Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictive state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Formation and detection of metastable formic acid in a supersonic expansion: High resolution infrared spectroscopy of the jet-cooled cis -HCOOH conformer

High-resolution direct absorption infrared spectra of metastable cis-formic acid (HCOOH) trapped in a cis-well resonance behind a 15 kcal/mol barrier are reported for the first time, with the energetically unstable conformer produced in a supersonic slit plasma expansion of trans-formic acid/H 2 mixtures. We present a detailed high-resolution rovibrational analysis for cis-formic acid species in the OH stretch (ν 1 ) fundamental, providing first precision vibrational band origin, rotational constants, and term values, which in conjunction with ab initio calculations at the couple-cluster with single, double, and perturbative triple [CCSD(T)]/ANOn (n = 0, 1, 2) level support the experimental assignments and establish critical points on the potential energy surface for internal rotor trans-to-cis isomerization. Relative intensities for a- and b-type transitions observed in the spectra permit the transition dipole moment components to be determined in the body fixed frame and prove to be in good agreement with ab initio CCSD(T) theoretical estimates but in poor agreement with simple bond-dipole predictions. As a result, the observed signal dependence on H 2 in the discharge suggests the presence of a novel H atom radical chemical mechanism for strongly endothermic “up-hill” internal rotor isomerization between trans- and cis-formic acid conformers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diurnal Variation of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height Observed from GNSS Radio Occultation and Radiosonde Soundings over the Southern Great Plains

>The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is a key physical parameter of the PBL affected by numerous physical processes within the boundary layer. Specifically, the PBLH over land exhibits large spatial and temporal variation across different geographical regions. In this study, the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) radio occultation (RO) profiles and high-resolution radiosonde profiles from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed to estimate the diurnal cycle of the PBLH over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in the United States. Large variations in PBLH derived from radiosonde temperature, moisture, and refractivity are observed on seasonal scales. COSMIC RO is capable of observing diurnal and seasonal variations in the terrestrial PBLH over the SGP region. Annual mean diurnal amplitude of approximately 250 m in the terrestrial PBLH was observed, with maxima occurring at around 1500 local solar time (LST) in both the collocated radiosondes and COSMIC RO profiles. Seasonal changes in the PBLH diurnal cycles ranging from approximately 100 to 400 m were also observed. Such PBL diurnal and seasonal changes can be further incorporated into PBL parameterizations to help improve weather and climate model prediction. Significance Statement. The atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL) and its height (PBLH) control many atmospheric processes that affect our everyday lives. Observations of the PBL are usually limited to radiosondes at limited time intervals. GNSS radio occultation (RO) provide high-vertical-resolution atmospheric observations that are ideal for PBL study. This study demonstrates that the GNSS RO is capable of capturing the diurnal and seasonal variations of the PBLH over the southern Great Plains (SGP) well as compared to the collocated radiosonde observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Models for Fibril Formation: Rare Events Methods, Microkinetic Models, and Population Balances

Amyloid fibrils are thought to grow by a two-step dock-lock mechanism. However, previous simulations of fibril formation (i) overlook the bi-molecular nature of the docking step and obtain rates with first-order units, or (ii) superimpose the docked and locked states when computing the potential of mean force for association and thereby muddle the docking and locking steps. Here, we developed a simple microkinetic model with separate locking and docking steps and with the appropriate concentration dependences for each step. We constructed a simple model comprised of chiral dumbbells that retains qualitative aspects of fibril formation. We used rare events methods to predict separate docking and locking rate constants for the model. The rate constants were embedded in the microkinetic model, with the microkinetic model embedded in a population balance model for “bottom-up” multiscale fibril growth rate predictions. These were compared to “top-down” results using simulation data with the same model and multiscale framework to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the separate lock and dock rate constants. We used the same procedures to extract separate docking and locking rate constants from experimental fibril growth data. Our multiscale strategy, embedding rate theories, and kinetic models in conservation laws should help to extract docking and locking rate constants from experimental data or long molecular simulations with correct units and without compromising the molecular description.

Shayesteh Zadeh, Armin (ORCID:0000000299896710)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating Battery Simulations by Using High Performance Computing and Opportunities with Machine Learning

The US Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that the battery pack cost of $60 per kilowatt-hour while increasing the driving range to over 300 miles and vehicle charging under 15 min or less would enable mass penetration of electric vehicles in the USA by 2030. These projections are based on the currently available high-density cell chemistry combined with a system level design and optimized electrodes. Electrodes for current state-of-the-art lithium-ion cell technology are fabricated from electrode slurry comprising of active material, polymeric binder, and conductive diluent such as carbon black that are coated on metal current collectors such as copper and aluminum. Given these challenging requirements for development of electrical energy storage devices for future transportation needs, a predictive simulation capability which can accelerate design by considering performance and safety implications of different geometry, materials, and chemistry choices is required. In this chapter, we discuss our state-of-the-art three-dimensional modeling framework, providing examples on battery performance and safety simulations. We also present approaches to use machine learning in the context of large datasets that are becoming available.

Allu, Srikanth↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

New approaches to an old problem: addressing spatial gaps in the World Stress Map

Abstract A well-recognized characteristic of the World Stress Map (WSM) database is the continued presence of large spatial gaps in the distribution of the data records despite the more than 40-year development history of the database. The current release has more than 30 000 high-quality (A–C) data records (often referred to as ‘stress indicators’), but while some continental areas (such as Australia) have seen a significant increase in spatial converge with the latest release, other continental regions (Africa, central Asia, most of South America) remain markedly sparse. In this contribution we (1) review the current state of the spatial distribution of stress indicators in the continental regions (above sea-level); (2) quantify the clustering of the stress indicators in the latest WSM release using the Hopkins statistic as a way to explore the current spatial distribution of the indicators and assess future WSM releases; and (3) present three approaches (joint inversion, seismic anisotropy and InSAR) that provide a way to fill in the gaps (both in the S Hmax orientation and principal stress magnitudes) in regions that lack active seismicity and where borehole drilling is cost prohibitive. These three approaches have the potential to guide procedures for improving a priori estimates of the ambient stress field in the Earth's crust and reduce the uncertainty in predicting both the magnitude and orientation of the principal tectonic stresses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integration of equitable resilience metrics into climate-informed electric utility planning processes: phase one

Working together, Sandia National Laboratories, Southern California Edison (SCE) - an Investor-Owned Utility (IOU) - and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) are studying how electric utilities can use equity and resilience metrics to help inform the prioritization and sequencing of resilience-driven infrastructure investments. To this end, this project evaluated “Social Burden,” an equitable resilience metric which measures the potential impact of disruptions in access to non-electric critical services on people and estimates community resilience to these disruptions. The Social Burden was expanded to incorporate SCE’s existing equity metric and applied to evaluate the potential impacts from a range of climate-informed hypothetical outage scenarios developed under SCE’s 2022 Climate Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment. One baseline (“blue-sky”) state and eight different outage scenarios were evaluated to measure the potential impacts of the outages on non-electric infrastructure, critical services, and people. Key findings include: 1) the Social Burden framework is flexible enough to adapt to and build upon existing utility equity and/or resilience metrics, 2) Social Burden results highlight the high degree of non-electric service redundancy within the SCE service area with most (6/8) hypothetical outage scenarios predicted to increase people’s Social Burden by less than 10%; however, 3) access to critical services and people’s ability to obtain them is unequal and spatially clustered, meaning that there are some hypothetical outage scenarios (2/8) that will exert a higher toll on communities directly experiencing the outage as well as some nearby communities with pre-existing vulnerabilities. The report concludes with recommendations for potential use cases of the expanded Social Burden metric and identifies priority follow-on work. Potential use cases may include incorporating equity into IOU’s prioritization of climate resilience investments. Additionally, Social Burden analysis may provide additional data and insights to augment grid planning, potentially by identifying additional needs and/or prioritizing previously identified needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Power Management for Large-Scale Battery Energy Storage Systems via Bayesian Inference

Large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) have found ever-increasing use across industry and society to accelerate clean energy transition and improve energy supply reliability and resilience. However, their optimal power management poses significant challenges: the underlying high-dimensional nonlinear nonconvex optimization lacks computational tractability in real-world implementation, and the uncertainty of the exogenous power demand makes exact optimization difficult. This paper presents a new solution framework to address these bottlenecks. The solution pivots on introducing power-sharing ratios to specify each cell’s power quota from the output power demand. To find the optimal power-sharing ratios, we formulate a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) problem to achieve power-loss-minimizing BESS operation while complying with safety, cell balancing, and power supply-demand constraints. We then propose a parameterized control policy for the power-sharing ratios, which utilizes only three parameters, to reduce the computational demand in solving the NMPC problem. This policy parameterization allows us to translate the NMPC problem into a Bayesian inference problem for the sake of 1) computational tractability, and 2) overcoming the nonconvexity of the optimization problem. We leverage the ensemble Kalman inversion technique to solve the parameter estimation problem. Concurrently, a low-level control loop is developed to seamlessly integrate our proposed approach with the BESS to ensure practical implementation. This low-level controller receives the optimal power-sharing ratios, generates output power references for the cells, and maintains a balance between power supply and demand despite uncertainty in output power. We conduct extensive simulations and experiments on a 20-cell prototype to validate the proposed approach.

Battery energy storage systems (BESSs)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Glass-contact refractory of the nuclear waste vitrification melters in the United States: a review of corrosion data and melter life

The performance of the refractory lining in glass melters used for nuclear waste vitrification is critical to the melter reliability for long-term continuous operation. Monofrax® K-3, a high Cr 2 O 3 fused cast refractory material, has been widely used to build the liners of nuclear waste glass melters in the United States. Corrosion behaviour of Monofrax® K-3 refractory has been evaluated based on crucible-scale testing, inspection of the refractory components following scaled melter testing, and inspections of the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter refractory after service. The literature generally consists of empirical models based on short-term testing to describe refractory corrosion dependence on glass composition. Corrosion data from tests with longer testing times, at various temperatures, in the presence of molten salts, and with different redox reactions in the plenum atmosphere exist, may be insufficient to provide accurate refractory service life estimates. Additionally, the corrosion data collected under actual and scaled melter operating conditions are limited. Recommendations to achieve more direct correlation between the laboratory refractory corrosion data predictions and the observed melter service life are discussed to allow for more accurate predictions of the useful life of melter refractory linings.

Jin, Tongan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Importance of nonuniform Brillouin zone sampling for ab initio Bethe-Salpeter equation calculations of exciton binding energies in crystalline solids

Excitons are prevalent in semiconductors and insulators, and their binding energies are critical for optoelectronic applications. The state-of-the-art method for first-principles calculations of excitons in extended systems is the ab initio GW-Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE) approach, which can require a fine sampling of reciprocal space to accurately resolve solid-state exciton properties. Here, in this study, we show, for a range of semiconductors and insulators, that the commonly employed approach of uniformly sampling the Brillouin zone can lead to underconverged exciton binding energies, as impractical grid sizes are required to achieve adequate convergence. We further show that nonuniform sampling of the Brillouin zone, focused on the region of reciprocal space where the exciton wave function resides, enables efficient rapid numerical convergence of exciton binding energies at a given level of theory. We propose a well-defined convergence procedure, which can be carried out at relatively low computational cost and which in some cases leads to a correction of previous best theoretical estimates by almost a factor of 2, qualitatively changing the predicted exciton physics. These results call for the adoption of nonuniform sampling methods for ab initio GW-BSE calculations and for revisiting previously computed values for exciton binding energies of many systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Greybox Thermal Parameter Identification of Electric Machine Stators

The parameters of electric machine thermal equivalent circuit networks are difficult to predict due to material and manufacturing uncertainties. In this paper, a Greybox system identification approach is used to identify parameters of electric machine stator lumped parameter thermal networks (LPTNs). LPTNs provide a low order, computationally efficient, dynamic model of temperatures at specific locations. Second and third order LPTN model structures are defined as state space equations with stator thermal parameters to be identified. To test the Greybox electric machine stator thermal system identification, five stator motorette prototypes were constructed with controlled variations in slot fill and slot liner thickness. The variation in the motorette thermal parameters and thermal time constants are detected using the Greybox identification. Special attention is given to the impact of sampling rate and Greybox data record length on parameter estimation accuracy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling hyporheic nitrogen cycling in large river alluvial aquifers

Research Element 1: Denitrification is a difficult flux to measure when fluxes are low and when the ecosystem is difficult to sample. These attributes describe Nyack floodplain, a large gravel-bedded aquifer adjacent to the Middle Fork Flathead River. Given that denitrification is simply respiration with nitrate as a terminal electron acceptor, we reasoned that N 2 production should negatively covary with oxygen respiration so long that oxygen is available. We sampled 16 wells 8 times throughout a year and analyzed these water samples on a membrane-inlet mass spectrometer for N 2 :Ar and O 2 . We fit multilevel models to N 2 :Ar as a function of dissolved oxygen. Within wells, there was no relationship between O 2 and N 2 :Ar. Among wells N 2 :Ar increased as O 2 declined. Based on the slope of this relationship, ~ -0.07, and estimated oxygen respiration in Nyack derived from prior studies, a possible range for denitrification is 0-8 mmol m -2 d -1 corresponding to a turnover rate for nitrate of 0-0.2/d. This estimated turnover rate is in the lower 20% of rates measured in the LINX 2 study, yet shows that even in a low nitrate (0.005 mmol/L) aquifer denitrification can be a substantial sink for dissolved N. Research Element 3 and 4: We developed a new theoretical approach to describe the relationship between water inflow, water outflow, and water age in porous media control volumes under dynamic flow conditions. Our approach had three distinct steps. First we described the application of well-established equations borrowed from Chemical Engineering to describe water age distributions in the hyporheic zone under steady state conditions. We published the associated results in the scientific journal PLOS ONE. Second, we developed a new theory ("flow spans") to describe how predicted steady-state water age distributions will respond to time varying imbalances in hyporheic discharge and recharge. Finally, we developed a proof-of-concept simulation model based on the new theory and used the model to examine the effects of flow regulation on a simulated river with characteristics representative of western U.S. montane rivers with expansive hyporheic zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open World Dempster-Shafer Theory/The Transferable Belief Model with Intervals: A Practitioner's Guide to DST and TBM

Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) is a mathematical framework that allows for uncertainty or ignorance to be quantified and included when making predictions from evidence. This is in contrast to Bayesian theory, which does not allow for any quantification of ignorance. The framework is described in great detail in [7]. DST is particularly useful for problems where the inclusion of additional evidence (for example, data from another sensor) could lead to a different conclusion. Thus, it is a useful data fusion method, especially in applications not suited to maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimations due to limited samples or incomplete prior knowledge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to predict pathogen spread, evolution, and evaluate intervention strategies. Forecast reliability hinges on detailed knowledge of disease transmission across population segments, which may be inferred from contact surveys or mobility data. However, these indirect approaches make it difficult to estimate rare transmissions between socially or geographically distant communities. We show that the steep ramp-up of genome sequencing surveillance during the pandemic can be leveraged to directly identify transmission patterns between geographically defined communities. Our approach uses a hidden Markov model to infer the fraction of infections a community imports from others based on how rapidly allele frequencies in the focal community converge to those in the donor communities. Applying this method to SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from England and the United States, we uncover networks of intercommunity transmission that reflect geographical relationships while exposing significant long-range interactions. The scaling of importation rate with distance is consistent across both countries, yet weaker than expected based on mobility data, highlighting limitations of indirect inference. We show that transmission patterns can change between waves of variants of concern and analyze how the inferred heterogeneity in intercommunity transmission impacts evolutionary forecasts. While applied here to geographically defined communities, our approach could be applied to those defined by other traits (e.g., age, socioeconomic status), provided time-series data can be stratified accordingly. Overall, our study highlights population genomic time series data as a crucial record of epidemiological interactions, which can be deciphered using tree-free inference methods.

Okada, Takashi [Department of Physics; University ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Density functional theory (DFT) study of UF 6 hydrolysis: reaction pathways, spectroscopy, and chemical kinetics

Depleted uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ), a stockpiled byproduct of the nuclear fuel cycle, reacts readily with atmospheric humidity, but the gas-phase reaction mechanism and associated chemical kinetics are poorly understood. During the performance period we undertook development of a state-of-the-art ab initio gas-phase chemical kinetics simulation workflow to model the hydrolysis of uranium hexafluroride (UF 6 ). In doing so, we addressed several outstanding issues in the theoretical treatment of uranium-containing systems. At the outset it was unclear how to generate accurate estimates of kinetic and thermodynamic data for U-containing chemical reactions. Generation of such data has been made routine. Prior to our work, the literature associated with UF 6 hydrolysis were disparate and inaccurate. This body of work provides a modern and comprehensive theoretical assessment of the reaction mechanism, molecular clustering towards deposition, and chemical kinetics. New methodological implementations and software integrations resulting from this work are also highlighted. As much as possible, our predictions were validated against experimental data including particle morphologies, vibrational spectroscopy, atomization enthalpies, and kinetic rate constants. Nevertheless, we were unable to reconcile kinetic measurements with high-accuracy simulations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

An efficient surrogate model of secondary electron formation and evolution

This work extends the adjoint-deep learning framework for runaway electron (RE) evolution, developed by McDevitt et al. [Phys. Plasmas 32, 042503 (2025)], to account for large-angle collisions. By incorporating large-angle collisions, the framework allows the avalanche of REs to be captured, an essential component of RE dynamics. This extension is accomplished by using a Rosenbluth–Putvinski approximation to estimate the distribution of secondary electrons generated by large-angle collisions. By evolving both the primary and multiple generations of secondary electrons, the present formulation can capture both the detailed temporal evolution of a RE population beginning from an arbitrary initial momentum space distribution, along with providing approximations to the saturated growth and decay rates of the RE population. Predictions of the adjoint-deep learning framework are verified against a traditional RE solver, with good agreement present across a broad range of parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Allometric and Mobile Terrestrial LiDAR Modeling of Aboveground Woody Biomass of Populus in Coppice Production

Poplars ( Populus spp.) and their hybrids are increasingly being grown in coppice production to generate bioenergy feedstocks at frequent intervals. Allometric equations are re-quired to predict aboveground biomass (AGB) of coppiced individuals with minimal field measurements. Likewise, remote sensing tools like LiDAR (light detection and ranging) can be used if models are available to predict AGB from point cloud data. Therefore, this study sought to develop equations to predict dry woody AGB from field measurements and LiDAR data from coppiced poplar field trials containing eastern cottonwood ( P. del-toides ) and hybrid poplar taxa. We found that taxa-specific allometric models containing the summed basal area of the three largest stems in the coppice provided the best predictive model, with stem height and stem count failing to provide additional explanatory power. The best predictive LiDAR-based model was independent of taxa but had slightly lower adjusted R 2 and higher RMSE than the allometric model. It contained four parameters including crown volume, leaf area index, variance of height returns, and the top point density (i.e., density metric 9 or the proportion of points in the highest point interval when the point cloud is evenly divided into ten vertical intervals). In total, these models can be used to quickly and efficiently estimate dry woody AGB of Populus coppice systems for bioenergy feedstock production.

AGB↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vapor–liquid equilibrium estimation of n-alkane/nitrogen mixtures using neural networks

Understanding fluid phase behavior, like VLE, in high P&T conditions is crucial for developing high-fidelity simulations of chemically reacting flows in liquid-fueled combustion systems and also forms an integral part of the design-modeling of the control processes in chemical industries. Two data-driven models have been proposed here in this study, each of which was competent in estimating VLE for the Type III binary systems of C 10 /N 2 and C 12 /N 2 , at pressures ranging up to 50–60 MPa. Both models showed better performance in predicting equilibrium pressure as compared to VLE modeled using PR-EOS. A modified model has also been proposed, capable of estimating the full phase envelope for the binary systems of C 10 /N 2 and C 12 /N 2 across a wide range of temperatures, and thus exhibit the mixture critical pressure at the concerned temperature. The diverse applicability of the proposed network architecture was further exhibited while estimating the VLE of a ternary system of C 1 /C 10 /N 2 .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗