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At least 703 records · Page 39

A Multi-Frequency Wide-Swath Spaceborne Cloud and Precipitation Imaging Radar

Microwave and millimeter-wave radars have proven their effectiveness in cloud and precipitation observations. The NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey (DS) Aerosol, Cloud and Ecosystems (ACE) mission calls for a dual-frequency cloud radar (W band 94 GHz and Ka-band 35 GHz) for global measurements of cloud microphysical properties. Recently, there have been discussions of utilizing a tri-frequency (KuKaW-band) radar for a combined ACE and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) follow-on mission that has evolved into the Cloud and Precipitation Process Mission (CaPPM) concept. In this presentation we will give an overview of the technology development efforts at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and at Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems (NGES) through projects funded by the NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Instrument Incubator Program (IIP). Our primary objective of this research is to advance the key enabling technologies for a tri-frequency (KuKaW-band) shared-aperture spaceborne imaging radar to provide unprecedented, simultaneous multi-frequency measurements that will enhance understanding of the effects of clouds and precipitation and their interaction on Earth climate change. Research effort has been focused on concept design and trade studies of the tri-frequency radar; investigating architectures that provide tri-band shared-aperture capability; advancing the development of the Ka band active electronically scanned array (AESA) transmitreceive (TR) module, and development of the advanced radar backend electronics.

imaging↗

Description of historical and future projection simulations by the global coupled E3SMv1.0 model as used in CMIP6

Abstract. This paper documents the experimental setup and general features of the coupled historical and future climate simulations with the first version of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1.0). The future projected climate characteristics of E3SMv1.0 at the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) designed in the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) and the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas (GHG) only forcing experiment are analyzed with a focus on regional responses of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land. Due to its high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS of 5.3 K), E3SMv1.0 is one of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models with the largest surface warming by the end of the 21st century under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. The global mean precipitation change is highly correlated with the global temperature change, while the spatial pattern of the change in runoff is consistent with the precipitation changes. The oceanic mixed layer generally shoals throughout the global ocean. The annual mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is overly weak with a slower change from ∼ 11 to ∼ 6 Sv (Sverdrup) relative to other CMIP6 models. The sea ice, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, decreases rapidly with large seasonal variability. We detect a significant polar amplification in E3SMv1.0 from the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. Comparing the SSP5-8.5 all-forcing experiment with the GHG-only experiment, we find that the unmasking of the aerosol effects due to the decline of the aerosol loading in the future projection period causes transient accelerated warming in the all-forcing experiment in the first half of the 21st century. While the oceanic climate response is mainly controlled by the GHG forcing, the land runoff response is impacted primarily by forcings other than GHG over certain regions, e.g., southern North America, southern Africa, central Africa, and eastern Asia. However, the importance of the GHG forcing on the land runoff changes grows in the future climate projection period compared to the historical period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using the NASA Giovanni DICCE Portal to Investigate Land-Ocean Linkages with Satellite and Model Data

Data-enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (DICCE), a NASA climate change education project, employs the NASA Giovanni data system to enable teachers to create climate-related classroom projects using selected satellite and assimilated model data. The easy-to-use DICCE Giovanni portal (DICCE-G) provides data parameters relevant to oceanic, terrestrial, and atmospheric processes. Participants will explore land-ocean linkages using the available data in the DICCE-G portal, in particular focusing on temperature, ocean biology, and precipitation variability related to El Ni?o and La Ni?a events. The demonstration includes the enhanced information for educators developed for the DICCE-G portal. The prototype DICCE Learning Environment (DICCE-LE) for classroom project development will also be demonstrated.

Acker, James G.↗

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗

The GFDL Variable-Resolution Global Chemistry-Climate Model for Research at the Nexus of US Climate and Air Quality Extremes

We present a variable-resolution global chemistry-climate model (AM4VR) developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for research at the nexus of US climate and air quality extremes. AM4VR has a horizontal resolution of 13 km over the US, allowing it to resolve urban-to-rural chemical regimes, mesoscale convective systems, and land-surface heterogeneity. With the resolution gradually reducing to 100 km over the Indian Ocean, we achieve multi-decadal simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures at 50% of the computational cost for a 25-km uniform-resolution grid. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.1 contributing to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project at 100 km resolution, AM4VR features much improved US climate mean patterns and variability. In particular, AM4VR shows improved representation of: precipitation seasonal-to-diurnal cycles and extremes, notably reducing the central US dry-and-warm bias; western US snowpack and summer drought, with implications for wildfires; and the North American monsoon, affecting dust storms. AM4VR exhibits excellent representation of winter precipitation, summer drought, and air pollution meteorology in California with complex terrain, enabling skillful prediction of both extreme summer ozone pollution and winter haze events in the Central Valley. AM4VR also provides vast improvements in the process-level representations of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, interactive dust emissions from land, and removal of air pollutants by terrestrial ecosystems. We highlight the value of increased model resolution in representing climate–air quality interactions through land-biosphere feedbacks. AM4VR offers a novel opportunity to study global dimensions to US air quality, especially the role of Earth system feedbacks in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New York State Climate Impacts Assessment Chapter 01: Introduction

Abstract New York State's climate is changing. Temperatures are rising, precipitation is increasing, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. Over time, these changes are projected to worsen. The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment provides a science‐based analysis of what to expect from climate change in New York. Working with partners across the state, the team assembled to produce this assessment reviewed the latest science and modeling to project and characterize what New York State's climate is likely to look like in the future and how this will affect natural systems, society, and various sectors of the economy. The assessment will enable decision‐makers at all levels—from individual residents, businesses, and landowners to municipal and state government agencies—to better understand and make informed choices about how to plan and prepare for climate change.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Basin-specific geochemistry to promote unconventional efficiency

This project focused on two strategic geochemistry-based research thrusts and provided new knowledge in the following areas: (i) mitigation of scale precipitation in shale reservoirs; and (ii) improvement of hydrocarbon extractions from tight matrix pore space. Additionally, we developed a new acoustic monitoring approach to nondestructively monitor shale alteration in-situ in the laboratory and subsurface.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Final Scientific/Technical Report Rapid Design and Manufacturing of High-Performance Materials for Turbine Blades

This research demonstrated the concept of carbide precipitation-strengthened refractory high entropy alloys (RHEA). The advantage of a precipitation strengthened alloy is all phases are in thermodynamic equilibrium promoting microstructural stability, and consequently retention of properties at elevated temperatures. Additionally, as with any precipitation strengthened – or age hardened alloy, components can be heat-treated after manufacturing to manipulate the microstructure and optimize properties for performance. This is an advantage of the precipitation strengthened alloys over composites and ceramics materials, where the microstructure and properties are essentially fixed upon the initial materials manufacturing stage. High throughput (HT), multi-scale computer modeling was used to identifying novel RHEA compositions with desired characteristics needed for precipitation strengthening. The results showed that carbides precipitated and consequently, the strength of the alloys (measured in compression) increased after heat-treatment, which is the desired effect. The project also demonstrated the feasibility of producing articles from RHEA by additive manufacturing (AM).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Measurements of the angular distribution of auroral-zone bremsstrahlung in the middle atmosphere

The angular distributions of atmospheric electron bremsstrahlung at 45-65 km are determined by analyzing NaI-scintillation-detector measurements of X-rays in energy ranges upward of 5, 10, 20, and 40 keV obtained in two rocket flights over Alaska during March 1978 as part of the Aurorozone II project (Goldberg et al., 1984). The data are presented graphically and characterized, with a focus on periods of post-breakup auroral precipitation events. Findings reported include generally uniform upward and downward intensities, with the upward intensity typically 1-10 percent of the total; a smooth zenith-nadir transition of angular width less than + or - 20 deg at 40 keV; a downward energy spectrum dominated by direct X-rays at 65 km but much less so at lower altitudes (where Compton-scattered X-rays play a greater role); and a completely scattered-X-ray-dominated upward energy spectrum. Reasonable agreement is found when these data are compared with the theoretical bremsstrahlung calculations of Berger and Seltzer (1972).

Barcus, J. R.↗

Investigation of passive atmospheric sounding using millimeter and submillimeter wavelength channels

Activities within the period from January 1, 1992 through June 30, 1992 by Georgia Tech researchers in millimeter and submillimeter wavelength tropospheric remote sensing have been centered around the integration and initial data flights of the MIR on board the NASA ER-2. Georgia Tech contributions during this period include completion of the MIR flight software and implementation of a 'quick-view' graphics program for ground based calibration and analysis of the MIR imagery. In the current configuration, the MIR has channels at 90, 150, 183 +/- 1,3,7, and 220 GHz. Provisions for three additional channels at 325 +/-1,3 and 9 GHZ have been made, and a 325-GHz receiver is currently being built by the ZAX Millimeter Wave Corporation for use in the MIR. The combination of the millimeter wave and submillimeter wave channels aboard a single well-calibrated instrument will provide the necessary aircraft radiometric data for radiative transfer and cloud and water vapor retrieval studies. A paper by the PI discussing the potential benefits of passive millimeter and submillimeter wave observations for cloud, water vapor and precipitation measurements has recently been accepted for publication (Gasiewski, 1992), and is included as Appendix A. The MIR instrument is a joint project between NASA/GSFC and Georgia Tech. Other Georgia Tech contributions to the MIR and its related scientific uses have included basic system design studies, performance analyses, and circuit and radiometric load design.

Gasiewski, Albin J.↗

The Citizens and Remote Sensing Observational Network (CARSON) Guide: Merging NASA Remote Sensing Data with Local Environmental Awareness

"Citizen science" generally refers to observatoinal research and data collection conducted by non-professionals, commonly as volunteers. In the environmental science field, citizen scientists may be involved with local nad regional issues such as bird and wildlife populations, weather, urban sprawl, natural hazards, wetlands, lakes and rivers, estuaries, and a spectrum of public health concerns. Some citizen scientists may be primarily motivated by the intellectual challenge of scientific observations. Citizen scientists may now examine and utilize remote-sensing data related to their particular topics of interest with the easy-to-use NASA Web-based tools Giovanni and NEO, which allow exploration and investigation of a wide variety of Earth remote sensing data sets. The CARSON (Citizens and Remote Sensing Observational Network) Guide will be an online resource consisting of chapters each demonstrating how to utilize Giovanni and NEO to access and analyze specific remote-sensing data. Integrated in each chapter will be descriptions of methods that citizen scientists can employ to collect, monitor, analyze, and share data related to the chapter topic which pertain to environmental and ecological conditions in their local region. A workshop held in August 2008 initiated the development of prototype chapters on water quality, air quality, and precipitation. These will be the initial chapters in the first release of the CARSON Guide, which will be used in a pilot project at the Maryland Science Center in spring 2009. The goal of the CARSON Guide is to augment and enhance citizen scientist environmental research with NASA satellite data by creating a participatory network consisting of motivated individuals, environmental groups and organizations, and science-focused institutions such as museuma and nature centers. Members of the network could potentially interact with government programs, academic research projects, and not-for-profit organizations focused on environmental issues.

Acker, James↗

The Second Phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2)

A major motivation for the study of the coupled land-atmosphere system is the idea that soil moisture anomalies may affect future meteorological variables through their effects on future surface energy and water budgets. If true, the accurate initialization of soil moisture in a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system may improve forecast skill, making the forecast products more valuable to society. The GLACE-2 project is examining, through a coordinated experiment using a wide variety of models, the degree to which subseasonal (out to two months) precipitation and air temperature forecasts improve through the realistic initialization of soil moisture. For the first time ever, a global consensus should emerge regarding the value of land initialization for forecasts, perhaps motivating national forecast centers to make full use of land moisture initialization in their operations

Koster, Randal D.↗

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

uncertainty↗

Western Montana Ecological Forecasting II: Enhancing Habitat Suitability Modeling of Mustelid Species and Contaminant Monitoring in Northern Montana Using NASA Earth Observations

Environmental contaminants in aquatic ecosystems threaten both human and ecosystem health. Western Montana’s rivers possess great economic and ecological value, yet the status of contaminants in these systems can be unclear. Contaminants such as brominated flame-retardants, heavy metals, and pharmaceuticals negatively affect ecosystem health by traveling through the food chain and bioaccumulating in apex predators. Exposure to these contaminants can result in neurological, endocrine, and reproductive impairments in wildlife and humans. American mink (Neovison vison) and North American river otter (Lontra canadensis) have a predominantly aquatic diet and serve as reliable indicator species of environmental health. Working Dogs for Conservation (WD4C) uses detection dogs to locate scat samples of these species which are assessed for contaminants by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS). With Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM), the team generated current (2013-2020) and projected (2021-2040) habitat suitability models for mink and otter utilizing NASA Earth observations from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). The habitat suitability maps’ study region encompassed Flathead National Forest and Blackfeet Indian Reservation. Additionally, the team created site accessibility and precipitation anomaly maps that display the viability of survey locations. The current habitat suitability models performed well (AUC-PR=0.88). The most important predictor variables for suitable habitat were distance to rivers, elevation, and land cover. These end products will further inform WD4C survey site selection and contaminant monitoring.

Chelsea Morton↗

Observational Evidence of Strong Forcing from Aerosol Effect on Low Cloud Coverage

Aerosols cool Earth’s climate indirectly by increasing low cloud brightness and their coverage (Cf), constituting the aerosol indirect forcing (AIF). The forcing partially offsets the greenhouse warming and positively correlates with the climate sensitivity. However, it remains highly uncertain. Here, we show direct observational evidence for strong forcing from Cf adjustment to increased aerosols and weak forcing from cloud liquid water path adjustment. We estimate that the Cf adjustment drives between 52% and 300% of additional forcing to the Twomey effect over the ocean and a total AIF of −1.1 ± 0.8 W m -2 . The Cf adjustment follows a power law as a function of background cloud droplet number concentration, N d . It thus depends on time and location and is stronger when N d is low. Cf only increases substantially when background clouds start to drizzle, suggesting a role for aerosol-precipitation interactions. Our findings highlight the Cf adjustment as the key process for reducing the uncertainty of AIF and thus future climate projections.

Tianle Yuan↗

Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest

Abstract Warming generally leads to increased evaporative demand, altering the amount of water needed for growing crops. For the Midwest, some studies have suggested that reaching yield targets by 2050 will not be possible without additional precipitation or large expansion of irrigation. Here, we show that this claim is not supported by the historical summer climate trends, which indicate that the warming of daily average temperatures is largely driven by increases in minimum temperatures, while maximum temperatures have decreased. This has translated into a net decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). With the increasing rainfall, this suggests that crop water deficits have likely become less frequent in the region despite the warming climate. By projecting these trends into 2050 and ancillary use of a crop model, we estimate minor changes in PET that would have minimal effects on corn yields (<6%) under persistence of these trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Model Evaluation

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to facilitate the use of long-term, high-frequency measurements from the ARM Facility in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model data sets are also included in the package to enable model intercomparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2017). The mean of the CMIP model can serve as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as aerosol and microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on individual cloud- and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. The version 1.0 package is designed based on data collected at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Research Facility, with the plan to extend to other ARM sites. The metrics and diagnostics package is currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (such as CDMS and CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first present the input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package in section 2, and a user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 1.0 codes, and including step-by-step instruction for running the package in section 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term. The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗