF) supply output consistentwith ARTS needs• Atmospheric Informationo Temperatureo Pressure / heighto Water vapor• Hydrometeor Profileso ARTS architecture ripe for explicit binmicrophysics• Examples use Morrison 2M schemeThe Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)Validation for GPM of mid-latitudefrontal systems approaching nearcoastalmountains from the ocean• Large collection of ground-based andairborne sensorso Radarso Radiometerso In situ• Contemporaneous with RADEXo Two sets of radar at same frequenciesRadiometer Simulation (3 km NUWRF, 20151203, 15:00)2018.12.14 7Simulate 166 GHz polarizationdifference• Corresponds to the presence of aligned icecrystals• Look at trends for both simulations andobservations• Simulations can tolerate lower resolutiono Larger domainSimulations from Observations: OLYMPEXSimulate sensor response usinggeophysical retrievals as input• Single frequency radar retrievals• Multiple scattering enhancementapparent at W band• Spatially dependent phenomenonModeling Application: 1D Retrievals03 December 2015• DC-8 and ER-2 flightso Focus on APR-3 (DC-8)• Citationo Stacked microphysics legso Qualitative comparisonso Range of frozen habitso Presence of supercooledliquid cloudsResults• Retrievals match probeso Good qualitative match• Bands of increasedreflectivity correspond tolarge Dm and highaggregate fraction• Significant amounts ofsupercooled liquid water

Adams, Ian S.↗

The Spacecraft Materials Selector: An Artificial Intelligence System for Preliminary Design Trade Studies, Materials Assessments, and Estimates of Environments Present

Institutions need ways to retain valuable information even as experienced individuals leave an organization. Modern electronic systems have enough capacity to retain large quantities of information that can mitigate the loss of experience. Performance information for long-term space applications is relatively scarce and specific information (typically held by a few individuals within a single project) is often rather narrowly distributed. Spacecraft operate under severe conditions and the consequences of hardware and/or system failures, in terms of cost, loss of information, and time required to replace the loss, are extreme. These risk factors place a premium on appropriate choice of materials and components for space applications. An expert system is a very cost-effective method for sharing valuable and scarce information about spacecraft performance. Boeing has an artificial intelligence software package, called the Boeing Expert System Tool (BEST), to construct and operate knowledge bases to selectively recall and distribute information about specific subjects. A specific knowledge base to evaluate the on-orbit performance of selected materials on spacecraft has been developed under contract to the NASA SEE program. The performance capabilities of the Spacecraft Materials Selector (SMS) knowledge base are described. The knowledge base is a backward-chaining, rule-based system. The user answers a sequence of questions, and the expert system provides estimates of optical and mechanical performance of selected materials under specific environmental conditions. The initial operating capability of the system will include data for Kapton, silverized Teflon, selected paints, silicone-based materials, and certain metals. For situations where a mission profile (launch date, orbital parameters, mission duration, spacecraft orientation) is not precisely defined, the knowledge base still attempts to provide qualitative observations about materials performance and likely exposures. Prior to the NASA contract, a knowledge base, the Spacecraft Environments Assistant (SEA,) was initially developed by Boeing to estimate the environmental factors important for a specific spacecraft mission profile. The NASA SEE program has funded specific enhancements to the capability of this knowledge base. The SEA qualitatively identifies over 25 environmental factors that may influence the performance of a spacecraft during its operational lifetime. For cases where sufficiently detailed answers are provided to questions asked by the knowledge base, atomic oxygen fluence levels, proton and/or electron fluence and dose levels, and solar exposure hours are calculated. The SMS knowledge base incorporates the previously developed SEA knowledge base. A case history for previous flight experiment will be shown as an example, and capabilities and limitations of the system will be discussed.

Pippin, H. G.↗

Slosh-Induced Ullage Collapse Validation by Computational Fluid Dynamics and Application to In-space Propellant Dynamics

Ullage collapse predictions made using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) were validated then made for an in-space cryogenic propellant unsettling application. Ullage collapse is the decrease in propellant tank pressure due to cooling of the ullage gas, which can be significant for cryogenic propulsion systems. Vehicles may be developed that are robust to temperature and pressure changes caused by heat leaks, e.g., propellant tanks with high maximum operation pressures, technologies yielding active thermal conditioning, and systems with ample pressurant for conditioning. These methods are robust because additional mass, cost, and complexity are used to address cryogenic fluid management (CFM). As vehicles are optimized for increased payload capacity, tracking of events such as ullage collapse and self-pressurization in tanks will become increasingly important for propellant inventory calculations. Some ullage collapse events can be studied through ground experimentation, but propellant unsettling in and around in-space coast mission phases must be studied in the absence of an acceleration field. Computational Fluid Dynamics is a powerful tool to address this need, enabling prediction of complex physics prior to flight. Validation of the chosen CFD tool and modeling methodology was done using data from a previously conducted subscale slosh-induced ullage collapse ground test performed in part by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). A small tank was partially filled with liquid nitrogen and pressurized with gaseous nitrogen at various temperatures. The tank was oscillated laterally to induce high amplitude slosh dynamics resulting in wave breakup. Successful qualitative validation of slosh wave dynamics and quantitative validation of ullage collapse promoted confidence in extending ullage collapse predictions to a flight application. Mechanisms of ullage collapse caused by main engine cutoff while in-space were identified. Both slosh dynamics leading to engine shutdown and body dynamics following shutdown were shown to contribute to propellant unsettling and ullage collapse.

J M Brodnick↗

Natural frequency of uniform and optimized tetrahedral truss platforms

Qualitative and quantitative estimates for the fundamental frequency of uniform and optimized tetrahedral truss platforms are determined. A semiempirical equation is developed for the frequency of free-free uniform trusses as a function of member material properties, truss dimensions, and parasitic (nonstructural) mass fraction Mp/Mt. Optimized trusses with frequencies approximately two times those of uniform trusses are determined by varying the cross-sectional areas of member groups. Trusses with 3 to 8 rings, no parasitic mass, and member areas up to 25 times the minimum area are optimized. Frequencies computed for ranges of both Mp/Mt and the ratio of maximum area to minimum area are normalized to the frequency of a uniform truss with no parasitic mass. The normalized frequency increases with the number of rings, and both frequency and the ratio of maximum area to minimum area decrease with increasing Mp/Mt. Frequency improvements that are achievable with a limited number of member areas are estimated for a 3-ring truss by using Taguchi methods. Joint stiffness knockdown effects are also considered. Comparison of optimized and baseline uniform truss frequencies indicates that tailoring can significantly increase structural frequency; maximum gains occur for trusses with low values of Mp/Mt. This study examines frequency trends for ranges of structural parameters and may be used as a preliminary design guide.

Wu, K. Chauncey↗

Multifractal characterizations of nonstationarity and intermittency in geophysical fields: Observed, retrieved, or simulated

Geophysical data rarely show any smoothness at any scale, and this often makes comparison with theoretical model output difficult. However, highly fluctuating signals and fractal structures are typical of open dissipative systems with nonlinear dynamics, the focus of most geophysical research. High levels of variability are excited over a large range of scales by the combined actions of external forcing and internal instability. At very small scales we expect geophysical fields to be smooth, but these are rarely resolved with available instrumentation or simulation tools; nondifferentiable and even discontinuous models are therefore in order. We need methods of statistically analyzing geophysical data, whether measured in situ, remotely sensed or even generated by a computer model, that are adapted to these characteristics. An important preliminary task is to define statistically stationary features in generally nonstationary signals. We first discuss a simple criterion for stationarity in finite data streams that exhibit power law energy spectra and then, guided by developments in turbulence studies, we advocate the use of two ways of analyzing the scale dependence of statistical information: singular measures and qth order structure functions. In nonstationary situations, the approach based on singular measures seeks power law behavior in integrals over all possible scales of a nonnegative stationary field derived from the data, leading to a characterization of the intermittency in this (gradient-related) field. In contrast, the approach based on structure functions uses the signal itself, seeking power laws for the statistical moments of absolute increments over arbitrarily large scales, leading to a characterization of the prevailing nonstationarity in both quantitative and qualitative terms. We explain graphically, step by step, both multifractal statistics which are largely complementary to each other. The geometrical manifestations of nonstationarity and intermittency, 'roughness' and 'sparseness', respectively, are illustrated and the associated analytical (differentiability and continuity) properties are discussed. As an example, the two techniques are applied to a series of recent measurements of liquid water distributions inside marine stratocumulus decks; these are found to be multifractal over scales ranging from approximately 60 m to approximately 60 km. Finally, we define the 'mean multifractal plane' and show it to be a simple yet comprehensive tool with many applications including data intercomparison, (dynamical or stochastic) model and retrieval validations.

Davis, Anthony↗

A Quantitative Risk-Benefit Analysis of Prophylactic Surgery Prior to Extended-Duration Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION: Among otherwise healthy astronauts undertaking deep space missions, the risks for acute appendicitis (AA) and cholecystitis (AC) are not zero. If these conditions were to occur during spaceflight they may require surgery for definitive care. The proposed study quantifies and compares the risks of developing de novo AA and AC in-flight to the surgical risks of prophylactic laparoscopic appendectomy (LA) and cholecystectomy (LC) using NASA's Integrated Medical Model (IMM). METHODS: The IMM is a Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts medical events during spaceflight missions and estimates the impact of these medical events on crew health. In this study, four Design Reference Missions (DRMs) were created to assess the probability of an astronaut developing in-flight small-bowel obstruction (SBO) following prophylactic 1) LA, 2) LC, 3) LA and LC, or 4) neither surgery (SR# S-20160407-351). Model inputs were drawn from a large, population-based 2011 Swedish study that examined the incidence and risks of post-operative SBO over a 5-year follow-up period. The study group included 1,152 patients who underwent LA, and 16,371 who underwent LC. RESULTS: Preliminary results indicate that prophylactic LA may yield higher mission risks than the control DRM. Complete analyses are pending and will be subsequently available. DISCUSSION: The risk versus benefits of prophylactic surgery in astronauts to decrease the probability of acute surgical events during spaceflight has only been qualitatively examined in prior studies. Within the assumptions and limitations of the IMM, this work provides the first quantitative guidance that has previously been lacking to this important question for future deep space exploration missions.

Carroll, Danielle↗