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How Good Is Your Location? Comparing and Understanding the Uncertainties in Location for the 1993 Rock Valley Sequence

Accurate event locations are important for many endeavors in seismology, and understanding the factors that contribute to uncertainties in those locations is complex. In this article, we present a case study that takes an in-depth look at the accuracy and precision possible for locating nine shallow earthquakes in the Rock Valley fault zone in southern Nevada. These events are targeted by the Rock Valley Direct Comparison phase of the Source Physics Experiment, as candidates for the colocation of a chemical explosion with an earthquake hypocenter to directly compare earthquake and explosion sources. For this comparison, it is necessary to determine earthquake hypocenters as accurately as possible so that different source types have nearly identical locations. Our investigations include uncertainty analysis from different sets of phase arrivals, stations, velocity models, and location algorithms. For a common set of phase arrivals and stations, we find that epicentral locations from different combinations of velocity models and algorithms are within 600 m of one another in most cases. Event depths exhibit greater uncertainties, but focusing on the S-P times at the nearest station allows for estimates within approximately 500 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dataset documenting rock core evaluation from Brady’s Hot Springs well BCH-03

Nineteen short sections of core were taken from the BCH-03 borehole at Brady’s Hot Springs, Churchill County, Nevada, between 2,945 ft and the total depth of 4,885 ft. This well is in a geothermal field. Data collected includes thin section photomicrographs, Medical CT tiff stacks, microCT tiff stacks, XRD, porosity (from thin sections, He porosimeter, microCT segmentation) and P/S wave velocities.

Brady geothermal field↗

Magnitude and Timing of the Tiltill Rockslide in Yosemite National Park, California

Yosemite National Park, California, is one of the best-documented sites of historical rockfalls and other rock slope failures; however, past work shows that this record does not capture the infrequent largest occurrences, prehistoric events orders of magnitude larger than the largest historic ones. These large prehistoric events are evident as voluminous bouldery landslide deposits, permitting volume and age quantification to better understand local volume–frequency relationships, potential triggering mechanisms, and the hazard such events might pose. The Tiltill rockslide in northern Yosemite is one such example, consisting of 2.1 × 10 6 m 3 ± 1.6 × 10 6 m 3 of talus (1.5 × 10 6 m 3 original volume of rock mass) that slid across the floor of Tiltill Valley, partially damming Tiltill Creek to create a seasonal pond that drains through and around the rockslide mass. This volume and the rockslide's effective coefficient of friction, 0.47, place it near the boundary between long-runout landslides and ordinary Coulomb failure. Although the rockslide superficially appears to consist of two separate lobes, statistically indistinguishable 10 Be exposure dates from eight samples indicate a single event that occurred at 13.0 ± 0.8 ka. The age of the Tiltill rockslide and its relatively low elevation compared to equilibrium line altitudes at this place and time make glacial debutressing a highly unlikely triggering mechanism. Additionally, seismic shaking associated with fault rupture along the eastern Sierra Nevada is shown to be a plausible but unverified trigger.

10Be cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating↗

Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: (Jan 1 - Dec 31 2018)

During the late 1950s, the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) (now the U.S. Department of Energy [DOE]) conducted a series of safety experiments to determine if a nuclear device subjected to a large conventional explosives detonation would result in a nuclear yield. The AEC obtained temporary use of a large portion of western Emigrant Valley from the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) for one of these experiments: Project 57. Following the Project 57 safety experiment, the AEC fenced the contaminated area and returned control of the surrounding land to the DOD. Emigrant Valley is part of the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). For safety and security reasons, access to the NTTR is controlled using both physical (i.e., fences) and administrative (e.g., signs and postings) controls. Therefore, the public cannot access the Project 57 site and there are no known human receptors that routinely access the site. Project 57 was detonated on April 24, 1957, in Emigrant Valley approximately 13 mi (21 km) northeast of the north end of Yucca Flat. This test was undertaken to develop: (1) a means of estimating immediate distribution and long-term redistribution of plutonium dispersed during a nonnuclear detonation; (2) biomedical evaluation techniques for use in likely plutonium-laden environments; (3) methods of decontaminating ground areas, pavements, and building materials; and (4) alpha survey instruments and field monitoring procedures to promptly estimate contaminant deposition. Although the test did not result in the fission of nuclear materials, it did disseminate plutonium across the ground surface. Various radiological surveys have been performed in the area since Project 57 was conducted. The AEC delineated the area containing radioactive material based on radioactivity surveys performed shortly after the test was conducted. A designated Contamination Area (CA), marked by a fence, was established later. The distribution of americium-241 (Am-241) in the area was determined again in a 1997 flyover, which showed Am-241 ranging from as much as 70,000 counts per second (cps) at ground zero to background (<70 cps). This survey also documented Am-241 radioactivity on the ground surface beyond the east side CA fence at levels of up to 150 cps. In 2007, the DOE expanded the CA by posting “Contamination Area” signs 200 ft to 400 ft (60 m to 120 m) beyond the original fence, which formed a new CA boundary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Free-field Ground Motion Induced by Underground Explosions at Aqueduct Mesa with Predictions for Physical Experiment One (PE1)

We fit standard power-law models for ground acceleration and particle velocity using scaled ground motion observations from underground nuclear explosions at Aqueduct Mesa on the Nevada National Security Site. The models are then validated using small-scale high-explosive (HE) test data from nearby Rainier Mesa. The comparison between model predictions and observations is good and can be made more favorable if the assumed yield for the HE tests are doubled. Further validation is made with a numerical experiment that additionally shows a transition in ground motion attenuation to elastic propagation (1 = r). An extended model is provided to incorporate the long-range transition in attenuation, which results in increased ground motions at farther range. We then make predictions for the field experiment, Physical Experiment One (PE1), to take place in P-tunnel on Aqueduct Mesa, and suggest that the models could be used in planning various operations for PE1.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Atomic kinetics of laboratory photoionized plasmas relevant to astrophysics. Final report

The major goal of this project was to study the atomic and radiation physics of photoionized plasmas driven by a broadband x-ray flux and its impact on plasma x-ray heating and ionization, emissivity and opacity, and radiation-hydrodynamics. This problem is relevant to the physics of accretion disks surrounding black holes, x-ray binaries, and active galactic nuclei in astrophysics. In addition, it is also important for understanding non-equilibrium laboratory plasmas driven by a distribution of photons. To this end, and motivated by previous and ongoing gas-cell experiments performed by the PI at the Z facility of Sandia National Laboratories, we developed a new experimental platform at the 1MA Zebra pulsed power accelerator of the University of Nevada, Reno based on using a gas jet produced by a supersonic nozzle. The gas jet is turned into a photoionized plasma driven by the x- ray flux from a wire-array z-pinch. Establishing this new experimental platform at Zebra was a major goal of this project. In addition, we have also dedicated effort to continue complementary experiments at the Z facility using the gas-cell photoionized plasma set up with support from the Fundamental Science Program at Z as well as to perform data processing and analysis, and theory and modeling simulations, including electron kinetics and radiation-hydrodynamics. Since we seek to test and establish what physics models are needed to describe photoionized plasma guided by experimental observation, these complementary experimental efforts were central to achieving the goals of this project.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

COMET/ZEUS Activation Foils Report for Irradiations IER-241 and IER-261

The goal of this work was to determine the internal neutron spectrum of the COMET/ZEUS assembly using activation foils. Similar measurements were performed on the COMET assembly when it was located at the Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility (LACEF) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The present measurements were performed after the COMET assembly was moved to the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) located in the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The December 2012 COMET/ZEUS irradiation was the first in a series of experiments, and the COMET/ZEUS assembly was selected because of operational readiness and authorization to run specific targets. The August 2013 irradiation was the second in the series and involved only small changes in the configuration. This report describes the unfolding of the activation foils to determine the internal neutron spectra.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Simulations of the Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE)

The Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) project will include two surface energetic events (chemical explosions) conducted as close as possible to ground zero (GZ) of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase II Dry Alluvium (DAG) site in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Seismic and acoustic data from these events will complement DAG buried source data and improve interpretation of speed-of-sound signals from explosions for national security programs. A satellite image of the region near GZ along with some of the recording stations that we will use for the far- eld simulation is shown in Figure 1. The working design of the HE package is shown in the Figure 2 and is roughly a cube of C-4 bricks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Monitoring Potential Transport of Radioactive Contaminants in Shallow Ephemeral Channels: FY2019

Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted a field assessment of the potential for contaminated soil to be transported from the Smoky Site Contamination Area (CA) because of storm runoff. This activity supported U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) efforts to establish post-closure monitoring plans for the Smoky Site Soils Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 550. The work was intended to confirm the likely mechanism of transport and determine the meteorological conditions that might cause the movement of contaminated soils, as well as determine the particle size fraction most closely associated with transported radionuclide-contaminated soils. These data will facilitate the design of the appropriate post-closure monitoring program. In 2011, DRI installed a meteorological monitoring station on the west side of the Smoky Site CA and a hydrologic (runoff) monitoring station within the CA, near the east side. The meteorological station collected air temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation, barometric pressure, soil temperature, and soil water content data. The maximum, minimum, and average or total values (as appropriate) for each of these parameters were recorded for each 10-minute interval. The maximum, minimum, and average water depth in the flume installed at the hydrologic station were also recorded for each 10-minute interval. This report presents the data collected from these stations during fiscal year (FY) 2019. During the FY2019 reporting period, the warmest months were June, July, and August and the coldest were December and February. The highest monthly solar radiation (i.e., sunshine) values were recorded in June, July, and August, whereas December through February had the lowest solar radiation values. Monthly mean wind speeds were highest in the spring (April) and early summer (June). Winds were predominantly from the north, except in February, July, August, and September when winds were mostly from the west. The monthly average relative humidity ranged from 17 percent to approximately 60 percent. Humidity was lowest in the summer and highest in the winter. Monthly total precipitation ranged from 0.0 during August and September to 2.22 inches (in) (56.39 millimeters [mm]) in February. Total precipitation for FY2019 was 7.83 in (198.88 mm). During the reporting period, a single, nonzero, flow event was recorded at the flume. This occurred over two days between March 6 and 7, 2019, in response to 1.16 in (29.46 mm) of precipitation falling within 9.3 hours on March 6, 2019. This event produced a peak water depth of 0.39 in (0.99 centimeters [cm]) in the flume, and runoff was measured for approximately 23.5 hours. However, the maximum recorded flow depth was less than the limit for flow discharge and velocity that can be calculated for the six-inch (15 cm) throat of a Parshall flume. The runoff event produced insufficient flow velocities through the natural channel to cause local erosion and transport of bedload materials. No bedload samples were collected for radiological analysis. Observing meteorological and environmental conditions that lead to storm runoff will help identify the parameters and threshold conditions that should be incorporated into post-closure monitoring plans for this and similar Soils CAU sites. Routine monitoring of meteorological and hydrologic parameters at the Smoky Site CA has been discontinued at the request of EM NV, effective at the conclusion of FY2019. Environmental data acquisition was completed and the meteorological and runoff monitoring stations were removed from the Smoky Site on October 15, 2019.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FY 2019 Site-Directed Research & Development (Annual Report Overview)

This overview of the Fiscal Year 2019 Site-Directed Research & Development program and the Nevada National Security Site contains information regarding the program’s history and growth, leadership, project selection process, present areas of research, highlights of significant accomplishments and awards, noteworthy people, and performance metrics.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NNSS Soils Monitoring: Plutonium Valley (CAU 366) FY2019

Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted a field assessment of the potential for radionuclide-contaminated soil to be transported from the Plutonium Valley Dispersion Sites Contamination Area (CA) because of both wind and storm water runoff. This activity supported U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) efforts to establish post-closure monitoring plans for the Plutonium Valley Dispersion Sites Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 366. The DRI task was intended to identify the likely mechanism(s) of transport and determine the meteorological conditions that might cause the movement of radionuclide-contaminated soils. The emphasis of the work was on collecting sediment transported by channelized storm runoff and measuring airborne dust concentrations and associated wind conditions. These data will facilitate an appropriate post-closure monitoring program. In 2011, DRI installed meteorological monitoring stations north and south of the Plutonium Valley CA—known as Pu Valley North and Pu Valley South, respectively—as well as a fluvial sediment sampling station within the CA. Since installation, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation, barometric pressure, soil temperature, volumetric soil moisture content, and airborne particulate concentrations have been collected at both meteorological stations. The maximum, minimum, and average or total (as appropriate) for each of these parameters were recorded for each 10-minute interval. The sediment sampling station included an automatically activated sampling pump with collection bottles for suspended sediment, which was activated when sufficient flow was present in the channel, and passive traps for bedload material that was transported down the channel during runoff events. This report presents data collected from these stations during fiscal year (FY) 2019. During the FY2019 (October 1, 2018, through September 30, 2019) reporting period, the warmest month was July and the coldest month was February. Monthly total solar radiation was highest in June or July (depending on the station) and lowest in December. Monthly mean wind speeds were highest during February. At the Pu Valley North station, winds were commonly northerly, northwesterly, and southerly. At the Pu Valley South station, the wind direction was more variable and winds frequently came from most directions, excluding westerly and northwesterly winds. Winds above 15.0 miles per hour (mph) (24.1 kilometers per hour [km/hr]) were frequently southerly at both stations, and less-frequent strong winds were northerly (at the Pu Valley South station) or northwesterly (at the Pu Valley North station). Monthly average relative humidity ranged from 18 percent in August to 62 percent in January and February. Monthly total precipitation ranged from zero at both stations in September to 2.23 inches (in) (56.6 millimeters [mm]) during February at the Pu Valley South station and 2.09 in (53.1 mm) during March at the Pu Valley North station. From October 1, 2018, through September 30, 2019, the total precipitation was 8.23 in (209 mm) and 8.15 in (207 mm) at the Pu Valley South and Pu Valley North stations, respectively. The largest daily precipitation totals of 1.46 in (37.1 mm) and 1.14 in (29.0 mm) occurred at the Pu Valley South and Pu Valley North stations, respectively, on March 6, 2019. However, the ISCO autosampler was not activated during any storm event in FY2019 because the channel water depth measurements were insufficient for suspended sediment sample collection. Additionally, because no significant flow through the channel was indicated, no bedload samples were collected. Light breezes of 0.0 mph to 5.0 mph (0.0 km/hr to 8.0 km/hr) occurred most frequently (approximately 55 percent to 57 percent of the time). The frequency of occurrence diminished exponentially as the wind speed increased such that winds in excess of 25.0 mph (40.2 km/hr) occurred less than 0.01 percent of the time. Winds in excess of 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr) were most commonly southerly, which is likely controlled by the topography of the valley because topographic highs define the east and west sides of the valley and converge toward the north.The concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 micrometers [μm]) and PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm) in the air generally increase as wind speed increases. However, the particle profiler at the Pu Valley South station regularly malfunctioned, which resulted in poor data quality and a limited period of record within FY2019. Therefore, discussion of the annual dust observations is mostly limited to the Pu Valley North station. At the Pu Valley North station, significant increases in windblown dust concentrations were observed when wind speeds exceeded 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr), especially during southerly winds. When all wind speeds were considered, high dust concentrations at the Pu Valley North station were frequently associated with northerly, northwesterly, or southerly winds. The majority of PM10 transport at the Pu Valley North station occurred when winds were blowing northerly and northwesterly because of the high frequency of winds up to 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr). The ratio of PM10 to PM2.5 is a qualitative indicator of the proximity of dust sources to the observation point and the values of the PM10 to PM2.5 ratio tend to be higher nearer to the source. The PM10 to PM2.5 ratio increased from 1.2 to 2.8 with higher wind speeds at the Pu Valley North station. This increase suggests that some locally sourced PM10 was present in the air when local winds exceeded 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr). Local dust suspension is interpreted during major dust events when peaks in the PM10 to PM2.5 ratio occur simultaneously with the maximum wind speed and the peak PM10 concentration. Analysis of the five major dust events in FY2019 revealed that northerly winds were dominant in three events and southerly winds were dominant in two events. Local suspension of dust within Plutonium Valley is suspected to have occurred during two of the five major events (April 9, 2019, and September 28 to 29, 2019), and a nonlocal source of dust is presumed for the three other major dust events (October 14, 2018; May 16, 2019; and September 2, 2019). The three suspected regional dust transport events exhibited winds that typically did not exceed the 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr) wind speed threshold for local dust transport and featured PM10 to PM2.5 ratios that indicate large-scale regional dust transport. Similar event characteristics (e.g., wind speed and PM10 concentration) were observed at air monitoring stations approximately 70 mi (113 km) to the northwest within the Tonopah Test Range (TTR). Therefore, these three regional events may not reflect transport from the Plutonium Valley CA. Routine monitoring of meteorological and hydrologic parameters at Plutonium Valley has been discontinued at the request of EM NV, effective at the conclusion of FY2019. Environmental data acquisition has been completed, and both Pu Valley North and Pu Valley South meteorological stations within Plutonium Valley as well as the ISCO autosampler station within the CA were removed on October 14, 2019.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Atomic Cannon: Upshot-Knothole Grable

The May 25, 1952, Upshot-Knothole Grable event, aka Atomic Annie, proof tested a tactical nuclear weapon fashioned into a 280 mm cannon shell and fired from the Army’s M65 artillery piece. Travelling nearly seven miles downrange, Grable detonated with a force of fifteen kilotons 500 feet over a dry lake bed on the Nevada Test Site known as Frenchman Flat.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Laser Plasma Interaction in the MG Magnetic Field (Final Report)

Strong magnetic fields change properties of plasma. Employment of the magnetic fields can improve conditions for inertial confinement fusion. Compression and heating of the magnetized plasma is a base of the MagLIF pulsed power approach to the controlled fusion. Study of expansion and heating of plasma in the external magnetic fields, development of plasma instabilities, parametric and other effects are important for basic physics and applications. The main goal of the research for the grant was experimental investigation of laser produced plasma in the well characterized and controlled MG magnetic fields. We developed a platform for investigation of high intensity laser-plasma interaction (LPI) in the MG fields using a university-scale pulsed power machine. A Zebra machine at UNR generated transverse magnetic fields of 3 MG on the surface of the rod load and longitudinal fields of 1.4 MG in the coil loads. The magnetic fields were characterized with two-color Faraday rotation diagnostics. The pulsed power machine provided almost static magnetic fields for LPI compared to the much faster laser driven magnetic fields. We found that eddy currents in the rising magnetic field generate plasma on the metal targets. Eddy currents did not impact Si and CH dielectric targets. A Leopard laser with intensity in the focus up to 10 19 W/cm 2 produced plasma in the MG magnetic fields. The modified reflected Faraday diagnostics was used to study laser driven B-field at the MTW laser at Laboratory for Laser Energetics, UR. We demonstrated a slow dependence of the magnetic field in the coil on the applied laser intensity. The magnetic field increased by a factor of 2 if laser intensity increased by a factor of 30. This scaling is important for comparison of experiments at different laser facilities. Expansion of the plasma in the 2-3 MG external B-field was studied. Laser-produced plasma in the azimuthal magnetic field took the unique form of a thin disc expanding radially with a velocity of 250 km/s and confined in the vertical direction. A HYDRA MHD program at the University of Rochester was applied for simulations of LPI in the magnetic field B >3 MG. Simulations for the plasma disc parameters and the expansion dynamics were in a good agreement with experiments. Generation of narrow dense plasma jets in the longitudinal magnetic field of 0.6-0.8 MG was studied. Narrow plasma jets reached a length of 3-4 mm with the electron plasma density of (0.2-1.2)x10 20 cm -3 . A jet tip propagated with the velocity of 160-200 km/s. MHD simulations showed a good agreement of the dynamics of the formation of plasma jets with experiments. These jets are relevant to astrophysical jets. Simulations of K-shell spectra of Si plasma was performed for LPI in the B-field. The laser prepulse generated plasma near the laser target. A PrismSPECT model with a MeV electron beam produced by the laser was used. The spectral modelling showed the increased plasma density by a factor by 2-3 in the magnetic field. This was in agreement with the observed dynamics of the plasma plume confined by the axial magnetic field. The two-plasmon decay was studied in the 2.5-3 MG transversal magnetic fields. Strong 2-3.5 nm spectral widening and a 2-4 nm shifts of “red” and “blue” 3/2ω 0 spectral components were observed. The large shift and widening exceed the expected temperature and magnetic shift. PIC simulations are performing to clarify physics of this effect. The experimental research program for the grant is completed. New plasma effects in the MG fields were studied at the university-scale pulsed power generator. Two graduate and two undergraduate UNR and UR students carried experiments at the Zebra generator, supported and developed plasma diagnostics, provided data processing, and performed MHD simulations of LPI in the strong magnetic field. Research results are published in 9 referred papers and presented in 12 conferences. Program manager: Kramer U. Akli; Collaborators: R. C. Mancini and H. Sawada, University of Nevada, Reno (UNR); R. Betti and A. V. Maximov, University of Rochester (UR).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Triangulations using Phototheodolites

A year before a nuclear test was performed, EG&G would develop a photo plan in which a bomb’s intended point of detonation and all camera positions would be specified. During some of the earlier Operations at the Nevada Test Site, a large number of the nuclear tests were airdrops. Anticipating that the Air Force might miss the intended ground zeros (GZs), EG&G would setup phototheodolites stations at two or more locations that were ~90 degrees apart. The cameras at these stations were special cameras (referred to as phototheodolites or cinetheodolites) that were aimed at the intended ground zero. The cameras were triggered shortly after the detonation in order to capture the fireball at a very early stage. These photographs were then analyzed using a triangulation method to determine the bomb’s actual location and its height of burst (HOB).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗