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At least 703 records · Page 39

Bend Properties of Sapphire Fibers at Elevated Temperatures: Bend Survivability - 1

The effect of temperature on the bend radius that a c-axis-oriented sapphire fiber can withstand was determined for fibers of various diameter. Bend stress rupture tests were performed for times of 1-100 h and temperatures of 300-1700 C. Fibers would survive the bend test undeformed, would fracture or would deform. The bend survival radius was determined to be the radius above which no fibers fractured or deformed for a given time-temperature treatment. It was found that the ability of fibers to withstand curvature decreases substantially with time and increasing temperature and that fibers of smaller diameter (46-83 micron) withstood smaller bend radii than would be expected from just a difference in fiber diameter when compared with the bend results of the fibers of large diameter (144 micron). This was probably due to different flaw populations, causing high temperature bend failure for the tested sapphire fibers of different diameters.

Morscher, Gregory N.↗

Landform Degradation and Slope Processes on Io: The Galileo View

The Galileo mission has revealed remarkable evidence of mass movement and landform degradation on Io. We recognize four major slope types observed on a number of intermediate resolution (250 m/pixel) images and several additional textures on very high resolution (10 m/pixel) images. Slopes and scarps on Io often show evidence of erosion, seen in the simplest form as alcove-carving slumps and slides at all scales. Many of the mass movement deposits on Io are probably mostly the consequence of block release and brittle slope failure. Sputtering plays no significant role. Sapping as envisioned by McCauley et al. remains viable. We speculate that alcove-lined canyons seen in one observation and lobed deposits seen along the bases of scarps in several locations may reflect the plastic deformation and 'glacial' flow of interstitial volatiles (e.g., SO2) heated by locally high geothermal energy to mobilize the volatile. The appearance of some slopes and near-slope surface textures seen in very high resolution images is consistent with erosion from sublimation-degradation. However, a suitable volatile (e.g., H2S) that can sublimate fast enough to alter Io's youthful surface has not been identified. Disaggregation from chemical decomposition of solid S2O and other polysulfur oxides may conceivably operate on Io. This mechanism could degrade landforms in a manner that resembles degradation from sublimation, and at a rate that can compete with resurfacing.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

Aerothermal Effects of Cavities and Protuberances for High-Speed Sample Return Capsules

Extraterrestrial sample return is a growing component of solar system exploration. Currently, four missions, Stardust, 1 Muses-C, 2 Genesis, and Mars Sample Return, are under development that employ sample return as a prime component of the mission architecture. Respectively, these missions will return samples from the tail of a comet, an asteroid, the solar wind, and, Mars. An important component of these missions and the focus of this paper is the design of the sample return capsule (SRC). The purpose of the SRC is to safely return to Earth any gathered samples for terrestrial analysis. The two major design constraints for any SRC are as follows: 1) it must be able to survive a high-speed Earth entry (11 km/s to as a high as 15 km/s), 2) the mass of the SRC must be as small as possible. Because the SRC mass is carried from Earth to the sample sight and back, the SRC mass is a strong driver in the mission mass budget. Further, for the Mars Sample Return Capsule, planetary protection is another constraint. For this capsule, the probability of planetary contamination at Earth due to an SRC failure at entry must be minimal. For an SRC, a possible failure mechanism is severe local heating as a result of cavities and or protuberances in the SRC forebody heatshield. For example, the Apollo Command Module had a number of cavities and protuberances as part of the baseline designs Wind-tunnel tests of models containing small cavities and protuberances showed severe local heating augmentations in the vicinity of these surface discontinuities.4-5 As another example, the Genesis SRC forebody heat-shield contains penetrations (cavities) to mount the vehicle to the carrier bus. It is expected that these penetrations will also experience a severe local heating environment. A concern is that the large thermal gradients may produce sufficient thermal stress to cause local mechanical failure of the heatshield. Penetrations to the forebody heat-shield can also result from damage at vehicle integration, during launch, or during transportation of the sample return capsule from earth to the sample site and back. For example, the Starting SRC was damaged near the shoulder during the heatshield integration process producing a local surface discontinuity. Also, the Starting SRC traverses through the tail of a comet and is in space for 7 years. Thus, damage to the heatshield as a result of micrometeroid impact is a concern. Finally, it is difficult to characterize the effects of these potential heatshield singularities with ground-test facilities. Either detailed simulation or a dedicated flight test is required.

Olynick, David↗

An Approach to Evaluate Precision and Inter-Laboratory Variability of Flammability Test Methods for Aerospace Materials

Materials selection for spacecraft is based on conventional flammability or ignition sensitivity acceptance tests. Current procedures for determining the inter-laboratory repeatability and reproducibility of aerospace materials flammability tests are not considering the dependence of data variability on test conditions and consequently attempts to characterize the precision of these methods were not successful. The inter-laboratory data variability is determined with tests conducted under arbitrary conditions, which consequently may not provide sufficient information to enable adequate determination of a method's precision. For evaluating the precision of NASA's flammability test methods, the protocol recommended includes selecting critical parameters and determining the 50% failure point by considering the specific failure criteria of each method using the critical parameter as a variable. Upon performing inter-laboratory round robin testing using this approach, the laboratories' performance could be evaluated by comparing the repeatability of the 50% failure point and/or the repeatability of critical conditions where the probabilities of passing and failing are unity, i.e., the transition zone repeatability. When a sufficient amount of data has been acquired with this method, an adequate estimation of precision of aerospace materials flammability test methods will be possible.

Hirsch, David↗

Voluntary Consensus Organization Standards for Nondestructive Evaluation of Thin-Walled Metallic Liners and Composite Overwraps in Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

NASA fracture control requirements outlined in NASA-STD-5009 and NASA-STD-5014 are predicated on the availability and use of sensitive nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods that can detect and monitor defects, thereby providing data that can be used to predict failure or reduce the risk of failure in fracture critical components. However, in the case of composite materials and components, including composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs), the effect of defects is poorly understood, the NDE methods used to evaluate locate and size defects are typically at lower technical readiness level than analogous NDE methods used for metals, and demonstration studies to verify the probability of detection (POD) are generally lacking or unavailable. These factors together make failure prediction of fracture critical composite materials and components based on size, quantity, or orientation of defects nearly impossible. Also, when inspecting metal liners in as-manufactured COPVs, sensitivity is lost and only the inner surface of the liner is accessible. Also, NDE of COPVs as applied during manufacturing varies significantly from manufacturer to manufacturer and has not yet been standardized. Although requirements exist to perform NDE immediately after manufacturing to establish initial integrity of the parts, procedural detail for NDE of composites is still nonexistent or under development. For example, in practice, only a visual inspection of COPVs is performed during manufacturing and service, leaving in question whether defects of concern, for example, bridging, overwrap winding anomalies, impact damage below visible threshold, out-of-family strain growth, and liner buckling have been adequately detected and monitored. To address these shortcomings, in 2005 the NASA Nondestructive Evaluation Working Group (NNWG) began funding work to develop and adopt standards for nondestructive evaluation of aerospace composites in collaboration with the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Committee E07 on Nondestructive Testing. Similarly, in 2006 the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) recommended that nondestructive evaluation methods that can predict composite failure in COPVs should be developed and verified, and integrated into the damage control plan for these vessels

Waller, Jess↗

Modeling Buried Object Brightness and Visibility for Ground Penetrating Radar

Comparing the observed brightness of various buried objects is a straightforward way to characterize the performance of a ground penetrating radar (GPR) system. However, a limitation arises. A simple comparison of buried object brightness values does not disentangle the effects of the GPR system itself from the system's operating environment and the objects being observed. Therefore, with brightness values exhibiting an unknown synthesis of systemic, environmental, and object factors, GPR system analysis becomes a convoluted affair. In this work, we use an experimentally collected dataset of over 25,000 object observations from five different multistatic radar arrays to develop models of buried object brightness and control for these various effects. Additionally, our modeling efforts provide a means for quantifying the relative brightness of GPR systems, the objects they detect, and the physical properties of those objects that influence observed brightness. To evaluate the models' performance on new object observations, we repeatedly simulate fitting them to half the dataset and predicting the observed brightness values of the unseen half. In addition, we introduce a method for estimating the probability that individual observations constitute a visible object, which aids in failure analysis, performance characterization, and dataset cleaning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A detailed description of the sequential probability ratio test for 2-IMU FDI

The sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) for 2-IMU FDI (inertial measuring unit failure detection/isolation) is described. The SPRT is a statistical technique for detecting and isolating soft IMU failures originally developed for the strapdown inertial reference unit. The flowchart of a subroutine incorporating the 2-IMU SPRT is included.

Rich, T. M.↗

Small-scale dissipative processes in stellar atmospheres

The outer atmospheres of stars must be heated by some non-thermal energy flux to produce chromospheres and coronae. Processes are discussed which convert the non-thermal energy flux of organized, macroscopic motions into random, microscopic (thermal) motions. Recent advances in the description of the chromosphere velocity field suggest that the acoustic waves observed there transmit very little energy, and hence are probably incapable of heating the upper chromosphere and corona. The apparent failure of this long held mechanism and the growing appreciation of the importance of strong magnetic fields in the chromosphere and corona have led to hypotheses of heating by the dissipation of currents (both oscillatory and quasi-steady). This follows discoveries in laboratory and ionospheric plasmas and work on solar flares, that instabilities can concentrate currents into thin high current density filaments where they dissipate rapidly.

Leibacher, J. W.↗

Prototype solar power satellite options

The choice of options for the prototype solar power satellite is addressed relative to risk and cost. Emphasis is placed on the reduction of the risk of failure. Risk is the program cost multiplied by the reduction in probability of program success due to the risky action. Four classes of risk are identified. It is suggested that prototyping would reduce the technical risk as well as reduce the effects of the other three types of risk by allowing them to be quantified earlier. Prototype demonstration requirements addressed include electromagnetic power link feasibility demonstration, component integration verification, construction technology verification, and cost performance verification. Specific prototype requirements are listed and prototyping options are given in tabular form.

Sperber, B. R.↗

Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS

Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

STS-27R OV-104 Orbiter TPS damage review team, volume 1

Following the return to earth on December 2, 1988, of Orbiter OV-104, Atlantis, it was observed that there was substantial Thermal Protection System (TPS) tile damage present on the lower right fuselage and wing. Damage sites were more numerous than on previous flights and conversely, there was almost no damage present on Atlantis' left side. A review team investigated the cause beginning with a detailed inspection of the Atlantis TPS damage, and a review of related inspection reports to establish an indepth anomaly definition. An exhaustive data review followed. A fault tree and several failure scenarios were developed. Finally, the failure scenarios were categorized as either not possible, possible but not probable, or probable. This and other information gained during the review formed the basis for the team's findings and recommendations. The team concluded that the most probable cause of the severe STS-27R Orbiter tile damage is that the ablative insulating material covering the RH SRB Nose Cap dislodged and struck the Orbiter tile near 85 seconds into flight and possibly that debris from other sources, including repaired insulation and missing joint cork, caused minor tile damage. Findings are presented, and recommendations that are believed pertinent to minimizing the potential for inflight debris are described.

Thomas, John W.↗

Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS

Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Shield sizing and response equations

A consolidated list is presented of meteoroid debris shield equations which have been given in the referenced memorandums. In some cases, equations have been updated; thus, this memorandum supersedes reference 1. The equations are presented in two parts: (1) shield sizing equations which are used to produce preliminary estimates of shielding weights; and (2) response equations to describe the impact conditions (projectile size as a function of velocity, density, and impact angle) causing failure of a given shield that are to be used for probability analyses (such as in the modified BUMPER program). Specific equations are given that are applicable for the following types of shields: aluminum Whipple shields; Nextel multishock (MS) shields; and mesh double bumper (MDB) shields. These equations will be updated in the future as warranted by the results of additional HVI tests, analyses, and shield modeling.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗

Risk Informed Timelines (RIT) v.1.0

Risk Informed Timelines (RIT) is a more modern and holistic method for understanding how access delay timelines are developed and utilized in physical security system evaluations. The software utilizes Bayesian methods to combine subject matter expert judgement and small performance test datasets in a consistent and defensible way. It allows a more holistic view of delay performance that provides distributions of task times and task success probabilities to account for tasks that, if failed, would result in failure of the attack. The RIT methodology is meant to enable security risk managers to begin the transition into more comprehensive delay timeline analysis. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-8294 O

Noel, ToddG.↗

Experimental investigation of probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC composite tubes under multiaxial loading

This paper presents an experimental investigation of the failure behavior of SiC fiber-reinforced SiC matrix (SiC/SiC) composite tubes under multiaxial loading. A new testing apparatus is designed to independently apply axial stress and internal pressure to SiC/SiC tubes. Acoustic emission (AE) is used to monitor the damage growth in the specimen. Based on the measured stress–strain response, a strain-based criterion is proposed to determine the proportional limit stress (PLS). The proposed strain-based criterion is compared with the PLS determined by the AE measurement. The PLS is determined for different loading ratios to form a multiaxial failure surface. By testing multiple replicates, the statistical variations of the PLS are determined. In conclusion, based on the experimental results, a mathematical model is developed to characterize the probability distribution of the PLS of SiC/SiC composites under multiaxial loading.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗

Enhancing Fault Isolation for Health Monitoring of Electric Aircraft Propulsion by Embedding Failure Mode and Effect Analysis into Bayesian Networks

This paper describes a fault isolation approach for electric powertrains of unmanned aerial vehicles. The approach leverages the combination of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and Bayesian networks, thus introducing depend-ability structures into a diagnostic framework. Faults and failure events from the FMEA are mapped within a Bayesian network, where network edges replicate the links embedded within FMEAs. This framework helps the fault isolation process by identifying the probability of occurrence of specific faults or root causes given evidence observed through sensor signals. The framework is applied to an electric power-train system of a small, rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle, demonstrating how a Bayesian network enhanced by FMEA helps disambiguate between root causes of incipient failures, which would otherwise be considered as equally probable.

Fault Isolation↗

PIE: A Dynamic Failure-Based Technique

This paper presents a dynamic technique for statistically estimating three program characteristics that affect a program's computational behavior: (1) the probability that a particular section of a program is executed, (2) the probability that the particular section affects the data state, and (3) the probability that a data state produced by that section has an effect on program output. These three characteristics can be used to predict whether faults are likely to be uncovered by software testing. Index Terms: Software testing, data state, fault, failure, testability. 1 Introduction

Voas, Jeffrey M.↗