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At least 703 records · Page 39

Climatology of the Vertical Profiles of Polarimetric Radar Variables and Retrieved Microphysical Parameters in Continental/Tropical MCSs and Landfalling Hurricanes

Most existing cloud models tend to overestimate the size of cloud ice particles and underestimate their concentration. This emphasizes the need to provide a reliable observational reference to optimize cloud model performance, particularly in areas of high concentration of ice at high altitudes. The dual-polarization radars give the community a unique opportunity to quantify cloud ice with a good accuracy using polarimetric radar retrievals. Here, in this study, we utilize the network of operational WSR-88D radars to build a climatology of the vertical profiles of radar variables, such as radar reflectivity Z, differential reflectivity Z DR , and specific differential phase K DP as well as the radar-retrieved vertical profiles of ice water content (IWC) above the melting layer and liquid water content below it, mean volume diameter D m , and total number concentration N t of ice and liquid particles. Such climatology was created for continental/marine mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and tropical cyclones including hurricanes. The dataset includes 13 continental MCSs, 10 marine MCSs, and 11 tropical cyclones. Separate statistics of the “background” vertical profiles and the ones associated with high IWC aloft have been obtained in the course of this study. It is shown that continental MCSs exhibit larger size of ice in lower concentration aloft compared to the marine MCSs and especially tropical cyclones/hurricanes. A combination of high KDP and low Z aloft signifies lower D m , higher N t , and often substantial IWC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inertia Estimation and Trend Analysis of the United States Power Grid Interconnections

The transition from conventional to modern power systems is causing an increase in integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This generally leads to a decrease in total system inertia, which in-turn increases the system’s rate-of-change-of-frequency (RoCoF) during disturbances. This poses a threat to the frequency stability of the system and may falsely trigger protective devices. To monitor system status and plan for integrating renewable energy sources like photovoltaic, wind, and energy storage systems, a realistic study of inertia estimation and analysis in the United States (US) over the past decade is needed. This paper uses field-measured phasor measurement unit (PMU) data collected throughout the US from 2013 to 2023 via the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye) operated by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The collected PMU frequency data is utilized to estimate the system inertia of the three US interconnections: Eastern, Western, and Texas. Various RoCoF time windows are investigated for estimating the inertia of each interconnection by maximizing the correlation coefficient between the measured RoCoF and power mismatch. The resulting inertia trends over the past decade show approximately a 6% decline in inertia in the Eastern interconnection, a 15% decline in inertia in the Western interconnection, and a 16% increase in inertia in Texas. Key insights into how inertia is changing amidst the complex energy landscape are extracted using the fuel mix trend data. This provides valuable information for future energy strategies and planning.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

OODG (OnlineOptDynaGrid) [SWR-24-07]

This is a repository for the code developed by NREL under the DynaGrid project. It is a Julia package for running a model-free real-time OPF algorithm to operate dynamic networked microgrids given network configuration results from the Maximal Load Delivery (MLD) problem in the PowerModelsONM.jl package. See Example.jl for a working example on how to use the package. Note: Julia package PowerModelsONM.jl is needed.

Poolla, Bala Kameshwar [National Renewable Energy ↗

Polarimetric Signatures in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Polarimetric radar observations from the NEXRAD WSR-88D operational radar network in the contiguous United States, routinely available since 2013, are used to reveal three prominent microphysical signatures in landfalling tropical cyclones: 1) hydrometeor size sorting within the eyewall convection, 2) vertical displacement of the melting layer within the inner core, and 3) dendritic growth layers within stratiform regions of the inner core. Size sorting signatures within eyewall convection are observed with greater frequency and prominence in more intense hurricanes, and are observed predominantly within the deep-layer environmental wind shear vector-relative quadrants that harbor the greatest frequency of deep convection (i.e., downshear and left-of-shear). Melting-layer displacements are shown that exceed 1 km in altitude compared to melting-layer altitudes in outer rainbands and are complemented by analyses of archived dropsonde data. Dendritic growth and attendant snow aggregation signatures in the inner core are found to occur more often when echo-top altitudes are low (≤10 km MSL), nearer the -15°C isotherm commonly associated with dendritic growth. These signatures, uniquely observed by polarimetric radar, provide greater insight into the physical structure and thermodynamic characteristics of tropical cyclones, which are important for improving rainfall estimation and the representation of tropical cyclones in numerical models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Opposing Hysteresis Patterns in Flow and Outflow Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams and Their Implications

Two key aggregated traffic models are the relationship between average network flow and density (known as the network or flow macroscopic fundamental diagram [flow-MFD]) and the relationship between trip completion and density (known as network exit function or the outflow-MFD [o-FMD]). The flow- and o-MFDs have been shown to be related by average network length and average trip distance under steady-state conditions. However, recent studies have demonstrated that these two relationships might have different patterns when traffic conditions are allowed to vary: the flow-MFD exhibits a clockwise hysteresis loop, while the o-MFD exhibits a counter-clockwise loop. One recent study attributes this behavior to the presence of bottlenecks within the network. The present paper demonstrates that this phenomenon may arise even without bottlenecks present and offers an alternative, but more general, explanation for these findings: a vehicle’s entire trip contributes to a network’s average flow, while only its end contributes to the trip completion rate. This lag can also be exaggerated by trips with different lengths, and it can lead to other patterns in the o-MFD such as figure-eight patterns. A simple arterial example is used to demonstrate this explanation and reveal the expected patterns, and they are also identified in real networks using empirical data. Then, simulations of a congestible ring network are used to unveil features that might increase or diminish the differences between the flow- and o-MFDs. Finally, more realistic simulations are used to confirm that these behaviors arise in real networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Design and implementation of I/O performance prediction scheme on HPC systems through large-scale log analysis

Abstract Large-scale high performance computing (HPC) systems typically consist of many thousands of CPUs and storage units used by hundreds to thousands of users simultaneously. Applications from large numbers of users have diverse characteristics, such as varying computation, communication, memory, and I/O intensity. A good understanding of the performance characteristics of each user application is important for job scheduling and resource provisioning. Among these performance characteristics, I/O performance is becoming increasingly important as data sizes rapidly increase and large-scale applications, such as simulation and model training, are widely adopted. However, predicting I/O performance is difficult because I/O systems are shared among all users and involve many layers of software and hardware stack, including the application, network interconnect, operating system, file system, and storage devices. Furthermore, updates to these layers and changes in system management policy can significantly alter the I/O behavior of applications and the entire system. To improve the prediction of the I/O performance on HPC systems, we propose integrating information from several different system logs and developing a regression-based approach to predict the I/O performance. Our proposed scheme can dynamically select the most relevant features from the log entries using various feature selection algorithms and scoring functions, and can automatically select the regression algorithm with the best accuracy for the prediction task. The evaluation results show that our proposed scheme can predict the write performance with up to 90% prediction accuracy and the read performance with up to 99% prediction accuracy using the real logs from the Cori supercomputer system at NERSC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploring the benefits of using co-packaged optics in data center and AI supercomputer networks: a simulation-based analysis [Invited]

We investigate the advantages of using co-packaged optics in next-generation data center and AI supercomputer networks. The increased escape bandwidth offered by co-packaged optics provides multiple possibilities for building 50T switches and beyond, expanding the opportunities in both the data center and supercomputing domains. Furthermore, this provides network architects with the opportunity to expand their design space and develop simplified networks with enhanced network locality properties. Co-packaging at the switch and server points enables networks with double capacity while reducing the switch count by 64% compared to state-of-the-art systems. We evaluate these concepts through discrete-event simulations using all-to-all and all-reduce traffic patterns that simulate collective communications commonly found in network-bound applications. Initially, we investigate the all-to-all overhead involved in distributing the virtual machines of the applications across multiple leaf switches and compare it to the scenario in which all VMs are placed under a single switch. Subsequently, we evaluate the performance of an AI supercomputing cluster by simulating both patterns for different message sizes, while also varying the number of participating nodes. The results suggest that networks with improved locality properties become increasingly important as the network stack operates at higher speeds; for a stack latency of 1.25 µs, placing the applications under multiple switches can result in up to 68% higher completion times than placing them under a single switch. For AI supercomputers, significant improvements are observed in the mean server throughput, reaching more than 90% for configurations involving 256 nodes and message sizes of at least 128 KiB.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Final Report for ARPA-E NODES "Real-Time Optimization and Control of Next-Generation Distribution Infrastructure" Project

The project examined next-generation power distribution systems with high levels of power- electronics-interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs) that include: renewable energy systems (RESs), energy-storage devices, electric vehicles, fuel cells, small-scale diesel generators, and controllable loads. The project developed a comprehensive distribution- network management framework that unifies real-time voltage and frequency control with network-wide energy management under an integrated framework. The aim of the project was to: i) systematically optimize network-wide operation and congruently regulate voltages and frequency in the face of high volatility induced by rapidly varying RES and uncontrolled loads; ii) facilitate high renewable integration beyond 50% on an energy basis; iii) meet power-quality requirements and operational constraints; and, iv) respect response, ramp- time, and hold-time requirements for synthetic frequency and regulating reserves via fast- and longer-term dynamic energy management.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design Philosophy for Accelerator Control Rooms

This report describes the foundational human factors principles needed to design user interfaces for accelerator control rooms. These principles are presented as recommendations for accelerator control system interface design and are illustrated with examples drawn from accelerator operations at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab). These high-level principles are intended to serve as design objectives that apply generally across all control system interfaces developed for the accelerator complex. This design philosophy document is a high-level roadmap to approach the general interface design for the accelerator complex. This philosophy applies state-of-the-art human factors principles and evidence-based design standards to an accelerator environment, which will transform the next era of accelerator interfaces as outlined by the Accelerator Controls Operations Research Network (ACORN) Project. Further work will include mapping the general design principles included in this report to more specific guidance in the form of a user interface style guide.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Upgrading Fermilab s Accelerator Control System with ACORN

The Fermilab Accelerator Complex is the largest national user facility in the Office of High Energy Physics (DOE/HEP) program and the only national user facility operating at Fermilab. Fermilab serves as the host to the Long Baseline Neutrino Facility/Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (LBNF/DUNE), the laboratory’s flagship project for neutrino science that is under construction. LBNF/DUNE will be powered by megawatt beams from an upgraded accelerator, the Proton Improvement Plan II (PIP-II) that will replace the laboratory’s aging linear accelerator with a new one based on superconducting radio-frequency cavities. The Accelerator Controls Operations Research Network (ACORN) Project will support LBNF/DUNE and PIP-II by modernizing the accelerator control system. The project is at the conceptual design phase and looking to achieve Critical Decision 1 (CD-1) later this year. The scope and structure of the project will be presented, along with an overview of how that has changed in the past year. Current design and technology choices will be shared. Specific challenges facing the project will be addressed, along with current thinking on solutions.

Roehrig, Christian [Fermilab]↗

Deriving cloud droplet number concentration from surface-based remote sensors with an emphasis on lidar measurements

Abstract. Given the importance of constraining cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) in low-level clouds, we explore two methods for retrieving Nd from surface-based remote sensing that emphasize the information content in lidar measurements. Because Nd is the zeroth moment of the droplet size distribution (DSD), and all remote sensing approaches respond to DSD moments that are at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the zeroth moment, deriving Nd from remote sensing measurements has significant uncertainty. At minimum, such algorithms require the extrapolation of information from two other measurements that respond to different moments of the DSD. Lidar, for instance, is sensitive to the second moment (cross-sectional area) of the DSD, while other measures from microwave sensors respond to higher-order moments. We develop methods using a simple lidar forward model that demonstrates that the depth to the maximum in lidar-attenuated backscatter (Rmax⁡) is strongly sensitive to Nd when some measure of the liquid water content vertical profile is given or assumed. Knowledge of Rmax⁡ to within 5 m can constrain Nd to within several tens of percent. However, operational lidar networks provide vertical resolutions of > 15 m, making a direct calculation of Nd from Rmax⁡ very uncertain. Therefore, we develop a Bayesian optimal estimation algorithm that brings additional information to the inversion such as lidar-derived extinction and radar reflectivity near the cloud top. This statistical approach provides reasonable characterizations of Nd and effective radius (re) to within approximately a factor of 2 and 30 %, respectively. By comparing surface-derived cloud properties with MODIS satellite and aircraft data collected during the MARCUS and CAPRICORN II campaigns, we demonstrate the utility of the methodology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗