Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “performance prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39

Investigation of the Effects of Low Reynolds Number Operation on the Performance of a Single-Stage Turbine with a Downstream Stator

High-altitude turbojet performance is adversely affected by the effects of low air density. This performance loss is evaluated as a Reynolds number effect, which represents the increased significance of high fluid viscous forces in relation to dynamic fluid forces as the Reynolds number is decreased. An analytical and experimental investigation of the effects of low Reynolds number operation on a single-stage, high-work-output turbine with a downstream stator was carried out at Reynolds numbers of 182,500, 39,600, and 23,000, based on average rotor-design flow conditions. At low Reynolds numbers and turbulent flow conditions, increased viscous losses caused decreased effective flow area, and thus decreased weight flow, torque, and over-all efficiency at a given equivalent speed and pressure ratio. Decreasing the Reynolds number from 182,500 to 23,000 at design equivalent speed resulted in a 5.00-point loss in peak over-all turbine efficiency for both theory and experiment. The choking equivalent weight flow decreased 2.30 percent for these conditions. Limiting loading work output was reached at design equivalent speed for all three Reynolds numbers. The value of limiting loading work output at design speed decreased 4.00 percent as Reynolds number was decreased from 182,500 to 23,000. A theoretical performance-prediction method using basic boundary-layer relations gave good agreement with experimental results over most of the performance range at a given Reynolds number if the experimental and analytical design operating conditions were carefully matched at the highest Reynolds number with regard to design performance parameters. High viscous losses in the inlet stator and rotor prevented the attainment of design equivalent work output at the lowest Reynolds number of 23,000.

Forrette, Robert E.↗

Analysis and Testing of Mobile Wireless Networks

Wireless networks are being used to connect mobile computing elements in more applications as the technology matures. There are now many products (such as 802.11 and 802.11b) which ran in the ISM frequency band and comply with wireless network standards. They are being used increasingly to link mobile Intranet into Wired networks. Standard methods of analyzing and testing their performance and compatibility are needed to determine the limits of the technology. This paper presents analytical and experimental methods of determining network throughput, range and coverage, and interference sources. Both radio frequency (BE) domain and network domain analysis have been applied to determine wireless network throughput and range in the outdoor environment- Comparison of field test data taken under optimal conditions, with performance predicted from RF analysis, yielded quantitative results applicable to future designs. Layering multiple wireless network- sooners can increase performance. Wireless network components can be set to different radio frequency-hopping sequences or spreading functions, allowing more than one sooner to coexist. Therefore, we ran multiple 802.11-compliant systems concurrently in the same geographical area to determine interference effects and scalability, The results can be used to design of more robust networks which have multiple layers of wireless data communication paths and provide increased throughput overall.

Alena, Richard↗

An Investigation of the Combined Effect of Stress, Fatigue and Workload on Human Performance: Position Paper

Stress, fatigue, and workload affect worker performance. NSF reported that 61% of respondents state losing concentration at work while 79% occasionally or frequently made errors as a result of being fatigued. Shift work, altered work schedules, long hours of continuous wakefulness, and sleep loss can create sleep and circadian disruptions that degrade waking fundions causing stress and fatigue. Review of the literature has proven void of information that links the combined effects of fatigue, stress, and workload to human performance. This paper will address which occupational factors within stress, fatigue, and workload were identified as occupational contributors to performance changes. The results of this research will be apglied to underlying models and algorithms that will help predict performance changes in control room operators.

Mock, Jessica↗

Scaling of Performance in Liquid Propellant Rocket Engine Combustors

This paper discusses scaling of combustion and combustion performance in liquid propellant rocket engine combustion devices. In development of new combustors, comparisons are often made between predicted performance in a new combustor and measured performance in another combustor with different geometric and thermodynamic characteristics. Without careful interpretation of some key features, the comparison can be misinterpreted and erroneous information used in the design of the new device. This paper provides a review of this performance comparison, including a brief review of the initial liquid rocket scaling research conducted during the 1950s and 1960s, a review of the typical performance losses encountered and how they scale, a description of the typical scaling procedures used in development programs today, and finally a review of several historical development programs to see what insight they can bring to the questions at hand.

Hulka, James R.↗

Scaling of Performance in Liquid Propellant Rocket Engine Combustion Devices

This paper discusses scaling of combustion and combustion performance in liquid propellant rocket engine combustion devices. In development of new combustors, comparisons are often made between predicted performance in a new combustor and measured performance in another combustor with different geometric and thermodynamic characteristics. Without careful interpretation of some key features, the comparison can be misinterpreted and erroneous information used in the design of the new device. This paper provides a review of this performance comparison, including a brief review of the initial liquid rocket scaling research conducted during the 1950s and 1960s, a review of the typical performance losses encountered and how they scale, a description of the typical scaling procedures used in development programs today, and finally a review of several historical development programs to see what insight they can bring to the questions at hand.

Hulka, James R.↗

Design and evaluation of high performance rocket engine injectors for use with hydrocarbon fuels

The feasibility of using a heavy hydrocarbon fuel as a rocket propellant is examined. A method of predicting performance of a heavy hydrocarbon in terms of vaporization effectiveness is described and compared to other fuels and to experimental test results. Experiments were done at a chamber pressure of 4137 KN/sq M (600 psia) with RP-1, JP-10, and liquefied natural gas as fuels, and liquid oxygen as the oxidizer. Combustion length effects were explored over a range of 21.6 cm (8 1/2 in) to 55.9 cm (22 in). Four injector types were tested, each over a range of mixture ratios. Further configuration modifications were obtained by reaming each injector several times to provide test data over a range of injector pressure drop.

Pavli, A. J.↗

Using RotCFD to Predict Isolated XV-15 Rotor Performance

Experimental techniques to measure rotorcraft aerodynamic performance are widely used. However, the need exists to understand the limitations of ground based testing by augmenting the analysis of experimental test results with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling. The immediate objective of the present research is to develop an XV-15 Tilt Rotor Research Aircraft rotor model for investigation of wind tunnel wall interference. The predicted performance of the XV-15 during various flight modes is compared to theoretical and experimental data. This research is performed to support wind tunnel tests scheduled for 2016. A mid-fidelity RANS solver, RotCFD, is used with an unsteady, incompressible flow model and a realizable k- turbulence model. The rotor is modeled using an actuator disk model or blade element model with a momentum source approach. In RotCFD the setup, grid generation and running of cases is faster than many CFD codes which makes it a useful engineering tool. Performance predictions need not be as accurate as high-fidelity CFD codes, as long as wall effects can be properly simulated. Being able to accurately predict unsteady rotorcraft performance on desktop-class computers provides a quicker analysis of highly complex flows during the initial design phase.

CFD↗

Precision X-band Doppler and ranging navigation for current and future Mars exploration missions

This paper describes a navigation error covariance analysis of two scenarios derived from the Mars Observer mission and the planned Mars Environmental SURvey (MESUR) Pathfinder mission, respectively. The analysis was performed to establish the potential navigational performance of the X-band tracking system in NASA's Deep Space Network, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted performance to variations in the quantity of data acquired, the ground system error modeling assumptions, and data reduction schemes. The simulated data arcs used in the analysis are representative of the actual data arcs that will be used to predict the aim point for the Mars orbit insertion maneuver, in the case of Mars Observer, and the interplanetary trajectory aim point corresponding to the target Mars landing site in the case of MESUR Pathfinder. The results indicate that with a suitable sequential data reduction scheme and accurate calibrations of instrumentation, transmission media, and platform model parameters, navigation accuracies of 5 to 15 km (1 sigma) can be achieved, equivalent to 15 to 40 nrad in geocentric angle uncertainty.

Estefan, Jeffrey A.↗

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advances in high-speed rolling-element bearings

The research program begun by NASA in 1959 in order to investigate the projected temperature and speed requirements of large bore ball and roller bearings was expanded in the 1970s to include tapered roller and small bore bearings. In the course of the program, bearing speeds as high as 3 million DN and 2.4 million DN, respectively, were achieved for ball and tapered roller bearings with fatigue lives exceeding those common in commercial aircraft. The computer analysis of rolling element bearings operation have yielded reasonably accurate performance predictions for speeds up to 3 million DN. It was found that under-race bearing lubrication improved operational performance over that achieved with conventional jet lubrication methods at high bearing speeds.

Zaretsky, E. V.↗

Optimization of silicon 8 cm x 8 cm wrapthrough Space Station cells for 'on orbit' operation

The optimization of Space Station cells for on-orbit performance is described. Design trades were performed in which back DAR coating thickness was traded against thermal absorptance and performance under front and back (albedo) illumination. Typical examples of modeled cell performance under different scenarios are given. Experimental illuminated output data under back illumination for specific DAR coating thicknesses are also given. Computer modeling of the solar array using TRASYS and SINDA programs also provide on-orbit thermal data and performance predictions. The overall backside response from albedo illumination was found to make a considerable contribution to the total array performance, particularly during the early stages of space station assembly when the arrays are feathered.

Lillington, D. R.↗

Identifying Planetary Transit Candidates in TESS Full-frame Image Light Curves via Convolutional Neural Networks

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite(TESS)mission measured light from stars in∼75% of the sky throughout its 2 yr primary mission, resulting in millions of TESS 30-minute-cadence light curves to analyze in the search for transiting exoplanets. To search this vast data trove for transit signals, we aim to provide an approach that both is computationally efficient and produces highly performant predictions. This approach minimizes the required human search effort. We present a convolutional neural network, which we train to identify planetary transit signals and dismiss false positives. To make a prediction for a given light curve, our network requires no prior transit parameters identified using other methods. Our network performs inference on a TESS 30-minute-cadence light curve in∼5 ms on a single GPU, enabling large-scale archival searches. We present 181 new planet candidates identified by our network, which pass subsequent human vetting designed to rule out false positives.Our neural network model is additionally provided as open-source code for public use and extension

Gregory Olmschenk↗

Establishing performance metrics for quantitative non-targeted analysis: a demonstration using per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances

Abstract Non-targeted analysis (NTA) is an increasingly popular technique for characterizing undefined chemical analytes. Generating quantitative NTA (qNTA) concentration estimates requires the use of training data from calibration “surrogates,” which can yield diminished predictive performance relative to targeted analysis. To evaluate performance differences between targeted and qNTA approaches, we defined new metrics that convey predictive accuracy, uncertainty (using 95% inverse confidence intervals), and reliability (the extent to which confidence intervals contain true values). We calculated and examined these newly defined metrics across five quantitative approaches applied to a mixture of 29 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The quantitative approaches spanned a traditional targeted design using chemical-specific calibration curves to a generalizable qNTA design using bootstrap-sampled calibration values from “global” chemical surrogates. As expected, the targeted approaches performed best, with major benefits realized from matched calibration curves and internal standard correction. In comparison to the benchmark targeted approach, the most generalizable qNTA approach (using “global” surrogates) showed a decrease in accuracy by a factor of ~4, an increase in uncertainty by a factor of ~1000, and a decrease in reliability by ~5%, on average. Using “expert-selected” surrogates ( n = 3) instead of “global” surrogates ( n = 25) for qNTA yielded improvements in predictive accuracy (by ~1.5×) and uncertainty (by ~70×) but at the cost of further-reduced reliability (by ~5%). Overall, our results illustrate the utility of qNTA approaches for a subclass of emerging contaminants and present a framework on which to develop new approaches for more complex use cases. Graphical Abstract

Pu, Shirley (ORCID:0000000201223797)↗

Improving Coal-Fired Plant Performance Through Integrated Predictive and Condition-Based Monitoring Tools

The project demonstrated the ability to improve boiler performance and reliability through the integrated use of condition-based monitoring (CBM) and predictions of the impacts of coal quality on boiler operations at a full-scale coal-fired power plant. The advanced tool developed actively monitors and manages coal quality and overall boiler conditions that maximizes availability and maintains generating capacity while reducing cost. The tool is used to forecast and alert plant operators and engineers about poor boiler conditions which may occur as a result of incoming coal and/or current power plant operating conditions. The Combustion System Performance Indices (CSPI) and CoalTracker (CT) programs predicts fireside performance of the plant including slagging, fouling, erosion, slag flow, strength development (sintering/densification), and slag layer thickness based on the composition of delivered coal. CT program is tailored for each plant and is used to track the coal from the point of delivery to the burner. The most successful application of the CSPI-CT has been at plants where the coal composition is determined through the use of a full stream elemental analyzers based on prompt gamma neutron analysis (PGNAA). The CSPI-CT program information is used by coal procurement, coal mining and plant operations personnel to select and blend coal properties for the best plant performance.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Non-Electricity Based Renewable Fuels: Theory and Computation for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen

Dominated by photovoltaics and wind, current renewable energy sources generate mostly electricity, but 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels. Therefore, direct solar fuel generation would be a major breakthrough for the energy transition. Solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) is one of the very few potential routes towards scalable renewable fuels, but currently suffers from lack of an oxide working material that could optimally perform energy conversion within the thermodynamic boundary conditions. Theory and computation can contribute in two distinct ways, through materials search and discovery, but also by providing detailed mechanistic models for specific systems so to advance our understanding of possible design strategies. To enable high-throughput materials screening, we developed a defect graph neural network (dGNN) machine learning approach,[1] which accelerates the prediction of defect formation energies by replacing the tedious density functional theory (DFT) supercell calculations for all possible defect sites. This approach enables high-throughput database screening of oxides, which was integrated with thermodynamic modeling to extract the reduction entropies as additional selection criterion for STCH. Once potential candidate materials are identified, detailed models can guide materials design by predicting performance characteristics. One challenge is to quantitatively predict thermochemical equilibria at high concentrations when the redox active defects start to interact with each other, thereby impeding the formation of additional defects. Introducing a model for the free energy of defect interaction, parametrized on the basis of DFT data, we simulated the complete STCH redox cycle for (Sr,Ce)MnO3 alloys, achieving near-quantitative agreement with experimental data.[2] The analysis of these simulations reveals how defect interactions diminish the reduction entropy and H2 yield, suggesting to include these interactions in design considerations. Finally, we revisit the popular van't Hoff method for analyzing reduction enthalpies and entropies. This method is not ideal, as it involves a temperature-dependent convolution of gas-phase and solid-state entropies, causing uncertainties in the same order of magnitude as the physical quantities of interest. To avoid this problem, we suggest a simple alternative approach which can be applied to experimental and simulated data alike.

first-principles calculations↗

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗

Video frame prediction of microbial growth with a recurrent neural network

The recent explosion of interest and advances in machine learning technologies has opened the door to new analytical capabilities in microbiology. Using experimental data such as images or videos, machine learning, in particular deep learning with neural networks, can be harnessed to provide insights and predictions for microbial populations. This paper presents such an application in which a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) was used to perform prediction of microbial growth for a population of two Pseudomonas aeruginosa mutants. The RNN was trained on videos that were acquired previously using fluorescence microscopy and microfluidics. Of the 20 frames that make up each video, 10 were used as inputs to the network which outputs a prediction for the next 10 frames of the video. The accuracy of the network was evaluated by comparing the predicted frames to the original frames, as well as population curves and the number and size of individual colonies extracted from these frames. Overall, the growth predictions are found to be accurate in metrics such as image comparison, colony size, and total population. Yet, limitations exist due to the scarcity of available and comparable data in the literature, indicating a need for more studies. Both the successes and challenges of our approach are discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Aerodynamic and acoustic investigation of inverted velocity profile coannular exhaust nozzle models and development of aerodynamic and acoustic prediction procedures

Five co-annular nozzle models, covering a systematic variation of nozzle geometry, were tested statically over a range of exhaust conditions including inverted velocity profile (IVP) (fan to primary stream velocity ratio 1) and non IVP profiles. Fan nozzle pressure ratio (FNPR) was varied from 1.3 to 4.1 at primary nozzle pressure ratios (PNPR) of 1.53 and 2.0. Fan stream temperatures of 700 K (1260 deg R) and 1089 K(1960 deg R) were tested with primary stream temperatures of 700 K (1260 deg R), 811 K (1460 deg R), and 1089 K (1960 deg R). At fan and primary stream velocities of 610 and 427 m/sec (2000 and 1400 ft/sec), respectively, increasing fan radius ratio from 0.69 to 0.83 reduced peak perceived noise level (PNL) 3 dB, and an increase in primary radius ratio from 0 to 0.81 (fan radius ratio constant at 0.83) reduced peak PNL an additional 1.0 dB. There were no noise reductions at a fan stream velocity of 853 m/sec (2800 ft/sec). Increasing fan radius ratio from 0.69 to 0.83 reduced nozzle thrust coefficient 1.2 to 1.5% at a PNPR of 1.53, and 1.7 to 2.0% at a PNPR of 2.0. The developed acoustic prediction procedure collapsed the existing data with standard deviation varying from + or - 8 dB to + or - 7 dB. The aerodynamic performance prediction procedure collapsed thrust coefficient measurements to within + or - .004 at a FNPR of 4.0 and a PNPR of 2.0.

Larson, R. S.↗