Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “parameter sampling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Towards resolving protein structures at the atomic scale using atom probe tomography

In the field of Structural Biology, Atom Probe Tomography (APT) is in the nascent stages of development wherein coarse-grained visuals of proteins have been captured. The characterization of organic samples or biomolecules through the technique is currently limited to the detection of a few dominant signatures. The problem of indecipherable characterization can inherently be traced back to multiple forms of technique-specific responses to organic samples and consequent triggers leading to organic-sample and sample-medium interactions. While it is possible for captured manifestations of protein reconstructions to seemingly appear intact from a basic visual purview, the parameter-protein associative responses throughout the structure as a direct consequence of the inherent workings of the technique (until harmonized with organic sample complexity and behavior) and field evaporation-based factors make non-aberrative atomic associations infeasible. The work focused on identifying and theorizing the (above stated and other) fundamental mechanisms that stronghold the study of intricate atomic to higher order associations in proteins through APT. Attempts at structure elucidation of the cryogenic sample under study, through indirect associations (and methods) based on other imaging techniques, further revealed the distinct and highly distortive nature at the atomic scale deterring structural tunability and thus characterization of APT based cryogenic samples under analysis. As a direct counter to the atomic scale characterization problem, by taking the experiment-specific uncertainties, and probable APT-centric organic sample-based variabilities into account, a basic result is extracted and presented. Through mass-spectrometric and computational analysis, specific individual amino acids (Sulfur-containing protein-bound amino acids) in proteins and aspects of protein structure (probable backbone fragments, partial sequence - partial backbone portions) have been identified and characterized. Under analysis considerations, a few of the simplest known and easily inferable segments that favor structural deteriorations in the reconstructions are stated. Additionally, to overcome technique-specific deterrents to the characterization of biomolecules in cryogenic sample medium, the development of a protein-labeling strategy tailored to APT is suggested.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of hydride vapor phase epitaxy growth conditions on the degree of atomic ordering in GaInP

We report a systematic study of CuPt-type ordering in hydride vapor phase epitaxy (HVPE)-grown Ga 0.5 In 0.5 P. Selected-area electron diffraction reveals ordering in samples grown on (001) GaAs substrates offcut toward (1$\overline{1}$1)B. The ordering is single-variant, occurring only on (1$\overline{1}$1)B planes and not on ($\overline{1}$11)B. Quantitative analysis of the order parameter by high-resolution x-ray diffraction (HRXRD) indicates that ordering increases with deposition temperature in samples grown at 600–700 °C with a constant gas-phase V/III ratio ~3. Ordering increases with V/III ratio in the range of 1.3–6.7 at a constant deposition temperature of 650°C. Photoluminescence measurements correlate the order parameter with Ga0.5In0.5P bandgap contraction, though the contraction is larger than expected based on the magnitude of order parameters measured by HRXRD. A possible reason for this discrepancy is that the photoluminescence emission occurs in the lower bandgap ordered domains, which are small and evenly dispersed throughout the material. We also show that the degree of ordering decreases with growth rate, disappearing at ~60 µm/h. The HVPE-grown material exhibits a generally weaker ordering than organometallic vapor phase epitaxy (OMVPE)-grown material, likely due to the moderate V/III ratios employed, in contrast to the V/III ratios in the 100s typical of OMVPE. However, the tendency for ordering to increase with V/III ratio suggests that the same dimer-induced stress mechanism used to explain the occurrence of ordering in OMVPE-grown material also applies to HVPE. The tendencies for ordering to increase with deposition temperature and decrease with growth rate show that kinetics limit the degree of ordering, also in agreement with OMVPE trends.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microstructural characterization and equibiaxial flexural strength of CeO 2 and Ti-doped CeO 2

In this study, the synthesis of CeO 2 and titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) doped CeO 2 (TDC) monoliths are investigated, and their fracture strength is assessed using an equibiaxial flexure testing technique at room temperature. Pellets were synthesized using conventional powder processing and sintering methods to produce the desired characteristics. The TiO 2 dopant concentration was optimized at 0.1 wt % TiO 2 to obtain dense, solid-solution pellets with an enhanced grain microstructure. A ball-on-ring fixture was used to obtain the TRS and Weibull parameters of over 30 pellets for CeO 2 and 0.1 wt % TDC to compare fracture behavior. The TRS of CeO 2 pellets ranged from 88 to 160 MPa and the TRS of 0.1 wt % TDC pellets ranged from 102 to 171 MPa, both being consistent with published values. Weibull parameters, such as characteristic strength and Weibull modulus, were extracted as 129 MPa and 8.5 for CeO 2 and 150 MPa and 9.3 for 0.1 wt % TDC, respectively. Although Hertzian contact damage was observed on compressive surfaces, failure initiation occurred on the tensile surfaces of both types of samples. Fracture surface analysis for CeO 2 indicated a predominantly intergranular fracture while 0.1 wt % TDC had a predominantly transgranular fracture mode. Finally, the TRS of 0.1 wt % TDC resulted in increased Weibull parameters when compared to CeO 2 , indicating sample chemistry and microstructure impact mechanical behavior for these samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

unWISE tomography of Planck CMB lensing

CMB lensing tomography, or the cross-correlation between CMB lensing maps and large-scale structure tracers over a well-defined redshift range, has the potential to map the amplitude and growth of structure over cosmic time, provide some of the most stringent tests of gravity, and break important degeneracies between cosmological parameters. In this work, we use the unWISE galaxy catalog to provide three samples at median redshifts z ~ 0.6, 1.1 and 1.5, fully spanning the Dark Energy dominated era, together with the most recent Planck CMB lensing maps. We obtain a combined cross-correlation significance S/N = 79.3 over the range of scales 100 < ℓ < 1000. We measure the redshift distribution of unWISE sources by a combination of cross-matching with the COSMOS photometric catalog and cross-correlation with BOSS galaxies and quasars and eBOSS quasars. We also show that magnification bias must be included in our analysis and perform a number of null tests. In a companion paper, we explore the derived cosmological parameters by modeling the non-linearities and propagating the redshift distribution uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determinants of photochemical characteristics of the photosynthetic electron transport chain of maize

The photosynthetic electron transport chain (ETC) is the bridge that links energy harvesting during the photophysical reactions at one end and energy consumption during the biochemical reactions at the other. Its functioning is thus fundamental for the proper balance between energy supply and demand in photosynthesis. Currently, there is a lack of understanding regarding how the structural properties of the ETC are affected by nutrient availability and plant developmental stages, which is a major roadblock to comprehensive modeling of photosynthesis. Redox parameters reflect the structural controls of ETC on the photochemical reactions and electron transport. We conducted joint measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) and gas exchange under systematically varying environmental conditions and growth stages of maize and sampled foliar nutrient contents. We utilized the recently developed steady-state photochemical model to infer redox parameters of electron transport from these measurements. We found that the inferred values of these photochemical redox parameters varied with leaf macronutrient content. These variations may be caused either directly by these nutrients being components of protein complexes on the ETC or indirectly by their impacts on the structural integrity of the thylakoid and feedback from the biochemical reactions. Also, the redox parameters varied with plant morphology and developmental stage, reflecting seasonal changes in the structural properties of the ETC. Our findings will facilitate the parameterization and simulation of complete models of photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Initial Benchmarks of UV LEDs and Comparisons with White LEDs

The primary goal of this report is to benchmark the initial level of performance of a selection of commercial UV LEDs across all three bands (i.e., UV-A, UV-B, UV-C). To provide the initial performance benchmarks, a test matrix containing 13 different UV LED products was created in association with the LED Systems Reliability Consortium (LSRC). The products in this test matrix were all commercially available as of June 2021, and at least 22 samples of each product were tested. In addition, two common, commercial white LEDs were tested to provide a benchmark against blue-pumped white LEDs. Testing of the samples included electrical performance testing (e.g., current-voltage measurements) and photometric testing in a calibrated integrating sphere capable of measuring devices in the UV-A, UV-B, and UV-C bands. The electrical testing provided insights into the performance of the semiconductor layers in the LEDs, allowing parameters such as the threshold voltage (V th ) and serial resistance (R serial ) of each sample to be determined. The photometric testing provided insights into emission wavelengths, peak shapes, and radiant efficiencies for each sample. Combined, the information from these tests permits the overall device efficiencies to be compared and provides insights into the electrical and optical performance of the technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quality Assurance methodology for the ATLAS Inner Tracker strip sensor production

The production of the strip sensors for the ATLAS Inner Tracker (ITk) will start in 2020. Nearly 22,000 large area sensors will be produced over a period of about five years by Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. (HPK). The institutes involved in the sensor development and production are committed to deliver and maintain the highest quality sensors for the experiment. A Quality Assurance (QA) strategy has been prepared to be carried out during the whole production period. Once the process has been characterized as providing the required pre-irradiation specifications and the proper radiation hardness, the onus is on the manufacturer to rigidly stick to that qualified process. Still, sample testing with specific device-element structures and irradiation of devices should be implemented by the ITk sensor collaboration. A detailed irradiation and testing plan has been prepared by the ATLAS-ITk Collaboration, together with a newly designed test chip with specific structures to monitor different key technological and device parameters during the whole production. The tests and irradiations will be carried out on a sample basis. In order to have a practical methodology, samples from alternating batches will be sent for irradiations with protons, neutrons and gammas, and then tested in order to check that the characteristics remain within specifications. Here we present the detailed plan and the design and test methods for the structures in the test chip.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Probabilistic Autoencoder for Type Ia Supernova Spectral Time Series

We construct a physically parameterized probabilistic autoencoder (PAE) to learn the intrinsic diversity of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from a sparse set of spectral time series. The PAE is a two-stage generative model, composed of an autoencoder that is interpreted probabilistically after training using a normalizing flow. We demonstrate that the PAE learns a low-dimensional latent space that captures the nonlinear range of features that exists within the population and can accurately model the spectral evolution of SNe Ia across the full range of wavelength and observation times directly from the data. By introducing a correlation penalty term and multistage training setup alongside our physically parameterized network, we show that intrinsic and extrinsic modes of variability can be separated during training, removing the need for the additional models to perform magnitude standardization. We then use our PAE in a number of downstream tasks on SNe Ia for increasingly precise cosmological analyses, including the automatic detection of SN outliers, the generation of samples consistent with the data distribution, and solving the inverse problem in the presence of noisy and incomplete data to constrain cosmological distance measurements. We find that the optimal number of intrinsic model parameters appears to be three, in line with previous studies, and show that we can standardize our test sample of SNe Ia with an rms of 0.091 ± 0.010 mag, which corresponds to 0.074 ± 0.010 mag if peculiar velocity contributions are removed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microstructure-Based Estimation of Strength and Ductility Distributions for \(\alpha +\beta \) Titanium Alloys

Titanium alloys are processed to develop a wide range of microstructure configurations and therefore material properties. While these properties are typically measured experimentally, a framework for property prediction could greatly enhance alloy design and manufacturing. In this work, a microstructure-sensitive framework is presented for the prediction of strength and ductility as well as estimates of the bounds in variability for these properties. The framework explicitly considers distributions of microstructure via new approaches for instantiation of structure in synthetic samples. The parametric evaluation strategy, including the finite element simulation package FEpX, is used to create and test virtual polycrystalline samples to evaluate the variability bounds of mechanical properties in Ti-6Al-4V. Critical parameters for the property evaluation framework are provided by measurements of single crystal properties and advanced characterization of microstructure and slip system strengths in 2D and 3D. Property distributions for yield strength and ductility are presented, along with the validation and verification steps undertaken. Comparisons between strain localization and slip activity in virtual samples and in experimental grain-scale strain measurements are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Cosmological Biases from Host Galaxy Mismatch of Type Ia Supernovae

Abstract Redshift measurements, primarily obtained from host galaxies, are essential for inferring cosmological parameters from type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). Matching SNe to host galaxies using images is nontrivial, resulting in a subset of SNe with mismatched hosts and thus incorrect redshifts. We evaluate the host galaxy mismatch rate and resulting biases on cosmological parameters from simulations modeled after the Dark Energy Survey 5 Yr (DES-SN5YR) photometric sample. For both DES-SN5YR data and simulations, we employ the directional light radius method for host galaxy matching. In our SN Ia simulations, we find that 1.7% of SNe are matched to the wrong host galaxy, with redshift differences between the true and matched hosts of up to 0.6. Using our analysis pipeline, we determine the shift in the dark energy equation of state parameter (Δ w ) due to including SNe with incorrect host galaxy matches. For SN Ia–only simulations, we find Δ w = 0.0013 ± 0.0026 with constraints from the cosmic microwave background. Including core-collapse SNe and peculiar SNe Ia in the simulation, we find that Δ w ranges from 0.0009 to 0.0032, depending on the photometric classifier used. This bias is an order of magnitude smaller than the expected total uncertainty on w from the DES-SN5YR sample of ∼0.03. We conclude that the bias on w from host galaxy mismatch is much smaller than the uncertainties expected from the DES-SN5YR sample, but we encourage further studies to reduce this bias through better host-matching algorithms or selection cuts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The influence of hydrostatic pressure and annealing conditions on the magnetostructural transitions in MnCoGe

In this work, the phase transitions of stoichiometric MnCoGe alloys were studied by systematically varying the annealing conditions and applying hydrostatic pressure. First-order martensitic structural transitions from the Ni2In-type hexagonal austenite phase to the TiNiSi-type orthorhombic martensite phase spanned a wide temperature window (>200 K) as a result of quenching the samples at temperatures ranging from the solid phase at 700 °C to the liquid phase at 1150 °C. Despite the large variation in their structural transition temperatures, the changes in cell parameters across the structural transitions and the Curie–Weiss temperatures of the martensite/austenite phase were relatively small. For the sample quenched from 800 °C, coupled magnetostructural transitions were observed, and the largest maximum magnetic entropy change was found to be -ΔS max = 33:6 J/kg K for a 7-T field change. The coupled magnetostructural transitions and the corresponding magnetic entropy enhancements were found to also be achievable by applying hydrostatic pressures. Meanwhile, as the quenching temperatures or hydrostatic pressures increased, the first-order martensitic structural transition shifted toward lower temperature until it was ultimately absent, in which case only the crystal structure and magnetic transition of the Ni 2 In-type hexagonal austenite phase were present.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interplay between element-specific distortions and electrocatalytic oxygen evolution for cobalt–iron hydroxides

A microscopic understanding of how Fe-doping of Co(OH) 2 improves electrocatalytic oxygen evolution remains elusive. We study two Co 1–x Fex(OH) 2 series that differ in fabrication protocol and find composition alone poorly correlates to catalyst performance. Structural descriptors extracted using X-ray diffraction, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy reveal element-specific distortions in Co 1–x Fe x (OH) 2 . These structural descriptors are composition-dependent within individual sample series but inconsistent across fabrication protocols, revealing fabrication-dependence in catalyst microstructure. Correlations between structural parameters from different techniques show that Fe–O resists bond length changes, forcing distortion of Co environments. We find the difference in O–M–O bond angles between Co and Fe sites to correlate with electrocatalytic behavior across both sample series, which we attribute to asymmetric distortion of potential energy surfaces for the Co(III) to Co(IV) oxidation. A Tafel slope consistent with a rate-limiting step without electron transfer emerges as the O–Co–O angle decreases, implying a distortion-induced transition in the rate-limiting step. The fabrication dependence of electronic and bonding structure in the catalysts should be considered in theoretical and high-throughput analyses of electrocatalyst materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Densification and Immobilization of AgI-Containing Iodine Waste Forms Using Spark Plasma Sintering

Here in this study, porous Ag-xerogel (Ag-Xero), Ag-faujasite (Ag-FAU) zeolite, and Ag-mordenite (Ag-MOR) zeolite sorbents were loaded with iodine gas [I 2 (g)] under saturated conditions at 150 °C for 24 h, followed by densification and consolidation into monolithic waste forms using spark plasma sintering (SPS). For Ag-Xero materials, SPS pellets were made with as-loaded samples, while others were made with preheated (PH; 500 °C for 2 h) samples to help with densification. SPS processing was conducted at 50 MPa under different temperatures (T = 200–800 °C) for different times (t = 0.5–30 min), where eleven AgI-Xero samples, five AgI-FAU, and two AgI-MOR separate samples were produced. The primary goal was to look for the optimum processing parameters for each material to yield pellets with high iodine retentions, high densities, and low porosities while preventing AgI decomposition. The Ag-Xero showed the highest iodine loadings (qe = 470 mg g –1 ) compared to Ag-FAU (qe = 368 mg g –1 ) and Ag-MOR (qe = 108 mg g –1 ). Measured iodine concentrations were the highest in AgI-Xero pellets without PH, followed by AgI-Xero with PH, AgI-FAU, and then AgI-MOR. Silver utilization (I/Ag on a mol % basis) values were in the order of AgI-MOR ≈ AgI-Xero (no PH) > AgI-Xero (PH) > AgI-FAU. Chemical durabilities of SPS-densified AgI-Xero (PH) pellets were very favorable, with lower releases than SPS pellets made from AgI-Xero samples without PH. These results show promise for iodine waste form production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Profiled Feldman-Cousins Method for Confidence Interval Construction for the Nova 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis

The small interaction cross-section of neutrinos makes experimental neutrino physics particularly responsive to technological advancements. A significant development leveraged by the NOvA experiment is large-scale parallel processing, enabling novel computational approaches to longstanding experimental challenges. Central to managing the resulting high-throughput data is NOvA’s implementation of the Freight Train model, designed for efficient data production and handling.This dissertation details the methodology and execution of the NOvA 2024 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis, supported by a comprehensive dataset spanning ten years. It emphasizes frequentist results refined through the Feldman-Cousins (FC) technique, specifically addressing confidence interval corrections in parameter estimation. The computational intensity associated with Feldman-Cousins arises from extensive Monte Carlo simulations, which were substantially mitigated through parallel computing on the Perlmutter supercomputer at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), employing the MPI framework.To further enhance computational efficiency, an Importance Sampling method is introduced and evaluated, demonstrating significant potential to reduce complexity, particularly in exploring extreme parameter space regions. This thesis presents both the successful application of advanced computational resources and the development of sophisticated statistical techniques, aiming to enhance the precision and scope of neutrino oscillation analyses.

Dye ajdye11190@gmail.com, Andrew Joseph [Mississip↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updating Critical Temperature Calculations for Several Secondary High Explosives

In designing experiments where high explosives (HEs) are heated, it is important to have an understanding of where thermal runaway may occur. This determination is often done by using the Frank-Kamenetskii (FK) equation. For several highly-studied HEs, the parameters necessary for FK calculations are typically referenced from decades-old literature, and more recent experimental data have shown that these values require adjustment. For example, some of the legacy parameters dangerously overpredict the critical temperature by tens of degrees relative to more recent observed values. Herein, we first summarize historical results and highlight the importance of insulation effects when estimating critical temperatures for small samples, which is especially relevant to small-scale aging, compatibility, and characterization experiments. Here, we then present updated FK parameters for several common secondary CHNO HEs like RDX, HMX, PETN, and TATB, as well as the first reported values for 2,6-Diamino-3,5-dinitropyrazine-1-oxide (LLM-105). Our updated parameters produce critical-temperature curves that are consistent with both mm-scale differentical scanning calorimetry (DSC) measurements and cm-scale data from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory one-dimensional time-to-explosion (ODTX) experiment. In analyzing the critical temperature versus sample size curves derived from the transcendental FK equation, we discovered that these curves are remarkably well described by a simple power-law function with a universal power of 0.142 and a HE-specific scaling factor.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deciphering the Scattering of Mechanically Driven Polymers Using Deep Learning

Here, we present a deep learning approach for analyzing two-dimensional scattering data of semiflexible polymers under external forces. In our framework, scattering functions are compressed into a three-dimensional latent space using a Variational Autoencoder (VAE), and two converter networks establish a bidirectional mapping between the polymer parameters (bending modulus, stretching force, and steady shear) and the scattering functions. The training data are generated using off-lattice Monte Carlo simulations to avoid the orientational bias inherent in lattice models, ensuring robust sampling of polymer conformations. The feasibility of this bidirectional mapping is demonstrated by the organized distribution of polymer parameters in the latent space. By integrating the converter networks with the VAE, we obtain a generator that produces scattering functions from given polymer parameters and an inferrer that directly extracts polymer parameters from scattering data. While the generator can be utilized in a traditional least-squares fitting procedure, the inferrer produces comparable results in a single pass and operates 3 orders of magnitude faster. This approach offers a scalable automated tool for polymer scattering analysis and provides a promising foundation for extending the method to other scattering models, experimental validation, and the study of time-dependent scattering data.

Ding, Lijie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗